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«Как выживают российские регионы в кризис». Лекция Натальи Зубаревич

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Лекция Натальи Зубаревич</h1><p class="_3PMtL" data-reactid="63">Кафедра социальной антропологии «Новой газеты» представляет</p></div><p class="Oc-XT" data-reactid="64">Фото: ТАСС</p></div></div></div><div class="_1QiAF _1sCyP" data-reactid="65"><header class="_3JLpV" data-reactid="66"><div class="U1rqf" data-reactid="67"><div class="RF0EP" data-reactid="68"><a class="_3yIjM" href="/web/20161119134202/https://www.novayagazeta.ru/economy" data-reactid="69">Экономика</a><time class="_3eSy7" datetime="2016-11-18T17:30:00.000+03:00" data-reactid="70">17:30 18 ноября 2016</time></div><h4 class="_2S-n1 _1xYwd" data-reactid="71"><div data-reactid="72"><span class="_3Ruix" data-reactid="73">«Новая газета»</span><small class="_2AcGa" data-reactid="74">редакция</small></div></h4><div class="_1O98t" data-reactid="75"><button type="button" class="_1Et4Z _3fRJZ" data-reactid="76"><span data-reactid="77"></span><ul class="_3KedU" data-reactid="78"><li class="_1d4vT" data-reactid="79"><a 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22v4.8h7.94c-.32 2.06-2.4 6.04-7.94 6.04a8.84 8.84 0 0 1 0-17.68 7.88 7.88 0 0 1 5.58 2.16l3.8-3.66A13.418 13.418 0 0 0 14 10a14 14 0 0 0 0 28c8.08 0 13.44-5.68 13.44-13.68a12.776 12.776 0 0 0-.22-2.32H14zm0 0l34 4h-6v6h-4v-6h-6v-4h6v-6h4v6h6v4z" data-reactid="128"></path></svg></a></li></ul></div><div data-code="/articles/2016/11/18/70588-kak-vyzhivayut-rossiyskie-regiony-v-krizis-lektsiya-natali-zubarevich" class="_1C9c3" data-reactid="129"><p class="dBRdu" data-reactid="130">17 ноября 2016 года Наталья Зубаревич, директор региональной программы Независимого инстиута социальной политики, стала лауреатом ежегодной премии Гайдара в номинации «экономика». Мы поздравляем уникального эксперта с заслуженной наградой и представляем вниманию читателей ее лекцию — о том, как устроен современный кризис в России, прочитанную в Университете «Новой газеты».</p><div class="_18b0- selection-range-available" data-reactid="131"><p>&mdash; Лекция называется &laquo;Как выживают российские регионы в кризис&raquo;, а подзаголовок я ей дала такой: &laquo;Федерализм и разнообразие все-таки есть&raquo;. Если понимать под &laquo;федерализмом&raquo; большое разнообразие практик, институтов, и даже тенденций развития, то он у нас, действительно, есть. Поэтому есть плохая новость &mdash; кризис. И есть хорошая новость &mdash; регионы выживают очень по-разному, и есть те, которые вполне себя хорошо чувствуют до сих пор.</p> <p>Прежде чем говорить о новом, текущем кризисе, неплохо было бы вписать его в контекст. Первый кризис был у нас тяжелейший, фатально глубокий и долгий. Это был переход от плана к рынку. Он начался в самом конце советского периода, падать мы начали активно с 1992 года и, чтоб было понятно, что такое кризис по-настоящему, &mdash; просто цифры падения за 1991 и 1995 годы: промышленное производство упало более чем в два раза, осталось 48%, доходы населения на самом дне, осталось примерно 45% от того, что было в советское время. При этом уровень безработицы был не чудовищный &mdash; 9,5%, потому что &laquo;заменой&raquo; безработицы были невыплаты заработной платы.</p> <figure class="figure figure--full"><img alt="" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20161119134202im_/https://static.novayagazeta.ru/storage/content/pictures/2523/content_2016-11-18_16-18-59.png"/> <figcaption>Контекст нынешнего кризиса</figcaption> </figure> <p>Этот <strong>первый кризис</strong> &mdash; мы его называем трансформационный &mdash; наш собственный, внутренний, <strong>мы его создали путем перехода от одного политического и экономического режима к другому</strong>.</p> <p>Что произошло тогда? Экономически наиболее болезненным этот кризис был для регионов с развитой обрабатывающей промышленностью &mdash; особенно, машиностроительной и текстильной. Они посыпались очень сильно. Осталось во многих треть, а то и менее 30 % производства.</p> <p>Вторая группа ушибленных максимально &mdash; это слаборазвитые республики. Промышленность там при первом же испытании кризисом посыпалась &mdash; осталось 25-30 % от того, что было в советское время.</p> <p>И третья группа очень интересная &mdash; это города федерального значения. Там тоже осталось меньше 30 % промышленности, но это было нормальное переформатирование от индустриального типа развития, через удар, через падение, к постепенному переходу в постиндустриальное, что свойственно для очень больших городов.</p> <p>Кто этот первый кризис заметил слабее? Если мы говорим об экономических показателях, то ситуация была гораздо мягче в нефтегазовых регионах. Потом, через два-три года, к ним потихонечку подобрались металлурги, которые в советское время работали на рынок страны, а где-то к 1995 году уже вполне освоились на глобальном рынке, благо у нас были дешевы и сырье, и рабочая сила, и экологические платежи &mdash; минимальны. Российская металлургия рванула на глобальный рынок.</p> <p>Вот это первый кризис. Он начал переходить в стагнацию в 1996 году, и тут, буквально через 2 года, нас ударил <strong>второй кризис &mdash; финансовый</strong>. Этот финансовый кризис наведенный, <strong>прежде всего, он азиатский</strong> &mdash; он потом пошел по миру. А во-вторых, мы этот кризис углубили своими руками, набрав долгов и пойдя на тяжелейший дефолт. Это сочетание привело к тому, что упали, прежде всего, доходы населения, упали они от девальвации, потому что рубль рухнул в шесть раз, доходы населения упали на четверть.</p> <p>Промышленность сильно не падала. Сразу после кризиса она начала расти. Это не был промышленный кризис, он был глобальный, он был короткий, по схеме &laquo;упал-отжался&raquo;. И в этот кризис мы получили самый высокий прирост безработицы, она доходила до 13 % &mdash; это много для Российский Федерации.