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data-pb-im-config="{"urls":["https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_100%2C$height_100/t_crop_fill%2Cq_auto:best%2Cfl_any_format/43c19acf7e1c3f3903d694d910a6c94455b26374"," https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_200%2C$height_200/t_crop_fill%2Cq_auto:best%2Cfl_any_format/43c19acf7e1c3f3903d694d910a6c94455b26374 2x"],"width":100,"aspectRatio":1,"type":"square1x1"}" width="100" height="100"/></picture></figure><h1 class="_4586f4e03f8e3136c57a">Trump is all power with no grand strategy</h1><p class="cf7e68400d4a2438fd54">The US president-elect’s delight in being unpredictable may end up dissipating US power rather than strengthening it. Australians may come to regret that.</p><span class="_3bd8c88d1706a9f75b41"><span class="e7555d2b8069d2639f43"><strong><a class="ecb5120d4f290403b165" data-testid="AuthorURL" href="/by/peter-varghese-p4yw2n">Peter Varghese</a></strong></span><span class="_75c5429bb67affdddf00">Contributor</span></span></header><div class="_47207bf25e6443e48904"><section class="_7302278d284fb75d742b"><div class="_4d22830be8e035459d36" data-testid="ArticleTimestamp"><time data-testid="ArticleTimestamp-time">Nov 22, 2024 – 11.23am</time></div><div class="_2a6dc840ff6bc204ff53" data-testid="ArticleTools"><div class="_9f146e4c46884f388d0e"><button aria-describedby="articleToolsLoginTooltip" class="_13dba38c2689588db954 _7cd6d3a619318b4274cf" data-click-outside-ignore="true" data-testid="SaveArticle-button" type="button"><span class="_82522fbabfe2be1d6f63"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" class="dd6db77aa2c85e94be85" focusable="false" height="1em" aria-hidden="true" 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Over that time the contours have changed but every administration has sought to articulate US interests with broad strokes which blend interests and values.</p><p>Will Donald Trump follow in the same tradition?</p><div class="_398b6c5e39701f15a1a2">Loading...<figure></figure><figure></figure><figure></figure><figure></figure></div><div></div></div><div class="_2e1de52e69e1d969aea3"><div class="a368146c81ee0410b134"><span class="_1a6f5d6fad2874362309" data-testid="AuthorCard"><span><strong><a class="d1dba0c3091a3c30ebd6" data-testid="AuthorURL" href="/by/peter-varghese-p4yw2n">Peter Varghese</a></strong> is the chancellor of the University of Queensland and a former secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.</span></span></div></div><div class="a3b28a4f67a674b57863" data-testid="ArticleFooter"><div class="_9e5858bb5e9aa47354b4"><div class="_9f146e4c46884f388d0e"><button aria-describedby="articleFooterLoginTooltip" class="_13dba38c2689588db954 _7cd6d3a619318b4274cf" 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affairs & security"],"categoryId":129,"asset":{"about":"The US president-elect’s delight in being unpredictable may end up dissipating US power rather than strengthening it. Australians may come to regret that.","allowComments":false,"body":"\u003Cp\u003EFor the past eight decades grand strategy has been the rhetorical centre of US strategic policy. Over that time the contours have changed but every administration has sought to articulate US interests with broad strokes which blend interests and values.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWill Donald Trump follow in the same tradition?\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"e60cace95a11add2ff5a4778da9ac99594cbc9b0\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E\u003Cp\u003ETrump makes \u003Cx-placeholder id=\"164d08559ae42d280de4271bf79b42ed500eb5d4\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E Usually the resort of the weak, he is deploying it to convey strength.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EKeeping your enemies guessing, it is now said, has a deterrent effect, and these days genuflecting at the altar of deterrence is the ultimate expression of faith in peace through strength.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe trouble with an unpredictable superpower is that the unpredictable can easily become the unreliable.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EInstinctive power\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\u003Cp\u003EPower detached from coherence is less a demonstration of strength than a recipe for chaos at worst or haphazard strategy at best. Far from strengthening US power, it is more likely to dissipate it.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBy making a virtue of unpredictability Trump is also signalling that the US has no grand strategy because grand strategy is anchored in clear objectives, values and priorities.