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Why Intelligence Fails: Lessons from the Iranian Revolution and the Iraq War - Robert Jervis - Google Books
<!DOCTYPE html><html><head><title>Why Intelligence Fails: Lessons from the Iranian Revolution and the Iraq War - Robert Jervis - Google Books</title><link rel="stylesheet" href="/books/css/_a33f2a89320471e58c940b9287b9d4eb/kl_about_this_book_kennedy_full_bundle.css" type="text/css" /><link rel="stylesheet"href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Product+Sans:wght@400"><link rel="canonical" href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Why_Intelligence_Fails.html?id=_4qwreIHR_MC"/><meta property="og:url" content="https://books.google.com/books/about/Why_Intelligence_Fails.html?id=_4qwreIHR_MC"/><meta name="title" content="Why Intelligence Fails"/><meta name="description" content="The U.S. government spends enormous resources each year on the gathering and analysis of intelligence, yet the history of American foreign policy is littered with missteps and misunderstandings that have resulted from intelligence failures. In Why Intelligence Fails, Robert Jervis examines the politics and psychology of two of the more spectacular intelligence failures in recent memory: the mistaken belief that the regime of the Shah in Iran was secure and stable in 1978, and the claim that Iraq had active WMD programs in 2002.The Iran case is based on a recently declassified report Jervis was commissioned to undertake by CIA thirty years ago and includes memoranda written by CIA officials in response to Jervis's findings. The Iraq case, also grounded in a review of the intelligence community's performance, is based on close readings of both classified and declassified documents, though Jervis's conclusions are entirely supported by evidence that has been declassified.In both cases, Jervis finds not only that intelligence was badly flawed but also that later explanations鈥攁nalysts were bowing to political pressure and telling the White House what it wanted to hear or were willfully blind鈥攚ere also incorrect. Proponents of these explanations claimed that initial errors were compounded by groupthink, lack of coordination within the government, and failure to share information. Policy prescriptions, including the recent establishment of a Director of National Intelligence, were supposed to remedy the situation.In Jervis's estimation, neither the explanations nor the prescriptions are adequate. The inferences that intelligence drew were actually quite plausible given the information available. Errors arose, he concludes, from insufficient attention to the ways in which information should be gathered and interpreted, a lack of self-awareness about the factors that led to the judgments, and an organizational culture that failed to probe for weaknesses and explore alternatives. Evaluating the inherent tensions between the methods and aims of intelligence personnel and policymakers from a unique insider's perspective, Jervis forcefully criticizes recent proposals for improving the performance of the intelligence community and discusses ways in which future analysis can be improved. 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The Iraq case, also grounded in a review of the intelligence community's performance, is based on close readings of both classified and declassified documents, though Jervis's conclusions are entirely supported by evidence that has been declassified.</p><p>In both cases, Jervis finds not only that intelligence was badly flawed but also that later explanations鈥攁nalysts were bowing to political pressure and telling the White House what it wanted to hear or were willfully blind鈥攚ere also incorrect. Proponents of these explanations claimed that initial errors were compounded by groupthink, lack of coordination within the government, and failure to share information. Policy prescriptions, including the recent establishment of a Director of National Intelligence, were supposed to remedy the situation.</p><p>In Jervis's estimation, neither the explanations nor the prescriptions are adequate. The inferences that intelligence drew were actually quite plausible given the information available. Errors arose, he concludes, from insufficient attention to the ways in which information should be gathered and interpreted, a lack of self-awareness about the factors that led to the judgments, and an organizational culture that failed to probe for weaknesses and explore alternatives. Evaluating the inherent tensions between the methods and aims of intelligence personnel and policymakers from a unique insider's perspective, Jervis forcefully criticizes recent proposals for improving the performance of the intelligence community and discusses ways in which future analysis can be improved. </p></div></div></div><div class="search_box_wrapper"><div id="preview-link"><a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&printsec=frontcover&vq=Saddam&output=html_text" class="primary"><span dir=ltr>Preview this book</span> »</a></div></div></td> </tr></table><div id="summary-second-column"></div></div></div></div></div><div class=vertical_module_list_row><h3 class=about_title><a name="search_anchor"></a>From inside the book</h3><div id=search class=about_content><form action=/books?source=gbs_search_r&cad=1 id=search_form method=get> <input type=hidden name="output" value="html_text"><input type=hidden name="id" value="_4qwreIHR_MC"><input type="hidden" name="focus" 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title="Index" height="160" border="1"></a><br/><a class="primary" href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&pg=PA229&vq=Saddam&output=html_text&source=gbs_selected_pages&cad=2" >Index</a></div><div class="selectedpagesthumbnail"><a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&pg=PA221&vq=Saddam&output=html_text&source=gbs_selected_pages&cad=2" ><img src="https://books.google.com.sg/books/content?