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</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <div class="calendar__button-wrap ta-c"> <a class="btn btn--secondary" href="/China-In-Eurasia" title="Latest"> Latest </a> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <section> <div id="blogItems" class="arch-lay-blg article-list"> <article> <div class="article-list-item"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-xs-12"> <a class="title" href="/a/china-eu-india-ukraine-tension-kissinger-nixon-xi-putin/33328544.html" title="China In Eurasia Briefing: Is There A New Opening In Europe For China?"> <h2>China In Eurasia Briefing: Is There A New Opening In Europe For China?</h2> </a> <div class="publishing-details "> <div class="published"> <span class="date" > <time pubdate="pubdate" datetime="2025-02-26T10:26:33+01:00"> February 26, 2025 </time> </span> </div> <div class="links"> <ul class="links__list links__list--column"> <li class="links__item"> By <a class="links__item-link" href="/author/reid-standish/tt_uqi" title="Reid Standish">Reid Standish</a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="col-xs-12"> <div class="cover-media"> <figure class="media-image js-media-expand"> <div class="img-wrap"> <div class="thumb thumb16_9"> <img src="https://gdb.rferl.org/ea87ab4c-611c-4af8-8237-6a426b406ae6_cx0_cy6_cw0_w250_r1_s.jpg" alt="French President Emmanuel Macron (left), Chinese leader Xi Jinping (center), and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (right) leave after holding a trilateral talks in Paris in 2024. " /> </div> </div> <figcaption> <span class="caption">French President Emmanuel Macron (left), Chinese leader Xi Jinping (center), and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (right) leave after holding a trilateral talks in Paris in 2024. </span> </figcaption> </figure> </div> </div> <div class="col-xs-12 col-sm-12 col-md-2 pull-left article-share"> <div class="not-apply-to-sticky"> <aside class="share flex-column js-share--apply-sticky js-share--expandable js-share--horizontal"> <span class="label label--share stand-alone">Share</span> <ul class="share__list"> <li class="share__item"> <a href="https://facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https%3a%2f%2fwww.rferl.org%2fa%2fchina-eu-india-ukraine-tension-kissinger-nixon-xi-putin%2f33328544.html" data-analytics-text="share_on_facebook" title="Share on Facebook" target="_blank" class="btn btn--rounded btn-facebook js-social-btn"> <span class="ico ico--rounded ico-facebook ico--l"></span> </a> </li> <li class="share__item"> <a 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options" class="btn btn--rounded btn--show-more hidden"> <span class="ico ico--rounded ico-ellipsis ico--s"></span> </a> </li> </ul> </aside> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="col-xs-12 col-sm-12 col-md-10 pull-right"> <div class="wsw"> <p><em>Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.</em></p><p><em>I'm RFE/RL's China Global Affairs Correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.</em></p><h2 class="wsw__h2"><strong>Minding The Transatlantic Gap</strong></h2><p>China is looking to capitalize on a transatlantic rift between the United States and Europe that is widening as U.S. President Donald Trump looks to quickly end the war in Ukraine.</p><p>But how much of an opening is there actually for Beijing?</p><p><strong>Finding Perspective:</strong> The threat of tariffs, a<a class="wsw__a" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/18/vance-speech-munich-full-text-read-transcript-europe/"> war of words</a> at the Munich Security Conference earlier this month, U.S.-Russia talks that excluded Europe and Kyiv, and a standoff at the United Nations over how to commemorate the third anniversary of the war in Ukraine have all been recent fissures between Washington and European governments.</p><p>That brought new questions about relying on the United States to European capitals and left an opening for Beijing, which has been trying to woo back Europe over the past four years.</p><p>On the sidelines in Munich, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held bilateral meetings with several top European officials, including EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.</p><p>Spain's foreign minister seems to be at least more open to the idea of keeping China closer amid tensions with the United States.