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class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/ezra-greenberg" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_8032924 mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_8032924"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924">Ezra Greenberg</span></a> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/erik-schaefer" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_8032924 mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_8032924"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924">Erik Schaefer</span></a><span> </span></span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/brooke-weddle" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_8032924 mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_8032924"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924">Brooke Weddle</span></a></span></span></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11 ArticleContent_mck-c-article-content__share-tools__kWRRw"></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_8032924 mdc-u-ts-5"><div class="mck-u-links-inline">US manufacturing and construction face a hiring crunch for skilled workers such as carpenters, electricians, welders, and plumbers. A few creative actions can help overcome gaps and boost performance.</div></div></div></section><main data-layer-region="article-body" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div class="mdc-o-content-body mck-u-dropcap"> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__iFmyt mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-layer-region="downloads-right-rail"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_8032924 mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_8032924"></h3><div><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_8032924"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="#/download/%2F~%2Fmedia%2Fmckinsey%2Fbusiness%20functions%2Fpeople%20and%20organizational%20performance%2Four%20insights%2Ftradespeople%20wanted%20the%20need%20for%20critical%20trade%20skills%20in%20the%20us%2Ftradespeople-wanted-the-need-for-critical-trade-skills-in-the-us.pdf%3FshouldIndex%3Dfalse" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_8032924" target="_self" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="tradespeople-wanted-the-need-for-critical-trade-skills-in-the-us" data-layer-report-name="tradespeople-wanted-the-need-for-critical-trade-skills-in-the-us>"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_8032924 mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924"> (9 pages)</span></a></div></div></div></div> <p><strong>The US skilled labor market</strong> is facing record-high pressure, particularly for companies with manufacturing and construction operations. Increasing labor scarcity, amplified by the COVID-19 disruptions, has intensified competition for talent, raising the sectors’ average wages by more than 20 percent since the first quarter of 2020.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="a5e722a0-a0ba-49bb-99ff-d02c068a0c40"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">1</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="a5e722a0-a0ba-49bb-99ff-d02c068a0c40" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“Economic news release: Employment situation: Table B-8,” US Bureau of Labor Statistics, updated April 5, 2024; comparison between March 2020 and March 2024; data for March 2024 is preliminary.</span></span></span></a></span> Since money wages have rarely, if ever, fallen in the United States, this cost reset is effectively permanent, threatening margins and long-term growth. And this squeeze on labor is set to get worse as demographic headwinds intensify.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" data-module-gradient-position="bottom-right" class="mck-c-inline-module-container SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__bgimg-wrapper__Qj4Dt mck-o-sm-left-span SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper__Dpjw2 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper--istablet__IQ6ii mck-u-screen-only mck-c-module-wrapper" data-layer-region="sidebar"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__epoAm mck-o-md-center"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons-wrapper__9gB_c"><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_8032924 mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_8032924 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons___eQy6"><div data-component="mdc-c-dropdown-menu" class="mdc-c-drop-down"><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_8032924 mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium mdc-c-drop-down__rootmenu___yJzvz_8032924" aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mdc-c-icon--default___f-hQM_8032924 mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_8032924 mck-share2-icon"></span></button><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="white" data-module-category="" class=""></div></div><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="Expandable Sidebar" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_8032924 mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__toggle-btn__EL8iE" aria-expanded="false" data-layer-event-prefix="UI Item" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="sidebar" data-layer-subcategory="open" data-layer-text="open sidebar"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mdc-c-icon--radial___y3csX_8032924 mdc-c-icon--size-xxl___cL3ZT_8032924 mck-plus-no-circle-icon"></span></button></div></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-outer__UdWCq"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__eyebrow__5GSEq"></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content__raEwe"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-u-ts-3 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-heading__NJekY"><div>Our methodology</div></h2><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-description__4p9iI mdc-u-ts-7"><div class="mdc-o-content-body"><p><strong>Our analysis</strong> is grounded in the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Occupational Outlook Handbook calculations and projections of current and future occupational employment from the latest dates available (2022–32). Skilled-trades roles were selected based on frequent migration to other jobs or significant portions of the workforce entering retirement, along with extensive barriers to entry, slow career progression, and criticality to the advancement of public and private infrastructure (including clean-energy projects and advanced manufacturing).</p> <p>Comparing the most recent BLS net new job growth of skilled roles between 2022 and 2032 with the average annual job openings, there is an imbalance of 20 job openings for every one net new employee. In other words, for the 26,000 net new employees that are projected to fill these 12 roles, there will be an estimated 584,000 annual openings. For most roles, the number of program completions lags substantially behind the number of job openings (for example, construction laborers and helpers show 3,400 program completions versus 151,000 projected annual openings).</p> <p>On average, many of these roles require approximately three years of apprenticeship, which can create extensive training demands, reduce wages for longer periods of time, and result in skills mismatches in rapidly evolving industries, such as wind and solar-energy infrastructure. These dynamics are exacerbated by the significant number of retirements and steep turnover rates—often much higher than the national separation rate of 3.5 percent.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="7d1cd8ee-7587-406b-80b3-ffd9eebaf5f6"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">1</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="7d1cd8ee-7587-406b-80b3-ffd9eebaf5f6" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“Job openings and labor turnover—February 2024,” US Bureau of Labor Statistics news release, April 2, 2024.