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class="article-body__container__3ypuX over-6-para"><div data-testid="primary-image" class="article-body__primary-asset__2nVOM" role="figure" aria-describedby="primary-image-caption"><figure class="primary-image__container__3_KhI"><div data-testid="Image" class="primary-image__image__1zwAE"><div class="styles__image-container__3hkY5 styles__fill__22EeH styles__center_center__1CNY5 styles__apply-ratio__1JYnB" style="--aspect-ratio:1.5205978156735007"><img src="https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/6HPEXWDUTBI35NHI2ENCOHF6TM.jpg?auth=bddd7d3fd1ad0a8e0ec06cba85ce648b6e9f2bb805725bef64a50d075ccb166f&width=7936&quality=80" srcSet="https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/6HPEXWDUTBI35NHI2ENCOHF6TM.jpg?auth=bddd7d3fd1ad0a8e0ec06cba85ce648b6e9f2bb805725bef64a50d075ccb166f&width=480&quality=80 480w,https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/6HPEXWDUTBI35NHI2ENCOHF6TM.jpg?auth=bddd7d3fd1ad0a8e0ec06cba85ce648b6e9f2bb805725bef64a50d075ccb166f&width=640&quality=80 640w,https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/6HPEXWDUTBI35NHI2ENCOHF6TM.jpg?auth=bddd7d3fd1ad0a8e0ec06cba85ce648b6e9f2bb805725bef64a50d075ccb166f&width=720&quality=80 720w,https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/6HPEXWDUTBI35NHI2ENCOHF6TM.jpg?auth=bddd7d3fd1ad0a8e0ec06cba85ce648b6e9f2bb805725bef64a50d075ccb166f&width=960&quality=80 960w,https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/6HPEXWDUTBI35NHI2ENCOHF6TM.jpg?auth=bddd7d3fd1ad0a8e0ec06cba85ce648b6e9f2bb805725bef64a50d075ccb166f&width=1080&quality=80 1080w,https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/6HPEXWDUTBI35NHI2ENCOHF6TM.jpg?auth=bddd7d3fd1ad0a8e0ec06cba85ce648b6e9f2bb805725bef64a50d075ccb166f&width=1200&quality=80 1200w" sizes="(min-width: 1024px) 560px, (min-width: 1440px) 700px, 100vw" width="7936" height="5219" alt="コラム：曖昧すぎるデフレの定義、国民が望むは「インフレ脱却」＝唐鎌大輔氏"/></div></div><div data-testid="Body" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__regular__2N1Xr text__ultra_small__37j9j body__full_width__ekUdw body__ultra_small_body__1lUQl primary-image__caption__3Ayt0"><span>　石破茂首相は自民党総裁選後の会見で「デフレからの完全脱却は首相就任後３年間で達成する」と述べたが、この発言に違和感を覚えた向きが多かったようだ。総選挙を控える状況で石破新政権への評価を下すのは尚早である。ただ、デフレ脱却を声高に叫ばれると、「それは違う」と感じるのが世論の大半だということも理解できる。唐鎌大輔氏のコラム。東京都内で２０２２年撮影（２０２４年　ロイター/Kim Kyung-Hoon）</span></div></figure></div><div class="article-body__content__17Yit"><div data-testid="paragraph-0" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__regular__2N1Xr text__small__1kGq2 body__full_width__ekUdw body__small_body__2vQyf article-body__paragraph__2-BtD">［東京　１５日］ - 石破茂首相は自民党総裁選後の会見で「デフレからの完全脱却は首相就任後３年間で達成する」と述べたが、この発言に違和感を覚えた向きが多かったようだ。総選挙を控える状況で石破新政権への評価を下すのは尚早である。ただ、デフレ脱却を声高に叫ばれると、「それは違う」と感じるのが世論の大半だということも理解できる。</div><div data-testid="paragraph-1" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__regular__2N1Xr text__small__1kGq2 body__full_width__ekUdw body__small_body__2vQyf article-body__paragraph__2-BtD">＜国民が望むのは「インフレ脱却」＞</div><div data-testid="paragraph-2" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__regular__2N1Xr text__small__1kGq2 body__full_width__ekUdw body__small_body__2vQyf article-body__paragraph__2-BtD">というのも、国民が望むのは「デフレ脱却」ではなく恐らく「インフレ脱却」の方が近いからだ。