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Mysteel解读：小麦淀粉2022年市场回顾及后市展望-我的钢铁网
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href="https://m.myagric.com/market/p-968-----070201-0--------1.html" onclick="showLog('农产品-文章详细页','大豆')" external>大豆</a></li> <li><a href="https://m.myagric.com/market/p-968-----070301-0--------1.html" onclick="showLog('农产品-文章详细页','豆粕')" external>豆粕</a></li> <li><a href="https://m.myagric.com/market/p-968-----070302-0--------1.html" onclick="showLog('农产品-文章详细页','菜粕')" external>菜粕</a></li> <li><a href="https://m.myagric.com/market/p-968-----070401-0--------1.html" onclick="showLog('农产品-文章详细页','玉米')" external>玉米</a></li> <li><a href="https://m.myagric.com/market/p-968-----070402-0--------1.html" onclick="showLog('农产品-文章详细页','小麦')" external>小麦</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="h-nav"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com" rel="nofollow" external>首页</a> > <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-4287-------------1.html" external>农产品</a> > <span>正文</span> </div> <h2 class="article-title" style="color:#000000">Mysteel解读：小麦淀粉2022年市场回顾及后市展望</h2> <p class="infor"> <span class='source'>2022-07-11 15:52</span> <span class="time" style='margin-right: 0.5rem'>来源：我的钢铁网</span> </p> <article class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="4922" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p><strong>第一部分：概述</strong></p> <p>2022年上半年小麦淀粉市场整体表现一般，一季度1、2月份，市场需求平淡，在供需双弱局势下，小麦淀粉价格偏稳运行，2月底，主要受原料上涨，加之玉米淀粉和下游需求增加利好支撑，小麦淀粉市场迎来上涨行情。3月中上旬，主要受新冠疫情突发影响，多数餐馆、学校食堂停工，下游粉丝、凉皮、河粉等食品生产受限，下游需求骤减，小麦淀粉市场交投活动放缓。二季度4月份，各地交通逐渐恢复，购销逐步恢复正常。但下游需求平淡，厂家反馈生产及出货情况不及往年。</p> <p><strong>第二部分：2022上半年市场回顾</strong></p> <p>（一）小麦淀粉价格及利润回顾</p> <p>1.国内价格走势分析</p> <p><img alt="" src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/agri/2022/07/11/083055.jpg" style="width: 500px; height: 268px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;"><em>数据来源：<a href="http://data.mysteel.com/" target="_blank">钢联数据</a></em></p> <p>2022年1-2月份，市场需求表现不佳，行业开机低位运行，供需双弱局势下，小麦淀粉价格稳中偏弱运行为主。2月底，受小麦价格大涨影响，外加玉米淀粉提振，下游及贸易商采购积极性提升，厂家走货加快，市场逐步转向供不应求，价格极速上行，价格到达2022上半年价格最高点3800元/吨。3 月 5 日，面企小麦收购价格下调，下游观望情绪高涨，厂家走货压力较大，下调价格吸引签单，后随各地疫情突发，下游生产受限，运输受阻，厂家库存压力加大，小麦淀粉价格持续下跌。本月小麦淀粉市场价格先跌后涨。4月中下旬，原料价格反弹加物流运输得到缓解，提振下游拿货积极性，下游及贸易商观望情绪减弱，询价积极，拿货意愿加强，厂家订单稍有增量，走货好转，但由于库存压力较大，涨价乏力，原料涨至高位后，厂家在生产成本压力下，拉涨小麦淀粉价格，下游“买涨不买跌”心理驱使下，厂家走货好转，库存压力缓解，但此次涨价涨幅不大，持续时间较短。4月中旬-6月，小麦淀粉价格持续缓跌。厂家谷朊粉订单较多，开机呈上升趋势，厂家淀粉逐步累库，加之原料回落，下游及贸易商观望情绪加重，外加市场进入传统淡季，下游需求疲软，厂家走货迟缓，小麦淀粉价格持续下跌，厂家成本压力下，减产、停机厂家增加。</p> <p>2.成本利润分析</p> <p><img alt="" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/agri/2022/07/11/084423.jpg" style="width: 500px; height: 266px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;"><em>数据来源：<a href="http://data.mysteel.com/" target="_blank">钢联数据</a></em></p> <p>2022年上半年，厂家利润表现不佳，平均利润约为58元/吨，较去年同期平均利润122元/吨减少64元/吨，由于原料价格一直维持高位，下游需求较往年减少，淀粉价格缺乏有力支撑。</p> <p>（二）2022上半年供需格局回顾</p> <p>1、小麦淀粉厂家开机分析</p> <p><img alt="" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/agri/2022/07/11/145135.jpg" style="width: 500px; height: 266px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;"><em>数据来源：<a href="http://data.mysteel.com/" target="_blank">钢联数据</a></em></p> <p>2022年上半年，小麦淀粉平均开机率为32.47%，同比去年40.25%下降7.78%，受3-4月份新冠疫情影响，道路运输不畅，下游生产受限，供需双弱态势下，厂家开机明显下降，3-4月份厂家平均开机率为31.70%，较去年同期43.83%下降12.13%。