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버핏, 다이먼, 베이저스 주식 파는 이유는 [김현석의 월스트리트나우]

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style="display:block; color:#2d50af; font-size:16px; text-align:center; "><span style="border-bottom:1px solid #d4dcf1;">이 기사는 국내 최대 해외 투자정보 플랫폼 <span style="font-weight:700; color:#ee4c4c">한경 글로벌마켓</span>에 게재된 기사입니다.</span></div><br><br><span class="end_photo_org"><div class="nbd_im_w _LAZY_LOADING_WRAP "> <div class="nbd_a _LAZY_LOADING_ERROR_HIDE" id="img_a1"> <img id="img1" data-src="https://imgnews.pstatic.net/image/015/2024/02/27/0004953149_001_20240227212601045.jpg?type&#x3D;w860" class="_LAZY_LOADING _LAZY_LOADING_INIT_HIDE" alt="" style="display: none;" /> </div> </div></span><br><br>&lt;2월 26일 월요일&gt;<br><br>지난 석 달간의 뉴욕 증시의 랠리는 세 가지가 주요 동인이었습니다. ▲엔비디아로 상징되는 인공지능(AI) 열풍 ▲예상보다 강한 기업 이익 성장, 그리고 ▲미 중앙은행(Fed)의 조기 금리 인하에 대한 기대였습니다.<br><br>엔비디아는 엄청난 4분기 실적을 냈지만, 지난주 폭등한 뒤 주가가 주당 800달러, 시가총액 2조 달러 안팎에서 (잠시) 폭등세를 멈췄습니다. 일부에선 상승세가 3월 18~21일 열리는 GPU 테크 콘퍼런스(GTC)를 전후해 다시 나타날 수 있다고 봅니다. 새로운 신제품을 공개하는 GTC 전후로 과거 주가가 강세를 보였다는 근거에서요. 그렇다고 해도 3주 이상을 기다려야 합니다.<br><br>4분기 어닝시즌은 이제 거의 끝났죠. 예상보다 강했지만, 실적이 다시 주가 모멘텀이 되려면 1분기 어닝시즌이 되어야 합니다. 1분기 어닝시즌은 JP모건이 실적을 공개하는 오는 4월12일부터 본격화되죠. 한 달 이상이 남아있다는 뜻입니다. <br><br>Fed의 금리 인하에 대한 기대는 1월 소비자물가(CPI), 생산자물가(PPI)가 나온 뒤 상당 폭 후퇴했습니다. 시카고 상품거래소의 Fed워치 시장을 보면 이제 시장은 5월 인하 확률에 13%만 베팅하고 있습니다. 6월 인하에는 61%를 베팅하고 있지만, 이는 한 달 전 거의 100%에서 꽤 낮아진 것입니다. 7월이 되어야 인하 확률이 82%가 됩니다. 7월에 인하를 시작한다면 잘해야 서너 번 내리게 되겠죠. <br><br><span class="end_photo_org"><div class="nbd_im_w _LAZY_LOADING_WRAP "> <div class="nbd_a _LAZY_LOADING_ERROR_HIDE" id="img_a2"> <img id="img2" data-src="https://imgnews.pstatic.net/image/015/2024/02/27/0004953149_002_20240227212601075.jpg?type&#x3D;w860" class="_LAZY_LOADING _LAZY_LOADING_INIT_HIDE" alt="" style="display: none;" /> </div> </div></span><br><br>이는 앞으로 나오는 인플레이션 데이터에 따라 달라질 수 있습니다만 29일 발표될 1월 개인소비지출(PCE) 물가에 대한 기대는 크지 않습니다. 