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class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f"> (6 pages)</span></a></div></div></div></div> <p><strong>Global demand for liquefied natural gas</strong> (LNG) is surging as regions with growing demand look to source from those with abundant supply. The urgency to meet this demand is intensifying due to growing energy demand from regions such as Asia, as well as the declining supply of domestic gas and the interruption of piped supply (for example, Russian piped gas supply to Europe).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" data-module-gradient-position="bottom-right" class="mck-c-inline-module-container SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__bgimg-wrapper__Qj4Dt mck-o-sm-left-span SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper__Dpjw2 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper--istablet__IQ6ii mck-u-screen-only mck-c-module-wrapper" data-layer-region="sidebar"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__epoAm mck-o-md-center"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons-wrapper__9gB_c"><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons___eQy6"><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="Expandable Sidebar" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__toggle-btn__EL8iE" aria-expanded="false" data-layer-event-prefix="UI Item" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="sidebar" data-layer-subcategory="open" data-layer-text="open sidebar"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--radial___y3csX_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-xxl___cL3ZT_2734c4f mck-plus-no-circle-icon"></span></button></div></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-outer__UdWCq"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__eyebrow__5GSEq"></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content__raEwe"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-3 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-heading__NJekY"><div>About the authors</div></h2><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-description__4p9iI mdc-u-ts-7"><div class="mdc-o-content-body"><p>This article is a collaborative effort by Pradhuman Aggarwal, Justin Dahl, <a href="/our-people/dumitru-dediu">Dumitru Dediu</a>, Sam Linder, and <a href="/our-people/micah-smith">Micah Smith</a>, representing views from McKinsey’s Oil & Gas Practice.</p></div></div></div></div></div></div> <p>The last two years have seen more than ten projects with over 100 million tons per annum (MTPA) of LNG capacity taking final investment decision (FID), many of these in North America. There is now unprecedented pressure on the industry to deliver these projects, as well as line up new projects that prepare to take FID.</p> <p>The projects are largely concentrated along the Gulf Coast, where they are competing over a limited pool of resources—including labor, supplies, and engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractors, who face growing backlogs. This is exacerbating cost escalations and financial pressures on project owners.</p> <p>In this highly competitive market with rising capital costs, projects that have not yet reached FID may need to rethink their strategies, and projects that have already taken FID may need to build capabilities to monitor progress to deliver on schedule and avoid cost escalation.</p> <p>This article explores the predicted continued rise in LNG demand and the key challenges that US-based developments face to meet it.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-disruptor1up mck-o-md-center mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="disruptor-1up"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-md mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 "><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-12"><header data-component="mdc-c-header" class="mdc-c-header"><div class="mdc-c-header__block___i1Lg-_2734c4f"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div>Would you like to learn more about our <a href="/industries/oil-and-gas/how-we-help-clients">Oil & Gas Practice</a>?</div></h3></div></header><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f mck-c-disruptor1up__content Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__content--links__VV4lE mdc-u-grid-gutter-md"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/industries/oil-and-gas/how-we-help-clients/capital-projects" class="mdc-c-link-cta___NBQVi_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Visit our Capital Projects page</span><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mck-link-arrow-right-icon"></span></a></div></div></div></div> <h2>The looming LNG supply-demand gap</h2> <p>In McKinsey’s “Current Trajectory” and “Further Acceleration” energy-transition scenarios, global demand for LNG is expected to rise by 1.5 to 3.0 percent per year until 2035.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="07de80b7-ecd5-43ce-b969-c46922c0ff8d"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">1</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="07de80b7-ecd5-43ce-b969-c46922c0ff8d" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline"><em><a href="/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/global-energy-perspective-2022">Global energy perspective 2022</a></em>, McKinsey, April 26, 2022. For further information see “Energy outlook 2022,” BP, 2022; “Global gas outlook 2050,” GECF, December 2022; “World energy outlook 2022,” IEA, October 2022; “Shell LNG outlook 2023,” Shell, February 2023.</span></span></span></a></span> By 2050, LNG is projected to almost double as a share of the global gas supply, from 13 to 24 percent.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="79bdae6d-0a46-411e-963b-f145d541b1b9"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">2</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="79bdae6d-0a46-411e-963b-f145d541b1b9" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">McKinsey Gas Intelligence Model.</span></span></span></a></span></p> <p>Demand is affected by several factors, internationally and domestically. It reflects the growing influence of climate change policies, which are increasing both the share of renewables in grids and end use electrification.</p> <p>Domestic production of gas and LNG in Southeast Asia is dropping just as regional demand rises, due in part to the region’s accelerated energy transition efforts and diversification away from piped-gas imports.