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class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Contrary_evidence"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">1.1.3</span> <span>Contrary evidence</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Contrary_evidence-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Overprecision" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Overprecision"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">1.2</span> <span>Overprecision</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Overprecision-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Confidence_intervals" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Confidence_intervals"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">1.2.1</span> <span>Confidence intervals</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Confidence_intervals-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Overplacement" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Overplacement"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">1.3</span> <span>Overplacement</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Overplacement-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Manifestations" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Manifestations"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">1.3.1</span> <span>Manifestations</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Manifestations-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Better-than-average_effects" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-4"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Better-than-average_effects"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">1.3.1.1</span> <span>Better-than-average effects</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Better-than-average_effects-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Comparative-optimism_effects" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-4"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Comparative-optimism_effects"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">1.3.1.2</span> <span>Comparative-optimism effects</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Comparative-optimism_effects-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Positive_illusions" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-4"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Positive_illusions"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">1.3.1.3</span> <span>Positive illusions</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Positive_illusions-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Social_knowledge" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Social_knowledge"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">1.4</span> <span>Social knowledge</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Social_knowledge-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Practical_implications" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Practical_implications"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2</span> <span>Practical implications</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Practical_implications-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle Practical implications subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-Practical_implications-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Overconfidence_among_experts" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Overconfidence_among_experts"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.1</span> <span>Overconfidence among experts</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Overconfidence_among_experts-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Individual_differences" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Individual_differences"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3</span> <span>Individual differences</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Individual_differences-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Catastrophes" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Catastrophes"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4</span> <span>Catastrophes</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Catastrophes-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-See_also" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#See_also"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5</span> <span>See also</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-See_also-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-References" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#References"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6</span> <span>References</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-References-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Notes" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Notes"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">7</span> <span>Notes</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Notes-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Further_reading" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Further_reading"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8</span> <span>Further reading</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Further_reading-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div class="mw-content-container"> <main id="content" class="mw-body"> <header class="mw-body-header vector-page-titlebar"> <nav aria-label="Contents" class="vector-toc-landmark"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown vector-page-titlebar-toc vector-button-flush-left" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Toggle the table of contents" > <label id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-label" for="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only " aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-listBullet mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-listBullet"></span> <span 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Available in 13 languages" > <label id="p-lang-btn-label" for="p-lang-btn-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--action-progressive mw-portlet-lang-heading-13" aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-language-progressive mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-language-progressive"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">13 languages</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ar mw-list-item"><a href="https://ar.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%AA%D8%A3%D8%AB%D9%8A%D8%B1_%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AB%D9%82%D8%A9_%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%BA%D8%A9" title="تأثير الثقة المبالغة – Arabic" lang="ar" hreflang="ar" data-title="تأثير الثقة المبالغة" data-language-autonym="العربية" data-language-local-name="Arabic" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>العربية</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-cs mw-list-item"><a href="https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efekt_nadm%C4%9Brn%C3%A9_sebed%C5%AFv%C4%9Bry" title="Efekt nadměrné sebedůvěry – Czech" lang="cs" hreflang="cs" data-title="Efekt nadměrné sebedůvěry" data-language-autonym="Čeština" data-language-local-name="Czech" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Čeština</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-de mw-list-item"><a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selbst%C3%BCbersch%C3%A4tzung" title="Selbstüberschätzung – German" lang="de" hreflang="de" data-title="Selbstüberschätzung" data-language-autonym="Deutsch" data-language-local-name="German" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Deutsch</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-es mw-list-item"><a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efecto_superconfianza" title="Efecto superconfianza – Spanish" lang="es" hreflang="es" data-title="Efecto superconfianza" data-language-autonym="Español" data-language-local-name="Spanish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Español</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fa mw-list-item"><a href="https://fa.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%A7%D8%AB%D8%B1_%D8%A8%DB%8C%D8%B4%E2%80%8C%D8%A7%D8%B7%D9%85%DB%8C%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C" title="اثر بیش‌اطمینانی – Persian" lang="fa" hreflang="fa" data-title="اثر بیش‌اطمینانی" data-language-autonym="فارسی" data-language-local-name="Persian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>فارسی</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fr mw-list-item"><a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exc%C3%A8s_de_confiance" title="Excès de confiance – French" lang="fr" hreflang="fr" data-title="Excès de confiance" data-language-autonym="Français" data-language-local-name="French" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Français</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-id mw-list-item"><a href="https://id.