이미 발표된 1월 CPI, PPI를 기초로 추산하면 근원 PCE 물가는 전월 대비 0.4% 상승할 것으로 예측되니까요. 이는 Fed의 목표 2%와 부합하는 전월 대비 상승률 0.2%의 두 배 수준입니다. 모건스탠리의 엘런 젠트너 이코노미스트는 "우리는 모든 물가 관련 데이터가 1분기 인플레이션 재가속화를 가리키고 있다고 본다. 그래서 Fed는 6월까지 금리 인하를 늦출 것으로 예측한다. 우리는 이런 인플레이션 재가속이 일시적일 것으로 보지만 이는 열린 질문(open question)"이라고 말했습니다.<br><br>스페인 산탄데르의 스티븐 스탠리 이코노미스트는 "Fed가 금리 인하를 11월까지 기다릴 수 있다"라고 썼습니다. 인플레이션보다는 대선 탓입니다. 그는 "Fed는 독립적 중앙은행이지만 통화 정책은 선출직 공무원(대통령 포함)에게 중요하다. 이로 인해 Fed는 선거 일정에 어느 정도 영향을 받게 된다. 11월 FOMC는 대선 일정 때문에 5~6일(화~수)이 아니라 6~7일(수~목)에 열린다. 그때면 금리 인하를 자유롭게 시작할 수 있다"라고 썼습니다. 그는 또 "경제와 인플레이션이 예상보다 더 뜨거울 것으로 예상한다. 이는 금리 인하 지연을 뒷받침할 것"이라고도 주장했습니다.<br> <br>괜찮은 미국 경제, 개선되는 기업 실적과 AI 열풍에 기반해 뉴욕 증시가 계속 오를 것으로 보는 관측이 다수지만 단기적으로는 모멘텀들이 주가에 이미 반영됐거나 약해지다 보니, 상승세는 약화할 수 있다는 말입니다.<br>&#8204;<br>씨티의 스콧 크로너트 전략가는 &#39;시장이 정점에 달했는지&#39;에 대해 "지금은 투자자 심리가 행복감(euphoria)에 이르지 않았기 때문에 당황할 때는 아니다”라고 주장했습니다. 씨티가 투자자의 포지션, 레버리지 등을 고려하는 만드는 레프코비츠 지수를 보면 0.33으로, 유포리아 단계인 0.38보다 낮습니다. 크로너트 전략가는 시장의 모멘텀이 단기적으로 S&P500 지수를 씨티의 연말 목표인 5100 이상으로 끌어올릴 수 있지만, 장기적으로 더 높은 상승세를 유지하려면 더 많은 순풍이 나타나야 한다고 설명했습니다. 크로너트 전략가는 "지속 가능한 지수 상승을 위해서는 장기적이고 더 많은 기업 이익 상승 여력, 낮은 금리와 같은 거시적 순풍이 필요할 수 있다"라고 썼습니다.<br><br>오늘 시장에서는 유난히 누가 주식을 팔았다는 얘기들이 많았습니다. 메타의 마크 저커버그는 꾸준히 메타 주식을 매도하고 있고, 아마존의 제프 베이저스도 마찬가지입니다. 버크셔 해서웨이는 지난해 4분기에 애플 보유 주식 중 1.1%를 매각한 것으로 나타나기도 했습니다. 워런 버핏은 지난 주말 사이에 공개한 연례 서한에서 "눈이 번쩍 뜨이는 성과의 시대는 끝났다"라고 썼습니다. "버크셔의 방향을 실제로 바꿀 수 있는 기업은 미국에 소수에 불과하며, 그런 기업들은 버크셔와 다른 투자자들에 의해 이미 선택됐다. 가치가 있으려면 주가가 매력적이어야 한다"라는 것이죠. 애플을 말한 것일 수도 있습니다.<br><br>여기에 지난 주말 사이 JP모건체이스의 제이미 다이먼 회장이 JP모건 주식 82만2000주를 매각한 것으로 신고했습니다. 약 1억5000만 달러 규모입니다. 지난해 10월 보유 주식 총 860만 주 중 100만 주를 매각할 계획이라고 신고했었는데, 지난주에 판 것이죠. 지난주 JP모건 주가는 신고가 기록을 세웠었습니다. 주식 매각은 다이먼이 2005년 회장에 취임한 이후 최초입니다. JP모건 측은 "다이먼은 회사 전망이 매우 유망하다고 여기고 있으며 앞으로 보유 지분이 상당히 높은 수준에서 지속하리라 생각한다"라고 밝혔습니다.