政界全体で物価高対策が争点化し、実質賃金のプラス転化とその定着が希求される状況を踏まえれば、今の日本経済の足かせとなっているのは「上がる物価（インフレ）」であって「上がらない物価（デフレ）」ではない。</div><div data-testid="paragraph-3" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__regular__2N1Xr text__small__1kGq2 body__full_width__ekUdw body__small_body__2vQyf article-body__paragraph__2-BtD">例えば、実質賃金の低迷は続いている。８月毎月勤労統計では実質賃金が前年同月比マイナス０．６％と３カ月ぶりのマイナスに転落した。６月分が２０２２年３月以来、実に２年３カ月ぶりにプラスとなったことが話題になり、７月分も増勢が維持されたが、この２カ月間は特別給与すなわち賞与による一時的な押し上げが反映された結果でもあった。８月も持続性を判断する上で重要な項目である「決まって支給する給与」が同プラス３．０％と３２年４カ月ぶりの高い伸びを示したものの、持ち家の帰属家賃を除く消費者物価指数（ＣＰＩ）が７月の同プラス３．２％から８月は同プラス３．５％へ加速する中、実質賃金がマイナスに押しやられている。円安・資源高発・輸入物価経由の一般物価上昇が家計部門の所得環境を損なっている状況は否めない。</div><div class="article-body__element__2p5pI"></div><div data-testid="paragraph-4" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__regular__2N1Xr text__small__1kGq2 body__full_width__ekUdw body__small_body__2vQyf article-body__paragraph__2-BtD">＜「デフレの定義」を整理する時＞</div><div data-testid="paragraph-5" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__regular__2N1Xr text__small__1kGq2 body__full_width__ekUdw body__small_body__2vQyf article-body__paragraph__2-BtD">では、「上がる物価（インフレ）」が問題視される現状を踏まえ政府がデフレ脱却宣言に踏み切れば良いのだろうか。それも簡単ではない。脱却宣言を受けた世論は恐らく「生活は苦しいままだ」と政権への反意を強める可能性がある。だからこそ岸田政権もデフレ脱却宣言への期待が一時期浮上しながらも、遂にそこへ至ることは無かった。デフレは、そこからの脱却を目標化することも、そこからの脱却を宣言することも世論が違和感を覚えるという難しい状況にある。</div><div data-testid="paragraph-6" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__regular__2N1Xr text__small__1kGq2 body__full_width__ekUdw body__small_body__2vQyf article-body__paragraph__2-BtD">なぜ、このような状況になっているのか。ひとえに「デフレの定義」が曖昧なまま放置されているからだろう。何となく景気が冴えない状況を総称してデフレという言葉に集約しているため、あらゆる経済主体にとって使い勝手の良い言葉になりがちなのである。しかし、「デフレの定義」は経済主体にとって異なるように感じる。</div><div data-testid="paragraph-7" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__regular__2N1Xr text__small__1kGq2 body__full_width__ekUdw body__small_body__2vQyf article-body__paragraph__2-BtD">１９９０年代後半以降、デフレとは政府・日銀にとっては「ＣＰＩの低迷」であったが、企業にとっては長年続く「円高・株安」であり、海外投資家にとってもやはり「円高・株安」であったように筆者は考えている。異次元緩和が起動する２０１３年以前、日本経済にとって慢性的な円高・株安が宿痾（しゅくあ）のように考えられていた。実際、過去に行われた日銀の追加緩和はそのほとんどが円高・株安への対処だったはずだ。そして慢性的な円高ゆえに輸入物価も抑制され、一般物価も上がりにくい状況があった（もちろん物価が上がらなかったのは円高のせいだけではない）。少なくとも約１０年前まではデフレという言葉は多くの経済主体にとって最大公約数を捉える便利なフレーズであった。</div><div class="article-body__element__2p5pI"></div><div data-testid="paragraph-8" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__regular__2N1Xr text__small__1kGq2 body__full_width__ekUdw body__small_body__2vQyf article-body__paragraph__2-BtD">特に「ＣＰＩの低迷」という表層的な状況の解決に傾倒したのが政府・日銀が総力を挙げた「アベノミクス」であり、象徴的には黒田東彦体制下での異次元緩和であった。その余波で継続される金融緩和路線とこれを一因とする円安、さらに資源高の影響も相まって「ＣＰＩの低迷」という表層的な状況は現状では解消されているし、円安を起爆剤として株高も実現している。現状、「ＣＰＩの低迷」や「円高・株安」という意味でのデフレに関し、脱却は完了済みと言っても差し支えないだろう。</div><div data-testid="paragraph-9" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__regular__2N1Xr text__small__1kGq2 body__full_width__ekUdw body__small_body__2vQyf article-body__paragraph__2-BtD">＜国民にとってのデフレとは「実質賃金の低迷」＞</div><div data-testid="paragraph-10" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__regular__2N1Xr text__small__1kGq2 body__full_width__ekUdw body__small_body__2vQyf article-body__paragraph__2-BtD">しかし、家計部門（国民）においては「こんなはずではなかった」という感情が強いだろう。