Mysteel：金三证“伪”，焊管价格几何？-我的钢铁网

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style='color:#3861ab'>焊管</a>市场情况，是近几年来最为“稳重”的第一季度，无论是厂家、还是贸易商，亦或是下游终端，节前补库的想法少了，节后市场的期待也弱了，就连现在已步入的金三月，也被打上“伪旺”的标签，大家依旧繁忙，但却少了生机。那么，市场表现为何如此“反常”，后续市场表现能否反转，接下来笔者将通过以下几个数据给大家简单分析。</p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">焊管产量阶段性回升，库存维持24年末水平</span></strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">从29家国内焊管样本厂家调研的数据来看，今年焊管在3月旺季产量阶段性回升，库存也基本维持在24年末库存水准。截至3月20日，全国焊管周产量33.63万吨，周环比上涨5.63%，年同比下降8%。厂内总库存67.11万吨，周环比下降5.29，年同比下降17.73%。由此我们也不难看出焊管厂家开年投产的谨慎与风控意识，有利润的时候循序提产，维持库存合理水平，就算利润下降也有一定缓冲空间。</p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><img src="https://img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/03/23/2055581.png" width="394" height="248" /></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><img src="https://img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/03/23/2055582.png" width="438" height="243" /></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">焊管社会库存中低位趋稳</span></strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">从全国61个国内主流钢材钢材仓库调研的样本来看，25年开年以来全样本焊管社会库存维持在137.06-138.07万吨之间，变化幅度仅为0.74%，连1%都不到。而24年全样本焊管社会库存在156.95-164.26万吨，变化幅度为4.66%。由此可见，今年焊管贸易商心态普遍谨慎，库存维持中位偏低水平，出多少，补多少。</p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><img src="https://img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/03/23/2055583.png" width="441" height="242" /></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">“旺季不旺”特征愈突出</span></strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">从焊管全样本调研的成交来看，25年3月整体成交仍不及往年，表现成交水平下移且单日成交变化幅度收缩，旺季不旺的特征越来越突出。<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>对今年建筑页复工情况调研结果也显示，今年的复工进度较为缓慢，资金下沉的速度也较慢。</p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><img src="https://img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/03/23/2055584.png" width="598" height="333" /></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">笔者认为，3月的反常表现，其主要原因有以下几点：一是今年整体开工、复工、资金到位率的进度相对较缓，一系列建筑投资领域形成的实物工作量，尤其在三月表现不及预期。二是“利空”宏观背景下间接扰动钢材市场，不确定因素增加。从美国的加征25%关税，到供给侧改革2.0背景下粗钢限产消息的释放等，这些都间接制约钢材的投资与需求。三是国家宏观调控主要还是在于稳住市场，而非刺激市场，尤其是财政支持方面先存量后增量，目测市场需求大概率仍是个拖底下滑的局面。</p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"> </p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">综合来看，25年二季度焊管价格或是在供需弱平衡下震荡下行，但下行空间有限。按往年常态市场二季度基本高开低走，但今年3月的反常表现，焊管价格并没有同样幅度的走高，目前的价格水平仍在24年价格水平的中位偏下水平。加之市场避险情绪的提升，无论是厂库还是社库均维持中低水平，虽然需求表现仍旧不佳，但是基本面供给大于需求所带来的价格承压可以避免，而真正影响价格中枢还是原材料成本端的价格。</p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"> </p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"> </p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：袁辉杨 021-26094015 </br> 资讯监督：陈文花 021-26093859 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