</span></span></span></a></span> Valuable knowledge is being lost, hampering the training and development of new colleagues.</p> <p>Finally, technical roles have long suffered from stark underrepresentation of women, whose share of the skilled-trades workforce remains in the single digits, and persons of color, whose share generally lags behind the average of about 40 percent (exhibit). This lack of diversity could further inhibit overall skilled-workforce growth.</p>  <h4>Job flow definitions and calculations</h4> <p>The following outlines the key categories used to estimate and analyze workforce dynamics and trends:</p> <ul> <li><em>job keepers</em>: BLS estimated 2032 total jobs, minus BLS estimated annual job openings for the next decade, multiplied by ten years</li> <li><em>net new jobs</em>: BLS annual occupational growth for the next decade, multiplied by ten years</li> <li><em>retirement</em>: number of workers currently aged 55 and over, sourced from Lightcast 2023 occupational reports</li> <li><em>estimated job churn</em>: new hires minus net new jobs and estimated retirements</li> </ul> <p>The distinction between retirements and job churn is an estimate based on the typical retirement age of 61 in these roles.</p> <h4>Acquisition cost calculation</h4> <p>The $5.3 billion acquisition cost, influenced by the anticipated turnover rate, is calculated by multiplying the projected BLS job openings for each role over the next decade with the Society of Human Resource Management’s estimated median cost-per-hire acquisition and industry benchmark training costs for manufacturing and construction firms.</p></div></div></div></div></div></div> <p>To understand the scope of the problem and identify potential countermeasures, we looked at several critical skilled roles, including welders, construction laborers, electricians, and other skill categories that are vulnerable to increased churn (see sidebar, “Our methodology”). For these roles, we found that from 2022 to 2032, annual hiring is expected to be more than 20 times the projected annual increase in net new jobs (Exhibit 1). This extraordinary rate of churn could cost companies more than $5.3 billion every year in talent acquisition and training costs alone.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="0e44ec45-c14c-4ef8-9676-5028038e938f"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">2</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="0e44ec45-c14c-4ef8-9676-5028038e938f" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Calculated using the Society of Human Resource Management (SHRM) 2024 median employee cost-per-hire acquisition cost for manufacturing and construction, projected US Bureau of Labor Statistics openings for each role over the next decade, and industry benchmark training costs for manufacturing and construction companies (see sidebar, “Our methodology”); this calculation excludes additional training costs.</span></span></span></a></span> The additional lost productivity as new talent is brought up to speed could amount to significantly more.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mck-c-content-header"><div class="ContentHeader_mck-c-content-header__eyebrow__cBTe_"></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/people%20and%20organizational%20performance/our%20insights/tradespeople%20wanted%20the%20need%20for%20critical%20trade%20skills%20in%20the%20us/tradespeople_ex1-v2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Annual hiring in the United States for critical skilled roles could be more than 20 times the projected annual increase in net new jobs from 2022 to 2032." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/people%20and%20organizational%20performance/our%20insights/tradespeople%20wanted%20the%20need%20for%20critical%20trade%20skills%20in%20the%20us/tradespeople_ex1-v2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <h2>Reduced supply versus demand</h2> <p>Two important supply-side trends are decreasing the number of skilled laborers in the US workforce: the aging US population and too few younger people entering the trades.</p> <h3>An aging workforce with fewer young replacements</h3>  <p>The aging of the United States is becoming increasingly evident: between 1984 and 2027, the ratio of post-working-age individuals to working-age individuals is projected to rise by about 75 percent, from 2:10 to 3.5:10.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="8e815f97-4fe9-4688-9e8b-ab163c86b87e"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">3</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="8e815f97-4fe9-4688-9e8b-ab163c86b87e" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“Old-age dependency ratio,” OECD, retrieved April 3, 2024.</span></span></span></a></span> <a href="/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/navigating-the-gray-to-green-transition-in-aerospace-and-defense">In some sectors, the impact is already acute</a>.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="67276b20-f8a2-4e70-bfd6-3d0ac8c039e9"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">4</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="67276b20-f8a2-4e70-bfd6-3d0ac8c039e9" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Varun Marya, Michael Park, Andy Voelker, and Brooke Weddle, “<a href="/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/navigating-the-gray-to-green-transition-in-aerospace-and-defense">Navigating the gray-to-green transition in aerospace and defense</a>,” McKinsey, March 16, 2023.</span></span></span></a></span> Since the pandemic, labor force participation rates for people 55 and older have declined by about 2 percent, while for 16- to 24-year-olds, both participation rates and employment population ratios remain below pre-COVID-19 levels.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="76c35bf2-250f-49ce-a71b-9721cd356875"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">5</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="76c35bf2-250f-49ce-a71b-9721cd356875" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“Labor force participation rate for people ages 25 to 54 in May 2023 highest since January 2007,” <em>Economics Daily</em>, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 7, 2023.</span></span></span></a></span></p> <p>Moreover, Gen Z workers report persistent cultural barriers to vocational training. Despite a recent 3 percent rebound in vocational enrollment (up from 2018 levels),<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="458a0dd3-9082-4691-a1d6-b40caffd5bb6"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">6</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="458a0dd3-9082-4691-a1d6-b40caffd5bb6" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“Current term enrollment estimates: Fall 2023: Expanded edition: Figure 4.4,” National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, January 24, 2024.</span></span></span></a></span> a survey of 1,000 US-based 18- to 20-year-olds found that 74 percent perceive a stigma associated with choosing vocational school over a traditional four-year university. An overwhelming 79 percent of respondents said their parents wanted them to pursue a college education after high school, while only 5 percent said the same about vocational school.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="e50264f2-d664-4f26-9674-17c623781d2b"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">7</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="e50264f2-d664-4f26-9674-17c623781d2b" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">According to a 2023 Jobber survey of 1,000 US-based young adults (18–20); for more, see Michelle Thompson, “Trades career stigma continues to dissuade talent from entering field, study shows,” <em>Repairer Driven News</em>, October 30, 2023.