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIt cannot long survive if its animating feature is to enshrine the unpredictable.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESo is the US under Trump now poised to abandon decades of grand strategy built around the retention of strategic primacy and the related denial of pre-eminence to any peer competitor, especially one which seeks to capture the commanding strategic heights of Eurasia?\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003ETrump himself is unlikely to see it this way. \u003Cx-placeholder id=\"d14eaf7d02492780ff4d552d1161dd16661bcccd\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E and the leverage needed to pull them off.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBut while those around him in his first term as president drafted a National Security Strategy which doubled down on the retention of US strategic primacy, Trump never seemed much interested in grand strategy or in owning the policy that bore his name.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003ETrump understands power and he likes to exercise it. But his is an instinctive understanding of power. He has little time for the theoretical underpinnings of grand strategy.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"6bfda89155105032ef451af8861a672b72dca97f\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWill this become a point of friction between the president and the national security hawks who are expected to dominate his administration? The latter, especially those in sub cabinet positions, are likely to number many true believers in US grand strategy in the service of global primacy, especially primacy over China.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003ETrump 1.0 was not the first person to sit in the Oval Office with a shallow understanding of grand strategy. But he may be one of the few with little interest in expanding it in office.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003ENor is he easily located within the various traditions of US strategic policy, although his instincts do have historical precedents among American Firsters and selective isolationists.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EFocus on interests\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\u003Cp\u003ECould this prove to be an asset for Trump? Does it free him to set out on a very different path including abandoning global primacy as the north star of US strategic policy?\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAt first glance this seems unlikely. Trump’s focus on leverage may lead him to conclude that global primacy is the ultimate generator and guarantor of leverage. If you are the preeminent power you have more leverage than any other single power.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBut this raises the question of primacy for what purpose? Historically, US grand strategy has portrayed primacy as a means to a larger end: an expression of exceptionalism, the promotion of democracy, the advancement of values and the light on the hill.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003ETrump has never shown much interest in these higher purposes, and he is dismissive of the post-war multilateral machinery designed by the US.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIf foreign policy is about the advancement of interests and values, Trump’s focus is squarely on the former. This may disappoint those who wish to frame the future as a battle between democracy and autocracy and who are busy conjuring up an\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"59a45a58159c91b6f9b924712e2631f0df61b856\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBut the focus on interests over the liberal order may be welcomed by others, including in the so called Global South, who tend to equate exceptionalism with arrogance and values as the wrapping paper for the exercise of raw power.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003ETrump’s return to the White House marks him as a revolutionary figure, not the assumed aberration of the first term. He is a testament to the US as a country born in revolution and with a remarkable capacity to reinvent itself.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe reinvention will be most dramatic in domestic policy but in foreign policy he may turn out to be the unlikely president who shifted the US from an obsession with primacy to a more narrowly defined focus on advancing America’s interests where he judges it matters, and ensuring that it has the leverage to do so; an America with unmatched military reach and financial clout marshalled primarily in the service of American economic interests not values.