それは家計部門にとってのデフレとは「実質賃金の低迷」だったからではないかと思う。日銀の「生活意識に関するアンケート調査（２４年９月分）」では「物価に関する受け止め」に関し８３．６％が「どちらかと言えば、困ったことだ」と回答している。そもそもデフレという現象に対し、政府・日銀と家計では問題意識の置きどころが同じではない。物価に関し、前者は上がって欲しいが後者は上がって欲しくないという認識相違がある。</div><div class="article-body__element__2p5pI"></div><div data-testid="paragraph-11" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__regular__2N1Xr text__small__1kGq2 body__full_width__ekUdw body__small_body__2vQyf article-body__paragraph__2-BtD">日本の家計部門は長年、名目・実質双方のベースで上がらない賃金を強いられてきた。「慢性的な不況」と「実質賃金の低迷」がデフレという便利なフレーズに押し込められ「デフレを脱却しなければならない」という価値観が家計部門に強く根付いているように思う。その認識でも最近までは大きな問題にならなかったが、インフレが定着したことで家計部門とそれ以外の間で「デフレの定義」の差異が浮き彫りになってきているのが現状に見受けられる。</div><div data-testid="paragraph-12" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__regular__2N1Xr text__small__1kGq2 body__full_width__ekUdw body__small_body__2vQyf article-body__paragraph__2-BtD">＜「デフレ」の使用に終止符を＞</div><div data-testid="paragraph-13" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__regular__2N1Xr text__small__1kGq2 body__full_width__ekUdw body__small_body__2vQyf article-body__paragraph__2-BtD">今回、石破首相が口にしたデフレ脱却は、本来的に政府・日銀が念頭に置いていた「ＣＰＩの低迷」という意味ではなく、おそらく家計部門が抱いている「実質賃金の低迷」という意味で使ったのだろう。しかし、多くの国民にはその真意が伝わっていないかもしれない。額面通り受け止めれば、物価上昇を望む政治からの情報発信のように見えかねないため、石破首相がデフレ脱却を強調するほど家計部門は「何もわかっていない」という反感を覚えてしまう（国民はデフレという言葉をそこまで深く考えていないとも言える）。</div><div class="article-body__element__2p5pI"></div><div data-testid="paragraph-14" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__regular__2N1Xr text__small__1kGq2 body__full_width__ekUdw body__small_body__2vQyf article-body__paragraph__2-BtD">今後、政府は「ＣＰＩの低迷」という意味でのデフレはもう終わったということを説明した上で、デフレという言葉から少しずつフェードアウトし、その使用に終止符を打つ必要があるのではないか。政治的な痛みを覚悟で一気呵成（かせい）にデフレ脱却宣言をしても良いかもしれない。案外、物価高で困っている今ならば納得感を得られる可能性もある。その上で本当の問題はインフレ脱却、これに伴う「実質賃金の低迷」の解消であることを強調すれば良いだろう。何らかの形でデフレというフレーズに対する意識変革を起こさなければ、多くの国民が小さくない違和感を抱きながら、政治のデフレ脱却論議に付き合わされる状況が続くことになる。「実質賃金の低迷」の遠因となっている円安およびこれとセットと考えられている円金利の長期低迷に終止符を打つことが、実体経済が復調するための迂遠な道に見えて王道に思える。</div><div data-testid="paragraph-15" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__regular__2N1Xr text__small__1kGq2 body__full_width__ekUdw body__small_body__2vQyf article-body__paragraph__2-BtD">＜円安と金利上昇の二者択一＞</div><div data-testid="paragraph-16" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__regular__2N1Xr text__small__1kGq2 body__full_width__ekUdw body__small_body__2vQyf article-body__paragraph__2-BtD">誰がリーダーになろうと円安か金利上昇のいずれかは受け入れる必要がある。為替を制御するのが難しい以上、緩やかな金利上昇を甘受した上で円安抑制を図るしかあるまい。もちろん、日銀の連続利上げが難しいことは理解できる。ただ、わざわざ政治的にその運営をけん制するような所作は不必要な円安を招くリスクがあるため、控えた方が良い。この点、石破首相は１２日の自民党党首討論会で「政府が何を言ったとしても、日銀は日銀として独自の判断がある」と述べており、恐らく正しい問題意識を備えているように思えた。円安は「実質賃金の低迷」を助長するのだから家計部門はそれを良く思わないし、最終的には時の政権への批判として返ってくる可能性が高い。現状、日銀は内外金融情勢を見極めながら正常化に動こうとしている。積極的に利上げを応援する必要はないが、政治からノイズを増やしてその見極めを難しくする必要もない。</div><div data-testid="paragraph-17" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__regular__2N1Xr text__small__1kGq2 body__full_width__ekUdw body__small_body__2vQyf article-body__paragraph__2-BtD">編集：宗えりか</div><div data-testid="paragraph-18" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__regular__2N1Xr text__small__1kGq2 body__full_width__ekUdw body__small_body__2vQyf article-body__paragraph__2-BtD">（本コラムは、ロイター外国為替フォーラムに掲載されたものです。