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<!doctype html><html lang="en"><head><title data-rh="true">Why Home Prices Could Fall In 2025 | by Jeff Ostrowski | Minds Without Borders | Dec, 2024 | Medium</title><meta data-rh="true" charset="utf-8"/><meta data-rh="true" name="viewport" content="width=device-width,minimum-scale=1,initial-scale=1,maximum-scale=1"/><meta data-rh="true" name="theme-color" content="#000000"/><meta data-rh="true" name="twitter:app:name:iphone" content="Medium"/><meta data-rh="true" name="twitter:app:id:iphone" content="828256236"/><meta data-rh="true" property="al:ios:app_name" content="Medium"/><meta data-rh="true" property="al:ios:app_store_id" content="828256236"/><meta data-rh="true" property="al:android:package" content="com.medium.reader"/><meta data-rh="true" property="fb:app_id" content="542599432471018"/><meta data-rh="true" property="og:site_name" content="Medium"/><meta data-rh="true" property="og:type" content="article"/><meta data-rh="true" property="article:published_time" content="2024-12-14T21:17:24.339Z"/><meta data-rh="true" name="title" content="Why Home Prices Could Fall In 2025 | by Jeff Ostrowski | Minds Without Borders | Dec, 2024 | Medium"/><meta data-rh="true" property="og:title" content="Why home prices could fall in 2025: A contrarian’s view"/><meta data-rh="true" property="al:android:url" content="medium://p/7963da856eb6"/><meta data-rh="true" property="al:ios:url" content="medium://p/7963da856eb6"/><meta data-rh="true" property="al:android:app_name" content="Medium"/><meta data-rh="true" name="description" content="Almost no one expects U.S. home values to decline in 2025. 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hg hh hi hj du hk" aria-label="kicker paragraph">REAL ESTATE</h2><div><h1 id="7b23" class="pw-post-title hl hm hd bf hn ho hp hq hr hs ht hu hv hw hx hy hz ia ib ic id ie bk" data-testid="storyTitle">Why Home Prices Could Fall In 2025</h1></div><div><h2 id="9e75" class="pw-subtitle-paragraph if hm hd bf b ig ih ii ij ik il im in io ip iq ir is it iu cq du">A contrarian’s view</h2><div><div class="speechify-ignore ab cp"><div class="speechify-ignore bh l"><div class="iv iw ix iy iz ab"><div><div class="ab ja"><div><div class="bm" aria-hidden="false"><a rel="noopener follow" href="/@jmostrowski?source=post_page---byline--7963da856eb6--------------------------------"><div class="l jb jc by jd je"><div class="l fj"><img alt="Jeff Ostrowski" class="l fd by dd de cx" src="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fill:88:88/1*4pROIKlXmr56S2cy3a8iEQ.jpeg" width="44" height="44" loading="lazy" data-testid="authorPhoto"/><div class="jf by l dd de fs n jg ft"></div></div></div></a></div></div><div 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sizes="(min-resolution: 4dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 4) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (min-resolution: 3dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 67vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3) and (max-width: 700px) 65vw, (min-resolution: 2.5dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2.5) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (min-resolution: 2dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px" type="image/webp"/><source data-testid="og" srcSet="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:640/1*6R9ZLIdz0JpbAw-sPAelmw.png 640w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:720/1*6R9ZLIdz0JpbAw-sPAelmw.png 720w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:750/1*6R9ZLIdz0JpbAw-sPAelmw.png 750w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:786/1*6R9ZLIdz0JpbAw-sPAelmw.png 786w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:828/1*6R9ZLIdz0JpbAw-sPAelmw.png 828w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1100/1*6R9ZLIdz0JpbAw-sPAelmw.png 1100w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/1*6R9ZLIdz0JpbAw-sPAelmw.png 1400w" sizes="(min-resolution: 4dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 4) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (min-resolution: 3dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 67vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3) and (max-width: 700px) 65vw, (min-resolution: 2.5dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2.5) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (min-resolution: 2dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px"/><img alt="" class="bh nc oi c" width="700" height="523" loading="lazy" role="presentation"/></picture></div></div><figcaption class="oj ff ok nv nw ol om bf b bg z du">Chart courtesy HousingWire</figcaption></figure><p id="b65c" class="pw-post-body-paragraph on oo hd op b ig oq or os ij ot ou ov ow ox oy oz pa pb pc pd pe pf pg ph pi gw bk">Almost no one expects U.S. home values to decline in 2025. As the chart above shows, forecasters from 13 mainstream organizations expect home values to increase between 0.3 percent and 4.4 percent next year.</p><p id="9bc3" class="pw-post-body-paragraph on oo hd op b ig oq or os ij ot ou ov ow ox oy oz pa pb pc pd pe pf pg ph pi gw bk">But there is one exception: Richard Ross, CEO of Quinn Residences, expects home values to retreat.</p><p id="6ec1" class="pw-post-body-paragraph on oo hd op b ig oq or os ij ot ou ov ow ox oy oz pa pb pc pd pe pf pg ph pi gw bk">“Elevated long-term interest rates will start hurting the current home prices, and I expect existing home prices to fall 10-20 percent,” Ross said in a forecast issued in mid-November.</p><p id="c726" class="pw-post-body-paragraph on oo hd op b ig oq or os ij ot ou ov ow ox oy oz pa pb pc pd pe pf pg ph pi gw bk">Ross’ Atlanta-based company owns 5,200 rental homes, and his prediction is a clear outlier. When I spoke to him by phone just before Thanksgiving, he acknowledged that the U.S. housing supply trails demand by millions of homes. “There is a huge shortage,” he said.</p><p id="0bdf" class="pw-post-body-paragraph on oo hd op b ig oq or os ij ot ou ov ow ox oy oz pa pb pc pd pe pf pg ph pi gw bk">So why does Ross expect home prices to decline? He points to four main themes.</p><h2 id="118a" class="pj pk hd bf pl pm pn dy po pp pq ea pr ow ps pt pu pa pv pw px pe py pz qa hj bk">Mortgage rates keep surprising to the upside</h2><p id="72ad" class="pw-post-body-paragraph on oo hd op b ig qb or os ij qc ou ov ow qd oy oz pa qe pc pd pe qf pg ph pi gw bk">Nearly everyone expected mortgage rates to be below 6 percent by now. Instead, they’re close to 7 percent, according to Bankrate’s latest weekly survey. Even as mortgage rates began spiking in 2022, home values kept hitting one record after another.</p></div></div></div></div></section></div></div></article></div><div class="l"></div><footer class="qg qh qi qj gv ab q qk jk c"><div class="l ae"><div class="ab cb"><div class="ci bh fz ga gb gc"><div class="ab cp ql"><div class="ab q lu"><div class="qm l"><span class="l qn qo qp e d"><div class="ab q lu lv"><div class="pw-multi-vote-icon fj gt lw lx ly"><span><a class="af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at" data-testid="footerClapButton" rel="noopener follow" href="/m/signin?actionUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fmedium.com%2F_%2Fvote%2Fminds-without-borders%2F7963da856eb6&operation=register&redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fmedium.com%2Fminds-without-borders%2Fwhy-home-prices-could-fall-in-2025-a-contrarians-view-7963da856eb6&user=Jeff+Ostrowski&userId=9c44c797095b&source=---footer_actions--7963da856eb6---------------------clap_footer-----------"><div><div class="bm" aria-hidden="false"><div class="lz ao 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follow" href="/minds-without-borders/why-kids-need-to-believe-in-santa-claus-e3ea2ba56f3a?source=post_page---post_publication_info--7963da856eb6--------------------------------">Last published 1 day ago</a></div></div><div class="si l"><p class="bf b bg z bk"><span class="gw">A thoughtful look at how culture, society, politics, media and economics affect us all.