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="b73edff9-d791-4ea3-9a39-f3d253669b47"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">3</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="b73edff9-d791-4ea3-9a39-f3d253669b47" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">McKinsey Gas Intelligence Model.</span></span></span></a></span> The conflicts in Europe (and the Middle East), meanwhile, is causing major disruption to international supply, contributing to a worldwide need for new LNG developments.</p> <p>The United States could help fill this supply gap due to its advantaged gas resources and stable environment. Planned LNG supply developments in the United States could meet between 70 and 80 percent of future demand.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="34774a05-3ab0-48d9-8d61-6a576c7e4005"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">4</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="34774a05-3ab0-48d9-8d61-6a576c7e4005" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">McKinsey analysis.</span></span></span></a></span></p> <p>The concentration of projects in the United States, however, could pose a barrier to the execution of new projects, threatening to create a supply-demand gap. Without action from the industry, the growth in demand could create a supply shortage ranging from 100 to 130 million tons per annum (MTPA) from 2030 onwards (Exhibit 1).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 1</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/crunch%20time%20in%20the%20north%20american%20lng%20industry%20how%20to%20meet%20demand/svgz-strain-of-new-builds-ex1-v3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="From 2030 onwards, a sustained supply-demand gap opens, requiring additional capacity to balance by 2035." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/crunch%20time%20in%20the%20north%20american%20lng%20industry%20how%20to%20meet%20demand/svgz-strain-of-new-builds-ex1-v3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>There is a risk to cost escalations for projects in the United States. To remain globally competitive, projects will need to keep costs of delivered LNG below $8 per million British thermal units (MMBTU) (Exhibit 2).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 2</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/crunch%20time%20in%20the%20north%20american%20lng%20industry%20how%20to%20meet%20demand/svgz-strain-of-new-builds-ex2-v7.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="The liquified natural gas supply gap could be filled by projects below $9 per million British thermal units, largely from North American projects." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/crunch%20time%20in%20the%20north%20american%20lng%20industry%20how%20to%20meet%20demand/svgz-strain-of-new-builds-ex2-v7.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <h2>Barriers to LNG developments in the United States</h2> <p>There are more than 20 new LNG developments awaiting FID in the United States.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="bb5335b7-6d0d-4700-8e4e-f2b1f94751f3"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">5</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="bb5335b7-6d0d-4700-8e4e-f2b1f94751f3" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline"><em>North American LNG export terminals—existing, approved not yet built, and proposed</em>, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, November 8, 2023; McKinsey analysis.</span></span></span></a></span> However, as capital costs keep rising and EPC backlogs fill up, contractors are showing less desire to take on more risk as the vicious demand cycle for pre-FID Gulf Coast LNG projects continues.</p> <p>The geographic location of these projects is a major factor, given that over 70 percent of all pre-FID US projects are located along the Gulf Coast.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="2f2d9ca1-371f-4ad2-b392-00b71bbca32f"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">6</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="2f2d9ca1-371f-4ad2-b392-00b71bbca32f" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline"><em>North American LNG export terminals—existing, approved not yet built, and proposed</em>, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, November 8, 2023; McKinsey analysis.</span></span></span></a></span> LNG projects are competing with other large scale projects (such as petrochemicals and renewables) for the same limited pools of local skills, suppliers, and contractors, driving up construction wages, per diems, and risking productivity declines. The impacts from competition are expected to continue to ripple beyond 2024 as demand from the Gulf Coast EPC market grows.</p> <p>Already, these projects have witnessed a 10 to 20 percent cost escalation since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, driven primarily by a combination of price volatility in raw materials, escalation in labor costs, and rising equipment costs (Exhibit 3).<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="46f2abd7-27b6-43f1-93fe-ad7f43d70e67"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">7</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="46f2abd7-27b6-43f1-93fe-ad7f43d70e67" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">McKinsey analysis.</span></span></span></a></span> These cost pressures are exacerbated by supply chain disruptions, which contribute to lengthening project schedules.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 3</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/crunch%20time%20in%20the%20north%20american%20lng%20industry%20how%20to%20meet%20demand/svgz-strain-of-new-builds-ex3-v2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="A typical process-industry project has seen a 10 to 20 percent increase in costs post COVID-19." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/crunch%20time%20in%20the%20north%20american%20lng%20industry%20how%20to%20meet%20demand/svgz-strain-of-new-builds-ex3-v2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Prices for critical LNG construction materials, such as copper, hot-rolled coil steel, and aluminum are over 30 percent higher than in 2020, and the cost of rotating equipment has increased by up to 20 percent.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="220b9125-fe98-472e-8c56-9f3d8d04a508"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">8</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="220b9125-fe98-472e-8c56-9f3d8d04a508" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“Steel business briefing, Platts Connect”, S&P Global; McKinsey analysis.