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Tools</a></li> <li class="page_item page-item-62"><a href="https://steveblank.com/secret-history/">Secret History</a></li> <li class="page_item page-item-68"><a href="https://steveblank.com/books-for-startups/">Books for Startups</a></li> <li class="page_item page-item-11025"><a href="https://steveblank.com/slides/">Slides/Videos</a></li> <li class="page_item page-item-25609"><a href="https://steveblank.com/raising-money/">Raising Money</a></li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div>  <div class="narrowcolumnwrapper"><div class="narrowcolumn"> <div id="content" class="content"> <div class="post-28015 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-corporate-govt-innovation category-gordian-knot-center-for-national-security-innovation" id="post-28015"> <h2><a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/30/the-gordian-knot-center-for-national-security-innovation-at-stanford/" rel="bookmark">The Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation at Stanford</a></h2> <div class="postinfo"> Posted on <span class="postdate">November 30, 2021</span> by steve blank </div> <div class="entry"> <p style="text-align: center;"><em>penitus cogitare, cito agere – </em><em>think deeply, act quickly</em></p> <p>75 years ago, the <a href="https://steveblank.com/2009/08/03/the-secret-history-of-silicon-valley-part-vii-we-fought-a-war-you-never-heard-of/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Office of Naval Research (ONR) helped kickstart innovation in Silicon Valley</a> with a series of grants to <a href="https://steveblank.com/2009/04/27/the-secret-history-of-silicon-valley-part-vi-the-secret-life-of-fred-terman-and-stanford/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fred Terman</a>, Dean of Stanford’s Engineering school. Terman used the money to set up the Stanford Electronics Research Lab. He staffed it with his lab managers who built the first electronic warfare and electronic intelligence systems in WWII. This lab pushed the envelope of basic and <a href="https://steveblank.com/2009/08/17/stanford-crosses-the-rubicon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">applied research in microwave devices and electronics</a> and within a few short years made Stanford a leader in these fields. The lab became ground zero for the wave of Stanford’s <a href="https://steveblank.com/2009/08/06/the-secret-history-of-silicon-valley-part-viii-the-rise-of-entreprenuership/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entrepreneurship and innovation in the 1950’s and 60’s</a> and <a href="https://steveblank.com/secret-history/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">helped form what would later be called Silicon Valley</a>.</p> <p>75 years later, ONR just laid down a bet again, one we believe will be equally transformative. They’re the first sponsors of the new <a href="https://gordianknot.stanford.edu" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation</em></a> at Stanford that <a href="https://www.defense.gov/Our-Story/Biographies/Biography/Article/1306061/dr-joseph-h-felter/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Joe Felter</a>, <a href="https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/zh-ch/people/raj-shah" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Raj Shah</a>, and I have started.<a href="https://gordianknot.stanford.edu"><img data-recalc-dims="1" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27781" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/gkc-logo/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?fit=435%2C79&ssl=1" data-orig-size="435,79" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="GKC Logo" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?fit=300%2C54&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?fit=435%2C79&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-27781 size-full" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?resize=435%2C79&ssl=1" alt="" width="435" height="79" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?w=435&ssl=1 435w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?resize=300%2C54&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?resize=150%2C27&ssl=1 150w" sizes="(max-width: 435px) 100vw, 435px" /></a></p> <h3><strong><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/gordian-knot-photo.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28113" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/gordian-knot-photo/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/gordian-knot-photo.jpg?fit=2678%2C1030&ssl=1" data-orig-size="2678,1030" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="gordian knot photo" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/gordian-knot-photo.jpg?fit=300%2C115&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/gordian-knot-photo.jpg?fit=468%2C180&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-28113" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/gordian-knot-photo.jpg?resize=468%2C180&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="180" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/gordian-knot-photo.jpg?resize=1024%2C394&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/gordian-knot-photo.jpg?resize=300%2C115&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/gordian-knot-photo.jpg?resize=150%2C58&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/gordian-knot-photo.jpg?resize=768%2C295&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/gordian-knot-photo.jpg?resize=1536%2C591&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/gordian-knot-photo.jpg?resize=2048%2C788&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/gordian-knot-photo.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/gordian-knot-photo.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="(max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></strong></h3> <hr /> <h3><strong>Gordian What?</strong></h3> <p>A <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordian_Knot" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gordian Knot</a> is a metaphor for an intractable problem. Today, the United States is facing several seemingly intractable national security problems simultaneously.</p> <p>We intend to help solve them in Stanford’s <a href="https://gordianknot.stanford.edu" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation</em></a>. Our motto of <em>penitus cogitare, cito agere</em>, think deeply, act quickly, embraces our unique intersection of deep problem understanding, combined with rapid solutions. The Center combines six unique strengths of Stanford and its location in Silicon Valley.</p> <ol> <li>The insights and expertise of Stanford international and national security policy leaders</li> <li>The technology insights and expertise of Stanford Engineering</li> <li>Exceptional students willing to help the country win the Great Power Competition</li> <li>Silicon Valley’s deep technology ecosystem</li> <li>Our experience in rapid problem understanding, rapid iteration and deployment of solutions with speed and urgency</li> <li>Access to risk capital at scale</li> </ol> <p>Our focus will match our motto. We’re going to coordinate resources at Stanford and peer universities, and across Silicon Valley’s innovation ecosystem to:</p> <ul> <li>Scale national security innovation education</li> <li>Train national security innovators</li> <li>Offer insight, integration, and policy outreach</li> <li>Provide a continual output of minimal viable products that can act as catalysts for solutions to the toughest problems</li> </ul> <h3><strong><a href="https://gordianknot.stanford.edu/national-security-innovation-education" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img data-recalc-dims="1" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28112" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/gkc-lines-of-effot/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-Lines-of-effot.jpg?fit=2306%2C766&ssl=1" data-orig-size="2306,766" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="GKC Lines of effot" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-Lines-of-effot.jpg?fit=300%2C100&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-Lines-of-effot.jpg?fit=468%2C155&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-28112" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-Lines-of-effot.jpg?resize=468%2C155&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="155" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-Lines-of-effot.jpg?w=2306&ssl=1 2306w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-Lines-of-effot.jpg?resize=300%2C100&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-Lines-of-effot.jpg?resize=1024%2C340&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-Lines-of-effot.jpg?resize=150%2C50&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-Lines-of-effot.jpg?resize=768%2C255&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-Lines-of-effot.jpg?resize=1536%2C510&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-Lines-of-effot.jpg?resize=2048%2C680&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-Lines-of-effot.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-Lines-of-effot.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="(max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></strong></h3> <h3><strong>Why Now? Why Us?<br /> </strong></h3> <p>Over the last decade we’ve created a series of classes in entrepreneurship, rapid innovation, and national security: <a href="https://leanlaunchpad.stanford.edu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lean LaunchPad</a>; <a href="https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/i-corps/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">National Science Foundation I-Corps</a>; <a href="https://h4d.stanford.edu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hacking for Defense</a>; <a href="http://web.stanford.edu/class/msande298/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hacking for Diplomacy</a>; <a href="https://timw.sites.stanford.edu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Technology, Innovation and Modern War</a> last year; and this year <a href="https://tigpc21.sites.stanford.edu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition</a>. These classes have been <a href="https://www.commonmission.us/national-security-entrepreneurship" target="_blank" rel="noopener">widely adopted</a>, across the U.S. and globally.</p> <p>Simultaneously, each of us was actively engaged in helping different branches of the government understand, react, and deliver solutions in a rapidly changing and challenging environment. It’s become clear to us that for the first time in three decades, the U.S. is now engaged in a Great Power Competition. And we’re behind. Our national power (our influence and footprint on the world stage) is being challenged and effectively negated by autocratic regimes like China and Russia.</p> <p><a href="https://gordianknot.stanford.edu/people-0" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28116" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/gkc-faculty/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-faculty.jpg?fit=1846%2C512&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1846,512" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="GKC faculty" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-faculty.jpg?fit=300%2C83&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-faculty.jpg?fit=468%2C130&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-28116" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-faculty.jpg?resize=468%2C130&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="130" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-faculty.jpg?w=1846&ssl=1 1846w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-faculty.jpg?resize=300%2C83&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-faculty.jpg?resize=1024%2C284&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-faculty.jpg?resize=150%2C42&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-faculty.jpg?resize=768%2C213&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-faculty.jpg?resize=1536%2C426&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-faculty.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GKC-faculty.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <h3><strong>GKC joins a select group of national security think tanks<br /> </strong></h3> <p>At Stanford, the Gordian Knot Center will sit in the <a href="https://fsi.stanford.edu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Freeman Spogli Institute</a> for International Studies run by <a href="https://michaelmcfaul.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mike McFaul</a>, ex ambassador to Russia. And Mike has graciously agreed to be our Principal Investigator along with <a href="https://profiles.stanford.edu/riitta-katila" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Riitta Katila</a> in the Management Science and Engineering Department (MS&E) in the Engineering School. MS&E is where <a href="https://steveblank.com/secret-history/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disruptive technology meets national security</a>, and has a long history of brilliant contributions from <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Perry" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bill Perry</a>, <a href="https://msande.stanford.edu/person/siegfried-hecker" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sig Hecker</a> and <a href="https://msande.stanford.edu/person/elisabeth-pate-cornell" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Elisabeth Pate-Cornell</a> and others. (Stanford’s other policy institute is the <a href="https://www.hoover.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hoover Institution</a>, run by <a href="https://www.hoover.org/profiles/condoleezza-rice" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Condoleezza Rice</a>, ex secretary of state<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Condoleezza_Rice">)</a>. All are world-class leaders in understanding international problems, policies, and institutions. Other U.S. foreign affairs and national security think tanks include:</p> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.csis.org/">Center for Strategic and International Studies</a> (CSIS)</li> <li><a href="https://www.rand.org/">RAND Corporation</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/">Brookings Institution</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.belfercenter.org/">Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/">Atlantic Council</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/">Center for a New American Security</a> (CNAS)</li> <li><a href="https://www.cfr.org/">Council on Foreign Relations</a> (CFR)</li> <li><a href="https://www.heritage.org/">Heritage Foundation</a></li> </ul> <p>We intend to focus the new Center on solving problems across the spectrum of activities that create and sustain national power. National power is the combination of a country’s diplomacy (soft power and alliances), information, military and economic strength as well as its finance, intelligence, and law enforcement – or DIME-FIL. <em>Our projects will be those at the intersection of DIME-FIL with the onslaught of commercial technologies</em> (AI, machine learning, autonomy, biotech, cyber, semiconductors, commercial access to space, et al.). And we’re going to hit the ground running by moving our two national security classes — <a href="https://h4d.stanford.edu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hacking for Defense</a>, and <a href="https://tigpc21.sites.stanford.edu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Technology Innovation and Great Power Competition</a> (which this year is now a required course in the International Policy program) — into the Center.</p> <p>We hope our unique charter, “<em>think deeply, act quickly”</em> can complement the extraordinary work these other institutions provide.</p> <h3><strong>The Office of Naval Research (ONR)</strong></h3> <p><a href="https://www.onr.navy.mil/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Office of Naval Research</a> (ONR) has been planning, fostering, and encouraging scientific research—and reimagining naval power—since 1946. The grants it made to Stanford that year were the first to any university.</p> <p>Today, the Navy and the <a href="https://www.marines.mil/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">U.S. Marine Corps</a> is looking to find ways to accelerate technology development and delivery to our naval forces. There is broad consensus that the current pace of technology development and adoption is unsatisfactory, and that without significant reform, we will lose the competition with China in the South China Sea for maritime superiority.</p> <p><a href="https://www.onr.navy.mil/en/About-ONR/Leadership/Chief-Naval-Research" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rear Admiral Selby</a>, Chief of Naval Research, has recognized that it’s no longer “business as usual.” That ONR delivering sustaining innovations for the existing fleet and marine forces is no longer good enough to deter war or keep us in the fight. And that ONR once again needs to lead with disruptive technologies, new operational concepts, new types of program management and mindsets. He’s on a mission to provide the Navy and <a href="https://www.marines.mil/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">U.S. Marine C</a><a href="http://marines.mil" target="_blank" rel="noopener">orps</a> with just that. When we approached him about the idea of the Gordian Knot Center he reminded us, that not only did ONR sponsor Stanford in 1946, they’ve been sponsoring our <a href="https://h4d.stanford.edu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hacking for Defense</a> class since 2016! Now they’ve become <a href="https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/Press-Releases/display-pressreleases/Article/2855003/onr-sponsors-new-academic-center-for-national-security-innovation/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our charter sponsor</a> for the Gordian Knot Center.</p> <p>We hope to earn it – for him, ONR, and the country.</p> <p>Steve, Joe and Raj</p> <h3><strong>Lessons Learned</strong></h3> <blockquote><p>The Center combines six unique strengths of Stanford and its location in Silicon Valley</p> <ul> <li>The insights and expertise of Stanford international and national security policy leaders</li> <li>The technology insights and expertise of Stanford Engineering</li> <li>Exceptional students willing to help the country win the Great Power Competition</li> <li>Silicon Valley’s deep technology ecosystem</li> <li>Our experience in rapid problem understanding, rapid iteration and deployment of solutions with speed and urgency</li> <li>Access to risk capital at scale</li> </ul> <p>Our focus will match our motto. We’re going to coordinate resources at Stanford and peer universities and across Silicon Valley’s innovation ecosystem to:</p> <ul> <li>Scale national security innovation education</li> <li>Train national security innovators</li> <li>Offer insight, integration, and policy outreach</li> <li>Provide a continual output of minimal viable products that can act as catalysts for solutions to the toughest problems</li> </ul> </blockquote> <iframe loading="lazy" width="100%" height="91" scrolling="no" frameborder="no" src="https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F1191846811&width=false&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&visual=false&show_comments=false&color=false&show_user=false&show_reposts=false"></iframe> <div class="sharedaddy sd-sharing-enabled"><div class="robots-nocontent sd-block sd-social sd-social-official sd-sharing"><h3 class="sd-title">Share this:</h3><div class="sd-content"><ul><li class="share-print"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="" class="share-print sd-button" href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/30/the-gordian-knot-center-for-national-security-innovation-at-stanford/" target="_blank" title="Click to print" ><span>Print</span></a></li><li class="share-email"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="" class="share-email sd-button" href="mailto:?subject=%5BShared%20Post%5D%20The%20Gordian%20Knot%20Center%20for%20National%20Security%20Innovation%20at%20Stanford&body=https%3A%2F%2Fsteveblank.com%2F2021%2F11%2F30%2Fthe-gordian-knot-center-for-national-security-innovation-at-stanford%2F&share=email" target="_blank" title="Click to email a link to a friend" data-email-share-error-title="Do you have email set up?" data-email-share-error-text="If you're having problems sharing via email, you might not have email set up for your browser. 