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<!DOCTYPE html> <HTML lang="en"> <HEAD> <TITLE>Tax Policy and Lumpy Investment Behaviour: Evidence from China’s VAT Reform</TITLE> <meta charset="utf-8"> <meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://maxcdn.bootstrapcdn.com/bootstrap/4.0.0/css/bootstrap.min.css" integrity="sha384-Gn5384xqQ1aoWXA+058RXPxPg6fy4IWvTNh0E263XmFcJlSAwiGgFAW/dAiS6JXm" crossorigin="anonymous"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="/css/font-awesome.min.css">   <link href="/css/normalnew.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <link href="/css/pushy.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <link rel="icon" type="image.jpg" href="/favicon.ico">  <script type='text/javascript'> var captchaContainer = null; var loadCaptcha = function() { captchaContainer = grecaptcha.render('captcha_container', { 'sitekey' : '6LdQebIaAAAAACSKxvbloyrkQ_q-MqhOAGgD5PQV', 'callback' : function(response) { console.log(response); } }); }; </script> <META NAME="handle" CONTENT="RePEc:oup:restud:v:90:y:2023:i:2:p:634-674."><META NAME="description" CONTENT="Downloadable (with restrictions)! We incorporate the lumpy nature of firm-level investment into the study of how tax policy affects investment behaviour. We show that tax policies can directly impact the lumpiness of investment. Extensive-margin responses to tax policy are key to understanding the effects of different tax reforms and to designing effective stimulus policies. We illustrate these results by studying China’s 2009 VAT reform, which lowered the tax cost of investment and reduced partial irreversibility—the price gap between new and used capital. Using comprehensive tax survey data and a difference-in-differences design, we estimate a 36 relative investment increase that is driven by investment spikes. Using a dynamic investment model that fits the reduced-form effects of the reform, we show that policies that directly reduce the likelihood of firm inaction are more effective at stimulating investment."> <META NAME="keywords" CONTENT="VAT; China; Investment; Corporate taxes"> <META NAME="jel_code" CONTENT="D25; E22; H25"> <META NAME="author" CONTENT="Zhao Chen & Xian Jiang & Zhikuo Liu & Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato & Daniel Yi Xu"> <META NAME="author_shortid" CONTENT="psu476"> <META NAME="title" CONTENT="Tax Policy and Lumpy Investment Behaviour: Evidence from China’s VAT Reform"> <META NAME="download" CONTENT="1"> <META NAME="freedownload" CONTENT="0"> <META NAME="date" CONTENT="2023-02-02"> <META NAME="citation_publication_date" CONTENT="2023"> <META NAME="citation_authors" content="Zhao Chen; Xian Jiang; Zhikuo Liu; Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato; Daniel Yi Xu"> <META NAME="citation_title" content="Tax Policy and Lumpy Investment Behaviour: Evidence from China’s VAT Reform"> <META NAME="citation_abstract" content="We incorporate the lumpy nature of firm-level investment into the study of how tax policy affects investment behaviour. We show that tax policies can directly impact the lumpiness of investment. Extensive-margin responses to tax policy are key to understanding the effects of different tax reforms and to designing effective stimulus policies. We illustrate these results by studying China’s 2009 VAT reform, which lowered the tax cost of investment and reduced partial irreversibility—the price gap between new and used capital. Using comprehensive tax survey data and a difference-in-differences design, we estimate a 36 relative investment increase that is driven by investment spikes. Using a dynamic investment model that fits the reduced-form effects of the reform, we show that policies that directly reduce the likelihood of firm inaction are more effective at stimulating investment."> <META NAME="citation_publisher" content="Review of Economic Studies Ltd"> <META NAME="citation_journal_title" content="The Review of Economic Studies"> <META NAME="citation_keywords" content="VAT; China; Investment; Corporate taxes"> <META NAME="citation_abstract_html_url" content="https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/restud/v90y2023i2p634-674..html"> <META NAME="citation_abstract_pdf_url" content="https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/restud/v90y2023i2p634-674..html"> <META NAME="redif-type" content="article"> <META NAME="citation_type" content="redif-article"> <META NAME="citation_year" content="2023"> <META NAME="citation_volume" content="90"> <META NAME="citation_issue" content="2"> <META NAME="citation_firstpage" content="634"> <META NAME="citation_lastpage" content="674"> <META NAME="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image"> <META NAME="twitter:site" content="@repec_org"> <META NAME="twitter:title" content="Tax Policy and Lumpy Investment Behaviour: Evidence from China’s VAT R"> <META NAME="twitter:description" content="We incorporate the lumpy nature of firm-level investment into the study of how tax policy affects investment behaviour. 