</span></span></span></a></span> Most equipment manufacturers report serious product backlogs, too—hampering the effort to supply new projects.</p> <p>Analysis suggests that EPC contractors may need to expand capacity to deliver on the increasing demand for work (Exhibit 4). The pool of available contractors is shrinking, with most global large-volume LNG projects now executed by just six primary EPC contractors.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="653b4a5e-d73f-4746-8247-5a14b72e0a59"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">9</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="653b4a5e-d73f-4746-8247-5a14b72e0a59" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">McKinsey analysis.</span></span></span></a></span> This reduced pool of contractors is straining to deliver on significantly greater project demand. To make matters worse, the Gulf Coast market is already struggling against a substantial backlog of projects in oil and gas, petrochemicals, new energy, and advanced industries.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 4</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/crunch%20time%20in%20the%20north%20american%20lng%20industry%20how%20to%20meet%20demand/svgz-strain-of-new-builds-ex4-v3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Rapid increase is expected in US Gulf Coast craft-resources demand post 2024, driven by process-industry projects." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/crunch%20time%20in%20the%20north%20american%20lng%20industry%20how%20to%20meet%20demand/svgz-strain-of-new-builds-ex4-v3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>In response to rising labor costs and supply chain delays, contractors are having to include increased risk premiums and contingencies in their project estimates. This could put the economics of pre-FID LNG projects at risk. Traditional project-financing designs, involving Lump Sum Turnkey (LSTK) agreements, are becoming increasingly difficult to get right, too, given contractors’ reduced appetite for risk. As a result, US-based greenfield projects are finding it harder to secure project financing and fixed-price contract terms at competitive costs.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-disruptor1up mck-o-md-center mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="disruptor-1up"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-md mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 "><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-4 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-5 Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__image___2Gc4"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture"><img alt="Distillation tank of oil refinery plant, morning time - stock photo" src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/how%20north%20american%20natural%20gas%20could%20alleviate%20the%20global%20energy%20crisis/thumb-gettyimages-1157759125.jpg?cq=50&mh=145&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-7"><header data-component="mdc-c-header" class="mdc-c-header"><div class="mdc-c-header__block___i1Lg-_2734c4f"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div>How North American natural gas could alleviate the global energy crisis</div></h3></div></header><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f mck-c-disruptor1up__content Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__content--links__VV4lE mdc-u-grid-gutter-md"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/how-north-american-natural-gas-could-alleviate-the-global-energy-crisis" class="mdc-c-link-cta___NBQVi_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Read the article</span><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mck-link-arrow-right-icon"></span></a></div></div></div></div> <h2>LNG project strategy may need to be reimagined</h2> <p>New strategies could make LNG projects more competitive, allowing them to deliver on time and within the required cost range. This may involve breaking certain conventions—such as the notion of “bigger is better” and the conventional bid-or-buy relationship between owners and contractors. Projects could consider a few key innovations to overcome the challenges facing the industry.</p> <p><strong>Exploring smaller modular trains, supplier-led, offsite construction.</strong> As a potential remedy to localization challenges, projects may benefit from pulling work offsite. To reduce craft labor, projects could move portions of work to modular yards or other offsite construction yards by building many smaller, modular trains instead, which can be pre-assembled offsite and rapidly installed and implemented.</p> <p><strong>Changing traditional contracting strategies.</strong> Shifting the contracting strategy, from giving an LSTK contract to one provider to bringing more contractors into negotiations during the planning stage of projects, could encourage competition and the formation of joint ventures or alternate contract structures. This could have a knock-on benefit for costs and increase the likelihood of securing project financing.</p> <p><strong>Re-allocating project risks among owners and suppliers.</strong> With fewer EPC contractors willing to accept fixed-price or LSTK contracts, and more uncertainty in the supply chain, the LNG industry may require a shift in its risk-sharing mechanisms. Projects that are looking to progress quickly will likely have to shoulder a greater burden of risk to attract EPCs. The industry is already changing to reflect this principle—in the last 12 months, a higher proportion of process-industry project contracts (including LNG projects) have used a wider range of risk-sharing mechanisms, such as index pricing and provisional sums.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="10db64dc-5db4-4a1c-ae6a-abbe84406ddc"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">10</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="10db64dc-5db4-4a1c-ae6a-abbe84406ddc" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">McKinsey analysis.