全国带钢市场周评（2021.7.9-7.16）-我的钢铁网

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style='color:#3861ab'>镀锌</a>带较上周也有不同幅度的上调。近期黑色系期货坚挺上行，在强预期弱现实下，价格被动拉涨，当前因下游周期补货，加之消息面影响，周尾成交放量，价格较为坚挺。</p> <p><strong>一、本周回顾</strong></p> <p><strong>【价格方面】</strong></p> <p>具体来看，2.5*232mm<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>热轧</a><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010108-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>带钢</a>平均价格为5876元/吨，较上周五平均价上调191元/吨。3.5*685mm热轧带钢平均价格为5856元/吨，较上周五平均价上调196元/吨。宽带价格较比窄带价格高。</p> <p>表1：全国主要城市价格汇总</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/07/19/112414.png" style="width: 600px; height: 167px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;">数据来源：<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a> <a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>我的钢铁网</a></p> <p><strong>【主要市场综述】</strong></p> <p>唐山355mm带钢：本周唐山热轧带钢价格震荡上涨，然整体成交多一般，低价成交为主。周中带钢市场资源含税价格最低5630元/吨，最高5750元/吨，截止目前，唐山355带钢市场资源含税价格5730元/吨。整体情况来看，下游<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010903-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>焊管</a>与355带钢几无差价，甚至低于带钢价格，利润倒挂情况严重，镀锌利润亦在成本线附近，终端需求难以支撑价格上涨，因此对原料盼降心态较强。无<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0207-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>锡</a>与唐山带钢价差进一步缩小，成交亦跟进不足，利润倒挂。供应面来看，目前仍有带钢轧线未恢复正常生产，整体带钢资源供应仍存缺口，尤其宽带资源。库存面来看，本周库存增量明显，主要由于带钢集中复产协议大量入库，库存整体偏高，但实际可流通资源仍偏紧。需求面，下游镀锌、焊管价格多被动跟涨，终端需求难以支撑价格的上涨，对带钢需求仍维持按订单采购，订单水平在7-15天左右。但心态上看，多数厂商对后期市场预期向好，虽成交不佳，但价格面仍以坚挺为主，预计下周带钢或震荡趋强。</p> <p>胜芳355mm带钢：截止目前胜芳热轧带钢稳中降10元/吨，325-406报5750-5760元/吨，685-885报5810-5820元/吨含税，成交多一般。本网监测的霸州镀锌带钢整体开工率 63.00%，周环比降3.00%，整体订单水平在7-15天左右，但由于宽带资源相对偏紧，下游镀锌带<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010107-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>型钢</a>料对原料需求急切，部分厂家由于原料供应不足有减产操作。山西、陕西、邯郸地区宽带流入胜芳地区，但客户反馈质量稳定性不如唐山带钢，整体对唐山带钢需求仍存，但终端需求跟进稍显乏力。终端需求整体一般，难有较大改善的情况下，供应面的支撑或成为价格坚挺的主要影响因素。预计下周胜芳带钢或震荡为主，不排除跟涨可能。</p> <p>天津带钢：本周天津地区热轧带钢市场价格大幅上调。截止发稿，天津地区热轧带钢市场2.5*360mm以下报价5720-5740元/吨，3.5*685mm以上报价5790-5800元/吨，较上周累涨210-250元/吨，均含税。<br /> 本周天津热轧带钢市场价格继续上调，但市场成交不畅。供应方面，前期唐山地区钢厂环保限产，带钢厂交货期明显延长，因此部分规格缺货。但下游管厂目前处于淡季，出货清淡，因此随着原料带钢持续上调，补货积极性较差。原料方面，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0307-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>钢坯</a>本周累涨140元/吨，现报5160元/吨，支撑热轧带钢市场价格。