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<div class="mw-indicators"> </div> <div id="siteSub" class="noprint">From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia</div> </div> <div id="contentSub"><div id="mw-content-subtitle"></div></div> <div id="mw-content-text" class="mw-body-content"><div class="mw-content-ltr mw-parser-output" lang="en" dir="ltr"><div class="shortdescription nomobile noexcerpt noprint searchaux" style="display:none">Theory regarding international relations and war</div> <p> <b>Power transition theory</b> is a theory about the nature of <a href="/wiki/War" title="War">war</a>, in relation to the <a href="/wiki/Power_in_international_relations" class="mw-redirect" title="Power in international relations">power in international relations</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-Organski_1-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Organski-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Wittkopf_2-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Wittkopf-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Tammen_3-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Tammen-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The theory was first published in 1958 by its creator, <a href="/wiki/A.F.K._Organski" class="mw-redirect" title="A.F.K. Organski">A.F.K. Organski</a>, in his textbook, <i>World Politics</i> (1958). </p><p>According to Organski: </p> <blockquote><p>An even distribution of political, economic, and military capabilities between contending groups of states is likely to increase the probability of war; peace is preserved best when there is an imbalance of national capabilities between disadvantaged and advantaged nations; the aggressor will come from a small group of dissatisfied strong countries; and it is the weaker, rather than the stronger power that is most likely to be the aggressor.</p></blockquote> <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Theory">Theory</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Power_transition_theory&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Theory"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div><p> Organski first described power transition theory.<sup id="cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:Ma&Kang-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page: 22">: 22 </span></sup> According to Organski in his textbook, <i>World Politics</i> (1958):</p><blockquote><p>An even distribution of political, economic, and military capabilities between contending groups of states is likely to increase the probability of war; peace is preserved best when there is an imbalance of national capabilities between disadvantaged and advantaged nations; the aggressor will come from a small group of dissatisfied strong countries; and it is the weaker, rather than the stronger power that is most likely to be the aggressor.<sup id="cite_ref-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></p></blockquote><p>Steve Chan summarizes the theory as "the danger of systemic war is greatest when a rising challenger catches up with or even overtakes a declining hegemon."<sup id="cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:Ma&Kang-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page: 23">: 23 </span></sup> The underlying logic is that a rising power that is satisfied with the order of the international system has little incentive to challenge the status quo, while a dissatisfied rising power may wish to challenge the status quo.<sup id="cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:Ma&Kang-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Pages: 23–24">: 23–24 </span></sup> </p><p>Power transition theory interprets the international system as a hierarchical pyramid with the dominant power at the apex, then lesser <a href="/wiki/Great_power" title="Great power">great powers</a>, then other medium and small states and dependences.<sup id="cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:Ma&Kang-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page: 22">: 22 </span></sup> </p><p>While Organski's hierarchy initially referred only to the entire international system, Douglas Lemke later expanded the hierarchy model to include regional hierarchies, arguing that each region contains its own dominant, great, and small powers. Thus regional hierarchies exist embedded into the larger international hierarchy.<sup id="cite_ref-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Power transition theory, a precursor of the<a href="/wiki/Long_Cycle_Theory" class="mw-redirect" title="Long Cycle Theory"> long-cycle theory</a> of <a href="/wiki/Hegemony" title="Hegemony">hegemony</a>, seeks to explain trends between warring states in the past 500 years. It detects a general trend: a nation achieves <a href="/wiki/Hegemony" title="Hegemony"> hegemonic power</a> and then is challenged by a <a href="/wiki/Great_power" title="Great power">great power</a>. This leads to a war which, in the past, has resulted a transition between two powers. Eugene R. Wittkopf explores past wars and their relation to power transition theory in his 1997 book <i>World Politics: Trend and Transformation</i>. He explains the interactions using <a href="/wiki/George_Modelski" title="George Modelski">George Modelski</a>'s Seapower Concentration Index.<sup id="cite_ref-Wittkopf_2-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Wittkopf-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Historical_application">Historical application</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Power_transition_theory&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Historical application"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Storck,_Four_Days_Battle.jpg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fd/Storck%2C_Four_Days_Battle.jpg/350px-Storck%2C_Four_Days_Battle.jpg" decoding="async" width="350" height="249" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fd/Storck%2C_Four_Days_Battle.jpg/525px-Storck%2C_Four_Days_Battle.jpg 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fd/Storck%2C_Four_Days_Battle.jpg/700px-Storck%2C_Four_Days_Battle.jpg 2x" data-file-width="1280" data-file-height="910" /></a><figcaption><i>The Royal Prince and other vessels at the Four Days Fight, 11–14 June 1666</i> by <i>Abraham Storck</i> depicts a battle of the <a href="/wiki/Second_Anglo-Dutch_War" title="Second Anglo-Dutch War">Second Anglo-Dutch War</a>. This period marked the beginning of a significant threat to Dutch hegemony in Europe</figcaption></figure><p>Power transition theory often cites the <a href="/wiki/Peloponnesian_War" title="Peloponnesian War">Peloponnesian War</a> between <a href="/wiki/Athens" title="Athens">Athens</a> and <a href="/wiki/Sparta" title="Sparta">Sparta</a> and <a href="/wiki/Thucydides" title="Thucydides">Thucydides'</a> assertions that war was inevitable because of "the growth of the power of Athens, and the alarm which this inspired in Sparta" and "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must."