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Mysteel周报：周内宏观利好与镍市提振，不锈钢价格止跌上扬（5.13-5.17）-我的钢铁网
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.article-text .aplayer-played,.aplayer-bar-wrap,.aplayer-bar,.aplayer-controller{overflow:unset !important;} </style> </head> <body data="//bxg.mysteel.com" breed="010216"> <div class="page-group"> <div class="page page-current"> <!-- 头部 --> <header class="bar bar-nav"> <hgroup> <div class="pull-left logoCon"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/" class="logo" external></a> <a href="//m.steelphone.com/xz/?fr=01163" class="app-enter-logo"></a> </div> <h1 class="title">周报</h1> <a href="//m.mysteel.com/nav.html" external class="app-search"></a> <span class="top-login-state"> <a href="javascript:;" onclick="window.location.href='https://passport.mysteel.com/m/?site=abc&location='+encodeURIComponent('公用头部')+'&callback='+encodeURI(document.location.href)" external class="app-login calabash h-login">登录/注册</a> <a href="javascript:;" onclick="window.location.href='http://passport.mysteel.com/logout.jsp?site=mysteel&callback='+encodeURI(document.location.href)" external class="app-login" 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class="clearfix"> <li> <a href="https://m.mybxg.com/" onclick="showLog('不锈钢-文章详细页','不锈钢')" external>不锈钢</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://m.mybxg.com/market/p-968-----01021601-0--------1.html" onclick="showLog('不锈钢-文章详细页','卷板')" external>卷板</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://m.mybxg.com/market/p-968-----01021602-0--------1.html" onclick="showLog('不锈钢-文章详细页','管材')" external>管材</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://m.mybxg.com/market/p-968-----01021603-0--------1.html" onclick="showLog('不锈钢-文章详细页','型材')" external>型材</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://m.mybxg.com/market/p-968-----01021604-0--------1.html" onclick="showLog('不锈钢-文章详细页','带材')" external>带材</a> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="h-nav"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com" rel="nofollow" external>首页</a> > <span>正文</span> </div> <h2 class="article-title" style="color:#000000">Mysteel周报：周内宏观利好与镍市提振，不锈钢价格止跌上扬（5.13-5.17）</h2> <p class="infor"> <span class='source'>2024-05-17 20:00</span> <span class="time" style='margin-right: 0.5rem'>来源：我的钢铁网</span> </p> <article class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="6722" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/17/d5b2a547045f446ea8e39b38e8d48fd7.png" width="600" height="160" /></p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/17/c2f9bfc2eef243e78ec139f1c0cbc440.png" width="600" height="160" /></p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/17/1e6cdb4499154a0181c019a8684b99cf.png" width="600" height="196" /></p> <p>Part.1 市场概述</p> <p>周内宏观利好与<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/nie/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镍</a>市提振，<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢</a>价格止跌上扬</p> <p>本周<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢价格</a>震荡偏弱运行。周初，原料价格支撑下现货价格暂稳；周中，钢厂盘价下滑以及宏旺新签订合同执行新规格加价表，现货价格松动，市场观望情绪较浓，询单表现较为平淡，成交以刚需采购或散单为主，成交多集中于低价资源。后随着宏观利多情绪支撑以及镍产业供应过剩局面有所改善，伦镍、沪镍盘面齐涨，<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢期货</a>亦跟涨，现货价格随之上涨，涨后市场询单及成交有一定回暖，市场低价资源亦有所减少。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/17/ac120d148db34fbd81a4401d951486bb.png" width="557" height="216" /></p> <p>宏观政策面利好消息刺激期货盘面上扬，然而经济传导具有时滞性，短期能否迎来边际改善仍待验证。基本面，尽管周内镍铁成交价涨至1000元/镍，原料价格上移对不锈钢形成支撑，镍产业短期存有向好预期，与此同时铬铁端因铬矿上涨叠加零售氛围较好，短期价格亦坚挺，但不锈钢价格上行驱动力稍显不足，主因在于当前供强需弱的局面仍未改，需求端现阶段下游采购意愿偏弱，市场观望情绪较浓；而供应端5月粗钢排产增量且维持高位，加之仓单水平居高，加剧市场资源消化压力。叠加周内在途海漂量增多，后市到货增多，而市场商家即将面临月末结算压力，为回笼资金或下放价格以促成交，因此预计下周现货价格震荡偏弱运行概率较大。</p> <p>Part.2 热点关注</p> <p>1、5月13日，本周江苏无<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0207-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>锡</a>市场德龙钢厂304不锈钢<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>热轧</a>五尺13900，较上周跌200，返利待定。