</span></span></span></a></span></p> <p>Younger workers’ employment preferences pose an additional challenge. McKinsey recently compared <a href="/capabilities/people-and-organizational-performance/our-insights/gen-what-debunking-age-based-myths-about-worker-preferences">worker attitudes and behaviors</a> across five small, consistently sized age groups: Gen Z (18- to 24-year-olds), younger millennials (25- to 34-year-olds), older millennials (35- to 44-year-olds), Gen X (45- to 54-year-olds), and younger baby boomers (55- to 64-year-olds). We found that when taking a new job, contrary to all other age groups, Gen Z prioritizes career development and advancement potential as their top factors. When deciding to stay in a job, Gen Z, younger millennials, and older millennials prioritize workplace flexibility. The on-site and highly structured nature of construction and manufacturing jobs typically doesn’t map to these preferences.</p> <h3>Skyrocketing demand</h3> <p>Even as worker numbers fall, demand in US industry is projected to remain high due to infrastructure needs, a surge in real estate redevelopment, and the <a href="/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/global-energy-perspective-2023-transition-bottlenecks-and-unlocks">energy transition</a>. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law’s (BIL’s) spending levels and subsequent workforce needs are slated to peak around 2027–28, when new BIL construction expenditure could <a href="/industries/public-sector/our-insights/will-a-labor-crunch-derail-plans-to-upgrade-us-infrastructure">expand job market supply by 345,000 jobs</a>, spanning sectors across the value chain. Construction and manufacturing, specifically, may experience strong competition for entry-level skilled-trades talent.</p> <p>Simultaneously, the repurposing of commercial real estate in response to hybrid work could also increase demand for construction trade workers. In a moderate scenario, we found that in the median city we studied, <a href="/mgi/our-research/empty-spaces-and-hybrid-places">demand for office space in 2030 could be 13 percent lower than it was in 2019.</a> That figure would translate into a reduction in value of 26 percent in our moderate scenario and up to 42 percent in our severe scenario.</p> <p>Yet demand for housing in most of these cities appears unlikely to fall: our modeling instead suggests that it will rise less quickly than it did before 2019, with little improvement in housing affordability. This could mean an opportunity to rebuild offices as residences. To help with the daunting economics of commercial-to-residential conversion, some cities are already creating incentive packages that subsidize some of the costs.</p> <p>As the push toward net zero gains momentum, between now and 2030, <a href="/industries/electric-power-and-natural-gas/our-insights/renewable-energy-development-in-a-net-zero-world-overcoming-talent-gaps">the global renewables industry will need an additional 1.1 million blue-collar workers</a> to develop and construct wind and solar plants and another 1.7 million workers to operate and maintain them. Not only will energy projects require a significant number of skilled-trades workers, but also the skills and capabilities necessary to execute the work will shift, requiring both rapid workforce scale-up and upskilling.</p> <p>As supply declines and demand accelerates, companies are having a harder time finding and retaining skilled-trades labor. Moreover, average weekly earnings for construction and manufacturing roles are 23.5 percent and 20.1 percent, respectively, above pre-COVID-19 levels.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="938a0533-867b-4860-a6be-811f3dddc937"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">8</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="938a0533-867b-4860-a6be-811f3dddc937" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“Economic news release: Employment situation: Table B-8,” US Bureau of Labor Statistics, updated April 5, 2024; comparison between March 2020 and March 2024; data for March 2024 is preliminary.</span></span></span></a></span> With labor both scarcer and more competitive than ever before, the stakes for companies are high.</p> <h3>What fewer workers means for manufacturing and construction</h3> <p>Although the high turnover among skilled-trades labor is evident across many occupations, there are a few critical roles that have an outsize impact on operations and the broader economy. Using US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, we identified critical skilled roles based on three criteria:</p> <ol> <li>frequent migration to other jobs or significant portions of the workforce entering retirement</li> <li>extensive training requirements and consequent slow career progression</li> <li>criticality to the advancement of public and private infrastructure, clean-energy projects, and advanced manufacturing</li> </ol> <p>Several job categories stood out as among the most difficult to fill (Exhibit 2).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mck-c-content-header"><div class="ContentHeader_mck-c-content-header__eyebrow__cBTe_"></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/people%20and%20organizational%20performance/our%20insights/tradespeople%20wanted%20the%20need%20for%20critical%20trade%20skills%20in%20the%20us/tradespeople_ex2-v2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="In critical skilled roles in the United States, only a small percentage of workers will stay in their jobs from 2022 to 2032." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/people%20and%20organizational%20performance/our%20insights/tradespeople%20wanted%20the%20need%20for%20critical%20trade%20skills%20in%20the%20us/tradespeople_ex2-v2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p><em><strong>Construction laborers and helpers. </strong></em>The US construction industry had roughly 374,000 job openings in December 2023. According to a 2023 Associated General Contractors of America survey, 70 percent of respondents are concerned about an insufficient supply of workers or subcontractors, and 80 percent are having a hard time filling some or all positions. The problem is so acute that 83 percent of construction workers themselves list inexperienced workers as the largest safety concern. Persistent challenges in filling vacancies are already delaying projects, hampering quality control, and raising costs—and are likely to worsen as demand for megaprojects accelerates under the BIL.</p> <p><strong><em>Electricians.</em></strong> Critical to both the construction and manufacturing industries, an estimated 30 percent of union electricians are expected to reach retirement age in the next decade. With a typical apprenticeship timeline of four to five years, organizations risk losing “tribal” knowledge, while individuals risk failing to acquire skills that they have few opportunities to use before their experienced colleagues retire. At the same time, rapid technology changes mean that by the time the worker is fully credentialed, some skills may become obsolete. Additionally, 70 percent of supervisors in the electrical industry are baby boomers (according to the National Electrical Contractors Association), implying that experienced frontline leaders could become particularly scarce. Among other risks, this shortage threatens the pace of the energy transition.</p> <p><strong><em>Welders, cutters, solderers, and braziers. </em></strong>A staggering 584,000 job openings bedeviled the US manufacturing industry in January 2024.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="8ef88a1e-5153-4d12-89dc-026b84e13de2"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">9</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="8ef88a1e-5153-4d12-89dc-026b84e13de2" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“Industries at a glance: Manufacturing: NAICS 31-33,” US Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved April 3, 2024.