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byline-share-container"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-8 mdc-u-ts-9"><span> </span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Andrew Grant </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/ziad-haider" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_2734c4f mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Ziad Haider</span></a><span> </span></span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/anke-raufuss" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_2734c4f mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Anke Raufuss</span></a></span></span></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11 ArticleContent_mck-c-article-content__share-tools__kWRRw"></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-5"><div class="mck-u-links-inline">The need for board-level strategic conversations on geopolitical risk is urgent.</div></div></div></section><main data-layer-region="article-body" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div class="mdc-o-content-body mck-u-dropcap"> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__iFmyt mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-layer-region="downloads-right-rail"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f"></h3><div><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="#/download/%2F~%2Fmedia%2Fmckinsey%2Fbusiness%20functions%2Frisk%2Four%20insights%2Fblack%20swans%20gray%20rhinos%20and%20silver%20linings%20anticipating%20geopolitical%20risks%20and%20openings%2Fblack-swans-gray-rhinos-and-silver-linings-anticipating-geopolitical-risks-and-openings.pdf%3FshouldIndex%3Dfalse" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f" target="_self" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="black-swans-gray-rhinos-and-silver-linings-anticipating-geopolitical-risks-and-openings" data-layer-report-name="black-swans-gray-rhinos-and-silver-linings-anticipating-geopolitical-risks-and-openings>"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_2734c4f mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f"> (5 pages)</span></a></div></div></div></div> <p><strong>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine</strong> in February 2022 triggered more than 1,000 companies to curtail their operations in the world’s 11th biggest economy, revealing an imperative for global firms to bolster their ability to anticipate geopolitical risk and <a href="/featured-insights/themes/how-to-build-resilience-in-2023-and-beyond">build resilience</a>.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="225b8ec9-1db0-474f-a059-f2d0a9ddbe4f"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">1</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="225b8ec9-1db0-474f-a059-f2d0a9ddbe4f" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“Over 1,000 companies have curtailed operations in Russia—but some remain,” Yale School of Management, January 19, 2023; “Economy of Russia—statistics & facts,” Statista, January 16, 2023. </span></span></span></a></span></p>  <p>The global order still <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/war-in-ukraine-twelve-disruptions-changing-the-world">reels from disruptions related to the war in Ukraine</a>, including those in energy, food security, supply chains, and more. A central concern among global CEOs who speak with us is whether and how they will contend with additional geopolitical ruptures when they occur. As Japan’s prime minister, Fumio Kishida, stated at the 2022 Shangri-La Dialogue global security forum, “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow.”<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="ffeb1a59-15a6-4dec-8958-3233b815b1d9"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">2</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="ffeb1a59-15a6-4dec-8958-3233b815b1d9" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">John Chipman, “Strategic survey 2022: Strategic prospects,” International Institute for Strategic Studies, December 5, 2022. </span></span></span></a></span></p> <p>In between navigating the fallout from Europe and unfolding strategic competition in Asia, multinational corporations must also manage a host of long-tail political risks and conflicts across other geographies, including Africa and South Asia. </p> <p>Even as boards and CEOs work to build <a href="/capabilities/risk-and-resilience/our-insights/how-global-companies-can-manage-geopolitical-risk">capabilities in managing such risks</a> and developing <a href="/capabilities/risk-and-resilience/our-insights/how-to-build-geopolitical-resilience-amid-a-fragmenting-global-order">geopolitical resilience</a>, the imperative to lift one’s gaze and look around the corner has become key to strategy and performance. Scenario planning is squarely back. </p> <p>In the extensive literature on <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-use-and-abuse-of-scenarios">scenario planning</a>, notably Peter Schwartz’s<em> The Art of the Long View</em>, a core point is the need to develop frameworks, with colorful and gripping language, that help leaders <a href="https://hbr.org/1985/11/scenarios-shooting-the-rapids">“reperceive”</a> the future and unlock strategic foresight.