Spatial trends in United States tornado frequency | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

<!DOCTYPE html> <html lang="en" class="grade-c"> <head> <title>Spatial trends in United States tornado frequency | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science</title> <link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" href="https://www.nature.com/npjclimatsci.rss"/> <link rel="preconnect" href="https://cmp.nature.com" crossorigin> <meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge"> <meta name="applicable-device" content="pc,mobile"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=5,user-scalable=yes"> <meta name="360-site-verification" content="5a2dc4ab3fcb9b0393241ffbbb490480" /> <script data-test="dataLayer"> window.dataLayer = [{"content":{"category":{"contentType":"article","legacy":{"webtrendsPrimaryArticleType":"research","webtrendsSubjectTerms":"climate-change;climate-sciences","webtrendsContentCategory":null,"webtrendsContentCollection":"Climate and Weather Extremes","webtrendsContentGroup":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","webtrendsContentGroupType":null,"webtrendsContentSubGroup":"Article","status":null}},"article":{"doi":"10.1038/s41612-018-0048-2"},"attributes":{"cms":null,"deliveryPlatform":"oscar","copyright":{"open":true,"legacy":{"webtrendsLicenceType":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"}}},"contentInfo":{"authors":["Vittorio A. 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This overall economic and casualty risk—with over 600 severe thunderstorm related deaths in 2011—has prompted public and scientific inquiries about the impact of climate change on tornadoes. We show that national annual frequencies of tornado reports have remained relatively constant, but significant spatially-varying temporal trends in tornado frequency have occurred since 1979. Negative tendencies of tornado occurrence have been noted in portions of the central and southern Great Plains, while robust positive trends have been documented in portions of the Midwest and Southeast United States. In addition, the significant tornado parameter is used as an environmental covariate to increase confidence in the tornado report results. While the number of tornadoes has remained fairly static in the United States over the past 40 years, strong geographic contrasts are apparent. Tornadoes have the potential to cause severe damage, yet understanding their changes in time—particularly the impact of anthropogenic warming—has been hampered by sparse observations. Vittorio Gensini and Harold Brooks, from Northern Illinois University and the National Severe Storms Laboratory, respectively, therefore use a proxy of tornado activity—the significant tornado parameter, STP—to investigate regional trends since 1979. Tornado counts have increased in the Southeast, Midwest, and Northeast, as represented by a robust upward trend in the STP. In the southern Great Plains, by contrast, negative trends are apparent. 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Tornadoes have..."/> <meta name="twitter:image" content="https://media.springernature.com/full/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41612-018-0048-2/MediaObjects/41612_2018_48_Fig1_HTML.png"/> <meta property="og:url" content="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0048-2"/> <meta property="og:type" content="article"/> <meta property="og:site_name" content="Nature"/> <meta property="og:title" content="Spatial trends in United States tornado frequency - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science"/> <meta property="og:description" content="While the number of tornadoes has remained fairly static in the United States over the past 40 years, strong geographic contrasts are apparent. Tornadoes have the potential to cause severe damage, yet understanding their changes in time—particularly the impact of anthropogenic warming—has been hampered by sparse observations. Vittorio Gensini and Harold Brooks, from Northern Illinois University and the National Severe Storms Laboratory, respectively, therefore use a proxy of tornado activity—the significant tornado parameter, STP—to investigate regional trends since 1979. Tornado counts have increased in the Southeast, Midwest, and Northeast, as represented by a robust upward trend in the STP. In the southern Great Plains, by contrast, negative trends are apparent. 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data-test="article-category">Article</li> <li class="c-article-identifiers__item"> <a href="https://www.springernature.com/gp/open-research/about/the-fundamentals-of-open-access-and-open-research" data-track="click" data-track-action="open access" data-track-label="link" class="u-color-open-access" data-test="open-access">Open access</a> </li> <li class="c-article-identifiers__item">Published: <time datetime="2018-10-17">17 October 2018</time></li> </ul> <h1 class="c-article-title" data-test="article-title" data-article-title="">Spatial trends in United States tornado frequency</h1> <ul class="c-article-author-list c-article-author-list--short" data-test="authors-list" data-component-authors-activator="authors-list"><li class="c-article-author-list__item"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" href="#auth-Vittorio_A_-Gensini-Aff1" data-author-popup="auth-Vittorio_A_-Gensini-Aff1" data-author-search="Gensini, Vittorio A." data-corresp-id="c1">Vittorio A. Gensini<svg width="16" height="16" focusable="false" role="img" aria-hidden="true" class="u-icon"><use xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="#icon-eds-i-mail-medium"></use></svg></a><span class="u-js-hide"> <a class="js-orcid" href="http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6362-9197"><span class="u-visually-hidden">ORCID: </span>orcid.org/0000-0001-6362-9197</a></span><sup class="u-js-hide"><a href="#Aff1">1</a></sup> & </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" href="#auth-Harold_E_-Brooks-Aff2" data-author-popup="auth-Harold_E_-Brooks-Aff2" data-author-search="Brooks, Harold E.">Harold E. Brooks</a><sup class="u-js-hide"><a href="#Aff2">2</a></sup> </li></ul> <p class="c-article-info-details" data-container-section="info"> <a data-test="journal-link" href="/npjclimatsci" data-track="click" data-track-action="journal homepage" data-track-category="article body" data-track-label="link"><i data-test="journal-title">npj Climate and Atmospheric Science</i></a> <b data-test="journal-volume"><span class="u-visually-hidden">volume</span> 1</b>, Article number: <span data-test="article-number">38</span> (<span data-test="article-publication-year">2018</span>) <a href="#citeas" class="c-article-info-details__cite-as u-hide-print" data-track="click" data-track-action="cite this article" data-track-label="link">Cite this article</a> </p> <div class="c-article-metrics-bar__wrapper u-clear-both"> <ul class="c-article-metrics-bar u-list-reset"> <li class=" c-article-metrics-bar__item" data-test="access-count"> <p class="c-article-metrics-bar__count">64k <span class="c-article-metrics-bar__label">Accesses</span></p> </li> <li class="c-article-metrics-bar__item" data-test="citation-count"> <p class="c-article-metrics-bar__count">114 <span class="c-article-metrics-bar__label">Citations</span></p> </li> <li class="c-article-metrics-bar__item" data-test="altmetric-score"> <p class="c-article-metrics-bar__count">1948 <span class="c-article-metrics-bar__label">Altmetric</span></p> </li> <li class="c-article-metrics-bar__item"> <p class="c-article-metrics-bar__details"><a href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2/metrics" data-track="click" data-track-action="view metrics" data-track-label="link" rel="nofollow">Metrics <span class="u-visually-hidden">details</span></a></p> </li> </ul> </div> </header> <div class="u-js-hide" data-component="article-subject-links"> <h3 class="c-article__sub-heading">Subjects</h3> <ul class="c-article-subject-list"> <li class="c-article-subject-list__subject"><a href="/subjects/climate-change" data-track="click" data-track-action="view subject" data-track-label="link">Climate change</a></li><li class="c-article-subject-list__subject"><a href="/subjects/climate-sciences" data-track="click" data-track-action="view subject" data-track-label="link">Climate sciences</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="c-article-body"> <section aria-labelledby="Abs1" data-title="Abstract" lang="en"><div class="c-article-section" id="Abs1-section"><h2 class="c-article-section__title js-section-title js-c-reading-companion-sections-item" id="Abs1">Abstract</h2><div class="c-article-section__content" id="Abs1-content"><p>Severe thunderstorms accompanied by tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds cause an average of 5.4 billion dollars of damage each year across the United States, and 10 billion-dollar events are no longer uncommon. This overall economic and casualty risk—with over 600 severe thunderstorm related deaths in 2011—has prompted public and scientific inquiries about the impact of climate change on tornadoes. We show that national annual frequencies of tornado reports have remained relatively constant, but significant spatially-varying temporal trends in tornado frequency have occurred since 1979. Negative tendencies of tornado occurrence have been noted in portions of the central and southern Great Plains, while robust positive trends have been documented in portions of the Midwest and Southeast United States. In addition, the significant tornado parameter is used as an environmental covariate to increase confidence in the tornado report results.