Emissions Scenarios

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">  <html> <head><script type="text/javascript" src="https://web-static.archive.org/_static/js/bundle-playback.js?v=7YQSqjSh" charset="utf-8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://web-static.archive.org/_static/js/wombat.js?v=txqj7nKC" charset="utf-8"></script> <script>window.RufflePlayer=window.RufflePlayer||{};window.RufflePlayer.config={"autoplay":"on","unmuteOverlay":"hidden"};</script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://web-static.archive.org/_static/js/ruffle/ruffle.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript"> __wm.init("https://web.archive.org/web"); __wm.wombat("http://www.ipcc.ch:80/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp=0","20090928102740","https://web.archive.org/","web","https://web-static.archive.org/_static/", "1254133660"); </script> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="https://web-static.archive.org/_static/css/banner-styles.css?v=p7PEIJWi" /> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="https://web-static.archive.org/_static/css/iconochive.css?v=3PDvdIFv" />  <title>Emissions Scenarios</title> <script src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740js_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Home_files/SpryEffects.js" type="text/javascript"></script> <script src="/web/20090928102740js_/http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/js/sres-emission.js"></script> <style> ul { list-style-type: square; list-style-image: none; list-style-position: inside; color:#3175b6 } </style> <script type="text/javascript">  </script>  <script language="JavaScript">  </script> <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1"> <meta content=" " name="description"> <meta content=" " name="keywords"> <link href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740cs_/http://www.ipcc.ch/styles/style.css" type="text/css" rel="stylesheet"> <link href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740cs_/http://www.ipcc.ch/styles/publications and data.css" type="text/css" rel="stylesheet"> <link href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740cs_/http://www.ipcc.ch/styles/7g0.css" type="text/css" rel="stylesheet"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740cs_/http://www.ipcc.ch/styles/ipccrep.css" type="text/css"> <meta content="MSHTML 6.00.6000.16735" name="GENERATOR"></head> <body text="#000000" bgcolor="#ffffff" leftmargin="0" topmargin="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0"> <form action="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740/http://www.ipcc.ch/sphider/search.php" method="get" target="_blank" name="ChapterJumpForm"> <div align="center"> <table height="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="1002" border="0"> <tr> <td valign="top" colspan="4" height="82"><img height="82" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Home_files/Banner_01.jpg" width="1002"/></td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" colspan="3" height="18"> <table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" border="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td bgcolor="#b5cbe0" width="598" height="36"><img src="/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Home_files/Banner_02.jpg" width="598" height="36"/></td> <td align="left" background="/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Home_files/Banner_03.jpg" valign="middle"> <select class="field" onchange="ChangeUrl(this);" size="1" width="50" id="list_languages"> <option selected>Languages</option> <option value="http://www.ipcc.ch/home_languages_main.htm">Main page</option> <option value="http://www.ipcc.ch/home_languages_main_arabic.htm">Arabic</option> <option value="http://www.ipcc.ch/home_languages_main_chinese.htm">Chinese</option> <option value="http://www.ipcc.ch/home_languages_main_french.htm">French</option> <option value="http://www.ipcc.ch/home_languages_main_russian.htm">Russian</option> <option value="http://www.ipcc.ch/home_languages_main_spanish.htm">Spanish</option> </select>       <select onchange="ChangeUrl(this);" size="1" id="ListeWG" style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; width: 123px;"> <option value="#" selected>IPCC web pages</option> <option value="http://www.ipcc.ch">IPCC Home</option> <option value="http://www.ipcc-wg1.unibe.ch">Working Group I</option> <option value="http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov">Working Group II</option> <option value="http://www.ipcc-wg3.de">Working Group III</option> <option value="http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp">NGGIP</option> <option value="../working_groups/working_groups_tgica_and_ddc.htm">Data Distribution Centre</option> </select>     <input type="text" name="query" id="query" size="8" value="" columns="2" autocomplete="off" delay="1500" class="field">   <input type="submit" value="Search" class="field"> <input type="hidden" name="search" value="1"> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </td>  <td width="1" background="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Home_files/line.gif" valign="top" rowspan="4"> <img