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this:</h3><div class='likes-widget-placeholder post-likes-widget-placeholder' style='height: 55px;'><span class='button'><span>Like</span></span> <span class="loading">Loading...</span></div><span class='sd-text-color'></span><a class='sd-link-color'></a></div> <p class="postinfo"> Filed under: <a href="https://steveblank.com/category/corporate-govt-innovation/" rel="category tag">Corporate/Gov't Innovation</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/category/gordian-knot-center-for-national-security-innovation/" rel="category tag">Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation</a> | <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/30/the-gordian-knot-center-for-national-security-innovation-at-stanford/#comments">2 Comments »</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="post-28073 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-corporate-govt-innovation category-technology-innovation-and-modern-war" id="post-28073"> <h2><a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/26/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-8-cyber/" rel="bookmark">Technology, Innovation, and Great Power Competition – Class 8 – Cyber</a></h2> <div class="postinfo"> Posted on <span class="postdate">November 26, 2021</span> by steve blank </div> <div class="entry"> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27853" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/modern-war-institute/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?fit=450%2C92&ssl=1" data-orig-size="450,92" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="modern war institute" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?fit=300%2C61&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?fit=450%2C92&ssl=1" class="alignleft size-thumbnail wp-image-27853" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?resize=150%2C31&ssl=1" alt="" width="150" height="31" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?resize=150%2C31&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?resize=300%2C61&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?w=450&ssl=1 450w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px" /></a>This article first appeared in West Point’s <a href="https://mwi.usma.edu/">Modern War Institute.</a></p> <hr /> <p>We just completed the eighth week of our new national security class at Stanford – <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/09/21/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition/">Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition</a>. <a href="https://www.defense.gov/Our-Story/Biographies/Biography/Article/1306061/dr-joseph-h-felter/">Joe Felter</a>, <a href="https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/zh-ch/people/raj-shah">Raj Shah</a> and I designed the class to cover how technology will shape the character and employment of <em>all instruments</em> of national power.</p> <p>In <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/13/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-1/">class 1</a>, we learned that national power is the sum of all the resources available to a state to pursue its national objectives and interests. This power is wielded through a combination of a country’s diplomacy, information, its military capabilities, economic strength, finance, intelligence, and law enforcement. These instruments of national power employed in a “whole of government approach” to advance a state’s interests are known by the acronym <a href="https://nwc.ndu.edu/Portals/71/Documents/Publications/NWC%20Primer%202020%20Final.pdf">DIME</a><u>-FIL.</u></p> <p><a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/19/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-2/">Class 2</a> focused on China, the U.S.’s primary great power competitor. China is using all elements of its national power, e.g. information/ intelligence, its military might and economic strength as well as exploiting Western finance and technology. China’s goal is to challenge and overturn the U.S.-led liberal international order and replace it with its own <a href="https://www.hoover.org/press-releases/hoover-institution-releases-essay-former-chinese-communist-party-insider-about">neo-totalitarian model</a><u> where China emerges as the dominant regional and global power</u>.</p> <p><a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/26/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-3/">The third class</a> focused on Russia, which since 2014 has asserted itself as a competing great power. We learned how Russia pursues security and economic interests in parallel with its ideological aims.</p> <p><a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/02/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-4/">The fourth</a> class shifted our focus to the impact commercial technologies have on the instruments of national power (DIME-FIL). The first technology we examined was <em>semiconductors, </em>and the U.S. dependence on <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-01-25/the-world-is-dangerously-dependent-on-taiwan-for-semiconductors">TSMC</a> in Taiwan, for its most advanced logic chips. This is problematic as China claims Taiwan is a province of China.</p> <p>In <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/09/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-5-ai-and-machine-learning/">the fifth class</a> we examined the impact that AI and Machine Learning will continue to have on the capabilities and employment of DIME-FIL. We heard from the <a href="https://www.ai.mil/index.html">Joint Artificial Intelligence Center</a> (JAIC), the focal point of the DOD AI strategy; and from the <a href="https://www.diu.mil/">Defense Innovation Unit</a> (DIU) – a DoD organization that contracts with commercial companies to solve national security problems.</p> <p>In <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/16/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-6-unmanned-systems-and-autonomy/">class six</a> we discussed unmanned systems and autonomy and how the advent of these weapons will change operational concepts and the face of war.</p> <p>Class <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/23/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-7-space/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">seven</a> looked at the Second Space Age, how our military and civilian economy rely on assets in space, and how space is now a contested environment, with China and Russia capable of disabling/destroying our satellites</p> <p>Today’s class: <em>Cyber</em></p> <p>Catch up with the class by reading our <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/09/21/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition/">intro to the class</a>, and summaries of <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/13/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-1/">Classes 1</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/19/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-2/">2</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/26/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-3/">3</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/02/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-4/">4</a><u>,</u> <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/09/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-5-ai-and-machine-learning/">5</a> <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/16/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-6-unmanned-systems-and-autonomy/">6</a> and <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/23/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-7-space/">7</a></p> <hr /> <p><strong><em><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-8-Cover-Slide.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28075" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/lecture-8-cover-slide/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-8-Cover-Slide.jpg?fit=1440%2C810&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1440,810" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Lecture 8 Cover Slide" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-8-Cover-Slide.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-8-Cover-Slide.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-28075" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-8-Cover-Slide.jpg?resize=468%2C263&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="263" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-8-Cover-Slide.jpg?resize=1024%2C576&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-8-Cover-Slide.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-8-Cover-Slide.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-8-Cover-Slide.jpg?resize=768%2C432&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-8-Cover-Slide.jpg?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-8-Cover-Slide.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a> </em></strong></p> <h3><strong>Required readings</strong></h3> <p><strong>Case Study for Class</strong></p> <ul> <li>Suraj Srinivasan, et al., “<a href="https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=53509">Data Breach at Equifax</a>” <em>Harvard Business School</em>, Apr. 25, 2019.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Competition in Cyber Space</strong></p> <ul> <li>Michael Warner, “<a href="https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/warner_webready.pdf">US Cyber Command’s First Decade”</a> <em>Hoover</em></li> <li>Paul M. Nakasone & Michael Sulmeyer, “<a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-08-25/cybersecurity">How to Compete in Cyberspace: Cyber Command’s New Approach</a>” <em>Foreign Affairs</em>, Aug. 25, 2020.</li> <li>Mark Grzegorzewski & Christopher Marsh, “<a href="https://mwi.usma.edu/incorporating-the-cyberspace-domain-how-russia-and-china-exploit-asymmetric-advantages-in-great-power-competition/">Incorporating the Cyberspace Domain: How Russia and China Exploit Asymmetric Advantages in Great Power Competition</a>” <em>Modern War Institute</em>, Mar. 15, 2021.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Cyber Attacks / Cyber Warfare</strong></p> <ul> <li>Kim Zetter, “<a href="https://www.wired.com/2014/11/countdown-to-zero-day-stuxnet/">An Unprecedented Look at Stuxnet, the World’s First Digital Weapon</a>” <em>WIRED</em>, Nov. 03, 2014.</li> <li>Andy Greenberg, “<a href="https://www.wired.com/story/russian-hackers-attack-ukraine/">How an Entire Nation Became Russia’s Test Lab for Cyberwar</a>” <em>WIRED</em>, June 20, 2017.</li> </ul> <p><strong>IP & Protected Personal Information Theft</strong></p> <ul> <li>Garrett M. Graff, “<a href="https://www.wired.com/story/china-equifax-anthem-marriott-opm-hacks-data/">China’s Hacking Spree Will Have a Decades-Long Fallout</a>” <em>WIRED</em>, Feb. 11, 2020.</li> <li><em>“</em><a href="https://www.nbr.org/wp-content/uploads/pdfs/publications/IP_Commission_Report_Update.pdf">Update to the IP Commission Report: The Theft of American Intellectual Property: Reassessments of the Challenge and United States Policy</a>” <em>The Commission on the Theft of American Intellectual Property</em>, 2017.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Political Interference </strong></p> <ul> <li>Andy Greenberg, “<a href="https://www.wired.com/story/russia-election-hacking-playbook/">Everything We Know About Russia’s Election-Hacking Playbook</a>” <em>WIRED</em>, June 09, 2017.</li> <li>Gregory Winger, “<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/chinas-disinformation-campaign-in-the-philippines/">China’s Disinformation Campaign in the Philippines</a>” <em>The Diplomat</em>, Oct. 06, 2020.</li> </ul> <h3><strong>Reading Assignment Questions</strong></h3> <p><em>Pick one of the below questions and answer in approximately 100 words, based on the required readings. Please note that this assignment will be graded and count towards course participation. </em></p> <ol> <li>What is the U.S. Cyber Command’s doctrinal approach to competing in the cyber domain? Do you agree with the current doctrine? Why or why not? Would you do anything differently?</li> <li>Of the different types of cyber threats presented in this week’s readings (cyberattacks, PPI and IP theft, and political interference), which do you think presents the greatest threat to U.S. interests and why? What should the U.S do to address that threat? Be specific if your recommendations are for the government or private sector.</li> </ol> <h3><strong>Class 8 – Guest</strong> <strong>Speaker</strong></h3> <p><a href="https://www.belfercenter.org/person/michael-sulmeyer">Dr. Michael Sulmeyer</a> is a Senior Adviser, <a href="https://www.cybercom.mil/">USCYBERCOM</a> (Cyber Command). He was the former Senior Director for Cyber at the National Security Council. The former Cyber Project Director at the Harvard Kennedy School-Belfer Center. He was a past Director, Plans and Operations, for Cyber Policy in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Previously, he worked on arms control and the maintenance of strategic stability between the United States, Russia, and China.</p> <p><a href="https://www.cybercom.mil/About/History/">Cyber Command formed in 2010</a> and is one of the eleven unified combatant commands of the United States Department of Defense. It’s commanded by a four-star general, <a href="https://www.defense.gov/About/Biographies/Biography/Article/1531067/general-paul-m-nakasone/">General Paul Nakasone</a> who is also the director of the <a href="https://www.nsa.gov/">National Security Agency</a> and chief of the <a href="https://www.nsa.gov/About/Central-Security-Service/">Central Security Service</a>. It has three main missions: (1) defending the DoD information systems, (2) supporting joint force commanders with cyberspace operations, and (3) defending the nation from significant cyberattacks.</p> <p>Dr. Sulmeyer has written, “<a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2018-03-22/how-us-can-play-cyber-offense">A focus on cyber-deterrence is understandable but misplaced</a>. Deterrence aims to change the calculations of adversaries by persuading them that the risks of an attack outweigh the rewards or that they will be denied the benefits they seek. But in seeking merely to deter enemies, the United States finds itself constantly on the back foot. Instead, the United States should be pursuing a more active cyberpolicy, one aimed not at deterring enemies but at disrupting their capabilities. In cyberwarfare, Washington should recognize that the best defense is a good offense.</p> <p>In countries where technology companies are willing to cooperate with the U.S. government (or with requests from their own government), a phone call to the right cloud provider or Internet service provider (ISP) could result in getting bad actors kicked off the Internet.</p> <p>U.S. hackers could pursue a campaign of erasing computers at scale, disabling accounts and credentials used by hackers to attack, and cutting off access to services so it is harder to compromise innocent systems to conduct their attacks.”</p> <p>Our national defense cyber policy has now moved to “persistent engagement.” <em>Defending forward as close as possible to the origin of adversary activity extends our reach to expose adversaries’ weaknesses, learn their intentions and capabilities, and counter attacks close to their origins. Continuous engagement imposes tactical friction and strategic costs on our adversaries, compelling them to shift resources to defense and reduce attacks. We will pursue attackers across networks and systems to render most malicious cyber and cyber-enabled activity inconsequential while achieving greater freedom of maneuver to counter and contest dangerous adversary activity before it impairs our national power</em>.</p> <h3><strong>Lecture 8</strong></h3> <iframe src='https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/250694008' width='468' height='384' sandbox="allow-popups allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-presentation" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen></iframe> <p>If you can’t see the lecture 8 slides <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/lecture-8-technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-cyber">click here.</a></p> <h3><strong>Lessons Learned</strong></h3> <blockquote> <ul> <li>Cyber Command’s role is to: <ul> <li>defend the DoD information systems</li> <li>support joint force commanders with cyberspace operations, and</li> <li>defend the nation from significant cyberattacks</li> </ul> </li> <li>Cyber Command has evolved from a reactive, defensive posture to a proactive posture called “persistent engagement”</li> </ul> </blockquote> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27781" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/gkc-logo/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?fit=435%2C79&ssl=1" data-orig-size="435,79" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="GKC Logo" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?fit=300%2C54&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?fit=435%2C79&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-27781" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?resize=300%2C54&ssl=1" alt="" width="300" height="54" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?resize=300%2C54&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?resize=150%2C27&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?w=435&ssl=1 435w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></a><br /> <iframe loading="lazy" width="100%" height="91" scrolling="no" frameborder="no" src="https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F1190811130&width=false&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&visual=false&show_comments=false&color=false&show_user=false&show_reposts=false"></iframe></p> <div class="sharedaddy sd-sharing-enabled"><div class="robots-nocontent sd-block sd-social sd-social-official sd-sharing"><h3 class="sd-title">Share this:</h3><div class="sd-content"><ul><li class="share-print"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="" class="share-print sd-button" href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/26/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-8-cyber/" target="_blank" title="Click to print" ><span>Print</span></a></li><li class="share-email"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="" class="share-email sd-button" href="mailto:?subject=%5BShared%20Post%5D%20Technology%2C%20Innovation%2C%20and%20Great%20Power%20Competition%20%E2%80%93%20Class%208%20%E2%80%93%C2%A0Cyber&body=https%3A%2F%2Fsteveblank.com%2F2021%2F11%2F26%2Ftechnology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-8-cyber%2F&share=email" target="_blank" title="Click to email a link to a friend" data-email-share-error-title="Do you have email set up?" data-email-share-error-text="If you're having problems sharing via email, you might not have email set up for your browser. 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data-title='Like or Reblog'><h3 class="sd-title">Like this:</h3><div class='likes-widget-placeholder post-likes-widget-placeholder' style='height: 55px;'><span class='button'><span>Like</span></span> <span class="loading">Loading...