<br><br><span class="end_photo_org"><div class="nbd_im_w _LAZY_LOADING_WRAP "> <div class="nbd_a _LAZY_LOADING_ERROR_HIDE" id="img_a3"> <img id="img3" data-src="https://imgnews.pstatic.net/image/015/2024/02/27/0004953149_003_20240227212601105.jpg?type&#x3D;w860" class="_LAZY_LOADING _LAZY_LOADING_INIT_HIDE" alt="" style="display: none;" /> </div> </div></span><br><br>눈여겨볼 건 다이먼의 투자 시점입니다. 다이먼은 스톡옵션 외에 세 차례 시장에서 직접 주식을 사들인 적이 있습니다. ▲2009년 1월(50만 주, 주당 22.93달러) ▲2012년 7월(23만5000주, 주당 34.44달러) ▲2016년 2월(50만 주, 53.18달러)입니다. 각각 주가가 크게 떨어진 때였습니다. 그리고 이번에 82만 주를 주당 182달러 수준에 매각한 것이죠. 투자 수익률이 평균 389%에 달합니다.<br><br>월마트의 소유주 일가인 월튼 패밀리도 지난주 882만 주, 15억 달러 규모의 주식을 매각했습니다. 월마트 주가는 4분기 실적 발표 직후인 지난 20일 사상 최고 기록을 갈아치웠었습니다. 월마트는 3대 1 주식 분할도 발표했었지요. 물론 월튼 패밀리는 월마트 주식 45%, 2740억 달러어치를 갖고 있습니다.<br><br>캐시 우드의 아크 인베스트먼트가 운용하는 펀드도 지난주 금요일 엔비디아와 TSMC 주식을 팔았습니다. TSMC 8599주를 팔았는데, 2021년 말 이후 처음입니다. 엔비디아 2362주도 매각했고요. <br><br>골드만삭스 프라임 브로커리지는 헤지펀드 고객들이 지난주 4일 연속으로 기술주를 매도했다고 밝혔습니다. 매도 강도도 강해서 지난 5년간 판매 강도를 100분위로 보면 98분위에 해당하는 빠른 속도로 팔아치웠습니다. 그 이전 6주 연속으로 기술주를 사들였었는데, 지난주 엔비디아 실적 발표를 전후해서 매도에 나선 것이죠. 목요일 엔비디아 실적이 예상을 훨씬 웃돌면서 주가가 폭등했지만, 헤지펀드들의 매도는 금요일에도 이어졌습니다. <br><br><span class="end_photo_org"><div class="nbd_im_w _LAZY_LOADING_WRAP is_long"> <div class="nbd_a _LAZY_LOADING_ERROR_HIDE" id="img_a4"> <img id="img4" data-src="https://imgnews.pstatic.net/image/015/2024/02/27/0004953149_004_20240227212601142.jpg?type&#x3D;w860" class="_LAZY_LOADING _LAZY_LOADING_INIT_HIDE" alt="" style="display: none;" /> </div> </div></span><br><br>골드만삭스의 기술주 전문가인 피터 캘러헌은 "이(헤지펀드 매도)는 모멘텀의 지속가능성에 대해 약간의 긴장감을 불러일으켰다. 이제 대부분의 거대 기술주가 어닝을 보고한 만큼 앞으로 며칠 동안의 초점은 경제 데이터와 금리 인하 시기로 옮겨갈 것"이라고 지적했습니다. 월가 관계자는 "많은 내부자나 헤지펀드가 매도에 나섰다는 건 단기적으로 고점을 나타낼 수 있다. 많은 주식이 급등하면서 사상 최고가를 기록한 시점에서 매도가 나타났다는 데 주목한다"라고 설명했습니다. <br><br>이들은 왜 주식을 팔았을까요? JP모건의 다이먼 CEO는 오늘 마이애미에서 열린 한 콘퍼런스에서 주식 매각 기념으로(?) CNBC와 인터뷰를 가졌습니다. 