</p><p>Jose Manuel Albares <a class="wsw__a" href="https://www.ft.com/content/65abc8b2-d290-490c-b143-3f98e116124e"><u>told the Financial Times</u> </a>that the European Union should craft its own China policy and not follow the more confrontational line with Beijing advocated by those in the Trump administration.</p><p>"Europe must take its own decisions, on its own. And we have to decide when China can be a partner and when China is a competitor," Albares told the newspaper.</p><p><strong>How We Got Here</strong>: During Trump's first term in office, Washington pushed European governments to take a harder line on China. That led to the bloc labeling China a "systemic rival" in 2019.</p><p>The Chinese government's untransparent handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, trade, human rights, and supply chain concerns, and Beijing's backing of Russia throughout the war in Ukraine all saw that harder line solidify in Europe under former U.S. President Joe Biden's tenure.</p><p>Now amid growing transatlantic tensions, some European governments see following Trump's tough stance on China as a way to win over Washington. Others, like the Spanish government, are arguing to preserve vital economic ties with Beijing, especially amid growing uncertainty about the United States.</p><p>This has even led to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, one of Brussels's more hawkish voices on China, calling in January for a new effort to improve relations between Brussels and Beijing.</p><p><strong>A True Rift?</strong> Tensions on each side of the Atlantic are real.</p><p>Following his party's victory in elections on February 23, Friedrich Merz, Germany's chancellor-in-waiting for the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), said the Trump administration "does not care much about the fate of Europe" and that the Continent needs to act accordingly.</p><p>"My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the U.S.A.," he said.</p><p>Talk of a seismic shift in the geopolitical order is also under way in Brussels.</p><p>One EU official recently back from discussions with U.S. officials told RFE/RL that the White House's focus is on ending the war in Ukraine and that there is a "take it or leave it" attitude from Washington.</p><p>The Trump administration wants to "remove the Ukraine issue from the table and move on to other issues. It is becoming clear that Trump's goal is to rule the world together with Russia and China" and work toward "strategically separating them from each other," said the official, who was granted anonymity in order to discuss sensitive matters.</p><p><strong>Why It Matters:</strong> Europe may be grappling with a realignment, but that doesn't mean China is its only option to hedge.</p><p>As European leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer visit Washington, von der Leyen is set to arrive in India on February 27.</p><p>James Crabtree, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told me that "it's hard to imagine a better time to re-energize Europe's and India's historically lackluster ties" and that a focus of the trip will be technology cooperation.</p><p>"A meeting of the EU-India Trade and Technology Council -- only the second since its foundation in 2023 -- offers opportunities to deepen collaboration in areas ranging from artificial intelligence to clean technologies," he said.</p><p>China may also be short on opportunities, with most EU members unable to look past its support for Russia amid the war in Ukraine. The bloc's most recent sanctions package passed on February 24 once again included Chinese companies and individuals.</p><p>What is likely to emerge is a more fragmented Europe when it comes to China. While some governments look to countries like India, South Korea, and Japan to balance out their foreign policy, others -- such as the current Spanish government and Hungary -- will keep courting Chinese investment and create new openings for Beijing.</p><h2 class="wsw__h2"><strong>Three More Stories From Eurasia</strong></h2><p><strong>1. A Reverse Nixon?</strong></p><p>China publicly backed the Trump administration's recent talks with the Kremlin, <a class="wsw__a" href="https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-trump-xi-reset-ukraine-nixon-kissinger-rapprochement/33322010.html"><u>but analysts and former U.S. officials I spoke with</u> </a>mostly said the prospect of a U.S.