筆者の個人的見解に基づいて書かれています）</div><div data-testid="paragraph-19" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__regular__2N1Xr text__small__1kGq2 body__full_width__ekUdw body__small_body__2vQyf article-body__paragraph__2-BtD">＊唐鎌大輔氏は、みずほ銀行のチーフマーケット・エコノミスト。２００４年慶應義塾大学経済学部卒業後、日本貿易振興機構（ジェトロ）入構。０６年から日本経済研究センター、０７年からは欧州委員会経済金融総局（ベルギー）に出向。２００８年１０月より、みずほコーポレート銀行（現みずほ銀行）。欧州委員会出向時には、日本人唯一のエコノミストとしてＥＵ経済見通しの作成などに携わった。著書に「欧州リスク：日本化・円化・日銀化」（東洋経済新報社、２０１４年７月）、「ＥＣＢ欧州中央銀行：組織、戦略から銀行監督まで」（東洋経済新報社、２０１７年１１月）。新聞・ＴＶなどメディア出演多数。</div><div data-testid="paragraph-20" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__regular__2N1Xr text__small__1kGq2 body__full_width__ekUdw body__small_body__2vQyf 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style="border:0;clip:rect(0 0 0 0);clip-path:inset(50%);height:1px;margin:-1px;overflow:hidden;padding:0;position:absolute;width:1px;white-space:nowrap">category</span></a> · <time dateTime="2024-11-28T07:49:17Z">2024年11月28日 · 午前 7:49 UTC</time></span><p data-testid="Body" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__regular__2N1Xr text__large__nEccO body__base__22dCE body__large_body__FV5_X media-story-card__description__2icjO">イスラエルとレバノンの親イラン民兵組織ヒズボラの戦闘を巡る停戦合意は、中東情勢の緊張緩和に向けた重要な一歩であり、理論的には石油価格の下落につながるはずだ。米国とフランスが仲介したこの合意により、石油の地政学的リスクプレミアムはある面で低下した。しかしイランの出方とトランプ米次期政権の発足は重大な要因であり、石油価格を押し上げる力として働き続けるだろう。</p></div></div></li><li class="story-collection__list-item__j4SQe story-collection__story__LeZ29 story-collection__default__G33_I story-collection__with-spacing__1E6N5" id="G2BCDX4TNZIT7NK4UDJJDXIO5U" data-testid="one_hero_and_two_columns"><div data-testid="MediaStoryCard" class="media-story-card__hub__3mHOR story-card"><div 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type="application/javascript">window.Fusion=window.Fusion||{};Fusion.arcSite="reuters-japan";Fusion.contextPath="/pf";Fusion.deployment="227";Fusion.globalContent={"statusCode":200,"message":"Success","result":{"id":"MHG5L7AUUFOFHA5HPLDKUODSFM","canonical_url":"/opinion/forex-forum/MHG5L7AUUFOFHA5HPLDKUODSFM-2024-10-15/","website":"reuters-japan","web":"曖昧すぎるデフレの定義、国民が望むは「インフレ脱却」＝唐鎌大輔氏","headline_feature":"COLUMN","published_time":"2024-10-15T03:44:30.02Z","content_code":"metered","source":{"name":"Package","original_name":"ロイター編集"},"properties":{"id":"NXFCEHZA5ZIGTMDWIVPWEHKNJU"},"dateline":["［東京　１５日］"],"language":"ja","slug":"JA-COLUMN-曖昧すぎるデフレの定義、国民が望むは「インフレ脱却」＝唐鎌大輔氏","version":"0.10.10","shared_url":"/opinion/forex-forum/MHG5L7AUUFOFHA5HPLDKUODSFM-2024-10-15/","created_date":"2024-10-15T03:37:06.805Z","type":"story","title":"曖昧すぎるデフレの定義、国民が望むは「インフレ脱却」＝唐鎌大輔氏","basic_headline":"曖昧すぎるデフレの定義、国民が望むは「インフレ脱却」＝唐鎌大輔氏","distributor":"ロイター編集","description":"石破茂首相は自民党総裁選後の会見で「デフレからの完全脱却は首相就任後３年間で達成する」と述べたが、この発言に違和感を覚えた向きが多かったようだ。総選挙を控える状況で石破新政権への評価を下すのは尚早である。ただ、デフレ脱却を声高に叫ばれると、「それは違う」と感じるのが世論の大半だということも理解できる。","primary_media_type":"image","primary_tag":{"short_bio":"Sustainable Markets","description":"Sustainable Markets","slug":"rsbi-sustainable-markets","text":"RSBI:SUSTAINABLE-MARKETS","topic_url":"/tags/sustainable-markets/"},"excerpt":{"content":"石破茂首相は自民党総裁選後の会見で「デフレからの完全脱却は首相就任後３年間で達成する」と述べたが、この発言に違和感を覚えた向きが多かったようだ。総選挙を控える状況で石破新政権への評価を下すのは尚早である。