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efek_terlalu_percaya_diri" title="Efek terlalu percaya diri – Indonesian" lang="id" hreflang="id" data-title="Efek terlalu percaya diri" data-language-autonym="Bahasa Indonesia" data-language-local-name="Indonesian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Bahasa Indonesia</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-he mw-list-item"><a href="https://he.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D7%90%D7%A4%D7%A7%D7%98_%D7%91%D7%99%D7%98%D7%97%D7%95%D7%9F_%D7%99%D7%AA%D7%A8" title="אפקט ביטחון יתר – Hebrew" lang="he" hreflang="he" data-title="אפקט ביטחון יתר" data-language-autonym="עברית" data-language-local-name="Hebrew" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>עברית</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-pfl mw-list-item"><a href="https://pfl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selbst%C3%BCbersch%C3%A4tzung" title="Selbstüberschätzung – Palatine German" lang="pfl" hreflang="pfl" data-title="Selbstüberschätzung" data-language-autonym="Pälzisch" data-language-local-name="Palatine German" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Pälzisch</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ru mw-list-item"><a href="https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%AD%D1%84%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%82_%D1%81%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%80%D1%85%D1%83%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8" title="Эффект сверхуверенности – Russian" lang="ru" hreflang="ru" data-title="Эффект сверхуверенности" data-language-autonym="Русский" data-language-local-name="Russian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Русский</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-th mw-list-item"><a href="https://th.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E0%B8%9B%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%8F%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%93%E0%B9%8C%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%8A%E0%B8%B7%E0%B9%88%E0%B8%AD%E0%B8%A1%E0%B8%B1%E0%B9%88%E0%B8%99%E0%B8%A1%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%81%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%B4%E0%B8%99%E0%B9%84%E0%B8%9B" title="ปรากฏการณ์เชื่อมั่นมากเกินไป – Thai" lang="th" hreflang="th" data-title="ปรากฏการณ์เชื่อมั่นมากเกินไป" data-language-autonym="ไทย" data-language-local-name="Thai" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>ไทย</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-uk mw-list-item"><a href="https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%95%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%82_%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%BC%D1%96%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%97_%D0%B2%D0%BF%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%96" title="Ефект надмірної впевненості – Ukrainian" lang="uk" hreflang="uk" data-title="Ефект надмірної впевненості" data-language-autonym="Українська" data-language-local-name="Ukrainian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Українська</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-zh mw-list-item"><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%81%8E%E5%BA%A6%E8%87%AA%E4%BF%A1%E6%95%88%E6%87%89" title="過度自信效應 – Chinese" lang="zh" hreflang="zh" data-title="過度自信效應" data-language-autonym="中文" data-language-local-name="Chinese" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>中文</span></a></li> </ul> <div class="after-portlet after-portlet-lang"><span class="wb-langlinks-edit wb-langlinks-link"><a href="https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Special:EntityPage/Q16503490#sitelinks-wikipedia" title="Edit interlanguage links" class="wbc-editpage">Edit links</a></span></div> </div> </div> </div> </header> <div class="vector-page-toolbar"> <div class="vector-page-toolbar-container"> <div id="left-navigation"> <nav aria-label="Namespaces"> <div id="p-associated-pages" class="vector-menu vector-menu-tabs mw-portlet mw-portlet-associated-pages" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="ca-nstab-main" class="selected vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Overconfidence_effect" title="View the content page [c]" accesskey="c"><span>Article</span></a></li><li id="ca-talk" class="vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Talk:Overconfidence_effect" rel="discussion" title="Discuss 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class="mw-body-content"><div class="mw-content-ltr mw-parser-output" lang="en" dir="ltr"><div class="shortdescription nomobile noexcerpt noprint searchaux" style="display:none">Personal cognitive bias</div> <p>The <b>overconfidence effect</b> is a well-established <a href="/wiki/Cognitive_bias" title="Cognitive bias">bias</a> in which a person's subjective <i>confidence</i> in their judgments is reliably greater than the objective <i>accuracy</i> of those judgments, especially when confidence is relatively high.<sup id="cite_ref-Pallier2002_1-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Pallier2002-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Overconfidence is one example of a miscalibration of <a href="/wiki/Subjective_probability" class="mw-redirect" title="Subjective probability">subjective probabilities</a>. Throughout the research literature, overconfidence has been defined in three distinct ways: (1) <i>overestimation</i> of one's actual performance; (2) <i>overplacement</i> of one's performance relative to others; and (3) <i>overprecision</i> in expressing unwarranted certainty in the accuracy of one's beliefs.<sup id="cite_ref-MooreHealy2008_3-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-MooreHealy2008-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The most common way in which overconfidence has been studied is by asking people how confident they are of specific beliefs they hold or answers they provide. The data show that confidence systematically exceeds accuracy, implying people are more sure that they are correct than they deserve to be. If human confidence had perfect calibration, judgments with 100% confidence would be correct 100% of the time, 90% confidence correct 90% of the time, and so on for the other levels of confidence. By contrast, the key finding is that confidence exceeds accuracy so long as the subject is answering hard questions about an unfamiliar topic. For example, in a spelling task, subjects were correct about 80% of the time, whereas they claimed to be 100% certain.<sup id="cite_ref-Adams1960_5-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Adams1960-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Put another way, the error rate was 20% when subjects expected it to be 0%. In a series where subjects made true-or-false responses to general knowledge statements, they were overconfident at all levels. When they were 100% certain of their answer to a question, they were wrong 20% of the time.<sup id="cite_ref-state_6-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-state-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Types">Types</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Overconfidence_effect&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Types"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Overestimation">Overestimation</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Overconfidence_effect&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Overestimation"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>One manifestation of the overconfidence effect is the tendency to overestimate one's standing on a dimension of judgment or performance. This subsection of overconfidence focuses on the certainty one feels in their own ability, performance, level of control, or chance of success. This phenomenon is most likely to occur on hard tasks, hard items, when failure is likely or when the individual making the estimate is not especially skilled. Overestimation has been seen to occur across domains other than those pertaining to one's own performance. This includes the <i><a href="/wiki/Illusion_of_control" title="Illusion of control">illusion of control</a></i>, <i><a href="/wiki/Planning_fallacy" title="Planning fallacy">planning fallacy</a></i>.<sup id="cite_ref-MooreHealy2008_3-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-MooreHealy2008-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Illusion_of_control">Illusion of control</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Overconfidence_effect&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: Illusion of control"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Illusion of control describes the tendency for people to behave as if they might have some control when in fact they have none.<sup id="cite_ref-Langer1975_7-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Langer1975-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> However, evidence does not support the notion that people systematically overestimate how much control they have; when they have a great deal of control, people tend to underestimate how much control they have.