</span></span></span></a></span></p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" data-module-gradient-position="bottom-right" class="mck-c-inline-module-container SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__bgimg-wrapper__Qj4Dt mck-o-sm-left-span SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper__Dpjw2 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper--istablet__IQ6ii mck-u-screen-only mck-c-module-wrapper" data-layer-region="sidebar"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__epoAm mck-o-md-center"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons-wrapper__9gB_c"><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons___eQy6"><div data-component="mdc-c-dropdown-menu" class="mdc-c-drop-down"><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium mdc-c-drop-down__rootmenu___yJzvz_2734c4f" aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--default___f-hQM_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_2734c4f mck-share2-icon"></span></button><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="white" data-module-category="" class=""></div></div><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="Expandable Sidebar" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__toggle-btn__EL8iE" aria-expanded="false" data-layer-event-prefix="UI Item" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="sidebar" data-layer-subcategory="open" data-layer-text="open sidebar"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--radial___y3csX_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-xxl___cL3ZT_2734c4f mck-plus-no-circle-icon"></span></button></div></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-outer__UdWCq"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__eyebrow__5GSEq"></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content__raEwe"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-3 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-heading__NJekY"><div>Managing schedule (and cost) risk</div></h2><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-description__4p9iI mdc-u-ts-7"><div class="mdc-o-content-body"><p>Most US LNG projects are being developed under lump-sum turnkey contracts with EPC contracts, who bear the cost and schedule risk. The LNG operators still bear the schedule risk, as well as potential distress of EPC contractors to deliver the projects.</p> <p>By integrating leading indicators and ongoing productivity metrics, organizations can further strengthen their proactive approach to managing cost and schedule risk. For example, a large LNG project recently bolstered its performance management systems to reduce schedule slippage. It introduced shop floor, production-measurement practices and established a standardized intervention cycle that empowered the front line to continually enhance performance.</p> <p>For successful project delivery, organizations could:</p> <ol> <li><strong>Enhance processes that are designed to prioritize forward-looking problem-solving.</strong> Improving project management processes can be achieved with data-driven discussions using real time or near-real time information, providing a holistic view of project performance across various phases, such as EPC and other project areas.</li> <li><strong>Create a robust, high-performing project team, where information flows seamlessly throughout the management infrastructure.</strong> This facilitates decision making at the appropriate levels and helps establish a strong performance-management culture, with regular project meetings, well-defined decision processes (including escalation paths), structured performance dialogues, and designated physical spaces for project decision making (such as command centers).</li> <li><strong>Ensure a strong connection between a project’s digital control tower and project performance management processes.</strong> Accurately interpreting reliable data can help projects stick to schedule, improve productivity, and create a more cohesive workflow within the company by informing better project management processes.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="e4af2399-301d-4f74-9fc7-becc9ce2d2f5"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">1</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="e4af2399-301d-4f74-9fc7-becc9ce2d2f5" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“<a href="/capabilities/operations/our-insights/increasing-transparency-in-megaproject-execution">Increasing transparency in megaproject execution</a>,” McKinsey, August 21, 2023.</span></span></span></a></span> With immediate access to comprehensive and accurate data, management teams can focus their attention on issues with the greatest potential to impact project outcomes instead of engaging in aimless discussions based on incomplete information. Storing this data in the cloud allows staff to access and contribute to discussions from any location. Yet even with perfect information availability, improved project outcomes require effective systems to support decision making and drive action. By making use of the right technical system, data can be better visualized and therefore interpreted, allowing managers to draw insights that enable better decision making with fewer risks. Correctly analyzing this data also ensures that leaders can make informed decisions and executives can see the full picture.</li> </ol></div></div></div></div></div></div> <p><strong>Managing cost and schedule risk.</strong> Organizations often face challenges in effectively managing costs and schedules, causing projects to frequently surpass budgets and timelines by 30 to 45 percent.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="63e4f492-6da9-4726-b257-c2e1c9df0ff0"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">11</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="63e4f492-6da9-4726-b257-c2e1c9df0ff0" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">McKinsey analysis.</span></span></span></a></span> This issue is exacerbated by a lack of transparency in project management, impeding timely decision making. To address these challenges, organizations require innovative technical solutions that can capture and analyze project data, much like a digital control tower. These solutions provide a real time window into project performance, enabling swift data-driven decision-making, and can help identify early warning signs of delays or issues in the supply chain (see sidebar, “Managing schedule (and cost) risk”).</p> <hr/> <p>US-based LNG projects are the world’s likeliest candidates to deliver on the growing demand for LNG. But they are facing serious supply challenges, driven by cost increases, capacity constraints, and supply-chain issues.</p> <p>Bending the cost curve will require innovative solutions: the industry may need to rethink the conventional allocation of risk among owners, suppliers, and contractors. Successful future LNG projects may be those that harness repeatable, modular designs, collaborative project-management models, and new contracting strategies to reduce costs and risks for contractors.