</p> <p>Кто пострадал в этот второй глобальный кризис, усугубленный своими безумными совершенно бюджетными действиями? Москва. Полетели банки, многие люди потеряли работу, те, кто уже был в сервисах рыночных. Но буквально в середине 1999 года уже все начало отстраиваться. Периферия этот кризис заметила только по ценникам, в общем, ничего страшного не происходило.</p> <p><strong>Третий кризис &mdash; это кризис всем известный конца 2008 и 2009 годов. Он опять глобальный, но нас задело</strong>. Он начался с жилищных рынков в Штатах и распространился по миру. <strong>Это был серьезный банковский кризис, а потом он уже перешел в экономический</strong>. Но нас задело специфически.</p> <p>Что в этот кризис падало? Поскольку во всем мире ухудшилась конъюнктура, то есть, снизился спрос, это сильно стукнуло по российской промышленности. Потому что очень большую долю нашей промышленности занимают экспортные отрасли. И вот, во-первых, падала очень, но коротко нефть &mdash; где-то до 40 с небольшим долларов за баррель, где-то с 80. Очень плохая конъюнктура была в металлургии, продавать было тяжело. И поэтому в результате кризиса в 2009 году промышленность просела на 11% &mdash; это много. А чтобы вас испугать совсем, могу сказать, что по декабрю 2014 года, когда кризис уже начал активно разворачиваться, в некоторых металлургический регионах спад был минус 35 &mdash; минус 40%. Останавливали домны, закрыли, наконец, допотопные мартены. В металлургии этот кризис был тяжелейший, в нефтегазе &mdash; гораздо легче.</p> <p>Вторым этапом, как всегда бывает, больное российское машиностроение присоединилось, и машиностроительные регионы также показывали довольно приличный рост безработицы, хотя в целом среднегодовая безработица в 2009 году была 8 с небольшим процентов, на пике &ndash; 9%. Ну, на фоне 13% в прошлый кризис в 1998 году этот мягче.</p> <p>Этот кризис &mdash; кого он задел? Первое, я уже сказала, металлургические регионы, второе &mdash; машиностроительные регионы. Очень сильный спад спроса. Кто пролетел этот кризис как фанера над Парижем? Элементарно, два типа территорий, расположенных в разных местах, но имеющих общее свойство &mdash; относительно высоко дотационные. Республики Северного Кавказа &mdash; ничего страшного, потому что они живут, в основном, трансфертами. А трансферты регионам в этот период выросли на треть. То есть, федеральный бюджет имел денежный запас, мешок, и помогал бизнесу, банкам, крупным компаниям и регионам. В это же время были подняты пенсии, что вообще удивительно в кризис, но это было сделано. В результате, падения доходов населения практически не было, по доходам этот кризис население не заметило, по безработице умеренно заметило. Помимо слаборазвитых республик значительно лучше себя чувствует Дальний Восток, у которого тоже повышенная дотационность, плюс в это время шла подготовка к саммиту АТЭС. Строилась труба на Восток, и, в общем, по всем показателям Дальний Восток выглядел гораздо лучше страны.</p> <p>Этот кризис тоже был по схеме &laquo;упал-отжался&raquo;, но не такой сверхскоростной, как кризис 1998 года. Потому что падать мы начали поздней осенью 2008, а, в общем, восстановление, или, как это в экономике называется, рекавери, произошло уже к 2012 году.</p> <p>Чем отличается кризис, в котором мы живем сейчас, от всех предыдущих? Первое, он не имеет по своему генезису никакой связи с глобальными кризисами. Он наш внутренний. Этот кризис остановки старой модели роста &mdash; она больше не работает. Она не работает по многим причинам, одна из них &mdash; запретительно высокие неопределенности, издержки для бизнеса, который просто перестал вкладываться, несмотря на еще тогда высокие цены на нефть. Второе, этот кризис начался не с традиционного спада, он начался со стагнации, экономика перестала фактически расти где-то с 2013 года, инвестиции с 2013 года &mdash; практически ноль, промышленное производство &mdash; ноль, каждый последующий год ситуация становилась хуже. Если мы берем общие показатели по 2015 году, то все очень терпимо, промышленный спад всего лишь 3,5% &mdash; на фоне предыдущих кризисов &mdash; детский сад. Безработица остается на минимальном уровне &mdash; 5,5-5,8%. Это нормально, это когда фактически идет перемещение рабочей силы с одного места на другое. Нет у нас по факту заметного роста безработицы. Но в этот кризис начинали реально падать доходы населения. 2016 год не завершен еще, за 2 года я сказать не могу, но за 2015 год &mdash; минус 5%. Думаю, за 2 года, будет минус 10%.&nbsp; Мы все равно уходим по доходам где-то на уровень конца нулевых. Это не смертельно. Пока еще это не смертельно.</p> <p>Кто и как проходит кризис? Если брать отраслевую специфику и географическую специфику, то, когда началась острая фаза спада, все было более или менее понятно. Первыми посыпались автомобильные регионы &mdash; спрос резко сжался. А следом за ними регионы, которые производят вагоны &mdash; спрос резко сжался. Потом в целом машиностроительные регионы, но&nbsp; не все.</p> <p>Другой стороной этого кризиса были те регионы, где до сих пор промышленность чувствует себя хорошо. Это три типа. Первый &mdash; регионы, которым <strong>подфартило с антисанкциями</strong>. Все регионы со специализацией на пищевой промышленности умеренно, но растут, рынок освободился, население дорогое покупать не может, поэтому на свободном рынке российские производители и цены подняли, и потихоньку наращивают объем производства. Вторая группа регионов &mdash; <strong>новый нефтегаз</strong>. Инвестировали в Восточную Сибирь, долго инвестировали в Сахалин, Ямало-Ненецкий округ, и там продолжала расти добыча, регионы давали положительную динамику промышленного производства. И третья группа регионов &mdash; впервые за постсоветский период &mdash; это <strong>регионы военно-промышленного комплекса</strong>. У них рост продолжается два года подряд &mdash; и 2014, и 2015 и 2016 они продолжают (не все уже) расти. Эти регионы имеют больше заказы, обусловленные значительным ростом бюджетного финансирования. И должна сказать, что экспорт российских вооружений тоже начал расти.