<sup id="cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:Ma&Kang-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page: 21">: 21 </span></sup> </p><p>Power transition theory uses European historical cases as its theoretical basis and for deriving its causal propositions.<sup id="cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:Ma&Kang-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page: 31">: 31 </span></sup> </p><p>In 1518, <a href="/wiki/Portugal" title="Portugal">Portugal</a> assumed a hegemonic position in world politics.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="''pace'' Hapsburg Spain and Ottoman Turkey. (August 2023)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> However, as the <a href="/wiki/Netherlands" title="Netherlands">Netherlands</a> rose in power during the <a href="/wiki/Dutch_Golden_Age" title="Dutch Golden Age">Dutch Golden Age</a> of 1588 to 1672, a series of struggles led to the destruction of Portugal's power and a transition to Dutch hegemony. Dutch hegemony came into question from 1688 with the wars of <a href="/wiki/Louis_XIV_of_France" class="mw-redirect" title="Louis XIV of France">Louis XIV of France</a>, which resulted in what political scientists refer to as the "Britain I Cycle"; the <a href="/wiki/Napoleonic_Wars" title="Napoleonic Wars">Napoleonic Wars</a> interrupted this cycle and questioned the hegemony Britain possessed. However, ultimately, Allies' <a href="/wiki/War_of_the_Seventh_Coalition" class="mw-redirect" title="War of the Seventh Coalition"> victory in 1815</a> resulted in the maintenance of British power and the "Britain II Cycle".<sup id="cite_ref-Wittkopf_2-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Wittkopf-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This cycle ended with the <a href="/wiki/World_War" class="mw-redirect" title="World War">World Wars</a> of the first half of the 20th century. Wittkopf portrays the period of 1914–1945 as one of particular turbulence in which no power maintained hegemony, even after the 1919 <a href="/wiki/Treaty_of_Versailles" title="Treaty of Versailles">Treaty of Versailles</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-Wittkopf_2-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Wittkopf-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> After the <a href="/wiki/Second_World_War" class="mw-redirect" title="Second World War">Second World War</a> (1939–1945) the <a href="/wiki/United_States" title="United States">United States</a> invested in a drastic increase in seapower concentration – and the U.S. and the <a href="/wiki/Soviet_Union" title="Soviet Union">Soviet Union</a> became the world's first <a href="/wiki/Superpower" title="Superpower">superpowers</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-Wittkopf_2-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Wittkopf-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>A review by academics Xinru Ma and David C. Kang of articles first-tier journals found that the case most analyzed under power transition theory was the <a href="/wiki/Germany%E2%80%93United_Kingdom_relations" title="Germany–United Kingdom relations">Anglo-German</a> rivalry of the 20th century.<sup id="cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:Ma&Kang-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page: 25">: 25 </span></sup> No articles within their review discussed an East Asian case from earlier than the late 19th century.<sup id="cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:Ma&Kang-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Pages: 27–28">: 27–28 </span></sup> </p><p>In general, hegemonic periods last approximately 60 to 90 years and conflicts which result in a period stabilization of power-distribution last approximately 20 years.<sup id="cite_ref-Wittkopf_2-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Wittkopf-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This can be explained through <a href="/wiki/War-weariness" title="War-weariness">war-weariness</a> and the tendency (although this was broken in the first half of the 20th century) for nations not to engage themselves in another conflict after being involved in a power transition.<sup id="cite_ref-Wittkopf_2-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Wittkopf-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Power transitions play an important role in applications of the <a href="/wiki/Bargaining_model_of_war" title="Bargaining model of war">bargaining model of war</a> where wars are more likely to break out and be severe in situations of uncertainty and of commitment problems. During power transitions, it is harder for actors to credibly commit to abide by any agreement, thus creating major commitment problems.<sup id="cite_ref-:1_7-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:1-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:3_8-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:3-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>International relations scholars <a href="/wiki/Randall_Schweller" title="Randall Schweller">Randall Schweller</a> and Xiaoyu Pu find that the challenger not only seeks to increase its material power but also to promote its own ideological and normative frameworks as alternatives to those propagated by the hegemon.