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pl-16 pr-16 ram:pl-0 ram:pr-0"> <h1 class="ydd-article-headline fnt-yle-black" itemprop="headline"> <span>Sitra: Fram till 2050 kommer Finlands elbehov att fördubblas och den billigaste lösningen är vindkraft </span> </h1> <div class="flex items-center"> <span class="icon icon--time"></span> <span class="clr-C txt-13" property="dc:date dc:created" content="2021-09-28T04:37:31+03:00" datatype="xsd:dateTime" rel="sioc:has_creator"> <span class="published" itemprop="datePublished" content="2021-09-28T04:37:31+03:00">Publicerad 28.09.2021 04:37.</span> <span class="updated" itemprop="dateModified" content="2021-09-29T17:18:39+03:00">Uppdaterad 29.09.2021 17:18.</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="ydd-article-main-image mb-16 relative"> <div itemprop="image" itemscope="" itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject" class="ydd-image"> <figure role="group"> <div class="ydd-image__wrapper ydd-fluid-aspect-ratio-placeholder" data-aspect-ratio="16:9"> <img alt="Vindkraftverk i horisonten av en skogshöjd." itemprop="image" content="https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/f_auto,fl_progressive/fl_keep_iptc/q_88/w_4762,h_2679,c_crop,x_1674,y_0/w_700/v1567432430/39-5876505d6d1e2a45436.jpg" data-base-url="https://web.archive.org/web/20211009204718/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/f_auto,fl_progressive/" data-yle-id="39-5876505d6d1e2a45436" data-crop-coords="w_4762,h_2679,c_crop,x_1674,y_0" data-image-width="4762" data-image-height="2679" data-image-version="1567432430" data-copyright="Marko Kotilainen" data-caption="Det mest kostnadseffektiva sättet att förse Finland med el är vindkraft på land, enligt Sitra." data-ydd-modal-src="https://web.archive.org/web/20211009204718/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/f_auto,fl_progressive/q_88/w_4762,h_2679,c_crop,x_1674,y_0/w_4762/w_1400,h_1400,c_fit/v1567432430/39-5876505d6d1e2a45436.jpg" data-ydd-modal-width="1400" data-ydd-modal-height="788" class="ydd-image__image js-ydd-image lazyload" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" data-src="https://web.archive.org/web/20211009204718/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/f_auto,fl_progressive/q_80/w_4762,h_2679,c_crop,x_1674,y_0/w_400/v1567432430/39-5876505d6d1e2a45436.jpg"> </div> <meta itemprop="url" content="https://web.archive.org/web/20211009204718/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/f_auto,fl_progressive/fl_keep_iptc/q_88/w_4762,h_2679,c_crop,x_1674,y_0/w_700/v1567432430/39-5876505d6d1e2a45436.jpg"> <noscript><img typeof="foaf:Image" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20211009204718im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/f_auto,fl_progressive/q_80/w_4762,h_2679,c_crop,x_1674,y_0/w_400/v1567432430/39-5876505d6d1e2a45436.jpg" alt="Vindkraftverk i horisonten av en skogshöjd."/></noscript> <figcaption class="ydd-image__captions txt-13 pt-8"> <span class="visually-hidden">Bildtext</span> <span class="ydd-image__caption clr-F" itemprop="description">Det mest kostnadseffektiva sättet att förse Finland med el är vindkraft på land, enligt Sitra.