Mysteel钢铁市场周度观察：大雪至，需求寒意罩钢价-我的钢铁网

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16px;">上周，黑色系商品市场走势先扬后抑：随着深冬临近，市场情绪对需求预期愈发谨慎，供需博弈趋于激烈。我们仍然维持月报中对钢价<strong>“</strong><strong>需求淡季特征强化，价格中枢缓慢下行</strong><strong>”</strong>的判断，主要基于以下三点原因：</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>1. 宏观预期推高市场价格，但会议后存预期落空风险</strong><strong><br /></strong>团队通过梳理往年年度经济会议内容（见表1）发现，此类会议通常以定调为主，很少公布具体政策细则。在以“托底”为核心的政策基调下，会议结束后市场预期可能难以进一步支撑价格上涨。此外，前期因预期驱动导致的价格快速上涨或将引发一定幅度的回调风险。</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>2. 钢材需求淡季走弱特征进一步显现</strong></span></p> <ol> <li><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>建材需求韧性减弱</strong>：12月上旬，部分地区赶工叠加少量新开工项目零星供货，短期内维持了建材需求的韧性。然而，随着大雪节气的到来和气温进一步下降的预期，工地项目将逐步收尾，建材需求难以避免下滑趋势。</span></li> <li><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>板材需求加速回落</strong>：根据Mysteel市场调研显示，制造业年前补库活动预计将在12月下旬前基本结束，板材需求或将迎来季节性加速下滑的拐点。平衡表测算显示，热卷小样本总库存可能在本周开始进入累库阶段。</span></li> </ol> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>3. 铁水缓降，黑色系价格承压趋弱</strong></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">当前<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-4262,7073-------------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁水产量</a>下滑速度依然偏缓：上周，Mysteel统计的247家钢厂日均铁水产量达232.6万吨，虽然已经连续三周下滑，但仍高于去年同期水平。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">尽管<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>螺纹钢</a>需求季节性减弱对铁水产量形成一定下行压力（见图1），但由于<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0307-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>钢坯</a>利润依然可观（模型测算当前华东方坯利润为76元/吨），部分铁水继续流向钢坯和<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010108-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>带钢</a>等仍具生产利润的品种。这表明，短期内铁水产量下滑速度或难以加快，预计年底前仍将保持同比高位水平。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">然而，根据Mysteel调研的12月钢厂排产计划显示，铁水已进入趋势性减产阶段。尤其是12月中下旬，部分钢厂将集中进行检修，这将进一步削弱<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----03-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>炉料</a>价格上涨的支撑逻辑，加大黑色系商品价格下行的压力。</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://mfs.mysteelcdn.com/group1/M00/DC/26/rBL632dSsFyAEtxiAACONYAYqc8568.png" /></strong></span></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">整体来看，随着钢材需求的季节性走弱拐点到来，黑色系商品价格回落的大趋势较为确定。但由于铁水从高位慢降和钢厂节前补库预期的托底作用，价格或难以深跌，继续呈现“上方有压力，下方有支撑”的区间波动。同时需注意，宏观会议期间各种消息扰动可能加大价格波动风险。</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="color: #023985; font-size: 16px;"><strong>表</strong><strong>1</strong><strong>：近三年中央经济工作会议内容整理汇总——该类会议以定调为主</strong></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://mfs.mysteelcdn.com/group1/M00/ED/D4/rBL64GdSsIiAFFnFAAQno4IhcUc555.png" /></span></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>螺纹：</strong>上周，由于重要会议临近，市场预期升温，叠加螺纹需求韧性犹存：上海螺纹*现货价格环比小幅上涨16元/吨，至3454元/吨。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>供应：产量连续三周下降，降幅有限</strong></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">根据根据Mysteel数据，上周小样本螺纹产量连续三周下滑，环比减少5.4万吨至222.5万吨，降幅与前一周持平。减量主要来自长流程炼钢（减少5.4万吨），原因包括唐山地区钢厂建材全面停产，以及山东、陕西、广西部分钢厂停产或转产其他品种。从区域看，除西南和西北外，其他地区产量均有所下降，其中华北和华东地区减量最为显著，分别减少3万吨和1.2万吨。