REMNANTS OF OSCAR

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white-space: nowrap;"><b> <a href="/"> Home</a>   Graphics   <a href="/archive/2024/OSCAR.shtml?">Archive</a>    </b></center> <hr align="left" noshade style="width: 100%;"> </td> </tr> </table>     <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tr align="center" valign="top"> </tr> <tr align="center" valign="top">  </tr> </table>     <a name="contents"></a><br> <style> input[type=radio] { display:none; } input[type=radio] + label { display:inline-block; padding:4px; margin-bottom: 0; width:130px; color: #333; text-align: center; text-shadow: 0 1px 1px rgba(255,255,255,0.75); vertical-align: middle; cursor: pointer; background-color: #f5f5f5; background-image: -moz-linear-gradient(top,#fff,#e6e6e6); background-image: -webkit-gradient(linear0,0,0 100%, from(#fff),to(#e6e6e6)); background-image: -webkit-linear-gradient(top,#fff,#e6e6e6); background-image: -o-linear-gradient(top,#fff,#e6e6e6); background-image: linear-gradient(to bottom,#fff,#e6e6e6); background-repeat: repeat-x; border: 1px solid #ccc; border-color: #e6e6e6 #e6e6e6 #bfbfbf; border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1) rgba(0,0,0,0.1) rgba(0,0,0,0.25); border-bottom-color: #b3b3b3; } input[type=radio]:checked + label { background-image: none; outline: 0; -webkit-box-shadow: inset 0 2px 4px rgba(0,0,0,0.15); -moz-box-shadow: inset 0 2px 4px rgba(0,0,0,0.15); box-shadow: inset 0 2px 4px rgba(0,0,0,0.15); background-color: #d0d0d0; font-weight: bold; border: 1px solid #444444; } </style> <center> <h1 style="width: 100%"> <a style="color: red" href="/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/.shtml?expCone#contents">*** Click Here For The New Experimental Cone ***</a> </h1> </center> <h3 style="width: 100%">Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center</h3></a> <noscript><span style="color:red;"><br>JavaScript/Active Scripting must be enabled to view other versions of this maps.</span> </noscript> <center> <div id="options"> <table border= 1"> <tr> <td style="padding:5px; text-align:center;"> <b>Forecast Length*</b> </td> <td style="padding:5px; text-align:center;"> <b>Forecast Track Line</b> </td> <td style="padding:5px; text-align:center;"> <b>Initial Wind Field</b> </td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center"> <input id = "day5" type="radio" onclick="changefhr('5day');" /><label for="day5">Full Forecast</label><br> <input id = "day3" type="radio" onclick="changefhr('3day');" /><label for="day3">3 days</label> </td> <td align="center"> <input id = "lineon" type="radio" onclick="changeline('on');" /><label for="lineon">On</label><br> <input id = "lineoff" type="radio" onclick="changeline('off');" /><label for="lineoff">Off</label> </td> <td align="center"> <input id = "radon" type="radio" onclick="changerad('on');" /><label for="radon">On</label><br> <input id = "radoff" type="radio" onclick="changerad('off');" /><label for="radoff">Off</label> </td> </tr> </table> </div> <img id="coneimage" src = "/storm_graphics/AT16/refresh/AL162024_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" alt="cone graphic" /> </center> <script language="javascript" type="text/javascript"> day5conenoline = "/storm_graphics/AT16/refresh/AL162024_5day_cone_no_line+png/_5day_cone_no_line.png"; day5coneline = "/storm_graphics/AT16/refresh/AL162024_5day_cone_with_line+png/_5day_cone_with_line.png"; day3conenoline = "/storm_graphics/AT16/refresh/AL162024_3day_cone_no_line+png/_3day_cone_no_line.png"; day3coneline = "/storm_graphics/AT16/refresh/AL162024_3day_cone_with_line+png/_3day_cone_with_line.png"; day5conenolinerad = "/storm_graphics/AT16/refresh/AL162024_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png"; day5conelinerad = "/storm_graphics/AT16/refresh/AL162024_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png"; day3conenolinerad = "/storm_graphics/AT16/refresh/AL162024_3day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/_3day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png"; day3conelinerad = "/storm_graphics/AT16/refresh/AL162024_3day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/_3day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png"; //Set Defaults