<sup id="cite_ref-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <p><a href="/wiki/Michael_Beckley_(political_scientist)" title="Michael Beckley (political scientist)">Michael Beckley</a>, writing in 2023, states that conflict between <a href="/wiki/Great_power" title="Great power">great powers</a> can happen even when a power transition does not appear to be likely. He argues that rising powers have historically </p><blockquote><p>"lashed out when they realized that they would not catch their rivals or achieve their grand ambitions—unless they took drastic action. These peaking power dynamics help explain some of the most consequential geopolitical events of the past 150 years, including the surge of <a href="/wiki/U.S._imperialism" class="mw-redirect" title="U.S. imperialism">U.S. imperialism</a> in the late nineteenth century, the outbreak of World War II, and Russia's 2014 <a href="/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation" title="Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation"> annexation of Crimea</a> and <a href="/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War" title="Russo-Ukrainian War"> intervention in eastern Ukraine</a>."<sup id="cite_ref-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p></blockquote><p>Publishing in 2024, Academics Xinru Ma and David C. Kang write that nearly all of the cases analyzed under power transition theory are post-1820s European cases.<sup id="cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:Ma&Kang-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page: 6">: 6 </span></sup> They write that this approach creates a Eurocentric "blind spot" and overemphasizes the importance and generalizability of the European and Western historical experience.<sup id="cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:Ma&Kang-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page: 6">: 6 </span></sup> They contend that this "has led to an overexpectation that power transitions are a principal cause for war and that the theory is universally applicable across time and space."<sup id="cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:Ma&Kang-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page: 9">: 9 </span></sup> </p><p>Academics <a href="/wiki/Richard_Ned_Lebow" title="Richard Ned Lebow">Richard Ned Lebow</a> and <a href="/wiki/Benjamin_Valentino" title="Benjamin Valentino">Benjamin Valentino</a> write, "Power transition theorists have been surprisingly reluctant to engage historical cases in an effort to show that wars between great powers have actually resulted from the motives described by their theories."<sup id="cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-11" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:Ma&Kang-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page: 31">: 31 </span></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Power_transition_theory&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: See also"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Thucydides_trap" class="mw-redirect" title="Thucydides trap">Thucydides trap</a></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Power_transition_theory&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style><div class="reflist"> <div class="mw-references-wrap"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-Organski-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-Organski_1-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription.id-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg")right 0.1em center/12px no-repeat}body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-free a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background-size:contain;padding:0 1em 0 0}.mw-parser-output .cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#085;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-selflink{font-weight:inherit}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}</style><cite id="CITEREFOrganski1958" class="citation book cs1"><a href="/wiki/A.F.K._Organski" class="mw-redirect" title="A.F.K. Organski">Organski, AFK</a> (1958). <i>World Politics</i>. <a href="/wiki/New_York_City" title="New York City">New York</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=World+Politics&rft.place=New+York&rft.date=1958&rft.aulast=Organski&rft.aufirst=AFK&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APower+transition+theory" class="Z3988"></span><span class="cs1-maint citation-comment"><code class="cs1-code">{{<a href="/wiki/Template:Cite_book" title="Template:Cite book">cite book</a>}}</code>: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (<a href="/wiki/Category:CS1_maint:_location_missing_publisher" title="Category:CS1 maint: location missing publisher">link</a>)</span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-Wittkopf-2"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-Wittkopf_2-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-Wittkopf_2-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-Wittkopf_2-2"><sup><i><b>c</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-Wittkopf_2-3"><sup><i><b>d</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-Wittkopf_2-4"><sup><i><b>e</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-Wittkopf_2-5"><sup><i><b>f</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-Wittkopf_2-6"><sup><i><b>g</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFWittkopf1997" class="citation book cs1">Wittkopf, Eugene R. (1997). <i>World Politics: Trend and Transformation</i>. <a href="/wiki/New_York_City" title="New York City">New York</a>: St. Martin's Press.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=World+Politics%3A+Trend+and+Transformation&rft.place=New+York&rft.pub=St.+Martin%27s+Press&rft.date=1997&rft.aulast=Wittkopf&rft.aufirst=Eugene+R.&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APower+transition+theory" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-Tammen-3"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-Tammen_3-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTammen2000" class="citation book cs1">Tammen, Ronald L. (2000). <i>Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century</i>. Seven Bridges Press.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Power+Transitions%3A+Strategies+for+the+21st+Century&rft.pub=Seven+Bridges+Press&rft.date=2000&rft.aulast=Tammen&rft.aufirst=Ronald+L.