</span></span></span></a></span> Since approximately 70 percent of all manufactured products require the skills of welders and both manufacturing and construction firms compete for the same talent, this shortage has a disproportionate impact as it strains production, introduces quality concerns, hinders economic growth, and lowers productivity. When looking at job flows projected by the BLS over a decade, it is estimated that in approximately ten years, just 2.7 percent of 2022 welder jobs are likely to be considered “job keepers,” a finding attributed to both churn and retirement.</p> <h2>Plugging leaks in the talent pipeline</h2> <p>Tackling these workforce challenges will likely need to involve collective action across private, public, and social sectors. The organizations that have been most successful at securing required skills have shifted from reactive, siloed, and inward-facing approaches toward more open and transparent forecasting, including the sharing of data with new partners.</p> <h3>Regional solutions to fill talent pools</h3> <p>A few regions are leading the charge in addressing vast hiring needs. A workforce development council in the eastern United States positioned itself as the single source of truth on the skilled-trades gap in its region. The council brought together employers, educators, and government to work together in new, data-driven ways to increase the ROI of talent supply initiatives. By studying the historical ROI of its workforce investments and rebalancing its portfolio toward those that had performed the best, the council is now on a path to increase skilled-trades job placements by more than one-third over the previous year, with the same level of funding.</p> <p>Solutions developed for other sectors can also be adapted to skilled trades. A multistate region seeking to fill tech job openings brought together employers, educators, and other stakeholders to align talent strategies with economic planning and tailor offerings to what tech talent wants (such as “expert” career paths with no people management obligations). One result was an “employer signaling system” combining labor market information, employer insights, and feedback from schools to help participants better understand demand signals.</p> <h3>Companies taking action on skilled-trades talent</h3> <p>At the same time, there are steps individual companies can take to reduce churn in their own skilled-trades roles—and <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/2024-and-beyond-will-it-be-economic-stagnation-or-the-advent-of-productivity-driven-abundance">boost productivity</a> as well. The two goals are intertwined. Productivity can rise when organizations transform their <a href="/capabilities/operations/our-insights/todays-good-to-great-next-generation-operational-excellence">talent and operating model</a>, invest in capital and technology, and manage economic headwinds, such as inflation and interest rate pressures (Exhibit 3). The overlaps among these broad areas of focus yield greater operating effectiveness, improved capital strength, and higher growth, which collectively accelerate improvement across the enterprise.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mck-c-content-header"><div class="ContentHeader_mck-c-content-header__eyebrow__cBTe_"></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/people%20and%20organizational%20performance/our%20insights/tradespeople%20wanted%20the%20need%20for%20critical%20trade%20skills%20in%20the%20us/tradespeople_ex3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Upskilling talent is critical to raising productivity." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/people%20and%20organizational%20performance/our%20insights/tradespeople%20wanted%20the%20need%20for%20critical%20trade%20skills%20in%20the%20us/tradespeople_ex3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Several manufacturing and construction companies illustrate how leaders can address job friction while boosting productivity.</p> <p>An <em>engineering company</em> working on a high-profile project took particular care in planning for its workforce needs. By offering attractive sign-on bonuses and relocation packages, it was able to secure scarce skilled workers, including welders and electricians, and keep the project on target for on-time completion.</p> <p>A <em>heavy-equipment manufacturer</em> uses cobots alongside human workers to automate repetitive tasks and free up employees for more complex and analytical work. The use of cobots has enhanced productivity by 40 percent and improved resource utilization by 50 percent.</p> <p>An <em>electronics manufacturer</em> has used digital twins and remote control technologies to enable technicians to operate and debug factory equipment from anywhere in the world. The resulting increased flexibility has reduced vacancies by 25 percent and nearly doubled productivity.</p> <hr/> <p>High turnover in the skilled trades poses a serious challenge to the US economy—but also an incredible opportunity. Addressing attrition in critical skilled roles could encourage leaders in the manufacturing and construction industries to think differently about how they invest in human capital and re-excite the next generation on the value of skilled trades. In the short term, with labor increasingly scarce and expensive, productivity is the answer to prosperity.</p></div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xl"><section role="contentinfo" data-layer-region="article-about-authors" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-xs-12 mck-c-enhanced-author"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-xs-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-xs-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_8032924 mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_8032924 mdc-u-align-center"></h2><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-xs-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-2 mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-mt-5"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-xs-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-xs-span-4"><div data-component="mdc-c-avatar" class="mdc-c-avatar-enhanced-author-0 mdc-c-avatar___kVSTP_8032924 mdc-c-avatar--image___levct_8032924 mdc-c-avatar--size-4"><style> 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DC</span><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_8032924 mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_8032924 mdc-u-mt-2 EnhancedAuthor_mck-c-enhanced-author__social-link-container__zAs9x mdc-u-grid-gutter-md"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/brooke-weddle/" class="mdc-c-link___lBbY1_8032924 mdc-c-link--secondary___TSFam_8032924" aria-label="LinkedIn profile for Brooke Weddle"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_8032924 mck-linkedin-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924">LinkedIn</span></a><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="Brooke_Weddle@mckinsey.com" class="mdc-c-link___lBbY1_8032924 mdc-c-link--secondary___TSFam_8032924" aria-label="Email to Brooke Weddle"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mdc-c-icon--default___f-hQM_8032924 mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_8032924 mck-email-icon"></span><span 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class="picture-uniqueKey-genw-0" src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/people%20and%20organizational%20performance/our%20insights/gen%20what%20debunking%20age%20based%20myths%20about%20worker%20preferences/gen-what-1084168324-thumb-1536x1536.jpg?cq=50&mw=767&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></a></div><div class="Card_wrapper-text__U6Y3k"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_8032924 Card_content-block__pF6Z1"><span>Article</span><h6 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-u-ts-6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/capabilities/people-and-organizational-performance/our-insights/gen-what-debunking-age-based-myths-about-worker-preferences" class="mdc-c-link-heading___Zggl8_8032924 mdc-c-link___lBbY1_8032924"><div>Gen what? Debunking age-based myths about worker preferences</div></a></h6></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg Card_card__diA2r Card_hover-effect__RGb9b"><div class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/mgi/our-research/an-approach-to-boosting-us-labor-productivity" class="mdc-c-link___lBbY1_8032924"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><style>.picture-uniqueKey-anap-0 { aspect-ratio: 16/9 }</style><img alt="Bent arrow pointing upwards" class="picture-uniqueKey-anap-0" src="/~/media/mckinsey/mckinsey%20global%20institute/our%20research/an%20approach%20to%20boosting%20us%20labor%20productivity/an%20approach%20to%20boosting%20us%20labor%20productivity-1046679686-thumb-1536x1536.jpg?cq=50&mw=767&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></a></div><div class="Card_wrapper-text__U6Y3k"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_8032924 Card_content-block__pF6Z1"><span>Interview - <i>MGI Research</i></span><h6 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-u-ts-6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/mgi/our-research/an-approach-to-boosting-us-labor-productivity" class="mdc-c-link-heading___Zggl8_8032924 mdc-c-link___lBbY1_8032924"><div>An approach to boosting US labor productivity</div></a></h6></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></main></div><script id="__NEXT_DATA__" type="application/json">{"props":{"pageProps":{"locale":"en","dictionary":{},"sitecoreContext":{"route":{"name":"Tradespeople wanted The need for critical trade skills in the US","displayName":"Tradespeople wanted The need for critical trade skills in the US","fields":null,"databaseName":"web","deviceId":"fe5d7fdf-89c0-4d99-9aa3-b5fbd009c9f3","itemId":"3cfaa3e6-23f4-403b-a9d9-cff13adaafa2","itemLanguage":"en","itemVersion":2,"layoutId":"ae753eb4-a035-40b4-83bf-4b4438df6742","templateId":"683910db-02ba-40ba-92e7-726c880160a9","templateName":"ArticleJSS","placeholders":{"jss-main":[{"uid":"232bb7e9-289f-492d-a916-2b6185e44a84","componentName":"ArticleTemplate","dataSource":"","fields":{"data":{"articleTemplate":{"title":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Tradespeople wanted: The need for critical trade skills in the US"}},"sEOTitle":{"value":"The critical demand for trade skills in the US"},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"US manufacturing and construction face a hiring crunch for skilled workers such as carpenters, electricians, welders, and plumbers. A few creative actions can help overcome gaps and boost performance."}},"sEODescription":{"value":"US manufacturing and construction face a hiring crunch for skilled workers. We look at how companies can meet this growing demand when it comes to trade skills."},"displayDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2024-04-09T00:00:00Z"}},"body":{"value":"[[Audio 1]] [[DownloadsSidebar]]\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe US skilled labor market\u003c/strong\u003e is facing record-high pressure, particularly for companies with manufacturing and construction operations. Increasing labor scarcity, amplified by the COVID-19 disruptions, has intensified competition for talent, raising the sectors\u0026rsquo; average wages by more than 20 percent since the first quarter of 2020.[[footnote 1]] Since money wages have rarely, if ever, fallen in the United States, this cost reset is effectively permanent, threatening margins and long-term growth. And this squeeze on labor is set to get worse as demographic headwinds intensify.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[sidebar 1]]\n\u003cp\u003eTo understand the scope of the problem and identify potential countermeasures, we looked at several critical skilled roles, including welders, construction laborers, electricians, and other skill categories that are vulnerable to increased churn (see sidebar, \u0026ldquo;Our methodology\u0026rdquo;). For these roles, we found that from 2022 to 2032, annual hiring is expected to be more than 20 times the projected annual increase in net new jobs (Exhibit 1). This extraordinary rate of churn could cost companies more than $5.3 billion every year in talent acquisition and training costs alone.[[footnote 2]] The additional lost productivity as new talent is brought up to speed could amount to significantly more.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[exhibit 1]]\n\u003ch2\u003eReduced supply versus demand\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTwo important supply-side trends are decreasing the number of skilled laborers in the US workforce: the aging US population and too few younger people entering the trades.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eAn aging workforce with fewer young replacements\u003c/h3\u003e\n[[MostPopularArticles 5]]\n\u003cp\u003eThe aging of the United States is becoming increasingly evident: between 1984 and 2027, the ratio of post-working-age individuals to working-age individuals is projected to rise by about 75 percent, from 2:10 to 3.5:10.[[footnote 3]]\u0026nbsp;\u003ca href=\"/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/navigating-the-gray-to-green-transition-in-aerospace-and-defense\"\u003eIn some sectors, the impact is already acute\u003c/a\u003e.[[footnote 4]] Since the pandemic, labor force participation rates for people 55 and older have declined by about 2 percent, while for 16- to 24-year-olds, both participation rates and employment population ratios remain below pre-COVID-19 levels.[[footnote 5]]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMoreover, Gen Z workers report persistent cultural barriers to vocational training. Despite a recent 3 percent rebound in vocational enrollment (up from 2018 levels),[[footnote 6]] a survey of 1,000 US-based 18- to 20-year-olds found that 74 percent perceive a stigma associated with choosing vocational school over a traditional four-year university. An overwhelming 79 percent of respondents said their parents wanted them to pursue a college education after high school, while only 5 percent said the same about vocational school.[[footnote 7]]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eYounger workers\u0026rsquo; employment preferences pose an additional challenge. McKinsey recently compared \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/people-and-organizational-performance/our-insights/gen-what-debunking-age-based-myths-about-worker-preferences\"\u003eworker attitudes and behaviors\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;across five small, consistently sized age groups: Gen Z (18- to 24-year-olds), younger millennials (25- to 34-year-olds), older millennials (35- to 44-year-olds), Gen X (45- to 54-year-olds), and younger baby boomers (55- to 64-year-olds). We found that when taking a new job, contrary to all other age groups, Gen Z prioritizes career development and advancement potential as their top factors. When deciding to stay in a job, Gen Z, younger millennials, and older millennials prioritize workplace flexibility. The on-site and highly structured nature of construction and manufacturing jobs typically doesn\u0026rsquo;t map to these preferences.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eSkyrocketing demand\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEven as worker numbers fall, demand in US industry is projected to remain high due to infrastructure needs, a surge in real estate redevelopment, and the \u003ca href=\"/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/global-energy-perspective-2023-transition-bottlenecks-and-unlocks\"\u003eenergy transition\u003c/a\u003e. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law\u0026rsquo;s (BIL\u0026rsquo;s) spending levels and subsequent workforce needs are slated to peak around 2027\u0026ndash;28, when new BIL construction expenditure could \u003ca href=\"/industries/public-sector/our-insights/will-a-labor-crunch-derail-plans-to-upgrade-us-infrastructure\"\u003eexpand job market supply by 345,000 jobs\u003c/a\u003e, spanning sectors across the value chain. Construction and manufacturing, specifically, may experience strong competition for entry-level skilled-trades talent.