<sup id="cite_ref-GinoSharek2011_8-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-GinoSharek2011-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Planning_fallacy">Planning fallacy</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Overconfidence_effect&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: Planning fallacy"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The <a href="/wiki/Planning_fallacy" title="Planning fallacy">planning fallacy</a> describes the tendency for people to overestimate their rate of work or to underestimate how long it will take them to get things done.<sup id="cite_ref-BuehlerGriffin1994_9-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-BuehlerGriffin1994-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> It is strongest for long and complicated tasks, and disappears or reverses for simple tasks that are quick to complete. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Contrary_evidence">Contrary evidence</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Overconfidence_effect&action=edit&section=5" title="Edit section: Contrary evidence"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Wishful-thinking effects, in which people overestimate the likelihood of an event because of its desirability, are relatively rare.<sup id="cite_ref-KrizanWindschitl2007_10-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-KrizanWindschitl2007-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This may be in part because people engage in more <a href="/wiki/Defensive_pessimism" title="Defensive pessimism">defensive pessimism</a> in advance of important outcomes,<sup id="cite_ref-NoremCantor1986_11-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-NoremCantor1986-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> in an attempt to reduce the disappointment that follows overly optimistic predictions.<sup id="cite_ref-McGrawMellers2004_12-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-McGrawMellers2004-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Overprecision">Overprecision</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Overconfidence_effect&action=edit&section=6" title="Edit section: Overprecision"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Overprecision is the excessive confidence that one knows the truth. For reviews, see Harvey<sup id="cite_ref-Harvey1997_13-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Harvey1997-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> or Hoffrage.<sup id="cite_ref-14" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Much of the evidence for overprecision comes from studies in which participants are asked about their confidence that individual items are correct. This paradigm, while useful, cannot distinguish overestimation from overprecision; they are one and the same in these item-confidence judgments. After making a series of item-confidence judgments, if people try to estimate the number of items they got right, they do not tend to systematically overestimate their scores. The average of their item-confidence judgments exceeds the count of items they claim to have gotten right.<sup id="cite_ref-Gigerenzer1993_15-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Gigerenzer1993-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> One possible explanation for this is that item-confidence judgments were inflated by overprecision, and that their judgments do not demonstrate systematic overestimation. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Confidence_intervals">Confidence intervals</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Overconfidence_effect&action=edit&section=7" title="Edit section: Confidence intervals"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The strongest evidence of overprecision comes from studies in which participants are asked to indicate how precise their knowledge is by specifying a 90% confidence interval around estimates of specific quantities. If people were perfectly calibrated, their 90% confidence intervals would include the correct answer 90% of the time.<sup id="cite_ref-AlpertRaiffa1982_16-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-AlpertRaiffa1982-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In fact, hit rates are often as low as 50%, suggesting people have drawn their confidence intervals too narrowly, implying that they think their knowledge is more accurate than it actually is. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Overplacement">Overplacement</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Overconfidence_effect&action=edit&section=8" title="Edit section: Overplacement"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Overplacement is the most prominent manifestation of the overconfidence effect which is a belief that erroneously rates someone as better than others.<sup id="cite_ref-17" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-17"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>17<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This subsection of overconfidence occurs when people believe themselves to be better than others, or "better-than-average".<sup id="cite_ref-MooreHealy2008_3-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-MooreHealy2008-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> It is the act of placing yourself or rating yourself above others (superior to others). Overplacement more often occurs on simple tasks, ones we believe are easy to accomplish successfully. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Manifestations">Manifestations</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Overconfidence_effect&action=edit&section=9" title="Edit section: Manifestations"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading5"><h5 id="Better-than-average_effects">Better-than-average effects</h5><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Overconfidence_effect&action=edit&section=10" title="Edit section: Better-than-average effects"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1236090951">.mw-parser-output .hatnote{font-style:italic}.mw-parser-output div.hatnote{padding-left:1.6em;margin-bottom:0.5em}.mw-parser-output .hatnote i{font-style:normal}.mw-parser-output .hatnote+link+.hatnote{margin-top:-0.5em}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .hatnote{display:none!important}}</style><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/Illusory_superiority" title="Illusory superiority">Illusory superiority</a></div> <p>Perhaps the most celebrated better-than-average finding is Svenson's finding that 93% of American drivers rate themselves as better than the median.<sup id="cite_ref-Svenson1981_18-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Svenson1981-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The frequency with which school systems claim their students outperform national averages has been dubbed the "Lake Wobegon" effect, after Garrison Keillor's apocryphal town in which "all the children are above average."<sup id="cite_ref-Cannell1989_19-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Cannell1989-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Overplacement has likewise been documented in a wide variety of other circumstances.<sup id="cite_ref-Dunning2012_20-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Dunning2012-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Kruger, however, showed that this effect is limited to "easy" tasks in which success is common or in which people feel competent. For difficult tasks, the effect reverses itself and people believe they are worse than others.<sup id="cite_ref-Kruger1999_21-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Kruger1999-21"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>21<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading5"><h5 id="Comparative-optimism_effects">Comparative-optimism effects</h5><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Overconfidence_effect&action=edit&section=11" title="Edit section: Comparative-optimism effects"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Some researchers have claimed that people think good things are more likely to happen to them than to others, whereas bad events were less likely to happen to them than to others.<sup id="cite_ref-Weinstein1980_22-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Weinstein1980-22"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>22<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> But others have pointed out that prior work tended to examine good outcomes that happened to be common (such as owning one's own home) and bad outcomes that happened to be rare (such as being struck by lightning).<sup id="cite_ref-ChambersWindschitl2004_23-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ChambersWindschitl2004-23"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>23<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-ChambersWindschitl2003_24-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ChambersWindschitl2003-24"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>24<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-KrugerBurrus2004_25-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-KrugerBurrus2004-25"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>25<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Event frequency accounts for a proportion of prior findings of comparative optimism. People think common events (such as living past 70) are more likely to happen to them than to others, and rare events (such as living past 100) are less likely to happen to them than to others. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading5"><h5 id="Positive_illusions">Positive illusions</h5><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Overconfidence_effect&action=edit&section=12" title="Edit section: Positive illusions"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/Positive_illusions" title="Positive illusions">Positive illusions</a></div> <p>Taylor and Brown have argued that people cling to overly positive beliefs about themselves, illusions of control, and beliefs in false superiority, because it helps them cope and thrive.<sup id="cite_ref-TaylorBrown1988_26-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-TaylorBrown1988-26"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>26<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Although there is some evidence that optimistic beliefs are correlated with better life outcomes, most of the research documenting such links is vulnerable to the alternative explanation that their forecasts are accurate. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Social_knowledge">Social knowledge</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Overconfidence_effect&action=edit&section=13" title="Edit section: Social knowledge"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>People tend to overestimate what they personally know, unconsciously assuming they know facts they would actually need to access by asking someone else or consulting a written work. Asking people to explain how something works (like a bicycle, helicopter, or international policy) exposes knowledge gaps and reduces the overestimation of knowledge on that topic.<sup id="cite_ref-27" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-27"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>27<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Practical_implications">Practical implications</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Overconfidence_effect&action=edit&section=14" title="Edit section: Practical implications"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1224211176">.mw-parser-output .quotebox{background-color:#F9F9F9;border:1px solid #aaa;box-sizing:border-box;padding:10px;font-size:88%;max-width:100%}.mw-parser-output .quotebox.floatleft{margin:.5em 1.4em .8em 0}.mw-parser-output .quotebox.floatright{margin:.5em 0 .8em 1.4em}.mw-parser-output .quotebox.centered{overflow:hidden;position:relative;margin:.5em auto .8em auto}.mw-parser-output .quotebox.floatleft span,.mw-parser-output .quotebox.floatright span{font-style:inherit}.mw-parser-output .quotebox>blockquote{margin:0;padding:0;border-left:0;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit}.mw-parser-output .quotebox-title{text-align:center;font-size:110%;font-weight:bold}.mw-parser-output .quotebox-quote>:first-child{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .quotebox-quote:last-child>:last-child{margin-bottom:0}.mw-parser-output .quotebox-quote.quoted:before{font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;font-weight:bold;font-size:large;color:gray;content:" “ ";vertical-align:-45%;line-height:0}.mw-parser-output .quotebox-quote.quoted:after{font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;font-weight:bold;font-size:large;color:gray;content:" ” ";line-height:0}.mw-parser-output .quotebox .left-aligned{text-align:left}.mw-parser-output .quotebox .right-aligned{text-align:right}.mw-parser-output .quotebox .center-aligned{text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .quotebox .quote-title,.mw-parser-output .quotebox .quotebox-quote{display:block}.mw-parser-output .quotebox cite{display:block;font-style:normal}@media screen and (max-width:640px){.mw-parser-output .quotebox{width:100%!important;margin:0 0 .8em!important;float:none!important}}</style><div class="quotebox pullquote floatright" style="width:30%; ;"> <blockquote class="quotebox-quote left-aligned" style=""> <p>"Overconfident professionals sincerely believe they have expertise, act as experts and look like experts. You will have to struggle to remind yourself that they may be in the grip of an illusion." </p> </blockquote> <p style="padding-bottom: 0;"><cite class="left-aligned" style="">—<a href="/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman" title="Daniel Kahneman">Daniel Kahneman</a><sup id="cite_ref-28" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-28"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>28<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></cite></p> </div> <p>Social psychologist Scott Plous wrote, "No problem in judgment and decision making is more prevalent and more potentially catastrophic than overconfidence."<sup id="cite_ref-29" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-29"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>29<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> It has been blamed for lawsuits, strikes, wars, poor corporate acquisitions,<sup id="cite_ref-30" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-30"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>30<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-31" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-31"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>31<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and stock market bubbles and crashes. </p><p>Strikes, lawsuits, and wars could arise from overplacement. If plaintiffs and defendants were prone to believe that they were more deserving, fair, and righteous than their legal opponents, that could help account for the persistence of inefficient enduring legal disputes.<sup id="cite_ref-ThompsonLoewenstein1992_32-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ThompsonLoewenstein1992-32"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>32<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> If corporations and unions were prone to believe that they were stronger and more justified than the other side, that could contribute to their willingness to endure labor strikes.<sup id="cite_ref-BabcockOlson1992_33-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-BabcockOlson1992-33"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>33<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> If nations were prone to believe that their militaries were stronger than were those of other nations, that could explain their willingness to go to war.<sup id="cite_ref-Johnson2004_34-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Johnson2004-34"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>34<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Overprecision could have important implications for investing behavior and stock market trading. Because Bayesians cannot agree to disagree,<sup id="cite_ref-Aumann1976_35-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Aumann1976-35"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>35<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> classical finance theory has trouble explaining why, if stock market traders are fully rational Bayesians, there is so much trading in the stock market. Overprecision might be one answer.<sup id="cite_ref-DanielHirshleifer1998_36-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-DanielHirshleifer1998-36"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>36<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> If market actors are too sure their estimates of an asset's value is correct, they will be too willing to trade with others who have different information than they do. </p><p>Oskamp tested groups of <a href="/wiki/Clinical_psychologists" class="mw-redirect" title="Clinical psychologists">clinical psychologists</a> and <a href="/wiki/Psychology" title="Psychology">psychology</a> students on a multiple-choice task in which they drew conclusions from a <a href="/wiki/Case_study" title="Case study">case study</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-oskamp_37-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-oskamp-37"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>37<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Along with their answers, subjects gave a confidence rating in the form of a percentage likelihood of being correct. This allowed confidence to be compared against accuracy. As the subjects were given more information about the case study, their confidence increased from 33% to 53%. However their accuracy did not significantly improve, staying under 30%. Hence this experiment demonstrated overconfidence which increased as the subjects had more information to base their judgment on.<sup id="cite_ref-oskamp_37-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-oskamp-37"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>37<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Even if there is no general tendency toward overconfidence, social dynamics and <a href="/wiki/Adverse_selection" title="Adverse selection">adverse selection</a> could conceivably promote it. For instance, those most likely to have the courage to start a new business are those who most overplace their abilities relative to those of other potential entrants. And if voters find confident leaders more credible, then contenders for leadership learn that they should express more confidence than their opponents in order to win election.