</span> <div class="ydd-image__copyright clr-C" itemprop="copyrightHolder">Bild: Marko Kotilainen</div> </figcaption> </figure> </div> </div> <div class="ydd-author-list border-clr-B border-b-solid border-t-solid flex overflow-x-auto pl-16 pr-16 ram:pl-0 ram:pr-0 scrolling-touch whitespace-nowrap"> <div itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Person" itemprop="author" class="flex-inline flex-shrink-0 items-center pb-8 pr-24 pt-8"> <a class="focus-underline flex items-center" itemprop="url" href="/web/20211009204718/https://svenska.yle.fi/u/56-7-479"> <div class="ydd-authors-list__placeholder-wrapper bg-clr-C clip-path-circle flex-shrink-0 mr-8 overflow-hidden rounded-full p-0"> <meta itemprop="image" content="https://web.archive.org/web/20211009204718im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/f_auto,fl_progressive/fl_keep_iptc/q_88/w_3797,h_3797,c_crop,x_422,y_66/w_700/v1566987963/39-5863345d66561ac5ed7.jpg"> <div class="ydd-authors-list__image" style="background-image: url(https://web.archive.org/web/20211009204718im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/f_auto,fl_progressive/q_80/w_3797,h_3797,c_crop,x_422,y_66/w_40/v1566987963/39-5863345d66561ac5ed7.jpg)"> </div> </div> <span class="flex flex-col txt-13"> <span itemprop="name">Anna Dönsberg</span> </span> </a> </div> </div> <div class="max-w-cod mb-32 mt-32 mx-auto pl-16 pr-16"> <div class="mb-16 mt-16"> <div class="ydd-share-buttons flex js-ydd-share-buttons"> <a class="ydd-share-buttons__button ydd-share-buttons__button--facebook block clr-lock-W cursor-pointer focus-bg-split ml-0 mr-8 rounded-full js-ydd-share-buttons-facebook" 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6.468c-.23.012-.237.179-1.491-.367-1.255-.546-2.01-1.872-2.069-1.958-.06-.085-.486-.693-.463-1.305.023-.612.358-.901.478-1.021.119-.121.256-.146.339-.143.084 .003.167 .017.24 .019.073 .002.179-.035.274 .218.095 .253.323 .874.352 .938.029 .063.047 .136.002 .218-.045.082-.068.132-.133.203-.065.071-.137.157-.196.211-.065.059-.133.124-.065.251 .069.127 .305.544 .665.888 .462.442 .861.588 .984.655 .123.067 .196.06 .273-.021.076-.081.326-.352.415-.473.088-.122.171-.098.284-.052.113 .046.718 .37.841 .437.122 .066.205 .101.234 .154.029 .053.02 .302-.095.589-.115.286-.638.548-.868.56z"/> </svg> </a> </div> </div> <div itemprop="articleSection" content="Klimat" class="ydd-body-content ydd-body-content--article mb-64"> <p class="ydd-lead fnt-bold"> Med dagens teknik skulle det behövas cirka 10 000 nya vindmöllor för att Finland ska kunna möta framtidens elbehov och bli koldioxidneutralt så kostnadseffektivt som möjligt. Det är resultatet i en studie jubileumsfonden Sitra låtit göra.</p> <p>– Det här är en grov uppskattning. Eftersom tekniken inom vindkraft utvecklas hela tiden och vindmöllorna blir effektivare går antalet förmodligen ner till mellan 5000 och 8000, säger Janne Peljo,<strong> </strong>projektledare för klimat- och miljölösningar i Sitra.</p><p>Antalet vindmöllor i Finland i dag är drygt 840 och de producerar 10 procent av vår el.</p><p>I enlighet med statsminister Sanna Marins regeringsprogram ska Finland bli koldioxidneutralt senast år 2035 och koldioxidnegativt efter det. Enligt studien <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20211009204718/https://www.sitra.fi/en/publications/enabling-cost-efficient-electrification-in-finland/"><em>Enabling cost-efficient electrification in Finland</em></a> är det fullt möjligt för Finland att nå klimatmålen inom den tidsplanen.</p><p>I praktiken förutsätter det att fossila bränslen ersätts av utsläppsfri elektricitet inom industri, trafik och uppvärmning.</p><p>Studien gjordes av en internationell arbetsgrupp från konsultföretagen Compass Lexecon och Enerdata samt forskare från Villmanstrand-Lahtis tekniska universitet. Studien baserar sig på en modellering av energisystemet och elmarknaden, intervjuer med experter och på workshoppar.