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSimultaneously, the repurposing of commercial real estate in response to hybrid work could also increase demand for construction trade workers. In a moderate scenario, we found that in the median city we studied, \u003ca href=\"/mgi/our-research/empty-spaces-and-hybrid-places\"\u003edemand for office space in 2030 could be 13 percent lower than it was in 2019.\u003c/a\u003e That figure would translate into a reduction in value of 26 percent in our moderate scenario and up to 42 percent in our severe scenario.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eYet demand for housing in most of these cities appears unlikely to fall: our modeling instead suggests that it will rise less quickly than it did before 2019, with little improvement in housing affordability. This could mean an opportunity to rebuild offices as residences. To help with the daunting economics of commercial-to-residential conversion, some cities are already creating incentive packages that subsidize some of the costs.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAs the push toward net zero gains momentum, between now and 2030, \u003ca href=\"/industries/electric-power-and-natural-gas/our-insights/renewable-energy-development-in-a-net-zero-world-overcoming-talent-gaps\"\u003ethe global renewables industry will need an additional 1.1 million blue-collar workers\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp; to develop and construct wind and solar plants and another 1.7 million workers to operate and maintain them. Not only will energy projects require a significant number of skilled-trades workers, but also the skills and capabilities necessary to execute the work will shift, requiring both rapid workforce scale-up and upskilling.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAs supply declines and demand accelerates, companies are having a harder time finding and retaining skilled-trades labor. Moreover, average weekly earnings for construction and manufacturing roles are 23.5 percent and 20.1 percent, respectively, above pre-COVID-19 levels.[[footnote 8]] With labor both scarcer and more competitive than ever before, the stakes for companies are high.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eWhat fewer workers means for manufacturing and construction\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAlthough the high turnover among skilled-trades labor is evident across many occupations, there are a few critical roles that have an outsize impact on operations and the broader economy. Using US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, we identified critical skilled roles based on three criteria:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003efrequent migration to other jobs or significant portions of the workforce entering retirement\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eextensive training requirements and consequent slow career progression\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003ecriticality to the advancement of public and private infrastructure, clean-energy projects, and advanced manufacturing\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSeveral job categories stood out as among the most difficult to fill (Exhibit 2).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[exhibit 2]]\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConstruction laborers and helpers. \u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/em\u003eThe US construction industry had roughly 374,000 job openings in December 2023. According to a 2023 Associated General Contractors of America survey, 70 percent of respondents are concerned about an insufficient supply of workers or subcontractors, and 80 percent are having a hard time filling some or all positions. The problem is so acute that 83 percent of construction workers themselves list inexperienced workers as the largest safety concern. Persistent challenges in filling vacancies are already delaying projects, hampering quality control, and raising costs\u0026mdash;and are likely to worsen as demand for megaprojects accelerates under the BIL.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cem\u003eElectricians.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e Critical to both the construction and manufacturing industries, an estimated 30 percent of union electricians are expected to reach retirement age in the next decade. With a typical apprenticeship timeline of four to five years, organizations risk losing \u0026ldquo;tribal\u0026rdquo; knowledge, while individuals risk failing to acquire skills that they have few opportunities to use before their experienced colleagues retire. At the same time, rapid technology changes mean that by the time the worker is fully credentialed, some skills may become obsolete. Additionally, 70 percent of supervisors in the electrical industry are baby boomers (according to the National Electrical Contractors Association), implying that experienced frontline leaders could become particularly scarce. Among other risks, this shortage threatens the pace of the energy transition.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cem\u003eWelders, cutters, solderers, and braziers. \u003c/em\u003e\u003c/strong\u003eA staggering 584,000 job openings bedeviled the US manufacturing industry in January 2024.[[footnote 9]] Since approximately 70 percent of all manufactured products require the skills of welders and both manufacturing and construction firms compete for the same talent, this shortage has a disproportionate impact as it strains production, introduces quality concerns, hinders economic growth, and lowers productivity. When looking at job flows projected by the BLS over a decade, it is estimated that in approximately ten years, just 2.7 percent of 2022 welder jobs are likely to be considered \u0026ldquo;job keepers,\u0026rdquo; a finding attributed to both churn and retirement.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003ePlugging leaks in the talent pipeline\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTackling these workforce challenges will likely need to involve collective action across private, public, and social sectors. The organizations that have been most successful at securing required skills have shifted from reactive, siloed, and inward-facing approaches toward more open and transparent forecasting, including the sharing of data with new partners.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eRegional solutions to fill talent pools\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA few regions are leading the charge in addressing vast hiring needs. A workforce development council in the eastern United States positioned itself as the single source of truth on the skilled-trades gap in its region. The council brought together employers, educators, and government to work together in new, data-driven ways to increase the ROI of talent supply initiatives. By studying the historical ROI of its workforce investments and rebalancing its portfolio toward those that had performed the best, the council is now on a path to increase skilled-trades job placements by more than one-third over the previous year, with the same level of funding.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSolutions developed for other sectors can also be adapted to skilled trades. A multistate region seeking to fill tech job openings brought together employers, educators, and other stakeholders to align talent strategies with economic planning and tailor offerings to what tech talent wants (such as \u0026ldquo;expert\u0026rdquo; career paths with no people management obligations). One result was an \u0026ldquo;employer signaling system\u0026rdquo; combining labor market information, employer insights, and feedback from schools to help participants better understand demand signals.