</p> <div data-module-category="" class="PullQuote_mck-c-pullquote__DbaQ5 mck-o-lg-center"><blockquote data-component="mdc-c-blockquote" class="PullQuote_mck-c-blockquote__6n21p PullQuote_mck-c-blockquote--hide-quotes__CpGpg mdc-c-blockquote mdc-c-blockquote--is-quotes___TozKo_2734c4f"><p>The imperative to lift one’s gaze and look around the corner has become key to strategy and performance—scenario planning is squarely back.</p></blockquote></div> <p>To facilitate such reperceiving, we outline a framework for geopolitical scenario planning that categorizes geopolitical events in three ways: <em>black swans</em>,<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="ce421648-c2ff-4578-8642-0d4787307e24"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">3</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="ce421648-c2ff-4578-8642-0d4787307e24" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Nassim Nicholas Taleb, <em>The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable</em>, New York, NY: Random House, 2007.</span></span></span></a></span> <em>gray rhinos</em>,<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="8cbeb867-f126-4118-8f67-8179aaf71ebe"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">4</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="8cbeb867-f126-4118-8f67-8179aaf71ebe" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Michele Wucker, <em>The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore</em>, New York, NY: St. Martin Press, 2016.</span></span></span></a></span> and <em>silver linings</em>. </p> <p>Evolving from scanning to planning across these categories, leaders should develop lookouts as an early-warning system and full-scale contingency plans for a core subset of geopolitical risks. </p> <p>The concepts “black swan” and “gray rhino” are widely known and intuitively understood by many corporate leaders we have engaged. We seek to go further, offering an integrated, broadly additive framework for global companies that seek to distill geopolitical complexity and to structure their strategic conversations amid a fragmenting global order. </p> <h2>Reperceiving with multiple lenses</h2> <p>In scanning for scenarios, organizations must first purposefully cast a wide net, rounding out their thinking with an appropriate mixture of internal and external perspectives.</p> <p>Internal perspectives may combine expertise in the organization from country team leadership with that from internal public affairs, legal, risk, and security professionals. External perspectives may range from retaining a political risk advisory group that has an arm’s-length view; to scanning public source materials, such as the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Report or governmental sources such as the US National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends and similar strategic assessments commissioned by EU institutions; to leveraging insights from academic, policy, media, and nonprofit arenas. </p> <p>The resulting scenarios can be viewed through three lenses: </p> <h3>Black swans</h3> <p>Black swans are commonly known as unpredictable events with high impact. Notwithstanding Russia’s overt military buildup in 2021, its proceeding to a full-scale invasion of Ukraine was arguably the core case study in 2022. While black swans are inherently unpredictable, pushing one’s thinking to anticipate as wide a range of scenarios as possible is critical for sound planning and preparedness. Potential black swans could run the gamut from the political implosion of a major economy; the forcible removal of a leader or a government; a significant regional military conflict; an unprecedented climate event that results in mass casualties, waves of migration, and famine; to another pandemic.</p> <h3>Gray rhinos</h3> <p>In contrast to the unpredictable nature of black swans, gray rhinos are probable events with high impact. We see these risks out there in the distance, but we don’t clearly perceive their full dimensions. We’re sure they will charge at us, causing material damage, but we don’t know precisely when or how much. Organizations must ensure that they have a framework in place to clear out of the way of gray rhinos when they charge. Sometimes, multiple gray rhinos may stampede simultaneously, resulting in an even more appropriately termed “crash” of rhinos (as a group of rhinos is called).</p> <p>Among the gray rhinos on the global radar is the risk of regional conflicts in Asia escalating amid broader strategic competition. Other imminently charging rhinos may include a major escalation in the Middle East, with cooling relationships and international and domestic pressure against specific regimes that cause an uptick in direct or proxy conflict.