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href="https://bpi.com/stress-tests/" title="Federal Reserve Annual Stress Test" class="breadcrumb-item"> Federal Reserve Annual Stress Test </a> </div> </section> <section class="container-1240 wysiwyg"> <div class="wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-1 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow" style="flex-basis:55%"> <p>The Federal Reserve conducts an annual stress test each year to determine whether banks are adequately capitalized to withstand adverse economic conditions. These stress tests have become an important driver of the capital levels for banks subject to the exercise. The following resources outline BPI’s analyses over the last several years related to both the published scenarios and the results.</p> <section class="block-people-posts-grid"> <a class="section-anchor" id="our-experts"></a> <h2 class="block-title"> Our Experts </h2> <div class="people-grid-list"> <a href="https://bpi.com/people/francisco-covas/" class="people-grid-item" title="Francisco Covas"> <div class="col-image"> <div class="thumbnail" style="background-image: url(https://bpi.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/180710_BPi_Headshot-Resize_Cara-Camacho-300x300.png)"></div> </div> <div class="col-content"> <div class="person-title"> Francisco Covas </div> <div class="person-position"> Executive Vice President & Head of Research </div> </div> </a> <a href="https://bpi.com/people/brett-waxman/" class="people-grid-item" title="Brett Waxman"> <div class="col-image"> <div class="thumbnail" style="background-image: url(https://bpi.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Waxman_Brett-200x300.jpg)"></div> </div> <div class="col-content"> <div class="person-title"> Brett Waxman </div> <div class="person-position"> Senior Vice President, Senior Associate General Counsel </div> </div> </a> <a href="https://bpi.com/people/sarah-flowers/" class="people-grid-item" title="Sarah Flowers"> <div class="col-image"> <div class="thumbnail" style="background-image: url(https://bpi.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Sarah-Flowers_headshot-273x338-c-default-242x300.jpg)"></div> </div> <div class="col-content"> <div class="person-title"> Sarah Flowers </div> <div class="person-position"> Senior Vice President, Senior Associate General Counsel, Regulatory Affairs </div> </div> </a> </div> </section> </div> <div class="wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow" style="flex-basis:30%"> <div class="wp-block-group hide-on-mobile has-light-gray-background-color has-background is-vertical is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-2 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-group alignfull has-light-gray-color has-independence-background-color has-text-color has-background"><div class="wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow"> <div style="height:5px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <h3 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-center" id="schedule-a-visit" style="line-height:1.15">Sign Up for Alerts</h3> <div class="wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100 is-style-outline is-style-outline--1"><a class="wp-block-button__link wp-element-button" href="https://bpi.com/sign-up">Subscribe</a></div> </div> </div></div> <div style="height:0px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer wp-container-content-1"></div> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots"/> <div style="height:0px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer wp-container-content-2"></div> <h4 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-left" id="resources-871544d2-e61a-406f-9c06-a31193825332">Resources</h4> <div class="wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100 is-style-outline is-style-outline--2"><a class="wp-block-button__link has-light-gray-background-color has-background wp-element-button" href="#year2024dfast" rel="">2024</a></div> <div class="wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100 is-style-outline is-style-outline--3"><a class="wp-block-button__link has-light-gray-background-color has-background wp-element-button" href="#year2023dfast" rel="">2023</a></div> <div class="wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100 is-style-outline is-style-outline--4"><a class="wp-block-button__link wp-element-button" href="#year2022dfast">2022</a></div> <div class="wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100 is-style-outline is-style-outline--5"><a class="wp-block-button__link wp-element-button" href="#year2021dfast">2021</a></div> <div class="wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100 is-style-outline is-style-outline--6"><a class="wp-block-button__link wp-element-button" href="#year2020dfast">2020</a></div> <div class="wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100 is-style-outline is-style-outline--7"><a class="wp-block-button__link wp-element-button" href="#year2019dfast">2019 and earlier</a></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <h3 class="wp-block-heading has-light-gray-color has-independence-background-color has-text-color has-background" id="year2024dfast">2024</h3> <p>Based on the 2024 stress test results, we expect a 30-basis-point increase in banks’ capital requirements on average. The increase varies by bank category, with Category I banks (or the GSIBs) projected to see the largest increase of around 50 basis points. Category II-III banks are expected to see the next largest increase of around 40 basis points, while Category IV banks are looking at an increase of about 30-basis-point increase.