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eCompanies taking action on skilled-trades talent\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAt the same time, there are steps individual companies can take to reduce churn in their own skilled-trades roles\u0026mdash;and \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/2024-and-beyond-will-it-be-economic-stagnation-or-the-advent-of-productivity-driven-abundance\"\u003eboost productivity\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;as well. The two goals are intertwined. Productivity can rise when organizations transform their \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/operations/our-insights/todays-good-to-great-next-generation-operational-excellence\"\u003etalent and operating model\u003c/a\u003e, invest in capital and technology, and manage economic headwinds, such as inflation and interest rate pressures (Exhibit 3). The overlaps among these broad areas of focus yield greater operating effectiveness, improved capital strength, and higher growth, which collectively accelerate improvement across the enterprise.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[exhibit 3]]\n\u003cp\u003eSeveral manufacturing and construction companies illustrate how leaders can address job friction while boosting productivity.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAn \u003cem\u003eengineering company\u003c/em\u003e working on a high-profile project took particular care in planning for its workforce needs. By offering attractive sign-on bonuses and relocation packages, it was able to secure scarce skilled workers, including welders and electricians, and keep the project on target for on-time completion.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA \u003cem\u003eheavy-equipment manufacturer\u003c/em\u003e uses cobots alongside human workers to automate repetitive tasks and free up employees for more complex and analytical work. The use of cobots has enhanced productivity by 40 percent and improved resource utilization by 50 percent.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAn \u003cem\u003eelectronics manufacturer\u003c/em\u003e has used digital twins and remote control technologies to enable technicians to operate and debug factory equipment from anywhere in the world. The resulting increased flexibility has reduced vacancies by 25 percent and nearly doubled productivity.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHigh turnover in the skilled trades poses a serious challenge to the US economy\u0026mdash;but also an incredible opportunity. Addressing attrition in critical skilled roles could encourage leaders in the manufacturing and construction industries to think differently about how they invest in human capital and re-excite the next generation on the value of skilled trades. In the short term, with labor increasingly scarce and expensive, productivity is the answer to prosperity.\u003c/p\u003e"},"isFullScreenInteractive":{"boolValue":false},"hideStickySocialShareBar":{"boolValue":false},"desktopID":{"value":""},"mobileID":{"value":""},"desktopURL":{"value":""},"mobileURL":{"value":""},"desktopPaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"mobilePaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"desktopOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"mobileOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"cerosOembedURL":{"value":""},"cerosRenderMode":{"targetItem":null},"cerosBackgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"hideByLine":{"boolValue":false},"tableOfContentsTitle":{"value":"TABLE OF CONTENTS"},"accessStatus":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"RegisteredUsers"},"value":{"value":"Registered Users"}}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"hasSpecialReport":{"boolValue":false},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"externalPublication":{"value":""},"excludeFromClientLink":{"boolValue":false},"originalPublishDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2024-04-09T00:00:00Z"}},"footnotes":{"value":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;Economic news release: Employment situation: Table B-8,\u0026rdquo; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, updated April 5, 2024; comparison between March 2020 and March 2024; data for March 2024 is preliminary.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eCalculated using the Society of Human Resource Management (SHRM) 2024 median employee cost-per-hire acquisition cost for manufacturing and construction, projected US Bureau of Labor Statistics openings for each role over the next decade, and industry benchmark training costs for manufacturing and construction companies (see sidebar, \u0026ldquo;Our methodology\u0026rdquo;); this calculation excludes additional training costs.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;Old-age dependency ratio,\u0026rdquo; OECD, retrieved April 3, 2024.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eVarun Marya, Michael Park, Andy Voelker, and Brooke Weddle, \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/navigating-the-gray-to-green-transition-in-aerospace-and-defense\"\u003eNavigating the gray-to-green transition in aerospace and defense\u003c/a\u003e,\u0026rdquo; McKinsey, March 16, 2023.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;Labor force participation rate for people ages 25 to 54 in May 2023 highest since January 2007,\u0026rdquo; \u003cem\u003eEconomics Daily\u003c/em\u003e, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 7, 2023.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;Current term enrollment estimates: Fall 2023: Expanded edition: Figure 4.4,\u0026rdquo; National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, January 24, 2024.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eAccording to a 2023 Jobber survey of 1,000 US-based young adults (18\u0026ndash;20); for more, see Michelle Thompson, \u0026ldquo;Trades career stigma continues to dissuade talent from entering field, study shows,\u0026rdquo; \u003cem\u003eRepairer Driven News\u003c/em\u003e, October 30, 2023.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;Economic news release: Employment situation: Table B-8,\u0026rdquo; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, updated April 5, 2024; comparison between March 2020 and March 2024; data for March 2024 is preliminary.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;Industries at a glance: Manufacturing: NAICS 31-33,\u0026rdquo; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved April 3, 2024.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},"contributoryPractice":{"targetItems":[{"displayName":"People \u0026amp; Organizational Performance"},{"displayName":"Aerospace \u0026 Defense"}]},"aboutTheAuthors":{"value":""},"authors":{"targetItems":[{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"AFB0E2B47B514099B6930BAB84902CDE","name":"Ezra Greenberg","authorTitle":{"value":"Ezra Greenberg"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[{"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/ezra greenberg/ezra_greenberg_fc_mask_profile_1536x1152.jpg","alt":"Ezra Greenberg"},"emailLinks":{"value":"Ezra_Greenberg@mckinsey.com"},"linkedInUrl":{"value":"https://www.linkedin.com/in/ezra-greenberg-360b3"},"description":{"value":"Advises executives and investors in multiple sectors on how macro forces and global trends impact critical strategy and investment decisions with a focus on engineering, construction, and building materials"},"locations":{"targetItems":[{"name":"Connecticut","displayName":"Connecticut – Darien"}]},"firmTitle":{"value":"Partner"},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":" Ezra Greenberg","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/ezra greenberg/ezra_greenberg_fc-mask_headshot_988x741.jpg"},"url":{"path":"/our-people/ezra-greenberg"}}]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"038D3B23ECD046F195A5A18E0FCB5E92","name":"Erik Schaefer","authorTitle":{"value":"Erik Schaefer"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[{"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/erik schaefer/erik-schaefer_profile_1536x1152.jpg","alt":"Erik