</p> <h3>Silver linings</h3> <p>In the maelstrom of geopolitical risks, organizations must step back and calmly assess openings and opportunities that allow them to operate in a safe zone and potentially garner competitive advantage. These “silver linings,” as we call them, can be fragile and readily blurred out by storm clouds, and yet they are within the reach of leaders who exhibit <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategic-courage-in-an-age-of-volatility">strategic courage</a> amid the volatility. </p> <p>For example, one opening around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a material disruption of Europe’s energy market and the opportunity for an accelerated renewable-energy transition, whereby Europe can potentially lead the world. Another silver lining when geopolitical tensions constrain supply chains is the emergence of pivot geographies, such as India and Vietnam, as additional opportunities for investment amid “friendshoring.” </p> <h2>From scanning to planning</h2> <p>A strategic conversation about black swans, gray rhinos, and silver linings should lead to an aligned understanding within an organization of which two to three scenarios have the most material effect on an organization. Teams supporting leadership should develop a set of clear lookouts for tracking the risk scenarios and trends, whether in a positive or a negative direction. The lookouts might include key economic, political, military, and regulatory developments. </p> <p>Equipped with a targeted set of scenarios with key lookouts, we recommend narrowing down to one to two scenarios that fuse thought with action. Specifically, the organization should engage in active contingency planning on a host of dimensions that include data and networks, internet protocols, people, partnerships, repatriation of funds, and security. </p> <h2>Shape or be shaped?</h2> <p>Anticipating the environment that can shape an organization is critical, but many leaders we speak with also think about defining their role in shaping the geopolitical environment around them. </p> <p>Indeed, CEOs increasingly expect to take positions on geopolitical matters. According to the <em>2022 Edelman Trust Barometer Special Report: The Geopolitical Business</em>, 59 percent of respondents state that addressing geopolitics is a top priority for business. The point, however, is not simply about taking a stand. Leaders within multinational corporations also are reflecting on appropriate ways to inform policy in a more polarized geopolitical environment. </p> <p>The CEO of a leading Asian company, for example, shared with us how his country’s national-security leadership invited him to a briefing where the central point of discussion was “which country poses the biggest threat” to their own country. He shared his bemusement at the question, saying “Armies are always searching for enemies,” but also reflected philosophically on his own role, as one of his country’s top business leaders, in informing the discussion. </p> <p>As such, an organization should also consider how to employ its voice, whether through its board, CEO, public or government affairs, or business associations—and how best to inform policy makers about diligently thinking through the potential consequences of their decisions. </p> <div data-module-category="" class="PullQuote_mck-c-pullquote__DbaQ5 mck-o-lg-center"><blockquote data-component="mdc-c-blockquote" class="PullQuote_mck-c-blockquote__6n21p PullQuote_mck-c-blockquote--hide-quotes__CpGpg mdc-c-blockquote mdc-c-blockquote--is-quotes___TozKo_2734c4f"><p>An organization should consider how to employ its voice and how best to inform policy makers about diligently thinking through the potential consequences of their decisions.</p></blockquote></div> <hr/> <p><em>All the notions we thought solid, all that made for stability in international relations, all that made for regularity in the economy . . . in a word, all that tended happily to limit the uncertainty of the morrow, all that gave nations and individuals some confidence in the morrow . . . all this seems badly compromised. Never has humanity combined so much power with so much disorder, so much knowledge with so much uncertainty. </em></p> <p>—Paul Valéry, “Historical Fact” (1932) </p> <p>These words, penned in an essay nearly a century ago by French poet Paul Valéry (and excerpted from the opening of <em>The Art of the Long View</em>), resonate today. Valéry was associated with the Symbolist movement in poetry, a group of late 19th-century French writers who favored imagination over realism in poetry in order to access “greater truths.” </p> <p>In our era of volatility, the need for board-level strategic conversations on geopolitical risk is vital. These discussions should channel all participants’ imagination and analysis.</p> <p>Doing so, of course, requires not just a compelling framework. It also demands professionals who have the trust of the leadership—and a leadership team with a common understanding of the geopolitical context. This understanding, refreshed through briefings and policy papers, enables the decision makers to think broadly, creatively, and deliberatively. </p> <p>Combining those elements, we pose this two-part question: </p> <p><em>What are your organization’s black swans, gray rhinos, and silver linings, and how will you manage and seize the corresponding risks and openings?