ただ、デフレ脱却を声高に叫ばれると、「それは違う」と感じるのが世論の大半だということも理解できる。","type":"paragraph"},"word_count":23,"read_minutes":8,"header_controls":{"premium_dek":"YES","hero_image_ratio":"16:9","hero_image_gradient":"None","hero_image_text_placement":"Bottom dark"},"headlines":{"basic":"曖昧すぎるデフレの定義、国民が望むは「インフレ脱却」＝唐鎌大輔氏"},"related_content":{"images":[{"url":"https://cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/6HPEXWDUTBI35NHI2ENCOHF6TM.jpg","caption":"　石破茂首相は自民党総裁選後の会見で「デフレからの完全脱却は首相就任後３年間で達成する」と述べたが、この発言に違和感を覚えた向きが多かったようだ。総選挙を控える状況で石破新政権への評価を下すのは尚早である。ただ、デフレ脱却を声高に叫ばれると、「それは違う」と感じるのが世論の大半だということも理解できる。唐鎌大輔氏のコラム。東京都内で２０２２年撮影（２０２４年　ロイター/Kim Kyung-Hoon）","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/6HPEXWDUTBI35NHI2ENCOHF6TM.jpg?auth=bddd7d3fd1ad0a8e0ec06cba85ce648b6e9f2bb805725bef64a50d075ccb166f","location":"Tokyo, Japan","id":"6HPEXWDUTBI35NHI2ENCOHF6TM","authors":"Kim Kyung Hoon","alt_text":"コラム：曖昧すぎるデフレの定義、国民が望むは「インフレ脱却」＝唐鎌大輔氏","width":7936,"height":5219,"subtitle":"コラム：曖昧すぎるデフレの定義、国民が望むは「インフレ脱却」＝唐鎌大輔氏","slug":"JA-JAPAN-ECONOMY-GDP","updated_at":"2024-10-15T03:44:33Z","company":"Reuters"}]},"taxonomy":{"shared_url":"/opinion/forex-forum/MHG5L7AUUFOFHA5HPLDKUODSFM-2024-10-15/","tags":[{"short_bio":"Sustainable Markets","description":"Sustainable Markets","slug":"rsbi-sustainable-markets","text":"RSBI:SUSTAINABLE-MARKETS","topic_url":"/tags/sustainable-markets/"},{"short_bio":"Regulatory Oversight","description":"Regulatory Oversight","slug":"rsbi-regulatory-oversight","text":"RSBI:REGULATORY-OVERSIGHT","topic_url":"/tags/regulatory-oversight/"},{"short_bio":"Climate Change","description":"Climate 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Hoon","alt_text":"コラム：曖昧すぎるデフレの定義、国民が望むは「インフレ脱却」＝唐鎌大輔氏","width":7936,"height":5219,"subtitle":"コラム：曖昧すぎるデフレの定義、国民が望むは「インフレ脱却」＝唐鎌大輔氏","slug":"JA-JAPAN-ECONOMY-GDP","updated_at":"2024-10-15T03:44:33Z","company":"Reuters"}]},"content_elements":[{"content":"石破茂首相は自民党総裁選後の会見で「デフレからの完全脱却は首相就任後３年間で達成する」と述べたが、この発言に違和感を覚えた向きが多かったようだ。総選挙を控える状況で石破新政権への評価を下すのは尚早である。ただ、デフレ脱却を声高に叫ばれると、「それは違う」と感じるのが世論の大半だということも理解できる。","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"＜国民が望むのは「インフレ脱却」＞","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"というのも、国民が望むのは「デフレ脱却」ではなく恐らく「インフレ脱却」の方が近いからだ。政界全体で物価高対策が争点化し、実質賃金のプラス転化とその定着が希求される状況を踏まえれば、今の日本経済の足かせとなっているのは「上がる物価（インフレ）」であって「上がらない物価（デフレ）」ではない。","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"例えば、実質賃金の低迷は続いている。８月毎月勤労統計では実質賃金が前年同月比マイナス０．６％と３カ月ぶりのマイナスに転落した。６月分が２０２２年３月以来、実に２年３カ月ぶりにプラスとなったことが話題になり、７月分も増勢が維持されたが、この２カ月間は特別給与すなわち賞与による一時的な押し上げが反映された結果でもあった。８月も持続性を判断する上で重要な項目である「決まって支給する給与」が同プラス３．０％と３２年４カ月ぶりの高い伸びを示したものの、持ち家の帰属家賃を除く消費者物価指数（ＣＰＩ）が７月の同プラス３．２％から８月は同プラス３．５％へ加速する中、実質賃金がマイナスに押しやられている。円安・資源高発・輸入物価経由の一般物価上昇が家計部門の所得環境を損なっている状況は否めない。","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"＜「デフレの定義」を整理する時＞","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"では、「上がる物価（インフレ）」が問題視される現状を踏まえ政府がデフレ脱却宣言に踏み切れば良いのだろうか。それも簡単ではない。脱却宣言を受けた世論は恐らく「生活は苦しいままだ」と政権への反意を強める可能性がある。だからこそ岸田政権もデフレ脱却宣言への期待が一時期浮上しながらも、遂にそこへ至ることは無かった。デフレは、そこからの脱却を目標化することも、そこからの脱却を宣言することも世論が違和感を覚えるという難しい状況にある。","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"なぜ、このような状況になっているのか。ひとえに「デフレの定義」が曖昧なまま放置されているからだろう。何となく景気が冴えない状況を総称してデフレという言葉に集約しているため、あらゆる経済主体にとって使い勝手の良い言葉になりがちなのである。