사실 주식을 판 이유를 설명한 것은 아니고 시장, 경제 상황에 대해 여러 가지를 말했습니다. 우울하지는 않았지만 역시 부정적 어조가 많은 편이었습니다. 하지만 굉장히 밝은 목소리로 얘기한 것이 있었는데요. 바로 AI 관련이었습니다. 그는 "AI는 과장 광고가 아니라 진짜다"라고 여러 차례 말했습니다.<br><br><span class="end_photo_org"><div class="nbd_im_w _LAZY_LOADING_WRAP "> <div class="nbd_a _LAZY_LOADING_ERROR_HIDE" id="img_a5"> <img id="img5" data-src="https://imgnews.pstatic.net/image/015/2024/02/27/0004953149_005_20240227212601178.jpg?type&#x3D;w860" class="_LAZY_LOADING _LAZY_LOADING_INIT_HIDE" alt="" style="display: none;" /> </div> </div></span><br><br>▶시장의 자신감은 매우 높다<br>=콘퍼런스 분위기는 매우 좋고 인수합병(M&A) 관련 대화가 더 많아지고 있다. 쉽게 말해 주식 가격은 약간 뜨겁다. 또 회사채 스프레드는 역사적 최저치에 가까워지고 있다. 이는 고수익을 좇는 자금이 많다는 것을 의미한다. 이게 지금 분위기이고 사람들이 좋게 느낀다. 지금까지는 아주 좋다.<br><br>▶그러나 걱정스러운 것들이 있다<br>=1972년에서 시장이 급락하기 전에도 투자자들 분위기가 좋았다. 그러나 상황이 변한다. 그래서 앞을 내다보아야 한다. 걱정스러운 것들이 있다. 우선 많은 재정 지출이 있다. 재정 지출에는 승수가 있다. 그래서 금세 그 효과가 사라지지 않을 수 있고 사람들이 놀랄 수도 있다고 생각한다. 시장은 지금 연착륙에 가격을 책정하고 있고 그렇게 될 수 있다. 시장은 연착륙 확률을 70, 80%로 본다. 나는 그것의 절반 정도만 본다. 금리가 인하될 수도 있지만, 더 높아질 가능성도 있다. 재정 적자뿐 아니라 양적 긴축(QT)이 이어지고 있고, 지정학적 위기도 있다. 이러한 일들은 수년에 걸쳐 계속 영향을 미칠 것이며 그것이 어떨지 잘 모른다. 그래서 좀 조심스럽다. <br><br>▶금리가 올라간다면 경기 침체가 발생할 수 있고 상업용 부동산 문제가 현실화할 것이다.<br>=다수의 부동산 소유자는 스트레스를 처리할 수 있다. 창고, 데이터 센터, 병원 등에 대한 대출은 괜찮으므로 사무용 건물에 집중할 필요가 있다. 이자율이 최소 300bp는 올라갔기 때문에 그들의 현금흐름은 최소 30%는 줄었을 것이다. 그 정도는 위기는 아니다. 그러나 경기 침체가 발생하면 상황은 매우 악화할 것이다. 불황이 없다면 대부분은 문제를 그럭저럭 헤쳐나가고 재융자를 받을 수 있을 것이다. 파산이 늘어나도 그건 정상화 과정일 뿐이다. 그러나 금리가 올라가 경기 침체가 발생하면 부동산 문제가 불거질 것이다. 일부 은행은 다른 은행보다 훨씬 더 큰 부동산 문제를 안고 있다. <br><br>▶AI는 과장 광고가 아니다. 나는 커다란 AI 낙관론자다.<br>=AI는 진짜다. 인터넷 버블이 있었을 때는 과대광고였지만 AI는 과대광고가 아니라 실제다. 우리는 더 나아지고, 더 빠르고, 더 똑똑해질 것이다. AI는 당신의 남은 일생 동안 지속할 주제다. 우리 연구 부서에서는 대규모 언어 모델을 연구하고 데이터를 합성하고 있다. 헬스케어만 봐도 AI는 생명을 구하고 암 치료법을 발명할 수도 있다. 저는 AI에 대해 매우 낙관적이다. <br><br>별다른 시장 촉매제가 남아 있지 않고 전반적으로 어수선하다 보니 강보합세로 출발한 뉴욕 증시의 주요 지수는 하락세를 보였습니다. 