</p><h2 class="ydd-heading-large">Vi kommer att behöva mycket mera el</h2><p>I studien uppskattas det att en omfattande elektrifiering av Finlands ekonomi ökar elbehovet med mer än en femtedel från nuläget fram till år 2035. Fram till år 2050 kommer den årliga elförbrukningen i Finland att fördubblas från den nuvarande nivån på cirka 80 terawattimmar till närmare 170 TWh.</p><p>För att svara mot den här ökningen i förbrukningen, måste Finlands elproduktionskapacitet mer än tredubblas från nuvarande cirka 20 gigawatt till över 70 gigawatt fram till 2050. I det modellerade scenariot utgörs merparten av den nya produktionen av landbaserad vindkraft, som ger billigare el än vindkraft till havs eller kärnkraft.</p><div class="ydd-article-image ydd-article-image--normal mb-32 ml-12 mr-12 mt-32 relative"> <div itemprop="image" itemscope="" itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject" class="ydd-image"> <figure role="group"> <div class="ydd-image__wrapper ydd-fluid-aspect-ratio-placeholder" data-aspect-ratio="16:9"> <img alt="Flygfoto av två rotorblad som transporteras med lastbilar längsmed en landsväg i Karleby." itemprop="image" content="https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/f_auto,fl_progressive/fl_keep_iptc/q_88/w_5464,h_3074,c_crop,x_0,y_0/w_700/v1632805811/39-848275612e11a803f4a.jpg" data-base-url="https://web.archive.org/web/20211009204718/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/f_auto,fl_progressive/" data-yle-id="39-848275612e11a803f4a" data-crop-coords="w_5464,h_3074,c_crop,x_0,y_0" data-image-width="5464" data-image-height="3074" data-image-version="1632805811" data-copyright="Kalle Niskala / Yle" data-caption="Två rotorblad påväg till montering av ett nytt vindkraftverk i Karleby. " data-ydd-modal-src="https://web.archive.org/web/20211009204718/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/f_auto,fl_progressive/q_88/w_5464,h_3074,c_crop,x_0,y_0/w_5464/w_1400,h_1400,c_fit/v1632805811/39-848275612e11a803f4a.jpg" data-ydd-modal-width="1400" data-ydd-modal-height="788" class="ydd-image__image js-ydd-image lazyload" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" data-src="https://web.archive.org/web/20211009204718/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/f_auto,fl_progressive/q_80/w_5464,h_3074,c_crop,x_0,y_0/w_400/v1632805811/39-848275612e11a803f4a.jpg"/> </div> <meta itemprop="url" content="https://web.archive.org/web/20211009204718/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/f_auto,fl_progressive/fl_keep_iptc/q_88/w_5464,h_3074,c_crop,x_0,y_0/w_700/v1632805811/39-848275612e11a803f4a.jpg"/> <noscript><img typeof="foaf:Image" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20211009204718im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/f_auto,fl_progressive/q_80/w_5464,h_3074,c_crop,x_0,y_0/w_400/v1632805811/39-848275612e11a803f4a.jpg" alt="Flygfoto av två rotorblad som transporteras med lastbilar längsmed en landsväg i Karleby."/></noscript> <figcaption class="ydd-image__captions txt-13 pt-8"> <span class="visually-hidden">Bildtext</span> <span class="ydd-image__caption clr-F" itemprop="description">Två rotorblad påväg till montering av ett nytt vindkraftverk i Karleby. </span> <div class="ydd-image__copyright clr-C" itemprop="copyrightHolder">Bild: Kalle Niskala / Yle</div> </figcaption> </figure> </div> </div><h2 class="ydd-heading-large">Vindkraft till havs borde bli billigare</h2><p>I dag utgör landbaserad vindkraft alltså ungefär 10 procent av Finlands elproduktion, men år 2050 enligt scenarierna i rapporten ökar den till 70 procent. Jämföras kan att i Danmark står vindkraft redan nu för över hälften av elproduktionen.