<sup id="cite_ref-RadzevickMoore2009_38-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-RadzevickMoore2009-38"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>38<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> However, Overconfidence can be liability or asset during the political election. Candidates tend to lose advantage when verbally expressed overconfidence does not meet current performance, and tend to gain advantage express overconfidence non-verbally.<sup id="cite_ref-39" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-39"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>39<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Overconfidence can be beneficial to individual <a href="/wiki/Self-esteem" title="Self-esteem">self-esteem</a> as well as giving an individual the <a href="/wiki/Volition_(psychology)" title="Volition (psychology)">will</a> to succeed in their desired goal. Just believing in oneself may give one the will to take one's endeavours further than those who do not.<sup id="cite_ref-Seed2011_40-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Seed2011-40"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>40<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Overconfidence_among_experts">Overconfidence among experts</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Overconfidence_effect&action=edit&section=15" title="Edit section: Overconfidence among experts"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Kahneman and Klein further document how most experts can be beaten by simple <a href="/wiki/Heuristic" title="Heuristic">heuristics</a> developed by intelligent lay people. Genuine expert intuition is acquired by learning from frequent, rapid, high-quality feedback about the quality of previous judgments.<sup id="cite_ref-41" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-41"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>41<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Few professionals have that. Those who master a body of knowledge without learning from such expertise are called "respect experts" by Kahneman, Sibony, and Sunstein. With some data, ordinary least squares (OLS) models often outperform simple heuristics. With lots of data, artificial intelligence (AI) routinely outperforms OLS.<sup id="cite_ref-42" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-42"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>42<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Individual_differences">Individual differences</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Overconfidence_effect&action=edit&section=16" title="Edit section: Individual differences"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Very high levels of <a href="/wiki/Core_self-evaluations" title="Core self-evaluations">core self-evaluations</a>, a stable personality trait composed of <a href="/wiki/Locus_of_control" title="Locus of control">locus of control</a>, <a href="/wiki/Neuroticism" title="Neuroticism">neuroticism</a>, <a href="/wiki/Self-efficacy" title="Self-efficacy">self-efficacy</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Self-esteem" title="Self-esteem">self-esteem</a>,<sup id="cite_ref-Judge1997_43-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Judge1997-43"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>43<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> may lead to the overconfidence effect. People who have high core self-evaluations will think positively of themselves and be confident in their own abilities,<sup id="cite_ref-Judge1997_43-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Judge1997-43"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>43<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> although extremely high levels of core self-evaluations may cause an individual to be more confident than is warranted. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Catastrophes">Catastrophes</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Overconfidence_effect&action=edit&section=17" title="Edit section: Catastrophes"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The following is an incomplete list of events related or triggered by bias/overconfidence and a failing <a href="/wiki/Safety_culture" title="Safety culture">(safety) culture</a>:<sup id="cite_ref-44" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-44"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>44<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster" title="Chernobyl disaster">Chernobyl disaster</a><sup id="cite_ref-45" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-45"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>45<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sinking_of_the_Titanic" title="Sinking of the Titanic">Sinking of the Titanic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Space_Shuttle_Challenger_disaster" title="Space Shuttle Challenger disaster">Space Shuttle Challenger disaster</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Space_Shuttle_Columbia_disaster" title="Space Shuttle Columbia disaster">Space Shuttle Columbia disaster</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill" title="Deepwater Horizon oil spill">Deepwater Horizon oil spill</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Titan_submersible_implosion" title="Titan submersible implosion"><em>Titan</em> submersible implosion</a></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Overconfidence_effect&action=edit&section=18" title="Edit section: See also"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239009302">.mw-parser-output .portalbox{padding:0;margin:0.5em 0;display:table;box-sizing:border-box;max-width:175px;list-style:none}.mw-parser-output .portalborder{border:1px solid var(--border-color-base,#a2a9b1);padding:0.1em;background:var(--background-color-neutral-subtle,#f8f9fa)}.mw-parser-output .portalbox-entry{display:table-row;font-size:85%;line-height:110%;height:1.9em;font-style:italic;font-weight:bold}.mw-parser-output .portalbox-image{display:table-cell;padding:0.2em;vertical-align:middle;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .portalbox-link{display:table-cell;padding:0.2em 0.2em 0.2em 0.3em;vertical-align:middle}@media(min-width:720px){.mw-parser-output .portalleft{clear:left;float:left;margin:0.5em 1em 0.5em 0}.mw-parser-output .portalright{clear:right;float:right;margin:0.5em 0 0.5em 1em}}</style><ul role="navigation" aria-label="Portals" class="noprint portalbox portalborder portalright"> <li class="portalbox-entry"><span class="portalbox-image"><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6c/Psi2.svg/28px-Psi2.svg.png" decoding="async" width="28" height="28" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6c/Psi2.svg/42px-Psi2.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6c/Psi2.svg/56px-Psi2.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="100" data-file-height="100" /></span></span></span><span class="portalbox-link"><a href="/wiki/Portal:Psychology" title="Portal:Psychology">Psychology portal</a></span></li></ul> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1184024115">.mw-parser-output .div-col{margin-top:0.3em;column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .div-col-small{font-size:90%}.mw-parser-output .div-col-rules{column-rule:1px solid #aaa}.mw-parser-output .div-col dl,.mw-parser-output .div-col ol,.mw-parser-output .div-col ul{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .div-col li,.mw-parser-output .div-col dd{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}</style><div class="div-col" style="column-width: 30em;"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Calibrated_probability_assessment" title="Calibrated probability assessment">Calibrated probability assessment</a> – Subjective probabilities assigned in a way that historically represents their uncertainty</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Confidence" title="Confidence">Confidence</a> – State of trusting that a belief or course of action is correct</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect" title="Dunning–Kruger effect">Dunning–Kruger effect</a> – Cognitive bias about one's own skill</li> <li><a href="/wiki/False_consensus_effect" title="False consensus effect">False consensus effect</a> – Attributional type of cognitive bias</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hard%E2%80%93easy_effect" title="Hard–easy effect">Hard–easy effect</a> – Cognitive bias relating to mis-estimating success based on perceived difficulty</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hindsight_bias" title="Hindsight bias">Hindsight bias</a> – Type of confirmation bias</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Heuristics_in_judgment_and_decision-making" class="mw-redirect" title="Heuristics in judgment and decision-making">Heuristics in judgment and decision-making</a> – Simple strategies or mental processes involved in making quick decisions<span style="display:none" class="category-annotation-with-redirected-description">Pages displaying short descriptions of redirect targets</span></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Impostor_syndrome" title="Impostor