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Paul Parsons traces the story of how science foretold hell and high water...</p>","endSummary":null,"introduction":[[{"@type":"Content","@id":"/v5/.well-known/genid/7b0ebe7ccbcb080278e0","type":"html","data":{"value":"<p>Sandbags, severe flood warnings, mass evacuations – desperate measures as a three-metre-high wall of water bears down on a densely populated coastline. This isn’t fiction. Nor is it an account of tragic events far away in the Indian Ocean. This happened in November 2007 in England, when a huge storm surge welled in the North Sea then smashed into the country’s east coast.</p><p>On this occasion sea defences held fast and no one was injured. But a similar incident in 1953 left over 300 people dead. Climatologists now warn that extreme weather events such as this are set to get ever more common, as we start to feel the effects of global climate change.</p><p>There are other signs too. According to NASA, 2005 was the warmest year we’ve seen since records began. Malaria has been reported in Nairobi, Kenya as the city’s high altitude becomes warm enough for mosquitoes carrying the disease to survive there.</p><p>“There’s no question that we are seeing the effects of climate change already,” says Spencer Weart, director of the Center for History of Physics, at the American Institute of Physics, Maryland.</p><p>In February 2007, the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published an Assessment Report that concluded that the world will see a probable temperature rise of between 1.8 and 4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. “We know the last time the world was three degrees warmer for any long period of time, the sea level was six metres higher,” says Weart. That’s enough to submerge coastal cities from New York to Shanghai.</p><p>Piecing together the scientific evidence for climate change has been a long and difficult process. It has occupied thousands of bright minds for more than a century – and has been fraught with controversy and political intrigue.</p><p>The story began with the discovery, by French scientist Joseph Fourier, of what we now call the ‘greenhouse effect’. In 1824, Fourier calculated that the Earth was a lot warmer than it should be according to estimates based purely on its distance from the Sun. He surmised that the planet’s atmosphere must be slowing down the rate that the planet radiates heat away into space. Light from the Sun passes through the atmosphere to warm the land and oceans below, but the atmosphere prevents this heat escaping – just like the glass in a greenhouse.</p><p>In 1896, a Swedish chemist took the theory further. Svante Arrhenius noticed that the gas carbon dioxide (CO2) was especially good at trapping heat radiation. He soon realised what this meant: that the massive increases in atmospheric CO2, caused by coal burning during the industrial revolution, would fuel Fourier’s greenhouse effect and lead to global warming of the planet.</p><p>Far from triggering wide-scale panic, Arrhenius’s prediction was actually welcomed. During the late 19th century geologists had turned up evidence for what they perceived as a far greater climate menace. They discovered that the Earth’s prehistory had been punctuated by long periods of glaciation – when the planet’s surface froze over for hundreds of thousands of years at a time. Arrhenius had actually been investigating the greenhouse effect as a possible explanation of these ‘Ice Ages’. Instead, he stumbled upon a mechanism whereby human CO2 emissions could save us from a frosty fate. And it wasn’t the only benefit. Global warming could be advantageous to food production, bringing marginal lands into cultivation. “Vast land areas in the northern hemisphere could become good agricultural land if the weather warmed,” says Jack Meadows, a science historian at the University of Loughborough. “Canada and the eastern part of Russia was very much a wheat area then, but limited by the short growing season.”</p><p>But this was all still theoretical – hard evidence for the changing climate had yet to be seen. It’s true that, in the 15th century, Christopher Columbus had reported that there was less rainfall in the Canary Islands as the inhabitants cut the forest down. During the 17th and 18th centuries, northern Europe experienced an era of extreme cold when the River Thames would regularly freeze – known as the Little Ice Age.</p><ul><li><strong>Read more | <a href=\"https://www.historyextra.com/period/victorian/facts-history-weather-forecast-weatherman-tv/\">A history of the weather forecast</a></strong></li></ul><p>These were regional effects though. It wasn’t until later that the signs of climate change on a global scale began to surface. “In the 1930s older people began to say, ‘you kids have it easy – when I went to school there were blizzards, or the rivers froze,’” says Weart.</p><p>A British scientist by the name of Guy Callendar first gathered numerical data to support the anecdotes. In 1938, he published figures showing that between 1890 and 1935, the Earth had warmed by about half a degree Celsius. He pointed out that carbon dioxide levels had risen by ten per cent in this time, owing to the industrial revolution. It was the first solid scientific observation linking climate warming with human carbon emissions.</p><p>But nobody believed it. By this time, other research had suggested that the Earth’s oceans absorb excess carbon dioxide, and thus act as a natural brake on the greenhouse effect. At any rate, even Callendar believed that the warming effect would still be largely beneficial.</p><p>It wasn’t until 1957 that this thinking was overturned. Roger Revelle, at Scripps Institute of Oceanography in California, with his colleague Hans Seuss, showed that as an ocean absorbs CO2 it becomes more acidic. This radically limits the amount of carbon it can soak up.</p><h3 id=\"fears-become-fact-41861548\">Fears become fact</h3><p>Revelle also reasoned that human CO2 emissions must now be increasing exponentially. For not only was the world’s population doubling every few decades, but the carbon output per capita was itself doubling on the same timescale. His fears became fact just a year later, when Charles David Keeling, also at Scripps, began a careful programme of CO2 monitoring. He found the concentration of the gas to be 315 parts per million, compared with 280ppm in the pre-industrial 19th century. Continuing his measurements until 1961, Keeling charted an inexorable year-on-year rise.</p><p>The prevailing attitude of the time was to equate – without question – all human industry with progress. The work of Revelle and Keeling shook this philosophy. But the real body blow came from another quarter entirely: nuclear weapons. “People thought that bomb tests were causing earthquakes and droughts and floods. Fall-out was going around the world,” says Weart. “So human industry is not necessarily all progressive, and human beings can change the entire global environment.”</p><ul><li><strong>Read more | <a href=\"https://www.historyextra.com/period/20th-century/have-nuclear-weapons-helped-to-maintain-global-peace/\">Have nuclear weapons helped to maintain global peace?