广发期货：铁矿石基本面上供增需平-我的钢铁网

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href='https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-4262,7073-------------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁水产量</a>环比-0.4万吨至247.8万吨。钢厂主动补库，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0311-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>进口矿</a>小幅下降，库消比环比上升。7月<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0305-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>生铁</a>产量7760万吨，环比+61.92万吨，同比+711.38万吨；1-7月生铁产量52892万吨，同比+1802.26万吨。7月粗钢产量9080万吨，环比-31.04万吨，同比+937.14万吨；1-7月粗钢产量62651万吨，同比+1722.98万吨。</p> <p>【供给】中长期来看，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-5735,3970-------------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石供应</a>宽松格局未改。二季度（自然年）产量来看淡水河谷产量（含<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/price/p-10480-031116-1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>球团</a>矿）8785.4万吨环比+1276.2万吨（17%），同比+507.4万吨（+6.1%）；力拓产量（含球团矿与铁精粉）8476.4万吨，环比+116.60万吨（1.4%），同比+168.8万吨（+2%）。必和必拓（100%权益+Samarco）季度产量7393.8万吨，环比+672.70万吨（+10%），同比+127.8万吨（+1.8%）；FMG产量5270万吨，环比+240万吨（+1.8%），同比-650万吨（-11%）。全年产销目标来看，四大矿山全年供应增量共计约1000万吨。其中，淡水河谷维持不变；力拓下调IOC球团矿与精粉产量下调50万产量目标；必和必拓上调产量目标500-550万吨（西澳产区上调400万吨，Samarco上调100-150万吨）；FMG发运目标上调500万吨。进口矿来看，8月<a href='https://tks.m.mysteel.com/datas/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石进口量</a>10641.5万吨，环比+1293.50万吨，同比+1020.50万吨；8月累计进口量77565.8万吨，同比+5273.8万吨。国产矿来看，7月份国内<a href='https://tks.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石</a><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-458-------------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>原矿</a>产量8570.90万吨，环比+55.36万吨，同比+548.22万吨；1-7月产量56679.70万吨，同比+548.22万吨。</p> <p>【库存】港口库存11865.75万吨，环比周二+67.1万吨，环比上周四-2.12万吨；钢厂进口矿库存环比+300.6万吨至8832.5万吨。</p> <p>【观点】基本面上供增需平，宏观利多政策出台提振盘面情绪。基本面上，供增需平，钢厂主动补库，港口库存基本持平。供应来看，本周到港量环比+724.2万吨至2702.9万吨，澳巴发运量环比-243.7万吨至2519.2万吨，考虑到近期发运量水平高于近几年同期水平，预计后期到港量中枢逐步抬升。需求来看，日均铁水产量小幅下降，钢厂主动补库，进口矿小幅下降，库消比环比上升。钢厂反馈暂无减产计划，铁水产量维持高位运行，港口库存小幅去库。近期宏观托底政策预期逐步兑现，部分钢厂开始节前补库，但监管机构再次释放价格打压信号，考虑铁水产量有见顶预期，操作上，短空I2310-I2405价差，参考区间【80-90】。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：祝蓉 021-66896654 </br> 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-3578-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a 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