</p> <p>The Federal Reserve’s explanation of the stress test results highlights significant changes in banks’ financial condition over the past year, accounting for the increase in capital requirements. Two key factors emerged in 2023:</p> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>First, banks experienced a decline in noninterest income coupled with a rise in noninterest expenses. As the performance of financial institutions in the previous year is carried forward in supervisory models regardless of the severely adverse scenario, this year’s stress tests reflect lower noninterest income and higher noninterest expenses compared to the previous year’s projections.</li> <li>Second, banks reported a deterioration in loan quality, particularly in commercial and industrial loans and credit card portfolios. This decline in credit quality at the outset of this year’s stress tests resulted in higher projected loan losses throughout the stress planning horizon.</li> </ul> <p><strong>The stress scenario assumed:</strong></p> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>A 6.3-percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate (6.4 p.p. in 2023).</li> <li>A 40 percent drop in commercial real estate (CRE) prices (40 percent in 2023).</li> <li>A 4.1-percentage-point increase in corporate BBB spreads (3.6 p.p. in 2023).</li> <li>A 55 percent drop in the stock market (45 percent in 2023).</li> <li>An 8.2 percent fall in real GDP (8.75 percent in 2023).</li> <li>A 36 percent decline in house prices (38 percent in 2023).</li> <li>A 70 peak value in the volatility index (75 in 2023).</li> </ul> <div class="wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-2 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-column has-light-gray-color has-yellow-orange-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-17e58981c6e2b58b7601451627b4f029 is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow" style="padding-top:2em;padding-right:2em;padding-bottom:2em;padding-left:2em"> <h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="single" style="font-size:40px"><strong>DFAST 202</strong>4</h2> <p class="has-normal-font-size" style="line-height:1.5"><strong>Scenario Analysis</strong></p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-text-color has-css-opacity has-background is-style-wide" style="background-color:#000000;color:#000000"/> <div class="wp-block-buttons alignfull is-horizontal is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-3 wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100 is-style-fill"><a class="wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-text-color has-background no-border-radius wp-element-button" href="https://bpi.com/deep-dive-dfast-2024-stress-test-scenarios/" style="background-color:#000000" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Read</a></div> </div> </div> <div class="wp-block-column has-yellow-orange-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-9169730f11368502aeacc66e232be34a is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow" style="color:#000000;padding-top:2em;padding-right:2em;padding-bottom:2em;padding-left:2em"> <h2 class="wp-block-heading has-light-gray-color has-text-color" id="single" style="font-size:40px"><strong>DFAST 202</strong>4</h2> <p class="has-normal-font-size" style="line-height:1.5"><strong>Results Analysis</strong></p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-text-color has-css-opacity has-background is-style-wide" style="background-color:#000000;color:#000000"/> <div class="wp-block-buttons alignfull is-horizontal is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-4 wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100"><a class="wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-text-color has-background no-border-radius wp-element-button" href="https://bpi.com/bpi-statement-on-stress-tests/" style="background-color:#000000" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Read</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <h4 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Other Content:</strong></h4> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/bpis-stress-testing-testimony-and-2024-stress-test-results/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">BPI’s Stress Testing Testimony and 2024 Stress Test Results – Bank Policy Institute</a><a href="https://bpi.com/stress-testing-a-response-to-professor-daniel-tarullos-recent-working-paper/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a></li> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/stress-testing-a-response-to-professor-daniel-tarullos-recent-working-paper/">Stress Testing: A Response to Professor Daniel Tarullo’s Recent Working Paper – Bank Policy Institute (bpi.com)</a></li> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/bpi-statement-on-stress-tests/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a><a href="https://bpi.com/bpi-statement-on-stress-tests/">BPI Statement on Stress Tests – Bank Policy Institute</a></li> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/bpis-francisco-covas-in-congressional-testimony-stress-tests-need-more-transparency/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a><a href="https://bpi.com/bpis-francisco-covas-in-congressional-testimony-stress-tests-need-more-transparency/">BPI’s Francisco Covas in Congressional Testimony: Stress Tests Need More Transparency – Bank Policy Institute</a></li> </ul> <div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <h3 class="wp-block-heading has-light-gray-color has-independence-background-color has-text-color has-background" id="year2023dfast">2023</h3> <p>The 2023 Federal Reserve stress test results demonstrate that large banks in the U.S. are highly resilient to a severe stress scenario. Overall, the maximum decline in the aggregate common equity tier 1 capital ratio – a key metric in the test – decreased compared to last year’s tests. This decrease will likely translate into modestly lower capital requirements for the banks subject to the test.