-Russia reset is also making Beijing "nervous" about having less leverage over its partner.</p><p><strong>The Details:</strong> "While a complete rapprochement might not be in the cards, they're nervous because if Trump lifts sanctions on Russia, then Moscow's dependency on China decreases," Dennis Wilder, who was a top White House China adviser to former U.S. President George W. Bush, told me.</p><p>One of the hallmarks of Chinese leader Xi Jinping's foreign policy has been a burgeoning strategic partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin that's grown closer since Moscow's full-scale invasion in February 2022.</p><p>Beijing has propped up the Russian economy through enhanced trade and energy purchases while fueling the Kremlin's war effort with the supply of key goods as both Xi and Putin have found common ground in wanting to challenge the West and unseat the United States.</p><p>The fear of all that being derailed by a new type of U.S.-Russia relationship born out of a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine is real for Beijing.</p><p>Wilder says he's had conversations with "very senior Chinese officials" since Trump's election in November who have expressed concern about a potential U.S.-Russia reset.</p><p>He says they've used the phrase "Only Trump goes to Moscow," a play on the historical reference to former U.S. President Richard Nixon's landmark visit to Beijing in 1972, when he defied precedent and courted China to exploit its split with the Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War.</p><p><strong>2. But Can It Work?</strong></p><p>A grand bargain would be a major diplomatic feat, but it's something Trump administration officials have hinted at in public comments of late.</p><p><strong>What You Need To Know:</strong> The Trump administration has made clear it sees managing a long-term rivalry with China as its top foreign policy objective and may look to deprioritize regions like Europe and the Middle East in order to raise pressure on Beijing in Asia.</p><p>Following the talks in Riyadh, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the possibility for future "geopolitical and economic cooperation" between Washington and Moscow was among the key points discussed.</p><p>And <a class="wsw__a" href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/transcript-of-wsj-interview-with-jd-vance-f76a6ff4"><u>in an interview this month</u> </a>with The Wall Street Journal, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said Washington was prepared to reset the relationship with the Kremlin following an agreement over Ukraine as a move to end Russia's isolation and its growing dependence on China since the war began.</p><p>"It's not in Putin's interest to be the little brother in a coalition with China," Vance said.</p><p>The thinking is that even new cracks between the two powers may loosen Moscow's alignment with Beijing and could have a deterrent effect on China, especially if it decides to use military force to take Taiwan.</p><p>Still, both Beijing and Moscow are aware of what the White House is trying to do, and Beijing has made a point to show it and Moscow are still a tandem, including a recent phone call <strong>between Putin and Xi</strong> on the third anniversary of the war in Ukraine.</p><p>Steve Tsang, director of SOAS University London's China Institute, told me he believes Washington's efforts to reset its Russia ties are also not all bad news for Beijing.</p><p>"Xi does not want Putin to fail in the war, and so Trump delivering a peace that mostly meets Russian conditions is a positive," he said. "Who knows who will be the next U.S. president and if there will be a reversal of U.S. posture post-Trump."</p><p><strong>3. Taiwan Watches A New U.S. Line On Ukraine</strong></p><p>Ukrainians living in Taiwan and local supporters protested outside the de-facto Russian Embassy in Taipei on the eve of the third anniversary of Moscow's invasion.</p><p><strong>What It Means:</strong> The self-governing island has been a vocal supporter of Kyiv, which the Taiwanese government sees as a foil for its own tenuous geopolitical position where China has long threatened to invade and annex Taiwan if it refused to peacefully accept unification.