An Effect of temperature on the spread of Covid-19 in Qatar, Kuwait and other Gulf countries

<!DOCTYPE html> <html lang="en-US" xml:lang="en-US"> <head> <meta charset="utf-8"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0"> <title> An Effect of temperature on the spread of Covid-19 in Qatar, Kuwait and other Gulf countries | Kuwait Journal of Science </title> <link rel="icon" href="https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/public/journals/1/favicon_en_US.png"> <meta name="generator" content="Open Journal Systems 3.2.1.1"> <meta name="gs_meta_revision" content="1.1"/> <meta name="citation_journal_title" content="Kuwait Journal of Science"/> <meta name="citation_journal_abbrev" content="KJS"/> <meta name="citation_issn" content="2307-4116"/> <meta name="citation_author" content="Maha Abujazar"/> <meta name="citation_author_institution" content="CSE Dept., Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Qatar"/> <meta name="citation_author" content="Shafiqah Al-Awadhi"/> <meta name="citation_author_institution" content="Dept. of Statistics and Operations research, Faculty of Science, Kuwait University P.O Box 5969, Safat 13060, Kuwait"/> <meta name="citation_author" content="Mustapha Rachdi"/> <meta name="citation_author_institution" content="CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, France"/> <meta name="citation_author" content="Halima Bensmail"/> <meta name="citation_author_institution" content="Qatar Computing Research Institute, Hamad Bin Khalifa University"/> <meta name="citation_title" content="An Effect of temperature on the spread of Covid-19 in Qatar, Kuwait and other Gulf countries"/> <meta name="citation_language" content="en"/> <meta name="citation_date" content="2021"/> <meta name="citation_doi" content="10.48129/kjs.splcov.19499"/> <meta name="citation_abstract_html_url" content="https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/index.php/KJS/article/view/19499"/> <meta name="citation_pdf_url" content="https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/index.php/KJS/article/download/19499/1001"/> <link rel="schema.DC" href="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" /> <meta name="DC.Creator.PersonalName" content="Maha Abujazar"/> <meta name="DC.Creator.PersonalName" content="Shafiqah Al-Awadhi"/> <meta name="DC.Creator.PersonalName" content="Mustapha Rachdi"/> <meta name="DC.Creator.PersonalName" content="Halima Bensmail"/> <meta name="DC.Date.created" scheme="ISO8601" content="2022-07-26"/> <meta name="DC.Date.dateSubmitted" scheme="ISO8601" content="2022-03-15"/> <meta name="DC.Date.issued" scheme="ISO8601" content="2021-12-06"/> <meta name="DC.Date.modified" scheme="ISO8601" content="2022-07-31"/> <meta name="DC.Description" xml:lang="en" content="Background: COVID-19 has emerged as a serious pandemic that emerged during since the end of 2019. The dissemination and survival of coronaviruses have been demonstrated to be affected by ambient temperature in epidemiological and laboratory research. The goal of this investigation was to see if temperature plays a role in the infection produced by this novel coronavirus.Methods: Between March 29, 2020, and September 29, 2020, daily confirmed cases and meteoro-logical parameters in many Gulf countries were collected. Using a generalized additive model, we investigated the nonlinear relationship between mean temperature and COVID-19 confirmed cases.. To further investigate the association, we employed a piecewise linear regression.Results: According to the exposure-response curves, the association between mean temperature and COVID-19 cases was nearly linear in the window of 21 − 30◦C while it is almost flat beyond that window. When the number was below 21◦C (lag 0-14), each 1◦C increase was associated with a 4.861 percent (95 percent CI: 3.209 − 6.513) increase in mean temperature (lag 0-14). Our sensitiv-ity analysis confirmed these conclusions.Conclusions: Our findings show a positive linear association between mean temperature and the number of COVID-19 cases with a threshold of 21◦C. There is little evidence that COVID-19 case numbers would rise as the weather becomes colder, which has important consequences for making health strategy and decision."/> <meta name="DC.Format" scheme="IMT" content="application/pdf"/> <meta name="DC.Identifier" content="19499"/> <meta name="DC.Identifier.DOI" content="10.48129/kjs.splcov.19499"/> <meta name="DC.Identifier.URI" content="https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/index.php/KJS/article/view/19499"/> <meta name="DC.Language" scheme="ISO639-1" content="en"/> <meta name="DC.Rights" content="Copyright (c) 2022 "/> <meta name="DC.Rights" content=""/> <meta name="DC.Source" content="Kuwait Journal of Science"/> <meta name="DC.Source.ISSN" content="2307-4116"/> <meta name="DC.Source.URI" content="https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/index.php/KJS"/> <meta name="DC.Title" content="An Effect of temperature on the spread of Covid-19 in Qatar, Kuwait and other Gulf countries"/> <meta name="DC.Type" content="Text.Serial.Journal"/> <meta 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aria-current="page"> <span aria-current="page"> Statistics </span> </li> </ol> </nav> <article class="obj_article_details"> <h1 class="page_title"> An Effect of temperature on the spread of Covid-19 in Qatar, Kuwait and other Gulf countries </h1> <div