&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APower+transition+theory" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-:Ma&Kang-4"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-2"><sup><i><b>c</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-3"><sup><i><b>d</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-4"><sup><i><b>e</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-5"><sup><i><b>f</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-6"><sup><i><b>g</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-7"><sup><i><b>h</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-8"><sup><i><b>i</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-9"><sup><i><b>j</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-10"><sup><i><b>k</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:Ma&Kang_4-11"><sup><i><b>l</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFMaKang2024" class="citation book cs1">Ma, Xinru; Kang, David C. (2024). <i>Beyond Power Transitions: The Lessons of East Asian History and the Future of U.S.-China Relations</i>. Columbia Studies in International Order and Politics. New York: <a href="/wiki/Columbia_University_Press" title="Columbia University Press">Columbia University Press</a>. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0-231-55597-5" title="Special:BookSources/978-0-231-55597-5"><bdi>978-0-231-55597-5</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Beyond+Power+Transitions%3A+The+Lessons+of+East+Asian+History+and+the+Future+of+U.S.-China+Relations&rft.place=New+York&rft.series=Columbia+Studies+in+International+Order+and+Politics&rft.pub=Columbia+University+Press&rft.date=2024&rft.isbn=978-0-231-55597-5&rft.aulast=Ma&rft.aufirst=Xinru&rft.au=Kang%2C+David+C.&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APower+transition+theory" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-5"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-5">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Organski 1980, 19</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-6"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-6">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Mold, Andrew. (2003). Regions of war and peace edited by Douglas Lemke (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002, pp. 235). Journal of International Development. 15. 805–806. <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1002%2Fjid.1014">10.1002/jid.1014</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-:1-7"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-:1_7-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFPowell2006" class="citation journal cs1">Powell, Robert (2006). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0020818306060061">"War as a Commitment Problem"</a>. <i>International Organization</i>. <b>60</b> (1). <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1017%2Fs0020818306060061">10.1017/s0020818306060061</a>. <a href="/wiki/ISSN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISSN (identifier)">ISSN</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://search.worldcat.org/issn/0020-8183">0020-8183</a>. <a href="/wiki/S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID (identifier)">S2CID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:15861342">15861342</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=International+Organization&rft.atitle=War+as+a+Commitment+Problem&rft.volume=60&rft.issue=1&rft.date=2006&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A15861342%23id-name%3DS2CID&rft.issn=0020-8183&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1017%2Fs0020818306060061&rft.aulast=Powell&rft.aufirst=Robert&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.1017%2Fs0020818306060061&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APower+transition+theory" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-:3-8"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-:3_8-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFWeisiger2013" class="citation book cs1">Weisiger, Alex (2013). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7591/j.ctt1xx5pk"><i>Logics of War: Explanations for Limited and Unlimited Conflicts</i></a>. Cornell University Press. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/9780801451867" title="Special:BookSources/9780801451867"><bdi>9780801451867</bdi></a>. <a href="/wiki/JSTOR_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="JSTOR (identifier)">JSTOR</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7591/j.ctt1xx5pk">10.7591/j.ctt1xx5pk</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Logics+of+War%3A+Explanations+for+Limited+and+Unlimited+Conflicts&rft.pub=Cornell+University+Press&rft.date=2013&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jstor.org%2Fstable%2F10.7591%2Fj.ctt1xx5pk%23id-name%3DJSTOR&rft.isbn=9780801451867&rft.aulast=Weisiger&rft.aufirst=Alex&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jstor.org%2Fstable%2F10.7591%2Fj.ctt1xx5pk&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APower+transition+theory" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-9"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-9">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Schweller, R. L., & Pu, X. (2011). After unipolarity: China's visions of international order in an era of US decline. <i>International security</i>, <i>36</i>(1), 41-72.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-10"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-10">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFBeckley2023" class="citation journal cs1">Beckley, Michael (2023). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00463">"The Peril of Peaking Powers: Economic Slowdowns and Implications for China's Next Decade"</a>. <i>International Security</i>. <b>48</b>: 7–46. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<span class="id-lock-free" title="Freely accessible"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1162%2Fisec_a_00463">10.1162/isec_a_00463</a></span>. <a href="/wiki/S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID (identifier)">S2CID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:260736779">260736779</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=International+Security&rft.atitle=The+Peril+of+Peaking+Powers%3A+Economic+Slowdowns+and+Implications+for+China%27s+Next+Decade&rft.volume=48&rft.pages=7-46&rft.date=2023&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1162%2Fisec_a_00463&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A260736779%23id-name%3DS2CID&rft.aulast=Beckley&rft.aufirst=Michael&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1162%2Fisec_a_00463&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APower+transition+theory" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> </ol></div></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="External_links">External links</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Power_transition_theory&action=edit&section=5" title="Edit section: External links"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://demonstrations.wolfram.com/HegemonicZonesOfInfluence/">Hegemonic Zones of Influence</a> by Michael Schreiber, <a href="/wiki/The_Wolfram_Demonstrations_Project" class="mw-redirect" title="The Wolfram Demonstrations Project">The Wolfram Demonstrations Project</a>.</li></ul> <div class="navbox-styles"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1129693374">.mw-parser-output .hlist dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul{margin:0;padding:0}.mw-parser-output .hlist dd,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt,.mw-parser-output .hlist li{margin:0;display:inline}.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist 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a>span,.mw-parser-output .navbar a>abbr{text-decoration:inherit}.mw-parser-output .navbar-mini abbr{font-variant:small-caps;border-bottom:none;text-decoration:none;cursor:inherit}.mw-parser-output .navbar-ct-full{font-size:114%;margin:0 7em}.mw-parser-output .navbar-ct-mini{font-size:114%;margin:0 4em}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .navbar li a abbr{color:var(--color-base)!important}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .navbar li a abbr{color:var(--color-base)!important}}@media print{.mw-parser-output .navbar{display:none!important}}</style><div class="navbar plainlinks hlist navbar-mini"><ul><li class="nv-view"><a href="/wiki/Template:International_power" title="Template:International power"><abbr title="View this template">v</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-talk"><a href="/wiki/Template_talk:International_power" title="Template talk:International power"><abbr title="Discuss this template">t</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-edit"><a href="/wiki/Special:EditPage/Template:International_power" title="Special:EditPage/Template:International power"><abbr title="Edit this template">e</abbr></a></li></ul></div><div id="Power_in_international_relations" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Power_(international_relations)" title="Power (international relations)">Power in international relations</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em"><a href="/wiki/Power_(social_and_political)" title="Power (social and political)">Types</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change" title="United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change">Climate</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_power" title="Economic power">Economic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Energy_superpower" title="Energy superpower">Energy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Food_power" title="Food power">Food</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hard_power" title="Hard power">Hard</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Maritime_power" title="Maritime power">Maritime</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/National_power" title="National power">National</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Power_politics" title="Power politics">Politics</a></li> <li><i><a href="/wiki/Realpolitik" title="Realpolitik">Realpolitik</a></i></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sharp_power" title="Sharp power">Sharp</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Smart_power" title="Smart power">Smart</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Soft_power" title="Soft power">Soft</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Status</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Small_power" title="Small power">Small</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Middle_power" title="Middle power">Middle</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Regional_power" title="Regional power">Regional</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Emerging_power" title="Emerging power">Emerging</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Least_of_the_Great_Powers" class="mw-redirect" title="Least of the Great Powers">Least Great</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Great_power" title="Great power">Great</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Potential_superpower" title="Potential superpower">Potential</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Superpower" title="Superpower">Super</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em"><a href="/wiki/Geopolitics" title="Geopolitics">Geopolitics</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/American_Century" title="American Century">American</a> (<a href="/wiki/Pax_Americana" title="Pax Americana">Pax</a>)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Asian_Century" title="Asian Century">Asian</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Chinese_Century" title="Chinese Century">Chinese</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Indian_Century" title="Indian Century">Indian</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Pacific_Century" title="Pacific Century">Pacific</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">History</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/List_of_ancient_great_powers" title="List of ancient great powers">List of ancient great powers</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_medieval_great_powers" title="List