</em> </p></div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xl"><section role="contentinfo" data-layer-region="article-about-authors" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 AboutAuthor_mck-c-about-author__nRJzu"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center"></h5><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline mck-u-links-inline--secondary mdc-u-mt-5"><div><p><strong>Andrew Grant</strong> is a senior partner in McKinsey’s Auckland office, <strong>Ziad Haider</strong> is global director of geopolitical risk in the Singapore office, and <strong><a href="/our-people/anke-raufuss">Anke Raufuss</a></strong> is a partner in the Sydney office. </p> <p>The authors wish to thank Lucas Lim for his contributions to this article.</p></div></div></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-screen-only"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-5 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-9"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center">Explore a career with us</h5><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--align-center___ar3mu_2734c4f"><a 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gray rhinos and silver linings Anticipating geopolitical risks and openings","displayName":"Black swans gray rhinos and silver linings Anticipating geopolitical risks and openings","fields":null,"databaseName":"web","deviceId":"fe5d7fdf-89c0-4d99-9aa3-b5fbd009c9f3","itemId":"31f6f6fa-7296-432a-8ac2-0f2739c366b7","itemLanguage":"en","itemVersion":1,"layoutId":"ae753eb4-a035-40b4-83bf-4b4438df6742","templateId":"683910db-02ba-40ba-92e7-726c880160a9","templateName":"ArticleJSS","placeholders":{"jss-main":[{"uid":"232bb7e9-289f-492d-a916-2b6185e44a84","componentName":"ArticleTemplate","dataSource":"","fields":{"data":{"articleTemplate":{"title":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Black swans, gray rhinos, and silver linings: Anticipating geopolitical risks (and openings)"}},"sEOTitle":{"value":"New geopolitical risks: Black swans \u0026 gray rhinos"},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"The need for board-level strategic conversations on geopolitical risk is urgent."}},"sEODescription":{"value":"We explore a new framework for business scenario planning that categorizes geopolitical risk in three ways: black swans, gray rhinos, and silver linings."},"displayDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2023-02-24T00:00:00Z"}},"body":{"value":"[[Audio 1]]\n[[DownloadsSidebar]]\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eRussia\u0026rsquo;s invasion of Ukraine\u003c/strong\u003e in February 2022 triggered more than 1,000 companies to curtail their operations in the world\u0026rsquo;s 11th biggest economy, revealing an imperative for global firms to bolster their ability to anticipate geopolitical risk and \u003ca href=\"/featured-insights/themes/how-to-build-resilience-in-2023-and-beyond\"\u003ebuild resilience\u003c/a\u003e.[[Footnote 1]]\u003c/p\u003e\n[[MostPopularArticles 5]]\n\u003cp\u003eThe global order still \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/war-in-ukraine-twelve-disruptions-changing-the-world\"\u003ereels from disruptions related to the war in Ukraine\u003c/a\u003e, including those in energy, food security, supply chains, and more. A central concern among global CEOs who speak with us is whether and how they will contend with additional geopolitical ruptures when they occur. As Japan\u0026rsquo;s prime minister, Fumio Kishida, stated at the 2022 Shangri-La Dialogue global security forum, \u0026ldquo;Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow.\u0026rdquo;[[Footnote 2]]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn between navigating the fallout from Europe and unfolding strategic competition in Asia, multinational corporations must also manage a host of long-tail political risks and conflicts across other geographies, including Africa and South Asia. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEven as boards and CEOs work to build \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/risk-and-resilience/our-insights/how-global-companies-can-manage-geopolitical-risk\"\u003ecapabilities in managing such risks\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;and developing \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/risk-and-resilience/our-insights/how-to-build-geopolitical-resilience-amid-a-fragmenting-global-order\"\u003egeopolitical resilience\u003c/a\u003e, the imperative to lift one\u0026rsquo;s gaze and look around the corner has become key to strategy and performance. Scenario planning is squarely back. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn the extensive literature on \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-use-and-abuse-of-scenarios\"\u003escenario planning\u003c/a\u003e, notably Peter Schwartz\u0026rsquo;s\u003cem\u003e The Art of the Long View\u003c/em\u003e, a core point is the need to develop frameworks, with colorful and gripping language, that help leaders \u003ca href=\"https://hbr.org/1985/11/scenarios-shooting-the-rapids\"\u003e\u0026ldquo;reperceive\u0026rdquo;\u003c/a\u003e the future and unlock strategic foresight.