Mysteel：短期内无缝管均价或维持盘整运行-我的钢铁网

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style='color:#3861ab'>无缝管</a>厂挂牌价多数上调30-80元/吨，全国无缝管均价小幅上调。政策方面，第一批国债即将落地，多地频出积极宽松的房地产政策，终端采购情绪部分好转，下游需求有所释放，市场心态偏谨慎，恐再次踏空。短期内无缝管行情走势如何，笔者简单阐述一下自己的观点：</p> <p>1、节后无缝管均价明显上涨</p> <p>  据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>统计截至5月24日，全国无缝<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010109-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>钢管</a>均价报4839元/吨，环比五一节后第一个工作日价格上涨51元/吨，同比去年下跌34元/吨。自5月以来，黑色系期货价格震荡走强，原料价格震荡运行，环比上行，拉动无缝管均价呈现缓慢上涨的态势，全国主流城市价格谨慎跟涨，涨幅区间在50-100元/吨。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/25/93860b35dd9e4aa3b65545e3dd24b6bd.png" width="513" height="258" /></p> <p>2、5月无缝管厂利润维持区间波动</p> <p> 5月山东热轧管坯价格环比上涨80元/吨，无缝管厂出厂价格同步上调，上涨幅度不及原料，无缝管厂理论利润基本保持在100元/吨上下浮动。截至5月24日，以20#热轧、Ф108*4.5mm无缝管为例，山东样本企业无缝管厂理论利润为70元/吨，周环比增加20元/吨，月环比下降80元/吨。目前管厂供应水平维持在中高位，原料成本价格支撑，短期内管厂利润或有所收缩。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/25/c3c71ff56e9046ab8d34c58e5bb37bca.png" width="458" height="276" /></p> <p>3、管厂库存消化偏慢供应端小幅收缩</p> <p>受宏观利好消息驱动，原材料价格震荡走强，管厂原料库存不高，管坯市场交投氛围有所好转；管厂利润维持区间震荡，加之原料备货并不充足，管厂接单情况一般，供应面有小幅收缩的趋势。据Mysteel调研，（33家生产企业，122条产线）最新一期数据显示，无缝管厂周产量31.86万吨，月同比减少1.71万吨；产能利用率69.22%，月同比下降3.72%；厂内库存73.52万吨，月同比减少0.59万吨；近期部分管厂产线检修，产量虽有所下降，但管厂库存消化速度缓慢，管厂压力仍存。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/25/bf93d9f528464167a2682719bc020f59.png" width="554" height="227" /></p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/25/aa1cae17a61f4f67b276e665acc509c1.png" width="554" height="228" /></p> <p>综上，5月无缝管供需基本面表现为：1、原材料价格拉动无缝管均价明显上涨2、无缝管厂利润保持区间内波动；3、管厂产量呈弧线下降，供应端收窄，但降库压力仍存。笔者认为，伴随着房地产重大利好，黑色系价格短期内或维持相对高位，市场投机性需求或有一定增量，但因逐步进入钢材消费淡季，商家信心略有恢复仍保持谨慎居多，操作上或仍以“短、平、快”的节奏积极出货为主。政策利好驱动与成本端支撑下，短期内无缝管均价或维持盘整运行态势，同时要谨防黑色系冲高回落以及需求韧性不足导致的价格回调。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：陈苗 021-66896831 </br> 资讯监督：陈文花 021-26093689 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-4286-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-4286-------------1.html" external 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