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Exten"> <META PROPERTY="og:url" content="https://ideas.repec.org//a/oup/restud/v90y2023i2p634-674..html"> <META PROPERTY="og:image" content="https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/twimage.cgi?a&oup:restud:v:90:y:2023:i:2:p:634-674."> <script type="application/ld+json"> { "@context": "http://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@id": "#periodical", "@type": "Periodical", "name": "The Review of Economic Studies", "publisher": "Review of Economic Studies Ltd", "url": "https://ideas.repec.org/s/oup/restud.html", "requiresSubscription": "false" }, { "@id": "#number", "@type": "PublicationIssue", "datePublished": "2023", "issueNumber": "2" }, { "@id": "#volume", "@type": "PublicationVolume", "volumeNumber": "90" }, { "@id": "#article", "@type": "ScholarlyArticle", "name": "Tax Policy and Lumpy Investment Behaviour: Evidence from China’s VAT Reform", "url": "https://ideas.repec.org//a/oup/restud/v90y2023i2p634-674..html", "description": "We incorporate the lumpy nature of firm-level investment into the study of how tax policy affects investment behaviour. We show that tax policies can directly impact the lumpiness of investment. Extensive-margin responses to tax policy are key to understanding the effects of different tax reforms and to designing effective stimulus policies. We illustrate these results by studying China’s 2009 VAT reform, which lowered the tax cost of investment and reduced partial irreversibility—the price gap between new and used capital. Using comprehensive tax survey data and a difference-in-differences design, we estimate a 36 relative investment increase that is driven by investment spikes. 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</script><span id="response"></span> </div> </div> <div id="content-block"> <div id="title"> <h1>Tax Policy and Lumpy Investment Behaviour: Evidence from China’s VAT Reform</h1></div> <div> <ul class="nav nav-pills" id="myTab" role="tablist"> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link active" id="author-abstract-tab" data-toggle="tab" href="#author-abstract" role="tab" aria-controls="author-abstract" aria-selected="true">Author & abstract</a> </li> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link download-tab" id="download-tab" data-toggle="tab" href="#download" role="tab" aria-controls="download" aria-selected="false">Download & other version</a> </li> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link" id="refs-tab" data-toggle="tab" href="#refs" role="tab" aria-controls="refs" aria-selected="false">6 References</a> </li> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link" id="cites-tab" data-toggle="tab" href="#cites" role="tab" aria-controls="cites" aria-selected="false">19 Citations</a> </li> <li 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</ul></div><div id="registered-authors"> <a href="https://authors.repec.org/">Registered:</a> <ul id="authorregistered"><li><a href="/f/psu476.html">Juan Carlos Suarez Serrato </A> <i class="fa fa-twitter fa-lg" style="color:#3cf"></i></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <h2 style="clear:left">Abstract</h2><div id="abstract-body">We incorporate the lumpy nature of firm-level investment into the study of how tax policy affects investment behaviour. We show that tax policies can directly impact the lumpiness of investment. Extensive-margin responses to tax policy are key to understanding the effects of different tax reforms and to designing effective stimulus policies. We illustrate these results by studying China’s 2009 VAT reform, which lowered the tax cost of investment and reduced partial irreversibility—the price gap between new and used capital. Using comprehensive tax survey data and a difference-in-differences design, we estimate a 36 relative investment increase that is driven by investment spikes. Using a dynamic investment model that fits the reduced-form effects of the reform, we show that policies that directly reduce the likelihood of firm inaction are more effective at stimulating investment.