</p> <figure class="figure figure--full"><img alt="" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20161119134202im_/https://static.novayagazeta.ru/storage/content/pictures/2524/content_2016-11-18_16-33-12.png"/> <figcaption>Специфика нынешнего кризиса. Тезисы Н. Зубаревич</figcaption> </figure> <p>В чем специфика этого кризиса на фоне всех предыдущих? Еще раз &mdash; он начался как внутренний и в течение 2013 и до середины 2014 года он шел как внутренний, и только со второй половины 2014 года к нему добавились внешние факторы. Это, в первую голову, конечно, падение цен на нефть. Это бьет, прежде всего, по федеральному бюджету. Для региональных бюджетов это не так важно, они этих доходов особо не получают. Уверяю вас, что даже для нефтегазовых компаний это не так важно, потому что, чем выше цены на нефть, тем большую долю в виде ренты отнимает государство. И многим компаниям без разницы, нефть стоит 35-40 долларов за баррель, или 100-110, потому что дельта уходит в карман государства, уходит в бюджет.</p> <p>Соответственно, <strong>этот кризис был усугублен внешними факторами, первый из которых нефть, а второй &mdash; это Крым, это санкции</strong>. Но санкции работали довольно коротко, в основном, это осень и декабрь 2014 года, когда закредитованный&nbsp; российский бизнес не смог собрать денег на то, чтобы платить по кредитам, это была большая проблема, потому&nbsp; что занять на Западе дешево уже не получалось. Обвалился двукратно рубль, и это еще добавило удорожание, потому что мы &mdash; страна, которая живет на импорте.&nbsp; Вот такой кризис. В чем его специфика еще раз: внутренние факторы &mdash; это база, потом добавилось кирпичей внешних.</p> <p>Вторая специфика этого кризиса &mdash; он медленный, он очень вязкий. Третья его специфика &mdash;</p> <div class="incut"> <p>мы не понимаем, как дальше пойдет дело. Покажите мне человека, который скажет, когда выползать будем &mdash; &nbsp;я таких людей не знаю, потому что рост на 1% &mdash; ну это не рост, это слишком мало.</p> </div> <p>Следующее &mdash; что в этом кризисе специфично. Начну с чего &laquo;не&raquo; &mdash; этот кризис не промышленный по своей природе, спад маленький и небольшое число регионов относительно им затронуто. Второе &mdash; это не кризис занятости, все идет по-другому, по российской модели рынка труда, через зарплатные сокращения, но не через увеличение безработицы.</p> <p><strong>У этого кризиса три болевые точки</strong>.</p> <ul> <li>Точка первая &mdash; <strong>бюджеты</strong>. Сначала это были бюджеты регионов, на которых очень медленно стали расти доходы, потом в 2015 году добавился федеральный бюджет &mdash; это уже чистое следствие падения цен&nbsp; на нефть. И сейчас мы наблюдаем для региональных бюджетов четвертый год подряд острых проблем, для федерального &mdash; второй.</li> <li>Вторая группа проблем &mdash; это <strong>инвестиции</strong>. Они падают в нарастающем темпе с 2013 года, и света в конце тоннеля пока не видно, падение продолжается. Бизнес не инвестирует,&nbsp; он сжимает свои инвестиции.</li> <li>И третья острая болячка &mdash; это <strong>доходы населения</strong>. Их стагнация началась до Крыма. Первые уже такие помесячные&nbsp; результаты в ноль уже были в январе 2014 года. Экономика перестала расти во всех направлениях. Вот эти три проблемы &mdash; самые главные для России.</li> </ul> <p>Если прошлый кризис был залит бюджетными деньгами, то в этот кризис у нас ничего похожего нет. В 2009 году трансферты субъектам были увеличены на треть, их доля достигла 27% всех доходов от бюджетов регионов. За последние годы никаких увеличений трансфертов нет: &laquo;Ребята &mdash; сами. Адаптируйтесь&raquo;.</p> <p>А если мы возьмем 8 месяцев 2016 года, то по ним трансферты регионам сократились на 14% в номинальном&nbsp; выражении. В ситуации очень жесткой для регионов. При том, что доходы растут очень медленно, а расходные обязательства регионов довольно существенно выросли.</p> <p>Прежде чем говорить про бюджеты, я хочу сказать, к чему мы пришли в этой нефтегазовой жизни.</p> <figure class="figure figure--over-9000"><img alt="" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20161119134202im_/https://static.novayagazeta.ru/storage/content/pictures/2536/content_2016-11-18_18-55-57.png"/></figure> <p>У нас были очень большие рентные доходы федерального бюджета, и он мог их перераспределять: слабым &mdash; побольше, средним &mdash; по среднему. В результате мы выравнивали бюджетную обеспеченность &mdash; это душевая бюджетная обеспеченность рублей на человека &mdash; почти одинаково для подавляющего большинства регионов, за исключением&nbsp; семи богатых регионов, у которых и отнять нельзя. Ну, сейчас пытаются &mdash; один процентный пункт налога на прибыль, но все равно много отнять нельзя. По закону это их налоги. Это кончено, Москва, это Санкт-Петербург и четыре богатейших нефтегазовых региона: ХМАО, Ямал, Сахалин и Ненецкий округ. Ненецкий уже в прошлом, у него сейчас сыпятся доходы, у Сахалина начали сыпаться тоже, потому что эти два региона &mdash; только они два &mdash; имеют какой-то кусок нефтяной ренты, сейчас эта рента сжалась, их доходы тоже сжимаются. И наконец, еще один регион &mdash; Тюменская область, &mdash; который имеет свою ренту с автономных округов, перепадает часть, и не маленькая, налога на прибыль, которая поступает в ее бюджет из этих округов. Все. Все остальные регионы более или менее в России выровнены.</p> <p>Я эту картинку показала, чтобы вы видели, в каких исходных условиях бюджеты регионов встречают этот кризис. Идем дальше. А каковы у них при этом расходные обязательства? В среднем по регионам социальные расходы составляют 60-61 процент всех расходов, а у многих &mdash; под 70 и за 70%.