</p> <p>2.小麦淀粉厂家产量分析</p> <p><img alt="" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/agri/2022/07/11/152803.jpg" style="width: 500px; height: 267px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;"><em>数据来源：<a href="http://data.mysteel.com/" target="_blank">钢联数据</a></em></p> <p>2022年1-6月小麦淀粉总产量为35.6万吨，同比去年下降16.91万吨，跌幅32.2%。一方面，2021年1-4月份受玉米淀粉市场利好影响，小麦淀粉替代作用明显，厂家小麦淀粉订单量增加明显，另一方面，今年3-4月份受疫情影响，市场需求疲软，厂家生产也受影响，开机低于去年。4月底，市场购销逐步恢复，厂家生产恢复正常水平，但小麦淀粉需求较往年有所减少，产量低于往年。</p> <p>3.小麦淀粉库存分析</p> <p><img alt="" src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/agri/2022/07/11/154647.jpg" style="width: 500px; height: 268px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;"><em>数据来源：<a href="http://data.mysteel.com/" target="_blank">钢联数据</a></em></p> <p>2022年1-2月份，厂家库存较上半年同期增长2.63万吨，库存最低水平出现在第9周，库存量0.31万吨，最高水平出现在第26周，库存量为2.02万吨。</p> <p>4.小麦淀粉进口分析</p> <p><img alt="" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/agri/2022/07/11/154900.jpg" style="width: 500px; height: 263px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;"><em>数据来源：<a href="http://data.mysteel.com/" target="_blank">钢联数据</a></em></p> <p>2022年1-5月，中国小麦淀粉进口总量为714.50吨，同比减少90.11%，5月份暂无小麦淀粉进口。由上图中可以看出，2022年上半年，主要由于人民币贬值影响，小麦淀粉进口量较去年减量明显。</p> <p>2022年上半年，中国小麦淀粉的主要进口国为澳大利亚。</p> <p>5.小麦淀粉出口分析</p> <p><img alt="" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/agri/2022/09/15/094437.jpg" style="width: 500px; height: 259px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;"><em>数据来源：<a href="http://data.mysteel.com/" target="_blank">钢联数据</a></em></p> <p>2022年1-5月，中国小麦淀粉出口总量为2802.845吨，同比增加80%，4月份小麦淀粉出口量达到1015.38吨，创近三年新高。由上图中可以看出，2022年上半年，主要受人民币贬值影响，小麦淀粉出口量较去年同期增加明显。</p> <p>2022年上半年，中国小麦淀粉的主要进口国为：马来西亚、泰国、新加坡、中国香港、菲律宾等国家。</p> <p><strong>第三部分：2022下半年市场展望</strong></p> <p>（一）2022下半年供需格局展望</p> <p>1.供应趋势预测</p> <p>2022年下半年8-10月份属于小麦淀粉的需求旺季，随学生开学、粉丝行业开工，市场需求将有明显增量，但今年终端消费需求明显差于往年水平，预计下半年小麦淀粉供应将少于往年，但若玉米淀粉价格高于小麦淀粉100元左右，将会明显带动小麦淀粉出货及价格。</p> <p>2.需求趋势预测</p> <p>两广地区是小麦淀粉的主销区，小麦淀粉主要是应用在河粉等粉类食品的生产中，在2022年上半年广东省河粉生产商完成洁净车间改造后，4月25日，广西也发布了《广西鲜湿米粉生产许可审查细则（2022版）》和《食品安全地方标准 鲜湿米粉》两项细则，其中，有一条要求是将将鲜湿米粉中添加淀粉由原来的不大于45%降低到不大于10%，外加还要进行洁净车间改造，检验通过后才能进行生产，由于洁净车间费用问题，将会淘汰一部分小作坊式生产商。这将意味着，当地淀粉需求量将较以往会有一定减量。对小麦淀粉市场整体需求也将有较明显影响。</p> <p>3. 2022下半年价格行情展望</p> <p>（1）主要影响因素分析</p> <p>供应：目前行业中尚有未投产产能，关注大型厂家开工率情况、新增产能的投产、释放。</p> <p>需求：2022年上半年主要受新冠疫情影响，下游需求较弱，预计2022年下半年需求将会整体好于上半年，8-11月份是粉丝生产旺季，外加学生开学，中秋、国庆节日提振，预计市场需求量将会高于日常月份的需求。</p> <p>替代品：关注玉米淀粉下半年市场价格，如小麦淀粉能够产生替代，将很大程度带动小麦淀粉价格及出货量。</p> <p>成本：部分厂家使用天然气烘干淀粉和谷朊粉，冬季天然气价格上涨将会导致厂家生产成本增加。</p> <p>原料：今年小麦价格高于往年，后路粉价格也将整体高于去年水平。</p> <p>（2）市场价格行情展望</p> <p>目前小麦淀粉价格处于下跌阶段，厂家走货迟缓，库存逐步累积，下游及贸易商观望情绪较浓，刚需采购为主，由于受2021年11月份及2022年3月份价格大涨影响，部分贸易商今年大批量采购意愿较强，部分厂家为缓解库存压力，低于市场价格清理库存，部分贸易商拿货积极性提高，采购低价淀粉建库意愿较强，如贸易商渠道采购量过大，将影响后期厂家淀粉价格上行。部分贸易商仍观望为主，谨慎采购。根据往年市场经验来看，6-7月份属于传统市场淡季，8月初，随学生开学及粉丝行业准备生产，市场需求将有明显好转。但下游市场人士反馈，今年终端消费需求不及往年，下游厂家产量也较往年有所减少，预计淀粉价格大幅上涨可能性不大，综合以上信息，预计2022年下半年8-9月份小麦淀粉价格将持续呈现稳中上涨的趋势，10月份平稳运行后价格逐步稳中偏弱运行。</p> <p></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p style="text-align: right;"></p> <p></p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：刘梦霞 0533-7027153 </br> 资讯监督：王涛 18953357515 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> 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