</a></strong></li></ul><p>This awareness – along with concerns over issues such as pollution and chemical pesticides – sparked the first glimmers of the environmental movement. Climate change now had a public voice. Scientists started to listen, and carried out research into its consequences. “By the late 1960s, you began to find scientists warning that global warming may very well be a danger,” says Weart.</p><p>So began a long and intense phase of climate research. The number of scientific papers published on the subject leapt from two or three a year to between 20 and 30. By 1977, there was a chorus of scientists calling for policy steps to curb carbon emissions. Otherwise, they warned, the world was going to get dramatically warmer in the 21st century, with potentially catastrophic results.</p><p>Controversy was also brewing though. The new research revealed just what an intricate system the climate really is – dependent on many, many variables, with no single ‘master key’ to unlock its behaviour. This led some scientists to doubt that human activity was the root cause of global warming. These ‘climate sceptics’ blamed natural factors, such as variations in the brightness of the Sun.</p><p>Nevertheless, the evidence for anthropogenic global warming continued to accumulate. Scientists found that it wasn’t just carbon dioxide that causes global warming, but also other gases given off by human activity, such as methane and nitrous oxide – a greenhouse gas 300 times more potent than CO2. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) made headlines. Used widely as refrigerator coolants and aerosol propellants (although now banned), they were up to 8,000 times as harmful as CO2. Worse still came the news that CFCs were ripping a hole in the Earth’s ozone layer – a protective blanket in the upper atmosphere that blocks harmful rays from the Sun.</p><p>The news enraged environmentalists, who stepped up their campaigning. In response, climate sceptics defended their position even more aggressively. The debate became a highly polarised, and sometimes even irrational stand-off.</p><p>There was only one way to break the stalemate: more cold, hard scientific research. “Over the last 20 years, the international scientific community has been carrying out research on many, many facets of the climate system,” says Alan Thorpe, chief executive of the UK’s Natural Environment Research Council. “Determining the cause of climate change has required improved understanding of many environmental factors, as well as improvements in our ability to model the climate system.”</p><p>That’s been achieved through massive advances in computer modelling. Increases in computing power have enabled basic models of the atmosphere, first formulated in the 1980s, to become vastly more realistic. They now accurately reflect the climate’s impact on land masses, oceans and ice sheets. The treatment of physical processes, such as atmospheric chemistry, has been greatly refined.</p><p>The results of this modelling have now all but ruled out natural processes as the chief cause of climate change. One study carried out last year by Mike Lockwood, of Rutherford Appleton Laboratories, near Oxford, examined the last 20 years’ worth of solar variations – one of the major factors cited by climate sceptics. Lockwood found that if the Sun was the main contributor to climate change then the planet should actually be getting cooler – in clear contradiction of the evidence. Consequently, the IPCC stated in its 2007 Assessment Report that the likelihood of global warming since the mid-20th century being caused mainly by human greenhouse gas emissions is now in excess of 90 per cent.</p><p>In 2006, the Stern Review of the economic impact of climate change was published. It found that the dollar cost of inactivity – and so suffering the consequences of global warming – grossly outweighed the cost of taking early action to stop it. Meanwhile, military commanders warned of the potential threat to national security posed by mass migrations of refugees from flood lands, and by conflicts over resources as starving nations went to war for food.</p><p>These strands came together to build a compelling case for governments to act. The Kyoto Protocol, capping carbon emissions, has now been ratified by 182 signatories – the notable exception being the United States. In 2009, world representatives are due to meet for talks in Copenhagen to finalise the terms of a new treaty that will replace Kyoto once it expires in 2012.</p><p>There’s still much to be done to avert environmental hell and high water. But understanding the science of global climate change could literally have saved the world. And it has achieved something else equally incredible – teaching national leaders to look beyond both their borders and short electoral terms. That’s got to be a good thing.</p>"}},{"@type":"Content","@id":"/v5/.well-known/genid/eb145b733ad575794bc6","type":"highlight-box","data":{"content":"<h4>Timeline of climate change warnings through history</h4><p><strong>1824 | </strong>French scientist Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier (1768–1830) predicts the greenhouse effect – in which the Earth's atmosphere traps heat and makes the planet warmer than it otherwise would be. <p>The French polymath is best known for the ‘Fourier series’ – a tool for breaking down complex mathematics into simpler forms – useful in physics, such as heat flow and wave theory, and in communications. It was Fourier who discovered the ‘greenhouse effect’.<p><strong>1896 | </strong>Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius (1859–1927) calculates that industrial carbon dioxide emissions will enhance the greenhouse effect, leading to global warming. He didn't know it had already begun.<p>This Swedish chemist was first to realise that human emissions of carbon dioxide could aggravate the greenhouse effect. Arrhenius was also an early proponent of ‘panspermia’ – the theory (now taken very seriously) that spores of life can drift between the planets.<p><strong>1938 | </strong>The first evidence for global warming is brought to light by British researcher Guy Stewart Callendar (1898–1964). He links rising temperatures with increasing carbon dioxide levels since 1850.<p>A steam engineer by profession, Callendar became intrigued by the impact of steam power, and other products of the industrial age, upon the environment. He was first to tally soaring temperatures since the mid-19th century with increasing carbon dioxide levels.<p><strong>1957 | </strong>Roger Revelle in the USA calculates that much less CO2 is absorbed by the Earth's oceans than originally thought, leaving a great deal to warm the planet.<p><strong>1958 | </strong>Charles David Keeling (1928–2005) begins careful measurements of atmospheric CO2 levels at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. In 1961 he publishes evidence for a relentless year-on-year rise.