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'Trump's election could be a wake-up call for Europe, or accelerate its decline'
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The EU needs to come up with a response to the threat posed to the global economy by US protectionism and demonstrate that it is capable of turning this risk into an opportunity, argues Le Monde columnist Stéphane Lauer."> <meta property="og:site_name" content="Le Monde.fr"/> <meta property="og:locale" content="en_US"/> <meta property="og:title" content="'Trump's election could be a wake-up call for Europe, or accelerate its decline'"> <meta property="og:description" content="COLUMN. The EU needs to come up with a response to the threat posed to the global economy by US protectionism and demonstrate that it is capable of turning this risk into an opportunity, argues Le Monde columnist Stéphane Lauer."> <meta property="og:url" content="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2024/11/18/trump-s-election-could-be-a-wake-up-call-for-europe-or-accelerate-its-decline_6733183_23.html"> <meta property="og:type" content="article"/> <meta property="og:image" content="https://img.lemde.fr/2024/11/01/0/0/5500/3666/1440/960/60/0/482f1c3_2024-11-01t050452z-1001473280-rc25waavm1pz-rtrmadp-3-usa-election-trump.JPG"> <meta property="og:image:width" content="1440"/> <meta property="og:image:height" content="720"/> <meta property="og:image:type" content="image/jpeg"/> <meta property="og:article:section" content="Opinion"/> <meta property="og:article:content_tier" content="locked"/> <meta property="og:article:author" content="Le Monde"/> <meta property="og:article:published_time" content="2024-11-18T10:12:23+00:00"/> <meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image"> <meta name="twitter:site" content="@LeMonde_EN"> <meta property="twitter:url" content="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2024/11/18/trump-s-election-could-be-a-wake-up-call-for-europe-or-accelerate-its-decline_6733183_23.html"> <meta property="twitter:title" content="'Trump's election could be a wake-up call for Europe, or accelerate its decline'"> <meta property="twitter:description" content="COLUMN. 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class="sr-only">Subscribers only</span> </span><p class="article__title">Sonia Delaunay's fashion years</p> </a> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> </ul> </div> <div id="nav-mobile" class="Nav__mobile"></div> </nav> </div> <div class="lmd-banners js-lmd-banners"> <div class="forecast-retargeting-banner"></div> </div> <main role="main" class="main LeMondeMain main--free "> <div id="dfp-habillage" class="dfp-slot dfp__slot dfp__slot--habillage" data-format="habillage" aria-hidden="true"></div> <div class="dfp__container"><div id="banniere_haute" class="dfp-slot dfp__slot dfp__slot--banniere dfp__slot--banniere-haute adm-ad-loading" data-format="banniere_haute" aria-hidden="true"><div class="loader"></div></div></div> <section id="habillagepub" class="article article--single article--content article--restricted"> <section class="zone zone--article zone--article-premium zone--article-opinion old__zone"> <header class="article__header article__header--opinion "> <ul class="breadcrumb"> <li class="breadcrumb__parent breadcrumb__parent--after js-breadcrumb"> <a class="logo__opinion logo__opinion--article" href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/"> Opinion </a> </a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb__child--article js-breadcrumb"> <a class="logo__donald-trump logo__donald-trump--article" href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/donald-trump/"> Donald Trump </a> </li> </ul> <h1 class="article__title article__title--opinion">'Trump's election could be a wake-up call for Europe, or accelerate its decline'</h1> <section class="article__authors"> <h2 class="article__opinion-type"> <a class="article__section" href="/en/columns/">Column</a> </h2> <a class="article__author article__author-link" href="/en/signataires/stephane-lauer/"> <section class="article__author-description "> <p class="article__author-identity">Stéphane Lauer</p> <p class="article__author-job">Columnist</p> </section> </a> </section> <p class="article__desc article__desc--opinion">The EU needs to come up with a response to the threat posed to the global economy by US protectionism and demonstrate that it is capable of turning this risk into an opportunity, argues Le Monde columnist Stéphane Lauer.</p> <p class="meta meta__publisher meta__publisher--opinion"> <span class="meta__date">Published on November 18, 2024, at 11:12 am (Paris)</span> <span class="meta__reading-time meta__reading-time--opinion"> <span class="icon__reading-time icon__reading-time--opinion"></span> <span>3 min read</span> </span> <a class="meta__article-en-fr-url js-lang-switcher" href="/idees/article/2024/11/18/l-election-de-donald-trump-peut-provoquer-un-declic-salvateur-pour-l-europe-ou-bien-accelerer-son-declin_6399546_3232.html" hreflang="fr"> <span class="meta__article-en-fr-url-link">Lire en français</span> </a> </p> <div class="share-btns meta meta__social meta__social--opinion meta__social--lmi"> <div class="lmd-relative"> <button class="js-share-dropdown-toggler lmd-btn-icon lmd-btn-icon--tertiary 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class="meta__label-sub">Copy link</span> </button> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <p class="article__status article__status--opinion"> <span class="icon__premium"></span> Subscribers only</p> </header> <section class="article__wrapper article__content--restricted article__wrapper--premium"> <article class="article__content old__article-content-single"> <p class="article__paragraph "><span class="article__inner">D</span>onald Trump's election is set to tip the global economy into a period of protectionism unseen since the 1930s. The US president-elect has promised to intensify the policy pursued during his first term, applying tariffs of 10% or even 20% on all exports to the US, and even 60% on products from China.