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id="wrap"> <div id="header"><h1><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/">Behind the Numbers: The PRB blog on population, health, and the environment</a></h1></div> <div class="hr"></div> <div class="hr2"></div><div class="left"> <h2 class="widgettitle">Authors</h2> <ul> <li class="widget widget_authors"> <ul><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?author=4" title="Posts by Bill Butz">Bill Butz</a> (2)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?author=6" title="Posts by Carl Haub">Carl Haub</a> (2)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?author=11" title="Posts by Charlie Teller">Charlie Teller</a> (1)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?author=10" title="Posts by ezuehlke">ezuehlke</a> (1)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?author=12" title="Posts by Mark Mather">Mark Mather</a> (2)</li></ul> </li> </ul> <ul> <li id="categories-1" class="widget widget_categories"><h2 class="widgettitle">Topics</h2> <ul> <li class="cat-item cat-item-3"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?cat=3" title="Blog on the PRB topic- Education">Education</a> (1) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-4"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?cat=4" title="Blog on the PRB topic of Environment">Environment</a> (2) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-5"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?cat=5" title="Blog on the PRB topic of Gender">Gender</a> (1) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-7"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?cat=7" title="Blog on the PRB Topic of Immigration/Migration">Immigration/Migration</a> (1) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-8"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?cat=8" 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8pt;">population growth</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?tag=poverty" class="tag-link-29" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">poverty</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?tag=statistics" class="tag-link-42" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">statistics</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?tag=video" class="tag-link-37" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">video</a></li> <li id="recent-posts" class="widget widget_recent_entries"> <h2 class="widgettitle">Recent Posts</h2> <ul> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?p=24">New Data from “Midsize” America: The American Community Survey Explained </a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?p=23">A Census Beyond National Borders? </a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?p=22">In Defense of Paul Ehrlich </a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?p=20">The Migration Challenge </a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?p=21">Fertile Fringes: Population Growth at Protected-Area Edges </a></li> </ul> </li> <li id="archives" class="widget widget_archives"><h2 class="widgettitle">Archives</h2> <ul> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?m=200811" title="November 2008">November 2008</a> (3)</li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?m=200810" title="October 2008">October 2008</a> (5)</li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="right"> <ul> <li> <h2 class="widgettitle">Blog Search</h2> <div id="search"><form method="get" id="searchform" action="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/"> <div><input type="text" value="" name="s" id="s"/> <input type="submit" id="searchsubmit" value="Go"/> </div> </form> </div> <div style="clear: both;"></div> </li> <li id="text-1" class="widget widget_text"> <h2 class="widgettitle">About the PRB Blog</h2> <div class="textwidget"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?page_id=2">The PRB blog is....</a> </div> </li> <li id="recent-comments" class="widget widget_recent_comments"> <h2 class="widgettitle">Recent Comments</h2> <ul id="recentcomments"><li class="recentcomments">Carl Haub on <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?p=22#comment-24">In Defense of Paul Ehrlich</a></li><li class="recentcomments"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://demography.ru/" rel="external nofollow">Boris Denisov</a> on <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?p=22#comment-23">In Defense of Paul Ehrlich</a></li></ul> </li> <li id="links" class="widget widget_links"><h2 class="widgettitle">Blogroll</h2> <ul> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://blogs.cgdev.org/globalhealth/">Center for Global Development: Global Health Policy Blog</a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://blogs.cgdev.org/globaldevelopment/">Center for Global Development: Views from the Center</a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://www.globaldashboard.org/">Global Dashboard: Notes from the Future</a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://gsionline.csis.org/">Global Strategy Institute Online</a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://globalhealth.sais-jhu.edu/">Johns Hopkins University: Global Health and Foreign Policy Blog</a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://geography.about.com/b/">Matt’s Geography Blog</a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/">New York Times: Dot Earth Blog</a></li> <li><a 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Syndication">RSS</abbr></a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?feed=comments-rss2" title="The latest comments to all posts in RSS">Comments <abbr title="Really Simple Syndication">RSS</abbr></a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://wordpress.org/" title="Powered by WordPress, state-of-the-art semantic personal publishing platform.">WordPress.org</a></li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="middle"> <div