<p>Geochemist and oceanographer Keeling extended Callendar’s work into the modern age, charting the ongoing rise in atmospheric CO2. His graph became known as the ‘Keeling curve’. In 2002, he received the US National Medal of Science for his climate research.<p><strong>1967 | </strong>The first reliable computerised climate simulation yields grim predictions – doubling of carbon dioxide levels from pre-industrial times will raise the Earth's temperature by 2.3 degrees Celsius.<p><strong>1998 | </strong>American climatologists Michael Mann (1965–), Raymond Bradley and Malcolm Hughes publish the 'hockey stick' graph, showing a sharp upturn in global temperatures since the industrial revolution.<p>Mann led a team who put forward the ‘hockey stick’ graph. A key piece of evidence for anthropogenic global warming, it plotted northern hemisphere temperatures over the last 1,000 years, showing a sharp rise at the start of the 20th century.<p><strong>2007 | </strong>The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports that the likelihood of human carbon dioxide emissions being responsible for most observed climate warming is now over 90 per cent.","image":null,"hasBackdrop":true,"useCommercialTheme":false}},{"@type":"Content","@id":"/v5/.well-known/genid/cd0d70ed96a004db7b80","type":"html","data":{"value":"<h3 id=\"why-didnt-we-listen-ed0ae10a\">Why didn’t we listen?</h3><p><em><strong>For decades, the atomic bomb put climate change in the shade</strong></em></p><p>Global warming was initially seen as a good thing – it could stave off the next Ice Age, and open up more land for food production. That changed dramatically when the first computer simulations of the 21st-century climate threw up grim prognostications of soaring temperatures and rising sea levels. That was back in 1967. Why has it taken so long for the world to heed the warnings?</p><p>Firstly, the year 2000 seemed a long way away. Those who had lived through the first half of the 20th century had seen terrific short-term upheavals, including two world wars and economic catastrophe. By the Sixties, other very immediate threats to the planet had emerged – such as the Cold War and the <a href=\"https://www.historyextra.com/period/second-world-war/atomic-bomb-hiroshima-nagasaki-justified-us-debate-bombs-death-toll-japan-how-many-died-nuclear/\">atomic bomb</a>.</p><p>“It would be hard to expect anybody to take action until they saw changes on a timescale that was meaningful to them,” says Spencer Weart, director of the Center for History of Physics, at the American Institute of Physics, Maryland. “It was hard to imagine planning even two years ahead.” Scientists were listening, though. Come the 1970s, many were devoting serious research effort to climate change. The problem was that convincing governments to change tack on any scientific issue required scientific consensus. Yet the climate is complex – understanding it to the point where consensus could be reached was to take many years of research.</p><p>By the end of the 1990s most agreed it was more likely than not humans were to blame. At the same time, the end of the Cold War and increased international stability allowed environmental issues to rise up the public agenda. “People were now willing to plan 50 years ahead,” says Weart.</p><p>Under pressure from their electorates to take action, and with scientific evidence mounting, policy makers had little choice but to make fighting climate change a priority.</p><p><strong>Dr Paul Parsons was formerly editor of award-winning science and technology magazine Focus. His book, <em>The Science of Doctor Who</em>, was long-listed for the 2007 Royal Society Prize for Science Books</strong></p><p><strong><em>This article was first published in the </em><a href=\"https://www.historyextra.com/magazine-issue/october-2008/\"><em>October 2008 edition of BBC History Magazine</em></a></strong></p>"}}]],"promo":{"label":"Subscribe to BBC History Magazine today and pay £24.99 every 6 issues + FREE HistoryExtra and Academy access ","url":"https://www.buysubscriptions.com/print/bbc-history-magazine-subscription?promo=ES25BRA&utm_medium=brandsite&utm_source=historyextra.com&utm_campaign=ES25BRA&utm_content=promotional-link&style=brand","type":"promotional-link"},"userRatings":{"total":0,"isHalfStar":true},"isSaveable":true,"sponsor":null,"relatedItems":null,"plantOverview":null,"openWebSettings":null,"breadcrumbs":[{"label":"Home","url":"https://www.historyextra.com:443"},{"label":"Membership","url":"https://www.historyextra.com/membership/"},{"label":"A brief history of climate change warnings"}],"seoMetadata":{"title":"A brief history of climate change warnings","description":"Understanding the root cause of climate change took many decades of painstaking research. 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class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-one list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/people/elizabeth-i/" rel="" title="Elizabeth I" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Elizabeth I</span></a></li><li data-index="2.5" data-item-name="Queen Victoria" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-one list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/people/queen-victoria/" rel="" title="Queen Victoria" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Queen Victoria</span></a></li><li data-index="2.6" data-item-name="Winston Churchill" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-one list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/people/winston-churchill/" rel="" title="Winston Churchill" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Winston Churchill</span></a></li><li data-index="2.7" data-item-name="Cleopatra" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-one list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/people/cleopatra/" rel="" title="Cleopatra" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Cleopatra</span></a></li><li data-index="2.8" data-item-name="Napoleon Bonaparte" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-one main-nav__nav-item--has-children list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/people/napoleon-bonaparte/" rel="" title="Napoleon Bonaparte" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" aria-haspopup="true" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Napoleon Bonaparte</span><i class="main-nav__nav-icon icon" style="width:12px;min-width:12px;height:12px;min-height:12px;animation-duration:1000ms"><svg class="icon__svg" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" style="color:inherit;fill:inherit"><use 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role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/people/" rel="" title="Browse all people" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Browse all people</span></a></li></ul></div></li></ul></div></li><li data-index="3" data-item-name="Topics" data-component="MenuLink" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--has-children list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/topic/" rel="" title="Topics" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" aria-haspopup="true" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Topics</span><i class="main-nav__nav-icon