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[PullQuote 1]]\n\u003cp\u003eTo facilitate such reperceiving, we outline a framework for geopolitical scenario planning that categorizes geopolitical events in three ways: \u003cem\u003eblack swans\u003c/em\u003e,[[Footnote 3]] \u003cem\u003egray rhinos\u003c/em\u003e,[[Footnote 4]] and \u003cem\u003esilver linings\u003c/em\u003e. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEvolving from scanning to planning across these categories, leaders should develop lookouts as an early-warning system and full-scale contingency plans for a core subset of geopolitical risks. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe concepts \u0026ldquo;black swan\u0026rdquo; and \u0026ldquo;gray rhino\u0026rdquo; are widely known and intuitively understood by many corporate leaders we have engaged. We seek to go further, offering an integrated, broadly additive framework for global companies that seek to distill geopolitical complexity and to structure their strategic conversations amid a fragmenting global order. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eReperceiving with multiple lenses\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn scanning for scenarios, organizations must first purposefully cast a wide net, rounding out their thinking with an appropriate mixture of internal and external perspectives.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eInternal perspectives may combine expertise in the organization from country team leadership with that from internal public affairs, legal, risk, and security professionals. External perspectives may range from retaining a political risk advisory group that has an arm\u0026rsquo;s-length view; to scanning public source materials, such as the World Economic Forum\u0026rsquo;s Global Risk Report or governmental sources such as the US National Intelligence Council\u0026rsquo;s Global Trends and similar strategic assessments commissioned by EU institutions; to leveraging insights from academic, policy, media, and nonprofit arenas. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe resulting scenarios can be viewed through three lenses: \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eBlack swans\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBlack swans are commonly known as unpredictable events with high impact. Notwithstanding Russia\u0026rsquo;s overt military buildup in 2021, its proceeding to a full-scale invasion of Ukraine was arguably the core case study in 2022. While black swans are inherently unpredictable, pushing one\u0026rsquo;s thinking to anticipate as wide a range of scenarios as possible is critical for sound planning and preparedness. Potential black swans could run the gamut from the political implosion of a major economy; the forcible removal of a leader or a government; a significant regional military conflict; an unprecedented climate event that results in mass casualties, waves of migration, and famine; to another pandemic.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eGray rhinos\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn contrast to the unpredictable nature of black swans, gray rhinos are probable events with high impact. We see these risks out there in the distance, but we don\u0026rsquo;t clearly perceive their full dimensions. We\u0026rsquo;re sure they will charge at us, causing material damage, but we don\u0026rsquo;t know precisely when or how much. Organizations must ensure that they have a framework in place to clear out of the way of gray rhinos when they charge. Sometimes, multiple gray rhinos may stampede simultaneously, resulting in an even more appropriately termed \u0026ldquo;crash\u0026rdquo; of rhinos (as a group of rhinos is called).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAmong the gray rhinos on the global radar is the risk of regional conflicts in Asia escalating amid broader strategic competition. Other imminently charging rhinos may include a major escalation in the Middle East, with cooling relationships and international and domestic pressure against specific regimes that cause an uptick in direct or proxy conflict.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eSilver linings\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn the maelstrom of geopolitical risks, organizations must step back and calmly assess openings and opportunities that allow them to operate in a safe zone and potentially garner competitive advantage. These \u0026ldquo;silver linings,\u0026rdquo; as we call them, can be fragile and readily blurred out by storm clouds, and yet they are within the reach of leaders who exhibit \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategic-courage-in-an-age-of-volatility\"\u003estrategic courage\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;amid the volatility. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor example, one opening around Russia\u0026rsquo;s invasion of Ukraine has been a material disruption of Europe\u0026rsquo;s energy market and the opportunity for an accelerated renewable-energy transition, whereby Europe can potentially lead the world. Another silver lining when geopolitical tensions constrain supply chains is the emergence of pivot geographies, such as India and Vietnam, as additional opportunities for investment amid \u0026ldquo;friendshoring.