</div> <h2>Suggested Citation</h2> <div id="biblio-body"> <LI class="list-group-item downgate"> Zhao Chen & Xian Jiang & Zhikuo Liu & Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato & Daniel Yi Xu, 2023. "<B><A HREF="/a/oup/restud/v90y2023i2p634-674..html">Tax Policy and Lumpy Investment Behaviour: Evidence from China’s VAT Reform</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/oup/restud.html">The Review of Economic Studies</A>, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(2), pages 634-674. </li> Handle: <i style="word-break:break-all">RePEc:oup:restud:v:90:y:2023:i:2:p:634-674.</i> <form method="post" action="/cgi-bin/refs.cgi" enctype="multipart/form-data" target="refs" class="form-inline" role="form" style="margin-bottom: 10px;"> <input type="hidden" name="handle" value="RePEc:oup:restud:v:90:y:2023:i:2:p:634-674."> <div class="pull-left" style="padding-right: 2px;"> <input type="submit" class="btn btn-default fa" name="ref" value="Export reference "> as </div> <div class="col-xs-8" style="padding-left: 0;"> <select name="output" size="1"> <option value="0">HTML</option> <option value="0.5">HTML with abstract</option> <option value="1">plain text</option> <option value="1.5">plain text with abstract</option> <option value="2">BibTeX</option> <option value="3">RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite)</option> <option value="4">ReDIF</option> <option value="6">JSON</option> </select> </div> </form></div> </div> <div class="tab-pane fade" id="download" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="download-tab"> <h2>Download full text from publisher</h2><p></p> <FORM METHOD=GET ACTION="/cgi-bin/get_doc.pl" target="_blank"> <INPUT TYPE=HIDDEN NAME="urn" VALUE="RePEc:oup:restud:v:90:y:2023:i:2:p:634-674."><INPUT TYPE="radio" NAME="url" VALUE="http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/restud/rdac027" checked><B>File URL:</B> <span style="word-break:break-all">http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/restud/rdac027</span><BR><B>Download Restriction:</B> Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.<BR> <font size="+2" color="red">---><INPUT TYPE="SUBMIT" class="btn fa" VALUE="Download the selected file " style="color:white;background-color:#2d4e8b;"><---</font></FORM><P>As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or <A HREF="/cgi-bin/htsearch2?q=%22Tax+Policy+and+Lumpy+Investment+Behaviour++Evidence+from+China+s+VAT+Reform%22" rel="nofollow">search</A> for a different version of it. <h2>Other versions of this item:</h2> <div class="otherversion"><UL><LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Zhao Chen & Xian Jiang & Zhikuo Liu & Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato & Daniel Xu, 2019. "<B><A HREF="https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/26336.html">Tax Policy and Lumpy Investment Behavior: Evidence from China's VAT Reform</A></B>," <A HREF="https://ideas.repec.org/s/nbr/nberwo.html">NBER Working Papers</A> 26336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. </UL></div> </div> <div class="tab-pane fade" id="refs" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="refs-tab"><h2>References listed on IDEAS</h2><form method="post" action="/cgi-bin/refs.cgi" enctype="multipart/form-data" target="refs" class="form-inline" role="form" style="margin-bottom: 10px;"> <input type="hidden" name="handle" value="repec:ays:ispwps:paper1716#repec:red:sed019:903#repec:aea:aecrev:v:107:y:2017:i:1:p:217-48#repec:nbr:nberwo:21876#repec:wly:emetrp:v:89:y:2021:i:3:p:1235-1264#repec:upf:upfgen:1670#repec:aea:aejpol:v:11:y:2019:i:3:p:261-91#repec:bge:wpaper:1116#repec:eee:pubeco:v:140:y:2016:i:c:p:1-12#repec:aea:aecrev:v:108:y:2018:i:9:p:2383-2419#repec:red:sed013:608#repec:bla:jfinan:v:62:y:2007:i:4:p:1705-1745"> <div class="pull-left" style="padding-right: 2px;"> <input type="submit" class="btn btn-default fa" name="ref" value="Export references "> as </div> <div class="col-xs-8" style="padding-left: 0;"> <select name="output" size="1"> <option value="0">HTML</option> <option value="0.5">HTML with abstract</option> <option value="1">plain text</option> <option value="1.5">plain text with abstract</option> <option value="2">BibTeX</option> <option value="3">RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite)</option> <option value="4">ReDIF</option> <option value="6">JSON</option> </select> </div> </form> <ol class="list-group"><LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Andrea Lanteri, 2018. "<B><A HREF="/a/aea/aecrev/v108y2018i9p2383-2419.html">The Market for Used Capital: Endogenous Irreversibility and Reallocation over the Business