</p><p>Those parallels have grown since Trump's election. The United States is Taiwan's largest military backer and its support is considered vital for its survival, but Trump's global shakeup, including launching negotiations with Russia without Ukraine and threatening to cut off future aid to Kyiv, has brought anxiety to Taiwan about a similar withdrawal of American assistance.</p><p>When I was in Taiwan in December, I spoke with several senior officials who said they were closely watching what happened to Kyiv on the battlefield and with the new U.S. administration.</p><p>So far, the White House has reaffirmed its support for Taiwan, but Washington has also threatened tariffs on the island's semiconductor industry, which is responsible for around 60 percent of world production for microchips and 90 percent of the most-advanced ones needed for the global AI boom.</p><h2 class="wsw__h2"><strong>Across The Supercontinent</strong></h2><p><strong>Choking Off Iranian Oil:</strong> Earlier this month, the United States brought in a new tranche of sanctions on Iranian oil, my colleague Kian Sharifi and I <a class="wsw__a" href="https://www.rferl.org/a/us-iran-china-oil-sanctions/33307061.html"><u>reported</u></a>. The move is seen as an opening shot against Tehran and Beijing -- Iran's top oil customer.</p><p><strong>New Bridge Deal: </strong>The Transport Ministry of Tajikistan and the Tajik branch of the Chinese company Zhejiang Communications Construction Group (ZCCC) signed a cooperation agreement for the construction of what will be the longest road bridge in Central Asia.</p><p><strong>New Tools For Tashkent:</strong> Uzbekistan showcased on February 25 newly purchased Chinese-made air-defense systems, including the FM-90 short-range surface-to-air missile system and the KS-1C medium-to-long-range air-defense system.</p><p><strong>One Thing To Watch</strong></p><p>A Chinese-crewed cargo ship is detained in Taiwan's southern port of Tainan after a key Taiwan-Penghu Internet cable was mysteriously severed.</p><p>Taiwanese prosecutors are investigating whether this was an accident or part of a broader pattern of disruptions to vital communication lines, but the country's Coast Guard<a class="wsw__a" href="https://x.com/JaimeOcon1/status/1894290784800969144"> <u>released footage</u> </a>of them apprehending the vessel.</p><p>The move comes amid <a class="wsw__a" href="https://www.rferl.org/a/taiwan-trump-xi-putin-undersea-cable-invasion/33279406.html"><u>growing tensions</u> </a>from a rise of so-called gray zone tactics, the term often used by Taiwanese officials to refer to the hybrid tactics used to intimidate the island but which remain below the threshold for war.</p><p><em>That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.</em></p><p><em>Until next time,</em></p><p><em>Reid Standish</em></p><p><em>If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe </em><a class="wsw__a" href="https://www.rferl.org/p/china-in-eurasia.html"><em><u>here</u></em></a><em>.</em></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </article> <article> <div class="article-list-item"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-xs-12"> <a class="title" href="/a/putin-trump-xi-reset-ukraine-nixon-kissinger-rapprochement/33322010.html" title="China 'Nervous' Over U.S.-Russia Reset, Despite Beijing's Public Support"> <h2>China 'Nervous' Over U.S.-Russia Reset, Despite Beijing's Public Support</h2> </a> <div class="publishing-details "> <div class="published"> <span class="date" > <time pubdate="pubdate" datetime="2025-02-21T00:01:00+01:00"> February 21, 2025 </time> </span> </div> <div class="links"> <ul class="links__list links__list--column"> <li class="links__item"> By <a class="links__item-link" href="/author/reid-standish/tt_uqi" title="Reid Standish">Reid Standish</a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="col-xs-12"> <div class="cover-media"> <figure class="media-image js-media-expand"> <div class="img-wrap"> <div class="thumb thumb16_9"> <img src="https://gdb.rferl.org/551bea2d-edec-441b-8485-ff262d1ad7a9_cx0_cy1_cw0_w250_r1_s.jpg" alt="U.S. President Donald Trump (left) speaks with Russian President Vladimir Putin after a summit in Finland in 2018. " /> </div> </div> <figcaption> <span class="caption">U.S. President Donald Trump (left) speaks with Russian President Vladimir Putin after a summit in Finland in 2018. </span> </figcaption> </figure> </div> </div> <div class="col-xs-12 col-sm-12 col-md-2 pull-left article-share"> <div class="not-apply-to-sticky"> <aside