class="row"> <div class="main_entry"> <section class="item authors"> <h2 class="pkp_screen_reader">Authors</h2> <ul class="authors"> <li> <span class="name"> Maha Abujazar </span> <span class="affiliation"> CSE Dept., Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Qatar </span> </li> <li> <span class="name"> Shafiqah Al-Awadhi </span> <span class="affiliation"> Dept. of Statistics and Operations research, Faculty of Science, Kuwait University P.O Box 5969, Safat 13060, Kuwait </span> </li> <li> <span class="name"> Mustapha Rachdi </span> <span class="affiliation"> CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, France </span> </li> <li> <span class="name"> Halima Bensmail </span> <span class="affiliation"> Qatar Computing Research Institute, Hamad Bin Khalifa University </span> </li> </ul> </section> <section class="item doi"> <h2 class="label"> DOI: </h2> <span class="value"> <a href="https://doi.org/10.48129/kjs.splcov.19499"> https://doi.org/10.48129/kjs.splcov.19499 </a> </span> </section> <section class="item abstract"> <h2 class="label">Abstract</h2> <p>Background: COVID-19 has emerged as a serious pandemic that emerged during since the end of 2019. The dissemination and survival of coronaviruses have been demonstrated to be affected by ambient temperature in epidemiological and laboratory research. The goal of this investigation was to see if temperature plays a role in the infection produced by this novel coronavirus.<br>Methods: Between March 29, 2020, and September 29, 2020, daily confirmed cases and meteoro-logical parameters in many Gulf countries were collected. Using a generalized additive model, we investigated the nonlinear relationship between mean temperature and COVID-19 confirmed cases.. To further investigate the association, we employed a piecewise linear regression.<br>Results: According to the exposure-response curves, the association between mean temperature and COVID-19 cases was nearly linear in the window of 21 − 30◦C while it is almost flat beyond that window. When the number was below 21◦C (lag 0-14), each 1◦C increase was associated with a 4.861 percent (95 percent CI: 3.209 − 6.513) increase in mean temperature (lag 0-14). Our sensitiv-ity analysis confirmed these conclusions.<br>Conclusions: Our findings show a positive linear association between mean temperature and the number of COVID-19 cases with a threshold of 21◦C. There is little evidence that COVID-19 case numbers would rise as the weather becomes colder, which has important consequences for making health strategy and decision.</p> </section> </div> <div class="entry_details"> <div class="item cover_image"> <div class="sub_item"> <a href="https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/index.php/KJS/issue/view/57"> <img src="https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/public/journals/1/cover_issue_57_en_US.jpg" alt=""> </a> </div> </div> <div class="item galleys"> <h2 class="pkp_screen_reader"> Downloads </h2> <ul class="value galleys_links"> <li> <a class="obj_galley_link pdf" href="https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/index.php/KJS/article/view/19499/1001"> Click here to download pdf </a> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="item published"> <section class="sub_item"> <h2 class="label"> Published </h2> <div class="value"> <span>26-07-2022</span> </div> </section> </div> <div class="item issue"> <section class="sub_item"> <h2 class="label"> Issue </h2> <div class="value"> <a class="title" href="https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/index.php/KJS/issue/view/57"> Special Issue on COVID </a> </div> </section> <section class="sub_item"> <h2 class="label"> Section </h2> <div class="value"> Statistics </div> </section> </div> </div> </div> </article> </div> </div> <div class="pkp_structure_sidebar left" role="complementary" aria-label="Sidebar"> <div class="pkp_block block_information"> <h2 class="title">Information</h2> <div class="content"> <ul> <li> <a href="https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/index.php/KJS/information/readers"> For Readers </a> </li> <li> <a href="https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/index.php/KJS/information/authors"> For Authors </a> </li> <li> <a href="https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/index.php/KJS/information/librarians"> For Librarians </a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="pkp_block block_developed_by"> <h2 class="pkp_screen_reader"> Developed By </h2> <div class="content"> <a href="http://pkp.sfu.ca/ojs/"> Open Journal Systems </a> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="pkp_structure_footer_wrapper" role="contentinfo"> <a id="pkp_content_footer"></a> <div class="pkp_structure_footer"> <div class="pkp_footer_content"> <div class="custom-footer-row"> <div class="custom-footer-column"><img src="https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/public/site/images/kuwaitjs/foter-log.png" alt="" width="246" height="172" /></div> <div class="custom-footer-column"> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td><img src="https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/public/site/images/kuwaitjs/location.png" width="32" height="32" /></td> <td>P.O. 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An Effect of temperature on the spread of Covid-19 in Qatar, Kuwait and other Gulf countries | Kuwait Journal of Science