Mysteel解读：看数据说废钢——钢材供需矛盾显现抑制废钢价格上行-我的钢铁网

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style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石</a>产量8410万吨，环比增加6%，同比增加1%。发运量为8450万吨，环比增加5%，同比增加1%。维持2024年力拓皮尔巴拉<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-6242-------------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石发运</a>量目标3.23-3.38亿吨不变。</p> <p>4.10月15日，河北、山东等地主流钢厂对<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0501-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>焦炭</a>采购价招标上调，涨幅为50-55元/吨。目前焦炭价格已累计上涨六轮，累计涨幅为300-330元/吨。</p> <p>天津市发布黄色预警解除信息，从10月15日10时起终止实施Ⅲ级应急响应措施。邯郸、衡水、石家庄、廊坊、保定相继解除重污染天气应急响应。</p> <p><strong>【价格方面】钢厂采废按需调整市场价格主稳个调</strong></p> <p>1、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0306-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>废钢</a>价格主稳个调</p> <p><img src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/10/17/f8a6645c879d47fb89f664551289293d.jpg" alt="" width="550" height="302" /></p> <p>截至10月15日，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>废钢绝对价格指数在2617.4元/吨，较上一交易日上涨7.6元/吨。</p> <p>2、主流市场价格涨跌互现</p> <p><img src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/10/17/9341329fc40f435c9199c904730d47c9.jpg" alt="" width="550" height="91" /></p> <p>16日全国45个主要市场废钢平均价2255元/吨，较上一交易日持稳运行。</p> <p>3、钢厂按需调整价格涨跌互现</p> <p><img src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/10/17/2ecd165c947347dfbf992713bf11eb90.jpg" alt="" width="550" height="288" /></p> <p>截至下午15：20，今日小纸条废钢调价以跌为主。25家钢厂下跌，跌幅10-40元/吨。5家钢厂上涨，涨幅20-80元/吨。</p> <p><strong>【到货方面】外围影响反复高位回调到货或增量</strong></p> <p><img src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/10/17/9968394b6fb146f89d05f22a46c25a0c.jpg" alt="" width="550" height="346" /></p> <p>16日全国300家长、短流程代表钢厂废钢库存总量516.26万吨，较昨日增1.35万吨，增0.26%；库存周转天9.2天，较昨日持平；日消耗总量51.36万吨，较昨日增0.27%；日到货总量52.71万吨，较昨日降0.36%。当前钢厂废钢到货稍有增量，库存呈小幅回升趋势，外围不确定因素较多，对市场的利好影响反复，持续上行动能不足，价格小幅回调的概率较大，在价格下行的背景下，业者出货意愿较强，预计短时钢厂到货或继续小幅增量。</p> <p><strong>【关联品种】钢价偏弱运行</strong></p> <p>【<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0311-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>进口矿</a>】短期或偏弱运行</p> <p>16日<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968------0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>唐山进口铁矿石现货</a>市场价格震荡偏弱，成交较少。卖盘方面，贸易商交投情绪一般，市场报价较上一工作日行情下跌7-10元/湿吨；买盘方面，钢厂采购谨慎，按需补库。截止目前，唐山区域粉块价差小幅收缩，现维持140-145元/湿吨附近，一方面唐山港口<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/price/p-10457-031104-1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>块矿</a>资源有所改善，后期可贸易块矿资源有所到港，对<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/price/p-10457-031104-1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>块矿价格</a>有一定的影响，所以近期块矿价格支撑性相对较弱；另一方面，近期焦炭价格提涨，且市场行情多以震荡为主，区域内钢厂采购愈加谨慎，对于<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/price/p-10489--1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>纽曼块</a>需求有所下降。所以综合来看，短期内，唐山区域内粉块价差或将维持现状。</p> <p>【焦炭】短期或暂稳运行</p> <p>16日焦炭价格偏强运行。上游方面，河北主流大矿生产基本稳定，库存情况基本维持正常水平。供应方面，焦企开工正常，订单正常发运，目前焦炭已经进行了六轮提涨，市场情绪有所好转，焦企利润有所修复。下游方面，近日钢价持续下跌，整体市场情绪回温；短期在供需格局下预计焦炭价格暂稳运行，但后续仍需继续关注宏观情绪，焦煤价格走势及钢厂利润情况对焦炭价格的影响。</p> <p>【<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0307-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>钢坯</a>】短期或稳中趋弱运行</p> <p>16日全国钢坯市场价格下跌10-20元/吨，主要受期螺下行影响，市场情绪偏弱，现货市场成交一般。其中唐山钢坯直发资源成交一般偏弱，钢坯仓储现货全天较昨下跌20元/吨，部分现货资源3260-3280元/吨，部分远月钢坯资源与现货价格持平，下游调坯成品材价格主流走弱10-30元/吨，低价成交为主。期螺震荡下行，市场情绪受影响，钢坯求端表现偏弱，调坯轧钢厂成品材出货不佳采坯节奏放缓，加之钢坯期现基差调整较小，贸易间交易一般，预计明日钢坯出厂价格或稳中趋弱调整。</p> <p>【<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>螺纹钢</a>】短期或窄幅震荡运行</p> <p>16日<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>建筑钢材</a>市场偏弱运行。近期依旧是持续的利好销售释放，但更多仍是对情绪的调动，真正落地按照当前测算基本是显现在年后。基本面来看，钢厂利润空间可观，生产积极性较高。需求在无资金的到位的当前，表现一般，更多还是依赖存量项目的托底。短期供需矛盾尚可，但后续可能会走向尖锐。低库存下的低压力使得市场有观望行为，但同时也带来了规格的部分短缺等问题。预计短期建筑钢材市场现货价格窄幅震荡运行为主。</p> <p><strong>核心观点：进入四季度宏观政策不断发力，刺激市场，推动经济持续回升向好。随着钢厂利润的好转，短时间内集中复产，叠加需求复苏偏弱，钢材供需矛盾加大，价格走势转弱，一定程度上抑制废钢价格表现，但考虑到废钢供应维持偏紧，预计短期内国内废钢价格窄幅下行。</strong></p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：曹浩 021-66896773 </br> 资讯监督：徐艳俊 021-26093191 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> 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Mysteel解读：看数据说废钢——钢材供需矛盾显现 抑制废钢价格上行-我的钢铁网

Mysteel解读：看数据说废钢——钢材供需矛盾显现抑制废钢价格上行-我的钢铁网