</p></div></div></section> <section aria-labelledby="inline-recommendations" data-title="Inline Recommendations" class="c-article-recommendations" data-track-component="inline-recommendations"> <h3 class="c-article-recommendations-title" id="inline-recommendations">Similar content being viewed by others</h3> <div class="c-article-recommendations-list"> <div class="c-article-recommendations-list__item"> <article class="c-article-recommendations-card" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ScholarlyArticle"> <div class="c-article-recommendations-card__img"><img src="https://media.springernature.com/w215h120/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41612-024-00698-y/MediaObjects/41612_2024_698_Fig1_HTML.png" loading="lazy" alt=""></div> <div class="c-article-recommendations-card__main"> <h3 class="c-article-recommendations-card__heading" itemprop="name headline"> <a class="c-article-recommendations-card__link" itemprop="url" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00698-y?fromPaywallRec=false" data-track="select_recommendations_1" data-track-context="inline recommendations" data-track-action="click recommendations inline - 1" data-track-label="10.1038/s41612-024-00698-y">The regionality and seasonality of tornado trends in the United States </a> </h3> <div class="c-article-meta-recommendations" data-test="recommendation-info"> <span class="c-article-meta-recommendations__item-type">Article</span> <span class="c-article-meta-recommendations__access-type">Open access</span> <span class="c-article-meta-recommendations__date">21 June 2024</span> </div> </div> </article> </div> <div class="c-article-recommendations-list__item"> <article class="c-article-recommendations-card" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ScholarlyArticle"> <div class="c-article-recommendations-card__img"><img src="https://media.springernature.com/w215h120/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41598-021-81143-5/MediaObjects/41598_2021_81143_Fig1_HTML.png" loading="lazy" alt=""></div> <div class="c-article-recommendations-card__main"> <h3 class="c-article-recommendations-card__heading" itemprop="name headline"> <a class="c-article-recommendations-card__link" itemprop="url" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-81143-5?fromPaywallRec=false" data-track="select_recommendations_2" data-track-context="inline recommendations" data-track-action="click recommendations inline - 2" data-track-label="10.1038/s41598-021-81143-5">Explaining the trends and variability in the United States tornado records using climate teleconnections and shifts in observational practices </a> </h3> <div class="c-article-meta-recommendations" data-test="recommendation-info"> <span class="c-article-meta-recommendations__item-type">Article</span> <span class="c-article-meta-recommendations__access-type">Open access</span> <span class="c-article-meta-recommendations__date">18 January 2021</span> </div> </div> </article> </div> <div class="c-article-recommendations-list__item"> <article class="c-article-recommendations-card" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ScholarlyArticle"> <div class="c-article-recommendations-card__img"><img src="https://media.springernature.com/w215h120/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs44304-024-00019-6/MediaObjects/44304_2024_19_Fig1_HTML.png" loading="lazy" alt=""></div> <div class="c-article-recommendations-card__main"> <h3 class="c-article-recommendations-card__heading" itemprop="name headline"> <a class="c-article-recommendations-card__link" itemprop="url" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00019-6?fromPaywallRec=false" data-track="select_recommendations_3" data-track-context="inline recommendations" data-track-action="click recommendations inline - 3" data-track-label="10.1038/s44304-024-00019-6">Changes in tornado risk and societal vulnerability leading to greater tornado impact potential </a> </h3> <div class="c-article-meta-recommendations" data-test="recommendation-info"> <span class="c-article-meta-recommendations__item-type">Article</span> <span class="c-article-meta-recommendations__access-type">Open access</span> <span class="c-article-meta-recommendations__date">19 June 2024</span> </div> </div> </article> </div> </div> </section> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; window.dataLayer.push({ recommendations: { recommender: 'semantic', model: 'specter', policy_id: 'NA', timestamp: 1739842662, embedded_user: 'null' } }); </script> <div class="main-content"> <section data-title="Introduction"><div class="c-article-section" id="Sec1-section"><h2 class="c-article-section__title js-section-title js-c-reading-companion-sections-item" id="Sec1">Introduction</h2><div class="c-article-section__content" id="Sec1-content"><p>Recent trends in global and United States temperature have provoked questions about the impact on frequency, intensity, timing, and location of tornadoes. When removing many non-meteorological factors, it is shown that the annual frequency of United States tornadoes through the most reliable portions of the historical record has remained relatively constant.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" title="Verbout, S. M., Brooks, H. E., Leslie, L. M. & Schultz, D. M. Evolution of the US tornado database: 1954–2003. Weather Forecast. 21, 86–93 (2006)." href="#ref-CR1" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e331">1</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" title="Kunkel, K. E. et al. Monitoring and understanding trends in extreme storms: state of knowledge. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 94, 499–514 (2013)." href="#ref-CR2" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e331_1">2</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" title="Tippett, M. K., Allen, J. T., Gensini, V. A. & Brooks, H. E. Climate and hazardous convective weather. Curr. Change Rep. 1, 60–73 (2015)." href="#ref-CR3" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e331_2">3</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 4" title="Long, J. A., Stoy, P. C. & Gerken, T. Tornado seasonality in the southeastern United States. Weather Clim. Extrem. 20, 81–91 (2018)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR4" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e334">4</a></sup> The most notable trends in tornado frequency are associated with increasing annual variability and a recent tendency for more tornadoes on any given tornado day.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" title="Brooks, H. E., Carbin, G. W. & Marsh, P. T. Increased variability of tornado occurrence in the United States. Science 346, 349–352 (2014)." href="#ref-CR5" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e338">5</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" title="Tippett, M. K. Changing volatility of US annual tornado reports. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 6956–6961 (2014)." href="#ref-CR6" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e338_1">6</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" title="Farney, T. J. & Dixon, P. G. Variability of tornado climatology across the continental United States. Int. J. Climatol. 35, 2993–3006 (2015)." href="#ref-CR7" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e338_2">7</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" title="Guo, L., Wang, K. & Bluestein, H. B. Variability of tornado occurrence over the continental United States since 1950. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 121, 6943–6953 (2016)." href="#ref-CR8" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e338_3">8</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 9" title="Tippett, M. K., Lepore, C. & Cohen, J. E. More tornadoes in the most extreme US tornado outbreaks. Science 354, 1419–1423 (2016)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR9" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e341">9</a></sup> There has also been a measurable shift in the annual timing of tornado season, but it is currently unknown if this is due to rising global temperatures or natural variability.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 10" title="Long, J. A. & Stoy, P. C. Peak tornado activity is occurring earlier in the heart of “Tornado Alley”. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 6259–6264 (2014)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR10" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e345">10</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 11" title="Lu, M., Tippett, M. & Lall, U. Changes in the seasonality of tornado and favorable genesis conditions in the central United States. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 4224–4231 (2015)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR11" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e348">11</a></sup> Two recent studies show increased tornado frequency in the eastern United States and decreased activity generally in the central United States, but analyses were limited to epochs.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 7" title="Farney, T. J. & Dixon, P. G. Variability of tornado climatology across the continental United States. Int. J. Climatol. 