Mysteel：吉林市场建筑钢材2021年回顾和2022年展望-我的钢铁网

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style='color:#3861ab'>螺纹钢</a>最高价达到了6280元/吨，较去年最高点高出1970元/吨，可见今年行情涨幅及振幅之大，而在此行情下，钢厂持续保持高额利润，贸易商则是几家欢喜几家愁的分化场景，总体而言，钢厂成为大赢家，贸易商则面临新环境下的艰巨考验。那么，2022年长春建材市场将何去何从，笔者将从以下方面分析，供大家参考。</strong></p> <p><strong>一、2021年行情回顾</strong></p> <p><strong>1、价格重心上移振幅区间扩大</strong></p> <p>2021年长春螺纹钢价格从年初开始稳步上涨，价格重心全年两度上移，全年均价较去年上移1345元/吨。具体来看，2020年价格最高点为4310元/吨，价格最低点3390元/吨，振幅920元/吨，2021年价格最高点为6280元/吨，价格最低点为4660元/吨，振幅1620元/吨，振幅同比上升700元/吨。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/12/31/162544.png" style="width: 600px; height: 342px;" /></p> <p><strong>2、库存前高后低下半年累库周期提前</strong></p> <p>从长春市场库存来看，2021年螺纹钢库存变动在6月之前与2020年节奏几乎一致，均从1月初的4万余吨单边增加至3月中旬的30万余吨，随着开春之后下游需求的稳步释放冬储库存一路再降至5月底的约13万吨；而6月起至7月上旬，库存快速上升至21万吨，较去年同期的9.6万吨大幅增加了11.4万吨，这与5月份价格暴涨之后暴跌下游采购情绪骤降贸易商出货受阻关联密切；而四季度降库速速则均较快，与去年相差不大。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/12/31/161951.png" style="width: 600px; height: 221px;" /></p> <p><strong>3、省内钢厂产量螺减线增内需以外输为主</strong></p> <p>今年省内钢厂螺纹产量168万吨，较去年减少42.8万吨，盘线产量290万吨，较去年增加58.8万吨，合计较去年增加16万吨。而流入本地的资源螺纹今年260.6万吨，较去年增加20.62万吨，盘线131万吨，较去年增27.2万吨，合计较去年增47.8万吨，即螺纹自产不足而盘线富余，盘线厂家资源竞争相对激烈。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/12/31/162007.png" style="width: 600px; height: 217px;" /></p> <p><strong>4、成交量季节特征不变活跃度及峰值高于去年</strong></p> <p>样本商户成交量季节性特征仍明显，1-2月受极冷气候影响室外无法施工工地全线停工市场处于冬眠状态故无成交，3月起春回大地当地气温回升商户开始逐步归市成交直线上升，而后10月份起气温下降成交随之下降。而今年的最高点出现在4月29日为11978万吨较去年同期高出3277万吨，市场对政策面资源供应减少的强烈预期是导致成交出现异动的主要原因。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/12/31/162024.png" style="width: 600px; height: 339px;" /></p> <p><strong>5、房地产住宅投资完成额续增增速逐月放缓</strong></p> <p>从国家统计局公布的数据来看，2021年2-11月吉林省房地产住宅投资完成额为5315.8亿元，较去年同阶段的4959亿元继续增加，增量为356.7亿元，但从每月数据来看，增速则呈逐月下降态势，从2月份起环比去年同期增速从79.2%逐月降至11月份的3.97%，表明今年地产对钢材需求全年水平尚可，但由于增速放缓市场对未来用钢需求却令人堪忧。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/12/31/162104.png" style="width: 600px; height: 338px;" /></p> <p><strong>二、2022年市场展望</strong></p> <p><strong>就短期来看，由于东北地区房地产及基建施工项目大部分已由于气候原因进入停滞状态，市场交投量甚少，市场库存基本以冬储资源为主，目前已有个别钢厂冬储资源开始陆续到货，但集中到货期还未到，而按历年惯例，市场行情真正启动一般都在三月以后，但今年春节提前到二月初，因此，预计在过年前后市场本身并无支撑价格波动的基础，主要以跟随钢厂调价为主。而开春之后的行情将如何演绎？笔者认为政策、供需及原料价格的变化将是最主要的影响因素。</strong></p> <p><strong>政策与供需方面，从国家今年所召开的系列经济会议可以看出，“碳达峰、碳中和”仍将是2025年之前的主基调，供给端势必是只减不增的趋势，而需求端则是强调将重点发展基建项目，房地产发展将是弱化的趋势，故在供需均减的情况，市场机会与风险将并存，对于商户而言，其经营则将面临比往年更大的考验。</strong></p> <p><strong>价格方面，就商户心态来看，由于当地今年下游资金持续偏紧，回款速度慢，冬储积极性较去年下降，部分商户甚至已放弃冬储，这也说明大家对来年价格预期也是偏弱的。但从周期上看，三月份当地需求将逐步启动，或将带动价格稳中上移，但全年来看，或将呈前高后低的宽幅震荡走势。</strong></p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：谢丹 021-26093874 </br> 资讯监督：甘遐勇 021-26093612 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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