</p></div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xl"><section role="contentinfo" data-layer-region="article-about-authors" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 AboutAuthor_mck-c-about-author__nRJzu"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center"></h5><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline mck-u-links-inline--secondary mdc-u-mt-5"><div><p><strong>Pradhuman Aggarwal</strong> is a consultant in McKinsey’s Houston office, where <strong>Justin Dahl</strong> is a partner and <strong>Sam Linder</strong> is an associate partner; <strong><a href="/our-people/dumitru-dediu">Dumitru Dediu</a></strong> is a partner in the New York office; and <strong><a href="/our-people/micah-smith">Micah Smith</a></strong> is a senior partner in the Dallas office.</p></div></div></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-screen-only"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-5 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-9"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center">Explore a career with us</h5><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--align-center___ar3mu_2734c4f"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/careers/search-jobs" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--secondary___Boipq_2734c4f mdc-c-button--size-large___jwpUy_2734c4f" aria-label="Search Openings" data-layer-event-prefix="CTA Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="careers" data-layer-subcategory="search" data-layer-text="Search Openings"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Search Openings</span></a></div></div></section></div></main></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="StandalonePromo" class="RelatedArticle_mck-c-article-related__GGA76 mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="related-articles"><div class="mdc-o-container__wrapper is-wrapped mdc-u-spaced-mobile"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center">Related Articles</h5><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-3 RelatedArticle_items-container__s2uD0"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg Card_card__diA2r Card_hover-effect__RGb9b"><div class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/industries/electric-power-and-natural-gas/our-insights/the-role-of-natural-gas-in-the-move-to-cleaner-more-reliable-power" class="mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><style>.picture-uniqueKey-ther-0 { aspect-ratio: 16/9 }</style><img alt="Power plant. - 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The urgency to meet this demand is intensifying due to growing energy demand from regions such as Asia, as well as the declining supply of domestic gas and the interruption of piped supply (for example, Russian piped gas supply to Europe).\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[sidebar authors]]\n\n\u003cp\u003eThe last two years have seen more than ten projects with over 100 million tons per annum (MTPA) of LNG capacity taking final investment decision (FID), many of these in North America. There is now unprecedented pressure on the industry to deliver these projects, as well as line up new projects that prepare to take FID.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThe projects are largely concentrated along the Gulf Coast, where they are competing over a limited pool of resources\u0026mdash;including labor, supplies, and engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractors, who face growing backlogs. This is exacerbating cost escalations and financial pressures on project owners.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eIn this highly competitive market with rising capital costs, projects that have not yet reached FID may need to rethink their strategies, and projects that have already taken FID may need to build capabilities to monitor progress to deliver on schedule and avoid cost escalation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThis article explores the predicted continued rise in LNG demand and the key challenges that US-based developments face to meet it.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[disruptor1up learnmore]]\n\n\u003ch2\u003eThe looming LNG supply-demand gap\u003c/h2\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eIn McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s \u0026ldquo;Current Trajectory\u0026rdquo; and \u0026ldquo;Further Acceleration\u0026rdquo; energy-transition scenarios, global demand for LNG is expected to rise by 1.5 to 3.0 percent per year until 2035.[[footnote 1]] By 2050, LNG is projected to almost double as a share of the global gas supply, from 13 to 24 percent.[[footnote 2]]\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eDemand is affected by several factors, internationally and domestically. It reflects the growing influence of climate change policies, which are increasing both the share of renewables in grids and end use electrification.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eDomestic production of gas and LNG in Southeast Asia is dropping just as regional demand rises, due in part to the region\u0026rsquo;s accelerated energy transition efforts and diversification away from piped-gas imports.[[footnote 3]] The conflicts in Europe (and the Middle East), meanwhile, is causing major disruption to international supply, contributing to a worldwide need for new LNG developments.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThe United States could help fill this supply gap due to its advantaged gas resources and stable environment. Planned LNG supply developments in the United States could meet between 70 and 80 percent of future demand.[[footnote 4]]\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThe concentration of projects in the United States, however, could pose a barrier to the execution of new projects, threatening to create a supply-demand gap. Without action from the industry, the growth in demand could create a supply shortage ranging from 100 to 130 million tons per annum (MTPA) from 2030 onwards (Exhibit 1).\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[Exhibit 1]]\n\n\u003cp\u003eThere is a risk to cost escalations for projects in the United States. To remain globally competitive, projects will need to keep costs of delivered LNG below $8 per million British thermal units (MMBTU) (Exhibit 2).