conefhr = "day5"; document.getElementById("day5").checked = true; document.getElementById("day3").checked = false; coneline = "off"; document.getElementById("lineon").checked = false; document.getElementById("lineoff").checked = true; conerad = "on"; document.getElementById("radon").checked = true; document.getElementById("radoff").checked = false; function changefhr(fhr) { if (fhr == "5day") { document.getElementById("day3").checked = false; conefhr = "day5"; } else if (fhr == "3day") { document.getElementById("day5").checked = false; conefhr = "day3"; } changeimage(); } function changeline(line) { if (line == "on") { document.getElementById("lineoff").checked = false; coneline = "on"; } else if (line == "off") { document.getElementById("lineon").checked = false; coneline = "off"; } changeimage(); } function changerad(rad) { if (rad == "on") { document.getElementById("radoff").checked = false; conerad = "on"; } else if (rad == "off") { document.getElementById("radon").checked = false; conerad = "off"; } changeimage(); } function changeimage() { if (conefhr == "day5") { if (coneline == "on") { if (conerad == "on") { coneimage.src = day5conelinerad; } else if (conerad == "off") { coneimage.src = day5coneline; } } else if (coneline == "off") { if (conerad == "on") { coneimage.src = day5conenolinerad; } else if (conerad == "off") { coneimage.src = day5conenoline; } } } else if (conefhr == "day3") { if (coneline == "on") { if (conerad == "on") { coneimage.src = day3conelinerad; } else if (conerad == "off") { coneimage.src = day3coneline; } } else if (coneline == "off") { if (conerad == "on") { coneimage.src = day3conenolinerad; } else if (conerad == "off") { coneimage.src = day3conenoline; } } } } // coneimage.src = day5conelinerad; </script> <p class="hdr">* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the "Full Forecast" and "3 day" graphic will be identical</p> <b><a href="/storm_graphics/AT16/refresh/AL162024_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/.png">Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic</a> <br><br></b> <h3>How to use the cone graphic (video):</h3> <a href="/cone_usage.php"><img src="/images/cone_video_thumb.jpg" alt="Link to video describing cone graphic"></a> <h3>About this product:</h3> <p class="reg"> This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time: <br><br> <b>D</b>: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH<br> <b>S</b>: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH<br> <b>H</b>: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH<br> <b>M</b>: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH<br></p> <p class="reg" style="width: 100%"> NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles. </p> <p class="reg" style="width: 100%"> It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in the <a href="?swath#contents">Wind History</a> graphic linked above. </p> <p class="reg" style="width: 100%"> Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force), 50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in <a href="/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/.shtml"> tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions</a>. This information is also presented in graphical form for the <a href="?tswind120#contents">34 kt</a>, <a href="?50wind120#contents">50 kt</a>, and <a href="?hwind120#contents">64 kt</a> thresholds. </p> <p class="std" style="width: 100%"> Note:  <a href="/aboutcone.shtml">A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available</a>. </p>                   <br><br> <div class="footer"> <div class="footer-content"> <div class='footer-header'> Quick Links and Additional Resources<br> </div> <div class='footer-column'> <a class='footer-column-head' href='/cyclones/'>Tropical Cyclone Forecasts</a><br> <a href='/cyclones'>Tropical Cyclone Advisories</a><br> <a href='/gtwo.php'>Tropical Weather Outlook</a><br> <a href='/audio'>Audio/Podcasts</a><br> <a href='/aboutnhcprod.shtml'>About Advisories</a><br> <br> <a class='footer-column-head' href='/marine'>Marine Forecasts</a><br> <a href='/marine/offshores.php'>Offshore Waters Forecasts</a><br> <a href='/marine/grids.php'>Gridded 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REMNANTS OF OSCAR