Cycle</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/aea/aecrev.html">American Economic Review</A>, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2383-2419, September. <div class="otherversion"><UL> <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Andrea Lanteri, 2013. "<B><A HREF="/p/red/sed013/608.html">The Market for Used Capital: Endogenous Irreversibility and Reallocation over the Business Cycle</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/red/sed013.html">2013 Meeting Papers</A> 608, Society for Economic Dynamics. </UL></div> <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Christopher A. Hennessy & Toni M. Whited, 2007. "<B><A HREF="/a/bla/jfinan/v62y2007i4p1705-1745.html">How Costly Is External Financing? Evidence from a Structural Estimation</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/bla/jfinan.html">Journal of Finance</A>, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1705-1745, August. <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Isaac Baley & Andrés Blanco, 2021. "<B><A HREF="/a/wly/emetrp/v89y2021i3p1235-1264.html">Aggregate Dynamics in Lumpy Economies</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/wly/emetrp.html">Econometrica</A>, Econometric Society, vol. 89(3), pages 1235-1264, May. <div class="otherversion"><UL> <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Isaac Baley & Julio Blanco, 2019. "<B><A HREF="/p/red/sed019/903.html">Aggregate Dynamics in Lumpy Economies</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/red/sed019.html">2019 Meeting Papers</A> 903, Society for Economic Dynamics. <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Isaac Baley & Andrés Blanco, 2019. "<B><A HREF="/p/upf/upfgen/1670.html">Aggregate dynamics in lumpy economies</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/upf/upfgen.html">Economics Working Papers</A> 1670, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Isaac Baley & Andrés Blanco, 2019. "<B><A HREF="/p/bge/wpaper/1116.html">Aggregate Dynamics in Lumpy Economies</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/bge/wpaper.html">Working Papers</A> 1116, Barcelona School of Economics. </UL></div> <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Yongzheng Liu & Jie Mao, 2019. "<B><A HREF="/a/aea/aejpol/v11y2019i3p261-91.html">How Do Tax Incentives Affect Investment and Productivity? Firm-Level Evidence from China</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/aea/aejpol.html">American Economic Journal: Economic Policy</A>, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 261-291, August. <div class="otherversion"><UL> <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Yongzheng LiuAuthor-Email: yongzheng.liu@ruc.edu.cn & Jie Mao, 2017. "<B><A HREF="/p/ays/ispwps/paper1716.html">How do Tax Incentives Affect Investment and Productivity? Firm-Level Evidence from China</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/ays/ispwps.html">International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU</A> paper1716, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University. </UL></div> <LI class="list-group-item downgate"> Rao, Nirupama, 2016. "<B><A HREF="/a/eee/pubeco/v140y2016icp1-12.html">Do tax credits stimulate R&D spending? The effect of the R&D tax credit in its first decade</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/eee/pubeco.html">Journal of Public Economics</A>, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 1-12. <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Eric Zwick & James Mahon, 2017. "<B><A HREF="/a/aea/aecrev/v107y2017i1p217-48.html">Tax Policy and Heterogeneous Investment Behavior</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/aea/aecrev.html">American Economic Review</A>, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 217-248, January. <div class="otherversion"><UL> <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Eric Zwick & James Mahon, 2016. "<B><A HREF="/p/nbr/nberwo/21876.html">Tax Policy and Heterogeneous Investment Behavior</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/nbr/nberwo.html">NBER Working Papers</A> 21876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. </UL></div> </ol> <A TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://citec.repec.org/cgi-bin/get_data.pl?h=RePEc:oup:restud:v:90:y:2023:i:2:p:634-674.