결국, 다우는 0.16%, S&P500 지수는 0.38% 내렸고요. 나스닥은 0.13% 하락세로 거래를 마쳤습니다. 찰스 슈왑의 네이선 페터슨 파생상품 이사는 "시장이 엔비디아의 실적 발표가 지나간 상황에서 기술주 강세 모멘텀의 지속 가능성을 평가하고 있는 것으로 보인다. 이렇게 강력한 주가 움직임을 보인 후에 조정을 기간을 갖는 것은 정상이며 일반적으로 이는 옆으로 또는 아래로 움직인다. 나쁜 계절성, 그리고 모멘텀이 약해지고 있다는 기술적 징후를 고려해 이번 주에는 투자자들이 조심스러운 쪽으로 기울고 있다"라고 설명했습니다.<br><br><span class="end_photo_org"><div class="nbd_im_w _LAZY_LOADING_WRAP "> <div class="nbd_a _LAZY_LOADING_ERROR_HIDE" id="img_a6"> <img id="img6" data-src="https://imgnews.pstatic.net/image/015/2024/02/27/0004953149_006_20240227212601219.jpg?type&#x3D;w860" class="_LAZY_LOADING _LAZY_LOADING_INIT_HIDE" alt="" style="display: none;" /> </div> </div></span><br><br>엔비디아는 상승세(0.35%)를 이어갔지만, 단기 모멘텀은 확실히 식었습니다. 알파벳은 무려 4.5%나 급락했습니다. AI 모델 제미나이가 역사 왜곡, 인종차별 등 논란에 휘말린 탓입니다. 일론 머스크가 비판에 앞장서고 있고요. 머스크는 구글 내부의 관료주의 탓에 제미나이 수정도 쉽지 않을 것이란 악담을 했습니다.<br><br>지난주 엔비디아의 엄청난 실적으로 인해 S&P500 지수와 다우 지수가 모두 사상 최고치 기록을 세웠죠. 뉴욕 증시는 계속 상승하고 있지만, 채권 시장은 그렇지 못합니다.1월 인플레이션 데이터가 높게 나오고, 경제 데이터는 괜찮아서 Fed가 금리 인하에 신중한 자세를 보이고 있기 때문입니다. <br><br>오늘도 경제 데이터는 괜찮았습니다. <br><br>1월 신규주택 판매는 전월 대비 1.5% 증가했습니다. 증가세는 보였지만 12월(7.2% 증가)보두 둔화했고 컨센서스(3.0%)에도 미치지 못했습니다. 1월에 모기지 금리가 상승세를 보인 탓으로 분석됩니다. <br><br><span class="end_photo_org"><div class="nbd_im_w _LAZY_LOADING_WRAP "> <div class="nbd_a _LAZY_LOADING_ERROR_HIDE" id="img_a7"> <img id="img7" data-src="https://imgnews.pstatic.net/image/015/2024/02/27/0004953149_007_20240227212601246.jpg?type&#x3D;w860" class="_LAZY_LOADING _LAZY_LOADING_INIT_HIDE" alt="" style="display: none;" /> </div> </div></span><br><br>댈러스 연방은행의 제조업 지수는 1월 -27.4에서 2월 -11.3으로 회복됐습니다. 여전히 마이너스로 업황이 위축 국면이기는 하지만 전월보다 개선됐을 뿐 아니라 월가 예상(-15.0)도 넘었습니다.<br><br>골드만삭스는 이들 수치를 바탕으로 1분기 GDP 성장률이 여전히 2.4%에 달할 것으로 예상했습니다.<br><br>이에 뉴욕 채권 시장에서 금리 상승세가 이어졌습니다. 미 국채 2년물 수익률은 3.9bp 오른 4.729%, 10년물은 2bp 상승한 4.28%를 기록했습니다. 2년물 금리는 2월 초 4.19% 수준에서 50bp 이상 오른 것입니다.