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If not, they’ll try to use price to bridge the gap, which is never easy. </p></header><div class="_47207bf25e6443e48904"><section class="_7302278d284fb75d742b"><div class="_4d22830be8e035459d36" data-testid="ArticleTimestamp"><time data-testid="ArticleTimestamp-time">Dec 1, 2024 – 4.59pm</time></div><div class="_2a6dc840ff6bc204ff53" data-testid="ArticleTools"><div class="_9f146e4c46884f388d0e"><button aria-describedby="articleToolsLoginTooltip" class="_13dba38c2689588db954 _7cd6d3a619318b4274cf" data-click-outside-ignore="true" data-testid="SaveArticle-button" type="button"><span class="_82522fbabfe2be1d6f63"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" class="dd6db77aa2c85e94be85" focusable="false" height="1em" aria-hidden="true" width="1em"><path stroke="#111" stroke-width="1.2" d="M6.607 5c0-.221.179-.4.4-.4H17c.22 0 .4.18.4.4v13.077a.4.4 0 0 1-.63.328l-3.851-2.702a1.6 1.6 0 0 0-1.838 0l-3.85 2.701a.4.4 0 0 1-.63-.328z"></path></svg></span><span 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It is that strong a business. Its founders chose to list via the backdoor at Sigma Healthcare because it was less expensive, included a value-accretive M<!-- -->&<!-- -->A deal, and the timing worked.</p><p>David Di Pilla’s DigiCo Infrastructure REIT is ripe for the times. Data centres are this year’s story of Australian deals – the biggest M<!-- -->&<!-- -->A deal (AirTrunk), biggest public markets raiser (NextDC), <a href="https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/australiansuper-s-new-2-2b-bet-pours-fuel-on-data-centres-blaze-20241016-p5kipj">biggest cheque by our biggest investor AustralianSuper (DataBank)</a> and now, by far the biggest IPO (five times more IPO money raised than any other float in three years).</p><div class="_398b6c5e39701f15a1a2">Loading...<figure></figure><figure></figure><figure></figure><figure></figure></div><div></div></div><div class="_2e1de52e69e1d969aea3"><div class="a368146c81ee0410b134"><span class="_1a6f5d6fad2874362309" data-testid="AuthorCard"><span><strong><a class="d1dba0c3091a3c30ebd6" data-testid="AuthorURL" href="/by/anthony-macdonald-j7gcx">Anthony Macdonald</a></strong> is a Chanticleer columnist. He is a former Street Talk co-editor and has 10 years' experience as a business journalist and worked at PwC, auditing and advising financial services companies.</span><span class="ebf04f7a6858148cabbd _449cf37f9ae646047903" data-testid="Author-Social"><span> <!-- -->Connect with <!-- -->Anthony<!-- --> on <a class="_86e1121a0a44d2d45f97" href="//twitter.com/amacfirst?lang=en" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.</span><span> <!-- -->Email <!-- -->Anthony<!-- --> at <a class="c5a5b7d2f686623f7687" href="mailto:a.macdonald@afr.com">a.macdonald@afr.com</a></span></span></span></div></div><div class="a3b28a4f67a674b57863" data-testid="ArticleFooter"><div class="_9e5858bb5e9aa47354b4"><div class="_9f146e4c46884f388d0e"><button aria-describedby="articleFooterLoginTooltip" class="_13dba38c2689588db954 _7cd6d3a619318b4274cf" data-click-outside-ignore="true" data-testid="SaveArticle-button" type="button"><span class="_82522fbabfe2be1d6f63"><svg 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services"],"categoryId":88,"asset":{"about":"If next year’s IPO contenders can tick these boxes, they’re a good chance of getting away. If not, they’ll try to use price to bridge the gap, which is never easy. ","allowComments":false,"body":"\u003Cp\u003EChemist Warehouse could have floated any year, in any IPO market conditions. It is that strong a business. Its founders chose to list via the backdoor at Sigma Healthcare because it was less expensive, included a value-accretive M&A deal, and the timing worked.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EDavid Di Pilla’s DigiCo Infrastructure REIT is ripe for the times. Data centres are this year’s story of Australian deals – the biggest M&A deal (AirTrunk), biggest public markets raiser (NextDC), \u003Cx-placeholder id=\"44997bb3b049036b54265300aded6f50def6cf01\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E and now, by far the biggest IPO (five times more IPO money raised than any other float in three years).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe year’s most \u003Cx-placeholder id=\"87ec25985cc970ba8f13d84a0894e8141b4e8712\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E – who could forget it? – had all the bells and whistles to make sure it would be a success. The deal was stitched up months before it launched, it had a deep-pocketed name backer waiting in the wings, its co-founder talked the pants off anyone who would listen and, most importantly, the business was headed in the right direction.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"3009f15c4684eae47c85a8137f4198d6e1d4b8e7\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe three companies – Chemist Warehouse, DigiCo and GyG – are very different. So were their paths to the ASX. However, they share some common features that will dictate how bankers and investors think about the IPO class of 2025, including (again) Virgin Australia’s long-awaited re-listing.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIf the IPO contenders can tick these boxes, they’re a good chance of getting away. If not, they’ll have to use price to make up the gap, which is never easy.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EFounders\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\u003Cp\u003EEvery IPO needs a face. It helps (a lot) if that face is someone who was also there on day one, has done just about every job inside the business and has the battle scars to prove it.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EInvestors don’t care if the founders are already rich – and the IPO is about trying to make them richer. They just want to know who they’re backing and who, when the proverbial hits the fan, will be leading the fightback.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"7c94759c611f660f2b3f9816ce3aa72768d126a1\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E. Chemist Warehouse has Jack and Sam Gance and Mario Verrocchi, who have worked together for 44 years and would stack shelves if required (as Verrocchi did a couple of years ago). DigiCo has dealmaker David Di Pilla – also a player in that Chemist Warehouse transaction – who spotted the data centre trend and put together a portfolio with the sole purpose of floating it.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"9217edd0e82be2561ffc8839b1c044828637d0d8\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E\u003Cp\u003ENone of them are perfect – but investors don’t expect them to be. They just want to know they’re the sort of people who respect shareholders’ money (that is arguably most founders’ best trait), can box their way out of a corner if required and will never give up trying to create value.