</p> <p>The 2023 stress test scenario surpasses the severity of any recession since World War II, including the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. Given that the industry has just endured a real stress test, we appreciate the Federal Reserve’s decision not to introduce additional macroeconomic scenarios in this year’s stress tests. The Fed’s severely adverse scenario properly illustrates the effects of a highly severe recession, leading to substantial capital depletion for most participating banks. Conversely, a realistically framed scenario featuring rising interest rates, coupled with less marked economic and asset price declines, would lead to less capital depletion than the existing scenario, adding little new insight to the overall results. The examination process seems to be the most effective safeguard against interest rate risk, and we anticipate the development of improved guidance for this process.</p> <p><strong>The stress scenario assumed:</strong></p> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>A nearly 6½ percentage point increase in the unemployment rate.</li> <li>An 8¾ percent fall in real GDP.</li> <li>A 3½ percentage point increase in corporate BBB spreads.</li> <li>A 38 percent decline in house prices.</li> <li>A 40 percent drop in commercial real estate prices.</li> <li>A 45 percent drop in the stock market.</li> <li>A 75 peak value in the volatility index.</li> </ul> <div class="wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-3 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-column has-light-gray-color has-yellow-orange-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-fcb5cc994822a53f6bfe1f10f4f18d4f is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow" style="padding-top:2em;padding-right:2em;padding-bottom:2em;padding-left:2em"> <h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="single" style="font-size:40px"><strong>DFAST 2023</strong></h2> <p class="has-normal-font-size" style="line-height:1.5"><strong>Scenario Analysis</strong></p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-text-color has-css-opacity has-background is-style-wide" style="background-color:#000000;color:#000000"/> <div class="wp-block-buttons alignfull is-horizontal is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-5 wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100 is-style-fill"><a class="wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-text-color has-background no-border-radius wp-element-button" href="https://bpi.com/deep-dive-dfast-2023-stress-test-scenarios/" style="background-color:#000000">Read</a></div> </div> </div> <div class="wp-block-column has-yellow-orange-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-56613e8aeaf5bbb25e98ab63ec4be71b is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow" style="color:#000000;padding-top:2em;padding-right:2em;padding-bottom:2em;padding-left:2em"> <h2 class="wp-block-heading has-light-gray-color has-text-color" id="single" style="font-size:40px"><strong>DFAST 202</strong>3</h2> <p class="has-normal-font-size" style="line-height:1.5"><strong>Results Analysis</strong></p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-text-color has-css-opacity has-background is-style-wide" style="background-color:#000000;color:#000000"/> <div class="wp-block-buttons alignfull is-horizontal is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-6 wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100"><a class="wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-text-color has-background no-border-radius wp-element-button" href="https://bpi.com/bpi-statement-on-the-2023-federal-reserve-stress-test-results/" style="background-color:#000000">Read</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <h3 class="wp-block-heading has-light-gray-color has-independence-background-color has-text-color has-background" id="year2022dfast">2022</h3> <p>Despite the sharp deterioration in economic and financial conditions assumed in the 2022 stress test scenario, banks still had more than twice the minimum capital required.</p> <p>The tougher assumptions resulted in higher projected loan losses compared with 2021 stress tests. Lower allowances for credit losses at the start of the stress tests raised projected provisions for loan losses further. For the banks subject to the global market shock, the more severe shocks in this year’s scenario drove increased trading and counterparty losses. By contrast, projections of pre-provision net revenue rose compared with the 2021 test. However, the increase in banks’ balance sheets during the pandemic continued to cause the Federal Reserve’s projections to overstate noninterest expenses (including losses from operational-risk events) and a few fee income components.</p> <p>Overall, the maximum decline in the aggregate common equity tier 1 capital ratio increased 0.3 percent compared with DFAST 2021.