</span></div><span class='sd-text-color'></span><a class='sd-link-color'></a></div> <p class="postinfo"> Filed under: <a href="https://steveblank.com/category/corporate-govt-innovation/" rel="category tag">Corporate/Gov't Innovation</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/category/technology-innovation-and-modern-war/" rel="category tag">Technology Innovation and Great Power Competition</a> | <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/26/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-8-cyber/#respond">Leave a comment »</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="post-28062 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-technology-innovation-and-modern-war" id="post-28062"> <h2><a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/23/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-7-space/" rel="bookmark">Technology, Innovation, and Great Power Competition – Class 7 – Space</a></h2> <div class="postinfo"> Posted on <span class="postdate">November 23, 2021</span> by steve blank </div> <div class="entry"> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27853" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/modern-war-institute/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?fit=450%2C92&ssl=1" data-orig-size="450,92" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="modern war institute" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?fit=300%2C61&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?fit=450%2C92&ssl=1" class="alignleft size-thumbnail wp-image-27853" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?resize=150%2C31&ssl=1" alt="" width="150" height="31" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?resize=150%2C31&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?resize=300%2C61&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?w=450&ssl=1 450w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px" /></a>This article first appeared in West Point’s <a href="https://mwi.usma.edu/">Modern War Institute.</a></p> <hr /> <p>We just completed the seventh week of our new national security class at Stanford – <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/09/21/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition/">Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition</a>. <a href="https://www.defense.gov/Our-Story/Biographies/Biography/Article/1306061/dr-joseph-h-felter/">Joe Felter</a>, <a href="https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/zh-ch/people/raj-shah">Raj Shah</a> and I designed the class to cover how technology will shape the character and employment of all instruments of national power.</p> <p>In <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/13/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-1/">class 1</a>, we learned that national power is the sum of all the resources available to a state to pursue its national objectives and interests. This power is wielded through a combination of a country’s diplomacy, information, its military capabilities, economic strength, finance, intelligence, and law enforcement. These instruments of national power employed in a “whole of government approach” to advance a state’s interests are known by the acronym <a href="https://nwc.ndu.edu/Portals/71/Documents/Publications/NWC%20Primer%202020%20Final.pdf">DIME</a><u>-FIL.</u></p> <p><a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/19/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-2/">Class 2</a> focused on China, the U.S.’s primary great power competitor. China is using all elements of its national power, e.g. information/ intelligence, its military might and economic strength as well as exploiting Western finance and technology. China’s goal is to challenge and overturn the U.S.-led liberal international order and replace it with its own <a href="https://www.hoover.org/press-releases/hoover-institution-releases-essay-former-chinese-communist-party-insider-about">neo-totalitarian model</a><u> where China emerges as the dominant regional and global power</u>.</p> <p><a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/26/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-3/">The third class</a> focused on Russia, which since 2014 has asserted itself as a competing great power. We learned how Russia pursues security and economic interests in parallel with its ideological aims.</p> <p><a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/02/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-4/">The fourth</a> class shifted our focus to the impact commercial technologies have on the instruments of national power (DIME-FIL). The first technology we examined was semiconductors, and the U.S. dependence on <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-01-25/the-world-is-dangerously-dependent-on-taiwan-for-semiconductors">TSMC</a> in Taiwan, for its most advanced logic chips.</p> <p>In <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/09/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-5-ai-and-machine-learning/">the fifth class</a> we examined the impact that AI and Machine Learning will continue to have on the capabilities and employment of DIME-FIL.</p> <p>In <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/16/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-6-unmanned-systems-and-autonomy/">class six</a> we discussed unmanned systems and autonomy and how the advent of these weapons will change operational concepts and the face of war.</p> <p>Today’s class: The Second Space Age: Great Power Competition in Space.</p> <p>Catch up with the class by reading our <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/09/21/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition/">intro to the class</a>, and summaries of <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/13/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-1/">Classes 1</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/19/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-2/">2</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/26/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-3/">3</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/02/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-4/">4</a><u>,</u> <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/09/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-5-ai-and-machine-learning/">5</a> and <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/16/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-6-unmanned-systems-and-autonomy/">6</a><strong> </strong></p> <hr /> <h3><strong><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-7-cover-slide.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28065" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/lecture-7-cover-slide/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-7-cover-slide.jpg?fit=1440%2C810&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1440,810" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Lecture 7 cover slide" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-7-cover-slide.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-7-cover-slide.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-28065" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-7-cover-slide.jpg?resize=468%2C263&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="263" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-7-cover-slide.jpg?resize=1024%2C576&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-7-cover-slide.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-7-cover-slide.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-7-cover-slide.jpg?resize=768%2C432&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-7-cover-slide.jpg?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-7-cover-slide.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a>Required readings</strong></h3> <p><strong>The Cold War: Space Race 1.0</strong></p> <ul> <li>Martand Jha, “<a href="https://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-the-space-race-changed-the-great-power-rivalry-forever-21690">This Is How the Space Race Changed the Great Power Rivalry Forever</a>” The National Interest, July 27, 2017.</li> <li>“<a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11895">Space as a Warfighting Domain: Issues for Congress</a>” Congressional Research Service</li> <li>Maddie Davis, “<a href="https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/educational-resources/space-race">The Space Race</a>” University of Virginia – The Miller Center, 2021.</li> <li>“<a href="https://www.nationalmuseum.af.mil/Visit/Museum-Exhibits/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/195923/cold-war-in-space-top-secret-reconaissance-satellites-revealed/">Cold War in Space: Top Secret Reconnaissance Satellites Revealed</a>” National Museum of the United States Air Force, June 02, 2015.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Space as a Domain</strong></p> <ul> <li>Lt Gen David “D. T.” Thompson, “<a href="https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/ASPJ/journals/Volume-32_Issue-2/SLP-Thompson.pdf">Space as a War-Fighting Domain</a>” Air & Space Power Journal, Summer 2018.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Age of Great Power Competition: Space Race 2.0</strong></p> <ul> <li>William J. Broad, “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/24/us/politics/trump-biden-pentagon-space-missiles-satellite.html">How Space Became the Next ‘Great Power’ Contest Between the U.S. and China</a>” New York Times, Jan. 24, 2021.</li> <li>Luke Harding, “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jul/16/the-space-race-is-back-on-but-who-will-win">The Space Race is Back On—But Who Will Win?</a>” Guardian, July 16, 2021.</li> <li>Tim Harford, “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48533945">The CubeSat Revolution Changing the Way We See the World</a>” BBC News, July 17, 2019.</li> <li>Alexander Bowe, “<a href="https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/USCC_China%27s%20Space%20Power%20Goals.pdf">China’s Pursuit of Space Power Status and Implications for the United States</a>” U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Apr. 11, 2019.</li> <li>Greg Autry & Steve Kwast, “<a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/22/america-is-losing-the-second-space-race-to-china/">America is Losing the Second Space Race to China</a>” Foreign Policy, Aug. 22, 2019.</li> </ul> <p><strong>America’s Space Forces</strong></p> <ul> <li>“<a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11495">Defense Primer: The United States Space Force</a>” Congressional Research Service</li> <li>“<a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Feature-Stories/Story/Article/2446327/whats-with-all-the-us-space-related-agencies/">What’s With All the U.S. Space-Related Agencies</a>” U.S. Department of Defense, Dec. 14, 2020.</li> <li>Bryan Bender, “<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/03/space-force-explained-465799">What the Space Force Is, and Isn’t</a>” Politico, Feb. 03, 2021.</li> <li>John W. Raymond, “<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/12/building-21st-century-space-force/617434/?utm_source=feed">How We’re Building a 21st-Century Space Force</a>” The Atlantic, Dec. 20, 2020.</li> <li>“<a href="https://media.defense.gov/2019/Mar/01/2002095012/-1/-1/1/UNITED-STATES-SPACE-FORCE-STRATEGIC-OVERVIEW.PDF">United States Space Force</a>” U.S. Department of Defense, Feb. 2019.</li> <li>“<a href="https://www.defense.gov/Spotlights/DOD-Space-Strategy/">DOD Space Strategy</a>”, U.S. Department of Defense, 2021.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Space Threats & Non-State Actors</strong></p> <ul> <li>Harsh Vasani, “<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2017/01/how-china-is-weaponizing-outer-space/">How China Is Weaponizing Outer Space</a>” The Diplomat, Jan. 19, 2017.</li> <li>Hanneke Weitering, “<a href="https://www.space.com/russia-launches-anti-satellite-missile-test-2020">Russia Has Launched an Anti-Satellite Missile Test, US Space Command Says</a>” Space.com, Dec. 16, 2020</li> <li>Andre Kwok, “<a href="https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2021/09/09/the-growing-threat-of-cybercrime-in-the-space-domain/">The Growing Threat of Cybercrime in the Space Domain</a>” East Asia Forum, Sept. 9, 2021.</li> </ul> <h3><strong>Reading Assignment Questions</strong></h3> <p><em>Pick one of the below questions and answer in approximately 100 words, based on the required readings. </em></p> <ol> <li>Describe America’s space assets and the role of the U.S. Space Force in protecting and employing those assets. As the U.S. Space Force continues to develop, what changes in strategy and/or addition to its portfolio of responsibilities would you recommend?</li> <li>What is the greatest current threat to U.S. interests in space? What recommendations would you have for the U.S. and its partners to mitigate that threat?</li> </ol> <h3><strong>Class 7 – Guest</strong> <strong>Speaker</strong></h3> <p>Our guest speaker was <a href="https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Biographies/Display/Article/108479/lieutenant-general-john-w-jay-raymond/">General John Raymond</a>, Chief of Space Operations. He is the first Chief of Space Operations, <a href="https://www.spaceforce.mil/">U.S. Space Force</a>. Space Force has three major commands — <a href="https://www.spoc.spaceforce.mil/">Space Operations Command</a>, <a href="https://www.ssc.spaceforce.mil/">Space Systems Command</a>, and <a href="https://www.starcom.spaceforce.mil/">Space Training and Readiness Command</a>.</p> <p>The Space Force was born as a separate service in December 2019. Previously General Raymond led re-establishment of <a href="https://www.spacecom.mil/#/">U.S. Space Command</a> as 11th U.S. combatant command, and was for a year the head of both a service (Space Force) and a combatant command (Space Command).</p> <p>Raymond said a focus for the Space Force is being lean and fast, innovative and unified.</p> <p>Space was once considered “benign,” largely uninhabited except by the United States and Russia and the Soviet Union. Today it is far more crowded and dangerous. Raymond pointed out that the ability to operate in space is critical not only to protect U.S. security, but also to power the U.S. and global economy, communications, transportation and other essential functions of everyday life.</p> <p>“Space is clearly a warfighting domain and we’re convinced that if deterrence were to fail, we’re going to have to fight and win the battle for space superiority,” he said.</p> <h3><strong>Lecture 7</strong></h3> <iframe src='https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/250694000' width='468' height='384' sandbox="allow-popups allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-presentation" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen></iframe> <p>If you can’t see the lecture 7 slides <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/lecture-7-technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-space">click here.</a></p> <p>Next Week: <a href="https://steveblank.com/?p=28073" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cyber</a></p> <h3><strong>Lessons Learned</strong></h3> <blockquote> <ul> <li>Our military depends on our assets in space (satellites) for communication, navigation, situational awareness (via photo, radar and electronic intelligence satellites) warning and targeting</li> <li>Our civilian economy also depends on space assets for GPS and communication</li> <li>Space is now a contested environment with China and Russia capable of disabling/destroying our satellites <ul> <li>Using directed energy (lasers), cyber, electronic warfare, ground or space-based kinetic weapons</li> </ul> </li> </ul> </blockquote> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27781" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/gkc-logo/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?fit=435%2C79&ssl=1" data-orig-size="435,79" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="GKC Logo" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?fit=300%2C54&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?fit=435%2C79&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-27781" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?resize=300%2C54&ssl=1" alt="" width="300" height="54" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?resize=300%2C54&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?resize=150%2C27&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?w=435&ssl=1 435w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></a><br /> <iframe loading="lazy" width="100%" height="91" scrolling="no" frameborder="no" src="https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F1190574196&width=false&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&visual=false&show_comments=false&color=false&show_user=false&show_reposts=false"></iframe></p> <div class="sharedaddy sd-sharing-enabled"><div class="robots-nocontent sd-block sd-social sd-social-official sd-sharing"><h3 class="sd-title">Share this:</h3><div class="sd-content"><ul><li class="share-print"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="" class="share-print sd-button" href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/23/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-7-space/" target="_blank" title="Click to print" ><span>Print</span></a></li><li class="share-email"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="" class="share-email sd-button" href="mailto:?subject=%5BShared%20Post%5D%20Technology%2C%20Innovation%2C%20and%20Great%20Power%20Competition%20%E2%80%93%20Class%207%20%E2%80%93%C2%A0Space&body=https%3A%2F%2Fsteveblank.com%2F2021%2F11%2F23%2Ftechnology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-7-space%2F&share=email" target="_blank" title="Click to email a link to a friend" data-email-share-error-title="Do you have email set up?" data-email-share-error-text="If you're having problems sharing via email, you might not have email set up for your browser. 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data-title='Like or Reblog'><h3 class="sd-title">Like this:</h3><div class='likes-widget-placeholder post-likes-widget-placeholder' style='height: 55px;'><span class='button'><span>Like</span></span> <span class="loading">Loading...</span></div><span class='sd-text-color'></span><a class='sd-link-color'></a></div> <p class="postinfo"> Filed under: <a href="https://steveblank.com/category/technology-innovation-and-modern-war/" rel="category tag">Technology Innovation and Great Power Competition</a> | <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/23/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-7-space/#respond">Leave a comment »</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="post-28039 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-technology-innovation-and-modern-war" id="post-28039"> <h2><a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/16/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-6-unmanned-systems-and-autonomy/" rel="bookmark">Technology, Innovation, and Great Power Competition – Class 6 – Unmanned Systems and Autonomy</a></h2> <div class="postinfo"> Posted on <span class="postdate">November 16, 2021</span> by steve blank </div> <div class="entry"> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27853" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/modern-war-institute/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?fit=450%2C92&ssl=1" data-orig-size="450,92" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="modern war institute" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?fit=300%2C61&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?fit=450%2C92&ssl=1" class="alignleft size-thumbnail wp-image-27853" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?resize=150%2C31&ssl=1" alt="" width="150" height="31" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?resize=150%2C31&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?resize=300%2C61&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/modern-war-institute.jpg?w=450&ssl=1 450w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px" /></a>This article first appeared in West Point’s <a href="https://mwi.usma.edu/">Modern War Institute.