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&pg=PA221&img=1&zoom=1&sig=ACfU3U1c1efcoUBG9boPOt2fSwRejeCKkQ" alt="References" title="References" height="160" border="1"></a><br/><a class="primary" href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&pg=PA221&vq=Saddam&output=html_text&source=gbs_selected_pages&cad=2" >References</a></div><div style="clear:both;"></div></div></div></div><div class=vertical_module_list_row><h3 class=about_title><a name="toc_anchor"></a>Contents</h3><div id=toc class=about_content><div id=toc_v><div class="first_toc_column"><div class="first_toc_pad"><table><tr><td class="toc_entry"><div class="toc_entry"><span style="white-space:nowrap"><span dir=ltr>3050515001pdf</span></span></div></td><td class="toc_number" align=right>1</td></tr><tr><td class="toc_border"> </td><td class="toc_border"></td></tr><tr><td class="toc_entry"><div class="toc_entry"><span style="white-space:nowrap"><span dir=ltr>3050515002pdf</span></span></div></td><td class="toc_number" align=right>15</td></tr><tr><td class="toc_border"> </td><td class="toc_border"></td></tr><tr><td class="toc_entry"><div class="toc_entry"><span style="white-space:nowrap"><span dir=ltr>3050515003pdf</span></span></div></td><td class="toc_number" align=right>123</td></tr><tr><td class="toc_border"> </td><td class="toc_border"></td></tr><tr><td class="toc_entry"><div class="toc_entry"><span style="white-space:nowrap"><span dir=ltr>3050515004pdf</span></span></div></td><td class="toc_number" align=right>156</td></tr><tr><td class="toc_border"> </td><td class="toc_border"></td></tr></table></div></div><div class="second_toc_column"><div class="second_toc_pad"><table><tr><td class="toc_entry"><div class="toc_entry"><span style="white-space:nowrap"><span dir=ltr>3050515BM1Endnotespdf</span></span></div></td><td class="toc_number" align=right>197</td></tr><tr><td class="toc_border"> </td><td class="toc_border"></td></tr><tr><td class="toc_entry"><div class="toc_entry"><a class="primary" href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&pg=PA229&vq=Saddam&output=html_text&source=gbs_toc_r&cad=3" ><span title="3050515Indexpdf" style="white-space:nowrap"><span dir=ltr>3050515Indexpdf</span></span></a></div></td><td class="toc_number" align=right>229</td></tr><tr><td class="toc_border"> </td><td class="toc_border"></td></tr><tr><td class="toc_entry"><div class="toc_entry"><a class="primary" href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&printsec=copyright&vq=Saddam&output=html_text" ><span title="Copyright" 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src="https://books.google.com.sg/books/content?id=OT4aqAAACAAJ&printsec=frontcover&img=1&zoom=5" border="0" height="80"></a></td><td valign=top><div class=resbdy><a class="primary cresbdy" href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=OT4aqAAACAAJ&output=html_text&source=gbs_book_other_versions_r&cad=4"><span dir=ltr>Why Intelligence Fails: Lessons from the Iranian Revolution and the Iraq War</span></a><br><span style="line-height: 1.3em; font-size:-1;"><span><a href="https://www.google.com.sg/search?tbo=p&tbm=bks&q=inauthor:%22Robert+Jervis%22" class="secondary"><span dir=ltr>Robert Jervis</span></a></span><br/><span><span style="color:#999">No preview available</span> - 2010</span><br/></span></div></td><td align=right></td></tr></table></div></div><div class="one-third-column"><div class="crsiwrapper"><table class="rsi" cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 border=0><tr><td class="coverdstd" align="center"><a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=jIlVtQAACAAJ&output=html_text&source=gbs_book_other_versions_r&cad=4" ><img alt="" class="coverthumb hover-card-attach-point" src="https://books.google.com.sg/books/content?id=jIlVtQAACAAJ&printsec=frontcover&img=1&zoom=5" border="0" height="80"></a></td><td valign=top><div class=resbdy><a class="primary cresbdy" href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=jIlVtQAACAAJ&output=html_text&source=gbs_book_other_versions_r&cad=4"><span dir=ltr>Why Intelligence Fails: Lessons from the Iranian Revolution and the Iraq War</span></a><br><span style="line-height: 1.3em; font-size:-1;"><span><a href="https://www.google.com.sg/search?tbo=p&tbm=bks&q=inauthor:%22Robert+Jervis%22" class="secondary"><span dir=ltr>Robert Jervis</span></a></span><br/><span><span style="color:#999">No preview available</span> - 2011</span><br/></span></div></td><td align=right></td></tr></table></div></div><div class="one-third-column"><div class="crsiwrapper"><table class="rsi" cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 border=0><tr><td class="coverdstd" align="center"><a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=jJ2dDgAAQBAJ&output=html_text&source=gbs_book_other_versions_r&cad=4" ><img alt="" class="coverthumb hover-card-attach-point" src="https://books.google.com.sg/books/content?id=jJ2dDgAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&img=1&zoom=5" border="0" height="80"></a></td><td valign=top><div class=resbdy><a class="primary cresbdy" href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=jJ2dDgAAQBAJ&output=html_text&source=gbs_book_other_versions_r&cad=4"><span dir=ltr>Why Intelligence Fails: Lessons from the Iranian Revolution and the Iraq War</span></a><br><span style="line-height: 1.3em; font-size:-1;"><span><a href="https://www.google.com.sg/search?tbo=p&tbm=bks&q=inauthor:%22Robert+Jervis%22" class="secondary"><span dir=ltr>Robert Jervis</span></a></span><br/><span><span style="color:#999">No preview available</span> - 2010</span><br/></span></div></td><td align=right></td></tr></table></div></div><script>(function () {var fn = window['_OC_WSBookList'] || window['_OC_BookList'];fn && fn('book_other_versions', [{"title":"Why Intelligence Fails","authors":"Robert Jervis","bib_key":"ISBN:0801447852","pub_date":"2010","snippet":"Jervis examines the politics and psychology of two of the more spectacular intelligence failures in recent memory: the mistaken belief that the regime of the Shah in Iran was 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id=word_cloud_v><style type="text/css">.cloud9 {color: #7777cc;font-size: 10px;}.cloud8 {color: #6963CC;font-size: 10.5px;}.cloud7 {color: #6057CC;font-size: 11px;}.cloud6 {color: #574BCC;font-size: 11.5px;}.cloud5 {color: #4E3DCC;font-size: 12px;}.cloud4 {color: #4632CC;font-size: 14px;}.cloud3 {color: #3D26CC;font-size: 16px;}.cloud2 {color: #341ACC;font-size: 18px;}.cloud1 {color: #2B0DCC;font-size: 20px;}.cloud0 {color: #2200CC;font-size: 22px;}.cloud {margin-top: 4px;line-height: 24px;}.cloud a {margin-right: 6px;text-decoration: none;}.cloud a:hover {text-decoration: underline;}</style><div class=cloud><a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Agency&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>Agency</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=alternative&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud9"><span dir=ltr>alternative</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=American&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud6"><span