</p> <p><strong>The stress scenario assumed:</strong></p> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>A 6.2 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, and one of unprecedented suddenness.</li> <li>A 7.8 percent fall in real GDP.</li> <li>A 3.5 percentage point increase in BBB spreads.</li> <li>A 26 percent decline in house prices.</li> <li>A 35 percent drop in commercial real estate prices.</li> <li>A 50 percent fall in the stock market index.</li> </ul> <div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <div class="wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-4 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-column has-light-gray-color has-yellow-orange-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-a3d4d19e87a6c7d7cc2e6b660758dac0 is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow" style="padding-top:2em;padding-right:2em;padding-bottom:2em;padding-left:2em"> <h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="single" style="font-size:40px"><strong>DFAST 2022</strong></h2> <p class="has-normal-font-size" style="line-height:1.5"><strong>Scenario Analysis</strong></p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-text-color has-css-opacity has-background is-style-wide" style="background-color:#000000;color:#000000"/> <div class="wp-block-buttons alignfull is-horizontal is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-7 wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100 is-style-fill"><a class="wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-text-color has-background no-border-radius wp-element-button" href="https://bpi.com/deep-dive-dfast-2022-stress-test-scenarios/" style="background-color:#000000">Read</a></div> </div> </div> <div class="wp-block-column has-yellow-orange-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-8a5dac3e297529a8016076e902373f5c is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow" style="color:#000000;padding-top:2em;padding-right:2em;padding-bottom:2em;padding-left:2em"> <h2 class="wp-block-heading has-light-gray-color has-text-color" id="single" style="font-size:40px"><strong>DFAST 2022</strong></h2> <p class="has-normal-font-size" style="line-height:1.5"><strong>Results Analysis</strong></p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-text-color has-css-opacity has-background is-style-wide" style="background-color:#000000;color:#000000"/> <div class="wp-block-buttons alignfull is-horizontal is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-8 wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100"><a class="wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-text-color has-background no-border-radius wp-element-button" href="https://bpi.com/dfast-2022-volatility-capital-increases-and-the-implications-for-the-u-s-economy/" style="background-color:#000000">Read</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <h4 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Other Content:</strong></h4> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/bpi-comments-on-federal-reserve-implementation-of-capital-assessments-and-stress-testing-reports/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">BPI Comments on Federal Reserve Implementation of Capital Assessments and Stress Testing Reports</a></li> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/bpi-statement-on-the-federal-reserves-release-of-the-2022-stress-test-results/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">BPI Statement on the Federal Reserve’s Release of the 2022 Stress Test Results</a></li> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/misunderstanding-the-feds-stress-test-cost-consequences/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Misunderstanding the Fed’s Stress Test: Cost & Consequences</a></li> </ul> <div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <h3 class="wp-block-heading has-light-gray-color has-independence-background-color has-text-color has-background" id="year2021dfast">2021</h3> <p>Due to the elevated capital levels of banks, all banks remained well above minimum capital requirements. As the Federal Reserve observes in its summary the average minimum common equity tier 1 capital ratio is more than double the banks’ minimum requirement. As a result, those banks will no longer be subject to restrictions on capital distributions beyond those envisioned by the stress capital buffer framework. These results also reflect the additional $90 billion in common equity tier 1 capital and $70 billion in allowances for credit losses that stress-tested banks have accumulated since the onset of the COVID event.</p> <p><strong>The stress scenario assumed:</strong></p> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>The unemployment rate would climb to 10.8 percent, exceeding the peak level reached in 2020’s June stress tests.