</a></p> <hr /> <p>We just completed the sixth week of our new national security class at Stanford – <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/09/21/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition/">Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition</a>. <a href="https://www.defense.gov/Our-Story/Biographies/Biography/Article/1306061/dr-joseph-h-felter/">Joe Felter</a>, <a href="https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/zh-ch/people/raj-shah">Raj Shah</a> and I designed the class to cover how technology will shape the character and employment of <em>all instruments</em> of national power.</p> <p>In <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/13/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-1/">class 1</a>, we learned that national power is the sum of all the resources available to a state to pursue its national objectives and interests. This power is wielded through a combination of a country’s diplomacy, information, its military capabilities, economic strength, finance, intelligence, and law enforcement. These instruments of national power employed in a “whole of government approach” to advance a state’s interests are known by the acronym <a href="https://nwc.ndu.edu/Portals/71/Documents/Publications/NWC%20Primer%202020%20Final.pdf">DIME</a><u>-FIL.</u></p> <p><a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/19/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-2/">Class 2</a> focused on China, the U.S.’s primary great power competitor. China is using all elements of its national power, e.g. information/ intelligence, its military might and economic strength as well as exploiting Western finance and technology. China’s goal is to challenge and overturn the U.S.-led liberal international order and replace it with its own <a href="https://www.hoover.org/press-releases/hoover-institution-releases-essay-former-chinese-communist-party-insider-about">neo-totalitarian model</a><u> where China emerges as the dominant regional and global power</u>.</p> <p><a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/26/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-3/">The third class</a> focused on Russia, which since 2014 has asserted itself as a competing great power. We learned how Russia pursues security and economic interests in parallel with its ideological aims.</p> <p><a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/02/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-4/">The fourth</a> class shifted our focus to the impact commercial technologies have on the instruments of national power (DIME-FIL). The first technology we examined were <em>semiconductors, </em>and the U.S. dependence on <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-01-25/the-world-is-dangerously-dependent-on-taiwan-for-semiconductors">TSMC</a> in Taiwan, for its most advanced logic chips. This is problematic as China claims Taiwan is a province of China.</p> <p>In <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/09/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-5-ai-and-machine-learning/">the fifth class</a> we examined the impact that AI and Machine Learning will continue to have on the capabilities and employment of DIME-FIL. We heard from the <a href="https://www.ai.mil/index.html">Joint Artificial Intelligence Center</a> (JAIC), the focal point of the DOD AI strategy; and from the <a href="https://www.diu.mil/">Defense Innovation Unit</a> (DIU) – a DoD organization that contracts with commercial companies to solve national security problems.</p> <p>Today’s class: <em>Unmanned Platforms</em> and <em>Autonomy</em></p> <p>Catch up with the class by reading our <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/09/21/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition/">intro to the class</a>, and summaries of <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/13/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-1/">Classes 1</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/19/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-2/">2</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/26/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-3/">3</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/02/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-4/">4</a> and <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/09/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-5-ai-and-machine-learning/">5</a></p> <hr /> <p><strong><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-6-Cover-slide.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28036" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/lecture-6-cover-slide/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-6-Cover-slide.jpg?fit=1440%2C810&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1440,810" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Lecture 6 Cover slide" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-6-Cover-slide.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-6-Cover-slide.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-28036" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-6-Cover-slide.jpg?resize=468%2C263&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="263" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-6-Cover-slide.jpg?resize=1024%2C576&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-6-Cover-slide.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-6-Cover-slide.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-6-Cover-slide.jpg?resize=768%2C432&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-6-Cover-slide.jpg?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-6-Cover-slide.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></strong></p> <h3><strong>Required Readings</strong></h3> <p><strong>Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) & Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)</strong></p> <ul> <li>Helen Warrell, “<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/6346dd78-322d-11ea-9703-eea0cae3f0de">From Desert Storm to Soleimani: How US Drone Warfare has Evolved</a>” <em>Financial Times</em>, 2020.</li> <li>Kelley Sayler, “<a href="https://drones.cnas.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CNAS-World-of-Drones_052115.pdf">A World of Proliferated Drones: A Technology Primer</a>” <em>Center for a New American Security</em>, 2015.</li> <li>Paul Scharre et al., “<a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2018-02-15/why-drones-are-still-future-war">Why Drones Are Still the Future of War: Troops Will Learn to Trust Them</a>” <em>Foreign Affairs</em>, 2018.</li> <li>Erik Lin-Greenberg, “<a href="https://warontherocks.com/2019/01/game-of-drones-what-experimental-wargames-reveal-about-drones-and-escalation/">Game of Drones: What Experimental Wargames Reveal About Drones and Escalation</a>” <em>War on the Rocks</em>, 2019.</li> <li>David Hambling, “<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2021/03/01/what-are-drone-swarms-and-why-does-everyone-suddenly-want-one/?sh=427182e22f5c">What Are Drone Swarms and Why Does Every Military Suddenly Want One?</a>” <em>Forbes</em>, 2021.</li> <li>VIDEO “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CO6M2HsoIA">Slaughterbots</a>” <em>Stop Autonomous Weapons – YouTube</em>, 2017.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV) / Unmanned Undersea Vessel (UUV)</strong></p> <ul> <li>Ronald O’Rourke, “<a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/R45757.pdf">Navy Large Unmanned Surface and Undersea Vehicles: Background and Issues for Congress</a>” <em>Congressional Research Service</em>, 2021.</li> <li>“<a href="https://www.naval-technology.com/features/sea-hunter-inside-us-navys-autonomous-submarine-tracking-vessel/">Sea Hunter: Inside the US Navy’s Autonomous Submarine Tracking Vessel</a>” <em>Naval Technology</em>, 2020.</li> </ul> <p><strong>U.S. Unmanned Warfare Concepts</strong></p> <ul> <li>“<a href="https://www.darpa.mil/work-with-us/darpa-tiles-together-a-vision-of-mosiac-warfare">DARPA Tiles Together a Vision of Mosaic Warfare</a>” <em>Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency</em>.</li> </ul> <p><strong>China Unmanned Warfare Concepts</strong></p> <ul> <li>Blake Schmidt & Ashlee Vance, “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-03-26/dji-s-drone-supremacy-comes-at-a-price">DJI Won the Drone Wars, and Now It’s Paying the Price</a>” <em>Bloomberg Businessweek</em>, 2020.</li> <li>Michael C. Horowitz et al., “<a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-11-20/china-has-made-drone-warfare-global">China Has Made Drone Warfare Global</a>” <em>Foreign Affairs</em>, 2020.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Use of Drones in Nagorno-Karabakh</strong></p> <ul> <li>Robyn Dixon, “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/nagorno-karabkah-drones-azerbaijan-aremenia/2020/11/11/441bcbd2-193d-11eb-8bda-814ca56e138b_story.html">Azerbaijan’s Drones Owned the Battlefield in Nagorno-Karabakh—and Showed the Future of Warfare</a>” <em>Washington Post</em>, 2020.</li> <li>Shaan Shaikh & Wes Rumbaugh, “<a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/air-and-missile-war-nagorno-karabakh-lessons-future-strike-and-defense">The Air and Missile War in Nagorno-Karabakh: Lessons for the Future of Strike and Defense</a>”, <em>Center for Strategic & International Studies</em>, 2020.</li> <li>Jack Detsch, “<a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/30/army-pentagon-nagorno-karabakh-drones/">The U.S. Army Goes to School on Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict</a>” <em>Foreign Policy</em>, 2021.</li> </ul> <h3><strong>Reading Assignment Questions</strong></h3> <p><em>Pick one of the below questions and answer in approximately 100 words, based on the required readings. </em></p> <ol> <li>Describe how the advent of autonomous weapon systems (i.e. drones) has changed the American way of war to date. What changes would you recommend America adopt as autonomous systems continue to develop?</li> <li>Pick one domain of war (e.g. air, land, sea, subsea, space, etc.). How does the proliferation of autonomous weapon systems to great powers, lesser powers, or non-state actors (pick one of the three) threaten America’s traditional military advantages in that domain?</li> </ol> <h3><strong>Class 6 – Guest</strong> <strong>Speakers and Autonomy Panel</strong></h3> <p>This class had seven guest speakers on unmanned systems and autonomy.</p> <p>Our first guest speaker was <a href="https://www.onr.navy.mil/en/About-ONR/Leadership/Chief-Naval-Research">Rear Admiral Lorin Selby</a>, Chief of Naval Research, United States Navy. Admiral Selby is responsible for the Naval Research Enterprise. It is the “venture capital” of the Navy and Marine Corps. It’s made up of <a href="https://www.onr.navy.mil/">ONR – the Office of Naval Research</a>, <a href="https://www.onr.navy.mil/en/Science-Technology/ONR-Global">ONR Global</a>, the <a href="https://www.nrl.navy.mil/">Naval Research Laboratory</a>, and Special Projects (PMR 51.)</p> <p>(Founded in August 1946, ONR provided support of research at universities when WWII government funding to universities had dried up. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/personal-investments/ng-interactive/2016/oct/04/frederick-terman-silicon-valley-mentor-stanford-hp">Fred Terman</a><u>,</u> Stanford’s dean of engineering, received ONR’s first research grants for electronics and microwaves. These grants funded the Stanford Electronics Research Laboratory and kick-started innovation in what would become Silicon Valley.) Fast forward to this decade and ONR funded our first <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/90692204/in-this-popular-stanford-class-students-build-tech-for-the-military" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Stanford Hacking for Defense</a> classes and is the first funder of the Stanford Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation.</p> <p>RADM Selby described the role of the Chief of Naval Research, the types of innovation, the role of ONR in capturing new/relevant ideas and pulling them in fast enough to compete with adversaries, but not disrupt the functionality of the Navy.</p> <p>Our next guest was <a href="https://www.defense.gov/About/Biographies/Biography/Article/2762694/maynard-holliday/">Maynard Holliday</a> the DoD Director of <a href="https://www.cto.mil/modernization-priorities/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Defense Research and Engineering for Modernization</a> (5G; Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning; Autonomy; Biotechnology; Cyber; Directed Energy; Fully Networked Command, Control, and Communications; Hypersonics; Microelectronics; Quantum Science; and Space). He described the role of his office as similar to DARPA. His 11 principal directors lay out the technical roadmaps for the DoD and help transition the technologies into operational use.</p> <p>The principal DoD Modernization director for autonomy, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/jaret-c-riddick-phd-704120b2/">Dr. Jaret C. Riddick</a>, then joined us. He helped the class understand the DoD definition of Autonomy, the Lines of Effort the DoD is actively pursuing, and why it was important.</p> <h3><strong>Lecture 6</strong></h3> <iframe src='https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/250648739' width='468' height='384' sandbox="allow-popups allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-presentation" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen></iframe> <p>If you can’t see the lecture 6 slides <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/lecture-6-technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-autonomy-and-unmanned-systems">click here</a>.</p> <p>In the Department of Defense unmanned systems and autonomy are moving ahead rapidly. We gave the students a feel for the scope of the activities in two panel sessions.</p> <h3><strong>Panel 1 – Autonomy/Unmanned Systems Research and Engineering</strong></h3> <p>RADM Selby, Mr. Holliday, and Mr. Riddick joined a panel discussion on how their organizations set their research priorities and investment strategies. They discussed:</p> <ol> <li>What time horizon their organizations consider when determining which technologies to invest in</li> <li>How these investment strategies and time horizons compare and contrast with the same considerations made by China and Russia</li> <li>What the future of autonomous systems looks like. What the largest gains their organizations hope to make with investments in autonomy</li> <li>What ethical considerations they take into account when making technology investments Whether China and/or Russia have similar or different ethical considerations. How these ethical frameworks affect America’s ability to compete</li> </ol> <h3><strong>Panel 2 – An Application of Autonomy – the Navy </strong><strong>Unmanned Task Force</strong></h3> <p>Four other experts on Autonomy in defense joined us for a discussion of the Vice Chief of Naval Operations Unmanned Task Force: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-stewart-994b49145/">Michael Stewart</a>, Director of the US Navy Unmanned Task Force and Deputy Director Integrated Warfare; <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/brad-r-garber/">Bradley Garber</a>, Deputy Director/Principal Civilian Advisor to the Vice Chief of Naval Operations; Dr. Jason Stack, the Office of Naval Research Portfolio Manager for Autonomy; and Dr. <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/shanearnott/">Shane Arnott</a>, Chief Engineer, Anduril Industries. They discussed:</p> <ol> <li>The impetus for the creation of their task forces</li> <li>The biggest challenges and opportunities for integrating autonomy from the private sector to support the DoD</li> <li>What the future of autonomous systems looks like. The largest gains that their organizations hope to make with investments in autonomy</li> <li>Where China and/or Russia are making the largest gains with autonomous systems. What threat this presents to U.S. interests</li> </ol> <p>Next Week: <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/23/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-7-space/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>The Second Space Age: Great Power Competition in Space</em></a></p> <h3><strong>Lessons Learned</strong></h3> <blockquote> <ul> <li>Autonomy and Unmanned Systems are critical technologies that will impact all aspects of the instruments of DIME-FIL national power <ul> <li>While advanced work in autonomy is happening in the DoD ecosystem, commercial companies and universities still lead</li> <li>China and Russia have made autonomy and unmanned systems national priorities</li> <li>Other countries, e.g. Turkey and Israel, have proliferated systems that have been used to <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/30/army-pentagon-nagorno-karabakh-drones/">win a war</a></li> </ul> </li> <li>The Navy is actively looking to build and integrate unmanned/autonomous systems as part of the fleet</li> </ul> </blockquote> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27781" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/gkc-logo/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?fit=435%2C79&ssl=1" data-orig-size="435,79" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="GKC Logo" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?fit=300%2C54&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?fit=435%2C79&ssl=1" class="wp-image-27781 size-full aligncenter" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?resize=435%2C79&ssl=1" alt="" width="435" height="79" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?w=435&ssl=1 435w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?resize=300%2C54&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?resize=150%2C27&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 435px) 100vw, 435px" /></a><br /> <iframe loading="lazy" width="100%" height="91" scrolling="no" frameborder="no" src="https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F1189033681&width=false&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&visual=false&show_comments=false&color=false&show_user=false&show_reposts=false"></iframe></p> <div class="sharedaddy sd-sharing-enabled"><div class="robots-nocontent sd-block sd-social sd-social-official sd-sharing"><h3 class="sd-title">Share this:</h3><div class="sd-content"><ul><li class="share-print"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="" class="share-print sd-button" href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/16/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-6-unmanned-systems-and-autonomy/" target="_blank" title="Click to print" ><span>Print</span></a></li><li class="share-email"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="" class="share-email sd-button" href="mailto:?subject=%5BShared%20Post%5D%20Technology%2C%20Innovation%2C%20and%20Great%20Power%20Competition%20%E2%80%93%20Class%206%20%E2%80%93%C2%A0Unmanned%20Systems%20and%20Autonomy&body=https%3A%2F%2Fsteveblank.com%2F2021%2F11%2F16%2Ftechnology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-6-unmanned-systems-and-autonomy%2F&share=email" target="_blank" title="Click to email a link to a friend" data-email-share-error-title="Do you have email set up?" data-email-share-error-text="If you're having problems sharing via email, you might not have email set up for your browser. 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id="post-27995"> <h2><a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/11/when-there-seems-to-be-no-way-out-customer-discovery-for-your-head/" rel="bookmark">When There Seems to Be No Way Out – Customer Discovery for Your Head</a></h2> <div class="postinfo"> Posted on <span class="postdate">November 11, 2021</span> by steve blank </div> <div class="entry"> <p>As an entrepreneur at times you forget that being in charge doesn’t mean you have to know everything. When it feels like you’re trapped facing an unsolvable dilemma, and wrestling with a seemingly intractable problem, remember that “getting out of your head” is the personal equivalent of the Lean Startup mantra “get out of the building.”</p> <p>Learning this was a big step in making me a more effective entrepreneur.