本周天津带钢库存为4.53万吨，较上周增加0.49万吨，库存水平依旧偏低。综上，预计下周天津热轧带钢市场价格或将震荡运行为主。</p> <p>宁波带钢：本周宁波热轧带钢价格趋强运行。截止收盘：德龙、宝泰、恒联等资源报价5860-5880元/吨，较上周五累涨190元/吨。本周黑色系期货继续高位震荡，加之国家出台相关政策利好大宗商品市场，市场心态提振，供应市场唐山热轧带钢市场价格持续上调，宁波地区热轧带钢价格被动跟涨。但宁波热轧带钢涨后成交不畅，下游目前仍处于淡季，订单本就不多，因此今日拿货消极，多观望市场为主。目前唐山地区热轧带钢整体市场供应仍然偏紧，因此市场供需矛盾较大，综上，预计下周宁波热轧带钢市场价格或将涨跌两难。</p> <p>无锡带钢：本周无锡市场带钢价格震荡下行。截止发稿，无锡带钢价格中天资源报价5390元/吨，德龙5360元/吨，周比降110元/吨。截止6月24日，无锡带钢库存周比增加0.5万吨至8.6万吨。本周无锡卷带库存均有大幅累积，下游需求加速萎缩，雨季成交放缓。厂商心态偏谨慎，预计下周市场弱势调整运行。</p> <p>西南地区带钢：目前市场成交转好，价格大幅上涨。目前玉溪新兴钢厂带钢产线不饱和生产，市场实际销售价格5500元/吨左右，较上周涨230元/吨，厂内库存2000吨。汇钢目前不饱和生产，厂内带钢库存为7000吨，销售不含税价格4250元/吨。当前钢厂不饱和生产，产量释放有限，后期资源到货情况一般。成交方面，本周市场价格大幅上涨，下游管厂需求表现尚可，终端采购积极性增强，成交情况转好，钢厂库存较上周继续下降。整体来看，短期市场处于供大于求的状态，预计下周西南带钢价格或将维持偏强运行。</p> <p><strong>【<a href="http://baike.sososteel.com/doc/view/68762.html" target="_blank">供给</a>方面】</strong></p> <p>Mysteel全国63家热轧带钢生产企业本周开工率 75.26%，周环比 +3.09%；月环比 +0.00%；产能利用率为 75.10%，周环比 +10.21%；月环比 -1.18%；本周钢厂实际产量为 181.60万吨，周环比 +24.69万吨；月环比 -2.86万吨；钢厂厂内库存为 26.11万吨，周环比 -0.15万吨；月环比 -6.66万吨。</p> <p><img alt="" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/07/16/182507.png" style="width: 600px; height: 372px;" /></p> <p>图1：全国热轧带钢产能利用率</p> <p>数据来源：Mysteel 我的钢铁网</p> <p><strong>【库存方面】</strong></p> <p>表2：全国带钢库存汇总</p> <p><img alt="" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/07/16/182608.png" style="width: 600px; height: 325px;" /></p> <p>数据来源：Mysteel 我的钢铁网</p> <p><strong>【需求方面】</strong></p> <p>从需求来看，本周价格波动不大，供应小幅减少，需求同步趋弱，供需双降格局下价格窄幅波动。</p> <p><img alt="" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/07/16/182622.png" style="width: 600px; height: 358px;" /></p> <p>图2：全国带钢表需</p> <p>数据来源：Mysteel 我的钢铁网</p> <p><strong>二、下周预测</strong></p> <p><strong>1、<a href="http://baike.sososteel.com/doc/view/68762.html" target="_blank">供给</a>来看：</strong>本周库存增量明显，唐山地区周同比增4万吨，由于带钢轧线集中复产导致协议量集中入库，但由于国企套保资源偏多，市场可流通资源仍少。</p> <p><strong>2、需求来看：</strong>本周胜芳镀锌带钢产能利用率整体周同比下降，胜芳地区宽规格型钢原料库存偏紧，部分轧线生产受影响。山西、陕西、邯郸地区宽带流入胜芳地区，但客户反馈质量稳定性不如唐山带钢，整体对唐山带钢需求仍存，但终端需求跟进稍显乏力。</p> <p><strong>3、心态方面：</strong>下半年供应预期减少，厂商多看好后市供应面的支撑。目前南北价差又陷入倒挂，乐从地区盈利成本线附近，无锡和唐山地区价格基本持平，价格倒挂严重，主要由于唐山地区带钢价格持续走高，成本抬升但终端需求跟不上。</p> <p>总的来看，下周带钢市场或震荡运行。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：李鑫 021-66896816 </br> 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