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">尽管如此，高炉生产仍具微利（模型测算显示，江苏钢厂生产螺纹吨钢即期利润为26元/吨，环比扩大18元/吨），且厂库压力较小（北方钢厂受冬储政策推动，库存持续外发，上周螺纹厂库连续第六周下滑，降幅较前一周扩大0.7万吨）。在此背景下，钢厂减产或检修规模依然有限，短期内螺纹产量下滑速度预计难以显著加快。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>短流程：<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0306-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>废钢</a>价格托底，电炉减产空间有限</strong></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">近期，天气转冷导致废钢资源趋紧，同时钢厂原料储备需求对废钢价格形成支撑。上周螺废差进一步收窄，挤压电炉生产利润，整体生产积极性有所下降。然而，Mysteel调研显示，多数地区电炉谷电生产仍能维持微利，预计短期内电炉产量降幅有限。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>需求：赶工驱动，需求逆势小幅回升</strong></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">上周南方及华东地区降雨减少，重点工程施工进度加快。浙江、安徽、海南、四川等地均出现小规模赶工现象，部分新开工项目也在年底前加速前期建设进度，推动下游需求小幅回升。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">上周螺纹表需环比增加2.2万吨至227.6万吨：这是过去六年中螺纹需求在农历节前第八周首次逆势上扬，反映赶工驱动下的需求韧性。需求的回升直接推动社库去化：上周Mysteel小样本螺纹社库在连续五周累库后实现去库，环比减少0.8万吨至301.6万吨。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>风险提示：赶工需求有限，年底资金压力加大</strong></span></p> <ol> <li><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>赶工项目规模有限：</strong>当前赶工以续建项目为主，整体规模远不及往年，新开项目前期物资需求有限。</span></li> <li><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>年底资金压力显现：</strong>企业逐渐将重心转向回款，可能加速未来需求下滑。</span></li> </ol> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong> </strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">总体来看，螺纹产量维持在相对高位，使得季节性累库趋势难以扭转，累库压力逐步显现，钢价承压回调。<strong>然而，今年的累库过程呈现非线性特点，累库节奏有所反复，预计年底前螺纹总库存的累计增幅将低于去年同期水平，价格下跌空间相对有限。</strong>预计本周上海螺纹均价环比小幅下跌12元/吨，至3442元/吨。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>热卷：</strong>上周，会议预期走高带动黑色系价格上涨，上海热卷*现货周均价格环比上涨36元/吨，报3492元/吨。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>供应端：产量显著回升但后期增量空间有限</strong></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">由于华东及北方部分钢厂复产、转产热卷，以及个别钢厂订单量激增，上周热卷小样本开工率和产能利用率双双上升。热卷小样本周均产量环比大幅增加10.9万吨至317万吨，创下近四个月新高，并首次超过年内均值314万吨。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">尽管当前华北地区热卷生产吨钢利润超过百元，热卷产量仍有一定增长潜力，但钢厂排产计划显示，12月中下旬南方部分钢厂将进行年度检修，因此热卷后续增产空间有限，预计小样本周均产量难以突破320万吨。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>需求端：年前补库逐步结束，淡季效应显现</strong></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">Mysteel调研显示，制造业厂商的补库需求将在12月下旬前因购物节销售任务和补贴额度完成而陆续结束，热卷需求将步入季节性下滑通道。在供增需降格局下，热卷的基本面矛盾将进一步加剧。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">上周热卷小样本总库存去库量大幅放缓至0.1万吨（前值9.5万吨），其中社库去库量仅为0.04万吨，较前一周明显减弱。<strong>这表明，随着热卷供应回升，低产量带来的去库动能正在消退，库存压力逐渐显现，预计本周热卷将正式开启累库阶段。</strong></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">分区域看，除华南和华东两大主流消费地外，其余地区的热卷小样本社库均已累库。目前，华南-华东热卷价差扩大至约150元/吨。Mysteel调研显示，多家钢厂计划减少华东热卷发货量并转向华南市场。因此，华南地区或较华东提前进入累库状态，价格承压风险更大。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>价格展望：弱势震荡为主，跌幅有限</strong></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">尽管热卷供增需降的基本面矛盾加剧，价格下行压力加大，但考虑到现实需求的韧性（部分出口订单改善使上周小样本表需环比增加1.49万吨至317万吨），价格跌幅或较为有限。<strong>预计本周上海热卷现货价格环比下跌</strong><strong>12</strong><strong>元</strong><strong>/</strong><strong>吨，至</strong><strong>3480</strong><strong>元</strong><strong>/</strong><strong>吨，呈现弱势震荡格局。</strong></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>铁矿：</strong>上周，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968------0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>青岛港PB粉</a>周均价为789元/吨，较前一周上涨11元/吨。