class="share flex-column js-share--apply-sticky js-share--expandable js-share--horizontal"> <span class="label label--share stand-alone">Share</span> <ul class="share__list"> <li class="share__item"> <a href="https://facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https%3a%2f%2fwww.rferl.org%2fa%2fputin-trump-xi-reset-ukraine-nixon-kissinger-rapprochement%2f33322010.html" data-analytics-text="share_on_facebook" title="Share on Facebook" target="_blank" class="btn btn--rounded btn-facebook js-social-btn"> <span class="ico ico--rounded ico-facebook ico--l"></span> </a> </li> <li class="share__item"> <a 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data-title-additional="Fewer options" class="btn btn--rounded btn--show-more hidden"> <span class="ico ico--rounded ico-ellipsis ico--s"></span> </a> </li> </ul> </aside> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="col-xs-12 col-sm-12 col-md-10 pull-right"> <div class="wsw"> <p>China's top diplomat says that a "window for peace" is opening amid a quickening pace of U.S. diplomacy around ending the war in Ukraine and steps by Washington to normalize relations with Moscow.</p><p>“China supports all efforts dedicated to peace, including the recent consensus reached by the United States and Russia,” and was willing to play a “constructive role” in peace talks, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told ministers a Group of 20 summit in South Africa on February 21, according to a <a class="wsw__a" href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/wjbzhd/202502/t20250221_11559792.shtml" target="_blank"><strong>statement</strong></a>.</p><p>That statement came after high-stakes U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh that sparked fears in Kyiv and European capitals about being sidelined and saddled with a peace deal that favors Russia.</p><p>But despite Wang's public comments, experts and former officials believe that the prospect of a rapprochement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump is also fueling unease in China.</p><div data-owner-ct="None" data-inline="False"> <div class="media-block also-read"> <a class="img-wrap img-wrap--size-3 also-read__img" href="/a/33320765.html" title="Can The U.S. And Russia Impose A Peace Deal On Ukraine?"> <span class="thumb thumb16_9"> <noscript class="nojs-img"> <img src="https://gdb.rferl.org/DFD9BCB8-70C4-4D65-87E6-16BD7401C992_cx0_cy3_cw0_w100_r1.jpg" alt="Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and U.S. President Donald Trump walk together during a G20 leaders summit in Japan in 2019. "> </noscript> <img data-src="https://gdb.rferl.org/DFD9BCB8-70C4-4D65-87E6-16BD7401C992_cx0_cy3_cw0_w100_r1.jpg" alt="Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and U.S. President Donald Trump walk together during a G20 leaders summit in Japan in 2019. " /> </span> </a> <div class="media-block__content also-read__body also-read__body--h"> <a href="/a/33320765.html" title="Can The U.S. And Russia Impose A Peace Deal On Ukraine?"> <span class="also-read__text--label"> SEE ALSO: </span> <h4 class="media-block__title media-block__title--size-3 also-read__text p-0"> Can The U.S. And Russia Impose A Peace Deal On Ukraine? </h4> </a> </div> </div> </div><p>“The Chinese have seen this coming since Trump was elected and signaled that he wanted to quickly end the war in Ukraine,” Dennis Wilder, who was a top White House China adviser to former U.S. President George W. Bush, told RFE/RL. “While a complete rapprochement might not be in the cards, they’re nervous because if Trump lifts sanctions on Russia, then Moscow’s dependency on China decreases.”</p><p>One of the hallmarks of Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s foreign policy has been a burgeoning strategic partnership with Putin that’s grown closer since Moscow’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Beijing has propped up the Russian economy through enhanced trade and energy purchases while fueling the Kremlin’s war effort with the supply of key goods as both Xi and Putin have found common ground in wanting to challenge the West and unseat the United States.</p><p>And fear of all that being derailed by a new type of U.S.-Russia relationship born out of a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine -- as was raised this week during talks in Saudi Arabia -- is real for Beijing.