icon" style="width:12px;min-width:12px;height:12px;min-height:12px;animation-duration:1000ms"><svg class="icon__svg" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" style="color:inherit;fill:inherit"><use xlink:href="/static/icons/base/sprite-maps/arrows-71cd4ec91a6536f2abcc71183b8f0de8.svg#caret"></use></svg></i></a><div class="main-nav__sub-menu main-nav__mega-menu main-nav__mega-menu--cols-2"><ul role="menu" class="main-nav__list list"><li data-item-name="Main menu" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-one main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--back list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><i class="main-nav__nav-icon icon" style="width:12px;min-width:12px;height:12px;min-height:12px;animation-duration:1000ms"><svg class="icon__svg" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" style="color:inherit;fill:inherit"><use xlink:href="/static/icons/base/sprite-maps/arrows-71cd4ec91a6536f2abcc71183b8f0de8.svg#caret"></use></svg></i><span class="sr-only">Back to </span><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Main menu</span></a></li><li data-index="3.1" data-item-name="Kings and queens" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-one list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/topic/kings-and-queens/" rel="" title="Kings and queens" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Kings and queens</span></a></li><li data-index="3.2" data-item-name="Weird and wonderful" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-one list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/topic/weird-wonderful-history/" rel="" title="Weird and wonderful" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Weird and wonderful</span></a></li><li data-index="3.3" data-item-name="Sex and love" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-one list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/topic/sex-and-love/" rel="" title="Sex and love" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Sex and love</span></a></li><li data-index="3.4" data-item-name="Social history" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-one list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/topic/social-history/" rel="" title="Social history" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Social history</span></a></li><li data-index="3.5" data-item-name="Religious history" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-one list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/topic/religion/" rel="" title="Religious history" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Religious history</span></a></li><li data-index="3.6" data-item-name="Women's history" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-one list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/womens-history/" rel="" title="Women's history" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Women's history</span></a></li><li data-index="3.7" data-item-name="Historical Q&As" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-one list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/content-classification/qa/" rel="" title="Historical Q&As" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Historical Q&As</span></a></li><li data-index="3.8" data-item-name="Heritage visits" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-one list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/topic/heritage-visits/" rel="" title="Heritage visits" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Heritage visits</span></a></li><li data-index="3.9" data-item-name="History hero" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-one list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/tag/my-history-hero/" rel="" title="History hero" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">History hero</span></a></li><li data-index="3.10" data-item-name="Historical recipes" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-one list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/tag/recipes/" rel="" title="Historical recipes" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Historical recipes</span></a></li><li data-index="3.11" data-item-name="Turning points in British History" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-one main-nav__nav-item--has-children list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/topic/turning-points-british-history-series/" rel="" title="Turning points in British History" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" aria-haspopup="true" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Turning points in British History</span><i class="main-nav__nav-icon icon" style="width:12px;min-width:12px;height:12px;min-height:12px;animation-duration:1000ms"><svg class="icon__svg" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" style="color:inherit;fill:inherit"><use xlink:href="/static/icons/base/sprite-maps/arrows-71cd4ec91a6536f2abcc71183b8f0de8.svg#caret"></use></svg></i></a><div class="main-nav__sub-menu"><ul role="menu" class="main-nav__list list"><li data-item-name="Topics" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-two main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--back list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><i class="main-nav__nav-icon icon" style="width:12px;min-width:12px;height:12px;min-height:12px;animation-duration:1000ms"><svg class="icon__svg" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" style="color:inherit;fill:inherit"><use xlink:href="/static/icons/base/sprite-maps/arrows-71cd4ec91a6536f2abcc71183b8f0de8.svg#caret"></use></svg></i><span class="sr-only">Back to </span><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Topics</span></a></li><li data-index="3.11.1" data-item-name="Browse all topics" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-two list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/topic/" rel="" title="Browse all topics" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Browse all topics</span></a></li></ul></div></li></ul></div></li><li data-index="4" data-item-name="Video" data-component="MenuLink" class="main-nav__nav-item list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/video/" rel="" title="Video" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Video</span></a></li><li data-index="5" data-item-name="Podcast" data-component="MenuLink" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--has-children list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/podcast/" rel="" title="Podcast" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" aria-haspopup="true" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Podcast</span><i class="main-nav__nav-icon icon" style="width:12px;min-width:12px;height:12px;min-height:12px;animation-duration:1000ms"><svg class="icon__svg" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" style="color:inherit;fill:inherit"><use xlink:href="/static/icons/base/sprite-maps/arrows-71cd4ec91a6536f2abcc71183b8f0de8.svg#caret"></use></svg></i></a><div class="main-nav__sub-menu main-nav__mega-menu main-nav__mega-menu--cols-1"><ul role="menu" class="main-nav__list