Mysteel周报：部分管厂价格上涨预计本周无缝管价格或小幅走强（4.26-5.6）-我的钢铁网

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style='color:#3861ab'>无缝管</a>厂价格小幅探涨，部分市场跟涨，截至5月6日全国28个主要城市无缝管均价环比上涨8元/吨。</p> <p>一、本周回顾</p> <p>【价格方面】</p> <p>无缝管价格：据mysteel盘点数据显示：截至5月6日全国28个主要城市108*4.5mm无缝管均价4788元/吨，周环比上涨8元/吨，五一节后部分市场无缝管价格上涨。</p> <p>原料方面：截至本周五，管坯价格涨跌不一，节日期间山东管坯价格上涨10元/吨，江苏管坯价格环比下跌10元/吨。</p> <p>表1：全国各城市无缝管价格（108*4.5mm）</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/06/b42fe2bfb55b4017a77d014882be911c.png" width="553" height="79" /></p> <p>管厂调价方面：据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>调研（34家样本无缝管厂），本周部分无缝管厂出厂价格上涨30-50元/吨。</p> <p>表2：无缝管厂挂牌价格调整</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/06/b3ffa5f006544355abd188256fe0c7de.png" width="554" height="690" /></p> <p>【利润方面】</p> <p>从无缝管利润表现来看，节后山东管厂理论利润收窄，江苏地区管厂利润基本与节前持平，以20#<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>热轧</a>，Ф108*4.5mm无缝管为例，山东地区样本企业无缝管厂利润为130元/吨，周环比减少30元/吨，江苏地区样本企业无缝管厂利润为380元/吨，较上周不变。</p> <p>图3：山东无缝管厂利润（单位：元/吨）</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/06/04da01f9bc894397949fdf94418be422.png" width="484" height="331" /></p> <p>图4：江苏无缝管厂利润（单位：元/吨）</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/06/922992b5c0684df694a1fd12d6c3c2df.png" width="494" height="351" /></p> <p>数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p>各地区评述：</p> <p>【华东地区】无缝管：本周原料管坯价格小幅上涨，山东管坯价格上涨10元/吨，江苏管坯价格上涨10-30元/吨，主流无缝管厂价格震荡运行，华东主流市场无缝管价格持稳运行。市场整体出货不及预期，黑色系期货本周震荡下行，市场交投氛围不佳，贸易商心态偏悲观。管厂方面，本周样本无缝管厂产量继续增加，厂库累积，贸易商补货积极性不佳，社会库存呈减少趋势。市场方面，市场需求改善程度有限，商家心态谨慎、按需补库为主。预计下周华东地区无缝管价格或继续弱势震荡运行。</p> <p>【华南地区】节后华南地区无缝管价格持稳运行。具体来看，无缝管108*4.5mm广州市场报4960元/吨，乐从市场报4910元/吨；广西市场报4850元/吨。原料方面，本周原料管坯价格震荡上调，山东管坯价格上涨20元/吨，江苏管坯价格上涨10-20元/吨。主流无缝管厂价格震荡趋强，管厂挺价意愿偏强，部分管厂上调20-50元/吨，管厂库存产量小幅增加，库存缓慢减少。市场方面，本周黑色系期货震荡偏强，华南市场情绪依旧偏谨慎，近期华南地区雨水较多，下游车辆进出受阻，市场成交冷清，市场需求相对疲软。叠加原料成本价格相对坚挺，成材支撑力度尚存，市场总体以降库出货为主，市场库存小幅下降，对后市持谨慎观望态度。综上所述，预计华南地区无缝管价格震荡盘整运行。</p> <p>【华中地区】五一假日方面，华中无缝管市场价格基本持稳运行，郑州市场108*4.5无缝管价格报4750元/吨，长沙市场108*4.5无缝管价格报4810元/吨，武汉市场108*4.5无缝管价格报4640元/吨。假日期间，市场主流管厂多正常生产，无检修情况。市场方面，市场贸易商多数于五月三号陆续开工，虽然节前市场补库操作较少，但社会库存仍然充足。需求方面，后续随着国债政策落地以及市场下游开工数加大，无缝管需求可能出现好转，但短期内市场供需矛盾仍然存在，商家情绪偏观望。综上所述，预计节后华中地区无缝管价格或震荡偏强运行。【东北地区】五一期间市场价格持稳运行，沈阳无缝管主流成交价108*4.5mm报4650元/吨，长春报4700元/吨，哈尔滨报4750元/吨。管厂方面，本地管厂有计划五月进行停产，计划影响产量2万吨左右。市场方面，节前市场成交稍有好转，但仍未达旺季水平，贸易商后续本地管厂资源报价较低，管厂为减轻库存压力，四月多次下调出厂价格，其余品牌价格因到货成本增加，价格有所上涨。经历四月贸易商持续降库操作，市场社会库存维持正常水平，节后，北方开工传统旺季，市场出货有好转可能，如市场出货维持旺季水平，管厂或有调整出厂价空间。总上所述，预计节后东北地区无缝管价格或稳中有升运行。</p> <p>【华北地区】节日期间华北地区无缝管价格暂稳，北京市场108*4.5mm报4810元/吨，天津市场报4720元/吨。