dir=ltr>American</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=argued&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud9"><span dir=ltr>argued</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=argument&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud9"><span dir=ltr>argument</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=assessments&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud7"><span dir=ltr>assessments</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=August&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>August</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=behavior&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>behavior</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=belief&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud3"><span dir=ltr>belief</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=British&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud9"><span dir=ltr>British</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Bush&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud9"><span dir=ltr>Bush</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Butler+report&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud3"><span dir=ltr>Butler report</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=CIA%E2%80%99s&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud9"><span dir=ltr>CIA鈥檚</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=conclusion&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>conclusion</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Curveball&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud2"><span dir=ltr>Curveball</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=deception&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud9"><span dir=ltr>deception</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=decision+makers&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud7"><span dir=ltr>decision makers</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=develop&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>develop</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=discussion&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud6"><span dir=ltr>discussion</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=economic&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud9"><span dir=ltr>economic</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Embassy&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud5"><span dir=ltr>Embassy</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=errors&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud9"><span dir=ltr>errors</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=estimates&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud7"><span dir=ltr>estimates</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=evidence&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud6"><span dir=ltr>evidence</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=expected&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud7"><span dir=ltr>expected</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=explained&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud7"><span dir=ltr>explained</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=fact&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud7"><span dir=ltr>fact</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=finished+intelligence&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud7"><span dir=ltr>finished intelligence</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=force&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>force</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Foreign&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud9"><span dir=ltr>Foreign</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Furthermore&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud9"><span dir=ltr>Furthermore</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=George+Tenet&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud4"><span dir=ltr>George Tenet</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=HUMINT&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud4"><span dir=ltr>HUMINT</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=important&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud7"><span dir=ltr>important</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=inferences&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>inferences</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=intel&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud3"><span dir=ltr>intel</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=intelligence+analysts&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud3"><span dir=ltr>intelligence analysts</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Intelligence+and+National&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>Intelligence and National</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Intelligence+Community&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>Intelligence Community</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=intelligence+failure&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud5"><span dir=ltr>intelligence failure</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Iran&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud0"><span dir=ltr>Iran</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Iranian&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud3"><span dir=ltr>Iranian</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Iranian+Revolution&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud3"><span dir=ltr>Iranian Revolution</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Iraq&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud2"><span dir=ltr>Iraq</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Iraq%E2%80%99s&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud9"><span dir=ltr>Iraq鈥檚</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Iraqi&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud7"><span dir=ltr>Iraqi</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=issues&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud9"><span dir=ltr>issues</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Jack+Davis&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud4"><span dir=ltr>Jack