list"><li data-item-name="Main menu" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-one main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--back list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><i class="main-nav__nav-icon icon" style="width:12px;min-width:12px;height:12px;min-height:12px;animation-duration:1000ms"><svg class="icon__svg" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" style="color:inherit;fill:inherit"><use 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data-item-name="Membership" data-component-variant="Wildcard" data-component="MenuLink" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--has-children main-nav__nav-item--wildcard-2 list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/membership/" rel="" title="Membership" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" aria-haspopup="true" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Membership</span><i class="main-nav__nav-icon icon" style="width:12px;min-width:12px;height:12px;min-height:12px;animation-duration:1000ms"><svg class="icon__svg" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" style="color:inherit;fill:inherit"><use xlink:href="/static/icons/base/sprite-maps/arrows-71cd4ec91a6536f2abcc71183b8f0de8.svg#caret"></use></svg></i></a><div class="main-nav__sub-menu main-nav__mega-menu main-nav__mega-menu--cols-2"><ul role="menu" class="main-nav__list list"><li data-item-name="Main menu" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-one main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--back list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><i class="main-nav__nav-icon icon" style="width:12px;min-width:12px;height:12px;min-height:12px;animation-duration:1000ms"><svg class="icon__svg" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" style="color:inherit;fill:inherit"><use xlink:href="/static/icons/base/sprite-maps/arrows-71cd4ec91a6536f2abcc71183b8f0de8.svg#caret"></use></svg></i><span class="sr-only">Back to </span><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Main menu</span></a></li><li data-index="7.1" data-item-name="Membership area" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-one main-nav__nav-item--has-children list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/membership/" rel="" title="Membership area" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" aria-haspopup="true" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Membership area</span><i class="main-nav__nav-icon icon" style="width:12px;min-width:12px;height:12px;min-height:12px;animation-duration:1000ms"><svg class="icon__svg" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" style="color:inherit;fill:inherit"><use xlink:href="/static/icons/base/sprite-maps/arrows-71cd4ec91a6536f2abcc71183b8f0de8.svg#caret"></use></svg></i></a><div class="main-nav__sub-menu"><ul role="menu" class="main-nav__list list"><li data-item-name="Membership" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-two main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--back list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><i class="main-nav__nav-icon icon" style="width:12px;min-width:12px;height:12px;min-height:12px;animation-duration:1000ms"><svg class="icon__svg" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" style="color:inherit;fill:inherit"><use xlink:href="/static/icons/base/sprite-maps/arrows-71cd4ec91a6536f2abcc71183b8f0de8.svg#caret"></use></svg></i><span class="sr-only">Back to </span><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Membership</span></a></li><li data-index="7.1.1" data-item-name="Member discounts" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-two list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/membership/membership-discounts/" rel="" title="Member discounts" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Member discounts</span></a></li></ul></div></li><li data-index="7.2" data-item-name="Join HistoryExtra" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-one list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="https://www.historyextra.com/join" rel="" title="Join HistoryExtra" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Join HistoryExtra</span></a></li><li data-index="7.3" data-item-name="BBC History Mag" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-one list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/bbc-history-magazine/" rel="" title="BBC History Mag" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">BBC History Mag</span></a></li><li data-index="7.4" data-item-name="Academy" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-one main-nav__nav-item--has-children list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/academy/" rel="" title="Academy" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" aria-haspopup="true" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Academy</span><i class="main-nav__nav-icon icon" style="width:12px;min-width:12px;height:12px;min-height:12px;animation-duration:1000ms"><svg class="icon__svg" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" style="color:inherit;fill:inherit"><use xlink:href="/static/icons/base/sprite-maps/arrows-71cd4ec91a6536f2abcc71183b8f0de8.svg#caret"></use></svg></i></a><div class="main-nav__sub-menu"><ul role="menu" class="main-nav__list list"><li data-item-name="Membership" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-two main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--back list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><i class="main-nav__nav-icon icon" style="width:12px;min-width:12px;height:12px;min-height:12px;animation-duration:1000ms"><svg class="icon__svg" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" style="color:inherit;fill:inherit"><use xlink:href="/static/icons/base/sprite-maps/arrows-71cd4ec91a6536f2abcc71183b8f0de8.svg#caret"></use></svg></i><span class="sr-only">Back to </span><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Membership</span></a></li><li data-index="7.4.1" data-item-name="Nazi Germany" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-two list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/academy/nazigermany" rel="" title="Nazi Germany" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Nazi Germany</span></a></li><li data-index="7.4.2" data-item-name="Victorian Life with Ruth Goodman" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-two list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/academy/victorian-life" rel="" title="Victorian Life with Ruth Goodman" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Victorian Life with Ruth Goodman</span></a></li><li data-index="7.4.3" data-item-name="Late-medieval England course" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-two list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" href="/academy/medieval-course/" rel="" title="Late-medieval England course" tabindex="-1" role="menuitem" data-component="Link"><span class="main-nav__nav-text">Late-medieval England course</span></a></li><li data-index="7.4.4" data-item-name="Roman Britain course" class="main-nav__nav-item main-nav__nav-item--tier-two list-item" role="presentation"><a class="link main-nav__nav-link" 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Paul Parsons traces the story of how science foretold hell and high water...