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愚公杂谈0309：拜登亲自宣布俄罗斯原油禁运的重大和深远影响_新浪财经_新浪网
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class="artInfo"> <span id="pub_date">2022年03月09日20:54</span> <span class="art_author" id="author_ename">作者:王远飞</span> <a class="support_fun" id="J_To_Support" href="javascript:;" title="赞一个" action-type="to_support" style="display:none;">(<em>0</em>)<span class="support_tip">+1</span></a> <a id="media_comment" href="#SI_FormList1" rel="我有话说" class="J_Comment_Count_Txt" style="display:none;" action-type="anchorGo" data-sudaclick="media_comment">我有话说</a> <div class="font_change" id="J_Font_Zoomer" data-sudaclick="font_change"> <span font-size="14"><a class="J_Font_Zoomer_Trigger icon font_down font_down_disable" action-type="fontZoom" action-data="type=down" href="javascript:void(0);" title="减小字号"></a><a class="J_Font_Zoomer_Trigger icon font_up" action-type="fontZoom" action-data="type=up" href="javascript:void(0);" title="加大字号"></a></span> </div> </div> <div id="art-subscribe" class="art-subscribe"></div> <script type="text/javascript"> requirejs(['lib', 'article'], function () { requirejs(['article/subscribe', 'uid-white-list-check', '$'], function (main, check) { $(document).ready(function () { main({ uid: 1624503474458, view1_el: $("#art-subscribe"), view1_relateElem: $("#author_ename"), view2_el: $("#blk_author_subscribe") }) check({ needCheck: false, suc: function () { }, fail: function () { //隐藏消息和设置 $("#login_wrapper") .find('[data-action]') .css({ display: 'none' }); } }); }); }); }); </script> <!-- 正文内容 begin --> <div class="BSHARE_POP blkContainerSblkCon clearfix blkContainerSblkCon_14" id="artibody"> <!--视频轮播start--> <!--视频轮播end--> <!--单图 start--> <div class="moduleSingleImg01"> </div> <!--单图 end--> <!-- publish_helper name='原始正文' p_id='31' t_id='1' d_id='23823534' f_id='45' --> <p> 文/新浪财经意见领袖专栏作家 王远飞（笔名：愚公）</p> <p> 前几日，壳牌采购了一票俄罗斯原油，立即被国际舆论送上了巅峰，而后不得不发表了这篇声明：</p> <div class="img_wrapper"><img src="//n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/308/w550h558/20220309/d937-d931aec9a5b3a80c71d513393ab7f202.png" alt=""><span class="img_descr"></span></div> <p> 愚公重点指出一句：we have been in constant discussion with governments about the consequences of the war ．．． we have acted throughout in accordance with what we have understood was the intent to allow energy flows from Russia．我们一直在与各国政府讨论战争的后果。我们一直按照我们所理解的意图采取行动，允许俄罗斯的能源流入。</p> <p> 浅析壳牌这个声明，我认为至少说明了三个问题：</p> <p> 1、最大的俄罗斯油买家，遭到了最高的政治干预，所以壳牌的高层必须立即掉头，确保政治正确；当然了，在那段话里也体现了壳牌敢于买了这票油，也是政治正确滴；</p> <p> 2、最大的俄罗斯油买家，遭到了最强的公众舆论压力，西方政府正在利用此事引导市场舆论，加强市场尤其是试图加强俄罗斯方面对制裁后果严重性的心理预期；</p> <p> 3、最大的俄罗斯原油买家，同时也是全球最大的石油生产商之一，它突然掉头也会导致市场对石油供需平衡的预期持续偏紧一段，进一步导致石油上游生产商的股价而因此持续受益，<strong>等于政府为这些生产商创造了融资能力和保值窗口，反过来这些生产商也会得考虑投桃报李。</strong>换句话说，西方政府为了逼自己企业干保供，也是有办法滴，西方政府给出了这么高的油价，西方的生产商若再不生产石油，那真说不过去了，进一步落实到壳牌身上，它对欧洲能源安全可以说是至关重要，<strong>壳牌这个声明等于宣布了它要开始承担起增加北海石油和天然气供给量的重任了。</strong></p> <p> 愚公认为：拜登亲自宣布对俄原油禁运，英国宣布2022年底之前暂停进口俄罗斯原油，这说明，欧美的领导人在长期战略上非常清醒并且已经达成了战略共识：长期依赖俄罗斯的化石燃料供给，就是政治和经济吸毒一样，是时候戒断了！欧美国家即便花再多的纳税人的钱去喂北极熊，欧美国家也不会再收到任何进一步的能源安全收益和地缘政治收益了，由于长期缺乏上游的投资，能源价格最终还是会飙涨失控的，长痛不如短痛，借此机会，自力更生，成功甩锅，早点戒毒，让本国企业远离低成本原料，让全世界的年轻一代政客和民众们远离西方舆论中的那些流氓国家，<strong>逼着本国的传统能源企业保供，逼着本国的新能源产业开始振作起来</strong>，当然，也借此机会转移了民众对于高通胀问题的舆论压力，可谓是重大战略举措，其影响不论在短期还是长期，都是重大和深远的！</p><!-- news_keyword_pub,stock, --> <p> (本文作者介绍：职业交易员，拥有15年国际能源衍生品交易经验，在“地缘政治、能源安全领域”拥有10年研究经验。) </p> <p> </p> </div> <script type="text/javascript"> //分享到微博 单张图片分享 jsLoader(ARTICLE_JSS.sinalib). jsLoader(ARTICLE_JSS.shareOnWeibo,function(){ WeiboShare.config({ source: ARTICLE_DATA.source, sourceUrl: ARTICLE_DATA.sourceUrl, uid: ARTICLE_DATA.uid, encoding: 'utf-8', selectShare: false, channelId:ARTICLE_DATA.channelId }); WeiboShare.init('#artibody'); }); </script> <!-- 正文内容 end --> <p class="article-editor">责任编辑：陈修龙 </p> <div class="fin_art_weixin clearfix"><p><strong> 新浪财经意见领袖专栏文章均为作者个人观点，不代表新浪财经的立场和观点。 </strong></p><p><strong> 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