Davis</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=judgment&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud7"><span dir=ltr>judgment</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Khomeini&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud4"><span dir=ltr>Khomeini</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=lack&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud9"><span dir=ltr>lack</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=liberalization&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>liberalization</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=ligence&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud6"><span dir=ltr>ligence</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=lines+redacted&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud6"><span dir=ltr>lines redacted</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=military&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>military</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=moderates&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud7"><span dir=ltr>moderates</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=National+Intelligence&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>National Intelligence</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=National+Intelligence+Estimate&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud4"><span dir=ltr>National Intelligence Estimate</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=National+Security&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>National Security</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=NFAC&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud3"><span dir=ltr>NFAC</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=NFAC%E2%80%99s&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>NFAC鈥檚</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=noted&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud7"><span dir=ltr>noted</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=nuclear&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>nuclear</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=October&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>October</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=officials&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud5"><span dir=ltr>officials</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=opposition&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud5"><span dir=ltr>opposition</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=policymakers&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud5"><span dir=ltr>policymakers</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=political&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud3"><span dir=ltr>political</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=politicization&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>politicization</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=possible&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud9"><span dir=ltr>possible</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=postmortem&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud6"><span dir=ltr>postmortem</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=President&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud9"><span dir=ltr>President</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=pressure&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>pressure</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=problem&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud6"><span dir=ltr>problem</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=produced&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud7"><span dir=ltr>produced</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=question&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>question</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=reason&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud7"><span dir=ltr>reason</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=reforms&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>reforms</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=regime&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud6"><span dir=ltr>regime</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=religious+leaders&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud7"><span dir=ltr>religious leaders</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=retrospect&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>retrospect</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=revolution&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>revolution</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Robert+Jervis&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud3"><span dir=ltr>Robert Jervis</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=role&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>role</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Saddam&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud3"><span dir=ltr>Saddam</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=SAVAK&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud2"><span dir=ltr>SAVAK</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=September+1978&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud7"><span dir=ltr>September 1978</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Shah&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud0"><span dir=ltr>Shah</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Shah%E2%80%99s&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud2"><span dir=ltr>Shah鈥檚</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Sherman+Kent&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud3"><span dir=ltr>Sherman Kent</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=situation&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud9"><span dir=ltr>situation</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Soviet&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud5"><span dir=ltr>Soviet</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=SSCI&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud7"><span dir=ltr>SSCI</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=surprising&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud9"><span