id="post-24"> <h2><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?p=24" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to New Data from “Midsize” America: The American Community Survey Explained">New Data from “Midsize” America: The American Community Survey Explained</a></h2> <p><small>November 26th, 2008 Mark Mather</small> Posted in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?cat=10" title="View all posts in Population Basics" rel="category">Population Basics</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?p=24#respond" title="Comment on New Data from “Midsize” America: The American Community Survey Explained">No Comments »</a> </p> <div class="entry"> <p><em>Mark Mather, associate vice president, Domestic Programs</em> </p> <p>One of the many joys of being a demographer is getting to work with new data. Starting on December 9, there will be a new source of information for small geographic areas in the United States. It’s called the American Community Survey, and the December release will include the first detailed characteristics of people living in “midsize population areas” with 20,000 to 64,999 people. About one-third of the 3,141 counties nationwide have populations in this range.</p> <p>The Census Bureau will release ACS numbers in the form of three-year estimates, covering the period from 2005-2007. By 2010, the Census Bureau will have collected enough data to produce annual five-year estimates for even smaller geographic areas. ACS data will replace the information that was previously collected through the Census Bureau’s decennial census long form.</p> <p>Want more information? The Census Bureau is producing a series of handbooks to help different audiences make sense of the ACS and how it can be used. The first of these, <em>A Compass for Understanding and Using American Community Survey Data: What General Data Users Need to Know</em>, was authored by PRB staff and is available on the <a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://www.census.gov/acs/www/Downloads/ACSGeneralHandbook.pdf">Census Bureau’s website</a>. Additional handbooks and training materials will be available in the coming months.</p> </div>  <div class="addthis"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=blogohblog&url=http://prbblog.org/?p=24&title=New Data from “Midsize” America: The American Community Survey Explained" title="Bookmark using any bookmark manager!" target="_blank"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747im_/http://s9.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" width="125" height="16" border="0" alt="AddThis Social Bookmark Button"/></a></div> </div> <div class="br"><br/></div> <div id="post-23"> <h2><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?p=23" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to A Census Beyond National Borders?">A Census Beyond National Borders?</a></h2> <p><small>November 10th, 2008 Mark Mather</small> Posted in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?cat=4" title="View all posts in Environment" rel="category">Environment</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?cat=10" title="View all posts in Population Basics" rel="category">Population Basics</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?p=23#respond" title="Comment on A Census Beyond National Borders?">No Comments »</a> </p> <div class="entry"> <p><em>Mark Mather, Associate Vice President, Domestic Programs</em> </p> <p>Newspapers today reported on <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/2008-11-09-ocean-census_N.htm">results of a massive, global census. </a>But this is not a typical census of people and housing. It is the largest-ever census of marine life. The purpose? To “assess and explain the diversity, distribution, and abundance of life in the oceans,” according to the <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://www.coml.org/">Census of Marine Life website</a></p> <p>The task seems daunting. After all, oceans cover more than 70 percent of the world’s surface, and parts of the ocean are thousands of feet deep. But this initiative got me thinking: if we can conduct such a massive census of undersea life, why can’t we conduct a global census of human population?</p> <p>The <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://www.measuredhs.com/">Demographic and Health Surveys </a>provide something like a global census for developing countries, but there are no comparable surveys of the developed world. Yet with globalization and rising levels of international migration, national boundaries are increasingly blurred. In the United States, rapid population growth and increasing race/ethnic diversity is closely linked to trends in immigration, particularly from Latin America and Asia. Policymakers and researchers could use data from a global census to help predict future trends in population growth, diversity, and migration.</p> <p>OK, this may be asking too much. Conducting a global census would cost billions of dollars, and who would foot the bill? What kinds of questions would yield comparable data across the world’s vastly different cultures?</p> <p>Let’s hold off on the global census, but how about starting on a smaller scale, with a continental census of North America? Canada, Mexico, and the United States each conduct regular censuses, but population concepts and questionnaire items vary widely across the three countries. Understanding our neighbors in Canada and Mexico, through a standardized series of census questions, could go a long way toward a better understanding of how the United States fits into the global picture.<o:p></o:p></p> </div>  <div class="addthis"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=blogohblog&url=http://prbblog.org/?p=23&title=A Census Beyond National Borders?" title="Bookmark using any bookmark manager!" target="_blank"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747im_/http://s9.