</p></div><div class="post-header__image-container mt-sm"><div class="p-relative"><div class="image chromatic-ignore post-header-image image--fluid image--scaled-up"><div class="image__container"><picture class="image__picture" width="980" height="653.6600000000001"><source type="image/webp" sizes="(min-width: 992px) 980px,(min-width: 768px) 748px,(min-width: 544px) 556px,calc(100vw - 20px)" srcSet="https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/10/GettyImages-464415565-8a99ca0.jpg?quality=90&webp=true&resize=300,200 300w,https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/10/GettyImages-464415565-8a99ca0.jpg?quality=90&webp=true&resize=400,267 400w,https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/10/GettyImages-464415565-8a99ca0.jpg?quality=90&webp=true&resize=550,367 550w,https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/10/GettyImages-464415565-8a99ca0.jpg?quality=90&webp=true&resize=750,500 750w,https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/10/GettyImages-464415565-8a99ca0.jpg?quality=90&webp=true&resize=1000,667 1000w,https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/10/GettyImages-464415565-8a99ca0.jpg?quality=90&webp=true&resize=1200,800 1200w,https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/10/GettyImages-464415565-8a99ca0.jpg?quality=90&webp=true&resize=1500,1001 1500w,https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/10/GettyImages-464415565-8a99ca0.jpg?quality=90&webp=true&resize=1750,1167 1750w,https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/10/GettyImages-464415565-8a99ca0.jpg?quality=90&webp=true&resize=2250,1501 2250w,https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/10/GettyImages-464415565-8a99ca0.jpg?quality=90&webp=true&resize=2750,1834 2750w,https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/10/GettyImages-464415565-8a99ca0.jpg?quality=90&webp=true&resize=2944,1964 2944w"/><source sizes="(min-width: 992px) 980px,(min-width: 768px) 748px,(min-width: 544px) 556px,calc(100vw - 20px)" srcSet="https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/10/GettyImages-464415565-8a99ca0.jpg?quality=90&resize=300,200 300w,https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/10/GettyImages-464415565-8a99ca0.jpg?quality=90&resize=400,267 400w,https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/10/GettyImages-464415565-8a99ca0.jpg?quality=90&resize=550,367 550w,https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/10/GettyImages-464415565-8a99ca0.jpg?quality=90&resize=750,500 750w,https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/10/GettyImages-464415565-8a99ca0.jpg?quality=90&resize=1000,667 1000w,https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/10/GettyImages-464415565-8a99ca0.jpg?quality=90&resize=1200,800 1200w,https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/10/GettyImages-464415565-8a99ca0.jpg?quality=90&resize=1500,1001 1500w,https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/10/GettyImages-464415565-8a99ca0.jpg?quality=90&resize=1750,1167 1750w,https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/10/GettyImages-464415565-8a99ca0.jpg?quality=90&resize=2250,1501 2250w,https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/10/GettyImages-464415565-8a99ca0.jpg?quality=90&resize=2750,1834 2750w,https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/10/GettyImages-464415565-8a99ca0.jpg?quality=90&resize=2944,1964 2944w"/><img class="image__img" src="https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/10/GettyImages-464415565-8a99ca0.jpg?quality=90&resize=980,654" alt="A group of skaters on a frozen-over backwater of the River Thames at Abingdon, 1895. (Photo by English Heritage/Heritage Images/Getty Images)" data-item-name="A group of skaters on a frozen-over backwater of the River Thames at Abingdon, 1895. (Photo by English Heritage/Heritage Images/Getty Images)" title="A group of skaters on a frozen-over backwater of the River Thames at Abingdon, 1895. 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of you&body=I found this article on HistoryExtra.com and thought you might be interested:%0A%0Ahttps://www.historyextra.com/membership/climate-change-warnings-history/" rel="nofollow noopener" data-component="Link"><div class="icon-stack social-share__icon icon-stack--vertical-align" style="height:30px;width:30px"><span class="sr-only">Email to a friend</span><div class="icon-stack__icon" style="z-index:2"><i class="icon" style="width:16px;min-width:16px;height:16px;min-height:16px;animation-duration:1000ms"><svg class="icon__svg" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" style="color:rgba(249, 249, 249, 1);fill:rgba(249, 249, 249, 1)"><use xlink:href="/static/icons/base/sprite-maps/social-71cd4ec91a6536f2abcc71183b8f0de8.svg#email"></use></svg></i></div><div class="icon-stack__icon" style="z-index:1"><i class="icon" style="width:30px;min-width:30px;height:30px;min-height:30px;animation-duration:1000ms"><svg class="icon__svg" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" style="color:rgba(214, 61, 43, 1);fill:rgba(214, 61, 43, 1)"><use xlink:href="/static/icons/base/sprite-maps/shapes-71cd4ec91a6536f2abcc71183b8f0de8.svg#circle"></use></svg></i></div></div></a></li></ul></div></div></section><div class="post__content"><div class="editor-content mb-lg hidden-print js-piano-preview-content" data-placement="Body"><div><p>Sandbags, severe flood warnings, mass evacuations – desperate measures as a three-metre-high wall of water bears down on a densely populated coastline. This isn’t fiction. Nor is it an account of tragic events far away in the Indian Ocean. This happened in November 2007 in England, when a huge storm surge welled in the North Sea then smashed into the country’s east coast.</p><div class="ad-slot hidden-print hidden-for-md hidden-for-lg"><div class="ad-slot__container"><div class="ad-slot__text body-copy-small pt-xs pb-xs chromatic-ignore">Ad</div><div id="article--inline--1" class="ad-unit"></div></div><div><script>(window.adq = window.adq || []).push((api) => api.addSlot({"key":"inline","index":"1","searchTerm":null,"fullSearchTerm":null}));</script></div></div><p>On this occasion sea defences held fast and no one was injured. But a similar incident in 1953 left over 300 people dead. Climatologists now warn that extreme weather events such as this are set to get ever more common, as we start to feel the effects of global climate change.</p></div></div><div class="piano-inline-template"></div><div class="editor-content mb-lg hidden-print js-piano-locked-content" data-placement="Body"><div><div class="ad-placement" data-count="277" data-paragraphs-left="32"></div><p>There are other signs too. According to NASA, 2005 was the warmest year we’ve seen since records began. Malaria has been reported in Nairobi, Kenya as the city’s high altitude becomes warm enough for mosquitoes carrying the disease to survive there.