<img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20161119134202im_/file:///C:\Users\web\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtmlclip1\01\clip_image008.jpg"/></p> <figure class="figure figure--over-9000"><img alt="" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20161119134202im_/https://static.novayagazeta.ru/storage/content/pictures/2537/content_2016-11-18_18-56-17.png"/></figure> <p>Есть меньше десятка регионов, у которых есть средства, чтобы тратить их на что-то другое. Или же средств может быть и немного, но они экономят на социалке изо всех сил, чтобы инвестировать в экономику.</p> <p><strong>Доля социальных расходов выросла с 2012 года в связи с необходимостью выполнять указы президента. </strong></p> <p>Эта ситуация не могла не обернуться тем, чем обернулась. Регионам пришлось выбирать или совмещать два алгоритма. Первый алгоритм &mdash; это рубка расходов. Ну, а что делать, если у вас доходы растут медленно, а&nbsp; расходы надо в соответствии с указанием увеличивать?</p> <figure class="figure figure--full"><img alt="" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20161119134202im_/https://static.novayagazeta.ru/storage/content/pictures/2527/content_2016-11-18_16-48-36.png"/></figure> <p>В 2015 году главными жертвами оптимизации были расходы на ЖКХ &mdash; они сократились очень прилично. А знаете, как сокращают расходы на ЖКХ многие муниципалитеты? Просто не платят довольно долго. И когда тебе приходят газовая сеть, электросети и говорят: а сейчас мы все поотключаем, приходится платить. Считая бюджеты регионов, я все время поражалась, почему такие американские горки &mdash; то много, то мало? Приехала в Алтайский край, спросила. Надо мной посмеялись, сказали: мы копим-копим-копим, не платим, не платим, пока нас за горло не возьмут, и тут платить приходится.</p> <div class="incut"> <p>Как всегда, страдает культура. Мастера культуры скоро станут горластее, им деваться некуда &mdash; по прошлому году минус 2,5%.</p> </div> <p>В нуле по 2015 году было образование, здравоохранению все-таки добавили. Ну и более или менее увеличили финансирование соцполитики. Уж отнимать у людей пособия &mdash; это последнее дело с точки зрения политики, не рискнули.</p> <p>Вот первая половинка 2016. Здесь-то как? А тут начал работать электоральный цикл, расходы на ЖКХ увеличили, правда, половина регионов не смогла этого сделать. Но все равно суммарно увеличили, потому что, вы сами понимаете, повышать тарифы на ЖКХ накануне выборов, &mdash; нехорошее это занятие, политически очень опасное &mdash; повысят после выборов, так спокойнее.</p> <p>Второе &mdash; на 8% увеличили пособия населению. Ну, дюжина регионов только рискнула их рубить, все остальные наращивали, перед выборами нельзя иначе. Что это значит? Губернатор стоит в раскоряку &mdash; он не понимает: и туда надо, и сюда надо. И в чем российский федерализм? Я загодя сформулирую: каждый уж вертится на своей сковородке, каждый идет своей тропой, каждый свои риски каким-то образом рассчитывает. И пока с точки зрения оптимизации получается не очень &mdash; думаю, 2017 будет пожестче, а в 2018 году &mdash; опять выборы.</p> <figure class="figure figure--over-9000"><img alt="" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20161119134202im_/https://static.novayagazeta.ru/storage/content/pictures/2538/content_2016-11-18_18-56-54.png"/></figure> <p>Три последних года 75,76, 77 регионов сидят в дефиците, он в объеме все-таки несколько уменьшился, научились немного затягивать пояса, но в целом дефицитность сохраняется. К чему это приводит? Когда у нас такой дефицит, нам где-то ж надо концы с концами сводить &mdash; и регионы идут занимать.</p> <div class="incut"> <p>Занимать можно в трех местах, но я скажу о двух главных. Первое &mdash; вы идете в банк и просите кредит, а ставка вы уже понимаете, какая по этому кредиту. А второе &mdash; вы идете в Минфин, плачете, раздираете на себе одежды и просите бюджетный кредит, который имеет шикарную ставку сейчас уже 0,2% годовых. Вы хотели бы такой кредитик взять, да? И я тоже. Но вам не достанется, как и мне.</p> </div> <p>Есть некие правила, они в целом должны выделяться по правилам, но жизнь ведь сложнее правил. И поэтому когда вы смотрите на структуру, вы видите две веселые истории. Первая веселая история &mdash; это республика Мордовия. У нее закредитованность суммарная уже превысила в 1,8 раза ее собственные доходы бюджета. Это уже как Детройт! Но, как вы видите, губернатор на месте, ни с кем ничего не происходит, все тихо-мирно, и сейчас ей все больше и больше подваливают дешевых бюджетных кредитов,. У Чукотки проблема долга есть, но он почти весь состоит из бюджетных кредитов, <strong>если вам дали бесплатных денег &mdash; как хорошо, можно сильно не заморачиваться, можно даже в банк эти деньги положить на какое-то время, вы еще на этом заработать можете немножко.</strong></p> <p>Вот так это делается. Это делается действительно неправильно, потому что раскрутил все это дело федеральный центр своими решениями, а отдуваться за них в основном пришлось регионам, и, в общем-то, это привело вдобавок к тому, что раздача бюджетных кредитов в помощь регионам, она, к сожалению, непрозрачна. Здесь очень много лоббизма и сверху, и снизу от губернаторов, и в целом система бюджетная в России разбалансирована.</p> <p>Значит ли это, что регионы умрут? Я вас умоляю, не ждите. Крутится каждый, как может. Хотя риски системы серьезные. Если взять все регионы и разложить по горизонтали &mdash; это дефицит, по вертикали &mdash; это нагрузка долговая, то вы увидите, что две трети регионов российских сидят в остро проблемной зоне, то есть у них все плохо.</p> <div class="incut"> <p>Пока федеральному бюджету, федеральным властям, удается в рамках ручного управления подкидывать в нужное время кому-то что-то, а кого-то бить по голове, требуя сократить расходы &mdash; всех, кроме Чечни. Чечня &mdash; у нее голова не для этого предназначена, по ней не бьют.