</p><p>Den här modellen räknade inte med vindkraft till havs eftersom det är ett dyrare alternativ. Den som grundar en vindkraftspark ute till havs ska också stå för kostnaderna för att koppla elen till stamnätet. En utjämning skattekostnaderna mellan landbaserad och havsbaserad vindkraft och en <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20211009204718/https://svenska.yle.fi/a/7-10002729">transparent hyresnivå</a> har föreslagits.</p><h2 class="ydd-heading-large">Kräver stora investeringar</h2><p>Vindkraften som sådan räcker heller inte. Studien betonar att vindkraftsproduktionen, som varierar enligt väder, behöver kompletteras med flexibilitet i efterfrågan, energilager och flexibla energiformer som vattenkraft. Dessutom krävs goda överföringsförbindelser inom Finland och också till grannländerna.</p><p>Under de kommande årtiondena förutsätter det stora investeringar i elproduktion och -lagring, ansenliga tilläggssatsningar på stamnätet samt gränsöverskridande överföringsförbindelser. I eldistributionsnäten som finns närmare konsumenterna behövs däremot inga betydande extra satsningar förutom de nuvarande planerna.</p><p>Men om det å andra sidan inte finns tillräckligt med landbaserad vindkraft tillgänglig, behövs det mer kärnkraft, batterier och importerad el. Om en fullskalig flexibilitet i elförbrukningen inte nås, behövs fler ellager och elproduktion som motvikt för att täcka lagringssvinn. Det leder till ökade kostnader.</p><h2 class="ydd-heading-large">Vätets roll är ännu oklar</h2><p>Allting kan inte ersättas med el. Till exempel inom kemiindustrin kan dock rent producerat väte eller hållbar biomassa användas i stället för fossila bränslen.</p><p>– Väte kommer att spela en stor roll i världens energisystem i framtiden. Både EU, USA och Kina investerar stort. Men det återstår att se vilken roll Finland tar, konstaterar Peljo.</p><p>Med väte kan man tillverka syntetiska bränslen som kan användas i flyg-, båt- och tung trafik där det är svårt att hitta andra utsläppsfria bränslen. Ett omfattande utnyttjande av väte minskar behovet av biomassa och batterier, men samtidigt ökar elförbrukningen ytterligare. Eftersom bränsle producerat genom elektrolys, kräver mycket el.</p><div class="ydd-article-image ydd-article-image--normal mb-32 ml-12 mr-12 mt-32 relative"> <div itemprop="image" itemscope="" itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject" class="ydd-image"> <figure role="group"> <div class="ydd-image__wrapper ydd-fluid-aspect-ratio-placeholder" data-aspect-ratio="16:9"> <img alt="Kärnkraftverket Olkiluoto 3:s röda reaktorbyggnad fotograferad utifrån. " itemprop="image" content="https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/f_auto,fl_progressive/fl_keep_iptc/q_88/w_6240,h_3510,c_crop,x_0,y_0/w_700/v1632805957/39-5885475d710a4957dcf.jpg" data-base-url="https://web.archive.org/web/20211009204718/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/f_auto,fl_progressive/" data-yle-id="39-5885475d710a4957dcf" data-crop-coords="w_6240,h_3510,c_crop,x_0,y_0" data-image-width="6240" data-image-height="3510" data-image-version="1632805957" data-copyright="Jari Pelkonen / Yle" data-caption="Att bygga kärnkraftverk tar länge och investerarna drar sig för kostnaderna." data-ydd-modal-src="https://web.archive.org/web/20211009204718/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/f_auto,fl_progressive/q_88/w_6240,h_3510,c_crop,x_0,y_0/w_6240/w_1400,h_1400,c_fit/v1632805957/39-5885475d710a4957dcf.jpg" data-ydd-modal-width="1400" data-ydd-modal-height="788" class="ydd-image__image