しかし、「デフレの定義」は経済主体にとって異なるように感じる。","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"１９９０年代後半以降、デフレとは政府・日銀にとっては「ＣＰＩの低迷」であったが、企業にとっては長年続く「円高・株安」であり、海外投資家にとってもやはり「円高・株安」であったように筆者は考えている。異次元緩和が起動する２０１３年以前、日本経済にとって慢性的な円高・株安が宿痾（しゅくあ）のように考えられていた。実際、過去に行われた日銀の追加緩和はそのほとんどが円高・株安への対処だったはずだ。そして慢性的な円高ゆえに輸入物価も抑制され、一般物価も上がりにくい状況があった（もちろん物価が上がらなかったのは円高のせいだけではない）。少なくとも約１０年前まではデフレという言葉は多くの経済主体にとって最大公約数を捉える便利なフレーズであった。","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"特に「ＣＰＩの低迷」という表層的な状況の解決に傾倒したのが政府・日銀が総力を挙げた「アベノミクス」であり、象徴的には黒田東彦体制下での異次元緩和であった。その余波で継続される金融緩和路線とこれを一因とする円安、さらに資源高の影響も相まって「ＣＰＩの低迷」という表層的な状況は現状では解消されているし、円安を起爆剤として株高も実現している。現状、「ＣＰＩの低迷」や「円高・株安」という意味でのデフレに関し、脱却は完了済みと言っても差し支えないだろう。","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"＜国民にとってのデフレとは「実質賃金の低迷」＞","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"しかし、家計部門（国民）においては「こんなはずではなかった」という感情が強いだろう。それは家計部門にとってのデフレとは「実質賃金の低迷」だったからではないかと思う。日銀の「生活意識に関するアンケート調査（２４年９月分）」では「物価に関する受け止め」に関し８３．６％が「どちらかと言えば、困ったことだ」と回答している。そもそもデフレという現象に対し、政府・日銀と家計では問題意識の置きどころが同じではない。物価に関し、前者は上がって欲しいが後者は上がって欲しくないという認識相違がある。","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"日本の家計部門は長年、名目・実質双方のベースで上がらない賃金を強いられてきた。「慢性的な不況」と「実質賃金の低迷」がデフレという便利なフレーズに押し込められ「デフレを脱却しなければならない」という価値観が家計部門に強く根付いているように思う。その認識でも最近までは大きな問題にならなかったが、インフレが定着したことで家計部門とそれ以外の間で「デフレの定義」の差異が浮き彫りになってきているのが現状に見受けられる。","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"＜「デフレ」の使用に終止符を＞","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"今回、石破首相が口にしたデフレ脱却は、本来的に政府・日銀が念頭に置いていた「ＣＰＩの低迷」という意味ではなく、おそらく家計部門が抱いている「実質賃金の低迷」という意味で使ったのだろう。しかし、多くの国民にはその真意が伝わっていないかもしれない。額面通り受け止めれば、物価上昇を望む政治からの情報発信のように見えかねないため、石破首相がデフレ脱却を強調するほど家計部門は「何もわかっていない」という反感を覚えてしまう（国民はデフレという言葉をそこまで深く考えていないとも言える）。","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"今後、政府は「ＣＰＩの低迷」という意味でのデフレはもう終わったということを説明した上で、デフレという言葉から少しずつフェードアウトし、その使用に終止符を打つ必要があるのではないか。政治的な痛みを覚悟で一気呵成（かせい）にデフレ脱却宣言をしても良いかもしれない。案外、物価高で困っている今ならば納得感を得られる可能性もある。その上で本当の問題はインフレ脱却、これに伴う「実質賃金の低迷」の解消であることを強調すれば良いだろう。何らかの形でデフレというフレーズに対する意識変革を起こさなければ、多くの国民が小さくない違和感を抱きながら、政治のデフレ脱却論議に付き合わされる状況が続くことになる。「実質賃金の低迷」の遠因となっている円安およびこれとセットと考えられている円金利の長期低迷に終止符を打つことが、実体経済が復調するための迂遠な道に見えて王道に思える。","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"＜円安と金利上昇の二者択一＞","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"誰がリーダーになろうと円安か金利上昇のいずれかは受け入れる必要がある。為替を制御するのが難しい以上、緩やかな金利上昇を甘受した上で円安抑制を図るしかあるまい。もちろん、日銀の連続利上げが難しいことは理解できる。ただ、わざわざ政治的にその運営をけん制するような所作は不必要な円安を招くリスクがあるため、控えた方が良い。この点、石破首相は１２日の自民党党首討論会で「政府が何を言ったとしても、日銀は日銀として独自の判断がある」と述べており、恐らく正しい問題意識を備えているように思えた。円安は「実質賃金の低迷」を助長するのだから家計部門はそれを良く思わないし、最終的には時の政権への批判として返ってくる可能性が高い。現状、日銀は内外金融情勢を見極めながら正常化に動こうとしている。積極的に利上げを応援する必要はないが、政治からノイズを増やしてその見極めを難しくする必要もない。","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"編集：宗えりか","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"（本コラムは、ロイター外国為替フォーラムに掲載されたものです。筆者の個人的見解に基づいて書かれています）","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"＊唐鎌大輔氏は、みずほ銀行のチーフマーケット・エコノミスト。２００４年慶應義塾大学経済学部卒業後、日本貿易振興機構（ジェトロ）入構。０６年から日本経済研究センター、０７年からは欧州委員会経済金融総局（ベルギー）に出向。２００８年１０月より、みずほコーポレート銀行（現みずほ銀行）。欧州委員会出向時には、日本人唯一のエコノミストとしてＥＵ経済見通しの作成などに携わった。著書に「欧州リスク：日本化・円化・日銀化」（東洋経済新報社、２０１４年７月）、「ＥＣＢ欧州中央銀行：組織、戦略から銀行監督まで」（東洋経済新報社、２０１７年１１月）。新聞・ＴＶなどメディア出演多数。","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"＊このドキュメントにおけるニュース、取引価格、データ及びその他の情報などのコンテンツはあくまでも利用者の個人使用のみのためにコラムニストによって提供されているものであって、商用目的のために提供されているものではありません。