五一节期间，多数下游客户休假，出货情况一般，今日上游原材料价格明显上涨，部分管厂上调价格，华北地区贸易商持稳观望，短期还是以出货为主。目前来看，近期原料价格走强，对于无缝管的支撑加大，市场客户心态转好，预计本周华北地区无缝管价格或小幅走强。</p> <p>【西南地区】节后西南地区无缝管价格持稳运行，成都市场108*4.5mm报4840元/吨，重庆报4880元/吨，昆明报4910元/吨，贵阳报4860元/吨。本周原料管坯价格继续上涨，成本端压力增大，管厂挺价意愿足。然西南地区无缝管成交情况平平，贸易商以出货为主，市场贸易商库存量有所下降，贸易商去库意愿强，下游采购积极性一般，需求相对疲软，对价格持续支撑力较弱。贸易商表示，在当下低需求的情况下，价格难有涨势，预计本周西南无缝管市场价格震荡盘整运行。</p> <p>【西北地区】节后管坯价格震荡偏强运行。山东管坯价格上涨20元/吨，江苏管坯价格上涨10-20元吨。主流无缝<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010109-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>钢管</a>厂多数仍以稳为主，个别城市小幅上涨；西北市场无缝管价格维稳。今日黑色系期货震荡偏强运行，近期黑色系期货价格波动幅度较大，商家多持观望态度，叠加临近五一，部分商家轮班放假，出货一般，节后开盘飘红，小幅带动积极情绪，但仍然保持谨慎，按需拿货。综合来看，预计下周西北无缝管价格或震荡偏强运行。</p> <p>二、下周预测</p> <p>【库存方面】</p> <p>根据mysteel研全国无缝管（123家）商家库存情况来看，本周全国无缝管社会库存74.35万吨，环比增加0.92万吨。据mysteel调研全国（33家）无缝管生产企业情况来看，厂内库存72.49万吨，周环比增加2.57万吨，月同比增加2.19万吨；原料库存33.32万吨，周环比减少1.41万吨，月同比增加0.79万吨。节后部分管厂或有检修减产情况，本周产量或继续减少。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/06/265b84414fad473e922f0e06392c22c2.png" width="554" height="304" /></p> <p>图5：全国无缝钢管社会库存变化（单位：万吨）</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/06/0305f9487baa408eb354bd06d58f66fa.png" width="554" height="221" /></p> <p>图6：样本生产企业库存变化（单位：万吨）</p> <p>数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p>【供应方面】</p> <p>国内无缝管厂周生产情况调查统计（32家生产企业，122条产线）本周产量34.24万吨，周环比减少0.02万吨，月同比增加2.31万吨；产能利用率74.39%，周环比下降0.04%，月同比上涨5.02%。近期原料价格走强，管厂利润或面临收缩，厂库消化较慢，预计下周管厂产量或继续回落。</p> <p>图7：样本管厂产能利用率、开工率变化情况</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/06/4e45f03c70e949f99388a48e68878c2c.png" width="554" height="236" /></p> <p>数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p>【成交方面】</p> <p>本周（4月第4周）Mysteel无缝管贸易企业成交量（样本企业共计123家）为14664吨，环比上周15260吨降596吨。4月日均成交同比去年增15.58%。本周成交量较上周小幅下降，节前商家补库意愿较弱，下游陆续放假，市场需求维持一般。全国区域来看：西南、西北地区成交呈现大幅增长，其他地区成交均呈现不同程度下降，华北地区降幅最为明显。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/06/4240274e0bcb4f6db20130cc3f4bb628.png" width="553" height="130" /></p> <p>【市场预测】</p> <p>从价格方面来看：</p> <p>节后黑色系期货上涨，原料价格相对偏强，山东管坯价格小幅上涨，主流管厂价格小幅探涨30-50，短期成本端有所支撑。</p> <p>从基本面来看：管厂库存维持中高位，管厂利润收窄，管厂供应或高位回落。近期价格走强，或推动市场成交放量，近期南方雨水天气较多，需求端整体运行偏弱。</p> <p>从心态方面来看：市场情绪面有所修复，期钢价格反弹，短期以谨慎乐观为主。</p> <p>综合来看，预计本周全国无缝管价格或小幅走强。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：胡盼 021-26094127 </br> 资讯监督：陈文花 021-26093859 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a 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Mysteel周报：部分管厂价格上涨 预计本周无缝管价格或小幅走强（4.26-5.6）-我的钢铁网

Mysteel周报：部分管厂价格上涨预计本周无缝管价格或小幅走强（4.26-5.6）-我的钢铁网