js-ydd-image lazyload" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" data-src="https://web.archive.org/web/20211009204718/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/f_auto,fl_progressive/q_80/w_6240,h_3510,c_crop,x_0,y_0/w_400/v1632805957/39-5885475d710a4957dcf.jpg"/> </div> <meta itemprop="url" content="https://web.archive.org/web/20211009204718/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/f_auto,fl_progressive/fl_keep_iptc/q_88/w_6240,h_3510,c_crop,x_0,y_0/w_700/v1632805957/39-5885475d710a4957dcf.jpg"/> <noscript><img typeof="foaf:Image" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20211009204718im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/f_auto,fl_progressive/q_80/w_6240,h_3510,c_crop,x_0,y_0/w_400/v1632805957/39-5885475d710a4957dcf.jpg" alt="Kärnkraftverket Olkiluoto 3:s röda reaktorbyggnad fotograferad utifrån. "/></noscript> <figcaption class="ydd-image__captions txt-13 pt-8"> <span class="visually-hidden">Bildtext</span> <span class="ydd-image__caption clr-F" itemprop="description">Att bygga kärnkraftverk tar länge och investerarna drar sig för kostnaderna.</span> <div class="ydd-image__copyright clr-C" itemprop="copyrightHolder">Bild: Jari Pelkonen / Yle</div> </figcaption> </figure> </div> </div><h2 class="ydd-heading-large">Kärnkraften har blivit dyr</h2><p>Eftersom modellen valde de mest kostnadseffektiva sätten att producera el blev kärnkraftens roll liten. Olkiluoto 3 som började byggas 2005 och som skulle vara färdigt 2009 har blivit försenat och beräknas tas i bruk i februari nästa år. Det säger sig självt att en sådan försening kostar mycket.</p><p>– Det kärnkraftverk som planeras till Hanhikivi kunde vi inte ta med i modellen, eftersom vi helt enkelt hade för lite information om projektet för att kunna göra beräkningar. Men vi räknar med att de nuvarande kärnkraftverken får förlängd användningstid, säger Peljo.</p><h2 class="ydd-heading-large">Att lagra koldioxid svårt i Finland</h2><p>Vid 2050 borde Finland vara koldioxidnegativt, men eftersom jordbruk, avfallshantering och vissa processer inom industrin fortfarande har utsläpp borde Finland fånga in koldioxid från atmosfären. I praktiken sker det genom koldioxidlagring från biomassa eller BECCS (från engelskans Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage). Det är en åtgärd som skapar minusutsläpp av koldioxid genom att kombinera användning av biomassa med geologisk koldioxidlagring.</p><p>– Problemet är att Finlands berggrund inte lämpar sig för koldioxidinlagring. Det skulle bli omöjligt eller väldigt dyrt. Så vi får transportera koldioxiden till norska kusten eller Nordsjön där den kan lagras i tömda oljefält, säger Peljo.</p><p><em>Artikeln uppdaterades kl. 08.13 genom att en bild föreställande vindmöllor ersättes med en bild av en landsvägstransport av rotorblad. Bildtexten "De här möllorna i Korsnäs ska kompletteras med en vindkraftspark till havs" ersattes med "Två rotorblad på väg till montering av ett nytt vindkraftverk i Karleby". Samtidigt byttes en bild föreställande gula tunnor med en bild av ett kärnkraftverk.