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Mysteel周报：机械原材料价格监测（4.8-4.12）-我的钢铁网
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<p><strong>核心观点：</strong>12日国内钢材指数（Myspic）综合指数报收138.79点，周环比上涨2.08%。供应方面，本周五大钢材品种供应856.2万吨，周环比降9.01万吨，降幅为1%。本期钢材产量有所减少，因高炉轧线检修导致产量下降；本周五大钢材总库存2133.17万吨，周环比降108.02万吨，降幅为4.8%。库存方面，本周五大品种总库存继续下降，且结构上表现一致：厂库与社库均开始去库，降幅分别为7.3%和3.8%。消费方面，本周五大品种周消费量为964.22万吨，降幅为0.99%；其中建材消费环比增2.9%，板材消费环比降2.1%。本周五大品种中建材与板材消费出现一定的分化，建材消费增，板材消费降，这主要由于热卷供应持续保持高位，但需求偏弱，去库速率偏缓。<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>市方面：宏观方面，上海期货交易所发布《关于在黄金和铜期货品种实施交易限额的通知》，对黄金、铜期货品种实施交易限额。非期货公司会员、客户在黄金期货品种日内开仓交易最大数量为2800手，铜期货品种日内开仓交易最大数量为2000手。美国3月CPI数据再超预期，至此进入今年以来通胀已经连续三个月超预期;数据显示，美国3月CPI同比增3.5%，预期3.4%，前值3.2%;环比增0.4%，预期0.3%，持平前值。美国3月核心CPI同比增3.8%，预期3.7%持平前值;核心CPI环比增0.4%，预期0.3%，持平前值，1月份也为0.4%。华尔街分析师普遍认为，美联储6月降息几无可能，甚至需要开始考虑加息的可能性。基本面方面，上周下游订单表现不理想，在高<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜价</a>下部分订单开始出现执行乏力的情况，尤其是部分高价订单向下传导难度较大，导致订单开始出现阶段的减弱，这一情况还需要一定的时间传导，个别地区的边际需求开始出现明显的下滑。<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝</a>市方面：上周<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝价</a>强势上涨，市场铝锭成交由强转弱。周初铝价大幅冲高上破两万关口，现货市场表现维持稳定，假期累库叠加高铝价对交投有所抑制，但临近交割持货商挺价，升贴水趋稳，报价在均价附近，需求有所承压，接货方面对高价按需采购为主，相对低价有部分补入。周中铝价小幅回调震荡反弹，市场交投转淡。高铝价以及基差走强的预期下，市场持货商初始挺价惜售，报价在20元/吨附近，后转为积极出货下调报价至均价附近，流通货源由紧转松。</p> <p><strong>一、原材料品种价格监测</strong></p> <p>截止2024年4月12日，各原材料当日即时价格以及价格周环比情况如下：</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 251.098px;" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/04/15/505de0d7f7c544e8a1738c93f35328e4.png" width="600" height="251" /></p> <p><strong>二、机械行业原材料基本面分析——钢材篇</strong></p> <p><strong>主要内容摘要①——</strong><strong><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010102-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>中厚板</a>：上周中板价格震荡上涨,预计本周价格将震荡上涨</strong></p> <p>上周全国中厚板市场价格震荡上涨，整体成交情况表现一般。全国中板库存总量为292.54吨，较上周下降6.74万吨，其中华北区域减量最多。上周开工率84.62%，周环比持平；钢厂周实际产量155.94万吨，周环比增加0.77万吨；钢厂产能利用率95.9%，周环比上升0.48%；钢厂库存76.25万吨，周环比增加1.5万吨。从供应端来看，中板品种利润尚可，钢厂维持正常生产，产量高位盘整运行。从需求端来看，黑色系期货反弹带动市场情绪好转，贸易商补库意愿增强，市场投机需求活跃，终端下游按需拿货，市场整体成交尚可。总体来看，原料价格止跌反弹，市场情绪有所缓解，但终端需求释放有限，需继续关注反弹节奏，预计本周国内中厚板行情或将稳中趋强运行。</p> <p><strong>主要内容摘要②——</strong><strong>热卷：<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>热轧</a>板卷价格反弹 市场成交回暖</strong></p> <p>本周国内热轧板卷价格上行。全国24个主要市场3.0mm热轧板卷价格均价为3857元/吨，较上周上涨62元/吨；4.75mm热轧板卷均价为3791元/吨，较上周上涨62元/吨。从各区域的库存数据看，降幅最大的区域是华北，较上周降4.46万吨，增幅最大的区域是西北，较上周增加0.21万吨。本周市场库存小幅降库，需求在市场氛围带动下有所回暖，在市场供给持续高位的情况下，降库幅度较小。目前市场处于反弹通道中，原料价格持续上行的情况下，市场抄底情况有所增加，下游需求有回暖预期，短期内价格或将震荡强势运行。