火爆！上海、苏州、杭州，创新高！

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class="breadcrumb"> 您当前的位置：<a href="/">证券时报</a> > <a href="/article/list/cj.html">产经</a> > <a href="javascript:;">正文</a> </div> <div class="clearfix"> <div class="column-810 l"> <div class="detail-title"> 火爆！上海、苏州、杭州，创新高！ </div> <div class="detail-info"> <span>来源：第一财经</span><span>作者：马一凡</span><span>2024-12-03 11:05</span> </div> <div class="detail-content-wrapper"> <div class="social-bar"> <div class="tt">点赞</div> <div class="like like-btn " data-id="1436285" data-url="/operation/like.html"></div> <div class="fav post-btn " data-id="1436285" data-url="/operation/collect.html" ></div> <a class="comment" href="#comment"></a> <div class="tt">分享</div> <div class="share-popup social-share" data-initialized="true" data-title="火爆！上海、苏州、杭州，创新高！" data-description="火爆！上海、苏州、杭州，创新高！" data-image="https://static-web.stcn.com/upload/wechat/20241203/674e74f2c9ab3.png" data-url="https://h5.stcn.com/pages/detail/detail?id=1436285&jump_type=reported_info" > <a class="social-share-icon icon-wechat wx"></a> <a class="social-share-icon icon-qzone qq"></a> <a class="social-share-icon icon-weibo wb"></a> </div> </div> <div class="detail-content"> <script src="https://static-web.stcn.com/static/scripts/echarts.min.js"></script><p>11月，上海二手房成交量超2.7万套，创下近44个月以来的新高，二手房上一次这么火，还要追溯到2021年3月。</p><p>不止是上海，苏州、杭州等“GDP两万亿级城市”也迎来市场回暖，二手房月成交量双双破万套，创下年内新高。</p><p>自9月底以来房地产重磅政策不断出台，市场情绪已经悄然转变，预期向好、信心回归，但市场也存在隐忧——热点城市10月、11月楼市成交数据“一浪高过一浪”之后，楼市后劲如何？政策效力会不会减退？</p><p>上海中原地产资深分析师卢文曦认为，楼市将延续一定的活跃度，12月的成交量或将保持稳定，但是“再创新高”的可能性不大；杭州贝壳研究院院长上官剑则认为，2024年杭州楼市将实现完美收官，成交量会维持在良好的水平。</p><p><strong>沪苏杭二手房成交量创新高<br/></strong></p><p>每到双休日，日均成交量就突破千套！这是11月份上海二手房市场的火爆情况。</p><p>上海市房地产交易中心主办的“网上房地产”数据显示，11月，上海二手房成交总套数达到了2.705万套，创下年内最高成交量纪录。11月最后一天（11月30日），上海二手房（含商业）单日成交量再次破千，成交1227套。此外，11月共有9个周末日，二手房成交量全部破千，日均成交1132套。</p><p>安居客上海的数据显示，上海11月二手房成交量创下近44个月以来的新高。