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particularly those of the minister who thought he had a good shot at the vice presidency.</p></header><section class="ae754da393b38cf0f618"><div class="d5dfe5984973a371f244"><section class="_368ce47922cc50406182" id="endOfArticle"><section class="_79ac355651a627afaf4b"><div class="_0744a0c2b755cec1309d"><span class="_4daa2b7c6a2abbd8337c"><span class="bad9c5476c04fb14be3e" data-testid="AuthorNames"><strong><a class="e8a3a96a1d96e42394a5" data-testid="AuthorURL" href="/by/emma-connors-h0yqhv">Emma Connors</a></strong></span><span class="_9d1c61c1b7efcc9b8f44">Senior editor and writer</span></span></div><section class="_288fb9f2c1f978e951fd"><div class="_4d22830be8e035459d36" data-testid="ArticleTimestamp"><time data-testid="ArticleTimestamp-time">Oct 27, 2023 – 5.26am</time></div><div class="_2a6dc840ff6bc204ff53" data-testid="ArticleTools"><div class="_9f146e4c46884f388d0e"><button aria-describedby="articleToolsLoginTooltip" class="_13dba38c2689588db954 _7cd6d3a619318b4274cf" 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href="https://subscribe.afr.com/?promote_channel=HI_AGFT_GNL_GIFTCTA&amp;utm_source=ArticleGifting&amp;utm_medium=HouseInventory&amp;utm_campaign=General&amp;utm_content=GiftCTA" class="f6dfc6f770f1c16f22f5">Subscribe now</a><p class="_1c7a5940e3812685c336">Already a subscriber?<!-- --> <button data-testid="Modal-login-button" type="button">Login</button></p></div></div></div></div></div></section></section><p>It all happened quickly. At the start of this month, Erick Thohir, Indonesia’s minister for state-owned enterprises – the government sector that powers a big chunk of the national economy – would have been justified in thinking he had a good shot at becoming Indonesia’s next vice president.</p><figure class="d11f6b024bb006f7e7c8 _69fae5931e8b349e5e1e _6f6db0aa612a03c039e8" data-pb-type="im"><picture><source media="(min-width: 1180px)" width="1100" height="734" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.131%2C$multiply_4%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/c_scale%2Cw_1100%2Cq_88%2Cf_auto/b8e18233b40c8ea00735ef4f2ff60130e7adedab, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.131%2C$multiply_4%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/c_scale%2Cw_2200%2Cq_52%2Cf_auto/b8e18233b40c8ea00735ef4f2ff60130e7adedab 2x" 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https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.131%2C$multiply_4%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/c_scale%2Cw_828%2Cq_52%2Cf_auto/b8e18233b40c8ea00735ef4f2ff60130e7adedab 2x" sizes="(max-width: 767px) 414px" data-id="b8e18233b40c8ea00735ef4f2ff60130e7adedab" data-pb-im-config="{&quot;aspectRatio&quot;:1.5,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;landscape3x2&quot;,&quot;width&quot;:414,&quot;urls&quot;:[&quot;https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.131%2C$multiply_4%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/c_scale%2Cw_414%2Cq_88%2Cf_auto/b8e18233b40c8ea00735ef4f2ff60130e7adedab&quot;,&quot; https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.131%2C$multiply_4%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/c_scale%2Cw_828%2Cq_52%2Cf_auto/b8e18233b40c8ea00735ef4f2ff60130e7adedab 2x&quot;]}" width="414" height="276"/></picture><figcaption class="_80bb118486236bcec2bc"><p>Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto (right) and his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the eldest son of President Joko Widodo, wave at the media after registering their candidacy in Jakarta on Wednesday.<!-- --> <cite class="_3c0c5a31e2deab9fe7b5">AP</cite></p></figcaption></figure><div class="_398b6c5e39701f15a1a2">Loading...<figure></figure><figure></figure><figure></figure><figure></figure></div><div></div></section><div class="a3b28a4f67a674b57863 _641fb672692d5313992a" data-testid="ArticleFooter"><div class="_9e5858bb5e9aa47354b4"><div class="_9f146e4c46884f388d0e"><button aria-describedby="articleFooterLoginTooltip" class="_13dba38c2689588db954 _7cd6d3a619318b4274cf" data-click-outside-ignore="true" data-testid="SaveArticle-button" type="button"><span class="_82522fbabfe2be1d6f63"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" class="dd6db77aa2c85e94be85" focusable="false" height="1em" aria-hidden="true" width="1em"><path stroke="#111" stroke-width="1.2" d="M6.607 5c0-.221.179-.4.4-.4H17c.22 0 .4.18.4.4v13.077a.4.4 0 0 1-.63.328l-3.851-2.702a1.6 1.6 0 0 0-1.838 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correspondent from October 2019 until mid-2023, based in Jakarta and Singapore. 