35, 2993–3006 (2015)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR7" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e352">7</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 12" title="Agee, E., Larson, J., Childs, S. & Marmo, A. Spatial redistribution of US Tornado activity between 1954 and 2013. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 55, 1681–1697 (2016)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR12" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e355">12</a></sup> In addition, decreasing tornado frequency trends in the Great Plains and increasing trends in the Southeast are present in annual counts of E(F)1 + tornadoes.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 13" title="Moore, T. W. Annual and seasonal tornado trends in the contiguous United States and its regions. Int. J. Climatol. 38, 1582–1594 (2018)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR13" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e359">13</a></sup> Despite these changes, detecting spatial shifts in tornado frequency has proved challenging given the relatively small spatial and temporal scales associated with tornado-producing thunderstorms and the well-documented deficiencies accompanying the tornado reporting database.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 1" title="Verbout, S. M., Brooks, H. E., Leslie, L. M. & Schultz, D. M. Evolution of the US tornado database: 1954–2003. Weather Forecast. 21, 86–93 (2006)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR1" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e364">1</a></sup> The work herein seeks to examine spatial trends in tornado environments and tornado frequency at finer-scale resolutions in space and time.</p><p>These deficiencies have motivated researchers to focus on developing and analyzing atmospheric derived indices relating environmental conditions to tornado occurrence. Such indices are often used in an ingredients-based approach commonly utilized in operational weather forecasting.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 14" title="Johns, R. H. & Doswell, C. A. III Severe local storms forecasting. Weather Forecast. 7, 588–612 (1992)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR14" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e371">14</a></sup> The significant tornado parameter (STP) is one such index, originally designed as a statistical discriminator between non-tornado and significant ([E]F2 or greater using the Fujita damage scale) tornado environments.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 15" title="Thompson, R. L., Edwards, R., Hart, J. A., Elmore, K. L. & Markowski, P. Close proximity soundings within supercell environments obtained from the Rapid Update Cycle. Weather Forecast. 18, 1243–1261 (2003)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR15" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e375">15</a></sup> STP is a commonly used operational weather forecasting index, but no research has used STP to examine the covariant relationship with aspects of the United States tornado report climatology.</p><p>A derived covariate, such as STP, is complementary to tornado reports for climatological studies. For example, it has been shown that variables like storm relative helicity and convective precipitation adequately represent United States monthly tornado frequency.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 16" title="Tippett, M. K., Sobel, A. H., Camargo, S. J. & Allen, J. T. An empirical relation between US tornado activity and monthly environmental parameters. J. Clim. 27, 2983–2999 (2014)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR16" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e382">16</a></sup> Reports are subject to a human reporting process, whereas environmental covariates allow for an objective model-derived climatology. One major limitation of the covariate methodology for tornadoes is the lack of accounting for a thunderstorm initiation metric. It is well documented that tornadoes occur in environments characteristic of adequate vertical wind shear, relatively high surface water vapor mixing ratios, low static stability, and directional change in the lowest 1-km of tropospheric wind.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 17" title="Rasmussen, E. N. & Blanchard, D. O. A baseline climatology of sounding-derived supercell and tornado forecast parameters. Weather Forecast. 13, 1148–1164 (1998)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR17" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e386">17</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 18" title="Rasmussen, E. N. Refined supercell and tornado forecast parameters. Weather Forecast. 18, 530–535 (2003)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR18" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e389">18</a></sup> Yet, even with a supportive atmosphere, thunderstorms may not form in the absence of an initial lifting mechanism needed to commence the convective process. The space and time scales of various lifting sources are often below the spatial scale of current reanalysis observation capabilities, and thus, not accounted for by most covariate environmental metrics. This often leads to an overestimation of favorable tornado environments and a lack of explanatory capability regarding observed tornado reports, especially when convective inhibition is present.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 19" title="Gensini, V. A. & Ashley, W. S. Climatology of potentially severe convective environments from the North American regional reanalysis.E J. Severe Storms Meteorol. 6, 1–40 (2011)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR19" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e393">19</a></sup></p><p>Recent increases in computational efficiency have led several studies to explicitly depict severe convective storms in convective permitting regional climate model configurations to evade the previously discussed environmental caveats.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" title="Trapp, R. J., Robinson, E. D., Baldwin, M. E., Diffenbaugh, N. S. & Schwedler, B. R. Regional climate of hazardous convective weather through high-resolution dynamical downscaling. Clim. Dyn. 37, 677–688 (2011)." href="#ref-CR20" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e399">20</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" title="Mahoney, K., Alexander, M. A., Thompson, G., Barsugli, J. J. & Scott, J. D. Changes in hail and flood risk in high-resolution simulations over Colorado’s mountains.Nat. Clim. Change 125, 125–131 (2012)." href="#ref-CR21" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e399_1">21</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" title="Gensini, V. A. & Mote, T. L. Estimations of hazardous convective weather in the United States using dynamical downscaling. J. Clim. 27, 6581–6589 (2014)." href="#ref-CR22" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e399_2">22</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" title="Gensini, V. A. & Mote, T. L. Downscaled estimates of late 21st century severe weather from CCSM3. Clim. Change 129, 307–321 (2015)." href="#ref-CR23" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e399_3">23</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" title="Robinson, E. D., Trapp, R. J. & Baldwin, M. E. The geospatial and temporal distributions of severe thunderstorms from high-resolution dynamical downscaling. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 52, 2147–2161 (2013)." href="#ref-CR24" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e399_4">24</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 25" title="Hoogewind, K. A., Baldwin, M. E. & Trapp, R. J. The Impact of climate change on hazardous convective weather in the United States: insight from high-resolution dynamical downscaling. J. Clim. 30, 10081–10100 (2017)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR25" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e402">25</a></sup> These dynamical downscaling approaches (sometimes referred to as model telescoping) have proven reliable for the replication of spatial frequency and temporal timing of the annual peak of boreal severe weather activity. Potential changes in characteristics of late 21<sup>st</sup> century severe weather activity have also been posited by these methods. However, due to the resource intensive nature of these approaches, long model-derived climatologies are often unfeasible and it is not yet clear if the explanatory capability is significantly better than environments to justify the resources necessary to conduct such simulations.</p><p>This research focuses on an environmental covariate approach to examine potential changes in United States tornado frequency. In particular, we begin by analyzing an aggregated covariate methodology in an attempt to explain the variance associated with monthly and annual United States tornado reports. We further examine the spatio-temporal changes in this covariate over the past ~40 years. This allows us to draw conclusions about the regional trends in frequency of tornado environments. We conclude by comparing the covariate trend analyses to actual tornado reporting trends to strengthen the presented results. Ultimately, our research highlights that trends in United States tornado frequency are regional in nature and this change in physical risk has implications for tornado exposure and vulnerability.