height="1" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Home_files/pixel.gif" width="1"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" bgcolor="#5492CD"> <table height="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" border="1" style="border-collapse:collapse; border-style:none"> <tbody> <tr> <td valign="top" align="center"> <table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="220" border="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td class="menunav" valign="top" width="9" bgcolor="#990002"> <img height="21" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Home_files/pixel.gif" width="9"/> </td> <td class="nav"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740/http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm">Home</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="menunav" valign="top" width="9" bgcolor="#C22009"> <img height="21" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Home_files/pixel.gif" width="9"> </td> <td class="nav"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740/http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization.htm">Organization</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="menunav" valign="top" width="9" bgcolor="#E00000"> <img height="21" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Home_files/pixel.gif" width="9"> </td> <td class="nav"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740/http://www.ipcc.ch/working_groups/working_groups.htm">Working Groups / Task Force</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="menunav" valign="top" width="9" bgcolor="#EF550F"><img height="21" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Home_files/pixel.gif" width="9"></td> <td class="nav"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740/http://www.ipcc.ch/activities/activities.htm">Activities</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="menunav" valign="top" width="9" bgcolor="#FECB00"><img height="21" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Home_files/pixel.gif" width="9"></td> <td class="nav"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740/http://www.ipcc.ch/calendar_of_meetingscalendar_of_meetings.htm">Calendar of Meetings</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="menunav" valign="top" width="9" bgcolor="#FBF06A"> <img height="21" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Home_files/pixel.gif" width="9"> </td> <td class="nav" width="204"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740/http://www.ipcc.ch/meeting_documentation/meeting_documentation.htm">Meeting Documentation</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="menunav" valign="top" width="9" bgcolor="#C0FFC0"> <img height="21" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Home_files/pixel.gif" width="9"> </td> <td class="nav" width="204"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740/http://www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/news_and_events.htm">News and Events</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="menunav" valign="top" width="9" bgcolor="#66ccff"> <img height="21" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Home_files/pixel.gif" width="9"> </td> <td width="204" bgcolor="#66ccff" class="nav"> <font color="#003399"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data.htm">Publications and Data</a></font> </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" valign="top" class="menunav"> <table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="9" valign="top" class="menunav" height="20"> </td>  <td width="12" valign="top" bgcolor="#66ccff"> </td>  <td class="subnav"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.htm">Reports</a></td> <td width="9" class="menunav"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" class="menunav" height="20"> </td>  <td class="subnav" width="12" valign="top"> </td>  <td class="subnav"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_technical_papers.htm">Technical Papers </a></td> <td class="menunav"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" class="menunav" height="20"> </td>  <td class="subnav" valign="top"> </td>  <td class="subnav"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_supporting_material.htm">Supporting Material </a></td> <td class="menunav"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" class="menunav" height="20"> </td>  <td class="subnav" valign="top"> </td>  <td class="subnav"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_figures_and_tables.htm">Figures and Tables</a></td> <td class="menunav"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td width="9" valign="top" class="menunav" height="20"> </td>  <td class="subnav" width="12" valign="top"> </td>  <td class="subnav"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_glossary.htm">Glossary</a></td> <td width="9" class="menunav"> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="menunav" valign="top" width="9" bgcolor="#0066CB"> <img height="21" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Home_files/pixel.gif" width="9"> </td> <td class="nav"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740/http://www.ipcc.ch/presentations_and_speeches/presentations_and_speeches.htm">Presentations