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sudden entry of President Joko Widodo’s son into the election race has upset many plans – particularly those of the minister who thought he had a good shot at the vice presidency.","allowComments":false,"body":"\u003Cp\u003EIt all happened quickly. At the start of this month, Erick Thohir, Indonesia’s minister for state-owned enterprises – the government sector that powers a big chunk of the national economy – would have been justified in thinking he had a good shot at becoming Indonesia’s next vice president.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"a13afd63c8c349e3e60c9bf57b39a5ca9f22d003\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E\u003Cp\u003ETrue, Prabowo Subianto, the presidential candidate he was banking on as a running mate was behind in the polls. However, Prabowo had recently narrowed the gap between himself and the front-runner, Ganjar Pranowo. There was plenty of time to make up more ground before the February 14 election.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESo when speculation started to emerge that the Prabowo camp was considering 36-year-old Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the eldest son of President Joko Widodo, for vice president, Thohir must have been surprised. Especially as Gibran’s candidacy for the VP job was a technical impossibility, given a legal requirement the candidate had to be aged 40 or over.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThen came the news the country’s constitutional court was considering an application to change the rules. When it agreed on Monday to endorse a loophole that made the age requirement redundant, all of Indonesia knew Thohir had lost.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EJust two days later, Prabowo and Gibran made their first public appearance before officially lodging their candidacy for the two top jobs. In coming weeks, election season proper will get under way. Huge rallies that are more akin to rock concerts than political gatherings will take place in stadiums across the archipelago nation. In the 2019 election, more than 80 per cent of eligible voters turned out to the polls. Voting is not compulsory but it’s viewed as civic right to treasure rather than a chore.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIndonesia is the world’s third-largest democracy and a relatively recent one. Direct elections were hard won by the reformasi movement that followed the fall of authoritarian President Suharto in 1998 after three decades in power.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EGibran’s candidacy could be a make-or-break factor in next year’s poll. Will his father’s popularity as a retail politician rub off? Or will the opposing camps seek to turn \u003Cx-placeholder id=\"d5ca8d8808973b5c4f8e16ad67dcf1c1ddc40645\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E to the national stage as a negative?\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EErick Thohir, meanwhile, is considering his options. There is speculation he’s been offered a post in the Prabowo\u002FGibran campaign and is still considering whether to take it. Few have any doubt though he is having to adjust to losing. It’s not a feeling the entrepreneur, who founded a successful media group before entering politics five years ago – at Jokowi’s request – would be familiar with. Thohir, the one-time owner of the Italian soccer team Inter Milan, is used to coming out on top.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003ENow he’s been beaten to the punch by Gibran. The 36-year-old is mayor of Solo, a major city in Central Java, but seems to have only developed an interest in politics in the past couple of years.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EPerspectives change\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\u003Cp\u003EJust over two decades ago, when his father told his then teenaged son that he intended to go into politics, Gibran was seriously unimpressed.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIt was 2005 and Widodo, usually referred to as Jokowi, was set to run for mayor, also in Solo. That decision kicked off a political career that would see him twice elected president.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EGibran was not so keen. He told his father he did not want to be known as a son of an official. “I want to be Gibran only,” he said, as recounted in Ben Bland’s 2020 biography of Jokowi, \u003Cem\u003EMan of Contradictions\u003C\u002Fem\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESince then, however, his father has held the country’s highest office for a decade. Perspectives change. As Bland noted in his book, five out of the six other Indonesian presidents who have ruled since independence in 1945 have had offspring follow them into politics. Family dynasties are the norm, rather than the exception.