syndrome">Impostor syndrome</a> – Psychological pattern</li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases" title="List of cognitive biases">List of cognitive biases</a> – Systematic patterns of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Misplaced_loyalty" title="Misplaced loyalty">Misplaced loyalty</a> – Loyalty placed where it is not respected or to an unworthy cause</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Optimism_bias" title="Optimism bias">Optimism bias</a> – Type of cognitive bias</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Depressive_realism" title="Depressive realism">Depressive realism</a> – Hypothesis about depression</li></ul></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Overconfidence_effect&action=edit&section=19" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription.id-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg")right 0.1em center/12px no-repeat}body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-free a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background-size:contain;padding:0 1em 0 0}.mw-parser-output .cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#085;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-selflink{font-weight:inherit}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}</style><cite id="CITEREFScott_Plous1993" class="citation book cs1"><a href="/wiki/Scott_Plous" title="Scott Plous">Scott Plous</a> (1993). <i>The psychology of judgment and decision making</i>. <a href="/wiki/S%26P_Global" title="S&P Global">S&P Global</a>. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/0-07-050477-6" title="Special:BookSources/0-07-050477-6"><bdi>0-07-050477-6</bdi></a>. <a href="/wiki/WDQ_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="WDQ (identifier)">Wikidata</a> <a href="https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q118105219" class="extiw" title="d:Q118105219">Q118105219</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=The+psychology+of+judgment+and+decision+making&rft.pub=S%26P+Global&rft.date=1993&rft.isbn=0-07-050477-6&rft.au=Scott+Plous&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOverconfidence+effect" class="Z3988"></span></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Notes">Notes</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Overconfidence_effect&action=edit&section=20" title="Edit section: Notes"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style><div class="reflist reflist-columns references-column-width" style="column-width: 30em;"> <ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-Pallier2002-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-Pallier2002_1-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFPallierWilkinsonDanthiirKleitman2002" class="citation journal cs1">Pallier, Gerry; Wilkinson, Rebecca; Danthiir, Vanessa; Kleitman, Sabina; Knezevic, Goran; Stankov, Lazar; Roberts, Richard D. (2002). 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P. (2011-01-07). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20110812213158/http://seedmagazine.com/content/article/on_overconfidence/">"On Overconfidence"</a>. <i><a href="/wiki/Seed_Magazine" class="mw-redirect" title="Seed Magazine">Seed Magazine</a></i>. <a href="/wiki/ISSN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISSN (identifier)">ISSN</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://search.worldcat.org/issn/1499-0679">1499-0679</a>. Archived from the original on 2011-08-12<span class="reference-accessdate">. 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Klein</a> (1 September 2009). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/26798603_Conditions_for_Intuitive_Expertise_A_Failure_to_Disagree">"Conditions for intuitive expertise: a failure to disagree"</a>. <i><a href="/wiki/American_Psychologist" title="American Psychologist">American Psychologist</a></i>. <b>64</b> (6): 515–526. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1037%2FA0016755">10.1037/A0016755</a>. <a href="/wiki/ISSN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISSN (identifier)">ISSN</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://search.worldcat.org/issn/0003-066X">0003-066X</a>. <a href="/wiki/PMID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMID (identifier)">PMID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19739881">19739881</a>. <a href="/wiki/WDQ_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="WDQ (identifier)">Wikidata</a> <a href="https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q35001791" class="extiw" title="d:Q35001791">Q35001791</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=American+Psychologist&rft.atitle=Conditions+for+intuitive+expertise%3A+a+failure+to+disagree&rft.volume=64&rft.issue=6&rft.pages=515-526&rft.date=2009-09-01&rft.issn=0003-066X&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F19739881&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1037%2FA0016755&rft.au=Daniel+Kahneman&rft.au=Gary+A.+Klein&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F26798603_Conditions_for_Intuitive_Expertise_A_Failure_to_Disagree&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOverconfidence+effect" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-42"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-42">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFDaniel_KahnemanOlivier_SibonyCass_Sunstein2021" class="citation book cs1"><a href="/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman" title="Daniel Kahneman">Daniel Kahneman</a>; <a href="/wiki/Olivier_Sibony" title="Olivier Sibony">Olivier Sibony</a>; <a href="/wiki/Cass_Sunstein" title="Cass Sunstein">Cass Sunstein</a> (18 May 2021). <i>Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment</i>. 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(1997). "The dispositional causes of job satisfaction: A core evaluations approach". <i>Research in Organizational Behavior</i>. Vol. 19. Elsevier Science. pp. 151–188. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0762301799" title="Special:BookSources/978-0762301799"><bdi>978-0762301799</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=bookitem&rft.atitle=The+dispositional+causes+of+job+satisfaction%3A+A+core+evaluations+approach&rft.btitle=Research+in+Organizational+Behavior&rft.pages=151-188&rft.pub=Elsevier+Science&rft.date=1997&rft.isbn=978-0762301799&rft.aulast=Judge&rft.aufirst=Timothy+A.&rft.au=Locke%2C+Edwin+A.&rft.au=Durham%2C+Cathy+C.&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOverconfidence+effect" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-44"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-44">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/perfectly-confident/201801/overconfidence">"Overconfidence"</a>. <i>Psychology Today</i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2021-03-08</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Psychology+Today&rft.atitle=Overconfidence&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.psychologytoday.com%2Fblog%2Fperfectly-confident%2F201801%2Foverconfidence&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOverconfidence+effect" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-45"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-45">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFRimondi2019" class="citation web cs1">Rimondi, Christopher (2019-08-06). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://medium.com/@chris.rimondi/chernobyl-anatoly-dyatlov-and-engineering-arrogance-a3cc5272f1bf">"Chernobyl, Anatoly Dyatlov and Engineering Arrogance"</a>. <i>Medium</i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2021-03-08</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Medium&rft.atitle=Chernobyl%2C+Anatoly+Dyatlov+and+Engineering+Arrogance&rft.date=2019-08-06&rft.aulast=Rimondi&rft.aufirst=Christopher&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fmedium.com%2F%40chris.rimondi%2Fchernobyl-anatoly-dyatlov-and-engineering-arrogance-a3cc5272f1bf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOverconfidence+effect" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> </ol></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Further_reading">Further reading</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Overconfidence_effect&action=edit&section=21" title="Edit section: Further reading"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFLarrickBursonSoll2007" class="citation journal cs1">Larrick, Richard P.; Burson, Katherine A.; Soll, Jack B. (2007). "Social comparison and confidence: When thinking you're better than average predicts overconfidence (and when it does not)". <i>Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes</i>. <b>102</b> (1): 76–94. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.obhdp.2006.10.002">10.1016/j.obhdp.2006.10.002</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Organizational+Behavior+and+Human+Decision+Processes&rft.atitle=Social+comparison+and+confidence%3A+When+thinking+you%27re+better+than+average+predicts+overconfidence+%28and+when+it+does+not%29&rft.volume=102&rft.issue=1&rft.pages=76-94&rft.date=2007&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1016%2Fj.obhdp.2006.10.002&rft.aulast=Larrick&rft.aufirst=Richard+P.&rft.au=Burson%2C+Katherine+A.