</p><div data-owner-ct="None" data-inline="False"> <div class="media-block also-read"> <a class="img-wrap img-wrap--size-3 also-read__img" href="/a/zelenskyy-ukraine-trump-putin-war-peace-talks/33320679.html" title="Excluded From Talks, Bruised By Trump, Zelenskyy Calls For ‘More Truth’"> <span class="thumb thumb16_9"> <noscript class="nojs-img"> <img src="https://gdb.rferl.org/ca3cef4a-87ac-4d38-bba6-380e4d0c8e42_w100_r1.jpg" alt="Outgunned and outmanned, exhausted Ukrainian troops are struggling to hold back Russian advance across the 1,100-kilometer front line. "> </noscript> <img data-src="https://gdb.rferl.org/ca3cef4a-87ac-4d38-bba6-380e4d0c8e42_w100_r1.jpg" alt="Outgunned and outmanned, exhausted Ukrainian troops are struggling to hold back Russian advance across the 1,100-kilometer front line. " /> </span> </a> <div class="media-block__content also-read__body also-read__body--h"> <a href="/a/zelenskyy-ukraine-trump-putin-war-peace-talks/33320679.html" title="Excluded From Talks, Bruised By Trump, Zelenskyy Calls For ‘More Truth’"> <span class="also-read__text--label"> SEE ALSO: </span> <h4 class="media-block__title media-block__title--size-3 also-read__text p-0"> Excluded From Talks, Bruised By Trump, Zelenskyy Calls For ‘More Truth’ </h4> </a> </div> </div> </div><p>Wilder says that he’s had conversations with “very senior Chinese officials” since Trump’s election in November who have expressed concern about a potential U.S.-Russia reset.</p><p>He says they’ve used the phrase “only Trump goes to Moscow,” a play on the historical reference to former U.S. President Richard Nixon’s landmark visit to Beijing in 1972, when he defied precedent and courted China to exploit its split with the Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War. Efforts to drive a wedge between Beijing and Moscow by warming up to Russia have been termed by some analysts as a “reverse Nixon.”</p><p>“In the same way as Nixon with China policy, they see Trump as someone who is uniquely placed to run against the current nature of U.S. policy towards Russia and could even travel to Moscow,” Wilder said. “This doesn’t mean the Chinese think that the Russians will break relations, but their strong alignment today could diminish.”</p><p><strong><big>What’s Washington’s Strategy?</big></strong></p><p>It remains to be seen what the Trump administration’s outreach will bear fruit, but following a phone call this month with Putin, recent U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh, and a deepening rift with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over peace talks, the White House is charting a new course for the war in Ukraine and its ties with Moscow. </p><div data-owner-ct="None" data-inline="False"> <div class="media-block also-read"> <a class="img-wrap img-wrap--size-3 also-read__img" href="/a/gop-ukraine-senior-republicans-trump-stance/33321583.html" title="Trump 'Very Frustrated' With Zelenskyy, U.S. National Security Adviser Says"> <span class="thumb thumb16_9"> <noscript class="nojs-img"> <img src="https://gdb.rferl.org/81ff7f60-be7e-46db-b42f-b5e7b49c0138_cx4_cy9_cw92_w100_r1.jpg" alt="U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy meet in Kyiv on February 20."> </noscript> <img data-src="https://gdb.rferl.org/81ff7f60-be7e-46db-b42f-b5e7b49c0138_cx4_cy9_cw92_w100_r1.jpg" alt="U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy meet in Kyiv on February 20." /> </span> </a> <div class="media-block__content also-read__body also-read__body--h"> <a href="/a/gop-ukraine-senior-republicans-trump-stance/33321583.html" title="Trump 'Very Frustrated' With Zelenskyy, U.S. National Security Adviser Says"> <span class="also-read__text--label"> SEE ALSO: </span> <h4 class="media-block__title media-block__title--size-3 also-read__text p-0"> Trump 'Very Frustrated' With Zelenskyy, U.S. National Security Adviser Says </h4> </a> </div> </div> </div><p>“We seem to be witnessing not a reset but a wholesale realignment of U.S.-Russian relations,” Lucian Kim, senior Ukraine analyst at the International Crisis Group, told RFE/RL. “In that sense, the war in Ukraine is not a call to resist Russian aggression but a roadblock to closer cooperation between Washington and Moscow.”</p><p>For Beijing, this development comes with plenty of worrisome hypotheticals, including allowing Washington to build up its military footprint in the Pacific and leaving China more geopolitically exposed in the event of a crisis with Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing claims as its own.