</p> </div> <p>И соответственно, пока система более или менее управляется, но риски в ней накапливаются &mdash; это надо четко понимать.</p> <p>А разрешаться эти риски будут простым дедовским способом. Пример: сократить дорожное строительство нельзя по двум простым причинам:</p> <p>а) ты должен отчитаться</p> <p>и б) вы наверное, хорошо понимаете размер отката на строительстве автодорог. Ну кто ж себя обидит &mdash; таких нет. Поэтому более интенсивно потихонечку шаг за шагом будет рубиться социалка.</p> <p>Пока &mdash; нет, я подчеркиваю: по 8 месяцам все в плюсах, даже ЖКХ сейчас прилично в плюсах, и здравоохранение, и образование, и соцзащита. Но это предвыборная история, она уже закончилась, ждем новую статистику.</p> <figure class="figure figure--full"><img alt="" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20161119134202im_/https://static.novayagazeta.ru/storage/content/pictures/2529/content_2016-11-18_16-58-05.png"/></figure> <p>Есть три больных, которые до сих пор продолжают падение. Это доходы населения, реальные, то есть с учетом инфляции. Еще не завершилось падение в инвестициях &mdash; продолжается падение розничной торговли, ну и до кучи &mdash; раз инвестиции, то и строительство продолжает падать. Здесь никакой нормальности, стагнации еще не наступило &mdash; катимся под горочку, не так чтобы очень бодро, но минус 5% доходов в реальном выражении &mdash; это заметно для кошелька, я думаю, все с этим согласятся.&nbsp;</p> <p>Что происходит с инвестициями? Самый тяжкий спад был в 15 году &mdash; 8,%. Это очень многого, в этом году около 5% пока &mdash; тоже продолжение спада. Что это значит? Если вы чек-лист сделаете &mdash; &nbsp;какие регионы падают, &mdash; вы с удивлением обнаружите, что как раз падают почти все развитые, а подпрыгивают вверх инвестиции чаще всего у дистрофиков. Вот у тебя было мало денег, тебе чуток подкинули &mdash; ну арифметику все помнят: чем меньше величина, тем выше процент, если вы маленько добавили.</p> <p>&nbsp;Поэтому инвестиции падают не просто в 50 регионах &mdash; это 50 более или менее развитых регионов, в которые инвестиции раньше шли обильно. <strong>Куда продолжают идти инвестиции несмотря ни на что? Есть неубиваемые конкурентные преимущества.</strong> И бизнес &mdash; а у нас, в основном, инвестирует бизнес, потому что на долю бюджетных инвестиций сейчас уже меньше 20% приходится, он выбирает неубиваемые конкурентные преимущества. Их в России два. <strong>Первое вы знаете прекрасно &mdash; это наше все, наша нефть и наш газ. Второе неубиваемое преимущество &mdash; они рядышком &mdash; столица нашей родины Москва и Московская область</strong> &mdash; 11% + 4%, суммарно 15 %. Это преимущество агломерационного эффекта &mdash; гигантская концентрация людей, потребления и платежеспособного спроса, и бизнес, конечно, тоже инвестирует, прежде всего, там, где он видит, что получит прибыль.</p> <p>Что это означает? Это означает, что в кризис, пожалуй, даже обостряется неравенство. Потому что мы же говорим о спаде инвестиций, а когда инвестиции концентрируются вот в таких местах, как нефтегаз и столица, &mdash; это говорит о том, что остальная территория, скорее всего, отстает. Хотя, должна я вам сказать, и в &laquo;тучные годы&raquo; доля Москвы редко опускалась ниже 10%.</p> <figure class="figure figure--full"><img alt="" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20161119134202im_/https://static.novayagazeta.ru/storage/content/pictures/2541/content_2016-11-18_18-57-44.png"/></figure> <p>Идем дальше. Давайте попробуем понять, куда еще в России идут инвестиции. Доля региональных столиц во всех инвестициях в городах (устойчиво выросла примерно от 40% за постсоветский период до 60%. <strong>То есть главными получателями денег являются региональные центры. </strong>Они быстрее всего развиваются, у них больше всего возможностей, и этот тренд тоже долгоиграющий. Он не связан с политическим режимом, он связан с конкурентными преимуществами. В бизнесе дураков нет &mdash; они инвестируют туда, где они видят отдачу.</p> <p>Идем дальше. Теперь про людей &mdash; дальше уже пойдут совсем грустные вещи. Первое, о чем надо подумать, когда мы смотрим на динамику доходов: это все среднее.</p> <figure class="figure figure--full"><img alt="" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20161119134202im_/https://static.novayagazeta.ru/storage/content/pictures/2530/content_2016-11-18_17-03-31.png"/></figure> <p>Что такое современная Россия? За постсоветский период мы достигли уже латиноамериканского уровня неравенства, если считать в целом по стране<strong>. </strong></p> <div class="incut"> <p>40% населения не достигли уровня среднесоветских доходов, то есть они до сих пор живут хуже, чем в советское время.</p> </div> <p>Медиана только что подошла к советскому уровню доходов.</p> <p>И вот, если мы не понимаем всю мощь нашего неравенства, которое сформировалось сильнее всего за период экономического роста &mdash; то&nbsp; мы не поймем реакции населения на происходящее. У меня есть эта дежурная байка: не жил хорошо &mdash; и нечего привыкать. Человек выживал раньше, он продолжает выживать, но ему по барабану все остальное.</p> <p>Что произошло с доходами? В 2015 году доходы у нас упали в среднем на 5%, а по некоторым регионам на 8% и на 10%. Сейчас хуже картинка. В Поволжье, на Урале, в Сибири и на Дальнем Востоке &mdash; там падение доходов по 2016 году идет сильнее, а центр немножко приходит в себя. Но как только вы вспомните, где концентрируется российская оборонная промышленность &mdash; центр, отчасти Поволжье, и вот здесь будут регионы, где промышленность продолжает расти &mdash; видимо, это немного стимулирует и доходы. Теперь, посмотрите, здесь уже без дураков, все чисто, &mdash; это спад заработной платы по 2015 году. Он составил 10% в реальном выражении, это сильная история, мы все очень много потеряли. Географические различия &mdash; на них можно плюнуть, потому что качество этой статистики невысоко, но сама мощь ухода вниз &mdash; она, конечно, впечатляет.