</em></p> </div> <div class="-ml-16 -mr-16"> <div class="ydd-articles-list mb-32"> <div class="border-4 border-b-solid border-clr-B deco-line-title mb-16 mt-8 pl-16 pr-16 w-full"> <div class="items-center flex justify-between"> <h2 class="fnt-bold txt-15 uppercase" id="aria-articles-list-related-links"> Läs också </h2> </div> </div> <ul aria-labelledby="aria-articles-list-related-links" class="list-reset"> <li class="ydd-articles-list__item block border-b-solid border-clr-B ml-16 mr-16 pb-16 pt-16"> <div class="ydd-articles-list__image mb-16"> <a class="block relative" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20211009204718/https://svenska.yle.fi/a/7-10002729" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1" data-analytics-context=""> <div itemprop="image" itemscope="" itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject" class="ydd-image"> <figure role="group"> <div class="ydd-image__wrapper ydd-fluid-aspect-ratio-placeholder" 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class="ydd-article-tags__details mb-32 ml-16 mt-32"> <summary class="ydd-article-tags__summary cursor-pointer flex pb-16 pointer-events-none relative summary-reset user-select-none"> <div class="flex"> <div class="ydd-article-tags__pill bg-clr-H border-clr-B border-solid br flex items-center pointer-events-auto"> <span id="aria-article-tags" class="ydd-article-tags__pill-text clr-C truncate">Taggar: <span aria-hidden="true" itemprop="keywords" content="elektricitet, Import av elektricitet, Grön elektricitet, koldioxid, vattenkraft, kärnkraftverk, vindkraft, elproduktion">Elektricitet, Import av elektricitet</span> </span> <span class="ydd-article-tags__toggle ml-8"></span> </div> </div> </summary> <div class="ydd-article-tags__content pl-8"> <ul class="ydd-article-tags__list break-word list-reset relative w-full" aria-labelledby="aria-article-tags"> <li class="ydd-article-tags__list-item mb-16 pl-16 relative"> <a class="ydd-article-tags__link clr-A" href="/web/20211009204718/https://svenska.yle.fi/t/18-205950">Elektricitet</a> </li> <li class="ydd-article-tags__list-item mb-16 pl-16 relative"> <a class="ydd-article-tags__link clr-A" href="/web/20211009204718/https://svenska.yle.fi/t/18-69419">Import av elektricitet</a> </li> <li class="ydd-article-tags__list-item mb-16 pl-16 relative"> <a class="ydd-article-tags__link clr-A" href="/web/20211009204718/https://svenska.yle.fi/t/18-87170">Grön elektricitet</a> </li> <li class="ydd-article-tags__list-item mb-16 pl-16 relative"> <a class="ydd-article-tags__link clr-A" href="/web/20211009204718/https://svenska.yle.fi/t/18-5364">Koldioxid</a> </li> <li class="ydd-article-tags__list-item mb-16 pl-16 relative"> <a class="ydd-article-tags__link clr-A" href="/web/20211009204718/https://svenska.yle.fi/t/18-207462">Vattenkraft</a> </li> <li class="ydd-article-tags__list-item mb-16 pl-16 relative"> <a class="ydd-article-tags__link clr-A" href="/web/20211009204718/https://svenska.yle.fi/t/18-209082">Kärnkraftverk</a> </li> <li class="ydd-article-tags__list-item mb-16 pl-16 relative"> <a class="ydd-article-tags__link clr-A" href="/web/20211009204718/https://svenska.yle.fi/t/18-217957">Vindkraft</a> </li> <li class="ydd-article-tags__list-item mb-16 pl-16 relative"> <a class="ydd-article-tags__link clr-A" href="/web/20211009204718/https://svenska.yle.fi/t/18-652">Elproduktion</a> </li> </ul> </div> </details> <div class="ydd-comments mb-32" id="comments"> <h2 class="visually-hidden">Diskussion om artikeln</h2> <div id="yle-comments-plugin" class="js-ydd-comments-plugin lazyload" data-id="7-10006548"></div> </div> <aside id="ydd-article-related-content"> <div class="ydd-articles-list mb-32"> <div class="border-4 border-b-solid border-clr-B deco-line-title mb-16 mt-8 pl-16 pr-16 w-full"> <div class="items-center flex justify-between"> <h2 class="fnt-bold txt-15 uppercase" id="aria-articles-list-related-content"> Relaterat 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