</p><div class="ad-placement-inline--2"></div><p>“There’s no question that we are seeing the effects of climate change already,” says Spencer Weart, director of the Center for History of Physics, at the American Institute of Physics, Maryland.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="720" data-paragraphs-left="30"></div><p>In February 2007, the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published an Assessment Report that concluded that the world will see a probable temperature rise of between 1.8 and 4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. “We know the last time the world was three degrees warmer for any long period of time, the sea level was six metres higher,” says Weart. That’s enough to submerge coastal cities from New York to Shanghai.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="1158" data-paragraphs-left="29"></div><p>Piecing together the scientific evidence for climate change has been a long and difficult process. It has occupied thousands of bright minds for more than a century – and has been fraught with controversy and political intrigue.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="1386" data-paragraphs-left="28"></div><p>The story began with the discovery, by French scientist Joseph Fourier, of what we now call the ‘greenhouse effect’. In 1824, Fourier calculated that the Earth was a lot warmer than it should be according to estimates based purely on its distance from the Sun. He surmised that the planet’s atmosphere must be slowing down the rate that the planet radiates heat away into space. Light from the Sun passes through the atmosphere to warm the land and oceans below, but the atmosphere prevents this heat escaping – just like the glass in a greenhouse.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="1934" data-paragraphs-left="27"></div><p>In 1896, a Swedish chemist took the theory further. Svante Arrhenius noticed that the gas carbon dioxide (CO2) was especially good at trapping heat radiation. He soon realised what this meant: that the massive increases in atmospheric CO2, caused by coal burning during the industrial revolution, would fuel Fourier’s greenhouse effect and lead to global warming of the planet.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="2311" data-paragraphs-left="26"></div><p>Far from triggering wide-scale panic, Arrhenius’s prediction was actually welcomed. During the late 19th century geologists had turned up evidence for what they perceived as a far greater climate menace. They discovered that the Earth’s prehistory had been punctuated by long periods of glaciation – when the planet’s surface froze over for hundreds of thousands of years at a time. Arrhenius had actually been investigating the greenhouse effect as a possible explanation of these ‘Ice Ages’. Instead, he stumbled upon a mechanism whereby human CO2 emissions could save us from a frosty fate. And it wasn’t the only benefit. Global warming could be advantageous to food production, bringing marginal lands into cultivation. “Vast land areas in the northern hemisphere could become good agricultural land if the weather warmed,” says Jack Meadows, a science historian at the University of Loughborough. “Canada and the eastern part of Russia was very much a wheat area then, but limited by the short growing season.”</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="3327" data-paragraphs-left="25"></div><p>But this was all still theoretical – hard evidence for the changing climate had yet to be seen. It’s true that, in the 15th century, Christopher Columbus had reported that there was less rainfall in the Canary Islands as the inhabitants cut the forest down. During the 17th and 18th centuries, northern Europe experienced an era of extreme cold when the River Thames would regularly freeze – known as the Little Ice Age.</p><ul><li><strong>Read more | <a href="https://www.historyextra.com/period/victorian/facts-history-weather-forecast-weatherman-tv/">A history of the weather forecast</a></strong></li></ul><div class="ad-placement" data-count="3747" data-paragraphs-left="24"></div><p>These were regional effects though. It wasn’t until later that the signs of climate change on a global scale began to surface. “In the 1930s older people began to say, ‘you kids have it easy – when I went to school there were blizzards, or the rivers froze,’” says Weart.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="4018" data-paragraphs-left="23"></div><p>A British scientist by the name of Guy Callendar first gathered numerical data to support the anecdotes. In 1938, he published figures showing that between 1890 and 1935, the Earth had warmed by about half a degree Celsius. He pointed out that carbon dioxide levels had risen by ten per cent in this time, owing to the industrial revolution. It was the first solid scientific observation linking climate warming with human carbon emissions.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="4458" data-paragraphs-left="22"></div><p>But nobody believed it. By this time, other research had suggested that the Earth’s oceans absorb excess carbon dioxide, and thus act as a natural brake on the greenhouse effect. At any rate, even Callendar believed that the warming effect would still be largely beneficial.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="4732" data-paragraphs-left="21"></div><p>It wasn’t until 1957 that this thinking was overturned. Roger Revelle, at Scripps Institute of Oceanography in California, with his colleague Hans Seuss, showed that as an ocean absorbs CO2 it becomes more acidic. This radically limits the amount of carbon it can soak up.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="5004" data-paragraphs-left="20"></div><h3 id="fears-become-fact-41861548">Fears become fact</h3><p>Revelle also reasoned that human CO2 emissions must now be increasing exponentially. For not only was the world’s population doubling every few decades, but the carbon output per capita was itself doubling on the same timescale. His fears became fact just a year later, when Charles David Keeling, also at Scripps, began a careful programme of CO2 monitoring. He found the concentration of the gas to be 315 parts per million, compared with 280ppm in the pre-industrial 19th century. Continuing his measurements until 1961, Keeling charted an inexorable year-on-year rise.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="5576" data-paragraphs-left="19"></div><p>The prevailing attitude of the time was to equate – without question – all human industry with progress. The work of Revelle and Keeling shook this philosophy. But the real body blow came from another quarter entirely: nuclear weapons. “People thought that bomb tests were causing earthquakes and droughts and floods. Fall-out was going around the world,” says Weart. “So human industry is not necessarily all progressive, and human beings can change the entire global environment.”</p><ul><li><strong>Read more | <a href="https://www.historyextra.com/period/20th-century/have-nuclear-weapons-helped-to-maintain-global-peace/">Have nuclear weapons helped to maintain global peace?