\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[Exhibit 2]]\n\n\u003ch2\u003eBarriers to LNG developments in the United States\u003c/h2\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThere are more than 20 new LNG developments awaiting FID in the United States.[[footnote 5]] However, as capital costs keep rising and EPC backlogs fill up, contractors are showing less desire to take on more risk as the vicious demand cycle for pre-FID Gulf Coast LNG projects continues.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThe geographic location of these projects is a major factor, given that over 70 percent of all pre-FID US projects are located along the Gulf Coast.[[footnote 6]] LNG projects are competing with other large scale projects (such as petrochemicals and renewables) for the same limited pools of local skills, suppliers, and contractors, driving up construction wages, per diems, and risking productivity declines. The impacts from competition are expected to continue to ripple beyond 2024 as demand from the Gulf Coast EPC market grows.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eAlready, these projects have witnessed a 10 to 20 percent cost escalation since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, driven primarily by a combination of price volatility in raw materials, escalation in labor costs, and rising equipment costs (Exhibit 3).[[footnote 7]] These cost pressures are exacerbated by supply chain disruptions, which contribute to lengthening project schedules.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[Exhibit 3]]\n\n\u003cp\u003ePrices for critical LNG construction materials, such as copper, hot-rolled coil steel, and aluminum are over 30 percent higher than in 2020, and the cost of rotating equipment has increased by up to 20 percent.[[footnote 8]] Most equipment manufacturers report serious product backlogs, too\u0026mdash;hampering the effort to supply new projects.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eAnalysis suggests that EPC contractors may need to expand capacity to deliver on the increasing demand for work (Exhibit 4). The pool of available contractors is shrinking, with most global large-volume LNG projects now executed by just six primary EPC contractors.[[footnote 9]] This reduced pool of contractors is straining to deliver on significantly greater project demand. To make matters worse, the Gulf Coast market is already struggling against a substantial backlog of projects in oil and gas, petrochemicals, new energy, and advanced industries.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[Exhibit 4]]\n\n\u003cp\u003eIn response to rising labor costs and supply chain delays, contractors are having to include increased risk premiums and contingencies in their project estimates. This could put the economics of pre-FID LNG projects at risk. Traditional project-financing designs, involving Lump Sum Turnkey (LSTK) agreements, are becoming increasingly difficult to get right, too, given contractors\u0026rsquo; reduced appetite for risk. As a result, US-based greenfield projects are finding it harder to secure project financing and fixed-price contract terms at competitive costs.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[disruptor1up readnext]]\n\n\u003ch2\u003eLNG project strategy may need to be reimagined\u003c/h2\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eNew strategies could make LNG projects more competitive, allowing them to deliver on time and within the required cost range. This may involve breaking certain conventions\u0026mdash;such as the notion of \u0026ldquo;bigger is better\u0026rdquo; and the conventional bid-or-buy relationship between owners and contractors. Projects could consider a few key innovations to overcome the challenges facing the industry.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eExploring smaller modular trains, supplier-led, offsite construction.\u003c/strong\u003e As a potential remedy to localization challenges, projects may benefit from pulling work offsite. To reduce craft labor, projects could move portions of work to modular yards or other offsite construction yards by building many smaller, modular trains instead, which can be pre-assembled offsite and rapidly installed and implemented.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eChanging traditional contracting strategies.\u003c/strong\u003e Shifting the contracting strategy, from giving an LSTK contract to one provider to bringing more contractors into negotiations during the planning stage of projects, could encourage competition and the formation of joint ventures or alternate contract structures. This could have a knock-on benefit for costs and increase the likelihood of securing project financing.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eRe-allocating project risks among owners and suppliers.\u003c/strong\u003e With fewer EPC contractors willing to accept fixed-price or LSTK contracts, and more uncertainty in the supply chain, the LNG industry may require a shift in its risk-sharing mechanisms. Projects that are looking to progress quickly will likely have to shoulder a greater burden of risk to attract EPCs. The industry is already changing to reflect this principle\u0026mdash;in the last 12 months, a higher proportion of process-industry project contracts (including LNG projects) have used a wider range of risk-sharing mechanisms, such as index pricing and provisional sums.[[footnote 10]]\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[sidebar 1]]\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eManaging cost and schedule risk.\u003c/strong\u003e Organizations often face challenges in effectively managing costs and schedules, causing projects to frequently surpass budgets and timelines by 30 to 45 percent.[[footnote 11]] This issue is exacerbated by a lack of transparency in project management, impeding timely decision making. To address these challenges, organizations require innovative technical solutions that can capture and analyze project data, much like a digital control tower. These solutions provide a real time window into project performance, enabling swift data-driven decision-making, and can help identify early warning signs of delays or issues in the supply chain (see sidebar, \u0026ldquo;Managing schedule (and cost) risk\u0026rdquo;).\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eUS-based LNG projects are the world\u0026rsquo;s likeliest candidates to deliver on the growing demand for LNG. But they are facing serious supply challenges, driven by cost increases, capacity constraints, and supply-chain issues.