</p><div data-owner-ct="None" data-inline="False"> <div class="media-block also-read"> <a class="img-wrap img-wrap--size-3 also-read__img" href="/a/taiwan-trump-xi-putin-undersea-cable-invasion/33279406.html" title="From Ukraine To The Pacific, Trump Administration Faces New Threats From China-Russia Partnership"> <span class="thumb thumb16_9"> <noscript class="nojs-img"> <img src="https://gdb.rferl.org/01000000-0aff-0242-09a5-08dc756fc264_w100_r1.jpg" alt="Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping review a military honor guard during an official welcoming ceremony in Beijing in May. "> </noscript> <img data-src="https://gdb.rferl.org/01000000-0aff-0242-09a5-08dc756fc264_w100_r1.jpg" alt="Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping review a military honor guard during an official welcoming ceremony in Beijing in May. " /> </span> </a> <div class="media-block__content also-read__body also-read__body--h"> <a href="/a/taiwan-trump-xi-putin-undersea-cable-invasion/33279406.html" title="From Ukraine To The Pacific, Trump Administration Faces New Threats From China-Russia Partnership"> <span class="also-read__text--label"> SEE ALSO: </span> <h4 class="media-block__title media-block__title--size-3 also-read__text p-0"> From Ukraine To The Pacific, Trump Administration Faces New Threats From China-Russia Partnership </h4> </a> </div> </div> </div><p>“I think China would prefer to see a weak Russia and even continuing the Ukraine war would better serve Beijing as that would have the United States’ focus scattered away from the Indo-Pacific,” Sari Arho Havren, an associate fellow at London's Royal United Services Institute, told RFE/RL.</p><p>The Trump administration has made clear it sees managing a long-term rivalry with China as its top foreign policy objective and may look to deprioritize regions like Europe and the Middle East in order to raise pressure on Beijing in Asia.</p><p>Senior U.S. officials have also telegraphed in recent comments that cracking the China-Russia partnership could be part of the motivation in normalizing ties with Moscow.</p><p>Following the talks in Riyadh, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the possibility for future “geopolitical and economic cooperation” between Washington and Moscow was among the key points discussed.</p><p>A few days earlier at the Munich Security Conference, Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, said that the United States aimed “to force” Putin into actions he was “uncomfortable with,” including disrupting Moscow’s ties with China, Iran, and North Korea.</p><div data-owner-ct="None" data-inline="False"> <div class="media-block also-read"> <a class="img-wrap img-wrap--size-3 also-read__img" href="/a/russia-ukraine-putin-trump-talks-rubio-lavrov-saudi-arabia/33318115.html" title="What To Watch As U.S.-Russia Talks Begin Over Ukraine War "> <span class="thumb thumb16_9"> <noscript class="nojs-img"> <img src="https://gdb.rferl.org/3cb622ba-4686-4f7e-a369-69384522dad3_cx1_cy13_cw94_w100_r1.jpg" alt="U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (second left), Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (right) and other U.S. and Russian officials attend a meeting with a Saudi delegation in Riyadh on February 18. "> </noscript> <img data-src="https://gdb.rferl.org/3cb622ba-4686-4f7e-a369-69384522dad3_cx1_cy13_cw94_w100_r1.jpg" alt="U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (second left), Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (right) and other U.S. and Russian officials attend a meeting with a Saudi delegation in Riyadh on February 18. " /> </span> </a> <div class="media-block__content also-read__body also-read__body--h"> <a href="/a/russia-ukraine-putin-trump-talks-rubio-lavrov-saudi-arabia/33318115.html" title="What To Watch As U.S.-Russia Talks Begin Over Ukraine War "> <span class="also-read__text--label"> SEE ALSO: </span> <h4 class="media-block__title media-block__title--size-3 also-read__text p-0"> What To Watch As U.S.-Russia Talks Begin Over Ukraine War </h4> </a> </div> </div> </div><p>In a February 14 <a class="wsw__a" href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/transcript-of-wsj-interview-with-jd-vance-f76a6ff4" target="_blank">interview with The Wall Street Journal</a>, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said that Washington was prepared to reset the relationship with the Kremlin following an agreement over Ukraine as a move to end Russia’s isolation and its growing dependence on China since the war began.