and Speeches</a> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="menunav" valign="top" width="9" bgcolor="#003466"> <img height="21" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Home_files/pixel.gif" width="9"> </td> <td class="nav" width="204"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740/http://www.ipcc.ch/press_information/press_information.htm">Press Information </a> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="menunav" valign="top" width="9" bgcolor="#000034"> <img height="21" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Home_files/pixel.gif" width="9"> </td> <td class="nav" width="204"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740/http://www.ipcc.ch/links/links.htm">Links</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="menunav" valign="top" width="9" bgcolor="#7F006E"> <img height="21" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Home_files/pixel.gif" width="9"> </td> <td class="nav" width="204"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740/http://www.ipcc.ch/contact/contact.htm">Contact</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="menunav" valign="top" colspan="2"> <div align="center"> <p><a href="#"><img onclick="MM_openBrWindow('../7g0_nobel_popup.htm','Nobel','width=900,height=500')" height="100" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Home_files/7g0_IPCC_Nobel_CD_big2.gif" width="100" border="0"></a></p> <p> <span class="address"><font size="1"><br></font></span> <span class="7g0-nobel">© ® The Nobel Foundation</span><br><br> <span class="7g0-nobel2"><font color="#ffffff"><strong>IPCC honoured with the<br> 2007 Nobel Peace Prize</strong></font></span> </p> <p><br></p> <p><span class="address"><br> IPCC<br> Phone: +41-22-730-8208/84<br> e-mail: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740/mailto:IPCC-Sec@wmo.int">IPCC-Sec@wmo.int</a> </span><br>  </p> </div> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br/> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </td> <td valign="top" width="4"><img height="1" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Home_files/pixel.gif" width="4"></td>  <td valign="top" width="775"> <table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" border="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td width="100%"> <table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" border="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td colspan="3" align="center"> <br/> <table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="750" bgcolor="#66ccff"> <tr> <td valign="top" align="left"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Organization_files/7g0_image/tl_corner.gif" width="7" height="9" border="0"/></td> <td><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Organization_files/pixel.gif" height="2"/></td> <td valign="top" align="right"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Organization_files/7g0_image/tr_corner.gif" width="7" height="9" border="0"/></td> </tr> <tr> <td width="7"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Organization_files/pixel.gif" width="7"/></td> <td class="highlightlightWhite" align="center"> REPORTS - SPECIAL REPORTS</td> <td width="7"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Organization_files/pixel.gif" width="7"/></td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="bottom"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Organization_files/7g0_image/bl_corner.gif" width="7" height="9" border="0"/></td> <td></td> <td valign="bottom" align="right"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Organization_files/7g0_image/br_corner.gif" width="7" height="9" border="0"/></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="3"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Organization_files/pixel.gif" height="22"/></td> </tr> <tr> <td width="100%" colspan="3">   </td> </tr>  <tr> <td> <table width="750" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">  <tr>  </tr> <tr> <td> <table width="65%"> <tr> <td><img src="/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Organization_files/pixel.gif" height="1" width="1"/></td> <td bgcolor="#66ccff"><img src="/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Organization_files/pixel.gif" width="4"/></td> <td class="simple_title_bold" width="100%">Emissions Scenarios</td> </tr> </table><br></td> </tr> <tr height="8"> <td><img src="/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Organization_files/pixel.gif" height="1" width="10"/></td> </tr> <tr> <td> <table cellspacing="2" cellpadding="3"> <tr> <td valign="top"> <img src="/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Organization_files/pixel.gif" height="1" width="10"/> <img src="/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/images/c_emiss.gif" width="100" height="130" border="0"> </td> <td valign="top">IPCC, 2000 - Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart (Eds.) <br>Cambridge University Press, UK. pp 570<br> Available from <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740/http://www.cambridge.org/ipcc" target="_blank">Cambridge University Press</a>, The Edinburgh