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eBending the cost curve will require innovative solutions: the industry may need to rethink the conventional allocation of risk among owners, suppliers, and contractors. Successful future LNG projects may be those that harness repeatable, modular designs, collaborative project-management models, and new contracting strategies to reduce costs and risks for contractors.\u003c/p\u003e"},"isFullScreenInteractive":{"boolValue":false},"hideStickySocialShareBar":{"boolValue":false},"desktopID":{"value":""},"mobileID":{"value":""},"desktopURL":{"value":""},"mobileURL":{"value":""},"desktopPaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"mobilePaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"desktopOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"mobileOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"cerosOembedURL":{"value":""},"cerosRenderMode":{"targetItem":null},"cerosBackgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"hideByLine":{"boolValue":true},"tableOfContentsTitle":{"value":"TABLE OF CONTENTS"},"accessStatus":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"RegisteredUsers"},"value":{"value":"Registered Users"}}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"hasSpecialReport":{"boolValue":false},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"externalPublication":{"value":""},"mobileReady":{"boolValue":true},"forClientsOnly":{"boolValue":false},"excludeFromClientLink":{"boolValue":false},"originalPublishDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2023-12-07T00:00:00Z"}},"footnotes":{"value":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003ca href=\"/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/global-energy-perspective-2022\"\u003eGlobal energy perspective 2022\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/em\u003e, McKinsey, April 26, 2022. For further information see \u0026ldquo;Energy outlook 2022,\u0026rdquo; BP, 2022; \u0026ldquo;Global gas outlook 2050,\u0026rdquo; GECF, December 2022; \u0026ldquo;World energy outlook 2022,\u0026rdquo; IEA, October 2022; \u0026ldquo;Shell LNG outlook 2023,\u0026rdquo; Shell, February 2023.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eMcKinsey Gas Intelligence Model.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eMcKinsey Gas Intelligence Model.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eMcKinsey analysis.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eNorth American LNG export terminals\u0026mdash;existing, approved not yet built, and proposed\u003c/em\u003e, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, November 8, 2023; McKinsey analysis.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eNorth American LNG export terminals\u0026mdash;existing, approved not yet built, and proposed\u003c/em\u003e, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, November 8, 2023; McKinsey analysis.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eMcKinsey analysis.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;Steel business briefing, Platts Connect\u0026rdquo;, S\u0026amp;P Global; McKinsey analysis.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eMcKinsey analysis.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eMcKinsey analysis.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eMcKinsey analysis.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},"contributoryPractice":{"targetItems":[{"displayName":"Oil \u0026 Gas"}]},"aboutTheAuthors":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003ePradhuman Aggarwal\u003c/strong\u003e is a consultant in McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s Houston office, where \u003cstrong\u003eJustin Dahl\u003c/strong\u003e is a partner and \u003cstrong\u003eSam Linder\u003c/strong\u003e is an associate partner; \u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/our-people/dumitru-dediu\"\u003eDumitru Dediu\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e is a partner in the New York office; and \u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/our-people/micah-smith\"\u003eMicah Smith\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e is a senior partner in the Dallas office.\u003c/p\u003e"},"authors":{"targetItems":[{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"C87479829A634EFD8DCE01FB400D620A","name":"Pradhuman Aggarwal","authorTitle":{"value":"Pradhuman Aggarwal"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"234BC4A42E164E969735655540707EA5","name":"Justin Dahl","authorTitle":{"value":"Justin Dahl"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[{"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/justin dahl/justin_dahl_standard_profile_1536x1152.jpg","alt":"Photo of Justin Dahl, Partner, McKinsey \u0026 Company"},"emailLinks":{"value":"Justin_Dahl@mckinsey.com"},"linkedInUrl":{"value":"https://www.linkedin.com/in/dahljustin/"},"description":{"value":" Brings expertise in overall capital project development and delivery to a diverse group of 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topics"}}}]},"articlesidebar":{"results":[{"mediaID":{"value":"1"},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"\u003cp\u003eMost US LNG projects are being developed under lump-sum turnkey contracts with EPC contracts, who bear the cost and schedule risk. The LNG operators still bear the schedule risk, as well as potential distress of EPC contractors to deliver the projects.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eBy integrating leading indicators and ongoing productivity metrics, organizations can further strengthen their proactive approach to managing cost and schedule risk. For example, a large LNG project recently bolstered its performance management systems to reduce schedule slippage. It introduced shop floor, production-measurement practices and established a standardized intervention cycle that empowered the front line to continually enhance performance.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eFor successful project delivery, organizations could:\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003col\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEnhance processes that are designed to prioritize forward-looking problem-solving.\u003c/strong\u003e Improving project management processes can be achieved with data-driven discussions using real time or near-real time information, providing a holistic view of project performance across various phases, such as EPC and other project areas.