of medieval great powers">List of medieval great powers</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_modern_great_powers" title="List of modern great powers">List of modern great powers</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/International_relations_(1814%E2%80%931919)" title="International relations (1814–1919)">International relations (1814–1919)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Post-Western_era" title="Post-Western era">Post-Western era</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Theory</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/American_decline" title="American decline">American decline</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Balance_of_power_(international_relations)" title="Balance of power (international relations)">Balance of power</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/European_balance_of_power" title="European balance of power">European</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Deterrence_theory" title="Deterrence theory">Deterrence theory</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hegemonic_stability_theory" title="Hegemonic stability theory">Hegemonic stability theory</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Multilateralism" title="Multilateralism">Multilateralism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Internationalism_(politics)" title="Internationalism (politics)">Internationalism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Power_(social_and_political)" title="Power (social and political)">Philosophy of power</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Polarity_(international_relations)" title="Polarity (international relations)">Polarity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Power_projection" title="Power projection">Power projection</a></li> <li><a class="mw-selflink selflink">Power transition theory</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Second_Superpower" class="mw-redirect" title="Second Superpower">Second Superpower</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sphere_of_influence" title="Sphere of influence">Sphere of influence</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Superpower_collapse" class="mw-redirect" title="Superpower collapse">Superpower collapse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Superpower_disengagement" class="mw-redirect" title="Superpower disengagement">Superpower disengagement</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Studies</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Composite_Index_of_National_Capability" title="Composite Index of National Capability">Composite Index of National Capability</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Comprehensive_National_Power" title="Comprehensive National Power">Comprehensive National Power</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Organizations_and_groups_by_region" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Regional_organization" title="Regional organization">Organizations and groups</a> by region</div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Africa</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/African_Union" title="African Union">African Union</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Union_for_the_Mediterranean" title="Union for the Mediterranean">Union for the Mediterranean</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Africa–Asia</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Arab_League" title="Arab League">Arab League</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Gulf_Cooperation_Council" title="Gulf Cooperation Council">Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Organisation_of_Islamic_Cooperation" title="Organisation of Islamic Cooperation">Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC)</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Americas</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Association_of_Caribbean_States" title="Association of Caribbean States">Association of Caribbean States (ACS)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Caribbean_Community" title="Caribbean Community">Caribbean Community (CARICOM)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Central_American_Integration_System" title="Central American Integration System">Central American Integration System (SICA)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Community_of_Latin_American_and_Caribbean_States" title="Community of Latin American and Caribbean States">Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mercosur" title="Mercosur">Mercosur</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/NATO" title="NATO">North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Organization_of_American_States" title="Organization of American States">Organization of American States (OAS)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Union_of_South_American_Nations" title="Union of South American Nations">Union of South American Nations (UNASUR)</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Asia</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Asia_Cooperation_Dialogue" title="Asia Cooperation Dialogue">Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Asia-Pacific_Economic_Cooperation" title="Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation">Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/ASEAN" title="ASEAN">Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Bay_of_Bengal_Initiative_for_Multi-Sectoral_Technical_and_Economic_Cooperation" title="Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation">Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Conference_on_Interaction_and_Confidence-Building_Measures_in_Asia" title="Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia">Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_Cooperation_Organization" title="Economic Cooperation Organization">Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/South_Asian_Association_for_Regional_Cooperation" title="South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation">South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation" title="Shanghai Cooperation