</li> <li>Commercial real estate prices drop 40 percent over the planning horizon; and</li> <li>The stock market declines 55 percent. </li> </ul> <div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <div class="wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-5 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-column has-yellow-orange-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-16c593c6b7b9f5b5251e21f6443fdb31 is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow" style="color:#000000;padding-top:2em;padding-right:2em;padding-bottom:2em;padding-left:2em"> <h2 class="wp-block-heading has-light-gray-color has-text-color" id="single" style="font-size:40px"><strong>DFAST 2021 Stress Tests</strong></h2> <p class="has-normal-font-size" style="line-height:1.5"><strong>Results Analysis</strong></p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-text-color has-css-opacity has-background is-style-wide" style="background-color:#000000;color:#000000"/> <div class="wp-block-buttons alignfull is-horizontal is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-9 wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100 is-style-fill"><a class="wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-text-color has-background no-border-radius wp-element-button" href="https://bpi.com/dfast-2021-stress-tests-banks-remain-highly-resilient-but-bank-specific-results-are-hard-to-predict/" style="background-color:#000000">Read</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <h4 class="wp-block-heading">Other Content:</h4> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/reserve-balances-noninterest-expenses-and-bank-performance-in-the-stress-tests/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Reserve Balances, Noninterest Expenses, and Bank Performance in the Stress Tests</a> </li> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/federal-reserves-2021-dfast-results-again-demonstrate-resiliency-of-large-u-s-banks/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Federal Reserve’s 2021 DFAST Results Again Demonstrate Resiliency of Large U.S. Banks</a> </li> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/estimating-the-implicit-capital-charges-in-the-stress-tests/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Estimating the Implicit Capital Charges in the Stress Tests</a></li> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/fix-bank-leverage-requirements-now-in-advance-of-upcoming-treasury-market-stress/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Fix Bank Leverage Requirements Now, in Advance of Upcoming Treasury Market Stress</a> </li> </ul> <div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <h3 class="wp-block-heading has-light-gray-color has-independence-background-color has-text-color has-background" id="year2020dfast">2020</h3> <p>The Federal Reserve conducted two stress tests in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. </p> <p>The early-year stress scenario captured a severe global recession accompanied by vulnerabilities in commercial real estate and corporate debt markets. While the Fed’s sensitivity analysis was extremely severe. 75 percent of banks remained well above their minimum capital requirements at the end of the stress planning horizon.</p> <p><strong>The early-year stress scenario assumed:</strong></p> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>A 6.5 pp increase in the unemployment rate, larger than the 5 pp increase in the financial crisis.</li> <li>A 8.3% fall in real GDP, larger than the 3.9% fall in the crisis.</li> <li>A 4.0 pp increase in BBB spreads, about the same as in the crisis.</li> <li>A 28% decline in house prices, larger than the 22% decline in the crisis.</li> <li>A 35% drop in commercial real estate prices, a bit less than the drop in the crisis.</li> <li>A 50% fall in the stock market, larger than the 45% fall in the crisis.</li> </ul> <p>The Federal Reserve published two stress scenarios (severely adverse and alternative severe) in September for use in the mid-cycle stress tests. The stress test results again demonstrated that large U.S. banks are highly resilient. Although the average maximum decline of regulatory capital ratios in these second stress tests exceeded the decline of capital ratios in the June exercise and two banks approached minimum risk-based requirements, we estimate that the average stress capital buffer would have remained unchanged if the Board had re-calculated SCBs based on these results. Moreover, our analysis of the stress test results indicates that the stress test projections <em>understate</em> the degree of resiliency of large U.S. banks in three ways.</p> <div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <div style="height:10px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <div class="wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-6 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-column has-bright-purple-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-60b8632379e44d2d4588a800e011d9fc is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow" style="color:#000000;padding-top:2em;padding-right:2em;padding-bottom:2em;padding-left:2em"> <h2 class="wp-block-heading has-light-gray-color has-text-color" id="single" style="font-size:40px"><strong>Early-Year</strong></h2> <p class="has-light-gray-color has-text-color has-normal-font-size" style="line-height:1.5"><strong>Scenario Analysis</strong></p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-text-color has-css-opacity has-background is-style-wide" style="background-color:#000000;color:#000000"/> <div class="wp-block-buttons alignfull is-horizontal is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-10 wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100 is-style-fill"><a class="wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-text-color has-background no-border-radius wp-element-button" href="https://bpi.com/the-feds-stress-scenario-remains-very-severe-and-it-is-tougher-than-last-years-test/" style="background-color:#000000">Read</a></div> </div> </div> <div class="wp-block-column has-bright-purple-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-563569767b047b5d2ecc59231f1e5e27 is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow" style="color:#000000;padding-top:2em;padding-right:2em;padding-bottom:2em;padding-left:2em"> <h2 class="wp-block-heading