</p> <hr /> <p>As a young, driven entrepreneur I prided myself on my ability to plan my way out of most business problems. But at times in my career I’d run into a problem I couldn’t solve. Sometimes these problems would keep me up at night worrying, thoughts racing around my head like a tornado between my ears. I’d imagine only the worst possible outcomes, thinking there were only black and white solutions, or no solutions. I’d get trapped in this loop with my wife telling me to “go to sleep,” until I finally passed out anxious and exhausted. At times this went on for days.<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/trapped-1.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28005" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/trapped-2/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/trapped-1.jpg?fit=584%2C595&ssl=1" data-orig-size="584,595" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="trapped" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/trapped-1.jpg?fit=294%2C300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/trapped-1.jpg?fit=468%2C477&ssl=1" class="alignright size-medium wp-image-28005" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/trapped-1.jpg?resize=294%2C300&ssl=1" alt="" width="294" height="300" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/trapped-1.jpg?resize=294%2C300&ssl=1 294w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/trapped-1.jpg?resize=147%2C150&ssl=1 147w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/trapped-1.jpg?w=584&ssl=1 584w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 294px) 100vw, 294px" /></a></p> <p>If the problems were about corporate politics, I’d show up the next day defensive and ready for a fight. (Relationships with sales versus my marketing department was a typical food fight and problem). If it was a meeting my boss called, I was convinced I was going to be fired (even though I couldn’t think of any rational reasons why). Half the time I’d be amazed to discover the problem or obstacle I had been worrying about didn’t even exist. I had magnified a comment, document, or an interaction, and my imagining the worst possible outcome let it spiral out of control.</p> <p>It took me a long time to see there was an easy way to break this obsessive cycle and end up with much better options. The key, I found, was getting out of my head and talking to other people.</p> <p>—</p> <h3><strong>You are not alone</strong></h3> <p>When I was younger, I didn’t realize:</p> <ol> <li>Often, the problems I experienced at work were common problems. Others have these problems now or encountered them before</li> <li>If others had the problems, then there were solutions or at a minimum, good advice was available</li> <li>If I had shared that I was stuck, and needed help, lots was available</li> <li>Not only was this true for problems at work, but even more so at home</li> </ol> <p><em>1. These </em>were<em> common problems; others had these same problems now or encountered them before</em></p> <p>When I was in the middle of trying to solve a problem, it never occurred to me that these problems were not unique to me. I felt they were my exclusively <u>mine</u> and that meant that I alone needed to solve them.</p> <p>Since I hadn’t run into this problem before I assumed no one else had. (In hindsight this was likely due to my age/lack of experience.) Later in my career, I began to see common problems recur. But at the time, I never considered that others had encountered these same problems.</p> <p>2. If <em>others had faced these problems, then there were solutions or at a minimum, good advice was available</em></p> <p>Here’s the critical opportunity that I missed. There was a whole world of people who went through, or were going through, what I was struggling with. Some of them had figured out how to solve it, some made bad decisions and didn’t solve it, but all had experience in seeing a resolution one way or the other. Some could tell you stories of what they went through, others could tell you what worked or didn’t, and a few had real wisdom to share. And often I would discover what I thought was a critical problem really wasn’t. It wouldn’t end my career, or no one would really care.</p> <p><em>3. If I had only shared that I was stuck, and needed help, lots was available</em></p> <p>Seek out the advice of others? Ask others for help? The thought never crossed my mind. (See item 1.) And if it had, I would have rejected it. Why? Well a loss of control, admission of failure, loss of stature, embarrassment, etc. I thought I should have all the answers.</p> <p>Getting out of my head and asking for others for help also required a network of <a href="https://steveblank.com/2011/04/19/mentors-coaches-and-teachers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">mentors/coaches and advisors</a>. Early in my career I didn’t have any/many. Later I realized how valuable they were. As I began connecting I learned to ask not just about how to solve my specific problem, but also, what did <em>they</em> do when they felt stuck? How did they learn to do this rather than stay in their heads?</p> <p>When I was an entrepreneur a face-to-face meeting or a phone call was the only way to get advice. That was a barrier to many. Today, the Internet has eliminated most of those obstacles. You can go online and with a simple search find others who have had the same issues you’re wrestling with and read how they solved them.</p> <p><em>4. Not only was this true for problems at work, but even more so at home</em></p> <p>Like most people, at times I had problems outside of work with personal issues like dating, marriage, etc., that made me distracted and less effective at work. I finally realized that getting out of my head at home gave me space to be more effective at work. However, it’s often even harder to ask for help because of embarrassment, denial, etc. On the other hand, there are entire support communities for non-work issues (psychologists, group therapy, etc.) There are even <a href="https://www.verywellmind.com/the-diagnostic-and-statistical-manual-dsm-2795758" target="_blank" rel="noopener">manuals that describe common psychological problems</a> and their treatment.</p> <p><strong>Lessons Learned</strong></p> <blockquote> <ul> <li>The “get out of your head” strategy is the personal equivalent of the “get out of the building” mantra of the Lean Startup</li> <li>Don’t spend a lot of time obsessing. Reach out to mentors, coaches and advisors for personalized advice. Use the web to find generic advice</li> <li>“Getting out of my head” to seek advice and the wisdom of experience was a big step in becoming a more effective entrepreneur</li> </ul> </blockquote> <iframe loading="lazy" width="100%" height="91" scrolling="no" frameborder="no" src="https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F1183127788&width=false&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&visual=false&show_comments=false&color=false&show_user=false&show_reposts=false"></iframe> <div class="sharedaddy sd-sharing-enabled"><div class="robots-nocontent sd-block sd-social sd-social-official sd-sharing"><h3 class="sd-title">Share this:</h3><div class="sd-content"><ul><li class="share-print"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="" class="share-print sd-button" href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/11/when-there-seems-to-be-no-way-out-customer-discovery-for-your-head/" target="_blank" title="Click to print" ><span>Print</span></a></li><li class="share-email"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="" class="share-email sd-button" href="mailto:?subject=%5BShared%20Post%5D%20When%20There%20Seems%20to%20Be%20No%20Way%20Out%20-%20Customer%20Discovery%20for%20Your%20Head&body=https%3A%2F%2Fsteveblank.com%2F2021%2F11%2F11%2Fwhen-there-seems-to-be-no-way-out-customer-discovery-for-your-head%2F&share=email" target="_blank" title="Click to email a link to a friend" data-email-share-error-title="Do you have email set up?" data-email-share-error-text="If you're having problems sharing via email, you might not have email set up for your browser. 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This “whole of government approach” is known by the acronym <a href="https://nwc.ndu.edu/Portals/71/Documents/Publications/NWC%20Primer%202020%20Final.pdf">DIME</a><u>-FIL.</u></p> <p><a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/19/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-2/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Class 2</a> focused on China, the U.S.’s primary great power competitor. China is using all elements of national power: diplomacy (soft power, alliances, coercion), information/ intelligence, its military might and economic strength (<a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Belt and Road Initiative</a>) as well as exploiting Western finance and technology. China’s goal is to challenge and overturn the U.S.-led liberal international order and replace it with a <a href="https://www.hoover.org/press-releases/hoover-institution-releases-essay-former-chinese-communist-party-insider-about" target="_blank" rel="noopener">neo-totalitarian model</a>.</p> <p><a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/26/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-3/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The third class</a> focused on Russia, which since 2014 has asserted itself as a competing great power. We learned how Russia pursues security and economic interests in parallel with its ideological aims. At times, these objectives complement each other. At other times they clash, as Russian policy is run by Vladimir Putin and his political institutions.</p> <p><a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/02/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-4/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The fourth</a> class shifted our focus to the impact commercial technologies have on DIME-FIL. The first technology we examined were <em>semiconductors, </em>the oil of the 21st century. The U.S. is dependent on <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-01-25/the-world-is-dangerously-dependent-on-taiwan-for-semiconductors">TSMC</a>, located in Taiwan, for its most advanced logic chips. This is problematic as China claims Taiwan is a province of China.</p> <p>Today’s class: <em>Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning</em></p> <p>Catch up with the class by reading our <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/09/21/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">intro to the class</a>, and summaries of <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/13/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-1/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Classes 1</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/19/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-2/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/26/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-3/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">3</a> and <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/02/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-4/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">4</a></p> <hr /> <p><strong><em><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Lecture-5-TIGPC.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27941" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/lecture-5-tigpc/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Lecture-5-TIGPC.jpg?fit=720%2C405&ssl=1" data-orig-size="720,405" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Lecture 5 TIGPC" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Lecture-5-TIGPC.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Lecture-5-TIGPC.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-27941" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Lecture-5-TIGPC.jpg?resize=468%2C263&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="263" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Lecture-5-TIGPC.jpg?w=720&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Lecture-5-TIGPC.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Lecture-5-TIGPC.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a> </em></strong></p> <h3><strong><em>Required Readings </em></strong></h3> <p><strong>Introduction to AI </strong></p> <ul> <li>VIDEO “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xATEwcRpy8">Reinforcement Learning Basics</a>” <em>Udacity – YouTube</em>, June 6, 2016.</li> <li>VIDEO Andrew Ng “<a href="https://www.coursera.org/lecture/ai-for-everyone/machine-learning-5TPFo">Machine Learning</a>” <em>Coursera</em>.</li> <li><em>Optional</em> Stuart Russell & Peter Norvig, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Artificial-Intelligence-A-Modern-Approach/dp/0134610997/ref=pd_lpo_1?pd_rd_i=0134610997&psc=1">Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach</a> (AI textbook for students looking for a post-class resource).</li> </ul> <p><strong>The AI Arms Race: Fact or Fiction? </strong></p> <ul> <li>Nicholas Thompson & Ian Bremer, “<a href="https://www.wired.com/story/ai-cold-war-china-could-doom-us-all/">The AI Cold War That Threatens Us All</a>” <em>WIRED</em>, Oct. 23, 2018.</li> <li>Kai-fu Lee “<a href="https://www.wired.com/story/why-china-can-do-ai-more-quickly-and-effectively-than-the-us/">Why China Can Do AI More Quickly and Effectively Than the US</a>” <em>Wired</em>, Oct. 23, 2018.</li> <li>Paul Scharre, “<a href="https://tnsr.org/2021/06/debunking-the-ai-arms-race-theory/">Debunking the AI Arms Race Theory</a>” <em>Texas National Security Review</em>, Summer 2021.</li> <li>Greg Allen & Taniel Chan, “<a href="https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/files/publication/AI%20NatSec%20-%20final.pdf">Artificial Intelligence and National Security</a>” <em>Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center</em>, July 2017. (Read the 7-page exec summary but the whole report is great).</li> </ul> <p><strong>China’s AI Strategy</strong></p> <ul> <li>Jeffrey Ding, “<a href="https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/June%207%20Hearing_Panel%201_Jeffrey%20Ding_China%27s%20Current%20Capabilities%2C%20Policies%2C%20and%20Industrial%20Ecosystem%20in%20AI.pdf">China’s Current Capabilities, Policies, and Industrial Ecosystem in AI</a>” <em>Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission Hearing on Technology, Trade, and Military-Civil Fusion: China’s Pursuit of Artificial Intelligence, New Materials, and New Energy</em>, June 7, 2019.</li> <li>Helen Toner, “<a href="https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/June%207%20Hearing_Panel%201_Helen%20Toner_Written%20Testimony%20on%20China%27s%20Pursuit%20of%20AI.pdf">Technology, Trade, and Military-Civil Fusion: China’s Pursuit of Artificial Intelligence, New Materials, and New Energy</a>” <em>Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission</em>, June 7, 2019.</li> <li>Ryan Fedasiuk, Jennifer Melot, Ben Murphy, “<a href="https://cset.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/CSET-Harnessed-Lightning.pdf">Harnessed Lightning, How the Chinese Military is Adopting Artificial Intelligence</a> Center for Security and Emerging Technology (<a href="https://cset.georgetown.edu/">CSET</a>)</li> </ul> <p><strong>Russian AI Strategy</strong></p> <ul> <li>Jeffrey Edmonds, Samuel Bendett, Anya Fink, et al., “<a href="https://www.cna.org/centers/cna/sppp/rsp/russia-ai">Artificial Intelligence and Autonomy in Russia</a>” <a href="https://www.cna.org/">CNA</a>– Center for Naval Analysis</li> </ul> <p><strong>US AI Strategy </strong></p> <p><em>Obama Administration</em></p> <ul> <li>Ed Felten, “<a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2016/05/03/preparing-future-artificial-intelligence">Preparing for the Future of Artificial Intelligence</a>” <em>The White House – President Barack Obama</em>, May 3, 2016.</li> <li>“<a href="https://www.nitrd.gov/PUBS/national_ai_rd_strategic_plan.pdf">The National Artificial Intelligence Research and Development Strategic Plan</a>” <em>Executive</em></li> </ul> <p><em>Trump Administration</em></p> <ul> <li><a href="https://media.defense.gov/2019/Feb/12/2002088963/-1/-1/1/SUMMARY-OF-DOD-AI-STRATEGY.PDF">2018 Department of Defense Artificial Intelligence Strategy</a> <em>Department of Defense</em></li> <li><strong>“</strong><a href="https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/white-house-launches-national-artificial-intelligence-initiative-office/">The White House Launches the National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Office</a>” <em>The White House – President Trump</em>, Jan. 12, 2021.</li> </ul> <p><em>Biden Administration </em></p> <ul> <li>“<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/news-updates/2021/06/10/the-biden-administration-launches-the-national-artificial-intelligence-research-resource-task-force/">The Biden Administration Launches the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource Task Force</a>”<em>The White House – President Biden</em>, June 10, 2021.</li> <li>“<a href="https://www.nscai.gov/2021-final-report/">The Final Report</a>” <em>The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence</em>, 2021. (Please read the executive summary but the whole report is excellent).</li> </ul> <p><em>Other AI and National Security Resources</em></p> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/artificial-intelligence-and-global-security">The CNAS Artificial Intelligence and Global Security Initiative</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.csis.org/programs/strategic-technologies-program/technology-and-innovation/artificial-intelligence">CSIS Center for Strategic and International Studies – Artificial Intelligence</a></li> </ul> <h3><strong>Reading Assignment Questions: </strong></h3> <p><em>Pick one of the below questions and answer in approximately 100 words, based on the required readings. Please note that this assignment will be graded and count towards course participation. </em></p> <ol> <li>How would you characterize the geopolitical AI Arms Race? Is an “arms race” the right lens through which to understand this phenomenon, or is there another way to better understand great power competition in the AI domain?</li> <li>Can the U.S. learn any lessons from China’s AI strategy?</li> </ol> <h3><strong>Class 5 – Guest</strong> <strong>Speakers</strong></h3> <p>Our speakers for our fifth class were Mike Brown, Nand Mulchandani and Jacqueline Tame.</p> <p><a href="https://www.diu.mil/team/Michael-Brown" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mike Brown</a> is the director of the <a href="https://www.diu.mil/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Defense Innovation Unit</a> (DIU) – a Department of Defense organization that contracts with commercial companies to solve national security problems. Previously Mike was the CEO of Symantec and Quantum.</p> <p><a href="https://www.ai.mil/bio_mulchandani.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nand Mulchandani</a> is the Chief Technology Officer of the <a href="https://www.ai.mil/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Joint Artificial Intelligence Center</a> (JAIC). The JAIC is the focal point of the Department of Defense AI strategy.</p> <p><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacqueline-s-tame/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jacqueline Tame</a> was the former Acting Deputy Director of the JAIC and the architect of the JAIC “Gamechanger,” an AI-driven Policy Analysis Tool.</p> <p>Mike Brown led off the session with an overview of the <a href="https://www.diu.mil/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Defense Innovation Unit</a> (DIU).