An Evaluation of CBO鈥檚 Projections of Deficits and Debt From 1984 to 2023

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block-system block-system-main-block"> <article> <div> <div class="top-section" style="position: relative;"> <h1 class="title" id="page-title"> <span>An Evaluation of CBO鈥檚 Projections of Deficits and Debt From 1984 to 2023</span> </h1> <div class="meta"> <div class="field field--name-field-display-date field--type-datetime field--label-hidden field__item"><time datetime="2024-12-05T12:00:00Z">December 5, 2024</time> </div> <div class="content-type">Report</div> </div> <article id="node-61068" class=""> <div class="posted"> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-interactive field--type-entity-reference-revisions field--label-hidden field__item"> <div class="paragraph paragraph--type--interactive-graphics paragraph--view-mode--preview"> <div class="interactive-label">Interactive</div> <div class="field field--name-field-interactive-graphics-code field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"> <div id="highcharts-8b5e74cd-1023-4d05-b6c5-2d8a4fbd1051"></div><script> 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style=\"font-size: 14px\">{point.key}</span><br/>","valueSuffix":"%"},"credits":{"enabled":false},"pane":{"background":[]},"responsive":{"rules":[]}};new Highcharts.Chart("highcharts-8b5e74cd-1023-4d05-b6c5-2d8a4fbd1051", options);}}})(); </script></div> </div> </div> </article> <div class="summary"><div class="view view-summary view-id-summary view-display-id-meta_summary js-view-dom-id-b442d8c482b1533a83150974f078330cca5c4b60a5c8aa73a4b08c16f9093c43"> <div class="view-content"> <div class="views-row"><p>CBO assesses the quality of the baseline projections of deficits and debt that it has made each spring from 1984 to 2023.</p></div> </div> </div> </div> <section class="meta--data"> <div class="left"> <div id="toc"></div> </div> <div class="right" style=""> <div class="documents" style=""> <div class="view view-html-report-link view-id-html_report_link view-display-id-link js-view-dom-id-39e0505927e722f7e4fe740f0d7195257b4b3c82daadc651926adf3ba2fde6f5"> <div class="view-content"> <div class="views-row"><div class="views-field views-field-title-1"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/61067">View Document</a></span></div></div> </div> </div> <div class="view view-view-document view-id-view_document view-display-id-block_1 js-view-dom-id-d675229bc4c5cccf14163e4025d16294e0ff6f5b21790cf75342ba6e422ee10d"> <div class="view-content"> <div class="views-row"> <a href="/system/files/2024-12/60664-Deficits-Debt.pdf">View Document</a><div class="document-size">1.23 MB</div></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </section> </div> <div class="main-section"> <section class="summary"> <header role="button" class="head-section" aria-expanded="false" aria-controls="content-panel"><h2>Summary</h2></header> <div class="content" id="content-panel" aria-hidden="true"> <article> <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field__item"><p>In this report, the Congressional Budget Office assesses the quality of the baseline projections of deficits and debt that it has made each spring from 1984 to 2023. Since its inception, CBO has regularly published a budget baseline鈥攑rojections of federal revenues, spending, deficits or surpluses, and debt held by the public鈥攁long with a forecast of the nation鈥檚 economy. As required by law, the baseline reflects the assumption that current laws governing taxes and spending will generally remain unchanged.</p><p>The projections are not predictions of budgetary outcomes; rather, they give lawmakers a benchmark for measuring the effects of policy options or proposed legislation. The projections encompass the current year鈥攖he year in which the projections are made鈥攁nd a period of 10 years in the future (or 5 years in the case of baseline projections made before December 1995).</p><p>To assess the quality of its projections, CBO has adjusted them to account for the estimated effects of legislation enacted after the projections were developed. That way, the focus is on the projection errors: The resulting differences between projected and actual deficits and debt exclude the effects of subsequent legislation.</p><p>CBO measures the quality of its projections by their tendency to be overestimates or underestimates (centeredness), by the spread in the size of errors (dispersion), and by how much actual outcomes differ from projected ones (accuracy).</p><p>The results of CBO鈥檚 evaluation are as follows:</p><ul><li><strong>Deficits</strong>. CBO has tended to overestimate deficits. Projections for the budget year have been more accurate than those for the 6th and 11th years, mainly because changes in the economy and a variety of other factors are more difficult to anticipate over longer time horizons.</li><li><strong>Debt</strong>. The agency鈥檚 debt projections have been centered for the budget year and 6th year but have tended to be overestimates for the 11th year. The projections have been less accurate over longer time horizons. The dispersion of errors has been much larger for debt projections than for deficit projections because errors in annual debt projections compound over the projection period. As a result, CBO鈥檚 projections of debt are more uncertain than the agency鈥檚 projections of deficits.</li><li><strong>Comparison With the Administration鈥檚 Projections</strong>. For years for which comparable projections are available, 1993 to 2023, errors in CBO鈥檚 budget-year projections of deficits were similar to errors in budget-year projections of deficits made by the Office of Management and Budget.</li><li><strong>Effects of Enacted Legislation</strong>. On average, errors in CBO鈥檚 deficit projections have been substantially smaller than the estimated budgetary effects of legislation enacted after the projections were made.</li></ul></div> </article> </div> </section> <section class="documents"> <header class="head-section"> <a name="data"></a> <h2 id="">Data and Supplemental Information</h2> </header> <div class="content"> <div class="view view-supplemental-attachments view-id-supplemental_attachments view-display-id-block_3 js-view-dom-id-63d266e2c127a1ef2a3549d7c0e277aceec4bca908aef7e4784a9f0f29f5430a"> <div class="view-content"> <div class="item-list"> <ul> <li><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-name"><div class="field-content"><a href="/system/files/2024-12/60664-Data.xlsx">Data Underlying Figures and Table</a></div></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-uploaded-file-note"><span class="field-content uploaded-file-note"></span></div></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="view view-supplemental 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2024</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2025-01-10T12:00:00Z">January 10, 2025</time> </div></div></li> <li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/55234" hreflang="en">An Evaluation of CBO鈥檚 Past Deficit and Debt Projections</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2019-09-11T12:00:00Z">September 11, 2019</time> </div></div></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </section> </div> </div> </article> </section> </section> </main> <footer id="site-footer" role="contentinfo"> <div class="footer-top-wrapper"> <section class="footer-top"> <section id="block-cbo-stayconnected" class="block block-block-content block-block-content121d8e86-2c04-4907-8bda-853870ff58b5"> <h2 >Stay Connected</h2> <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary 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An Evaluation of CBO鈥檚 Projections of Deficits and Debt From 1984 to 2023 | Congressional Budget Office