has-light-gray-color has-text-color" id="single" style="font-size:40px"><strong>Early-Year</strong></h2> <p class="has-light-gray-color has-text-color has-normal-font-size" style="line-height:1.5"><strong>Results Analysis</strong></p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-text-color has-css-opacity has-background is-style-wide" style="background-color:#000000;color:#000000"/> <div class="wp-block-buttons alignfull is-horizontal is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-11 wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100"><a class="wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-text-color has-background no-border-radius wp-element-button" href="https://bpi.com/how-tough-was-the-feds-sensitivity-analysis/" style="background-color:#000000">Read</a></div> </div> </div> <div class="wp-block-column has-yellow-orange-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-e3cff97b77675999b61c3a56a00b2d75 is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow" style="color:#000000;padding-top:2em;padding-right:2em;padding-bottom:2em;padding-left:2em"> <h2 class="wp-block-heading has-light-gray-color has-text-color" id="family" style="font-size:40px"><strong>Mid-Cycle</strong></h2> <p class="has-normal-font-size" style="line-height:1.5"><strong><strong>Scenario Analysis</strong></strong></p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-css-opacity is-style-wide"/> <div class="wp-block-buttons alignfull is-horizontal is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-12 wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100 is-style-fill"><a class="wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-black-background-color has-text-color has-background wp-element-button" href="https://bpi.com/assessing-the-severity-of-mid-cycle-stress-tests/">Read</a></div> </div> </div> <div class="wp-block-column has-yellow-orange-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-14c9dcfcb2d416eb381a52e736447182 is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow" style="color:#000000;padding-top:2em;padding-right:2em;padding-bottom:2em;padding-left:2em"> <h2 class="wp-block-heading has-light-gray-color has-text-color" id="family" style="font-size:40px"><strong>Mid-Cycle</strong></h2> <p class="has-normal-font-size" style="line-height:1.5"><strong><strong>Results Analysis</strong></strong></p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-css-opacity is-style-wide"/> <div class="wp-block-buttons alignfull is-horizontal is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-13 wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100 is-style-fill"><a class="wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-black-background-color has-text-color has-background wp-element-button" href="https://bpi.com/are-restrictions-on-capital-distributions-still-needed-beyond-the-rule-based-capital-framework/">Read</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow"></div> <div class="wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow"></div> </div> <h4 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-left"><strong>Other Content</strong></h4> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/an-overview-of-the-global-market-shock-component-in-the-2020-stress-tests/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">An Overview of the Global Market Shock Component in the 2020 Stress Tests</a> </li> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/supervisory-stress-tests-for-loan-losses-a-five-year-overview-with-reflections-on-the-need-for-greater-transparency/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Supervisory Stress Tests for Loan Losses: A Five-Year Overview With Reflections on the Need for Greater Transparency</a> </li> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/trading-revenue-and-stress-tests/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Trading Revenue and Stress Tests</a> </li> </ul> <div style="height:10px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <h3 class="wp-block-heading has-light-gray-color has-independence-background-color has-text-color has-background" id="year2019dfast">2019</h3> <p>These results assessed the performance of banks under stress, based on the Federal Reserve’s 2019 severely adverse scenario and bank balance sheets as of year-end 2018. The DFAST results also incorporate capital actions based on bank dividends paid in the prior year and with share repurchases assumed to be zero. The results found that stress capital buffers (SCB) reverted to 2016/2017 levels for most banks; the improvement in bank performance was in large part driven by projected gains in available-for-sale (AFS) securities and somewhat lower trading and counterparty losses; and Net revenues and loan losses under stress moved back to 2016/2017 levels. However, there was a significant increase in credit card loan losses, in part driven by changes in the Fed’s own models.</p> <p><strong>The stress scenario assumed:</strong></p> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>A 6.2 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, and one of unprecedented suddenness.</li> <li>A 7.8 percent fall in real GDP.</li> <li>A 3.5 percentage point increase in BBB spreads.</li> <li>A 26 percent decline in house prices.</li> <li>A 35 percent drop in commercial real estate prices.</li> <li>A 50 percent fall in the stock market index.