</p> <iframe src='https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/250498804' width='468' height='384' sandbox="allow-popups allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-presentation" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen></iframe> <p>If you can’t see Mike Brown’s Defense Innovation Unit presentation click <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/diu-presentation-to-stanford-tigpc-class-101921" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</p> <p>Key takeaways from Mike’s talk were that 1) 50 years ago defense-related R&D made up 36% of global R&D. Today, defense-related R&D is 4%. Key technologies needed by defense today are made by commercial companies (5G, AI, biotech, quantum, access to space, batteries, etc.) 2) The top tech companies (Facebook, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple) outspend U.S. prime contractors 11 to 1 in R&D ($70.5B versus $6.2B.)</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-5-mike-brown-e1636408734542.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27977" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/lecture-5-mike-brown/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-5-mike-brown-e1636408734542.jpg?fit=1280%2C789&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1280,789" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Lecture 5 mike brown" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-5-mike-brown-e1636408734542.jpg?fit=300%2C185&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-5-mike-brown-e1636408734542.jpg?fit=468%2C288&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-27977" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Lecture-5-mike-brown.jpg?resize=468%2C288&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="288" /></a></p> <p>DIU’s role is to find and then funnel commercial technology into the DoD by prototyping, transitioning, and scaling solutions. They have (by DoD standards) an extremely fast pipeline from problem curation, to evaluating and selecting companies, then prototyping projects and inserting them into DoD programs. <a href="https://www.diu.mil/solutions/portfolio#ArtificialIntelligence">AI/ML</a>is one of the six core areas DIU focuses on (along with space, autonomy, advanced energy and materials, cyber and human systems.) DIU AI/ML has three lines of effort: machine Learning predictions, big data analysis, enhanced decision making.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/DIU-Lifecycle.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27982" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/diu-lifecycle/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/DIU-Lifecycle.jpg?fit=1333%2C639&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1333,639" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="DIU Lifecycle" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/DIU-Lifecycle.jpg?fit=300%2C144&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/DIU-Lifecycle.jpg?fit=468%2C224&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-27982" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/DIU-Lifecycle.jpg?resize=468%2C224&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="224" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/DIU-Lifecycle.jpg?resize=1024%2C491&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/DIU-Lifecycle.jpg?resize=300%2C144&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/DIU-Lifecycle.jpg?resize=150%2C72&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/DIU-Lifecycle.jpg?resize=768%2C368&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/DIU-Lifecycle.jpg?w=1333&ssl=1 1333w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/DIU-Lifecycle.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p><a href="https://www.ai.mil/bio_mulchandani.html">Nand Mulchandani</a> described the role and the initiatives of the <a href="https://www.ai.mil/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JAIC</a>. One in particular, <a href="https://www.ai.mil/blog_10_19_21_gamechanger.html">Gamechanger</a>, was conceived and run by <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacqueline-s-tame/">Jacqueline Tame</a>.</p> <p>Gamechanger uses AI to tackle a problem only a government could create. The DoD and federal regulations have 10’s of thousands of policies, laws, regulations that tell decision-makers what they can or cannot do. These exist in different places on different networks and change almost daily. Now you could simply type a natural language query that asks, “Do I have the authority do x?” Or, “How can purchase this item quickly?” etc.</p> <h3><strong>Lecture 5</strong></h3> <iframe src='https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/250498684' width='468' height='384' sandbox="allow-popups allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-presentation" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen></iframe> <p>If you can’t see the slides, click <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/lecture-5-technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition">here</a></p> <p>Our first discussion in class (<a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/lecture-5-technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition">Slide 7</a>) was whether <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolaschaillan/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nicholas Chaillan’s</a> (the first Air Force Chief Software Officer) claim that <a href="https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42733/ex-air-force-software-chief-eviscerates-pentagon-for-already-having-lost-the-ai-race-against-china" target="_blank" rel="noopener">we have already lost the AI battle</a> to China was correct.</p> <p><a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/lecture-5-technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition">Slides 9-14</a> kicked off the discussion of the geopolitical implications of AI. Given both China and Russia have made a AI a national effort, how will AI impact all aspects of DIME (Diplomatic, Intelligence, Military, and Economic) and national power? What are the impacts of AI created deep fakes? AI automating image recognition of satellite data? AI creating optimal concepts of operations? AI-tuned cyber-attacks? AI cyber security? AI smart/predicative maintenance? etc. Where will we first see its impacts? What will our response be?</p> <h3>Class Discussion Questions<em>:</em><em> </em>(<a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/lecture-5-technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition">Slide 15</a>)</h3> <ul> <li>How would you characterize the strengths and weaknesses of the U.S.’s AI Strategy?</li> <li>How would you advise the Biden Administration to pursue an AI Strategy?</li> </ul> <p>Next week: <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/16/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-6-unmanned-systems-and-autonomy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>Autonomy and Unmanned Systems</em></a></p> <h3><strong>Lessons Learned</strong></h3> <blockquote> <ul> <li>AI and machine learning is a critical technology that will impact all aspects of DIME (Diplomatic, Intelligence, Military, and Economic) and national power</li> <li>Most of the advanced work in AI/ML is happening in commercial companies and universities not the DoD <ul> <li>China and Russia have made AI and machine learning national priorities</li> </ul> </li> <li>The <a href="https://www.diu.mil/">Defense Innovation Unit</a> (DIU) exists to find and then funnel commercial technology like AI/ML into the DoD</li> <li>The <a href="https://www.ai.mil/index.html">Joint Artificial Intelligence Center</a> (JAIC) is the focal point of the Department of Defense AI strategy</li> </ul> </blockquote> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27781" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/gkc-logo/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?fit=435%2C79&ssl=1" data-orig-size="435,79" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="GKC Logo" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?fit=300%2C54&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?fit=435%2C79&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-27781" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?resize=435%2C79&ssl=1" alt="" width="435" height="79" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?w=435&ssl=1 435w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?resize=300%2C54&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?resize=150%2C27&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 435px) 100vw, 435px" /></a><br /> <iframe loading="lazy" width="100%" height="91" scrolling="no" frameborder="no" src="https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F1181410768&width=false&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&visual=false&show_comments=false&color=false&show_user=false&show_reposts=false"></iframe></p> <div class="sharedaddy sd-sharing-enabled"><div class="robots-nocontent sd-block sd-social sd-social-official sd-sharing"><h3 class="sd-title">Share this:</h3><div class="sd-content"><ul><li class="share-print"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="" class="share-print sd-button" href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/09/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-5-ai-and-machine-learning/" target="_blank" title="Click to print" ><span>Print</span></a></li><li class="share-email"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="" class="share-email sd-button" href="mailto:?subject=%5BShared%20Post%5D%20Technology%2C%20Innovation%2C%20and%20Great%20Power%20Competition%20%E2%80%93%20Class%205%20%E2%80%93%20AI%20and%20Machine%20Learning&body=https%3A%2F%2Fsteveblank.com%2F2021%2F11%2F09%2Ftechnology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-5-ai-and-machine-learning%2F&share=email" target="_blank" title="Click to email a link to a friend" data-email-share-error-title="Do you have email set up?" data-email-share-error-text="If you're having problems sharing via email, you might not have email set up for your browser. 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Use Jobs-To-Be-Done as the Front End of Customer Discovery</a></h2> <div class="postinfo"> Posted on <span class="postdate">November 4, 2021</span> by steve blank </div> <div class="entry"> <p>Modern entrepreneurship began at the turn of the 21<sup>st</sup> century with the observation that <em>startups aren’t smaller versions of large companies</em> – large <em>companies</em> at their core <em>execute</em> known business models, while <em>startups search</em> for scalable business models. <a href="https://hbr.org/2013/05/why-the-lean-start-up-changes-everything" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lean Methodology</a> consists of three tools designed for entrepreneurs building new ventures:</p> <ul> <li>The <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Business-Model-Generation-Visionaries-Challengers/dp/0470876417" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Model Canvas</a> – to write down all the hypotheses about a new business;</li> <li><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Four-Steps-Epiphany-Steve-Blank/dp/0989200507" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Customer Development</a> – a process for testing those hypotheses outside the building;</li> <li><a href="https://www.infoworld.com/article/3237508/what-is-agile-methodology-modern-software-development-explained.html?page=2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Agile Engineering</a> – to rapidly build minimal viable products to test product/market fit.</li> </ul> <p>These tools tell you <em>how</em><em> </em>to rapidly find product/market fit inside a market, and how to pivot when your hypotheses are incorrect. However, they don’t help you figure out <em>where to start the search </em>for your new business.</p> <p><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/tonyulwick/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Anthony Ulwick</a> and <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/fmthayer/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ted Thayer</a> of <a href="https://strategyn.com/?utm_source=Steve+Blank&utm_medium=Blog&utm_campaign=lean+startup" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Strategyn</a> have a set of unique and valuable insights:</p> <ul> <li>Rather than defining markets as existing, adjacent or new markets – or by verticals, technology, demographics, et al. all markets can be described by <em>what job the user wants to get done</em></li> <li>Their <em>Jobs-to-be-Done</em> <em>Market Definition Canvas</em> make the Lean Startup methodology even better by finding and defining a market up front. Here’s their description of why and how.</li> </ul> <hr /> <p><strong>Problem – Lean Doesn’t Have a Market Definition Step<br /> </strong><a href="https://hbr.org/2013/05/why-the-lean-start-up-changes-everything" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Lean Startup methodology</a> asks innovators to interview potential customers within their “market” to discover the customer’s unmet needs and establish a product/market fit. Given the number of interviews to get meaningful data, this can take months.</p> <p>As innovators deepen their understanding of the customer, they may pivot their product concept, target a different vertical, demographic, or customer activity, or incorporate a different technology into their solution.</p> <p>Some innovators define markets around a product, e.g. the vacuum cleaner market or the espresso maker market. Others define markets around verticals, e.g. the financial services market or the healthcare market. Or defined around demographics (the people over 45 market), technologies (the brain sensor market), customer activities (the fitness market), and product portfolios (the heavy equipment market).</p> <p>Here’s the consequence: Depending on how founders originally define their market, making one or more of these changes can inadvertently alter the original market definition, which in turn changes the “market” they are targeting and invalidates the customer needs they have captured.</p> <p>This creates a recursive process in which the team is simultaneously iterating on the market definition, customer needs, and the value proposition, with no logical way to exit. This circular loop can cause them to churn, pivot, and fail.</p> <p>Startups would have a greater chance of success if founders could avoid iterating the market they are targeting while at the same time trying to establish product/market fit.</p> <p><em>In most cases, innovators don’t create markets; they create products to serve markets</em>. Thus, the market must be defined and validated in the innovation equation before moving to needs discovery and product definition.</p> <p><strong>What’s Missing?<br /> </strong>What missing is a process for defining a market that reduces uncertainty, reduces iteration in the effort to establish a product/market fit, and aligns the team around the business objectives and the results.</p> <p>We’ve spent a good number of years asking ourselves what constitutes the “perfect” market definition. What we have concluded is that a market should be defined in such a way that…</p> <ul> <li>The market definition becomes a constant in the product/market fit equation, not a variable. It does not change as the study of that market unfolds.</li> <li>It is stable over time. It does not go away when different solutions or technologies come along, thus making it a valid long-term focal point for value creation.</li> <li>It is unique from any other market, making it distinguishable and unambiguous.</li> <li>It does not assume a product or a solution. Rather, it is defined in problem space.</li> <li>It indicates who the targets are for value creation—making it clear which group of people to focus on.</li> <li>It makes the discovery of customer needs quicker, more effective, and less costly.</li> <li>It reveals all sources of competition, making disruption and other surprises less likely.</li> <li>It is relevant to and aligns the entire organization, e.g., sales, marketing, development, etc.</li> </ul> <p>Given this set of characteristics, how should a market be defined?</p> <p><strong>How should a market be defined?<br /> </strong>It’s worth remembering that people buy products and services to get a “job” done. A job is defined as a task people are trying to accomplish, a goal or objective they are trying to achieve, a problem they are trying to resolve, something they are trying to avoid, or anything else they are trying to accomplish. <a href="https://strategyn.com/jobs-to-be-done?utm_source=Steve+Blank&utm_medium=Blog&utm_campaign=lean+startup" target="_blank" rel="noopener">More about Jobs-to-be-Done Theory here</a>.</p> <p>When looking at a market through the Jobs-to-be-Done lens, a market is best defined as: <em>a group of people and the job they are trying to get done.</em></p> <p>For example, parents (a group of people) who are trying to “pass on life lessons to children” (a job-to-be-done) constitute a market. As do surgeons (a group of people) who are trying to “repair a torn rotator cuff” (a job-to-be-done), or clinicians (a group of people) who are trying to “diagnose the cause of a patient’s sleep disorder” (a job-to-be-done).</p> <p>When defining markets with a jobs-to-be-done lens, thousands of unique markets exist. They are stable over time, focus on what people are trying to accomplish rather than solutions, offer a focal point for analysis, and form a foundation for deeply understanding customer needs. <a href="http://strategyn.com/outcome-driven-innovation-process/customer-needs/?utm_source=steve+blank&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=lean+startup" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Learn about needs through this lens here</a>.</p> <p>Because the market is defined using “Jobs-to-be-Done” before engaging in the first step of the Lean Startup methodology, the defined market will not change as customer discovery and validation of that market unfolds. This cuts back on the number of iterations and pivots.</p> <p><strong>Big idea – Even New and Disruptive Markets can all be viewed as “Jobs-to-be-Done”<br /> </strong>How does “Jobs-to-be-Done” work in new and disruptive markets? For example, people often talk about the cryptocurrency market as a new market, but is it really? It depends how you define “market.”</p> <p>If you choose to define a market around a new product or a new technology, then, by definition, the “cryptocurrency market” would be considered new. But if you define the same market through a jobs-to-be-done lens, the story is very different, as consumers (a group of people) have for centuries been trying to intermediate the storage and exchange of value over time (the job-to-be-done).</p> <p>When looking through a jobs-to-be-done lens, cryptocurrency is simply a new offering in a pre-existing market. Similarly, Uber, Netflix, electronic evidence discovery, cloud computing, smartphones, online learning, Airbnb, Spotify, Google Maps and many other products considered disruptions are in fact new offerings in pre-existing markets.</p> <p>Why does this matter? When conducting needs discovery, potential customers struggle to articulate needs for a product that does not yet exist. But when you ask them about their job-to-be-done, customers can state with precision their needs associated with getting the job done better, making needs discovery faster and more effective.</p> <p>To help you define your market through this lens, we have created the Jobs-to-be-Done Market Definition Canvas. We want to make this canvas available to everyone who has embraced the Lean Startup methodology and want to take it to the next level.</p> <p>Instructions for using the canvas are included below, and the canvas can be downloaded <a href="https://www2.strategyn.com/jtbdmarketdefinitioncanvas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</p> <h3>THE JOBS-TO-BE-DONE MARKET DEFINITION CANVAS</h3> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Strategyn_JTBD-Market-Definition_Canvas_2021_Instructional_11.5.21.