Mysteel解读：2023年上半年华北玉米行情回顾及下半年展望-我的钢铁网

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16:49</span> <span class="time" style='margin-right: 0.5rem'>来源：我的钢铁网</span> </p> <article class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="1452" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/07/10/e42bccc147e1468ba5a70bb76d64616a.png" alt="" width="600" height="320.94594594594594" /></p> <p><strong>上半年行情回顾：</strong></p> <p>上半年华北地区玉米价格整体维持先弱后强的走势。前期受心态偏弱的影响，市场维持震荡下跌，以山东寿光深加工企业玉米价格为例，上半年其玉米收购价格最低点出现在5月15日，价格参考2700元/吨，之后价格持续上涨，并创年内新高，截至6月30日，其收购价格参考2930元/吨，较去年同期上涨10元/吨，较本年最低点（5月15日）上涨230元/吨，上涨幅度8.52%。上半年玉米价格运行主要分为以下几个阶段。</p> <p>第一阶段，1月份到3月上旬。此阶段玉米价格变动相对平缓幅度有限。春节之前玉米价格下跌后涨，1月底企业基本完成建库，按需采购为主。春节之后，市场购销恢复较快，贸易商出货积极性增加，以潮粮购销为主，同时东北货源补充华北市场，价格整体偏弱运行。</p> <p>第二阶段，3月中下旬到5月中旬。此阶段玉米市场心态转换较快，价格波动幅度较大，整体可以概括为“下跌-上涨-稳定-下跌”。3月中旬开始，小麦价格超预期下跌，带动玉米下跌，市场看空心态加重，部分饲料企业开始收购小麦，控制玉米采购。下旬小麦价格下跌加快，形成小麦和玉米联动下跌的局面。4月上旬价格微幅反弹。随着价格跌至低位，贸易商出货减弱，阴雨天气影响，价格经历短暂上涨，中旬价格维持区间内窄幅调整的局面。 4月下旬东北货源流入量增加，市场有效供应增加，月底玉米价格震荡偏弱，但下跌幅度有限。同时小麦价格价格震荡下跌，饲料企业收购玉米和小麦价差基本持平，小麦替代优势显现，饲料中小麦替代比例逐渐增加，对市场信心形成压制，5月15日，玉米价格创年内最低点2700元/吨。</p> <p>第三阶段，5月下旬到6月底。玉米价格持续上涨，并创年内新高。中旬开始，小麦上市量增大，贸易商多收购小麦，玉米出货量减少，深加工提价促收，价格上涨。随着华北余粮不断减少，贸易商看涨意愿不断增强，对价格的预期增加，玉米价格持续上涨。截至7月10日，山东寿光深加工玉米收购价格参考2974元/吨，较5月15日最低点上涨274元/吨，上涨幅度10.15%。</p> <p><strong>下半年展望：</strong></p> <p>短期来看，余粮不断减少是最大的利好，预计7月份玉米价格维持震荡偏强的走势。随着价格的不断上涨，市场对价格高点的预期也逐渐提升，普遍认为3000元/吨是重要的价格阻力。经过连续上涨，从上涨幅度和时间上来看，价格有调整的需求，密切关注贸易商的出货节奏的变化。进入8月份，市场不确定因素增加，春玉米开始上市，市场逐渐会按照对新玉米的价格预期来定价，价格维持震荡偏弱运行，新粮上市前逐渐见底。10月份进入新玉米购销期，考虑到玉米和小麦之间的价差关系，新玉米在小麦价格之下运行的可能性较大。加上市场心态的影响，预计贸易商大量收购建库做长线的积极性减弱，综合考虑华北市场购销特点，玉米10-12月份玉米价格维持区间内震荡运行，出现单边上涨和下跌的可能性较小。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：刘栋 0533-7026632 </br> 资讯监督：王涛 0533-7026866 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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