dir=ltr>surprising</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Tabriz&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud4"><span dir=ltr>Tabriz</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=Tehran&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud0"><span dir=ltr>Tehran</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=tion&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud6"><span dir=ltr>tion</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=understand&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>understand</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=United&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud7"><span dir=ltr>United</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=University+Press&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud6"><span dir=ltr>University Press</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=unrest&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud9"><span dir=ltr>unrest</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=weapons&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>weapons</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=WMD+Commission&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud2"><span dir=ltr>WMD Commission</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=WMD+programs&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud7"><span dir=ltr>WMD programs</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=wrong&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud9"><span dir=ltr>wrong</span></a> <a href="https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&q=York&output=html_text&source=gbs_word_cloud_r&cad=5" class="cloud8"><span dir=ltr>York</span></a></div></div></div></div><div class=vertical_module_list_row><h3 class=about_title><a name="about_author_anchor"></a>About the author <span style="color:#666; font-weight:normal">(2010)</span></h3><div id=about_author class=about_content><div id=about_author_v><div class=textmodulecontent><p>Robert Jervis is Adlai E. Stevenson Professor of International Politics at Columbia University. He is the author of many books, including <i>The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution</i>, also from Cornell, and, most recently, <i>American Foreign Policy in a New Era.</i></p></div></div></div></div><div class=vertical_module_list_row><h3 class="about_title">Bibliographic information</h3><div class="about_content" id="metadata_content" style="padding-bottom:.3em"><div class="metadata_sectionwrap"><table id="metadata_content_table"><tr class="metadata_row"><td class="metadata_label">Title</td><td class="metadata_value"><span dir=ltr>Why Intelligence Fails: Lessons from the Iranian Revolution and the Iraq War</span><br><a class="primary" href="https://www.google.com.sg/search?tbo=p&tbm=bks&q=bibliogroup:%22Cornell+Studies+in+Security+Affairs%22&source=gbs_metadata_r&cad=7"><i><span dir=ltr>Cornell Studies in Security Affairs</span></i></a></td></tr><tr class="metadata_row"><td class="metadata_label"><span dir=ltr>Author</span></td><td class="metadata_value"><a class="primary" href="https://www.google.com.sg/search?tbo=p&tbm=bks&q=inauthor:%22Robert+Jervis%22&source=gbs_metadata_r&cad=7"><span dir=ltr>Robert Jervis</span></a></td></tr><tr class="metadata_row"><td class="metadata_label"><span dir=ltr>Publisher</span></td><td class="metadata_value"><span dir=ltr>Cornell University Press, 2010</span></td></tr><tr class="metadata_row"><td class="metadata_label"><span dir=ltr>ISBN</span></td><td class="metadata_value"><span dir=ltr>0801457610, 9780801457616</span></td></tr><tr class="metadata_row"><td class="metadata_label"><span dir=ltr>Length</span></td><td class="metadata_value"><span dir=ltr>248 pages</span></td></tr><tr class="metadata_row"><td class="metadata_label"><span dir=ltr>Subjects</span></td><td class="metadata_value"><div style="display:inline" itemscope itemtype="http://data-vocabulary.org/Breadcrumb"><a class="primary" href="https://www.google.com.sg/search?tbo=p&tbm=bks&q=subject:%22Political+Science%22" itemprop="url" dir=ltr><span itemprop="title">Political Science</span></a></div> › <div style="display:inline" itemscope itemtype="http://data-vocabulary.org/Breadcrumb"><a class="primary" href="https://www.google.com.sg/search?tbo=p&tbm=bks&q=subject:%22Political+Science+World%22" itemprop="url" dir=ltr><span itemprop="title">World</span></a></div> › <div style="display:inline" itemscope itemtype="http://data-vocabulary.org/Breadcrumb"><a class="primary" href="https://www.google.com.sg/search?tbo=p&tbm=bks&q=subject:%22Political+Science+World+Middle+Eastern%22" itemprop="url" dir=ltr><span itemprop="title">Middle Eastern</span></a></div><br><br><a class="primary" href="https://www.google.com.sg/search?tbo=p&tbm=bks&q=subject:%22Political+Science+/+Intelligence+%26+Espionage%22&source=gbs_metadata_r&cad=7"><span dir=ltr>Political Science / Intelligence & Espionage</span></a><br/><a class="primary" href="https://www.google.com.sg/search?tbo=p&tbm=bks&q=subject:%22Political+Science+/+Security+(National+%26+International)%22&source=gbs_metadata_r&cad=7"><span dir=ltr>Political Science / Security (National & International)</span></a><br/><a class="primary" href="https://www.google.com.sg/search?tbo=p&tbm=bks&q=subject:%22Political+Science+/+World+/+Middle+Eastern%22&source=gbs_metadata_r&cad=7"><span dir=ltr>Political Science / World / Middle Eastern</span></a></td></tr><tr class="metadata_row"><td> </td><td> </td></tr><tr class="metadata_row"><td class="metadata_label"><span dir=ltr>Export Citation</span></td><td class="metadata_value"><a class="gb-button " href="https://books.google.com.sg/books/download/Why_Intelligence_Fails.bibtex?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&output=bibtex"><span dir=ltr>BiBTeX</span></a> <a class="gb-button " href="https://books.google.com.sg/books/download/Why_Intelligence_Fails.enw?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&output=enw"><span dir=ltr>EndNote</span></a> <a class="gb-button " href="https://books.google.com.sg/books/download/Why_Intelligence_Fails.ris?id=_4qwreIHR_MC&output=ris"><span dir=ltr>RefMan</span></a></td></tr></table></div><div style="clear:both"></div></div></div><div id="footer_table" style="font-size:83%;text-align:center;position:relative;top:20px;height:4.5em;margin-top:2em"><div style="margin-bottom:8px"><a href="/intl/en/googlebooks/about.html"><nobr><nobr>About Google Books</nobr></nobr></a> - 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