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eCreate a robust, high-performing project team, where information flows seamlessly throughout the management infrastructure.\u003c/strong\u003e This facilitates decision making at the appropriate levels and helps establish a strong performance-management culture, with regular project meetings, well-defined decision processes (including escalation paths), structured performance dialogues, and designated physical spaces for project decision making (such as command centers).\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEnsure a strong connection between a project\u0026rsquo;s digital control tower and project performance management processes.\u003c/strong\u003e Accurately interpreting reliable data can help projects stick to schedule, improve productivity, and create a more cohesive workflow within the company by informing better project management processes.[[footnote 1]] With immediate access to comprehensive and accurate data, management teams can focus their attention on issues with the greatest potential to impact project outcomes instead of engaging in aimless discussions based on incomplete information. Storing this data in the cloud allows staff to access and contribute to discussions from any location. Yet even with perfect information availability, improved project outcomes require effective systems to support decision making and drive action. By making use of the right technical system, data can be better visualized and therefore interpreted, allowing managers to draw insights that enable better decision making with fewer risks. Correctly analyzing this data also ensures that leaders can make informed decisions and executives can see the full picture.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"}},"aboutTheAuthors":{"jsonValue":{"value":""}},"headline":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Managing schedule (and cost) risk"}},"footnotes":{"value":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/capabilities/operations/our-insights/increasing-transparency-in-megaproject-execution\"\u003eIncreasing transparency in megaproject execution\u003c/a\u003e,\u0026rdquo; McKinsey, August 21, 2023.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},"showShareTools":{"boolValue":true},"backgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"gradientDirection":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Bottom Right"},"value":{"value":"bottom-right"}}},"renderMode":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Collapsible"},"value":{"value":"default"}}},"isAboutAuthor":{"boolValue":false},"background":{"targetItem":null},"image":{"src":null,"alt":""}},{"mediaID":{"value":"authors"},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"\u003cp\u003eThis article is a collaborative effort by Pradhuman Aggarwal, Justin Dahl, \u003ca href=\"/our-people/dumitru-dediu\"\u003eDumitru Dediu\u003c/a\u003e, Sam Linder, and \u003ca href=\"/our-people/micah-smith\"\u003eMicah Smith\u003c/a\u003e, representing views from McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s Oil \u0026amp; Gas Practice.\u003c/p\u003e"}},"aboutTheAuthors":{"jsonValue":{"value":""}},"headline":{"jsonValue":{"value":"About the authors"}},"footnotes":{"value":""},"showShareTools":{"boolValue":false},"backgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"gradientDirection":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Bottom Right"},"value":{"value":"bottom-right"}}},"renderMode":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Collapsible"},"value":{"value":"default"}}},"isAboutAuthor":{"boolValue":false},"background":{"targetItem":null},"image":{"src":null,"alt":""}}]},"boxout":{"results":[]},"globalsidebar":{"results":[]},"video":{"results":[]},"scrollycontainer":{"results":[]},"bespokeinteractive":{"results":[]},"storycontainer":{"results":[]},"interactive":{"results":[]},"sectionheader":{"results":[]},"statementdisruptor":{"results":[]},"fullbleedphoto":{"results":[]},"tocitem":{"results":[]},"quizcontainer":{"results":[]},"generalup":{"results":[]},"twoupmedium":{"results":[]},"accordion":{"results":[]},"factoid":{"results":[]},"promobarwithquote":{"results":[]},"oneupmedium":{"results":[]},"oneupmediumquote":{"results":[]},"gridwall":{"results":[]},"twoupsmall":{"results":[]},"oneclicksubscribe":{"results":[]},"promobar":{"results":[]},"promobanner":{"results":[]},"sectionhero":{"results":[]},"threeuplinklist":{"results":[]},"table":{"results":[]},"explainertooltip":{"results":[]},"isFiveFiftyHorizontalArticle":{"boolValue":false},"fiveFifty":{"results":[]}},"contextItem":{"ancestors":[{"breadCrumbUrl":{"path":"/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights"},"breadCrumbTitle":{"value":"Our Insights"},"isMiniSite":{"boolValue":false},"displayName":"Oil \u0026 Gas Insights","template":{"id":"85FF05307883480F9A4C82123F72FFD8"}},{"breadCrumbUrl":{"path":"/industries/oil-and-gas/how-we-help-clients"},"breadCrumbTitle":null,"isMiniSite":{"boolValue":true},"displayName":"Oil \u0026 Gas","template":{"id":"414C6C64AD35440E9668CF39D8A18CCF"}},{"breadCrumbUrl":{"path":"/industries"},"breadCrumbTitle":{"value":"Industries"},"isMiniSite":{"boolValue":false},"displayName":"Industries","template":{"id":"85FF05307883480F9A4C82123F72FFD8"}},{"breadCrumbUrl":{"path":"/"},"breadCrumbTitle":{"value":""},"isMiniSite":{"boolValue":false},"displayName":"Home","template":{"id":"85FF05307883480F9A4C82123F72FFD8"}}]}}},"placeholders":{"main-area":[],"sidebar-area":[]}}]}},"itemId":"071abdf5-f8fc-4968-b3d3-d29b0208b923","pageEditing":false,"site":{"name":"website"},"pageState":"normal","language":"en","pageMetaData":{"alternateLanguages":[{"languageCode":"en","displayName":"English","url":"/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/crunch-time-in-the-north-american-lng-industry-how-to-meet-demand"}],"currentLanguage":"en","navigationLink":"industries","activeItemId":"{10891851-9CC2-4A39-8FB1-8CCCADC8B7C9}","miniSiteId":"{53CBFFC4-895F-4004-9F66-1264A87CE0EA}","officeCode":"","officeDisplayName":"","subscriptionPracticeData":null,"isAlaisedPage":false,"originalHostName":"www.mckinsey.com","updatedDate":"2024-03-05T17:08:12Z","createdDate":"2023-11-14T12:48:43Z","practice":{"isDefaultPractice":false,"name":"Energy, Resources \u0026 Materials","code":"N14","stickyTitle":"Sign up for emails on new Energy, Resources \u0026 Materials articles","stickySubtitle":"Never miss an insight. 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