</p> <figure class="figure figure--over-9000"><img alt="" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20161119134202im_/https://static.novayagazeta.ru/storage/content/pictures/2539/content_2016-11-18_18-58-48.png"/></figure> <p>Теперь попробуем разобраться с тем, как наши люди реагируют на эти неприятности.</p> <p>Что происходило в декабре 2014 года, все хорошо помнят? Москва сошла с ума и вынесла не только Икею, но и всю деревню Мамыри. У Москвы были деньги, она смогла.</p> <p>Я приезжаю в Ярославль. Меня везет таксист &mdash; это было начало 2015го &mdash; и я его, конечно, спрашиваю: ну как вы пережили декабрь 2014го, много ли бегали? Ответ был такой: ну, день побегали, а на второй и уж точно на третий деньги кончились. Ярославль как-то мягче прошел это безумие. Моя коллега, поехала в Ставрополь и я ее попросила: поспрашивай, пожалуйста, как там? Она завела этот разговор на кафедре, куда приехала читать лекции. На нее немножко посмотрели и вернулись к разговору о методах засолки помидор. Понятно, да? Там и денег особо не было, чтобы устраивать эти гонки. <strong>И получилось так, что самыми неразумными были самые образованные жители Москвы, ну и в меньшей степени жители Санкт-Петербурга. С чем я вас всех и поздравляю. Поработали. </strong></p> <p>А дальше начался здравый смысл, потому что в 2015 году, когда упали доходы, они упали на 5%, а потребление, розничная торговля сократилась на 10%. Мы с запасом затянули пояса &mdash; испугались. И вот сейчас в 2016-м по первому полугодию, потому что доходы меряются кварталами, мы имеем идеальный баланс: минус 5% доходы, минус 5% потребление. Мы вышли в гармоническое состояние: сколько пива, столько песен. Так и живем. Поэтому сейчас мы адекватно адаптируемся к ситуации.</p> <p>Но все это очень печально, и это означает, что городские сервисы сжимаются, ведь торговля &mdash; это главный сервис, особенно в крупных городах. Рабочие места сжимаются, сначала повыгоняли с касс девушек из ближнего зарубежья &mdash; сейчас сидят уже россиянки, в подсобках все еще наши гастарбайтеры, потому что уж очень тяжелый и мало оплачиваемый труд.</p> <div class="incut"> <p>Суть в том, что мы наблюдаем с вами сейчас в первую очередь скукоживание экономики крупнейших городов,</p> </div> <p>потому что именно в ней наиболее развиты и сконцентрированы сервисы, прежде всего, рыночные, платные, всех возможных форм и видов, и риски в этот кризис для крупных городов, на мой взгляд, очень большие. Другое дело, что крупные города и адаптироваться могут &mdash; у них ресурсы есть, запас прочности, но риски концентрируются здесь.</p> <p>Теперь про промышленность. Сейчас на сентябрь в спаде в целом 29 регионов, в обрабатывающей промышленности &mdash; 34. Примерно 35-40%, остальные растут, но если в прошлом году я очень четко называла, какие группы регионов растут &mdash; просто по отраслевой специализации были видно, &mdash; сейчас я уже затрудняюсь сказать. Вот такая динамика: чуть подрос, потом подсел, опять подрос, опять подсел, стабильности роста нет, сказать вот, сколько регионов непрерывно растут два года подряд, &mdash; ну вот меньше половины сильно из тех, кто растут сейчас. Такая шатко-валкая динамика &mdash; это не рост, это адаптация промышленности к худшим условиям. Хотя могу сказать, что в некоторых оборонных регионах ну просто цветут все цветы &mdash; и в Брянской области, и в Тульской очень неплохо себя чувствуют, до последнего времени в Марий Эл, где ракеты делают. Но вот начал проседать Марий Эл &mdash; видимо, закончился объем тот, который был, оборонного заказа. Ждем и смотрим.</p> <figure class="figure figure--over-9000"><img alt="" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20161119134202im_/https://static.novayagazeta.ru/storage/content/pictures/2540/content_2016-11-18_18-59-06.png"/></figure> <p>Теперь последний сюжет, который я хочу разобрать &mdash; про рынок труда.</p> <p>В России есть своя модель адаптации к кризисам, которая уже сформировалась в 90-е годы. Она очень простая: в кризис летит не столько занятость, сколько заработная плата. В 90-е она была проста до безобразия &mdash; заработную плату просто по полгода не платили. И все. Ну, хочешь &mdash; ну уходи, хочешь &mdash; жди. Сейчас прокуратура на марше, вы эту историю повторять не можете. И есть абсолютно легальный формат, разрешенный трудовым законодательством, он называется &laquo;неполная занятость&raquo;, когда вас завод по автосборке отправляет гулять на три недели, вот сейчас &laquo;Форд&raquo; уходит отдыхать до посленовогодних каникул, это легально, это можно. Вы получаете голый тариф &mdash; без зарплаты вас, скорее всего, не оставят. Хотя есть другой формат &mdash; вас могут попросить подписать отпуск без сохранения содержания, это уже совсем печальная история. И если вы посмотрите, какие регионы имеют повышенные показатели неполной занятости, все абсолютно понятно. В первую голову, регионы автопрома &mdash; там была самая тяжелая ситуация, долго стояли заводы, у нас третий год подряд продолжается сокращение продаж автомобилей &mdash; оно уже очень сильное, процентов &nbsp;на 40 сократилось производство, потому что продаж меньше. Поэтому в этих регионах используется инструмент неполной занятости.</p> <p>Российская модель кризиса &mdash; это снижение издержек бизнеса не за счет увольнения, а за счет снижения заработной платы. Это вообще штука довольно нечастая, хотя у немцев так тоже бывало на автопроме, но обычно в развитых странах увольняют, чтобы сократить издержки.</p> <p>У нас люди сидят как приклеенные пятой точкой к своим рабочим местам. Почему? То, что это устраивает власть, объяснять не надо &mdash; безработицы нет, протестов нет, все тихо-спокойно. Бизнес это тоже устраивает &mdash; вам как &mdash; тушкой, чучелкой ли понижать издержки &mdash; все равно же. Главное &mdash; что вы экономите в кризис. Почему это людей устраивает?