</p></div></div></section><section data-title="Results"><div class="c-article-section" id="Sec2-section"><h2 class="c-article-section__title js-section-title js-c-reading-companion-sections-item" id="Sec2">Results</h2><div class="c-article-section__content" id="Sec2-content"><p>Despite the aforementioned environmental caveats, annual accumulated diurnal max STP is a statistically significant covariate to annual United States tornado reports (Fig. <a data-track="click" data-track-label="link" data-track-action="figure anchor" href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#Fig1">1</a>). This degree of explanatory power (44% of the variance in annual tornado counts is explained by accumulated diurnal maximum STP) suggests that STP may be used as a climatological proxy for annual tornado report counts. At the monthly scale, accumulated STP exhibits a seasonal trend in explanatory power. Monthly standardized anomalies of accumulated diurnal maximum STP for January, February, March, May, and December all explain roughly half of the variance associated with the standardized anomaly of monthly United States tornado counts (Fig. <a data-track="click" data-track-label="link" data-track-action="figure anchor" href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#Fig2">2</a>). August displays a minimum in variance explanation (9%), and it is speculated this is a function of the mesoscale nature of late boreal summer tornado environments and larger contributions to the monthly count climatologies from tropical storms and hurricanes. Standardized anomaly regression slopes reveal that monthly accumulated STP is a conservative estimator of monthly tornado counts, and this bias is greatest in the boreal summer (Fig. <a data-track="click" data-track-label="link" data-track-action="figure anchor" href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#Fig2">2</a>). The null hypothesis of, “Monthly accumulated STP does not explain statistically significant amounts of variance in monthly tornado counts” was rejected at the 0.01 significance level for all months except August. Thus, the STP covariate can be applied at the monthly scale, but caution should be used due to the seasonal changes in the coefficient of determination and level of statistical significance.</p><div class="c-article-section__figure js-c-reading-companion-figures-item" data-test="figure" data-container-section="figure" id="figure-1" data-title="Fig. 1"><figure><figcaption><b id="Fig1" class="c-article-section__figure-caption" data-test="figure-caption-text">Fig. 1</b></figcaption><div class="c-article-section__figure-content"><div class="c-article-section__figure-item"><a class="c-article-section__figure-link" data-test="img-link" data-track="click" data-track-label="image" data-track-action="view figure" href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2/figures/1" rel="nofollow"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="//media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41612-018-0048-2/MediaObjects/41612_2018_48_Fig1_HTML.png?as=webp"><img aria-describedby="Fig1" src="//media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41612-018-0048-2/MediaObjects/41612_2018_48_Fig1_HTML.png" alt="figure 1" loading="lazy" width="685" height="455"></picture></a></div><div class="c-article-section__figure-description" data-test="bottom-caption" id="figure-1-desc"><p>Scatter plot of United States annual tornado counts vs. United States annual accumulated significant tornado parameter (1979–2017) from NARR</p></div></div><div class="u-text-right u-hide-print"><a class="c-article__pill-button" data-test="article-link" data-track="click" data-track-label="button" data-track-action="view figure" href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2/figures/1" data-track-dest="link:Figure1 Full size image" aria-label="Full size image figure 1" rel="nofollow"><span>Full size image</span><svg width="16" height="16" focusable="false" role="img" aria-hidden="true" class="u-icon"><use xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="#icon-eds-i-chevron-right-small"></use></svg></a></div></figure></div><div class="c-article-section__figure js-c-reading-companion-figures-item" data-test="figure" data-container-section="figure" id="figure-2" data-title="Fig. 2"><figure><figcaption><b id="Fig2" class="c-article-section__figure-caption" data-test="figure-caption-text">Fig. 2</b></figcaption><div class="c-article-section__figure-content"><div class="c-article-section__figure-item"><a class="c-article-section__figure-link" data-test="img-link" data-track="click" data-track-label="image" data-track-action="view figure" href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2/figures/2" rel="nofollow"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="//media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41612-018-0048-2/MediaObjects/41612_2018_48_Fig2_HTML.png?as=webp"><img aria-describedby="Fig2" src="//media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41612-018-0048-2/MediaObjects/41612_2018_48_Fig2_HTML.png" alt="figure 2" loading="lazy" width="685" height="508"></picture></a></div><div class="c-article-section__figure-description" data-test="bottom-caption" id="figure-2-desc"><p>1979–2017 Unites States monthly tornado reports and accumulated diurnal maximum STP (expressed here as a standardized anomaly by month) from NARR. Regression <i>r</i><sup><i>2</i></sup> and <i>p</i> values are listed next to their respective months</p></div></div><div class="u-text-right u-hide-print"><a class="c-article__pill-button" data-test="article-link" data-track="click" data-track-label="button" data-track-action="view figure" href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2/figures/2" data-track-dest="link:Figure2 Full size image" aria-label="Full size image figure 2" rel="nofollow"><span>Full size image</span><svg width="16" height="16" focusable="false" role="img" aria-hidden="true" class="u-icon"><use xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="#icon-eds-i-chevron-right-small"></use></svg></a></div></figure></div><p>Examining annual tornado report counts and accumulated annual STP through time confirm this explanatory relationship and give further confidence in the use of STP as a climatological tornado report proxy (Fig. <a data-track="click" data-track-label="link" data-track-action="figure anchor" href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#Fig3">3</a>). Both tornado counts and STP indicate a slight positive trend through time over the analysis period, which starts at the beginning of the modern Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) era. Consistent tornado reporting data exists back to the early 1950s, but there are currently no datasets that allow for the space and time scales necessary to adequately retroactively compute STP back to 1950, and hence, we are limited here to the analysis period 1979–2017. Most of the increase in tornado reporting is observed from the late 1980s to the early 2000s, with a steady or even declining trend thereafter which is consistent with previous research.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 3" title="Tippett, M. K., Allen, J. T., Gensini, V. A. & Brooks, H. E. Climate and hazardous convective weather. Curr. Change Rep. 1, 60–73 (2015)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR3" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e479">3</a></sup></p><div class="c-article-section__figure js-c-reading-companion-figures-item" data-test="figure" data-container-section="figure" id="figure-3" data-title="Fig. 3"><figure><figcaption><b id="Fig3" class="c-article-section__figure-caption" data-test="figure-caption-text">Fig. 3</b></figcaption><div class="c-article-section__figure-content"><div class="c-article-section__figure-item"><a class="c-article-section__figure-link" data-test="img-link" data-track="click" data-track-label="image" data-track-action="view figure" href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2/figures/3" rel="nofollow"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="//media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41612-018-0048-2/MediaObjects/41612_2018_48_Fig3_HTML.png?as=webp"><img aria-describedby="Fig3" src="//media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41612-018-0048-2/MediaObjects/41612_2018_48_Fig3_HTML.png" alt="figure 3" loading="lazy" width="685" height="445"></picture></a></div><div class="c-article-section__figure-description" data-test="bottom-caption" id="figure-3-desc"><p>Interannual variability of United States tornado reports (blue; axis left) and the United States annual sum of daily max significant tornado parameter (red; axis right) from NARR</p></div></div><div class="u-text-right u-hide-print"><a class="c-article__pill-button" data-test="article-link" data-track="click" data-track-label="button" data-track-action="view figure" href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2/figures/3" data-track-dest="link:Figure3 Full size image" aria-label="Full size image figure 3" rel="nofollow"><span>Full size image</span><svg width="16" height="16" focusable="false" role="img" aria-hidden="true" class="u-icon"><use xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="#icon-eds-i-chevron-right-small"></use></svg></a></div></figure></div><p>Of greatest interest here is the potential for shifts in the spatial location of tornado frequency. Research has identified evidence of a “Dixie Alley,” which represents an eastward extension of the traditional "Tornado Alley" in the central Great Plains.