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27972" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/strategyn_jtbd-market-definition_canvas_2021_instructional_11-5-21/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Strategyn_JTBD-Market-Definition_Canvas_2021_Instructional_11.5.21.jpg?fit=2448%2C1224&ssl=1" data-orig-size="2448,1224" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Strategyn_JTBD-Market-Definition_Canvas_2021_Instructional_11.5.21" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Strategyn_JTBD-Market-Definition_Canvas_2021_Instructional_11.5.21.jpg?fit=300%2C150&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Strategyn_JTBD-Market-Definition_Canvas_2021_Instructional_11.5.21.jpg?fit=468%2C234&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-27972" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Strategyn_JTBD-Market-Definition_Canvas_2021_Instructional_11.5.21.jpg?resize=468%2C234&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="234" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Strategyn_JTBD-Market-Definition_Canvas_2021_Instructional_11.5.21.jpg?resize=1024%2C512&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Strategyn_JTBD-Market-Definition_Canvas_2021_Instructional_11.5.21.jpg?resize=300%2C150&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Strategyn_JTBD-Market-Definition_Canvas_2021_Instructional_11.5.21.jpg?resize=150%2C75&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Strategyn_JTBD-Market-Definition_Canvas_2021_Instructional_11.5.21.jpg?resize=768%2C384&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Strategyn_JTBD-Market-Definition_Canvas_2021_Instructional_11.5.21.jpg?resize=1536%2C768&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Strategyn_JTBD-Market-Definition_Canvas_2021_Instructional_11.5.21.jpg?resize=2048%2C1024&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Strategyn_JTBD-Market-Definition_Canvas_2021_Instructional_11.5.21.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Strategyn_JTBD-Market-Definition_Canvas_2021_Instructional_11.5.21.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a>If you can’t see the canvas click <a href="https://steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Strategyn_JTBD-Market-Definition_Canvas_2021_Instructional_11.5.21.jpg" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</p> <p>The Jobs-to-be-Done Market Definition Canvas is designed to help you define the market you are in or have chosen to serve as [a group of people] + [the job they are trying to get done].</p> <p>The Market Definition Canvas works for both B2C and B2B applications. While it is optimized to define single-sided markets, it can be used twice to define both sides of a double-sided market. For component manufacturers who sell to OEMs or who are at the top of a long distribution chain, a canvas can be completed for each constituent in the distribution chain, including the end-user, as each constituent has its own unique job to get done.</p> <p><a href="https://strategyn.com/webinar-define-your-market-using-jtbd/?utm_source=Steve+Blank&utm_medium=Blog&utm_campaign=lean+startup" target="_blank" rel="noopener">See this webinar with Tony Ulwick to learn more about this canvas.</a></p> <h3><strong>8 steps to define Jobs to Be Done</strong></h3> <h3>1. Start with a traditional market definition</h3> <p><strong><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-1-JTBD.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27919" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/step-1-jtbd/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-1-JTBD.jpg?fit=67%2C36&ssl=1" data-orig-size="67,36" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Step 1 JTBD" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-1-JTBD.jpg?fit=67%2C36&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-1-JTBD.jpg?fit=67%2C36&ssl=1" class="alignleft wp-image-27919" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-1-JTBD.jpg?resize=101%2C54&ssl=1" alt="" width="101" height="54" /></a>What is the product/service/idea you seek to innovate?<br /> </strong>The exercise starts with something you’re familiar with—a product focus. We ask, “What is the product, service, or idea you’re looking to innovate around?” We use this as the grounding point, as the subsequent steps will help transition you from a product view to a jobs-to-be-done view of your market.</p> <h3>2. Job executor determination</h3> <p><strong>Who’s using the product to get a job done?<br /> </strong><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-JTBD.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27920" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/step-jtbd/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-JTBD.jpg?fit=69%2C37&ssl=1" data-orig-size="69,37" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Step JTBD" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-JTBD.jpg?fit=69%2C37&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-JTBD.jpg?fit=69%2C37&ssl=1" class="alignleft wp-image-27920" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-JTBD.jpg?resize=101%2C54&ssl=1" alt="" width="101" height="54" /></a>The focus on “jobs to be done” begins with this step. Ask, who’s using your product (or who would use your product once released) to get a job done? The goal is to reveal the diverse set of potential product users. So, list all the categories of people who use or would use the product to extract its value. Keep in mind; we are focused here on the job executors. Do not list out influencers, economic buyers, people who support the product throughout its lifecycle, or other customer types, just job executors.</p> <p>For example, Bosch used this approach when trying to enter the North American circular saw market (yes, they began with a product-based market definition in mind). They concluded that finish carpenters, framers, roofers, general contractors, electricians, and plumbers use circular saws. Notice they did not use the formal job titles of the job executors; instead, they listed the categories of people who use circular saws.</p> <h3>3. Abstracted job executor</h3> <p><strong>What overarching term can classify all the categories of people using the product to get a job done?<br /> </strong><strong><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-3-JTBD.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27921" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/step-3-jtbd/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-3-JTBD.jpg?fit=69%2C37&ssl=1" data-orig-size="69,37" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Step 3 JTBD" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-3-JTBD.jpg?fit=69%2C37&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-3-JTBD.jpg?fit=69%2C37&ssl=1" class="alignleft wp-image-27921" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-3-JTBD.jpg?resize=101%2C54&ssl=1" alt="" width="101" height="54" /></a></strong>Next, define the one overarching term that can be used to classify or describe all people using, or potentially using, your product these people as a single group. Remember, we are defining a market as a group of people + the job-to-be-done. When defining the group of people, try not to use an actual job title. Instead, look for an all-inclusive term that encapsulates all job executors, usually a higher-level, generic term.</p> <p>The Bosch team, for example, abstracted roofers, framers, plumbers, finish carpenters, etc., into a higher-level category using the term “tradespeople.” In other words, the “group of people” using circular saws was conveniently referred to as tradespeople.</p> <p>For consumer product goods, the job executors are often referred to simply as “consumers.”</p> <h3>4. Job executor</h3> <p><strong>The group of people (job executor) is defined as:<br /> </strong><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Step-4-JTBD.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27966" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/step-4-jtbd/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Step-4-JTBD.jpg?fit=69%2C36&ssl=1" data-orig-size="69,36" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Step 4 JTBD" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Step-4-JTBD.jpg?fit=69%2C36&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Step-4-JTBD.jpg?fit=69%2C36&ssl=1" class="alignleft wp-image-27966" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Step-4-JTBD.jpg?resize=101%2C53&ssl=1" alt="" width="101" height="53" /></a>You may have come up with more than one way to describe the “group of people.” Choose a label that fits all types of people using the product, service, or idea you have in mind. For example, you may choose the term surgeons over cardiac surgeons, or tradespeople over tradesmen to be more inclusive. Other examples include educators over teachers, accountants over tax preparers, or consumers over adults.</p> <p>It is important to define the “group of people” before defining the job-to-be-done, as you will be interviewing representatives of the group to determine, from them alone, the way they define the job they are trying to get done.</p> <h3>5. Function of the product</h3> <p><strong>What “job” does the product/service/idea you want to innovate help the job executor accomplish?<br /> </strong><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/step-5-JTBD.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27925" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/step-5-jtbd/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/step-5-JTBD.jpg?fit=69%2C37&ssl=1" data-orig-size="69,37" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="step 5 JTBD" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/step-5-JTBD.jpg?fit=69%2C37&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/step-5-JTBD.jpg?fit=69%2C37&ssl=1" class="alignleft wp-image-27925" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/step-5-JTBD.jpg?resize=101%2C54&ssl=1" alt="" width="101" height="54" /></a>Products don’t have jobs-to-be-done; people do. But to uncover the targeted group’s job-to-be-done, it is often helpful to start by understanding what function/job the product you have in mind performs.</p> <p>Work with your product team, or preferably use customer discovery to go directly to the “group” of people (defined in step 4) and ask: What does/will the product or service we have in mind help you accomplish from a functional perspective? Collect and cull the responses into a single statement according to this formula:</p> <p>The product will help the group of people [verb] + [object of the verb] + [contextual clarifier (optional)].</p> <p>For example, a kettle may be used to “heat + water + to the desired temperature,” or a dental drill may be used to “contour + the shape + of a tooth.”</p> <p>Keep in mind; this <em>isn’t</em> the customer’s job-to-be-done—it’s the function or the job that the product gets done, which is often only part of the job the customer is trying to get done. For example, while people may use a kettle to “heat water to the desired temperature,” the overall job they are trying to get done may be to “prepare a hot beverage for consumption.”</p> <p>The goal of the market definition canvas is to help innovators uncover the job-to-be-done as <em>perceived by the customer</em>, not the product developer.</p> <h3>6. Other products used and their functions</h3> <p><strong>What other products do people use in conjunction with the product?<br /> </strong><strong>What “job” does each of the other products get done?<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-6-JTBD.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27926" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/step-6-jtbd/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-6-JTBD.jpg?fit=69%2C36&ssl=1" data-orig-size="69,36" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Step 6 JTBD" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-6-JTBD.jpg?fit=69%2C36&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-6-JTBD.jpg?fit=69%2C36&ssl=1" class="alignleft wp-image-27926" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-6-JTBD.jpg?resize=101%2C53&ssl=1" alt="" width="101" height="53" /></a></strong>To get a feel for the entire job your customer is trying to get done, ask them what other products they use immediately before, while, and immediately after using your product/service.</p> <p>For example, when tradespeople use a circular saw to “cut wood,” what other products are they using in conjunction with a circular saw? Perhaps they are also using a T-square, a measuring tape, sandpaper, and (or) a pencil.</p> <p>List the products they use in conjunction with the one you have in mind.</p> <p>Next, document the functions / jobs that each of these other products gets done for the group of people. Use the same format used previously: [verb] + [object of the verb] + [contextual clarifier (optional)].</p> <p>The Bosch team, for example, determined through customer interviews that while the function of the circular saw was to “cut wood” (a job statement), that tradespeople were using a T-square to ensure they “make a cut in a straight line” (a job statement), and that they were using a pencil to “mark the cut path” (a job statement).</p> <h3>7. Abstracted job statement</h3> <p><strong>When looking at the market through the job executor’s eyes, what core functional job do they say they are trying to get done?<br /> </strong><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-7-JTBD.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27930" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/step-7-jtbd/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-7-JTBD.jpg?fit=70%2C37&ssl=1" data-orig-size="70,37" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Step 7 JTBD" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-7-JTBD.jpg?fit=70%2C37&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-7-JTBD.jpg?fit=70%2C37&ssl=1" class="alignleft wp-image-27930" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-7-JTBD.jpg?resize=101%2C53&ssl=1" alt="" width="101" height="53" /></a>Putting all the pieces together helps reveal the customer’s ultimate job-to-be-done at the right level of abstraction. Assume your product is getting part of a job done. Assume people are using these other products to complete the entire job-to-be-done.</p> <p>You want to define your customer’s job-to-be-done in a way that includes your product’s function (job) and rationalizes why customers are using all these other products as they cobble together a complete solution. The Bosch team, for example, determined that tradespeople are using a circular saw along with other products so they can “cut wood in a straight line” (the abstracted job statement).</p> <p>A financial services firm determined that accountants use tax preparation software in conjunction with other products so they can “formulate and execute a tax strategy for a client” (the abstracted job statement).</p> <p>Defining the market at this level of abstraction allows you to evolve your product over time to help customers get more, and eventually all, of their job done—preferably before competitors do. It offers the innovator a built-in path and vision for growth—tied directly to what customers are trying to accomplish.</p> <p>Remember, complete steps 5-8 employing customer interviews. Make sure you encapsulate the job of the product you have in mind in the abstracted job statement. If the job of the product is not represented, you have abstracted the job statement to too high a level. Preventing you from capturing customer need statements that will help inform the improvement of the product you have in mind.</p> <h3>8. Customer’s Job-to-be-Done</h3> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-8-JBTD.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27932" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/step-8-jbtd/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-8-JBTD.jpg?fit=69%2C36&ssl=1" data-orig-size="69,36" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Step 8 JBTD" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-8-JBTD.jpg?fit=69%2C36&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-8-JBTD.jpg?fit=69%2C36&ssl=1" class="alignleft wp-image-27932" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Step-8-JBTD.jpg?resize=101%2C53&ssl=1" alt="" width="101" height="53" /></a>Now that you have your customer’s job, you can document that job in this box. If you have multiple versions of the job statement, work with job executors to gain consensus on the best version.</p> <p>With this, the Market Definition Canvas is completed, and your market is defined for you through a jobs-to-be-done lens. Your market = Group of people (Step 4) + Job-to-be-Done (Step 8)</p> <p>Now you can iterate quickly during your lean innovation process—and more reliably succeed in your market.</p> <p><strong>To learn more about Jobs Theory and Outcome-Driven Innovation, check out the following resources:</strong></p> <ul> <li><a href="https://jobs-to-be-done-book.com/?utm_source=steve+blank&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=lean+startup" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Free E-book and audiobook: Jobs-to-be-Done: Theory to Practice</a></li> <li><a href="https://strategyn.com/jobs-to-be-done/jobs-to-be-done-playbook/?utm_source=steve+blank&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=lean+startup" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Official Jobs-to-be-Done Playbook</a></li> <li><a href="https://strategyn.com/jobs-to-be-done/?utm_source=steve+blank&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=lean+startup" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jobs-to-be-Done Theory: A Framework for Understanding Customer Needs</a></li> <li><a href="https://strategyn.com/webinar-5-growth-strategies-to-transform-your-business/?utm_source=steve+blank&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=lean+startup" target="_blank" rel="noopener">5 Growth Strategies to Transform Your Business</a></li> </ul> <iframe loading="lazy" width="100%" height="91" scrolling="no" frameborder="no" src="https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F1161599557&width=false&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&visual=false&show_comments=false&color=false&show_user=false&show_reposts=false"></iframe> <div class="sharedaddy sd-sharing-enabled"><div class="robots-nocontent sd-block sd-social sd-social-official sd-sharing"><h3 class="sd-title">Share this:</h3><div class="sd-content"><ul><li class="share-print"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="" class="share-print sd-button" href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/04/market-definition-its-the-front-end-of-customer-discovery/" target="_blank" title="Click to print" ><span>Print</span></a></li><li class="share-email"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="" class="share-email sd-button" href="mailto:?subject=%5BShared%20Post%5D%20How%20to%20Find%20a%20Market%3F%20Use%20Jobs-To-Be-Done%20as%20the%20Front%20End%20of%20Customer%20Discovery&body=https%3A%2F%2Fsteveblank.com%2F2021%2F11%2F04%2Fmarket-definition-its-the-front-end-of-customer-discovery%2F&share=email" target="_blank" title="Click to email a link to a friend" data-email-share-error-title="Do you have email set up?" data-email-share-error-text="If you're having problems sharing via email, you might not have email set up for your browser. 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This “whole of government approach” is known by the acronym <a href="https://nwc.ndu.edu/Portals/71/Documents/Publications/NWC%20Primer%202020%20Final.pdf">DIME</a><u>-FIL.</u> And after two decades focused on counter terrorism, the U.S. is now engaged in great power competition with both China and Russia.</p> <p><a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/19/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-2/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In class 2</a> the class focused on China, the U.S.’s primary great power competitor. China is using all elements of national power: diplomacy (soft power, alliances, coercion), information/ intelligence (using its economic leverage over Hollywood, controlling the Covid narrative), its military might and economic strength (<a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative">Belt and Road Initiative</a>) as well as exploiting Western finance and technology. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/19/opinion/china-microchips.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China’s goal is to challenge and overturn the U.S.-led liberal international order</a> and replace it with a <a href="https://www.hoover.org/press-releases/hoover-institution-releases-essay-former-chinese-communist-party-insider-about">neo-totalitarian model</a>.</p> <p><a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/26/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-3/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The third class</a> focused on Russia, which is asserting itself as a great power challenger. We learned how Russia pursues security and economic interests in parallel with its ideological aims. At times, these objectives complement each other. At other times they clash, Putin’s desire to restore Russia into a great power once again leads to a foreign policy that is opposite the interests of the Russia people. As Putin himself has said, “The collapse of the Soviet Union was a major geopolitical disaster of the century,” and that quote offers a window to his worldview as he tries to remake Russia into a great power once again.”</p> <p>Having covered the elements of national power (<a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/13/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-1/">DIME-FIL</a>) and China and Russia, the class now shifts to the impact commercial technologies have on DIME-FIL. Today’s topic – <em>Semiconductors.</em></p> <p>Catch up with the class by reading our <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/09/21/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition/">intro to the class</a>, and summaries of <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/13/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-1/">Classes 1</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/19/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-2/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2</a> and <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/10/26/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-3/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">3</a>.</p> <hr /> <p><strong><em><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Lecture-4-cover-TIGPC.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27865" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/lecture-4-cover-tigpc/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Lecture-4-cover-TIGPC.jpg?fit=720%2C405&ssl=1" data-orig-size="720,405" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Lecture 4 cover TIGPC" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Lecture-4-cover-TIGPC.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Lecture-4-cover-TIGPC.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-27865" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Lecture-4-cover-TIGPC.jpg?resize=468%2C263&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="263" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Lecture-4-cover-TIGPC.jpg?w=720&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Lecture-4-cover-TIGPC.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Lecture-4-cover-TIGPC.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></em></strong></p> <p><strong><em>Class 4 Required Readings:</em></strong></p> <p><strong>Silicon Valley, the Military, and the Journey to the Fourth Industrial Revolution </strong></p> <ul> <li>Steve Blank, “<a href="https://steveblank.com/secret-history/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Secret History of Silicon Valley</a>” <em>Steve Blank</em>, November 20, 2008. [Please watch the video, review the slides and blog posts]</li> <li>Klaus Schwab, “<a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-means-and-how-to-respond/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Fourth Industrial Revolution: What it Means, how to Respond</a>” <em>World Economic Forum</em>, Jan. 14, 2016.</li> <li><em>Optional</em> Rebecca S. Lowen, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0520205413?ie=UTF8&tag=wwwsteveblank-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0520205413" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Creating the Cold War University</a> [Great book if you want to learn more about Stanford’s military-industrial complex origins. Not required for class.]<strong> </strong></li> </ul> <p><strong>Moore’s Law & the Global Semiconductor Industry </strong></p> <ul> <li>Lee Bell, “<a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/wired-explains-moores-law" target="_blank" rel="noopener">What is Moore’s Law? WIRED Explains the Theory that Defined the Tech Industry</a>” <em>WIRED</em>, Aug. 28, 2016.</li> <li>INTERACTIVE CHART “<a href="https://www.humanprogress.org/dataset/average-cost-of-hard-drive-storage-per-gigabyte/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Average Cost of Hard Drive Storage per Gigabyte 1980-2014” <em>Human Progress</em></a>.</li> <li>Steve Blank, “<a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/semiconductor-industry-tutorial" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chip Industry Tutorial</a>” <em>Stanford Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation</em>, September 2021.</li> <li>“<a href="http://www.fullertreacymoney.com/system/data/files/PDFs/2017/December/15th/OPCO%20semiconductor.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Semiconductors: Technology and Market Primer 10.0” <em>Oppenheimer</em></a>, Dec. 7, 2017</li> <li>James Timbie, “<a href="https://www.hoover.org/research/national-security-supply-chain-resilience" target="_blank" rel="noopener">National Security Supply Chain Resilience</a>” <em>The Hoover Institution</em>, Feb 5, 2021.</li> <li>Yan Nee Lee, “<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/16/2-charts-show-how-much-the-world-depends-on-taiwan-for-semiconductors.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2 Charts Show how Much the World Depends on Taiwan for Semiconductors</a>” <em>CNBC</em>, Mar. 15, 2021.</li> <li>Karen M. Sutter, “<a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46767" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China’s New Semiconductor Policies: Issues for Congress</a>” <em>Congressional Research Service</em>, Apr. 20, 2021.</li> <li>Video: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSNhk4TflKA" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The US Military’s Semiconductor Buying Problem</a>, <em>Asianometry</em></li> </ul> <p><strong>Semiconductor Case Study </strong></p> <ul> <li>Andrew Inkpen, “<a href="https://hbsp.harvard.edu/product/TB0625-PDF-ENG" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Global Semiconductor Industry</a>” <em>Thunderbird School of Management</em>, 2021. [It is imperative to prepare the case for class]</li> <li><a href="https://hbsp.harvard.edu/product/320045-PDF-ENG" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Harvard Business School TSMC Case Study</a></li> </ul> <p><strong><em>Reading Assignment Questions: </em></strong></p> <p><em>Pick one of the below questions and answer in approximately 100 words, based on the required readings. Please note that this assignment will be graded and count towards course participation. </em></p> <ol> <li>Describe the roles of Fred Terman, William Shockley, and Fairchild Semiconductor in the genesis of Silicon Valley. Who had a greater role in creating Silicon Valley, <a href="https://www.scaruffi.com/svhistory/silicon/terman.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fred Terman</a> or the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traitorous_eight" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Traitorous Eight</a>?</li> <li>How would you characterize China’s attempt to catch-up in the semiconductor industry? Do you think China can credibly catch TSMC (without an invasion of Taiwan)? Why or why not?</li> </ol> <p><strong><em>Discussion Questions </em></strong></p> <ol> <li>Put yourself in the shoes of Mark Liu, chairman of TSMC: Do you view China as more of a competitor or customer – and why?</li> <li>Now imagine you are the NSC Senior Director with responsibility for technology strategy. What’s the first thing the U.S. Gov’t should do regarding semiconductors?</li> </ol> <p><strong>Class 4: Guest Speaker<br /> </strong>Our guest speaker for our fourth class was <a href="https://www.stimson.org/ppl/john-hurley/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">John Hurley</a>, former Member of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President%27s_Intelligence_Advisory_Board" target="_blank" rel="noopener">President’s Intelligence Advisory Board,</a> an expert on semiconductors and supply chains, and former Captain, U.S. Army.</p> <p><strong>Lecture 4<br /> </strong><iframe src='https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/250455181' width='468' height='384' sandbox="allow-popups allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-presentation" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen></iframe></p> <p>If you can’t see the slides, click <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/lecture-4-technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition">here</a></p> <p>Slide 4. <strong>The critical role of semiconductors</strong> in great power competition. Both our commercial and military systems are dependent on semiconductors. China spends more on semiconductor imports than it does on oil. We framed the advances in technology as part of the 4th industrial revolution. Slides 5-7. We reminded the students of <a href="https://steveblank.com/secret-history/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the role the DoD and IC played at Stanford</a> turning it into an outward-facing university, which kick-started technology entrepreneurship here in Silicon Valley.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Raj-Semi-Lecture.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27889" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/raj-semi-lecture/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Raj-Semi-Lecture.jpg?fit=3316%2C1388&ssl=1" data-orig-size="3316,1388" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Raj Semi Lecture" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Raj-Semi-Lecture.jpg?fit=300%2C126&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Raj-Semi-Lecture.jpg?fit=468%2C196&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-27889" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Raj-Semi-Lecture.jpg?resize=468%2C196&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="196" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Raj-Semi-Lecture.jpg?resize=1024%2C429&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Raj-Semi-Lecture.jpg?resize=300%2C126&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Raj-Semi-Lecture.jpg?resize=150%2C63&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Raj-Semi-Lecture.jpg?resize=768%2C321&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Raj-Semi-Lecture.jpg?resize=1536%2C643&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Raj-Semi-Lecture.jpg?resize=2048%2C857&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Raj-Semi-Lecture.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Raj-Semi-Lecture.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p>Slides 9-11 <strong>Dual-use technology</strong>. For the first time in 75 years, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federally_funded_research_and_development_centers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">federal labs</a> and our <a href="https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/wordpress/2021/02/02/top-100-defense-contractors-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prime contractors</a> are no longer leading innovation in many critical technologies including AI, machine learning, autonomy, biotech, commercial access to space, etc. Rapid advances in these areas are now happening via commercial firms – many in China. This is a radical change in where advanced technology comes from. In the U.S., the government is painfully learning how to reorient its requirements and acquisition process to buy these commercial, off-the-shelf technologies. (Products that are sold commercially and to the DoD are called “dual-use.”)</p> <p>Slide 15. <strong>Semiconductor industry</strong>. We began a deep dive into semiconductors by drawing the map of the semiconductor industry (Slides 3-15 from <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/semiconductor-industry-tutorial" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this required reading</a>.) <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/semiconductor-industry-tutorial/7-Wafer_Fab_Equipment_WFE_Make">Five companies</a> provide the majority of the wafer fab equipment needed to make chips. <a href="https://time.com/6102879/semiconductor-chip-shortage-tsmc/">TSMC</a> is the leading fab for manufacturing logic chips. (Slides 32-33 from <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/semiconductor-industry-tutorial" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this required reading</a>.) Of the 29 new fabs starting construction in 2021-22, <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/semiconductor-industry-tutorial/22-29_New_Fabs_Starting_Construction" target="_blank" rel="noopener">over half are in China and Taiwan</a>.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Semi-Industry.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27891" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/semi-industry/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Semi-Industry.jpg?fit=751%2C436&ssl=1" data-orig-size="751,436" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Semi Industry" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Semi-Industry.jpg?fit=300%2C174&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Semi-Industry.jpg?fit=468%2C272&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-27891" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Semi-Industry.jpg?resize=468%2C272&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="272" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Semi-Industry.jpg?w=751&ssl=1 751w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Semi-Industry.jpg?resize=300%2C174&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Semi-Industry.jpg?resize=150%2C87&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a>Slide 16. <strong>TSMC Case</strong>. We took the class through the <a href="https://hbsp.harvard.edu/product/320045-PDF-ENG" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TSMC case study</a> and mapped out the roles and interests of TSMC, China, Intel, and the U.S. Slides 17-18. We discussed China’s drive for semiconductor independence, U.<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2f5fc6c9-ca2b-496c-9783-b47bf060769d" target="_blank" rel="noopener">S. export controls</a> on Huawei (<a href="https://www.cnet.com/tech/services-and-software/huawei-ban-timeline-detained-cfo-makes-deal-with-us-justice-department/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">why and its consequences,)</a> the various constituencies of a U.S. semiconductor policy (Commerce Department, DoD, U.S. chip makers, U.S. semi equipment suppliers, etc.), whether TSMC’s success makes Taiwan more or less secure, given China’s goals of reunification with Taiwan.</p> <p>Slide 19-20. <strong>Policy. </strong>How do decision makers formulate policy? Does it start by asking “What problem do we want to solve?” Using semiconductors as an example, is it China’s access to U.S. technology? Or is it China embedding this advanced U.S.-designed technology into their military systems? Or what happens to TSMC and Western access to advanced technology if China quarantines or invades Taiwan?</p> <p>How do policy makers select and narrow a problem? Is it based on the value the policy adds for identified stakeholders? Is it a personal passion/interest? Specifically for China and semiconductors, what are potential solution ideas? Export controls? Stronger <a href="https://www.iflr.com/article/b1tw30h39pml78/cfius-annual-report-reveals-a-maturing-agency-with-increased-agility" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CFIUS</a> regulations? How do you take into account stakeholder feedback (DoD, Commerce Department, commercial firms)? And once you create a policy, how do you effectively implement it?</p> <p>Slide 21 -23. <strong>Class midterm assignment</strong>: Assume you’re a policy maker. Write a 2,000-word policy memo that describes how a U.S. competitor is using a specific technology (semiconductors, AI, autonomy, cyber, etc.) to counter U.S. interests. Propose how the U.S. should respond.</p> <p>Slides 25- 32 <strong>Group Projects. </strong>We had several teams talk about their learnings from their out-of-the building interviews. <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/lecture-4-technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition/29-Team_4_Team_ShortCircuitHow_should" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Team ShortCircuit (Slide 29</a>) is working on how the U.S. should improve its ability to design and produce semiconductors, and develop and retain relevant talent. They heard from a professor that the ratio of Stanford students taking software versus hardware courses was 10-to-1 software, a complete reversal from decades ago. We discussed whether 1) that was true or just anecdotal 2) if true, was it the same in other research universities, 3) why it happened (software startups are getting funded at obscene valuations)? 4) and what kind of incentives and policies would be needed to change that, and 5) where in the value chain those might be most effective (students, venture capitalists, government, etc.)</p> <p>Next week: <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/11/09/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-class-5-ai-and-machine-learning/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning</em></a></p> <p><strong>Lessons Learned</strong></p> <blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductors are the oil of the 21<sup>st</sup> All economies run on them.</li> <li>Semiconductors are <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/semiconductor-industry-tutorial/39-Semiconductors_Are_Chinas_Biggest_Imports2020" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China’s biggest imports</a></li> <li>China’s roadmap for building an indigenous semiconductor industry and accelerating chip manufacturing is the<a href="https://members.wto.org/CRNAttachments/2014/SCMQ2/law47.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> National Integrated Circuit Plan</a> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.semiconductor-digest.com/2020/05/21/china-to-fall-far-short-of-its-made-in-china-2025-goal-for-ic-devices/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The goal</a> is to meet its local chip demand by 2030</li> </ul> </li> <li>The U.S. is dependent on <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-01-25/the-world-is-dangerously-dependent-on-taiwan-for-semiconductors" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TSMC</a>, located in Taiwan, for its most advanced logic chips <ul> <li>China claims Taiwan is a province of China</li> <li>TSMC will <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-says-construction-has-started-arizona-chip-factory-2021-06-01/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">build a fab in Arizona</a>, but it will represent only 2% of its capacity</li> </ul> </li> <li>What are U.S. policy makers’ options?</li> </ul> </blockquote> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27781" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/gkc-logo/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?fit=435%2C79&ssl=1" data-orig-size="435,79" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="GKC Logo" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?fit=300%2C54&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GKC-Logo.jpg?fit=435%2C79&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full 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