このドキュメントの当コンテンツは、投資活動を勧誘又は誘引するものではなく、また当コンテンツを取引又は売買を行う際の意思決定の目的で使用することは適切ではありません。当コンテンツは投資助言となる投資、税金、法律等のいかなる助言も提供せず、また、特定の金融の個別銘柄、金融投資あるいは金融商品に関するいかなる勧告もしません。このドキュメントの使用は、資格のある投資専門家の投資助言に取って代わるものではありません。ロイターはコンテンツの信頼性を確保するよう合理的な努力をしていますが、コラムニストによって提供されたいかなる見解又は意見は当該コラムニスト自身の見解や分析であって、ロイターの見解、分析ではありません。","type":"paragraph"}],"authors":[{"name":"唐鎌大輔みずほ銀行チーフマーケット・エコノミスト","thumbnail":{"url":"https://cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/MBIVAJUOONDEBH26VPUYAC3JOE.jpg","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://www.reute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South Korea","authors":"KIM HONG-JI","company":"Reuters","caption":"韓国銀行（中央銀行）は２８日、据え置き予想に反して政策金利を２５ベーシスポイント（ｂｐ）引き下げ、３．００％とした。写真は２０１７年１１月、ソウルで撮影（２０２４年　ロイター/Kim Hong-Ji）","alt_text":"韓国中銀、2会合連続で0.25％利下げ　据え置き予想に反し","width":5472,"height":3648,"subtitle":"韓国中銀、2会合連続で0.25％利下げ　据え置き予想に反し","updated_at":"2024-11-28T01:23:38Z"},"primary_media_type":"image","source":{"name":"Package","original_name":"ロイター編集"},"distributor":"ロイター編集","authors":[{"topic_url":"/authors/cynthia-kim/","thumbnail":{"url":"https://cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/H24NV3AFCZCWPC463OG3JRYY7U.jpg","resizer_url":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fcloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com%2Freuters%2FH24NV3AFCZCWPC463OG3JRYY7U.jpg?auth=4dd3566d980534ddab2fb815cfdf9f08e04ca3d4f4dd0c88f6e42931b1e77167","renditions":{"square":{"60w":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fcloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com%2Freuters%2FH24NV3AFCZCWPC463OG3JRYY7U.jpg?auth=4dd3566d980534ddab2fb815cfdf9f08e04ca3d4f4dd0c88f6e42931b1e77167&width=60&height=60&smart=true","120w":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fcloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com%2Freuters%2FH24NV3AFCZCWPC463OG3JRYY7U.jpg?auth=4dd3566d980534ddab2fb815cfdf9f08e04ca3d4f4dd0c88f6e42931b1e77167&width=120&height=120&smart=true","240w":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fcloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com%2Freuters%2FH24NV3AFCZCWPC463OG3JRYY7U.jpg?auth=4dd3566d980534ddab2fb815cfdf9f08e04ca3d4f4dd0c88f6e42931b1e77167&width=240&height=240&smart=true","480w":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fcloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com%2Freuters%2FH24NV3AFCZCWPC463OG3JRYY7U.jpg?auth=4dd3566d980534ddab2fb815cfdf9f08e04ca3d4f4dd0c88f6e42931b1e77167&width=480&height=480&smart=true","960w":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fcloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com%2Freuters%2FH24NV3AFCZCWPC463OG3JRYY7U.jpg?auth=4dd3566d980534ddab2fb815cfdf9f08e04ca3d4f4dd0c88f6e42931b1e77167&width=960&height=960&smart=true","1080w":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fcloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com%2Freuters%2FH24NV3AFCZCWPC463OG3JRYY7U.jpg?auth=4dd3566d980534ddab2fb815cfdf9f08e04ca3d4f4dd0c88f6e42931b1e77167&width=1080&height=1080&smart=true","1200w":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fcloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