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 26" title="Dixon, P. G., Mercer, A. E., Choi, J. & Allen, J. S. Tornado risk analysis: Is Dixie alley an extension of tornado alley? Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 92, 433–441 (2011)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR26" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e502">26</a></sup> However, this could be due to the techniques used to smooth reports in space and time.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 27" title="Marsh, P. T. & Brooks, H. E. Comments on “Tornado risk analysis: is Dixie Alley an extension of Tornado Alley?”. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 405–407 (2012)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR27" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e506">27</a></sup> An eastward shift in tornado frequency was also suggested, but results were limited to two arbitrary regions, coarse spatial environmental covariates, and lacked a robust environmental tornado report proxy such as STP.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 12" title="Agee, E., Larson, J., Childs, S. & Marmo, A. Spatial redistribution of US Tornado activity between 1954 and 2013. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 55, 1681–1697 (2016)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR12" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e510">12</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 13" title="Moore, T. W. Annual and seasonal tornado trends in the contiguous United States and its regions. Int. J. Climatol. 38, 1582–1594 (2018)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR13" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e513">13</a></sup> Using Theil-Sen slope analysis—a robust linear trend estimator which is insensitive to outliers—and Kendall’s τ test for statistical significance, we show a robust downward trend in the annual accumulation of STP across the central and southern Great Plains. Meanwhile, a robust upward trend is found in portions of the Southeast, Midwest, and Northeast (Fig. <a data-track="click" data-track-label="link" data-track-action="figure anchor" href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#Fig4">4</a>). No significant increase (decrease) in tornado environments is observed west (east) of the 95<sup>th</sup> meridian. We believe these trends in tornado environments are significant and have not been documented with this level of detail by previous research.</p><div class="c-article-section__figure js-c-reading-companion-figures-item" data-test="figure" data-container-section="figure" id="figure-4" data-title="Fig. 4"><figure><figcaption><b id="Fig4" class="c-article-section__figure-caption" data-test="figure-caption-text">Fig. 4</b></figcaption><div class="c-article-section__figure-content"><div class="c-article-section__figure-item"><a class="c-article-section__figure-link" data-test="img-link" data-track="click" data-track-label="image" data-track-action="view figure" href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2/figures/4" rel="nofollow"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="//media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41612-018-0048-2/MediaObjects/41612_2018_48_Fig4_HTML.png?as=webp"><img aria-describedby="Fig4" src="//media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41612-018-0048-2/MediaObjects/41612_2018_48_Fig4_HTML.png" alt="figure 4" loading="lazy" width="685" height="592"></picture></a></div><div class="c-article-section__figure-description" data-test="bottom-caption" id="figure-4-desc"><p>Theil-Sen slope analysis of 1979–2017 annual grid-point sum of daily max STP from NARR. <i>p</i> values are hatched at values ≤ 0.05 significance using Kendall’s τ statistic. Slope units are sum of daily max STP per year</p></div></div><div class="u-text-right u-hide-print"><a class="c-article__pill-button" data-test="article-link" data-track="click" data-track-label="button" data-track-action="view figure" href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2/figures/4" data-track-dest="link:Figure4 Full size image" aria-label="Full size image figure 4" rel="nofollow"><span>Full size image</span><svg width="16" height="16" focusable="false" role="img" aria-hidden="true" class="u-icon"><use xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="#icon-eds-i-chevron-right-small"></use></svg></a></div></figure></div><p>Given these environmental tendencies, one would also suspect to find such evidence of trends in tornado reports given the explanatory power of the STP covariate. Indeed, significant trends in the spatial frequency of annual tornado reports are found over the analysis period (Fig. <a data-track="click" data-track-label="link" data-track-action="figure anchor" href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#Fig5">5</a>). Both tornado reports and environments indicate significant decreasing trends in frequency over portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and northeast Colorado. Agreement in the sign of the Theil-Sen slope is also noted for significant increasing trends in portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, and Kentucky. We are most confident about the trends in these areas, where both tornado reports and environments share the same significant sign of Theil-Sen’s slope. Confidence in the trends of tornado frequency are reduced in areas where the sign of Theil-Sen’s slope is opposite or do not share statistical significance. For example, significant increases in tornado reporting trends are found across Kansas, but environments indicate a neutral or downward trend. Additionally, tornado environments indicate a robust increasing trend in portions of Arkansas and Louisiana that are not supported by tornado reporting trends. We cannot offer a physical reason for these discrepancies at the current time, but they may be a function of non-continuous regional/seasonal efficiencies of the STP covariate (e.g., biases shown in Fig. <a data-track="click" data-track-label="link" data-track-action="figure anchor" href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#Fig2">2</a>) and biases in the tornado report database. We speculate the non-continuous regional/seasonal efficiencies of STP are a function of convective initiation and forcing for ascent. In addition, STP was designed with the intention of evaluating environments favorable for right-moving supercells in the Great Plains of the U.S. and not necessarily non-mesocyclone tornadoes.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 15" title="Thompson, R. L., Edwards, R., Hart, J. A., Elmore, K. L. & Markowski, P. Close proximity soundings within supercell environments obtained from the Rapid Update Cycle. Weather Forecast. 18, 1243–1261 (2003)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR15" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e553">15</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 28" title="R. Davies-Jones, R. J., Trapp, H. B. Bluestein, tornadoes, and tornadic storms. in Severe Convective Storms (Charles A. Doswell III eds.) 167–221 (American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, 2001)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR28" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e556">28</a></sup> However, results associated with reports herein are generally consistent with an increasing trend found in the Southeast United States due to a greater propensity for tornado outbreaks east of the Mississippi River.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 29" title="Childs, S. J., Schumacher, R. S. & Allen, J. T. Cold-season tornadoes: climatological and meteorological insights. Weather Forecast. 