Organisation">Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Trilateral_Cooperation_Secretariat" title="Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat">Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat (TCS)</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Europe</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Organization_of_the_Black_Sea_Economic_Cooperation" title="Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation">Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Council_of_Europe" title="Council of Europe">Council of Europe (CoE)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/European_Political_Community" title="European Political Community">European Political Community (EPC)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/European_Union" title="European Union">European Union (EU)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nordic_Council" title="Nordic Council">Nordic Council</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Visegr%C3%A1d_Group" title="Visegrád Group">Visegrád Group (V4)</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Eurasia</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Independent_States" title="Commonwealth of Independent States">Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Collective_Security_Treaty_Organization" title="Collective Security Treaty Organization">Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_Cooperation_Organization" title="Economic Cooperation Organization">Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Union" title="Eurasian Economic Union">Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Organization_of_Turkic_States" title="Organization of Turkic States">Organization of Turkic States</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">North America–Europe</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Arctic_Council" title="Arctic Council">Arctic Council</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/NATO" title="NATO">North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Africa–Asia–Europe</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Union_for_the_Mediterranean" title="Union for the Mediterranean">Union for the Mediterranean</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Africa–South America</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/South_Atlantic_Peace_and_Cooperation_Zone" title="South Atlantic Peace and Cooperation Zone">South Atlantic Peace and Cooperation Zone</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Oceania–Pacific</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Asia-Pacific_Economic_Cooperation" title="Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation">Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/ANZUS" title="ANZUS">Australia–New Zealand–United States Security Treaty (ANZUS)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Melanesian_Spearhead_Group" title="Melanesian Spearhead Group">Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Pacific_Islands_Forum" title="Pacific Islands Forum">Pacific Islands Forum (PIF)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Polynesian_Leaders_Group" title="Polynesian Leaders Group">Polynesian Leaders Group (PLG)</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em;padding:0.35em 1.0em;line-height:1.25em;">Non–regional</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/BRICS" title="BRICS">Brazil–Russia–India–China–South Africa (BRICS)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Nations" title="Commonwealth of Nations">Commonwealth of Nations</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Community_of_Portuguese_Speaking_Countries" class="mw-redirect" title="Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries">Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/E9_(countries)" title="E9 (countries)">E9</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/G4_nations" title="G4 nations">G4</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/G7" title="G7">G7</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Group_of_Eight" class="mw-redirect" title="Group of Eight">G8</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/G8%2B5" title="G8+5">G8+5</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/G20" title="G20">G20</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Group_of_24" title="Group of 24">G24</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Group_of_77" title="Group of 77">G77</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/IBSA_Dialogue_Forum" title="IBSA Dialogue Forum">India–Brazil–South Africa Dialogue Forum (IBSA)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Non-Aligned_Movement" title="Non-Aligned Movement">Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/OECD" title="OECD">Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Organisation_internationale_de_la_Francophonie" title="Organisation internationale de la Francophonie">Organisation internationale de la Francophonie (OIF)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Uniting_for_Consensus" title="Uniting for Consensus">Uniting for Consensus</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Global</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/United_Nations" title="United Nations">United Nations (UN)</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table></div>    </div><noscript><img src="https://login.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:CentralAutoLogin/start?type=1x1" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border: none; position: absolute;"></noscript> <div class="printfooter" data-nosnippet="">Retrieved from "<a dir="ltr" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Power_transition_theory&oldid=1259854906">https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Power_transition_theory&oldid=1259854906</a>"</div></div> <div id="catlinks" class="catlinks" data-mw="interface"><div id="mw-normal-catlinks" class="mw-normal-catlinks"><a href="/wiki/Help:Category" title="Help:Category">Categories</a>: <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Category:1958_introductions" title="Category:1958 introductions">1958 introductions</a></li><li><a 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