二手房上一次这么火，还要追溯到2021年3月，那时开发商还没有大面积出险，核心城市还在频频拍出高溢价率宅地。</p><p>上海哪些区域二手房成交量增长最多？房地产经纪机构太平洋房屋的数据显示，二手房成交增长最多的四个区分别为嘉定区（123.8%）、松江区（97.9%）、闵行区（87.8%）和黄浦区（80.6%）。</p><p>“二手房月成交量终于破万套。”近日，这句话刷屏了不少杭州地产人的微信朋友圈。根据杭州贝壳研究院最新发布的数据，11月杭州十区二手网签10429套，创全年最高纪录，这一成交量也是2023年3月以来连续20个月的最高数值。</p><p>二手房月成交量突破一万套对杭州楼市来说意义重大，过去，杭州楼市的火热主要由新建商品房销售支撑，二手市场相比于新房市场则较为暗淡。综合杭州我爱我家及克而瑞数据，2023年，杭州市（不含临安）二手房共成交了7.43万套，月均成交量仅6191套，而新房月均成交量则超过8500套。</p><p>在成交量上涨的同时，杭州二手房价格也初步实现“止跌”，根据贝壳研究院数据，11月杭州二手住宅均价30296元/平米，环比10月价格（29411元/平米）环比提升3%。</p><p>与上海、杭州一样实现成交数据创新高的长三角城市还有苏州，而且苏州也实现了二手月成交量破万套。</p><p>根据苏州市人民政府新闻办公室官方微信号“苏州发布”公布的数据，11月苏州新房成交10277套（131万平方米），同比增长17.5%，环比增长27.6%；二手房网签10099套（108万平方米），环比增长15.6%。两项数据均达到今年以来单月成交量的最高点。</p><p>从链家在苏州服务的二手房网签量来看，这一数据10月同比增长59.77%、环比增长83.86%；11月同比增长92.56%、环比增长10.17%。</p><p>上海、苏州、杭州为长三角GDP前三强城市，扮演着经济领头羊的角色，在区域经济中，这些城市的楼市回暖也具有重要的信号意义。</p><p><strong>契税新政效果立竿见影<br/></strong></p><p>11月，一系列房地产减税政策出台，包括优化住房交易契税政策和增值税减免等。12月1日，《关于促进房地产市场平稳健康发展有关税收政策的公告》正式施行，住房交易环节契税优惠力度加大，让买房人大省一笔。</p><p>近日有网传消息称，由于房地产减税政策开始执行，上海、南京等多城的房产交易中心出现了“人潮拥挤”的情况。</p><p>消息是否属实？第一财经记者在新的住房交易契税政策落地的第一天——也就是12月1日，走访了上海市长宁区房产交易中心，看到该交易中心人流量适中，并未出现“人挤人”的情况。</p><p>“上海的房产交易中心都采取提前预约制，每天的号源数量都是有限制的，不太可能出现突然爆满的情况。”针对网络传言，一位资深中介经纪人告诉记者。</p><p>他表示，近段时间上海楼市成交量较高，也导致现在的预约号有些难抢，像11月30日和12月1日这两天属于周末，在部分交易中心需要提前半个月才能约上。</p><p>房地产减税政策对楼市的影响效果究竟如何？</p><p>上海中原地产资深分析师卢文曦认为，该政策对楼市成交的推动效果立竿见影，对市场信心和预期改变有很大帮助，政策的出台得以让成交量继续维持高位。</p><p>这波楼市成交潮的后劲大不大？卢文曦表示，市场热度的延续性比较可观，12月份将维持一定的活跃度，上海的月成交套数估计能稳定在2万套以上，但成交量再创新高的可能性不大了。</p><p>“市场情绪一旦起来了，就可能会形成趋势；价格方面，即便不会快速上涨，但只要成交量稳住了，价格就会有回旋的空间和余地。”卢文曦对第一财经表示。</p><p>杭州贝壳研究院院长上官剑认为，目前杭州的二手房市场确实处于比较热的状态，价格延续止跌的态势，局部区域有上涨现象，比如奥体、钱江世纪城等核心热门区域，申花、未来科技城等板块的价格反弹也较为明显，认为价格已经在底部的购房者逐渐增多，购房决策更快、更坚决，中介平均带看18次就能完成一组认购。在连续两个月的回暖后，杭州楼市的预期正悄然发生变化，新增挂牌量出现连续两个月的下降，抛售减少，房东的心态也在变得更加冷静。</p><p>上官剑表示，考虑到政策效力的衰退，在一批高性价比房源优先被去化以后，愿意接受更高价格的客户会减少，因此预判12月份二手房成交量相比较11月份会有小幅下滑，但是种种迹象表明，2024年楼市将实现完美收官，成交量会维持在良好的水平。</p> 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