33, 671–691 (2018)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR29" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e560">29</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 30" title="Moore, T. W. On the temporal and spatial characteristics of tornado days in the United States. Atmos. Res. 184, 56–65 (2017)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR30" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e563">30</a></sup></p><div class="c-article-section__figure js-c-reading-companion-figures-item" data-test="figure" data-container-section="figure" id="figure-5" data-title="Fig. 5"><figure><figcaption><b id="Fig5" class="c-article-section__figure-caption" data-test="figure-caption-text">Fig. 5</b></figcaption><div class="c-article-section__figure-content"><div class="c-article-section__figure-item"><a class="c-article-section__figure-link" data-test="img-link" data-track="click" data-track-label="image" data-track-action="view figure" href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2/figures/5" rel="nofollow"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="//media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41612-018-0048-2/MediaObjects/41612_2018_48_Fig5_HTML.png?as=webp"><img aria-describedby="Fig5" src="//media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41612-018-0048-2/MediaObjects/41612_2018_48_Fig5_HTML.png" alt="figure 5" loading="lazy" width="685" height="591"></picture></a></div><div class="c-article-section__figure-description" data-test="bottom-caption" id="figure-5-desc"><p>Theil-Sen slope analysis of 1979<i>–</i>2017 annual gridded tornado reports. <i>p</i> values are hatched at values ≤ 0.05 significance using Kendall’s τ statistic. Slope units are reports per year * 10<sup>−1</sup></p></div></div><div class="u-text-right u-hide-print"><a class="c-article__pill-button" data-test="article-link" data-track="click" data-track-label="button" data-track-action="view figure" href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2/figures/5" data-track-dest="link:Figure5 Full size image" aria-label="Full size image figure 5" rel="nofollow"><span>Full size image</span><svg width="16" height="16" focusable="false" role="img" aria-hidden="true" class="u-icon"><use xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="#icon-eds-i-chevron-right-small"></use></svg></a></div></figure></div><p>Further examination reveals that spatial trends in tornado environment frequency are modulated by seasons (Fig. <a data-track="click" data-track-label="link" data-track-action="figure anchor" href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#Fig6">6</a>). Positive trends in tornado environment frequency are shown to progress northward through the annual cycle. Most of the decreasing trends across Texas are due to the months of March, April, and May (Fig. <a data-track="click" data-track-label="link" data-track-action="figure anchor" href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#Fig6">6b</a>), and most of the Great Plains has shown a decreasing trend in tornado environments during June, July, and August (Fig. <a data-track="click" data-track-label="link" data-track-action="figure anchor" href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#Fig6">6c</a>). It should be noted that our results do not indicate that maximum United States tornado environment and report frequency is no longer in the Great Plains. Rather, we demonstrate there has been a robust downward trend of tornado environments and reports in portions of the Great Plains concurrent with a simultaneous robust increasing trend in areas surrounding the Mississippi River Valley and the Midwest.</p><div class="c-article-section__figure js-c-reading-companion-figures-item" data-test="figure" data-container-section="figure" id="figure-6" data-title="Fig. 6"><figure><figcaption><b id="Fig6" class="c-article-section__figure-caption" data-test="figure-caption-text">Fig. 6</b></figcaption><div class="c-article-section__figure-content"><div class="c-article-section__figure-item"><a class="c-article-section__figure-link" data-test="img-link" data-track="click" data-track-label="image" data-track-action="view figure" href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2/figures/6" rel="nofollow"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="//media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41612-018-0048-2/MediaObjects/41612_2018_48_Fig6_HTML.png?as=webp"><img aria-describedby="Fig6" src="//media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41612-018-0048-2/MediaObjects/41612_2018_48_Fig6_HTML.png" alt="figure 6" loading="lazy" width="685" height="575"></picture></a></div><div class="c-article-section__figure-description" data-test="bottom-caption" id="figure-6-desc"><p>Theil-Sen slope of 1979–2017 annual grid-point sum of daily max STP for a) December, January, February; b) March, April, May; c) June, July, August; and d) September, October, November. <i>p</i> values are hatched at values ≤ 0.05 significance using Kendall’s τ statistic. Slope units are sum of daily max STP per year</p></div></div><div class="u-text-right u-hide-print"><a class="c-article__pill-button" data-test="article-link" data-track="click" data-track-label="button" data-track-action="view figure" href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2/figures/6" data-track-dest="link:Figure6 Full size image" aria-label="Full size image figure 6" rel="nofollow"><span>Full size image</span><svg width="16" height="16" focusable="false" role="img" aria-hidden="true" class="u-icon"><use xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="#icon-eds-i-chevron-right-small"></use></svg></a></div></figure></div></div></div></section><section data-title="Discussion"><div class="c-article-section" id="Sec3-section"><h2 class="c-article-section__title js-section-title js-c-reading-companion-sections-item" id="Sec3">Discussion</h2><div class="c-article-section__content" id="Sec3-content"><p>The presented trends in spatial tornado frequency are important for understanding the tornado as a hazard, which involves examining the comingling of physical risk (i.e., climatological probability of a tornado report) and societal vulnerability (e.g., population density). Such increases in tornado frequency across the Mid-South juxtapose with an already vulnerable population to tornadoes. In fact, this geographic area of the United States already represents a maximum in the occurrence of casualties associated with tornadoes.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 31" title="Ashley, W. S. Spatial and temporal analysis of tornado fatalities in the United States: 1880–2005. Weather Forecast. 22, 1214–1228 (2007)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR31" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e633">31</a></sup> Climate downscaling and societal vulnerability studies also highlight the Mid-South as having the greatest potential for increased tornado disasters by the end of the century.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 23" title="Gensini, V. A. & Mote, T. L. Downscaled estimates of late 21st century severe weather from CCSM3. Clim. Change 129, 307–321 (2015)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR23" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e637">23</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 25" title="Hoogewind, K. A., Baldwin, M. E. & Trapp, R. J. The Impact of climate change on hazardous convective weather in the United States: insight from high-resolution dynamical downscaling. J. Clim. 30, 10081–10100 (2017)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR25" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e640">25</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 32" title="Strader, S. M., Ashley, W. S., Pingel, T. J. & Krmenec, A. J. Projected 21st century changes in tornado exposure, risk, and disaster potential. Clim. Change 141, 301–313 (2017)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR32" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e643">32</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 33" title="Strader, S. M., Ashley, W. S., Pingel, T. J. & Krmenec, A. J. Observed and projected changes in United States tornado exposure. Weather, Clim., Soc. 9, 109–123 (2017)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR33" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e646">33</a></sup></p><p>Economic losses associated with tornadoes will continue to increase in future years, both due to the spatial changes presented herein and the expanding footprint of the built environment.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 34" title="Ashley, W. S. & Strader, S. M. Recipe for disaster: How the dynamic ingredients of risk and exposure are changing the tornado disaster landscape. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 97, 767–786 (2016)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR34" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e652">34</a></sup> It is noted that the impacts associated with projected 21<sup>st</sup> century increases in tornado frequency are outweighed by projected growth in the human-built environment. However, the combination of an increase in risk and exposure could lead to a threefold increase in tornado disaster potential.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 32" title="Strader, S. M., Ashley, W. S., Pingel, T. J. & Krmenec, A. J. Projected 21st century changes in tornado exposure, risk, and disaster potential. Clim. Change 141, 301–313 (2017)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR32" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e658">32</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 33" title="Strader, S. M., Ashley, W. S., Pingel, T. J. & Krmenec, A. J. Observed and projected changes in United States tornado exposure. Weather, Clim., Soc. 9, 109–123 (2017)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR33" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e661">33</a></sup> Thus, it is important to continue monitoring the presented physical trends in tornado frequency and recognize that they have consequences for increases in tornado disaster potential.</p><p>At this point, it is unclear whether the observed trends in tornado environment and report frequency are due to natural variability or being altered by anthropogenic forcing on the climate system. Global and regional climate model studies indicate a general increase in severe weather frequency (especially in boreal spring) and variability by the end of the 21st century in portions of the Midwest and Southeast, suggesting that the trends herein may indeed be due to anthropogenic forcing given the accumulating literature examining tornado/severe weather frequency and variability.