</p> <p class="article__paragraph ">The European Union (EU) will have to come up with a response to ward off this new threat. It comes at the worst possible time. Europe is lacking in leadership, its growth is sluggish and pressure from Chinese exports is increasingly intense. Aware of their weaknesses, the 27 EU member states have yet to find the means to survive in this hostile environment.</p> <div id="inread_top" class="dfp-slot dfp__slot dfp__inread dfp-unloaded" data-format="inread_top" aria-hidden="true"></div> <p class="article__paragraph ">Trump made protectionism his mantra throughout his campaign. "Tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary," he declared in October. According to him, these taxes have every virtue: they lower the trade deficit, bring factories back to US soil, and fill government coffers. But to believe it is a miracle cure is to fall for the long tradition of the snake oil salesmen of the Far West.</p> <section class="catcher catcher--favoris"> <div class="catcher__content"><span class="catcher__title catcher__title--hide">Read more</span><span class="catcher__desc"> <span class="icon__premium"><span class="sr-only">Subscribers only</span></span> <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/11/18/at-the-g20-summit-major-maneuvers-in-view-of-donald-trump-s-return-to-the-white-house_6733125_4.html" class="js-article-read-also catcher--favoris__link" data-premium="1">At the G20 summit, major maneuvers underway ahead of Trump's return to the White House</a> </span> </div> </section> <p class="article__paragraph ">In reality, tariffs play a limited role in a country's trade balance, which is primarily the result of a macroeconomic balance between savings on the one hand, and investment and consumption on the other.</p> <p class="article__paragraph ">In the US, growth in household and business spending, supported by a lax fiscal policy and unlimited debt, mechanically translates into increased imports, resulting in a negative trade balance. Without tackling the issue of "twin deficits" (budgetary and trade), imposing customs barriers is like emptying the sea with a teaspoon.</p> <h2 class="article__sub-title">Political success</h2> <p class="article__paragraph ">Trump unwittingly demonstrated this during his first term. The US trade deficit grew by a quarter, without boosting industrial employment. By becoming more expensive, imported components increased US production costs, as <a href="http://www.econ.ucla.edu/pfajgelbaum/RTP1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="Nouvelle fenêtre" >many studies</a> have shown. And, contrary to what the president-elect claims, the extra cost has not been paid for by exporters, but by US consumers.</p> <section class="catcher catcher--favoris"> <div class="catcher__content"><span class="catcher__title catcher__title--hide">Read more</span><span class="catcher__desc"> <span class="icon__premium"><span class="sr-only">Subscribers only</span></span> <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2024/11/18/wall-street-after-the-surge-the-trump-effect-fades_6733140_19.html" class="js-article-read-also catcher--favoris__link" data-premium="1">Wall Street: After the surge, the Trump effect is already fading</a> </span> </div> </section> <p class="article__paragraph ">If the first version of protectionism-à-la-Trump didn't succeed economically, it was a political success. His voters are clamoring for more, without realizing that in addition to a decline in growth, as identified by the <a href="https://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/lettre/2024/let450.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="Nouvelle fenêtre" >Centre for Prospective Studies and International Information (CEPII)</a>, the tariffs will lead to a significant increase in the prices of imported products.</p> <p class="article__paragraph "><a href="https://cdn.nrf.com/sites/default/files/2024-11/Estimated_Impacts_of_Proposed_Tariffs_on_Imports_11.24_0.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="Nouvelle fenêtre" >The National Retail Federation</a> has calculated that the measure could cut the purchasing power of US consumers by between $46 billion and $78 billion on clothing, appliances or shoes. While Trump won the election on the theme of fighting inflation, his policies paradoxically risk reviving it.</p> <p class="reading-mode-only "><strong>You have 49.43% of this article left to read. 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