\u0026rdquo; \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eFrom scanning to planning\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA strategic conversation about black swans, gray rhinos, and silver linings should lead to an aligned understanding within an organization of which two to three scenarios have the most material effect on an organization. Teams supporting leadership should develop a set of clear lookouts for tracking the risk scenarios and trends, whether in a positive or a negative direction. The lookouts might include key economic, political, military, and regulatory developments. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEquipped with a targeted set of scenarios with key lookouts, we recommend narrowing down to one to two scenarios that fuse thought with action. Specifically, the organization should engage in active contingency planning on a host of dimensions that include data and networks, internet protocols, people, partnerships, repatriation of funds, and security. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eShape or be shaped?\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAnticipating the environment that can shape an organization is critical, but many leaders we speak with also think about defining their role in shaping the geopolitical environment around them. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIndeed, CEOs increasingly expect to take positions on geopolitical matters. According to the \u003cem\u003e2022 Edelman Trust Barometer Special Report: The Geopolitical Business\u003c/em\u003e, 59 percent of respondents state that addressing geopolitics is a top priority for business. The point, however, is not simply about taking a stand. Leaders within multinational corporations also are reflecting on appropriate ways to inform policy in a more polarized geopolitical environment. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe CEO of a leading Asian company, for example, shared with us how his country\u0026rsquo;s national-security leadership invited him to a briefing where the central point of discussion was \u0026ldquo;which country poses the biggest threat\u0026rdquo; to their own country. He shared his bemusement at the question, saying \u0026ldquo;Armies are always searching for enemies,\u0026rdquo; but also reflected philosophically on his own role, as one of his country\u0026rsquo;s top business leaders, in informing the discussion. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAs such, an organization should also consider how to employ its voice, whether through its board, CEO, public or government affairs, or business associations\u0026mdash;and how best to inform policy makers about diligently thinking through the potential consequences of their decisions. \u003c/p\u003e\n[[PullQuote 2]]\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eAll the notions we thought solid, all that made for stability in international relations, all that made for regularity in the economy . . . in a word, all that tended happily to limit the uncertainty of the morrow, all that gave nations and individuals some confidence in the morrow . . . all this seems badly compromised. Never has humanity combined so much power with so much disorder, so much knowledge with so much uncertainty. \u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026mdash;Paul Val\u0026eacute;ry, \u0026ldquo;Historical Fact\u0026rdquo; (1932) \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThese words, penned in an essay nearly a century ago by French poet Paul Val\u0026eacute;ry (and excerpted from the opening of \u003cem\u003eThe Art of the Long View\u003c/em\u003e), resonate today. Val\u0026eacute;ry was associated with the Symbolist movement in poetry, a group of late 19th-century French writers who favored imagination over realism in poetry in order to access \u0026ldquo;greater truths.\u0026rdquo; \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn our era of volatility, the need for board-level strategic conversations on geopolitical risk is vital. These discussions should channel all participants\u0026rsquo; imagination and analysis.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDoing so, of course, requires not just a compelling framework. It also demands professionals who have the trust of the leadership\u0026mdash;and a leadership team with a common understanding of the geopolitical context. This understanding, refreshed through briefings and policy papers, enables the decision makers to think broadly, creatively, and deliberatively. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCombining those elements, we pose this two-part question: \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eWhat are your organization\u0026rsquo;s black swans, gray rhinos, and silver linings, and how will you manage and seize the corresponding risks and openings?