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 3" title="Tippett, M. K., Allen, J. T., Gensini, V. A. & Brooks, H. E. Climate and hazardous convective weather. Curr. Change Rep. 1, 60–73 (2015)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR3" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e668">3</a></sup> This eastward shift is also consistent with recent work suggesting an eastward shift in the “effective 100th meridian” as the century progresses.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 35" title="Seager, R. et al. Whither the 100th meridian? The once and future physical and human geography of America’s Arid–Humid Divide. Part II: the meridian moves east. Earth Interact. 22, 1–24 (2018)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR35" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e672">35</a></sup> It is difficult to isolate these natural vs. anthropogenic factors, but perhaps future attribution studies will be able to describe such causal mechanisms.</p></div></div></section><section data-title="Methods"><div class="c-article-section" id="Sec4-section"><h2 class="c-article-section__title js-section-title js-c-reading-companion-sections-item" id="Sec4">Methods</h2><div class="c-article-section__content" id="Sec4-content"><p>Tornado data were retrieved from the Storm Prediction Center’s online database (described online at <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data">http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data</a>] for the period 1979–2017. All tornadoes were used in this analysis. Data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR; <sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 36" title="Mesinger, F. et al. North American regional reanalysis. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 87, 343–360 (2006)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR36" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e691">36</a></sup>) was used to calculate the STP (a unitless derived environmental variable) covariate. 3-hourly data were downloaded from the NCAR/UCAR research data archive portal (<a href="https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds608.0/">https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds608.0/</a>) for the period 1979–2017.</p><p>STP was calculated following a fixed-layer<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 15" title="Thompson, R. L., Edwards, R., Hart, J. A., Elmore, K. L. & Markowski, P. Close proximity soundings within supercell environments obtained from the Rapid Update Cycle. Weather Forecast. 18, 1243–1261 (2003)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR15" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e705">15</a></sup> approach:</p><div id="Equa" class="c-article-equation"><div class="c-article-equation__content"><span class="mathjax-tex">$${\mathrm{STP}} = \frac{{{\mathrm{SBCAPE}}}}{{{\mathrm{1500}}}} \times \frac{{\left( {{\mathrm{2000 - SBLCL}}} \right)}}{{{\mathrm{1000}}}} \times \frac{{{\mathrm{SRH01}}}}{{{\mathrm{150}}}} \times \frac{{{\mathrm{BWD06}}}}{{{\mathrm{20}}}}$$</span></div></div><p>using surface-based convective available potential energy (SBCAPE), surface-based lifting condensation level (SBLCL), 0–1 km storm relative helicity (SRH01), and 0–6 km bulk wind difference (BWD06). Since NARR data use an isobaric vertical coordinate system, data were vertically interpolated from NARR isobaric levels to AGL height coordinates for AGL calculations (e.g., 0–6 km). In addition, STP was masked in the presence of convective inhibition < −50 J kg<sup>−1</sup> in an attempt to examine environments most favorable for tornadoes. STP was computed on the native NARR 32-km lambert conformal grid. An accumulated STP metric was derived as a covariate for comparison to the annual tornado report counts by finding the diurnal (1200–1200 UTC) max STP value from NARR 3-hourly data and summing all CONUS land point daily maximums over the year to create annual accumulation values. 1200–1200 UTC was chosen for the daily cycle to capture diurnally driven supercell and tornado climatology.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 37" title="Kelly, D., Schaefer, J., McNulty, R., Doswell, C. III & Abbey, R. Jr An augmented tornado climatology. Mon. Weather Rev. 106, 1172–1183 (1978)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR37" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e809">37</a></sup> Annual diurnal max accumulations were used to explain annual tornado report variability. For monthly regressions, a standardized anomaly was calculated for both monthly tornado counts and monthly accumulation of diurnal maximum STP. Regression slopes of these standardized anomaly relationships were examined to demonstrate monthly explanatory capability, variability, and bias.</p><p>For spatial trend analysis of the STP covariate, a Theil-Sen estimator was calculated at each native NARR grid point on the interannual accumulation values. Theil-Sen slope analysis was chosen due its efficient computation and insensitivity to outliers.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 38" title="Wilcox, R. R. Fundamentals of Modern Statistical Methods: Substantially Improving Power And Accuracy. (Springer Science & Business Media, New York. 2010)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR38" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e816">38</a></sup> Significance of the Theil-Sen slope was assessed using Kendall’s τ statistic and a <i>p</i> value at the 0.05 significance level. Since tornado reports are point objects in space and time—and not gridded—reports were binned in space on a 1° latitude by 1° longitude grid using the same lambert conformal projection as NARR data and smoothed in space using a 1-σ Gaussian kernel. Theil-Sen slope analysis and Kendall’s τ statistic were then calculated on interannual gridded tornado reports using the same methodology for accumulated STP. The authors note that due to the number of statistical tests, familywise error rate, and inherent autocorrelation in time and space of climatological data, such analyses are potentially impacted by the multiple testing problem.<sup><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 38" title="Wilcox, R. R. Fundamentals of Modern Statistical Methods: Substantially Improving Power And Accuracy. (Springer Science & Business Media, New York. 2010)." href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2#ref-CR38" id="ref-link-section-d567727903e823">38</a></sup></p></div></div></section> </div> <div class="u-mt-32"> <section data-title="Data availability"><div class="c-article-section" id="data-availability-section"><h2 class="c-article-section__title js-section-title js-c-reading-companion-sections-item" id="data-availability">Data availability</h2><div class="c-article-section__content" id="data-availability-content"> <p>Tornado reports are available from the storm events database at <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data">http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data</a>. NARR data were downloaded from the Research Data Archive (RDA) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) at <a href="http://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds608.0/">http://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds608.0/</a>.</p> </div></div></section><div id="MagazineFulltextArticleBodySuffix"><section aria-labelledby="Bib1" data-title="References"><div class="c-article-section" id="Bib1-section"><h2 class="c-article-section__title js-section-title js-c-reading-companion-sections-item" id="Bib1">References</h2><div class="c-article-section__content" id="Bib1-content"><div data-container-section="references"><ol class="c-article-references" data-track-component="outbound reference" data-track-context="references section"><li class="c-article-references__item js-c-reading-companion-references-item" data-counter="1."><p class="c-article-references__text" id="ref-CR1">Verbout, S. M., Brooks, H. E., Leslie, L. M. & Schultz, D. M. 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Gensini</p></li><li id="Aff2"><p class="c-article-author-affiliation__address">National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK, 73072, USA</p><p class="c-article-author-affiliation__authors-list">Harold E. Brooks</p></li></ol><div class="u-js-hide u-hide-print" data-test="author-info"><span class="c-article__sub-heading">Authors</span><ol class="c-article-authors-search u-list-reset"><li id="auth-Vittorio_A_-Gensini-Aff1"><span class="c-article-authors-search__title u-h3 js-search-name">Vittorio A. Gensini</span><div class="c-article-authors-search__list"><div class="c-article-authors-search__item c-article-authors-search__list-item--left"><a href="/search?author=Vittorio%20A.%20Gensini" class="c-article-button" data-track="click" data-track-action="author link - publication" data-track-label="link" rel="nofollow">View author publications</a></div><div class="c-article-authors-search__item c-article-authors-search__list-item--right"><p class="search-in-title-js c-article-authors-search__text">You can also search for this author in <span class="c-article-identifiers"><a class="c-article-identifiers__item" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=search&term=Vittorio%20A.