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class="wp-block-separator has-text-color has-foreground-color has-css-opacity has-foreground-background-color has-background is-style-wide"/> <nav class="has-small-font-size items-justified-center wp-block-navigation is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-navigation-is-layout-2 wp-block-navigation-is-layout-flex" aria-label="Header navigation 2"><ul class="wp-block-navigation__container has-small-font-size items-justified-center wp-block-navigation has-small-font-size"><li class="has-small-font-size wp-block-navigation-item wp-block-navigation-link"><a class="wp-block-navigation-item__content" href="https://andoverpoll.com/state/georgia/"><span class="wp-block-navigation-item__label">Georgia</span></a></li><li class="has-small-font-size wp-block-navigation-item wp-block-navigation-link"><a class="wp-block-navigation-item__content" href="https://andoverpoll.com/state/new-hampshire/"><span class="wp-block-navigation-item__label">New Hampshire</span></a></li><li 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class="wp-block-separator has-text-color has-foreground-color has-css-opacity has-foreground-background-color has-background is-style-wide"/> </header> <main class="wp-block-group is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow"> <div class="wp-block-group is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained"><h2 class="wp-block-post-title">Arizona decides: Kelly and Masters locked in tight battle, Kari Lake dominates Hobbs</h2> <div class="wp-block-group is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained"> <div class="wp-block-group is-layout-flex wp-block-group-is-layout-flex"><div style="font-style:italic;font-weight:400;" class="wp-block-post-date has-small-font-size"><time datetime="2022-11-01T08:02:30-05:00">November 1, 2022</time></div> <div class="wp-block-post-author has-small-font-size"><div class="wp-block-post-author__content"><p class="wp-block-post-author__name">The Andover Poll</p></div></div></div> </div> <figure style="margin-bottom:var(--wp--custom--spacing--medium, 6rem);" class="wp-block-post-featured-image"><img width="960" height="540" src="https://andoverpoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Arizona-Sen-Graph.png" class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image" alt="Mark Kelly (D) has 47%. Blake Masters (R) has 47%." style="object-fit:cover;" decoding="async" srcset="https://andoverpoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Arizona-Sen-Graph.png 960w, https://andoverpoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Arizona-Sen-Graph-300x169.png 300w, https://andoverpoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Arizona-Sen-Graph-768x432.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></figure> <div class="entry-content wp-block-post-content is-layout-constrained wp-block-post-content-is-layout-constrained"> <p>Arizona is heating up, and we鈥檙e not just talking about temperature. Arizona Democrats are trying to preserve their seat, currently held by Mark Kelly, while the GOP hopes to gain a majority in the Senate. Arizona鈥檚 gubernatorial election is also highly competitive, with incumbent Republican Governor Doug Ducey term-limited. The Phillips Academy Poll surveyed 985 Arizona residents in a likely voter poll from October 29 to 30.</p> <p><strong>Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Kelly is leading Republican challenger Blake Masters by 1%, well within the poll鈥檚 3.1% margin of error. </strong>Libertarian Marc Victor received 2% of the vote, and 5% of voters were undecided. The race has narrowed in recent weeks, as swing voters weigh inflation and economic turmoil, associated by some with the current Democratic leadership, while Republicans struggle to compete with Democrats in fundraising overall. In 2020, Kelly flipped the vacant seat previously held by John McCain, who died in office in 2018. Before pursuing a career in politics, Democrat Mark Kelly served as an astronaut and a captain in the Navy. Kelly鈥檚 opponent, Republican Blake Masters, is a businessman and venture capitalist who, in 2016, was a member of the Trump transition team. With Trump鈥檚 endorsement, Masters easily won his primary against a field of four other Republican candidates. </p> <p>Kelly鈥檚 platform prioritizes protecting abortion rights, fighting climate change, investing in healthcare, and creating jobs. Meanwhile, Masters promises to secure the border, reduce inflation, crack down on crime, protect the unborn, and ensure American energy independence. Gun crime has proven to be a point of contention between the two, as Kelly has advocated for stronger regulations on gun ownership while Masters has emphasized the link between organized crime and gun violence. Masters has also faced criticism from the Trump wing of the Republican party, largely a result of his refusal to deny Biden鈥檚 win in the 2020 election.