Schaefer"},"emailLinks":{"value":" Erik_Schaefer@mckinsey.com"},"linkedInUrl":{"value":"https://www.linkedin.com/in/erik-schaefer-18bb8/"},"description":{"value":"Focuses on rapidly and sustainably delivering radical performance and health improvements for heavy industrial assets, with an emphasis on metals and mining "},"locations":{"targetItems":[{"name":"Toronto","displayName":"Toronto"}]},"firmTitle":{"value":"Partner"},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"Erik Schaefer","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/erik schaefer/erik-schaefer_headshot_988x741.jpg"},"url":{"path":"/our-people/erik-schaefer"}}]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"7CB6135C064E4C01BCEBBE81DBBE07A7","name":"Brooke Weddle","authorTitle":{"value":"Brooke Weddle"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[{"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/brooke weddle/brooke_profile_1536x1152.jpg","alt":"Brooke Weddle"},"emailLinks":{"value":"Brooke_Weddle@mckinsey.com"},"linkedInUrl":{"value":"https://www.linkedin.com/in/brooke-weddle/"},"description":{"value":"Drives lasting change at scale for global organizations through digital transformation, operating-model redesign, enterprise agility, and leadership development"},"locations":{"targetItems":[{"name":"Washington DC","displayName":"Washington DC"}]},"firmTitle":{"value":"Senior Partner"},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"Brooke Weddle","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/brooke weddle/brooke_headshot_988x741.jpg"},"url":{"path":"/our-people/brooke-weddle"}}]}}]},"nonPartnerAuthors":{"targetItems":[]},"interactiveToUse":{"targetItem":null},"enableArticleComponents":{"boolValue":false},"relatedArticles":{"targetItems":[{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":{"name":"MGI Research"}},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"Rekindling US productivity for a new era"},"url":{"path":"/mgi/our-research/rekindling-us-productivity-for-a-new-era"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Report"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Report"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"Regaining historical rates of productivity growth would add $10 trillion to US GDP\u0026mdash;a boost needed to confront workforce shortages, debt, inflation, and the energy transition."},"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/mckinsey global institute/our research/rekindling us productivity for a new era/rekindling-1423028926-standard-1536x1536.jpg","alt":"Two production operators with tablet in factory shop floor"},"heroImage":null,"thumbnailImage":null},{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"Gen what? Debunking age-based myths about worker preferences"},"url":{"path":"/capabilities/people-and-organizational-performance/our-insights/gen-what-debunking-age-based-myths-about-worker-preferences"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"Our latest analysis of talent trends suggests that employees of all ages seem to want the same things from their work experience\u0026mdash;with a few important caveats."},"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/people and organizational performance/our insights/gen what debunking age based myths about worker preferences/gen-what-1084168324-thumb-1536x1536.jpg","alt":"Diverse group of business colleagues having informal meeting"},"heroImage":null,"thumbnailImage":null},{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":{"name":"MGI Research"}},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"An approach to boosting US labor productivity"},"url":{"path":"/mgi/our-research/an-approach-to-boosting-us-labor-productivity"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Interview"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Interview"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"In a virtual roundtable discussing the latest McKinsey Global Institute research, McKinsey leaders and industry executives explore what it will take to achieve a potential $10 trillion boost to the American economy."},"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/mckinsey global institute/our research/an approach to boosting us labor productivity/an approach to boosting us labor productivity-1046679686-thumb-1536x1536.jpg","alt":"Bent arrow pointing upwards"},"heroImage":null,"thumbnailImage":null}]},"useEnhancedAuthors":{"boolValue":true},"acknowledgements":{"value":"\u003cp\u003eThe authors wish to thank Jose Luis Blanco, Henry Bristol, Alina Malinauskaite, Marino Mugayar-Baldocchi, Jose Maria 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Skilled-trades roles were selected based on frequent migration to other jobs or significant portions of the workforce entering retirement, along with extensive barriers to entry, slow career progression, and criticality to the advancement of public and private infrastructure (including clean-energy projects and advanced manufacturing).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eComparing the most recent BLS net new job growth of skilled roles between 2022 and 2032 with the average annual job openings, there is an imbalance of 20 job openings for every one net new employee. In other words, for the 26,000 net new employees that are projected to fill these 12 roles, there will be an estimated 584,000 annual openings. 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These dynamics are exacerbated by the significant number of retirements and steep turnover rates\u0026mdash;often much higher than the national separation rate of 3.5 percent.[[footnote 1]] Valuable knowledge is being lost, hampering the training and development of new colleagues.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFinally, technical roles have long suffered from stark underrepresentation of women, whose share of the skilled-trades workforce remains in the single digits, and persons of color, whose share generally lags behind the average of about 40 percent (exhibit). This lack of diversity could further inhibit overall skilled-workforce growth.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[ceros 4]]\n\u003ch4\u003eJob flow definitions and calculations\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe following outlines the key categories used to estimate and analyze workforce dynamics and trends:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003ejob keepers\u003c/em\u003e: BLS estimated 2032 total jobs, minus BLS estimated annual job openings for the next decade, multiplied by ten years\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003enet new jobs\u003c/em\u003e: BLS annual occupational growth for the next decade, multiplied by ten years\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eretirement\u003c/em\u003e: number of workers currently aged 55 and over, sourced from Lightcast 2023 occupational reports\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eestimated job churn\u003c/em\u003e: new hires minus net new jobs and estimated retirements\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe distinction between retirements and job churn is an estimate based on the typical retirement age of 61 in these roles.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eAcquisition cost calculation\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe $5.3 billion acquisition cost, influenced by the anticipated turnover rate, is calculated by multiplying the projected BLS job openings for each role over the next decade with the Society of Human Resource Management\u0026rsquo;s estimated median cost-per-hire acquisition and industry benchmark training costs for manufacturing and construction firms.\u003c/p\u003e"}},"aboutTheAuthors":{"jsonValue":{"value":""}},"headline":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Our methodology"}},"footnotes":{"value":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;Job openings and labor turnover\u0026mdash;February 2024,\u0026rdquo; 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