</span></p></div></div></div><div class="h k"><div class="ab"></div></div></div></div><div class="ab rb rc rd jz jy"><div class="re rf rg rh ri rj rk rl rm rn ab cp"><div class="h k"><a tabindex="0" rel="noopener follow" href="/@jmostrowski?source=post_page---post_author_info--7963da856eb6--------------------------------"><div class="l fj"><img alt="Jeff Ostrowski" class="l fd by jc jb cx" src="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fill:96:96/1*4pROIKlXmr56S2cy3a8iEQ.jpeg" width="48" height="48" loading="lazy"/><div class="fr by l jc jb fs n ay rp"></div></div></a></div><div class="j i d"><a tabindex="0" rel="noopener follow" 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He writes about mortgages for Bankrate and appears on CNN, CNBC and other media.</span></p></div></div></div><div class="h k"><div class="ab"><span><button class="bf b bg z sj sk sl sm sn so sp ev ew sq sr ss fa fb fc fd bm fe ff">Follow</button></span></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="st l"><div class="qy bh r su sv sw sx sy"></div><div class="ab cb"><div class="ci bh fz ga gb gc"><div class="ab q cp"><h2 class="bf sa sz ii po ta il pr tb tc td te tf tg th ti tj bk">No responses yet</h2><div class="ab tk"><div><div class="bm" aria-hidden="false"><a class="tl tm" href="https://policy.medium.com/medium-rules-30e5502c4eb4?source=post_page---post_responses--7963da856eb6--------------------------------" rel="noopener follow" target="_blank"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="25" height="25" viewBox="0 0 25 25"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M11.987 5.036a.754.754 0 0 1 .914-.01c.972.721 1.767 1.218 2.6 1.543.828.322 1.719.485 2.887.505a.755.755 0 0 1 .741.757c-.018 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As the chart above shows, forecasters from 13 mainstream organizations expect home values to increase between 0.3 percent and 4.4 percent next year.","hasDropCap":null,"dropCapImage":null,"markups":[],"codeBlockMetadata":null,"iframe":null,"mixtapeMetadata":null},"Paragraph:e3d481d9bd15_5":{"__typename":"Paragraph","id":"e3d481d9bd15_5","name":"9bc3","type":"P","href":null,"layout":null,"metadata":null,"text":"But there is one exception: Richard Ross, CEO of Quinn Residences, expects home values to retreat.","hasDropCap":null,"dropCapImage":null,"markups":[],"codeBlockMetadata":null,"iframe":null,"mixtapeMetadata":null},"Paragraph:e3d481d9bd15_6":{"__typename":"Paragraph","id":"e3d481d9bd15_6","name":"6ec1","type":"P","href":null,"layout":null,"metadata":null,"text":"“Elevated long-term interest rates will start hurting the current home prices, and I expect existing home prices to fall 10-20 percent,” Ross said in a forecast issued in mid-November.","hasDropCap":null,"dropCapImage":null,"markups":[],"codeBlockMetadata":null,"iframe":null,"mixtapeMetadata":null},"Paragraph:e3d481d9bd15_7":{"__typename":"Paragraph","id":"e3d481d9bd15_7","name":"c726","type":"P","href":null,"layout":null,"metadata":null,"text":"Ross’ Atlanta-based company owns 5,200 rental homes, and his prediction is a clear outlier. When I spoke to him by phone just before Thanksgiving, he acknowledged that the U.S. housing supply trails demand by millions of homes. “There is a huge shortage,” he said.","hasDropCap":null,"dropCapImage":null,"markups":[],"codeBlockMetadata":null,"iframe":null,"mixtapeMetadata":null},"Paragraph:e3d481d9bd15_8":{"__typename":"Paragraph","id":"e3d481d9bd15_8","name":"0bdf","type":"P","href":null,"layout":null,"metadata":null,"text":"So why does Ross expect home prices to decline? He points to four main themes.","hasDropCap":null,"dropCapImage":null,"markups":[],"codeBlockMetadata":null,"iframe":null,"mixtapeMetadata":null},"Paragraph:e3d481d9bd15_9":{"__typename":"Paragraph","id":"e3d481d9bd15_9","name":"118a","type":"H4","href":null,"layout":null,"metadata":null,"text":"Mortgage rates keep surprising to the upside","hasDropCap":null,"dropCapImage":null,"markups":[],"codeBlockMetadata":null,"iframe":null,"mixtapeMetadata":null},"Paragraph:e3d481d9bd15_10":{"__typename":"Paragraph","id":"e3d481d9bd15_10","name":"72ad","type":"P","href":null,"layout":null,"metadata":null,"text":"Nearly everyone expected mortgage rates to be below 6 percent by now. Instead, they’re close to 7 percent, according to Bankrate’s latest weekly survey. 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