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" width="125" height="16" border="0" alt="AddThis Social Bookmark Button"/></a></div> </div> <div class="br"><br/></div> <div id="post-22"> <h2><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?p=22" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to In Defense of Paul Ehrlich">In Defense of Paul Ehrlich</a></h2> <p><small>November 5th, 2008 Carl Haub</small> Posted in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?cat=10" title="View all posts in Population Basics" rel="category">Population Basics</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?p=22#comments" title="Comment on In Defense of Paul Ehrlich">2 Comments »</a> </p> <div class="entry"> <p><em>by Carl Haub, Senior Demographer</em></p> <p>What! Someone is <em>defending</em> Paul Ehrlich? Paul Ehrlich, the famous author of the 1968 <em>Population Bomb</em>, has often taken it on the chin for his infamous “predictions.” His statement in the <em>Population Bomb </em>“The battle to feed all of humanity is over” has probably landed him in the most hot water. While that battle has not been lost, neither has it been won even to this day.</p> <p>Ehrlich’s Cassandra-like statements have caused him considerable grief – but consider them as products of the time in which they were made. The population of the world’s developing countries (Africa, Asia, Latin America/Caribbean, and Oceania) was growing at a startling 2.5 percent per year. Our old friend “doubling time” tells us that that rate would cause their population, 2.6 billion at the time, to double every 28 years - 2.6 billion in 1968, 5.2 billion in 1996, 7.0 billion today, 10.4 billion in 2024, and so on. In 1968, women averaged six children per woman; family planning was virtually unknown; and death rates were likely to continue downward thanks to immunization programs and spreading public health measures so the growth might even increase.</p> <p>It had taken world population until about 1800 to reach its first billion and 130 to reach the second. Four billion would come just six years after Ehrlich had written his book and the fifth billion just 13 years further on. The unprecedented growth was a result of a very rapid 20th century decline in death rates in developing countries, something that had taken the developed countries many centuries to achieve. That growth came as a real surprise. </p> <p>If you are going to sound a warning, a clarion call, sound it LOUDLY. Ehrlich (whose name means “honest” in German) pulled no punches. If he had said something like “There is a possibility that increased hunger and starvation might manifest itself should the population growth rate in developing countries not ameliorate,” no one would have listened. Nor would he be much criticized or remembered today. If you’re going to say “Fire!” don’t whisper. It’s worth noting that Ehrlich’s original title for the book was “Population, Resources, and the Environment.” It was the publisher who gave it the “Population Bomb” title.</p> <p>To be sure, Ehrlich was hardly the first to sound the alarm. News magazines, such as U.S. News and World Report, far more influential then than now, had run stories on the population problem. In 1963, the magazine reported that President Kennedy had agreed to offer birth control information to “other nations.” It makes no sense that Ehrlich is now criticized as being alarmist because his dire warnings did not, in the main, come true. But it was <em>because</em> of such warnings from Ehrlich and others that countries took action to avoid potential disaster.The edition of the <em>Bomb</em> I picked up in a used book sale at Georgetown University in 1974 was in its 32nd printing. Someone must have been getting the message. Nice going, Paul.<o:p></o:p></p> </div>  <div class="addthis"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=blogohblog&url=http://prbblog.org/?p=22&title=In Defense of Paul Ehrlich" title="Bookmark using any bookmark manager!" target="_blank"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747im_/http://s9.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" width="125" height="16" border="0" alt="AddThis Social Bookmark Button"/></a></div> </div> <div class="br"><br/></div> <div id="post-18"> <h2><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?p=18" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to Is Africa Being Eaten by the Malthusian Dragon?">Is Africa Being Eaten by the Malthusian Dragon?</a></h2> <p><small>October 16th, 2008 Charlie Teller</small> Posted in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?cat=10" title="View all posts in Population Basics" rel="category">Population Basics</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://prbblog.org/?p=18#respond" title="Comment on Is Africa Being Eaten by the Malthusian Dragon?">No Comments »</a> </p> <div class="entry"> <p><em>by Charles Teller, Bixby Visiting Scholar</em></p> <p>Malthus predicted over 200 years ago that population growth would outrun food production and cause much misery in the world, and we’ve been struggling with this draconian “dragon” ever since. Since the 1990s, this Malthusian dragon has been beaten back by positive socio-economic, political, health, and demographic changes in many sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. But now, in the first decade of the 21st century, we are confronted by menacing global energy, financial, and food crises. What are the effects on Africa?</p> <p>The answer may be: it depends on where, when and who! Let’s not generalize about SSA, but look at the distinct sub-regions, the diversity of individual countries, and vulnerable groups within countries. Are these crises not also a struggle between global forces and local resilience?</p> <p>As a sociologist and demographer, I’ve been partnering in demographic, health, food, and nutrition assessments in SSA over the last 25 years. More recently, I have lived in Ethiopia, where the UN’s Under-Secretary General for Humanitarian Assistance now proclaims is ”<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://us.oneworld.net/article/357242-ethiopia-facing-worlds-most-urgent-food-crisis">the world’s most urgent food crisis</a>” with 12 million facing food shortages. But even with political and climate changes, Ethiopia has improved its early warning systems and resilience to excess mortality due to food insecurity and disease since the disastrous 1984-5 famine. Rural chronic malnutrition has declined from 64 percent to 48 percent, and child mortality declined by one-third!