</p> <p>Masters has won the support of male voters (50%), rural voters (58%), and Hispanic voters (49%). Kelly has garnered strong support from white voters (49%), urban voters (55%), and college-educated voters (57%). Kelly has also seen support from Republican voters (12%) and is outperforming Democratic gubernatorial candidate Katie Hobbs by nine points in rural areas of the state.</p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="960" height="540" src="https://andoverpoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Arizona-Gov-Graph.png" alt="Kari Lake (R) has 53%. Katie Hobbs (D) has 42%." class="wp-image-842" srcset="https://andoverpoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Arizona-Gov-Graph.png 960w, https://andoverpoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Arizona-Gov-Graph-300x169.png 300w, https://andoverpoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Arizona-Gov-Graph-768x432.png 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></figure> <p><strong>Republican Kari Lake leads Democrat Katie Hobbs by 11% in the Arizona gubernatorial election.</strong> Republican Kari Lake previously worked as a news anchor for Phoenix’s Fox station, and in her August primary, beat out three rivals with the endorsement of former president Donald Trump.聽Her opponent, Democrat Katie Hobbs has served as Arizona鈥檚 Secretary of State since 2019. Hobbs previously served in the Arizona House of Representatives, and as a State Senator, where she served as the Senate minority leader for four years.</p> <p>In their final appeal to voters, Lake and Hobbs are battling over issues such as border security, abortion, the economy, and broader social issues. Lake鈥檚 agenda includes stronger border security, the removal of vaccine mandates, and pro-life policies. The Lake campaign also touts the importance of the 2nd Amendment and seeks to aid rural communities and small businesses by cutting taxes on rent and groceries. Lake has also reiterated the false claims that former president Donald Trump won the 2020 election. Conversely, Hobbs is running on a platform of protecting abortion access and increasing education funding. She has also advocated for greater transparency within the state government.</p> <p>Lake currently enjoys a large amount of support from male voters (59%), non-college-educated voters (60%), Hispanic voters (56%), and voters earning above $100k per year (54%). Lake also has more female support (50%) than Hobbs (47%) and drastically outpaces Hobbs in rural areas (66%). Hobbs, meanwhile, enjoys significant support from college-educated voters (54%) and urban voters (50%).</p> <p><a href="https://andoverpoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Arizona-October-Poll.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="See the full poll report and cross tabs.">See the full poll report and cross tabs.</a></p> <p>This poll was conducted with text messaging to mobile phones and IVR to landlines. <a href="https://andoverpoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Arizona-Poll-October-2022-Methodology.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="See the methodology here.">See the methodology here.</a></p> <p>This poll was made possible by a grant from the Abbot Academy Fund, continuing Abbot鈥檚 tradition of boldness, innovation, and caring.</p> <p>CORRECTION: This report previously described Kari Lake’s 5-point primary win with the subjective qualifier “narrow.” This language has been removed.</p> <p>CORRECTION: This report previously stated that Kari Lake was endorsed by Governor Doug Ducey prior to her primary win.</p> </div> <div style="height:40px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <p class="has-large-font-size"><strong>More Articles</strong></p> <ul class="wp-block-latest-posts__list has-author wp-block-latest-posts"><li><a class="wp-block-latest-posts__post-title" href="https://andoverpoll.com/2022/12/19/our-inaugural-cycle-deconstructed-many-great-calls-and-a-few-blunders/">Our Inaugural Cycle Deconstructed: Many Great Calls and a Few Blunders</a><div class="wp-block-latest-posts__post-author">by The Andover Poll</div></li> <li><a class="wp-block-latest-posts__post-title" href="https://andoverpoll.com/2022/11/28/herschel-walker-up-by-1/">Hot off 100% Senate record, Phillips Academy finds Herschel Walker up by 1% in close Georgia race</a><div class="wp-block-latest-posts__post-author">by The Andover Poll</div></li> <li><a class="wp-block-latest-posts__post-title" href="https://andoverpoll.com/2022/11/21/phillips-academys-perfect-record/">Nailing the upset in Nevada: Phillips Academy’s perfect record polling Senate tossups</a><div class="wp-block-latest-posts__post-author">by The Andover Poll</div></li> <li><a class="wp-block-latest-posts__post-title" href="https://andoverpoll.com/2022/11/07/new-hampshire-leans-purple-hassan-leads-bolduc-by-4-sununu-has-a-22-point-lead/">New Hampshire leans purple: Hassan leads Bolduc by 4; 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