（单位：元/吨）</p> <p>2、5月14日，青山开出316L冷热轧期货指导价格，甬金316L<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010104-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>冷轧</a>卷毛基24900，青山316L热轧卷24300，6月期货，报量待批，以上盘价较上一次跌100。（单位：元/吨）</p> <p>3、5月14日，江苏德龙开出6月期货价格，316L冷轧为24700，跌100，报量待批。（单位：元/吨）</p> <p>4、5月15日，青山代理304冷热轧报价下调100，其中304上克/宏旺/永旺/瑞浦四尺基价13700，304甬金四尺基价13900，304甬金五尺基价14000，304冷轧窄带13400，30478冷轧窄带12900，304热轧大板13430，30478热轧大板12900，5-6月期货，报量待批。（单位：元/吨）</p> <p>5、5月15日，江苏德龙开出6月304冷轧期货价格为四尺13650，五尺13700，跌50，报量待批。6月316L冷轧期货为24600，跌100，报量待批。（单位：元/吨）</p> <p>6、5月15日，青山开出热轧期货指导价格：304热轧卷13300，较上一次跌200；316L热轧卷24100，较上一次跌300，报量待批。（单位：元/吨）</p> <p>7、5月15日，青山开出304冷热轧期货指导价格，其中304上克/宏旺/永旺/瑞浦四尺基价13600，304甬金四尺基价13800，304热轧卷13300，报量待批，以上盘价均较5月14日跌200。（单位：元/吨）</p> <p>8、5月16日，江苏德龙开出6月304冷轧卷期货价格为13600，平，返利100，报量待批。（单位：元/吨）</p> <p>Part.3 价格预测</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/17/63960a5d08684ff193e3500f99129599.png" width="568" height="666" /></p> <p style="text-align: left;">注：不锈钢201冷轧卷板价格以J1 1.0mm毛边价格为参照；不锈钢304冷轧卷板价格以民营2.0mm毛边价格为参照;不锈钢430冷轧卷板价格以太钢2.0mm切边价格为参照；不锈钢304圆钢以青山圆钢直径65-130mm价格为参照。<br />Part.4 不锈钢卷板市场</p> <p>4.1 200系</p> <p>本周200系冷热轧板卷价格下跌50元/吨。近期市场到货量恢复正常，本周市场200系库存呈现增量，但市场整体交投氛围一般，成交量级偏低迷，部分商家下探报价以促成交，但实际出货仍不理想，成交以散单交付为主。 5月17日，201（J1）冷轧一体化工艺利润率-2.49%，较前期跌幅扩大。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/17/e5e32f855ef844b19626571a7c2ee3b9.png" width="557" height="103" /></p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/17/4f81956188124e7ab6d28998d592ed2c.png" width="547" height="375" /></p> <p> </p> <p>4.2 300系</p> <p>无锡304民营冷轧价格较上周涨50元/吨报至13650-13700元/吨，无锡304民营热轧较上周跌50-100元/吨报至13400-13500元/吨。 300系现货价格震荡偏弱运行。周初，因原料成本支撑犹存，商家调价意愿不高，然而市场询单氛围偏淡，下游需求未见明显起色，订单成交量级有限；周中，随着不锈钢期货盘下挫以及钢厂盘价较大幅度下调，市场采购信心受阻，成交寥寥且成交向低价资源靠拢；周尾，随着多重宏观利多因素推动市场情绪升温以及沪镍、伦镍以及不锈钢期货盘面齐涨，<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢现货</a>价格回升，涨后询盘活跃度有所提升，部分前期观望订单落于实地，整体成交表现尚可观。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/17/dc52c13d7a47450f9f4b6e19eca426c5.png" width="552" height="389" /></p> <p>4.3 300系</p> <p>据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>即期成本&利润模型，本周304不锈钢原料中高碳铬铁价格、304废不锈钢价格、纯<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/nie/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镍价格</a>、高镍铁、电解锰有不同程度的上涨，不锈钢炼钢成本有所上升。在冶炼不锈钢工艺中，外购高镍铁工艺、一体化工艺上涨，废不锈钢工艺小幅上涨。 近期不锈钢现货成交较平淡，原料端价格有所上移，现货方面价格缓步上涨致使炼钢利润有所回落。截至5月17日，废不锈钢工艺冶炼304冷轧利润率1.43%；外购高镍铁工艺冶炼304冷轧利润率0.33%；自产高镍铁工艺冶炼304冷轧利润率1.17%。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/17/78c7dae09c4f48428699d7246e15b381.png" width="557" height="128" /></p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/17/a31c16d0d7af4d5787dae7e68ae72d44.png" width="551" height="198" /></p> <p>4.4 400系</p> <p>原料成本上涨，400系不锈钢价格表现较坚挺。上半周佛山市场商家库存压力不大，稳价候单为主，现货市场成交良好，而无锡市场多为刚需采购为主。下半周，市场询盘及成交表现偏弱势，部分规格报价有所下探。周内400系整体表现较平淡，出货量级有限。</p> <p>5月17日，430冷轧即期利润-315元/吨，430冷轧利润率-3.84%。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/17/142369e32eca49e9a894f3fc1ac6c825.png" width="557" height="77" /></p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/17/126ec19d1dd84a38a0bd12de6bf591cb.png" width="552" height="363" /></p> <p> </p> <p>Part.5 不锈钢管型材市场</p> <p><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010901-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>无缝管</a>：周内询单氛围回暖，但大多是比价议价，商家低价出货意愿不强，实际成交一般。现主流管厂多对后市看空，市场心态不稳，下游采购仍有延期。谈及后市，管材市场受原料端影响，资源补充较为缓慢，商家谨慎观望为主。</p> <p><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010903-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>焊管</a>：周内价格的下调加重下游客户的观望情绪，下单多有犹豫，订单成交情况也随之减弱，市场走货不畅。周内由于下游需求乏力，锁货需求减弱，市场交易氛围低迷，成交端几无突破。考虑到原料端暂无强劲的实质利多支撑，但厂家基本都保持低库存运转，挺价心态较为浓厚。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/17/2296b36d49e7478f983a6e0605275330.png" width="547" height="181" /></p> <p>圆钢：周内圆钢盘价涨跌互现，不锈钢相关原材料有涨有跌，市场总体成交集中在小棒资源及大棒资源的期货订单上，下游在订货时多选择多方询价后试图议价，预计下周不锈圆钢价格持稳震荡为主。</p> <p>线材：戴南市场受原料价格支撑及现货库存情况影响，部分订单有让利成交，主流钢厂调价谨慎，引发市场商家观望情绪升温，下游入场采购以刚需为主；温州市场主流钢厂周内开盘，代理商陆续拿货，市场现货资源开始流通，仍有报数登记情况，原料成本支撑下商家小幅让利出货，终端需求难以支撑，成交多以刚需期货订单为主。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/17/671260505cb041eea65fce1d8ec35973.png" 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