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<!doctype html><html lang="en"><head><title data-rh="true">Ukraine Update November 22. Fire, Roooobles, Two Ideas | by Dylan Combellick | Nov, 2024 | Medium</title><meta data-rh="true" charset="utf-8"/><meta data-rh="true" name="viewport" content="width=device-width,minimum-scale=1,initial-scale=1,maximum-scale=1"/><meta data-rh="true" name="theme-color" content="#000000"/><meta data-rh="true" name="twitter:app:name:iphone" content="Medium"/><meta data-rh="true" name="twitter:app:id:iphone" content="828256236"/><meta data-rh="true" property="al:ios:app_name" content="Medium"/><meta data-rh="true" property="al:ios:app_store_id" content="828256236"/><meta data-rh="true" property="al:android:package" content="com.medium.reader"/><meta data-rh="true" property="fb:app_id" content="542599432471018"/><meta data-rh="true" property="og:site_name" content="Medium"/><meta data-rh="true" property="og:type" content="article"/><meta data-rh="true" property="article:published_time" content="2024-11-22T11:24:48.123Z"/><meta data-rh="true" name="title" content="Ukraine Update November 22. 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Please keep it up. Comments ensure that more people see my articles.</p><h2 id="ee38" class="nt nu he bf nv nw nx dy ny nz oa ea ob ng oc od oe nk of og oh no oi oj ok ol bk">Two Points</h2><p id="fb23" class="pw-post-body-paragraph mx my he mz b hy om nb nc ib on ne nf ng oo ni nj nk op nm nn no oq nq nr ns gx bk">The recent ICBM/MRBM shots into Ukraine were not an escalation, but yet another demonstration of Russian weakness. There has been only one escalatory incident since 2022 — the full scale invasion itself. Everything following that was the West gradually adjusting to match Russia’s level of aggression. Russia ramped it up to nine on 24 Feb, 2022, and the West has gradually been adjusting towards that level, and is currently on about a three. Russia is terrified of the West reaching 4, much less matching Russian aggression at a 9. The White House is bending over backwards trying to say that the recent strikes were not escalatory, and in a strictly military sense, they were not. They were purely psychological, meant to scare weak men into surrendering. Shamefully, the West is run mostly by weak men. (It’s weird that all the Western female leaders (excluding Merkle, she retired) are on-point when it comes to Russia.).</p><p id="876f" class="pw-post-body-paragraph mx my he mz b hy na nb nc ib nd ne nf ng nh ni nj nk nl nm nn no np nq nr ns gx bk">The latest ICBM was not a departure from previous Russian attacks which have been going on since 2022 — it was in some ways a de-escalation. Kinzhal missiles can also be equipped with nuclear warheads, and are equipped with conventional warheads instead. The ICBM was launched <strong class="mz hf"><em class="or">without</em></strong> any explosives, just dummy kinetic impactors. There are unconfirmed reports of a second ICBM launch around 2pm…</p></div></div></div></div></section></div></div></article></div><div class="l"></div><footer class="os ot ou ov gw ab q ow ox c"><div class="l ae"><div class="ab cb"><div class="ci bh ga gb gc gd"><div class="ab cp oy"><div class="ab q kw"><div class="oz l"><span class="l pa pb pc e d"><div class="ab q kw kx"><div class="pw-multi-vote-icon fj gu ky kz la"><span><a class="af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at" data-testid="footerClapButton" rel="noopener follow" href="/m/signin?actionUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fmedium.com%2F_%2Fvote%2Fp%2F4793864c3492&amp;operation=register&amp;redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fmedium.com%2F%40dylan_combellick%2Fukraine-update-november-21-4793864c3492&amp;user=Dylan+Combellick&amp;userId=cbd2c86ad25f&amp;source=---footer_actions--4793864c3492---------------------clap_footer-----------"><div><div class="bm" aria-hidden="false"><div class="lb ao lc ld le lf am lg lh li la"><svg 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Please keep it up. Comments ensure that more people see my articles.","hasDropCap":null,"dropCapImage":null,"markups":[],"codeBlockMetadata":null,"iframe":null,"mixtapeMetadata":null},"Paragraph:0b9602622163_3":{"__typename":"Paragraph","id":"0b9602622163_3","name":"ee38","type":"H4","href":null,"layout":null,"metadata":null,"text":"Two Points","hasDropCap":null,"dropCapImage":null,"markups":[],"codeBlockMetadata":null,"iframe":null,"mixtapeMetadata":null},"Paragraph:0b9602622163_4":{"__typename":"Paragraph","id":"0b9602622163_4","name":"fb23","type":"P","href":null,"layout":null,"metadata":null,"text":"The recent ICBM\u002FMRBM shots into Ukraine were not an escalation, but yet another demonstration of Russian weakness. There has been only one escalatory incident since 2022 — the full scale invasion itself. Everything following that was the West gradually adjusting to match Russia’s level of aggression. 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