&o=all"><B>Full references</B> <i class="fa fa-external-link"></i></A> (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)<P> </div> <div class="tab-pane fade" id="cites" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="cites-tab"> <H2>Citations</H2> Citations are extracted by the <A HREF="http://citec.repec.org/">CitEc Project</A>, subscribe to its <A HREF="http://citec.repec.org/cgi-bin/rss.pl?h=RePEc:oup:restud:v:90:y:2023:i:2:p:634-674.">RSS feed</A> for this item. <form method="post" action="/cgi-bin/refs.cgi" enctype="multipart/form-data" target="refs" class="form-inline" role="form" style="margin-bottom: 10px;"> <input type="hidden" name="handle" value="repec:eee:eneeco:v:99:y:2021:i:c:s0140988321002188#repec:eee:tefoso:v:191:y:2023:i:c:s0040162523001531#repec:eee:deveco:v:150:y:2021:i:c:s0304387821000018#repec:bla:reviec:v:29:y:2021:i:4:p:802-837#repec:wly:emetrp:v:89:y:2021:i:3:p:1235-1264#repec:ris:mfplwp:0034#repec:eee:labeco:v:78:y:2022:i:c:s092753712200104x#repec:ufl:wpaper:002001#repec:upf:upfgen:1670#repec:eee:reveco:v:92:y:2024:i:c:p:835-850#repec:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:10:p:5700-:d:557782#repec:cen:wpaper:22-04#repec:eee:chieco:v:84:y:2024:i:c:s1043951x24000270#repec:bge:wpaper:1116#repec:nbr:nberwo:25754#repec:eee:jeborg:v:176:y:2020:i:c:p:1-17#repec:eee:finana:v:90:y:2023:i:c:s1057521923002570#repec:eee:jfinec:v:141:y:2021:i:3:p:1147-1170#repec:ces:ceswps:_9389#repec:eee:chieco:v:71:y:2022:i:c:s1043951x21001589#repec:eee:chieco:v:71:y:2022:i:c:s1043951x21001383#repec:red:sed019:903#repec:eee:jbfina:v:163:y:2024:i:c:s0378426624001122#repec:nbr:nberwo:29485#repec:ces:ceswps:_7929"> <div class="pull-left" style="padding-right: 2px;"> <input type="submit" class="btn btn-default fa" name="ref" value="Export citations "> as </div> <div class="col-xs-8" style="padding-left: 0;"> <select name="output" size="1"> <option value="0">HTML</option> <option value="0.5">HTML with abstract</option> <option value="1">plain text</option> <option value="1.5">plain text with abstract</option> <option value="2">BibTeX</option> <option value="3">RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite)</option> <option value="4">ReDIF</option> <option value="6">JSON</option> </select> </div> </form><P> <BR><B>Cited by:</B><ol class="list-group"><LI class="list-group-item downgate"> Geng, Yong & Liu, Wei & Li, Kai & Chen, Hanshu, 2021. 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"<B><A HREF="/a/eee/chieco/v83y2024ics1043951x23001633.html">Do firms benefit from public information services: Evidence from a tax hotline program in China</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/eee/chieco.html">China Economic Review</A>, Elsevier, vol. 83(C). <LI class="list-group-item downgate"> Görtz, Christoph & Sakellaris, Plutarchos & Tsoukalas, John D., 2023. "<B><A HREF="/a/eee/eecrev/v156y2023ics0014292123001101.html">Firms’ financing dynamics around lumpy capacity adjustments</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/eee/eecrev.html">European Economic Review</A>, Elsevier, vol. 156(C). <div class="otherversion"><UL> <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Christoph Görtz & Plutarchos Sakellaris & John D. Tsoukalas, 2022. "<B><A HREF="/p/ces/ceswps/_9977.html">Firms’ Financing Dynamics around Lumpy Capacity Adjustments</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/ces/ceswps.html">CESifo Working Paper Series</A> 9977, CESifo. </UL></div> </ol> </div> <div class="tab-pane fade" id="more" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="more-tab"> <H2> More about this item</H2> <h3>Keywords</h3> <A HREF="/cgi-bin/htsearch2?q=%22VAT%22" rel="nofollow">VAT</A>; <A HREF="/cgi-bin/htsearch2?q=%22China%22" rel="nofollow">China</A>; <A HREF="/cgi-bin/htsearch2?q=%22Investment%22" rel="nofollow">Investment</A>; <A HREF="/cgi-bin/htsearch2?q=%22Corporate+taxes%22" rel="nofollow">Corporate taxes</A>; <BR><A HREF="/cgi-bin/htsearch2?q=%22VAT%22 %22China%22 %22Investment%22 %22Corporate+taxes%22 " rel="nofollow">All these keywords</A>. <H3><A HREF="/j/">JEL</A> classification:</h3> <UL> <LI><A HREF="/j/D25.html"><B>D25</B></A> - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice: Investment, Capacity, and Financing</LI> <LI><A HREF="/j/E22.html"><B>E22</B></A> - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity</LI> <LI><A HREF="/j/H25.html"><B>H25</B></A> - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies</LI> </UL><P> <h3>Statistics</h3> <A HREF="http://logec.repec.org/scripts/paperstat.pl?h=RePEc:oup:restud:v:90:y:2023:i:2:p:634-674.">Access and download statistics</A> </div>  <div class="tab-pane fade" id="correct" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="correct-tab"> <h2>Corrections</H2> <P>All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. 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