</li> </ul> <div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <div class="wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-column has-yellow-orange-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-14a91cf3dce6ead98dfedcc154b44112 is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow" style="color:#000000;padding-top:2em;padding-right:2em;padding-bottom:2em;padding-left:2em"> <h2 class="wp-block-heading has-light-gray-color has-text-color" id="single" style="font-size:40px"><strong>DFAST 20</strong>19</h2> <p class="has-normal-font-size" style="line-height:1.5"><strong>Scenario Analysis</strong></p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-text-color has-css-opacity has-background is-style-wide" style="background-color:#000000;color:#000000"/> <div class="wp-block-buttons alignfull is-horizontal is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-14 wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100 is-style-fill"><a class="wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-text-color has-background no-border-radius wp-element-button" href="https://bpi.com/federal-reserves-stress-scenario-is-much-more-severe-than-the-2007-2009-financial-crisis/" style="background-color:#000000" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Read</a></div> </div> </div> <div class="wp-block-column has-yellow-orange-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-ecec907ba80a7c8b828835d05c038144 is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow" style="color:#000000;padding-top:2em;padding-right:2em;padding-bottom:2em;padding-left:2em"> <h2 class="wp-block-heading has-light-gray-color has-text-color" id="single" style="font-size:40px"><strong>DFAST 20</strong>19</h2> <p class="has-normal-font-size" style="line-height:1.5"><strong>Results Analysis</strong></p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-text-color has-css-opacity has-background is-style-wide" style="background-color:#000000;color:#000000"/> <div class="wp-block-buttons alignfull is-horizontal is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-15 wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100"><a class="wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-text-color has-background no-border-radius wp-element-button" href="https://bpi.com/bpi-analysis-of-the-dfast-stress-test-results/" style="background-color:#000000" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Read</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <h4 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Other Content:</strong></h4> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/the-global-market-shock-and-bond-market-liquidity/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">The Global Market Shock and Bond Market Liquidity</a> </li> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/reducing-spurious-volatility-in-the-federal-reserves-supervisory-stress-tests/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Reducing Spurious Volatility in the Federal Reserve’s Supervisory Stress Tests</a></li> </ul> <div style="height:10px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <h3 class="wp-block-heading has-light-gray-color has-independence-background-color has-text-color has-background" id="year2018dfast">2018 and Earlier</h3> <p>On June 21, 2018, the Federal Reserve released the results of the 2018 Dodd-Frank Act Stress Tests (DFAST). The key takeaways from this DFAST results are as follows:</p> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Based on DFAST 2018 results, banks’ proposed stress capital buffers would rise 90 basis points in aggregate, from 3.0 percent (using DFAST 2017 results) to 3.9 percent.  For the GSIB group, the aggregate SCB rose 110 basis points, namely from 3.2 percent to 4.3 percent.</li> <li>The increase in capital requirements is likely to dampen loan growth at banks subject to the stress tests and reduce economic growth had the SCB been calculated using this year’s results.</li> <li>As a result of the increase in the SCB under the Fed’s proposal, the total amount of excess capital (the amount by which their capital exceeds the proposed requirements) at banks subject to the stress tests would decline approximately $85 billion, namely from $205 billion to $120 billion.</li> </ul> <div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <div class="wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-column has-yellow-orange-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-6d3f4e040c257142ef259abc06de7442 is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow" style="color:#000000;padding-top:2em;padding-right:2em;padding-bottom:2em;padding-left:2em"> <h2 class="wp-block-heading has-light-gray-color has-text-color" id="single" style="font-size:40px"><strong>DFAST 20</strong>18</h2> <p class="has-normal-font-size" style="line-height:1.5"><strong>Scenario Analysis</strong></p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-text-color has-css-opacity has-background is-style-wide" style="background-color:#000000;color:#000000"/> <div class="wp-block-buttons alignfull is-horizontal is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-16 wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100 is-style-fill"><a class="wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-text-color has-background no-border-radius wp-element-button" href="https://bpi.com/cracks-in-the-feds-stress-tests/" style="background-color:#000000" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Read</a></div> </div> </div> <div class="wp-block-column has-yellow-orange-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-cfa902d4a036fe6765877d9b5507a4ab