</p> <p>Now, what should we be measuring on <a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://www.fao.org/getinvolved/worldfoodday/en/">World Food Day</a>? Is it famine, hunger, undernourishment, under-nutrition, or malnutrition? International agencies - WHO, FAO, World Food Program, UNICEF, World Bank - can’t even agree. A compromise may be seen in the new <a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://www.ifpri.org/">Global Hunger Index</a> which combines dietary intake, underweight and under-five mortality, and identifies 33 world “hot spots”.</p> <p>And on the population side, African research on poverty, hunger, and the demographic transition has demonstrated a need to look beyond rapid population growth and large families as the overarching factors, and to incorporate other factors such as geographic and age distribution, land density and environment, migration and urbanization, family and marriage, as well as socio-economic, cultural, and gender disparities.</p> <p>Here are just a few of the contradictory population-food/nutrition facts in the last 15 years in SSA:</p> <ul> <li><u><a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://www.fao.org/GIEWS/english/index.htm">Population Growth Rates Slower, Fertility Declining, But Hunger Increased:</a></u> While growth rates have been slowing since 1990, most of the increase in world under-nourishment has been in SSA, where the absolute number with inadequate dietary intake increased from 169 to 212 million people.</li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://www.prb.org/Articles/2008/stuntingssa.aspx/">Mortality is Lower, but Malnutrition Continues</a>: Infant and under-five mortality has declined significantly from 1990 to 2005 and inadequate dietary intake and underweight incidence also declined somewhat; but the crucial biometric of persistent and chronic stunting has not. Have those saved from dying joined the ranks of the stunted?</li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://www.prb.org/Articles/2008/foodsecurityeastafrica.aspx">Rurual Land Pressure and Urbanization Changes Food Needs</a>: Increasing population pressure, resource conflict, and environmental degradation has forced many rural families to diversify, migrate, and/or seek off-farm employment. This can be a “safety valve” for social change and longer life expectancy, but also results in net buyers of staple foods and modified diets.</li> </ul> <p>As <a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12381162">The Economist magazine just wrote about SSA last week </a>, the latest trend is “cheeringly positive,” with signs of hope, economic development, and political stability. Some African countries are much less affected by internationally traded food stuffs (e.g., Ghana), many farmers are net producers, and some drought-prone countries have decreased their stunting (e.g., Ethiopia, Tanzania), but others remain mired as failed states (e.g., Somalia and DRC).</p> <p>So, let’s look more carefully at the long-term trends and the recent numbers: what do they mean, country by country, and identify both the more vulnerable to the recent crises and the more resilient to the longer-term structural changes. How well are certain countries doing up against the Malthusian dragon? Do you agree that it’s better to contextualize the issue on a country-by country basis over time rather than generalizing about the whole African continent at this critical time?</p> </div>  <div class="addthis"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=blogohblog&url=http://prbblog.org/?p=18&title=Is Africa Being Eaten by the Malthusian Dragon?" title="Bookmark using any bookmark manager!" target="_blank"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747im_/http://s9.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" width="125" height="16" border="0" alt="AddThis Social Bookmark Button"/></a></div> </div> <div class="br"><br/></div> <div> <div class="alignleft"></div> <div class="alignright"></div> </div> <br/> </div> </td></tr></table></center>  <br/><br/> <div align="center"> <div align="center" id="ftr"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747im_/http://www.prb.org/images/footer2.gif" width="3" height="23" align="right"/><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747im_/http://www.prb.org/images/footer1.gif" width="3" height="23" align="left"/><span class="footertext">Services: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://www.prb.org/Home/EmailSignup.aspx">Get E-Mail News</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://www.prb.org/Join.aspx">Join/Renew Membership</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://www.prb.org/Donate.aspx">Donate</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://www.prb.org/Bookstore.aspx">Bookstore</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://www.prb.org/Home/Contact.aspx">Contact</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://www.prb.org/SpanishContent.aspx">Español</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://www.prb.org/FrenchContent.aspx">Français</a></span></div> <span class="footer2text"><b>Copyright 2007, Population Reference Bureau.</b> All rights reserved. • <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/http://www.prb.org/Home/Privacy.aspx">Privacy Policy</a></span><br/> <span class="footer2text">1875 Connecticut Avenue, NW • Suite 520 • Washington, DC 20009-5728 • USA <br/> <b>Phone:</b> 800-877-9881 • <b>Fax:</b> 202-328-3937 • <b>E-mail:</b> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213747/mailto:popref@prb.org">popref@prb.org</a></span><br/> </div>  </div> </body> </html>