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFrom this week on, Gibran will be known as the vice presidential candidate, sharing the ticket with Prabowo Subianto, the army general who Jokowi defeated twice for the top job. In 2019, Jokowi appointed Prabowo defence minister. This was seen at the time as a shrewd political play with Jokowi opting to keep his enemies close. Prabowo has proved to be an effective minister but even so, few could have predicted the president’s son would have joined Prabowo this year in what is likely to be the 72-year-old’s last run for president.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"b4fa311d6527da902c02d08f0289be8fd04a4ee3\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E\u003Cp\u003EOn Wednesday, Indonesians got their first look at how this might play out when Prabowo and Gibran made a joint appearance. Gibran made it clear he was going to appeal to younger voters, telling Millennials and Generation Zs that he believed “sustainability and consistency” were key to advancing towards a “Golden Indonesia”.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EJust how the campaign will go is anyone’s guess, says Bland, director of the Asia-Pacific programme at Chatham House in London.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIf none of the three presidential candidates manage to win 50 per cent of the vote, the two who perform best will face off again in June. Current polling suggests a run-off election is likely. So eight months of campaigning is likely to lie ahead.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThat’s a marathon, Bland points out, and “we don’t know how Gibran will perform on the national stage”. Still to come before the February polling date are two vice presidential debates, for example, where he will be facing off against more experienced candidates.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAnother key factor will be the actions of Megawati Soekarnoputri\u003Cem\u003E,\u003C\u002Fem\u003E daughter of Indonesia’s first president, a former president herself and long-time leader of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) party. The PDI-P is also Jokowi’s party – it backed him when he ran for mayor of Solo in 2005 and swung behind both his successful presidential election campaigns. Now, assuming Jokowi is full throttle behind his son, the PDI-P and the president are on a collision course.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn recent months, Jokowi’s younger son has become the chairman of another party which has prompted speculation the family may shift its allegiance from the PDI-P. Unless, that is, Megawati gets in first.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe PDI-P’s choice for president is Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo. Just how Megawati reacts to the president’s son joining the ticket backed by a rival party is yet to be seen.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"a8e6c97bdfb0c7d32c81b6447099c2274484aa9f\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIt could end badly. Earlier this week, Jakarta Post’s managing editor Kornelius Purba wrote that from Megawati’s perspective, Jokowi and Gibran have acted as if they are above the PDI-P that “launched them into the orbit of Indonesian politics.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cem\u003E \u003C\u002Fem\u003E “Jokowi and Gibran have intentionally wakened a sleeping tiger,” Purba wrote, warning the two men “will find the political dynasty they are building will crumble at her behest.”\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFinally, there is the vote itself. Some polls from the past couple of days show Gibran has pulled ahead. Others still have the Ganjar ticket ahead.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EDaryono, a 58-year-old meatball seller in Jakarta, is one of the nearly 200 million Indonesians who will vote on February 14 to elect the president and vice president. Like Jokowi and Gibran, Daryono is a native of Solo. He voted for Jokowi in each of the last two elections. This time around he will follow the PDI-P’s candidate Ganjar, and his running mate, Indonesia’s highly respected Mahfud MD.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EGibran was a good mayor, Daryono said. But not experienced enough for a national leadership position.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EEven those critical of the extent to which Indonesian elites dominate political office acknowledge the country’s elections are free and fair. 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