</p> <div class="incut"> <p>А потому что наш российский человек &mdash; это человек смертельно боящийся неопределенности: я типа работаю, мне типа платят.</p> </div> <p>Вы помните эту присказку: лишь бы не было войны. А к остальному как-то мы адаптируемся. Это консенсус власти, бизнеса и населения. К этому вот готовы и согласны на это все.</p> <p>Есть локальные какие-то проблемы? Есть. Есть небольшие города, если я вам назову Миньяр, Сим, Нязепетровск &mdash; &nbsp;вы слов таких не слышали, это моногорода, где безработица даже зарегистрированная будет 5-6%, но они по 15-20 тысяч человек, что вы про них знаете. Выплатят пособия, понемножечку порешают &mdash; это то, что можно решать на месте, это локальные проблемы.</p> <p>Есть второй фактор, и этот второй фактор смягчения ситуации на рынке труда: называется &mdash; российская половозрастная пирамида. На рынок труда сейчас выходит поколение 90-х годов рождения &mdash; оно крошечное. А уходит и будет уходить дальше с рыка труда мое поколение &mdash; 50-е, бэби-бум, нас много очень. Конечно, мы не хотим уходить с рынка труда &mdash; на пенсию что ли? Но уволить людей пенсионного возраста &mdash; не мне вам объяснять &mdash; на порядок легче, чем трудоспособных. Тут поле для маневра намного больше. И это очень важный смягчающий фактор кризиса.</p> <div class="incut"> <p>Мы довольно скоро вернемся в ситуацию, когда у нас будет усиленно сокращаться население. Потому&nbsp; что мы опять начнем ускоренно стареть. Не в знак протеста против политического режима. Просто рожать будет крошечное поколение 90-х годов рождения, а помирать будут большие поколения, опять начнется ускорение депопуляции.</p> </div> <p>С одной стороны это благо для тех, кому нужно платить пособия на семью с ребенком, а с другой стороны &mdash; а что с пенсионным фондом будем делать, нас же насколько больше, мы ж какие запросы предъявим государству? А у него, как всегда, &laquo;нету денег&raquo;.</p> <p>Может ли население реагировать на кризис мобильностью? Да. Если к этому есть хоть какие-то институциональные предпосылки, если барьеры не сильно жесткие. В кризисных условиях есть две разных тренда: кто-то усилит мобильность и в Москву поедет дополнительное число людей, ищущих трудоустройство, а кто-то наоборот снизит резко притязания, раскопает больше картошки и осядет в своем относительно небольшом городе. Объем миграции в целом немного сократился, так что, скорее всего, часть наших россиян будет за картошку, огород и тихое сидение с затянутым поясом.</p> <figure class="figure figure--full"><img alt="" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20161119134202im_/https://static.novayagazeta.ru/storage/content/pictures/2533/content_2016-11-18_17-45-48.png"/></figure> <p>Чего еще надо ожидать и что продолжается? Еще одна модель адаптации. Это та самая &laquo;серая&raquo; экономика, неформальная занятость, в которой уже в России сидят как минимум 20, а по честным оценкам &mdash; 25 миллионов человек. И &laquo;вилка&raquo; колеблется количество этих занятых где-то в районе 17-18, а то и 19 миллионов человек. Самые отчаянные говорят уже 20. Это означает, что наш рынок труда адаптируется не только к кризису, но и ко всему еще и через расширение зоны неформальной занятости. Это не криминал. Это люди, которые не платят налоги.</p> <p>Вы обратили внимание, сколько сейчас шума по поводу платежей за неработающее население, медстрах&hellip; Ну так, ясен перец, если их там уже почти каждый четвертый работник! Я с трудом представляю&hellip; Теневой извозчик. Или женщина, сидящая с пожилыми москвичами, приехавшая из Ставропольского края. Как они пойдут дружно в налоговую, себя зарегистрируют и сразу заплатят вот эти 20 тысяч, у меня в голове не укладывается, &mdash; особенно в кризис, когда дохода нет. Но государство считает, что они должны. Эти люди по факту вытеснены в &laquo;серую&raquo; экономику, потому что в белой экономике не нашлось свободных мест. А некоторые и не хотят, потому что издержки нахождения в &laquo;белой&raquo; экономике в виде налоговых выплат для них выше, чем издержки сидения в &laquo;серой&raquo; экономике.</p> <p>Это очень мощная альтернативная зона. Люди, которые там сидят, вот честное пионерское, им про то, что вы читаете, слушаете, о чем волнуетесь, задумываетесь, &mdash; им это все, как на Марсе. Им ежедневная задача &mdash; выжить, найти работу, найти клиента. И вот наши интеллигентские заморочки им глубоко безразличны. У них просто другой тип жизни.</p> <p>Я все время пытаюсь объяснить, смотрите, 40% живут еще хуже, чем в советское время. Около 20 миллионов сидят в неформале. Вы чего от этой страны хотите? Вы за что этим людям предъявляете гамбургский счет? Они просто живут другой жизнью.</p> <p>Что будет дальше, что предстоит? Судя по всему, сжатие доходов еще не закончилось. Оно будет замедляться, но процесс продолжается. Судя по всему, инвестиционный спад тоже будет продолжаться, если государство не раскрутит новую спираль больших и как всегда неэффективных вложений из бюджета. Это больший риск, чем просто медленное сжатие инвестиций. Дальше &mdash; дестабилизация бюджетов на марше, там ничего не меняется, ситуация заморожена, и у меня есть ощущение, что пока еще ресурсов властей достаточно, чтобы в режиме ручного управления ситуацию контролировать и не допускать взрыва. Пока получается кнутом и пряником как-то разруливать.</p> <p>Дальше, я вам уже сказала, первый риск географический &mdash; риски крупнейших городов. В промышленных городах ситуация может ухудшаться, и кое-где это происходит, но это локальные риски. А вот во всех крупнейших городах, городах-региональных центрах ситуация ухудшилась заметно для всего населения, но и самое главное &mdash; для той ее части, которую мы так несколько пафосно, конечно, обозвали &laquo;средним классом&raquo;. Уж он-то эти риски почувствовал, потому что у него меняется образ жизни. Он же пытался развиваться, пытался инвестировать в отдых, в образование детей. Сейчас эти возможности сжимаются. И психологически этот кризис самый сильный для среднего класса. У него рушится то, что он отстроил &mdash; развивающий образ жизни отчасти.