&rft.au=Soll%2C+Jack+B.&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOverconfidence+effect" class="Z3988"></span></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFBaron1994" class="citation book cs1">Baron, Johnathan (1994). <i>Thinking and Deciding</i>. Cambridge University Press. pp. 219–224. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0-521-43732-5" title="Special:BookSources/978-0-521-43732-5"><bdi>978-0-521-43732-5</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Thinking+and+Deciding&rft.pages=219-224&rft.pub=Cambridge+University+Press&rft.date=1994&rft.isbn=978-0-521-43732-5&rft.aulast=Baron&rft.aufirst=Johnathan&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOverconfidence+effect" class="Z3988"></span></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFGilovichGriffinKahneman2002" class="citation book cs1">Gilovich, Thomas; Griffin, Dale; Kahneman, Daniel (2002). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://books.google.com/books?id=FfTVDY-zrCoC"><i>Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment</i></a>. Cambridge University Press. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0-521-79679-8" title="Special:BookSources/978-0-521-79679-8"><bdi>978-0-521-79679-8</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Heuristics+and+Biases%3A+The+Psychology+of+Intuitive+Judgment&rft.pub=Cambridge+University+Press&rft.date=2002&rft.isbn=978-0-521-79679-8&rft.aulast=Gilovich&rft.aufirst=Thomas&rft.au=Griffin%2C+Dale&rft.au=Kahneman%2C+Daniel&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fbooks.google.com%2Fbooks%3Fid%3DFfTVDY-zrCoC&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOverconfidence+effect" class="Z3988"></span></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFSutherland2007" class="citation book cs1">Sutherland, Stuart (2007). <i>Irrationality</i>. Pinter & Martin. pp. 172–178. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-1-905177-07-3" title="Special:BookSources/978-1-905177-07-3"><bdi>978-1-905177-07-3</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Irrationality&rft.pages=172-178&rft.pub=Pinter+%26+Martin&rft.date=2007&rft.isbn=978-1-905177-07-3&rft.aulast=Sutherland&rft.aufirst=Stuart&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOverconfidence+effect" class="Z3988"></span></li></ul> <div class="navbox-styles"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1129693374">.mw-parser-output .hlist dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul{margin:0;padding:0}.mw-parser-output .hlist dd,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt,.mw-parser-output .hlist li{margin:0;display:inline}.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline 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.navbar{display:block;font-size:100%}.mw-parser-output .navbox-title .navbar{float:left;text-align:left;margin-right:0.5em}body.skin--responsive .mw-parser-output .navbox-image img{max-width:none!important}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .navbox{display:none!important}}</style></div><div role="navigation" class="navbox" aria-labelledby="Biases" style="padding:3px"><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible autocollapse navbox-inner" style="border-spacing:0;background:transparent;color:inherit"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239400231">.mw-parser-output .navbar{display:inline;font-size:88%;font-weight:normal}.mw-parser-output .navbar-collapse{float:left;text-align:left}.mw-parser-output .navbar-boxtext{word-spacing:0}.mw-parser-output .navbar ul{display:inline-block;white-space:nowrap;line-height:inherit}.mw-parser-output .navbar-brackets::before{margin-right:-0.125em;content:"[ "}.mw-parser-output .navbar-brackets::after{margin-left:-0.125em;content:" ]"}.mw-parser-output .navbar li{word-spacing:-0.125em}.mw-parser-output .navbar a>span,.mw-parser-output .navbar a>abbr{text-decoration:inherit}.mw-parser-output .navbar-mini abbr{font-variant:small-caps;border-bottom:none;text-decoration:none;cursor:inherit}.mw-parser-output .navbar-ct-full{font-size:114%;margin:0 7em}.mw-parser-output .navbar-ct-mini{font-size:114%;margin:0 4em}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .navbar li a abbr{color:var(--color-base)!important}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .navbar li a abbr{color:var(--color-base)!important}}@media print{.mw-parser-output .navbar{display:none!important}}</style><div class="navbar plainlinks hlist navbar-mini"><ul><li class="nv-view"><a href="/wiki/Template:Biases" title="Template:Biases"><abbr title="View this template">v</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-talk"><a href="/wiki/Template_talk:Biases" title="Template talk:Biases"><abbr title="Discuss this template">t</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-edit"><a href="/wiki/Special:EditPage/Template:Biases" title="Special:EditPage/Template:Biases"><abbr title="Edit this template">e</abbr></a></li></ul></div><div id="Biases" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Bias" title="Bias">Biases</a></div></th></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><div style="display: inline-block; line-height: 1.2em; padding: .1em 0;"><a href="/wiki/Cognitive_bias" title="Cognitive bias">Cognitive biases</a></div></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Acquiescence_bias" title="Acquiescence bias">Acquiescence</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ambiguity_effect" title="Ambiguity effect">Ambiguity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Affinity_bias" title="Affinity bias">Affinity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Anchoring_(cognitive_bias)" class="mw-redirect" title="Anchoring (cognitive bias)">Anchoring</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Attentional_bias" title="Attentional bias">Attentional</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Attribution_bias" title="Attribution bias">Attribution</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Actor%E2%80%93observer_asymmetry" title="Actor–observer asymmetry">Actor–observer</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fundamental_attribution_error" title="Fundamental attribution error">Correspondence</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Authority_bias" title="Authority bias">Authority</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Automation_bias" title="Automation bias">Automation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Availability_heuristic" title="Availability heuristic">Availability</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Mean_world_syndrome" title="Mean world syndrome">Mean world</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Belief_bias" title="Belief bias">Belief</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Bias_blind_spot" title="Bias blind spot">Blind spot</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Choice-supportive_bias" title="Choice-supportive bias">Choice-supportive</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Escalation_of_commitment" title="Escalation of commitment">Commitment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Confirmation_bias" title="Confirmation bias">Confirmation</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Selective_perception" title="Selective perception">Selective perception</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Compassion_fade" title="Compassion fade">Compassion fade</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Congruence_bias" title="Congruence bias">Congruence</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cultural_bias" title="Cultural bias">Cultural</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Declinism" title="Declinism">Declinism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Distinction_bias" title="Distinction bias">Distinction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect" title="Dunning–Kruger effect">Dunning–Kruger</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Egocentric_bias" title="Egocentric bias">Egocentric</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Curse_of_knowledge" title="Curse of knowledge">Curse of knowledge</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Emotional_bias" title="Emotional bias">Emotional</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extrinsic_incentives_bias" title="Extrinsic incentives bias">Extrinsic incentives</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fading_affect_bias" title="Fading affect bias">Fading affect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Framing_effect_(psychology)" title="Framing effect (psychology)">Framing</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Frequency_illusion" title="Frequency illusion">Frequency</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Frog_pond_effect" title="Frog pond effect">Frog pond effect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Halo_effect" title="Halo effect">Halo effect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hindsight_bias" title="Hindsight bias">Hindsight</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Horn_effect" title="Horn effect">Horn effect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hostile_attribution_bias" title="Hostile attribution bias">Hostile