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESome may say the exercise of American power was ever thus. But what made the US so distinctive in foreign policy since World War II was its expansive conviction that the creation of a liberal international order served its interests.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIt was not altruism, and it was always selective and sometimes hypocritical. But it was a conception of national interest which was anchored in values that resonated with Australians.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIf Trump takes the US back to a narrow view of US interests where a liberal order is seen as nothing more than a naïve distraction from the cold calculation of what’s in it for America, we may live to regret the passing of the old America.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"1758d864a0dbe4c32592bccf0dfc792865e8aacb\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"0ada8e553c7e212d829ca1c1c898f6b3f239442d\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"edeed434837b33c42ecdc7855d2c3c3931f928e9\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E","bodyPlaceholders":{"0ada8e553c7e212d829ca1c1c898f6b3f239442d":{"data":{"id":"p5jo93"},"type":"relatedStory"},"164d08559ae42d280de4271bf79b42ed500eb5d4":{"data":{"id":"p5knlb","newTab":false,"noFollow":false,"text":"a virtue of being unpredictable."},"type":"linkArticle"},"1758d864a0dbe4c32592bccf0dfc792865e8aacb":{"data":{"body":"\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli aria-level=\"1\"\u003EWe are always interested to hear your views on current topics. \u003C\u002Fli\u003E\u003Cli aria-level=\"1\"\u003EGuidelines for how to write an opinion article are \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.afr.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fmedia-and-marketing\u002Fhow-to-write-an-opinion-article-for-the-afr-20231025-p5eey4\"\u003Ehere\u003C\u002Fa\u003E. \u003C\u002Fli\u003E\u003Cli aria-level=\"1\"\u003EGuidelines for how to write a letter to the editor are \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.afr.com\u002Fcontact-us\u002Fletters-to-the-editor\"\u003Ehere\u003C\u002Fa\u003E. Please send your letter to edletters@afr.com.au\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\u003C\u002Ful\u003E","title":"Have your say"},"type":"callout"},"59a45a58159c91b6f9b924712e2631f0df61b856":{"data":{"id":"p5kcqa","newTab":false,"noFollow":false,"text":" axis of chaos uniting Russia, China, Iran and North Korea"},"type":"linkArticle"},"6bfda89155105032ef451af8861a672b72dca97f":{"data":{"markup":"\u003Cp\u003ETrump’s return to the White House marks him as a revolutionary figure, not the assumed aberration of the first term.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E","quote":"Trump’s return to the White House marks him as a revolutionary figure, not the assumed aberration of the first term.","quoteByline":"","type":"pullquote"},"type":"quote"},"d14eaf7d02492780ff4d552d1161dd16661bcccd":{"data":{"id":"p5kiaq","newTab":false,"noFollow":false,"text":"He understands deals"},"type":"linkArticle"},"e60cace95a11add2ff5a4778da9ac99594cbc9b0":{"data":{"altText":"","aspect":1.5,"autoCrop":false,"caption":"Donald Trump is a testament to the US as a country born in revolution and with a remarkable capacity to reinvent itself.","credit":"AP ","cropWidth":756,"fileName":"2f24a759b10480d3954a62ff477ae7ccd351cd74","id":"2f24a759b10480d3954a62ff477ae7ccd351cd74","offsetX":0,"offsetY":0,"originalHeight":null,"originalWidth":null,"source":"AP","zoom":0.126},"type":"image"},"edeed434837b33c42ecdc7855d2c3c3931f928e9":{"data":{"id":"p5kqui"},"type":"relatedStory"}},"byline":"Peter Varghese","closeComments":false,"headlines":{"headline":"Trump is all power with no grand strategy"},"intro":"The US president-elect’s delight in being unpredictable may end up dissipating US power rather than strengthening it. Australians may come to regret that.","wordCount":906},"dates":{"created":"2024-11-19T21:52:46Z","firstPublished":"2024-11-22T00:23:03Z","imported":"2024-11-22T00:23:03.655955348Z","modified":"2024-11-22T00:23:03Z","published":"2024-11-22T00:23:03Z","saved":"2024-11-22T00:23:03Z"},"editingState":"ready","id":"p5ks20","featuredImages":{"landscape16x9":{"data":{"aspect":1.777778,"caption":"Donald Trump back in the Oval Office may not bring the results we expect. ","credit":"AP ","cropWidth":1059,"fileName":"2f24a759b10480d3954a62ff477ae7ccd351cd74","id":"2f24a759b10480d3954a62ff477ae7ccd351cd74","offsetX":0,"offsetY":62,"source":"AP","zoom":0.1765}},"landscape3x2":{"data":{"aspect":1.5,"caption":"Donald Trump back in the Oval Office may not bring the results we expect. 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