Mysteel节后预测：宁夏建筑钢材价格或将继续震荡偏强-我的钢铁网

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src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/09/27/135218.png" style="width: 473px; height: 279px;" /></p> <p>今年以来，银川市场建筑钢材价格持续走高，底部螺纹钢价格从最初3800元/吨，一路高歌猛进到目前5520元/吨。期间虽然螺纹钢价格有短暂突破6000元/吨，但是好景不长，断崖式下跌4600元/吨。进入9月份以来，随着焦煤<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0501-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>焦炭</a>持续上涨，以及各地出台不同双控政策，部分钢厂开始检修限产，市场资源进一步短缺。宁夏市场亦是如此，在资源紧缺以及主导钢厂拉动下，近期市场价格持续上扬。尽管本地市场价格已经处于近期高位，但是市场成交却不温不火，高价风险已经显现。一方面目前下游终端客户资金相对偏紧，采购延缓；另一方面，较高钢材价格让一些终端客户望而却步，持币观望。</p> <p><strong>二、资源紧俏市场库存较低</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/09/27/135336.png" style="width: 468px; height: 284px;" /></p> <p>进入三季度以后，西北区域主要钢厂开始不同程度检修减产，市场资源供给进一步紧缺。据不完全统计，目前宁夏区域市场库存量仅在2万吨左右，钢厂库存也仅仅不到10万吨，整体库存处于历史较低水平。一方面目前宁夏地区交易模式改变，钢厂直发增多，市场库存相应下降。另一方面则是，目前流通于宁夏市场内蒙资源偏紧，以及宁夏区域部分钢厂检修所致，整体供给下降。短期来看，由于能耗双控原因，西北地区包括宁夏等地，后期资源依旧处于偏紧状态。</p> <p><strong>三、能耗双控市场不确定性增加</strong></p> <p>8月12日，国家发展改革委发布《2021年上半年各地区能耗双控目标完成情况晴雨表》，能耗强度降低方面，青海、宁夏、广西、广东、福建、新疆、云南、陕西、江苏9个省(区)上半年能耗强度不降反升，为一级预警。国家发改委对一级预警的省区提出新要求：“对能耗强度不降反升的地区(地级市、州、盟)，2021年暂停“两高”项目节能审查(国家规划布局的重大项目除外)。</p> <p>于是，各地省份开始能耗双控，大部分省份一些能耗较大企业纷纷开始检修停产，尤其是钢铁企业，资源供给进一步减少，市场不确定性增加。与宁夏相关，内蒙地区从25日开始区域内大部分建材钢企要进行停产检修到月底。而本地宁夏区域，A钢厂一座1250高炉从9月1日起一直停产检修，影响了约30%产量，其他钢厂也处于不饱和生产状态，后期资源将进一步偏紧。甘肃地区，预计10月中旬以后，A钢企也降有30%以上减产，整体资源减少。如此一来，上半年以来钢企满负荷生产现象不会存在，大概率多是产能利用率低于上半年，对于钢价形成一定支撑。</p> <p>展望节后，宁夏区域建材价格或将继续呈现高位震荡态势，一方面目前本地市场商家手中资源较少，而且多是之前高价成本，低价销售可能性较小。而在目前能耗双控大环境下，本地市场资源供给趋紧，价格也多表现坚挺。因此，预计国庆十一小长假之后，宁夏地区建筑<a href="https://www.mysteel.com/" target="_blank">钢材价格</a>可能继续呈现震荡偏强态势。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：景薇 021-26093766 </br> 资讯监督：万超 021-26093770 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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