com%2Freuters%2FH24NV3AFCZCWPC463OG3JRYY7U.jpg?auth=4dd3566d980534ddab2fb815cfdf9f08e04ca3d4f4dd0c88f6e42931b1e77167&width=1200&height=1200&smart=true","1920w":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fcloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com%2Freuters%2FH24NV3AFCZCWPC463OG3JRYY7U.jpg?auth=4dd3566d980534ddab2fb815cfdf9f08e04ca3d4f4dd0c88f6e42931b1e77167&width=1920&height=1920&smart=true"},"landscape":{"60w":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fcloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com%2Freuters%2FH24NV3AFCZCWPC463OG3JRYY7U.jpg?auth=4dd3566d980534ddab2fb815cfdf9f08e04ca3d4f4dd0c88f6e42931b1e77167&width=60&height=31&smart=true","120w":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fcloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com%2Freuters%2FH24NV3AFCZCWPC463OG3JRYY7U.jpg?auth=4dd3566d980534ddab2fb815cfdf9f08e04ca3d4f4dd0c88f6e42931b1e77167&width=120&height=63&smart=true","240w":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fcloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com%2Freuters%2FH24NV3AFCZCWPC463OG3JRYY7U.jpg?auth=4dd3566d980534ddab2fb815cfdf9f08e04ca3d4f4dd0c88f6e42931b1e77167&width=240&height=126&smart=true","480w":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fcloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com%2Freuters%2FH24NV3AFCZCWPC463OG3JRYY7U.jpg?auth=4dd3566d980534ddab2fb815cfdf9f08e04ca3d4f4dd0c88f6e42931b1e77167&width=480&height=251&smart=true","960w":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fcloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com%2Freuters%2FH24NV3AFCZCWPC463OG3JRYY7U.jpg?auth=4dd3566d980534ddab2fb815cfdf9f08e04ca3d4f4dd0c88f6e42931b1e77167&width=960&height=503&smart=true","1080w":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fcloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com%2Freuters%2FH24NV3AFCZCWPC463OG3JRYY7U.jpg?auth=4dd3566d980534ddab2fb815cfdf9f08e04ca3d4f4dd0c88f6e42931b1e77167&width=1080&height=565&smart=true","1200w":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fcloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com%2Freuters%2FH24NV3AFCZCWPC463OG3JRYY7U.jpg?auth=4dd3566d980534ddab2fb815cfdf9f08e04ca3d4f4dd0c88f6e42931b1e77167&width=1200&height=628&smart=true","1920w":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fcloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com%2Freuters%2FH24NV3AFCZCWPC463OG3JRYY7U.jpg?auth=4dd3566d980534ddab2fb815cfdf9f08e04ca3d4f4dd0c88f6e42931b1e77167&width=1920&height=1005&smart=true"},"portrait":{"60w":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fcloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com%2Freuters%2FH24NV3AFCZCWPC463OG3JRYY7U.jpg?auth=4dd3566d980534ddab2fb815cfdf9f08e04ca3d4f4dd0c88f6e42931b1e77167&width=60&height=75&smart=true","120w":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fcl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DC, UNITED STATES","company":"Reuters","caption":"　１１月に行われた米大統領選で共和党のトランプ候補が勝利し、上下両院も共和党が過半数を制する「トリプルレッド」になったことを受けて、金融市場で米国株買い、米国債売り、ドル買いなどが進行した。いわゆる「トランプ・トレード」である。上野泰也氏のコラム。写真は米首都ワシントンで１３日撮影（２０２４年　ロイター/Brian 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