</p> <p>Дальше что будет происходить? Вот это уже касается всех, и больнее это для бедных. Государство будет экономить на нас с вами. Нефть уже закончилось, надо находить (и он уже найден) другой источник для бюджета. Это мы, это наши налоги, это наши имущественные платежи, это наши капитальные ремонты. Вот сейчас идет оптимизация социальных пособий, но с явно фискальной целью. Регионы сами должны будут выбирать, как пройти между Сциллой и Харибдой, и денег подэкономить, и людей не вывести на улицы. Да? Вот это будет большая для них задача.</p> <p>Риски промышленности для меня, знаете, где лежат? Когда и если федеральный бюджет просто не будет делать то, что он продолжает делать сейчас&hellip; Ну просто вам две цифры: доля расходов на национальную оборону в бюджете федеральном прошлого года была 20,4% и плюс еще 12,5% на нацбезопасность. Итого &mdash; треть! В этом году доля расходов на оборону будет 22%. Ну вот так. Но это не может продолжаться бесконечно. Потому что в прошлом году дефицит федерального бюджета составил 2 трлн. рублей. И в этом году будет примерно такая же история. Ну, начнем печатать деньги, разгоним инфляцию &mdash; и опять будет обесцениваться зарплата, и пособия, и пенсии. Все равно придется эти расходы ужимать.</p> <p>Для меня риски промышленного кризиса, в первую голову, в перспективе, не сейчас, лежат в оборонной промышленности. Когда с деньгами будет плохо, заводы, которые сейчас работают аж в три смены, лихорадить начнет по-настоящему. Вот тогда посмотрим. Потому что не надо было так раскручивать. А теперь сжимать это все очень тяжело. Хотя сама оборонка, если она продается, это не так плохо. У нас действительно выросли заказы. Тогда у меня детский вопрос: простите, а чего тогда так много бюджетных денег туда угрохивается, если вы такие рыночные, если вы так продаетесь, то где деньги, где ваш доход? Это первое, а вторая вещь, которая связана со всей оборонной промышленностью&hellip; Как бы это вежливо сказать? Ну переоцениваем мы важность фактора модернизации оборонного комплекса, исходя из нынешней парадигмы &laquo;Кругом враги&raquo;. Можно было бы это делать помедленнее. Видите, как я аккуратно формулирую фразу? Потому что не все с этим согласны, но мне так кажется.</p> <figure class="figure figure--full"><img alt="" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20161119134202im_/https://static.novayagazeta.ru/storage/content/pictures/2534/content_2016-11-18_17-24-16.png"/></figure> <p>Как мы будем выживать в предложенных обстоятельствах? Очень многое зависит от того, как сейчас будут вести себя власти. Я отбрасываю все то, что мы наблюдаем, все это легкое безумие, я стараюсь сейчас говорить о рациональности.</p> <p>Если власти смогут максимизировать <strong>опору на конкурентные, реальные преимущества регионов</strong>, что-то будет получаться. Потому что даже в кризисных условиях преимущества Москвы очевидны, они работают &mdash; это гигантское скопление, огромный рынок труда, огромное разнообразие фирм, продукции, это все равно работает &mdash; при Иванове, Петрове, Сидорове. Это нельзя убить, это рационально.</p> <p>Если мы будем <strong>разумно использовать наше нефтегазовое преимущество</strong>. Я не боюсь этой сырьевой ориентации. Проблема же не в ней, проблема в том, как эта рента используется, на что. У норвежцев та же рента, но при других институтах она используется совершенно иначе. Но если к нам начинают заходить большие компании с современными технологиями, с современными практиками управления &mdash; они будут менять наш нефтегазовый рынок. Я всегда говорю: вот вы представляете разговор о гендерном неравенстве в &laquo;Роснефти&raquo; или в &laquo;Газпроме&raquo;? Ну все всё поняли, да? Конечно, это мужские отрасли. Но управленческие компании, в менеджерах нефтегазовых, они не моногендерные.</p> <p>Какой у нас будет бюджетная политика, как быстро мы очухаемся? Первое, что надо делать &mdash; <strong>отложить исполнение майских указов</strong>. Ну мы не в состоянии их сейчас выполнять, надо честно это признать. Сугубо политические приоритеты &mdash; они экономику очень сильно ломают. Если их поубавится, мы как-то будем выруливать. Потому что не бывает вечных кризисов, вечных стагнаций.</p> <figure class="figure figure--full"><img alt="" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20161119134202im_/https://static.novayagazeta.ru/storage/content/pictures/2535/content_2016-11-18_17-24-27.png"/></figure> <p>Но пока сумма разумного принятия решений так мала, что я, кроме стагнации, на ближайшие несколько лет никакого особого выхода не вижу. Так что наращивайте ваши персональные конкурентные преимущества и не работайте только в режиме &laquo;затягивания поясов&raquo;. Это хорошо для фигуры, но вредно для здоровья. Адаптироваться надо не только через ухудшающие стратегии, вполне могут быть альтернативные.</p> <p>Удачи всем, спасибо!</p> <p><strong>Наталья Зубаревич</strong></p> </div><div class="_3DCic" data-reactid="132"><h5 class="_1qpg1" data-reactid="133">Теги: </h5><span class="_3ZZkR" data-reactid="134"><a class="_2Aynr" href="/web/20161119134202/https://www.novayagazeta.ru/tags/krizis" data-reactid="135">кризис</a></span><span class="_3ZZkR" data-reactid="136"><!-- react-text: 137 -->, <!-- /react-text --><a class="_2Aynr" href="/web/20161119134202/https://www.novayagazeta.ru/tags/kak-eto-ustroeno" data-reactid="138">как это устроено</a></span><span class="_3ZZkR" data-reactid="139"><!-- react-text: 140 -->, <!-- /react-text --><a class="_2Aynr" href="/web/20161119134202/https://www.novayagazeta.ru/tags/chto-delat" data-reactid="141">что делать</a></span><span class="_3ZZkR" data-reactid="142"><!-- react-text: 143 -->, <!-- /react-text --><a class="_2Aynr" 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