attribution</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Impact_bias" title="Impact bias">Impact</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Implicit_stereotype" title="Implicit stereotype">Implicit</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/In-group_favoritism" title="In-group favoritism">In-group</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Intentionality_bias" title="Intentionality bias">Intentionality</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Illusion_of_transparency" title="Illusion of transparency">Illusion of transparency</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mean_world_syndrome" title="Mean world syndrome">Mean world syndrome</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mere-exposure_effect" title="Mere-exposure effect">Mere-exposure effect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Narrative_bias" title="Narrative bias">Narrative</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Negativity_bias" title="Negativity bias">Negativity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Normalcy_bias" title="Normalcy bias">Normalcy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Omission_bias" title="Omission bias">Omission</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Optimism_bias" title="Optimism bias">Optimism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Out-group_homogeneity" title="Out-group homogeneity">Out-group homogeneity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Outcome_bias" title="Outcome bias">Outcome</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Overton_window" title="Overton window">Overton window</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Precision_bias" title="Precision bias">Precision</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Present_bias" title="Present bias">Present</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Pro-innovation_bias" title="Pro-innovation bias">Pro-innovation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Proximity_bias" title="Proximity bias">Proximity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Response_bias" title="Response bias">Response</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Restraint_bias" title="Restraint bias">Restraint</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Self-serving_bias" title="Self-serving bias">Self-serving</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Social_comparison_bias" title="Social comparison bias">Social comparison</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Social_influence_bias" title="Social influence bias">Social influence bias</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Spotlight_effect" title="Spotlight effect">Spotlight</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Status_quo_bias" title="Status quo bias">Status quo</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Attribute_substitution" title="Attribute substitution">Substitution</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Time-saving_bias" title="Time-saving bias">Time-saving</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Trait_ascription_bias" title="Trait ascription bias">Trait ascription</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Turkey_illusion" title="Turkey illusion">Turkey illusion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Von_Restorff_effect" title="Von Restorff effect">von Restorff effect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Zero-risk_bias" title="Zero-risk bias">Zero-risk</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cognitive_bias_in_animals" title="Cognitive bias in animals">In animals</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Bias_(statistics)" title="Bias (statistics)">Statistical biases</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Bias_of_an_estimator" title="Bias of an estimator">Estimator</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Forecast_bias" title="Forecast bias">Forecast</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Healthy_user_bias" title="Healthy user bias">Healthy user</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Information_bias_(epidemiology)" title="Information bias (epidemiology)">Information</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Information_bias_(psychology)" title="Information bias (psychology)">Psychological</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Lead_time_bias" title="Lead time bias">Lead time</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Length_time_bias" title="Length time bias">Length time</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Participation_bias" title="Participation bias">Non-response</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Observer_bias" title="Observer bias">Observer</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Omitted-variable_bias" title="Omitted-variable bias">Omitted-variable</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Participation_bias" title="Participation bias">Participation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Recall_bias" title="Recall bias">Recall</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sampling_bias" title="Sampling bias">Sampling</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Selection_bias" title="Selection bias">Selection</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Self-selection_bias" title="Self-selection bias">Self-selection</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Social-desirability_bias" title="Social-desirability bias">Social desirability</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Spectrum_bias" title="Spectrum bias">Spectrum</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Survivorship_bias" title="Survivorship bias">Survivorship</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Systematic_error" class="mw-redirect" title="Systematic error">Systematic error</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Systemic_bias" title="Systemic bias">Systemic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Verification_bias" title="Verification bias">Verification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Wet_bias" title="Wet bias">Wet</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Other biases</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Academic_bias" title="Academic bias">Academic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Basking_in_reflected_glory" title="Basking in reflected glory">Basking in reflected glory</a></li> <li><i><a href="/wiki/D%C3%A9formation_professionnelle" title="Déformation professionnelle">Déformation professionnelle</a></i></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Funding_bias" title="Funding bias">Funding</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/FUTON_bias" class="mw-redirect" title="FUTON bias">FUTON</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Inductive_bias" title="Inductive bias">Inductive</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Infrastructure_bias" title="Infrastructure bias">Infrastructure</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Inherent_bias" title="Inherent bias">Inherent</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Bias_in_education" class="mw-redirect" title="Bias in education">In education</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Liking_gap" title="Liking gap">Liking gap</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_bias" title="Media bias">Media</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/False_balance" title="False balance">False balance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/United_States_news_media_and_the_Vietnam_War" title="United States news media and the Vietnam War">Vietnam War</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_of_Norway" class="mw-redirect" title="Media of Norway">Norway</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_bias_in_South_Asia" title="Media bias in South Asia">South Asia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_of_Sweden" class="mw-redirect" title="Media of Sweden">Sweden</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_bias_in_the_United_States" title="Media bias in the United States">United States</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_coverage_of_the_Arab%E2%80%93Israeli_conflict" class="mw-redirect" title="Media coverage of the Arab–Israeli conflict">Arab–Israeli conflict</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_portrayal_of_the_Ukrainian_crisis" class="mw-redirect" title="Media portrayal of the Ukrainian crisis">Ukraine</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Net_bias" title="Net bias">Net</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Political_bias" title="Political bias">Political bias</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Publication_bias" title="Publication bias">Publication</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Reporting_bias" title="Reporting bias">Reporting</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/White_hat_bias" title="White hat bias">White hat</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Bias reduction</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Cognitive_bias_mitigation" title="Cognitive bias 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