</p><p>“It’s not in Putin’s interest to be the little brother in a coalition with China,” Vance said.</p><p>Trying to diminish the two countries’ partnership has also been on the radar of Trump administration officials for some time.</p><p>Robert O’Brien, who served as national security adviser under Trump from 2019 to 2021, said in an interview last year that the White House had discussed the strategy during his tenure and that reaching a settlement for the war in Ukraine is a vital first step in kickstarting that process.</p><p>“Until we get the Ukrainian situation solved, we’re not going to have a chance to make a run at Russia,” he <a class="wsw__a" href="https://www.thewirechina.com/2024/06/30/robert-obrien-on-americas-greatest-foreign-policy-failure-since-the-1930s/?mod=djemchina" target="_blank">told the Wire China</a> in June.</p><p><strong><big>Can Trump Break China and Russia Apart?</big></strong></p><p>Arho Havren says that the likelihood of the United States engineering a formal split between Beijing and Moscow are small -- especially while Putin remains in office, given the relationship that he’s forged with Xi.</p><p>But even new cracks between the two powers may loosen Moscow’s alignment with Beijing and could have a deterrent effect on China, especially if it decides to use military force to take Taiwan, something that U.S. policymakers warn is a growing possibility.</p><div class="wsw__embed"> <div class="media-pholder media-pholder--video "> <div class="c-sticky-container" data-poster="https://gdb.rferl.org/c2ab232d-a683-4677-bc21-058ee6774505_w250_r1.png"> <div class="c-sticky-element" data-sp_api="pangea-video" data-persistent data-persistent-browse-out > <div class="c-mmp c-mmp--enabled c-mmp--loading c-mmp--video c-mmp--standard c-mmp--has-poster c-sticky-element__swipe-el" data-player_id="" data-title="With An Eye On Ukraine, Taiwan Prepares For Trump 2.0 " data-hide-title="False" data-breakpoint_s="320" data-breakpoint_m="640" data-breakpoint_l="992" data-hlsjs-src="/Scripts/responsive/hls.b" data-bypass-dash-for-vod="true" 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js-btn-settings-overlay" title="source switch"> <span class="ico ico-settings m-0"></span> </span> <span class="c-mmp__cpanel-btn c-mmp__cpanel-btn--settings-expand js-btn-settings-expand" title="source switch"> <span class="ico ico-settings m-0"></span> </span> <div class="c-mmp__expander c-mmp__expander--sources js-c-mmp__expander--sources"> <div class="c-mmp__expander-content js-sources"></div> </div> </div> <a href="/embed/player/Article/33276339.html?type=video&FullScreenMode=True" target="_blank" rel="noopener" class="c-mmp__cpanel-btn c-mmp__cpanel-btn--fullscreen js-btn-fullscreen" title="fullscreen"> <span class="ico ico-fullscreen m-0"></span> </a> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div><p>“Even if their ties remain strong, historically there is distrust between them that won’t go away,” she said.</p><p>But while the Trump administration’s diplomacy is moving at a dizzying pace, it’s also still in its early stages and more developments could be around the corner.</p><p>Steve Tsang, director of SOAS University London's China Institute, says that Washington’s efforts to reset Russia ties are also not all bad news for Beijing.</p><p>“Xi does not want Putin to fail in the war, and so Trump delivering a peace that mostly meets Russian conditions is a positive,” he told RFE/RL. “Who knows who will be the next U.S. president and if there will be a reversal of U.S. posture post-Trump.”</p><p>In another development that could further complicate things, Trump said on February 19 that he expects Xi to visit Washington and that he’s open to reaching a trade agreement with China, potentially as part of a wide-ranging deal with Beijing.</p><p>“Everything is moving very quickly,” Arho Havren said. “China isn’t happy with what it sees right now, but there is room for that to change.”</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </article> </div> </section> <p class="buttons btn--load-more"> <a class="btn link-showMore btn__text" data-ajax="true" 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