周初，市场受12月8日即将召开的政治局会议和经济工作会议消息提振，股市及黑色系商品价格显著上涨。但随着会议临近，市场对政策力度可能不及预期的担忧升温，价格随之走弱，与11月上旬对人大会议预期波动走势类似。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">随着工地用钢需求加速下降，钢厂已提前启动检修降产，时间早于此前预计的12月中下旬。但当前铁水减量仍偏温和，预计12月全国日均铁水产量较11月仅小幅减少4万吨，至230万吨左右。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">受此影响，港口<a href='https://tks.m.mysteel.com/datas/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石库存</a>届时或将结束持续去库态势，逐步转为小幅累库。尽管累库幅度可能有限，但这一变化标志着供需平衡的逐步松动。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">在铁矿基本面和政策预期双双趋弱的背景下，矿价短期内或以小幅下调为主。<strong>然而，由于产量下降幅度有限，加之春节前钢厂仍有补库需求，矿价仍存在阶段性（春节前）反弹的可能性。</strong>预计本周青岛港PB粉周均价将环比小幅下跌14元/吨，至775元/吨。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>双焦：</strong>上周港口准一级焦*均价1662元/吨，较前一周下跌22元/吨；临汾低硫主焦煤*均价1568元/吨，较前一周下跌28元/吨。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>焦煤：供应压力加大，价格创一年新低</strong></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">年底国内焦煤产量持续增长，矿山和口岸库存不断创新高，供给端压力显著。焦煤基本面持续恶化，推动价格进一步走弱，主力合约价格已跌至一年新低，市场对后续降价的预期仍浓厚。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0501-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>焦炭</a>：需求下滑，降价预期升温</strong></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">焦煤价格的持续走弱传导至焦炭市场，影响黑色系整体运行节奏。上周，焦炭价格结束了半个月的稳定态势，市场对第四轮降价的预期再度升温。</span></p> <ul type="disc"> <li><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>需求端</strong>：铁水产量逐步下滑，247家钢厂日均高炉铁水产量降至232万吨/天，原料需求同步减少。</span></li> <li><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>供给端</strong>：焦化厂利润仍有支撑（当前主产地即期利润约80元/吨），短期内焦炭价格下行压力加大。</span></li> <li><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>钢材市场</strong>：钢材需求走弱叠加价格震荡调整，进一步限制焦炭价格反弹空间。</span></li> </ul> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>冬储动向：补库有限，观望情绪浓厚</strong></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">虽然12月部分地区已启动煤焦冬储补库，但焦企采购仍以低价少量为主，观望情绪占据主导。<strong>近两周焦企厂内库存和可用天数虽有增加，但钢厂尚未开启大规模补库，预计需</strong><strong>1-2</strong><strong>周后（农历节奏）才可能出现明显补库迹象。</strong>短期煤焦上涨驱动暂未明朗，预计价格继续底部徘徊：</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">短期内，煤焦市场上涨驱动依然不足，价格继续在底部徘徊：预计本周港口准一级焦*均价下跌17元/吨至1645元/吨，临汾低硫主焦煤*均价下跌13元/吨至1555元/吨。</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">注：文中*号分别代表以下规格的价格（除废钢外均为含税价格）：</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">螺纹：上海螺纹 HRB400E20mm</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">热卷：上海 Q235B：4.75*1500*C.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">铁矿：青岛港 PB 粉（车板含税湿吨价格）</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">废钢：张家港重废（厚度≥6mm）</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">焦炭：日照港准一级出库</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 16px;">焦煤：临汾低硫主焦</span></p> <p> </p> <p> </p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：陈韫芝 18917343189 </br> 资讯监督：陈韫芝 18917343189 </br> 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-4649-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-4649-------------1.html" external class="more"> 查看更多<i class="arrow"></i> </a> </div> <div class="list-block recommend-list"> <ul> <li class="item"> <div class="news-title"> 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