Mysteel:华南市场双焦弱势运行钢厂需求仍待释放-我的钢铁网

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href="http://baike.sososteel.com/doc/view/38159.html">现货</a>市场价格继续弱势运行。<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>南方地区冶金焦价格指数：福州港准一级冶金焦2510元/吨，阳江港二级冶金焦2420元/吨，阳江港准一级冶金焦2520元/吨，阳江港一级冶金焦2620元/吨，防城港准一级冶金2515元/吨，防城港一级冶金焦2615元/吨，均为湿吨、含税、承兑、到港价。</p> <p align="center">图1.Mysteel南方地区冶金焦价格指数</p> <p align="center"><img alt="" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/03/22/104341.png" style="width: 662px; height: 225px;" /></p> <p align="justify">华南地区多以钢厂焦化为主，基本无独立焦企，钢厂大多借助沿海、距码头较近的优势，多与北方、华东焦企和贸易商签订长期协议来保证焦炭供应，主要从日照港、青岛港、天津港及连云港等港口装船发货。从主要港口冶金焦现货价格指数来看，整体价格弱势下行，贸易商整体活跃度不高，市场成交冷清。截至3月19日，贸易出库价格准一级冶金焦2200元/吨，一级冶金焦2300元/吨，均环比上周下降250元/吨；工厂平仓价格准一级冶金焦2350元/吨，一级冶金焦2450元/吨，均环比上周下降200元/吨。</p> <p align="justify">价差方面，贸易出库和工厂平仓理论值价差在负70-80元/吨左右，从去年10月开始，贸易出库与工厂价差逐步缩小，进入11月后价差出现正值，表明市场严重供不应求，究其原因，主要受到去产能影响，下游钢厂在港口无法低价拿货，贸易商加价出货意向较高，供应紧张阶段价差最高达到200元/吨以上。目前随着供需转变宽松，贸易出库与工厂平仓价差维持负150元/吨，市场仍处下跌行情中，整体投机氛围不足，又受到3月19日第六轮提降落地影响、唐山出台的《关于唐山市钢铁行业企业限产减排措施的通知》，以及期货盘面大幅回落等影响，贸易商拿货心态较差，多以观望为主。</p> <p align="center">图2.Mysteel港口冶金焦价格指数</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/03/22/104410.png" style="width: 662px; height: 406px;" /></p> <p align="justify"><strong>二、广西新增焦炉产量释放华南钢厂库存维持高位 </strong></p> <p align="justify">焦炭价格目前虽已下调6轮，累计降幅600元/吨，生产企业和贸易商多对后市预期仍较悲观。截至3月19日据Mysteel统计全国焦企吨焦盈利继续大幅下降，全国平均盈利635元/吨，利润仍处于尚可水平，加上保供任务下，整体开工率仍保持高位运行，产能利用率多保持在90%左右。从国家统计局统计的华南地区焦炭产量可以看出，去年广东、福建整体产量平稳，广西产量在2020年下半年上升明显，主要因为有新增钢厂焦炉投产，而今年又有配套高炉投产，预计广西焦炭产量将维持高位运行。</p> <p align="center">图3.Mysteel华南地区焦炭产量</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/03/22/104502.png" style="width: 662px; height: 406px;" /></p> <p></p> <p>焦炭库存方面，因华南钢厂目前仍有小高炉轮修计划，时间多维持半个月至两个月，但厂内库存在春节前多以补至高位，可用天数均保持在20天以上用量。短期焦炭又处于下降行情，港口工厂平仓价格仍处于往年较高水平，目前钢厂多无采购计划，整体仍保持降低库存、按需采购为主。</p> <p>综合来看，华南地区焦炭市场仍将承压运行，主要需面对钢厂焦炭正常偏高的库存压力、高炉检修以及港口价格实际成交等情况的影响。</p> <p align="center">图4.华南钢厂焦炭库存和可用天数</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/03/22/104520.png" style="width: 662px; height: 406px;" /></p> <p></p> <p><strong>三、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0502-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>煤炭</a>价格承压运行煤炭库存回落正常</strong></p> <p>煤炭价格方面，国产<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----050202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>炼焦煤</a>价格仍弱稳运行，据MyCCpic 炼焦煤国产现货综合指数为1132.7元/吨，月均价1138.9元/吨。低硫S0.6主焦煤价1478.1 元/吨，月均价1487.4元/吨，具体分城市来看，低硫主焦煤柳林出厂含税价1450元/吨，安泽出厂含税价1520元/吨。</p> <p>进口炼焦煤<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968------0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>远期价格指数</a>目前也呈震荡运行。澳煤价格因受国内对澳大利亚煤炭资源进口限制，目前国内进口煤仍多以加拿大、俄罗斯、印尼等其他国家为主。俄罗斯K4 煤价格156.00 CFR，月均价161.50CFR。加拿大Elrview煤价格212.00 CFR，月均价214.67CFR。据Mysteel <a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----050203-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>喷吹煤</a><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968------0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>远期现货价格</a>指数，俄罗斯 Mechel 125.00CFR ，月均价 132.07 CFR，俄罗斯Sib 127.00 CFR，月均价 134.29CFR。</p> <p>受国内整体价格走弱影响，进口炼焦煤和喷吹煤价格仍保持弱势运行，钢厂采购积极性一般。</p> <p align="center">图5.炼焦煤和喷吹煤进口远期现货价格和国产价格</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/03/22/104540.png" style="width: 662px; height: 406px;" /></p> <p></p> <p>因澳煤进口受限，华南地区钢厂目前加大对国产煤的使用力度，整体国产和进口煤的比例为8：2。随春节后煤矿复产和价格走弱影响，钢厂煤炭库存整体都呈现高位回落走势。</p> <p>煤炭供应方面，受两会影响，部分煤矿产量有少量下滑，个别区域煤矿仍未满产，且近日山西部分地区受环保督察、内蒙当地受能源管控影响，各区域矿井均出现停、限产情况，产地供应有所下降。</p> <p>钢厂库存方面，整体仍保持正常偏高水平，因春节前补库需求，钢厂普遍做高库存，可用天数多维持在焦煤20天、喷煤25天左右用量。后期煤矿复工复产逐步恢复，钢厂煤炭整体库存降回归至正常水平。</p> <p align="center">图6.华南钢厂煤炭库存和可用天数对比</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/03/22/105033.png" style="width: 662px; height: 406px;" /></p> <p></p> <p><strong>四、华南地区双焦市场总结</strong></p> <p>华南地区双焦整体表现依旧弱稳。焦炭目前主要受制于下游钢厂检修、较高库存，以及实际需求暂未明显增加，钢厂按需补库、观望为主。后期钢厂虽有高炉投产，但随着新增焦炉产量的释放和长协订单保供，整体供应仍将平稳运行。</p> <p>煤炭价格跟随焦炭降价仍呈现弱势，下游采购需求整体表现一般，但产区煤矿因受环保检查和能源管控政策，以及后期新增焦炉逐步投产、需求利好等影响，煤炭价格有望弱势企稳。</p> <p>但仍需警惕焦炭价格继续回落，港口投机氛围较差，以及下游需求不及预期等问题导致市场继续下行风险。</p> <p></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p></p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：武超 021-26093189 </br> 资讯监督：雷万青 021-26093205 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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