%20Gensini" data-track="click" data-track-action="author link - pubmed" data-track-label="link" rel="nofollow">PubMed</a><span class="u-hide"> </span><a class="c-article-identifiers__item" href="http://scholar.google.co.uk/scholar?as_q=&num=10&btnG=Search+Scholar&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&as_occt=any&as_sauthors=%22Vittorio%20A.%20Gensini%22&as_publication=&as_ylo=&as_yhi=&as_allsubj=all&hl=en" data-track="click" data-track-action="author link - scholar" data-track-label="link" rel="nofollow">Google Scholar</a></span></p></div></div></li><li id="auth-Harold_E_-Brooks-Aff2"><span class="c-article-authors-search__title u-h3 js-search-name">Harold E. Brooks</span><div class="c-article-authors-search__list"><div class="c-article-authors-search__item c-article-authors-search__list-item--left"><a href="/search?author=Harold%20E.%20Brooks" class="c-article-button" data-track="click" data-track-action="author link - publication" data-track-label="link" rel="nofollow">View author publications</a></div><div class="c-article-authors-search__item c-article-authors-search__list-item--right"><p class="search-in-title-js c-article-authors-search__text">You can also search for this author in <span class="c-article-identifiers"><a class="c-article-identifiers__item" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=search&term=Harold%20E.%20Brooks" data-track="click" data-track-action="author link - pubmed" data-track-label="link" rel="nofollow">PubMed</a><span class="u-hide"> </span><a class="c-article-identifiers__item" href="http://scholar.google.co.uk/scholar?as_q=&num=10&btnG=Search+Scholar&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&as_occt=any&as_sauthors=%22Harold%20E.%20Brooks%22&as_publication=&as_ylo=&as_yhi=&as_allsubj=all&hl=en" data-track="click" data-track-action="author link - scholar" data-track-label="link" rel="nofollow">Google Scholar</a></span></p></div></div></li></ol></div><h3 class="c-article__sub-heading" id="contributions">Contributions</h3><p>V.A.G. designed research, conducted primary analysis, prepared figures, and wrote the manuscript. H.E.B. assisted with writing and research design.</p><h3 class="c-article__sub-heading" id="corresponding-author">Corresponding author</h3><p id="corresponding-author-list">Correspondence to <a id="corresp-c1" href="mailto:vgensini@niu.edu">Vittorio A. 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id="citeas">Cite this article</h3><p class="c-bibliographic-information__citation">Gensini, V.A., Brooks, H.E. Spatial trends in United States tornado frequency. <i>npj Clim Atmos Sci</i> <b>1</b>, 38 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0048-2</p><p class="c-bibliographic-information__download-citation u-hide-print"><a data-test="citation-link" data-track="click" data-track-action="download article citation" data-track-label="link" data-track-external="" rel="nofollow" href="https://citation-needed.springer.com/v2/references/10.1038/s41612-018-0048-2?format=refman&flavour=citation">Download citation<svg width="16" height="16" focusable="false" role="img" aria-hidden="true" class="u-icon"><use xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="#icon-eds-i-download-medium"></use></svg></a></p><ul class="c-bibliographic-information__list" data-test="publication-history"><li class="c-bibliographic-information__list-item"><p>Received<span class="u-hide">: </span><span class="c-bibliographic-information__value"><time datetime="2018-05-30">30 May 2018</time></span></p></li><li class="c-bibliographic-information__list-item"><p>Revised<span class="u-hide">: </span><span class="c-bibliographic-information__value"><time datetime="2018-09-12">12 September 2018</time></span></p></li><li class="c-bibliographic-information__list-item"><p>Accepted<span class="u-hide">: </span><span class="c-bibliographic-information__value"><time datetime="2018-09-24">24 September 2018</time></span></p></li><li class="c-bibliographic-information__list-item"><p>Published<span class="u-hide">: </span><span class="c-bibliographic-information__value"><time datetime="2018-10-17">17 October 2018</time></span></p></li><li class="c-bibliographic-information__list-item c-bibliographic-information__list-item--full-width"><p><abbr title="Digital Object Identifier">DOI</abbr><span class="u-hide">: </span><span class="c-bibliographic-information__value">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0048-2</span></p></li></ul><div data-component="share-box"><div class="c-article-share-box u-display-none" hidden=""><h3 class="c-article__sub-heading">Share this article</h3><p class="c-article-share-box__description">Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:</p><button class="js-get-share-url c-article-share-box__button" type="button" id="get-share-url" data-track="click" data-track-label="button" data-track-external="" data-track-action="get shareable link">Get shareable link</button><div class="js-no-share-url-container u-display-none" hidden=""><p class="js-c-article-share-box__no-sharelink-info c-article-share-box__no-sharelink-info">Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.</p></div><div class="js-share-url-container u-display-none" hidden=""><p class="js-share-url c-article-share-box__only-read-input" id="share-url" data-track="click" data-track-label="button" data-track-action="select share url"></p><button class="js-copy-share-url c-article-share-box__button--link-like" type="button" id="copy-share-url" data-track="click" data-track-label="button" data-track-action="copy share url" data-track-external="">Copy to clipboard</button></div><p class="js-c-article-share-box__additional-info c-article-share-box__additional-info"> Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative </p></div></div><div data-component="article-info-list"></div></div></div></div></div></section> </div> <section> <div class="c-article-section js-article-section" id="further-reading-section" data-test="further-reading-section"> <h2 class="c-article-section__title js-section-title js-c-reading-companion-sections-item" id="further-reading">This article is cited by</h2> <div class="c-article-section__content js-collapsible-section" id="further-reading-content"> <ul class="c-article-further-reading__list" id="further-reading-list"> <li class="c-article-further-reading__item js-ref-item"> <h3 class="c-article-further-reading__title" data-test="article-title"> <a class="print-link" data-track="click" data-track-action="view further reading article" data-track-label="link:Classifying synoptic patterns driving tornadic storms and associated spatial trends in the United States" href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00897-1"> Classifying synoptic patterns driving tornadic storms and associated spatial trends in the United States </a> </h3> <ul data-test="author-list" class="c-author-list c-author-list--compact c-author-list--truncated u-sans-serif u-mb-4 u-mt-auto"> <li>Qin Jiang</li><li>Daniel T. 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Trapp</li><li>Zhuo Wang</li> </ul> <p class="c-article-further-reading__journal-title"><i>npj Climate and Atmospheric Science</i> (2024)</p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </section> </div> </article> </main> <aside class="c-article-extras u-hide-print" aria-label="Article navigation" data-component-reading-companion data-container-type="reading-companion" data-track-component="reading companion"> <div class="js-context-bar-sticky-point-desktop" data-track-context="reading companion"> <div class="c-pdf-download u-clear-both js-pdf-download"> <a href="/articles/s41612-018-0048-2.pdf" class="u-button u-button--full-width u-button--primary u-justify-content-space-between c-pdf-download__link" data-article-pdf="true" data-readcube-pdf-url="true" data-test="download-pdf" data-draft-ignore="true" data-track="content_download" data-track-type="article pdf download" data-track-action="download pdf" data-track-label="link" data-track-external download> <span class="c-pdf-download__text">Download PDF</span> <svg aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" width="16" height="16" class="u-icon"><use xlink:href="#icon-download"/></svg> </a> </div> </div> <div class="c-article-editorial-summary__container u-mb-16" data-component-show-more="true" id="editorial-summary"><section><h2 class="c-article-editorial-summary__title u-h3 u-mb-16">Editorial Summary</h2><h3 class="c-article-editorial-summary__article-title u-mb-8">ATMOSPHERIC HAZARDS: understanding tornado trends</h3><div class="c-article-editorial-summary__content c-article-editorial-summary__content--less"><p>While the number of tornadoes has remained fairly static in the United States over the past 40 years, strong geographic contrasts are apparent. Tornadoes have the potential to cause severe damage, yet understanding their changes in time—particularly the impact of anthropogenic warming—has been hampered by sparse observations. Vittorio Gensini and Harold Brooks, from Northern Illinois University and the National Severe Storms Laboratory, respectively, therefore use a proxy of tornado activity—the significant tornado parameter, STP—to investigate regional trends since 1979. Tornado counts have increased in the Southeast, Midwest, and Northeast, as represented by a robust upward trend in the STP. In the southern Great Plains, by contrast, negative trends are apparent. 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Spatial trends in United States tornado frequency | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science