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFor all the founder-bashing at Mineral Resources and WiseTech Global, \u003Cx-placeholder id=\"01d8a2dea9166982831cc0c0bd0491e0bb9e26ee\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E. Record share prices at Goodman Group, HMC Capital, SGH, Pro Medicus, REA Group (not quite a founder-run stock but close to it), Life360, Pinnacle Investment Management and Netwealth in the past week prove it.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EAlignment\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\u003Cp\u003EOne thing every founder brings is alignment. Invest alongside the founder and you get the chance to share in his or her returns.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe alignment at Chemist Warehouse, where its founders will own 49 per cent of the listed company, and GyG (9.6 per cent) is obvious.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAt DigiCo, a brand-new company, Di Pilla bought 800,000 shares in the IPO at the same price as everyone else – a $4 million cheque. The prospectus has him down for another 10 million shares (nearly 2 per cent of the company) by virtue of HMC Capital’s 13 per cent stake in the new company and his stake in HMC Capital (about 9 per cent).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EMost importantly, the bulk of these pre-IPO backers’ wealth will remain invested in the company at the IPO, and even locked up under escrow for a year or two. They have more incentive than any other investor to make sure the listing works.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Ch2\u003ELiquidity squeeze\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\u003Cp\u003ELike we said, there’s always a price and a market for a good business such as Chemist Warehouse, a hot sector such as the one DigiCo is in, or something spicy like GyG. But don’t underestimate how the deals were structured to try to stitch up secondary market buying on listing.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe key thing is index inclusion. The deals need to be big enough with enough free float to be eligible for index inclusion in the six or 12 months after listing, guaranteeing buying from the growing pile of index funds and forcing index-aware fund managers (there are a lot of them) to make a conscious decision to own the stock or not.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"de8a615aeee8e69a803ecc028da82de21d12d414\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESo, we are seeing companies thinking carefully about who is and who isn’t an escrowed investor. You want a big enough portion to restrict selling and tighten the free float, without making it so tight as to miss out on index inclusion.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAt GyG for example, only 54 per cent of the company – shares owned by the board, senior management, early backer TDM and adviser Barrenjoey Private Capital – were escrowed, even though pre-deal backers owned nearly 90 per cent of the business on listing.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAt Chemist Warehouse, it is only the founders’ combined 49 per cent stake – the 36.8 per cent owned by other Chemist Warehouse shareholders (including family members, store owners and franchisees) will count as free float. That all but guarantees Chemist Warehouse a quick trip into the large caps index, the ASX 100, and perhaps the ASX 50.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Ch2\u003ERetail hype\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\u003Cp\u003EA lot of value-minded domestic fund managers won’t buy banks so they’re hardly inclined to tip into a newly listed company at big market multiples at a time when the market is at a record high and expensive on an earnings basis.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThat makes IPOs harder – remember, passive funds don’t buy IPOs, nor do their cousins (index enhanced) or most quantitative models, which makes the domestic fund manager bid crucial.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003ERetail investors can make up for it, which has happened at DigiCo. The litany of brokers (13 – it’s quite a joke) reckon retail investors would’ve bought the IPO a few times over if they had the chance.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWe’re always sceptical of such claims – IPOs are almost always sold by retail brokers seeking their 1.5 per cent commission, not bought by investors scrambling for stock. If they want cheap stock, there are plenty of already-listed cheap stocks out there (including a stack that were IPOs in the past decade).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWhether it was retail broker-led or client-led, DigiCo pulled at retail’s heartstrings. Alvarez & Marsal’s industry growth charts early in the prospectus do the heavy lifting – data traffic to increase 24 per cent a year in the four years to 2027 and data centre demand from AI to surge 54.7 per cent in the same timeframe. It takes hockey stick forecasts to a whole new level.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003ELikewise, Chemist Warehouse’s owner-in-waiting Sigma Healthcare has had good support from retail broker networks – their customers understand the story.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EMargin and growth\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWhether you are talking about an IPO or listed stock, these things never go out of fashion.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAt GyG, it’s the 1000-store long-term target and the 30 new stores a year near-term target, which has investors valuing the company on its larger future footprint than what it’s selling today.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAt DigiCo, it is the aforementioned demand for data centre growth.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAt Chemist Warehouse (and while we await the scheme booklet which will reveal all), it is likely a similar new store rollout schedule and growth in its three offshore markets New Zealand, China and Ireland. Chemist Warehouse also has its industry-leading margins – $581.5 million earnings before interest and tax on $3.3 billion revenue in FY24.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"d4e72c639645d81cb27a053e1c37a595d3072267\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"f44a69722d12987e185cc3e114ebae511c6f169e\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E","bodyPlaceholders":{"01d8a2dea9166982831cc0c0bd0491e0bb9e26ee":{"data":{"newTab":false,"noFollow":false,"text":"investors still love a founder story","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.afr.com\u002Fchanticleer\u002Ffounder-problems-pull-the-other-one-founder-stocks-are-flying-20241126-p5ktnw"},"type":"linkExternal"},"3009f15c4684eae47c85a8137f4198d6e1d4b8e7":{"data":{"altText":"","aspect":0,"autoCrop":false,"caption":"Markets at record highs haven’t had the flood of floats bankers and the ASX were predicting. But deals can get done. 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