is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow" style="color:#000000;padding-top:2em;padding-right:2em;padding-bottom:2em;padding-left:2em"> <h2 class="wp-block-heading has-light-gray-color has-text-color" id="single" style="font-size:40px"><strong>DFAST 20</strong>18</h2> <p class="has-normal-font-size" style="line-height:1.5"><strong>Results Analysis</strong></p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-text-color has-css-opacity has-background is-style-wide" style="background-color:#000000;color:#000000"/> <div class="wp-block-buttons alignfull is-horizontal is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-17 wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100"><a class="wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-text-color has-background no-border-radius wp-element-button" href="https://bpi.com/an-assessment-of-dfast-2018-results-through-the-lenses-of-the-scb-and-eslr-proposals/" style="background-color:#000000" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Read</a></div> </div> </div> <div class="wp-block-column has-yellow-orange-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-7237127173133e63903ed6e18ac2ed13 is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow" style="color:#000000;padding-top:2em;padding-right:2em;padding-bottom:2em;padding-left:2em"> <h2 class="wp-block-heading has-light-gray-color has-text-color" id="single" style="font-size:40px"><strong>DFAST 20</strong>16</h2> <p class="has-normal-font-size" style="line-height:1.5"><strong>Results Analysis</strong></p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-text-color has-css-opacity has-background is-style-wide" style="background-color:#000000;color:#000000"/> <div class="wp-block-buttons alignfull is-horizontal is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-18 wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100"><a class="wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-text-color has-background no-border-radius wp-element-button" href="https://bpi.com/tch-publishes-research-note-on-the-2016-federal-reserve-stress-testing-scenarios/" style="background-color:#000000" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Read</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <h4 class="wp-block-heading">Other Content:</h4> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/the-feds-stress-tests-may-have-left-banks-more-exposed-to-rising-interest-rates/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">The Fed’s Stress Tests May Have Left Banks More Exposed to Rising Interest Rates</a></li> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/stress-tests-and-improvements-to-the-ccyb-framework/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Stress Tests and Improvements to the CCyB Framework</a> </li> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/stress-test-dummies-a-fundamental-problem-with-ccar-and-how-to-fix-it/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Stress Test Dummies: A Fundamental Problem With CCAR (and How To Fix It)</a> </li> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/a-transparent-method-for-judging-the-severity-of-macroeconomic-stress-scenarios/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">A Transparent Method for Judging the Severity of Macroeconomic Stress Scenarios</a> </li> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/a-proposal-to-improve-the-transparency-of-stress-scenarios/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">A Proposal to Improve the Transparency of Stress Scenarios</a> </li> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/stress-tests-and-capital-surcharges-are-curtailing-lending-to-small-businesses-in-lmi-communities/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Stress Tests and Capital Surcharges Are Curtailing Lending to Small Businesses in LMI Communities</a></li> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/feds-versus-banks-own-models-in-stress-testing-what-have-we-learned-so-far/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Fed’s Versus Banks’ Own Models in Stress Testing: What Have We Learned So Far?</a></li> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/tch-research-note-compares-united-states-and-european-union-stress-tests/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">TCH Research Note Compares United States and European Union Stress Tests</a> </li> <li><a href="https://bpi.com/comparing-the-results-of-stress-tests-ccar-2016-versus-nyu-stern-v-lab-model/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Comparing the Results of Stress Tests: CCAR 2016 Versus NYU Stern V-Lab Model</a></li> </ul> <h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="latest-news-a07857d8-623b-4751-8256-d5241b786256">You Might Also Be Interested In…</h2> <div class="break-container"> <section class="block-topics-grid container-1240"> <div class="topics-grid-list"> <a class="topic-grid-item" style="background-image: linear-gradient(rgba(0,0,0, 0.4), rgba(0,0,0,0.6)), url('https://bpi.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/bank_capital_stress_testing-v2-286x286-c-default.jpg');" href="https://bpi.com/category/capital-stresstesting/" title="Bank Capital"> <div class="topic-title"> Bank <span class="last-word">Capital <span class="fa fa-chevron-right"></span></span> </div> </a> <a class="topic-grid-item" style="background-image: linear-gradient(rgba(0,0,0, 0.4), rgba(0,0,0,0.6)), url('https://bpi.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Basel-Accord-Finalization-Part-3-cover-286x286-c-default.png');" 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