<br><br>미 재무부가 실시한 두 차례의 국채 경매도 시장 금리 상승에 일조했습니다. 2년물(630억 달러) 경매에서는 발행 금리가 4.691%로 발생 당시의 시장 금리(WI) 4.689%보다 0.2bp 높게 형성됐습니다. 5년물(640억 달러) 경매에서는 4.320%에 결정되어 WI 4.312%보다 0.8bp 높았고요. 경매 결과가 좋은 건 아니었지만 매각 물량이 사상 최대였던 점을 고려하면 그래도 선방한 것이란 분석도 있습니다. 게다가 2월에는 회사채도 모두 1720억 달러 규모가 발행되고요.<br><br><span class="end_photo_org"><div class="nbd_im_w _LAZY_LOADING_WRAP "> <div class="nbd_a _LAZY_LOADING_ERROR_HIDE" id="img_a8"> <img id="img8" data-src="https://imgnews.pstatic.net/image/015/2024/02/27/0004953149_008_20240227212601280.jpg?type&#x3D;w860" class="_LAZY_LOADING _LAZY_LOADING_INIT_HIDE" alt="" style="display: none;" /> </div> </div></span><br> <br>Fed는 앞으로 어떻게 나올까요? 에버코어 ISI는 Fed가 3단계로 움직일 것으로 관측합니다.<br><br>먼저 1단계로 지금부터 6월까지는 경제가 둔화하면서 인플레이션이 2% 목표로 내려오는지, 즉 경제의 연착륙을 신중히 확인하는 단계입니다. Fed는 1월 데이터가 큰 소음이었고 2%를 향해 움직이는 인플레이션, 경제 둔화 추세 등 연착륙의 증거를 축적할 것으로 봤습니다.<br><br>2단계는 올해 하반기, 6월부터 12월까지로 신중한 자세에서 보다 중립적으로 이동하는 단계입니다. 연착륙에 자신감을 얻은 Fed는 연착륙 경로를 지키기 위해 제약적 금리를 보다 중립적으로 전환할 것입니다. 하지만 연말 금리는 대차대조표 감축과 연방정부의 완화적 재정으로 인해 장기 중립 금리보다 높을 것으로 봤습니다. 즉 전반적으로 금리를 천천히 내리면서 그렇게 많이 내리지는 않을 것이란 뜻이죠.<br><br>3단계는 내년, 그리고 내후년인데요. 금리를 장기 중립 수준까지 낮추는 단계입니다. 문제는 이 단계는 오는 11월 대선 결과와 새 행정부의 재정 정책에 따라 크게 달라질 것이란 겁니다.<br><br>에버코어 ISI는 도널드 트럼프 전 대통령이 당선될 경우 더 큰 재정 적자와 더 많은 리플레이션 정책의 혼합이 나타날 것으로 봤습니다. 이는 (공화당이 지배하는 하원의 제약을 받는) 조 바이든 행정부보다 다소 높은 중립 금리를 의미할 가능성이 크다고 지적했습니다. 트럼프 재집권을 가정했을 때 2026년은 중립 금리는 바이든 재집권 시나리오에 비해 25~50bp 더 높은 수준을 보일 것으로 관측했습니다.<br><br>최근 월가에 이런 관측들이 많습니다. 시장 금리가 4%대를 꾸준히 유지하고 있는 이유 중 하나로 지목됩니다.<br><br>뉴욕=김현석 특파원 realist@hankyung.com </article> </div> <div class="byline"> <p class="byline_p"> <span class="byline_s">뉴욕&#x3D;김현석 특파원 realist@hankyung.com</span> </p> </div> <div class="newsct_journalist"> <div class="newsct_journalist_inner"> <h4 class="blind">기자 프로필</h4> <div 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