Building Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 2RU ENGLAND<br> <b>Summary for Policymakers</b> <br>IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. pp 20. <br>Available from <a target="_blank" href="/web/20090928102740/http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization_secretariat">IPCC Secretariat</a> in Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Spanish and Russian. </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> <tr height="18"> <td><img src="/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Organization_files/pixel.gif" height="1" width="10"/></td> </tr> <tr height="8"> <td class="simple_title"><img src="/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Organization_files/pixel.gif" height="1" width="10"/><b>Contents</b></td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">  <table width="720" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"> <tr valign="middle"> <td colspan="2"><img src="/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/img/pixel.gif" width="1" height="5"></td> </tr> <tr valign="middle"> <td colspan="2"> <font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"> <script language="JavaScript">  </script> <br> <noscript> <a href="/web/20090928102740/http://www.ipcc.ch/index">Get Javascript</a></noscript></font></td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top"><br><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"> <script language="JavaScript">  </script> </font> </td> <td valign="top" align="right"> <font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.htm">Other reports in this collection</a> </font> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> <tr> <tr> <td align="center"> <table width="700" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td>  <table border="0" cellpadding="10"> <tbody><tr valign="top"> <td> <p><a href="index.php?idp=500">Foreword</a><br/> <a href="index.php?idp=501">Preface</a></p> <p><a href="index.php?idp=1">Summary for policymakers</a><br/> <a href="index.php?idp=9">Technical Summary</a></p> <b>Chapters</b><br/> <a href="index.php?idp=23">Chapter 1: Background and Overview</a><br/> <a href="index.php?idp=34">Chapter 2: An Overview of the Scenario Literature</a> <br/> <a href="index.php?idp=49">Chapter 3: Scenario Driving Forces</a><br/> <a href="index.php?idp=89">Chapter 4: An Overview of Scenarios</a><br/> <a href="index.php?idp=114">Chapter 5: Emission Scenarios</a><br/> <a href="index.php?idp=131">Chapter 6: Summary Discussions and Recommendations</a> <p></p> <b> <a href="index.php?idp=145">Appendices index</a></b><br/> <a href="index.php?idp=146">I: SRES Terms of Reference: New IPCC Emission Scenarios</a><br/> <a href="index.php?idp=147">II: SRES Writing Team and SRES Reviewers</a><br/> <a href="index.php?idp=149">III: Definition of SRES World Region </a><br/> <a href="index.php?idp=150">IV: Six Modeling Approaches </a><br/> <a href="index.php?idp=156">V: Database Description </a><br/> <a href="index.php?idp=158">VI: Open Process</a><br/> <a href="index.php?idp=164">VII Data tables</a><br/> <a href="index.php?idp=165">VIII Acronyms and Abbreviations</a><br/> <a href="index.php?idp=166">IX Chemical Symbols</a><br/> <a href="index.php?idp=167">X Units</a><br/> <a href="index.php?idp=168">XI Glossary of Terms</a><br/> <a href="index.php?idp=169">XII List of Major IPCC Reports </a><br/> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <p><b><i>Authors<b><i>:</i></b></i></b><i> Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Joseph Alcamo, Gerald Davis, Bert de Vries, Joergen Fenhann, Stuart Gaffin, Kenneth Gregory, Arnulf Grübler, Tae Yong Jung, <br/>Tom Kram, Emilio Lebre La Rovere, Laurie Michaelis, Shunsuke Mori, Tsuneyuki Morita, William Pepper, Hugh Pitcher, Lynn Price, Keywan Riahi, Alexander Roehrl, Hans-Holger Rogner, Alexei Sankovski, Michael Schlesinger, Priyadarshi Shukla, Steven Smith, Robert Swart, Sascha van Rooijen, Nadejda Victor, Zhou Dadi </i> </p> <p><i><b><i>Edited by:</i>Nebojsa Nakicenovic</b> (Leader of the Transitions to New Technologies Project at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), in Austria) and <b>Rob Swart</b> (Head of the Technical Support Unit of Working Group III on Mitigation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in the Netherlands).</i></p> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr>  <tr> <td align="center"> <table width="700" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"> <tr valign="top"> <td> <font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"> <noscript> </noscript> <script language="JavaScript">  </script> <br>  </font> </td> <td align="right">  </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr>  </table> </td> </tr>  <tr> <td><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Organization_files/pixel.gif" height="22"/></td> </tr> </table> <br> </td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </td> <td rowspan="3" width="1"><img height="1" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090928102740im_/http://www.ipcc.ch/Home_files/pixel.gif" width="1"></td> </tr> <tr> <td></td> <td></td> <td align="center"> </td> </tr> </table> </div> </form> </body> </html>

CINXE.COM

Emissions Scenarios