\u003c/em\u003e \u003c/p\u003e"},"isFullScreenInteractive":{"boolValue":false},"hideStickySocialShareBar":{"boolValue":false},"desktopID":{"value":""},"mobileID":{"value":""},"desktopURL":{"value":""},"mobileURL":{"value":""},"desktopPaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"mobilePaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"desktopOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"mobileOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"cerosOembedURL":{"value":""},"cerosRenderMode":{"targetItem":null},"cerosBackgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"hideByLine":{"boolValue":false},"tableOfContentsTitle":{"value":"TABLE OF CONTENTS"},"accessStatus":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"RegisteredUsers"},"value":{"value":"Registered Users"}}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"hasSpecialReport":{"boolValue":false},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"externalPublication":{"value":""},"mobileReady":{"boolValue":true},"forClientsOnly":{"boolValue":false},"excludeFromClientLink":{"boolValue":false},"originalPublishDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2023-02-24T00:00:00Z"}},"footnotes":{"value":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;Over 1,000 companies have curtailed operations in Russia\u0026mdash;but some remain,\u0026rdquo; Yale School of Management, January 19, 2023; \u0026ldquo;Economy of Russia\u0026mdash;statistics \u0026amp; facts,\u0026rdquo; Statista, January 16, 2023. \u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eJohn Chipman, \u0026ldquo;Strategic survey 2022: Strategic prospects,\u0026rdquo; International Institute for Strategic Studies, December 5, 2022. \u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eNassim Nicholas Taleb, \u003cem\u003eThe Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable\u003c/em\u003e, New York, NY: Random House, 2007.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eMichele Wucker, \u003cem\u003eThe Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore\u003c/em\u003e, New York, NY: St. Martin Press, 2016.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},"contributoryPractice":{"targetItems":[{"displayName":"Risk \u0026#38; Resilience"}]},"aboutTheAuthors":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAndrew Grant\u003c/strong\u003e is a senior partner in McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s Auckland office, \u003cstrong\u003eZiad Haider\u003c/strong\u003e is global director of geopolitical risk in the Singapore office, and \u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/our-people/anke-raufuss\"\u003eAnke Raufuss\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e is a partner in the Sydney office. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe authors wish to thank Lucas Lim for his contributions to this article.\u003c/p\u003e"},"authors":{"targetItems":[{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"CD1D61DC79B642908945CAA7A796BB32","name":"Andrew Grant","authorTitle":{"value":"Andrew Grant"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"37427F55F3E34A3989487AEB13FCC31C","name":"Ziad Haider","authorTitle":{"value":"Ziad Haider"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[{"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/ziad haider/ziad_haider_standard_profile_1536x1152.jpg","alt":"Ziad Haider"},"emailLinks":{"value":"Ziad_Haider@mckinsey.com"},"linkedInUrl":{"value":"https://www.linkedin.com/in/ziadhaider/"},"description":{"value":"Counsels boards and leaders of multinational corporations on how to manage geopolitical risks"},"locations":{"targetItems":[{"name":"Singapore","displayName":"Singapore"}]},"firmTitle":{"value":"Partner, Global Director of Geopolitical Risk"},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"Ziad Haider","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/ziad haider/ziad_haider_headshot_988x741.jpg"},"url":{"path":"/our-people/ziad-haider"}}]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"DD94BE1777364071B7EDCBB3D8AB6E70","name":"Anke Raufuss","authorTitle":{"value":"Anke Raufuss"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[{"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/anke raufuss/anke-raufuss-standard-profile-1536x1152.jpg","alt":"McKinsey Partner Anke Raufuss"},"emailLinks":{"value":"Anke_Raufuss@mckinsey.com"},"linkedInUrl":{"value":""},"description":{"value":"Advises clients on risk-management projects and leads McKinsey’s work in market and trading risk globally"},"locations":{"targetItems":[{"name":"Sydney","displayName":"Sydney"}]},"firmTitle":{"value":"Partner"},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"McKinsey Partner Anke Raufuss","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/anke raufuss/anke-raufuss-headshot-988x741.jpg"},"url":{"path":"/our-people/anke-raufuss"}}]}}]},"nonPartnerAuthors":{"targetItems":[]},"interactiveToUse":{"targetItem":null},"enableArticleComponents":{"boolValue":false},"relatedArticles":{"targetItems":[{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"War in Ukraine: Twelve disruptions changing the world"},"url":{"path":"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/war-in-ukraine-twelve-disruptions-changing-the-world"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"The war is devastating lives and roiling markets. 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