</p> <p><strong>主要内容摘要③</strong><strong>——</strong><strong><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010107-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>型钢</a>：上周价格稳中趋强运行，预计本周全国型钢市场价格将呈现震荡攀升的走势</strong></p> <p><strong>上周价格稳中趋强运行，</strong>200*200<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010705-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>H型钢</a>全国均价3665元/吨，周环比上涨23元/吨；588*300H型钢3799元/吨，周环比上涨18元/吨；5＃角钢3929元/吨，周环比上涨18元/吨；16＃槽钢为3940元/吨，周环比上涨21元/吨，25＃工字钢为3962元/吨，周环比上涨23元/吨。</p> <p><strong>供应方面，</strong>上周全国工角槽产量45.36万吨，周环比增加4.13万吨；在H型钢生产企业中，钢厂周实际产量30.39万吨，周环比增长8.46%。上周钢厂库存不在累库增长，但库存总量仍处高位，调坯轧钢厂生产意愿降低，后期将仍是以降低库存总量为主，库存方面或将小幅降低。</p> <p><strong>需求方面，</strong>近期市场终端需求单量陆续抛出，消耗能力有所提升，与目前钢厂控制产量的供给基本持平，但仍然无法迎合市场降库需求，基础设施建设强度有所恢复，带动下游需求启动，短期内对市场目前供大于求的局面很难达到平衡状态。</p> <p><strong>综合来看，</strong>目前市场经过一周的反弹，或将延续震荡攀升走势，现货市场成交有所好转，钢厂在降低生产的情况下已能与市场终端需求呈现局部持平状态，库存总量相比较上周无明显增长，但供大于求的局面尚未得到明显改观，对价格无法形成良好的止跌效果。同时下游贸易商多采取降库低价出货形式，尽量回笼资金，对后期市场信心仍持有观望态势。市场需求有所增长的带动下，成交好转，市场价格也在不断修复，虽对整体局面无法实现突破性的翻转，但依然带动了市场情绪，而提振后的市场，也逐渐恢复了一定的信心。综合来看，预计本周全国型钢市场价格将呈现震荡攀升的走势。</p> <p><strong>三、机械行业原材料基本面分析——有色篇</strong></p> <p><strong>主要内容摘要④——铜：</strong></p> <p>宏观方面，上海期货交易所发布《关于在黄金和铜期货品种实施交易限额的通知》，对黄金、铜期货品种实施交易限额。非期货公司会员、客户在黄金期货品种日内开仓交易最大数量为2800手，铜期货品种日内开仓交易最大数量为2000手。美国3月CPI数据再超预期，至此进入今年以来通胀已经连续三个月超预期;数据显示，美国3月CPI同比增3.5%，预期3.4%，前值3.2%;环比增0.4%，预期0.3%，持平前值。美国3月核心CPI同比增3.8%，预期3.7%持平前值;核心CPI环比增0.4%，预期0.3%，持平前值，1月份也为0.4%。华尔街分析师普遍认为，美联储6月降息几无可能，甚至需要开始考虑加息的可能性。基本面方面，上周下游订单表现不理想，在高铜价下部分订单开始出现执行乏力的情况，尤其是部分高价订单向下传导难度较大，导致订单开始出现阶段的减弱，这一情况还需要一定的时间传导，个别地区的边际需求开始出现明显的下滑。</p> <p><strong>机械行业动态信息一览</strong></p> <p><strong>1</strong><strong>、一季度中国小松挖掘机开工小时数累计201.3</strong><strong>小时，同比降9.2%</strong></p> <p>近日，小松官网公布了2024年3月小松挖掘机开工小时数数据。数据显示，2024年3月，中国小松挖掘机开工小时数为93小时，同比下降10.8%，环比提高228.6%。</p> <p>2024年一季度，中国小松挖掘机开工小时数累计201.3小时，同比下降9.2%。</p> <p>从全球其他地区来看，2024年3月份，日本、欧洲、北美、印尼小松挖掘机开工小时数均同比负增长。具体数据如下：</p> <p>日本3月小松挖机开工小时数为46小时，同比下降3.5%，环比下降4%；</p> <p>欧洲3月小松挖机开工小时数为70小时，同比下降8.9%，环比提高5.6%；</p> <p>北美3月小松挖机开工小时数为62.5小时，同比下降11.9%，环比保持不变；</p> <p>印尼3月小松挖机开工小时数为205.3小时，同比下降2.7%，环比提高11%。</p> <p><strong>2</strong><strong>、3</strong><strong>月国内挖掘机销量15188</strong><strong>台，同比增长9.27%</strong></p> <p>挖掘机</p> <p>据中国工程机械工业协会对挖掘机主要制造企业统计，2024年3月销售各类挖掘机24980台，同比下降2.34%，其中国内15188台，同比增长9.27%；出口9792台，同比下降16.2%。</p> <p>2024年1-3月，共销售挖掘机49964台，同比下降13.1%；其中国内26446台，同比下降8.26%；出口23518台，同比下降17.9%。</p> <p>2024年3月销售电动挖掘机12台（6吨级以下8台，10至18.5吨级1台，18.5至28.5吨级1台，40吨级以上2台）。</p> <p>装载机</p> <p>据中国工程机械工业协会对装载机主要制造企业统计，2024年3月销售各类装载机12324台，同比下降5.78%。其中国内市场销量6629台，同比下降15.2%；出口销量5695台，同比增长8.13%。</p> <p>2024年1-3月，共销售各类装载机26621台，同比下降9.09%。其中国内市场销量13136台，同比下降16.9%；出口销量13485台，同比增长0.07%。</p> <p>2024年3月销售电动装载机686台（ 3吨1台，5吨586台，6吨86台，7吨12台，8吨1台）。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：刘儒 021-26096617 </br> 资讯监督：胡赛男 021-26093781 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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