</a></strong></li></ul><div class="ad-placement" data-count="6058" data-paragraphs-left="18"></div><p>This awareness – along with concerns over issues such as pollution and chemical pesticides – sparked the first glimmers of the environmental movement. Climate change now had a public voice. Scientists started to listen, and carried out research into its consequences. “By the late 1960s, you began to find scientists warning that global warming may very well be a danger,” says Weart.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="6442" data-paragraphs-left="17"></div><p>So began a long and intense phase of climate research. The number of scientific papers published on the subject leapt from two or three a year to between 20 and 30. By 1977, there was a chorus of scientists calling for policy steps to curb carbon emissions. Otherwise, they warned, the world was going to get dramatically warmer in the 21st century, with potentially catastrophic results.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="6830" data-paragraphs-left="16"></div><p>Controversy was also brewing though. The new research revealed just what an intricate system the climate really is – dependent on many, many variables, with no single ‘master key’ to unlock its behaviour. This led some scientists to doubt that human activity was the root cause of global warming. These ‘climate sceptics’ blamed natural factors, such as variations in the brightness of the Sun.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="7224" data-paragraphs-left="15"></div><p>Nevertheless, the evidence for anthropogenic global warming continued to accumulate. Scientists found that it wasn’t just carbon dioxide that causes global warming, but also other gases given off by human activity, such as methane and nitrous oxide – a greenhouse gas 300 times more potent than CO2. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) made headlines. Used widely as refrigerator coolants and aerosol propellants (although now banned), they were up to 8,000 times as harmful as CO2. Worse still came the news that CFCs were ripping a hole in the Earth’s ozone layer – a protective blanket in the upper atmosphere that blocks harmful rays from the Sun.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="7866" data-paragraphs-left="14"></div><p>The news enraged environmentalists, who stepped up their campaigning. In response, climate sceptics defended their position even more aggressively. The debate became a highly polarised, and sometimes even irrational stand-off.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="8092" data-paragraphs-left="13"></div><p>There was only one way to break the stalemate: more cold, hard scientific research. “Over the last 20 years, the international scientific community has been carrying out research on many, many facets of the climate system,” says Alan Thorpe, chief executive of the UK’s Natural Environment Research Council. “Determining the cause of climate change has required improved understanding of many environmental factors, as well as improvements in our ability to model the climate system.”</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="8576" data-paragraphs-left="12"></div><p>That’s been achieved through massive advances in computer modelling. Increases in computing power have enabled basic models of the atmosphere, first formulated in the 1980s, to become vastly more realistic. They now accurately reflect the climate’s impact on land masses, oceans and ice sheets. The treatment of physical processes, such as atmospheric chemistry, has been greatly refined.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="8964" data-paragraphs-left="11"></div><p>The results of this modelling have now all but ruled out natural processes as the chief cause of climate change. One study carried out last year by Mike Lockwood, of Rutherford Appleton Laboratories, near Oxford, examined the last 20 years’ worth of solar variations – one of the major factors cited by climate sceptics. Lockwood found that if the Sun was the main contributor to climate change then the planet should actually be getting cooler – in clear contradiction of the evidence. Consequently, the IPCC stated in its 2007 Assessment Report that the likelihood of global warming since the mid-20th century being caused mainly by human greenhouse gas emissions is now in excess of 90 per cent.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="9662" data-paragraphs-left="10"></div><p>In 2006, the Stern Review of the economic impact of climate change was published. It found that the dollar cost of inactivity – and so suffering the consequences of global warming – grossly outweighed the cost of taking early action to stop it. Meanwhile, military commanders warned of the potential threat to national security posed by mass migrations of refugees from flood lands, and by conflicts over resources as starving nations went to war for food.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="10118" data-paragraphs-left="9"></div><p>These strands came together to build a compelling case for governments to act. The Kyoto Protocol, capping carbon emissions, has now been ratified by 182 signatories – the notable exception being the United States. In 2009, world representatives are due to meet for talks in Copenhagen to finalise the terms of a new treaty that will replace Kyoto once it expires in 2012.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="10490" data-paragraphs-left="8"></div><p>There’s still much to be done to avert environmental hell and high water. But understanding the science of global climate change could literally have saved the world. And it has achieved something else equally incredible – teaching national leaders to look beyond both their borders and short electoral terms. That’s got to be a good thing.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="10830" data-paragraphs-left="7"></div><section class="highlight-box highlight-box--backdrop" data-feature="Highlight Box" data-feature-variant="editorial"><div class="highlight-box__content editor-content"><h4>Timeline of climate change warnings through history</h4><p><strong>1824 | </strong>French scientist Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier (1768–1830) predicts the greenhouse effect – in which the Earth's atmosphere traps heat and makes the planet warmer than it otherwise would be. <p>The French polymath is best known for the ‘Fourier series’ – a tool for breaking down complex mathematics into simpler forms – useful in physics, such as heat flow and wave theory, and in communications. It was Fourier who discovered the ‘greenhouse effect’.<p><strong>1896 | </strong>Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius (1859–1927) calculates that industrial carbon dioxide emissions will enhance the greenhouse effect, leading to global warming. He didn't know it had already begun.<p>This Swedish chemist was first to realise that human emissions of carbon dioxide could aggravate the greenhouse effect. Arrhenius was also an early proponent of ‘panspermia’ – the theory (now taken very seriously) that spores of life can drift between the planets.<p><strong>1938 | </strong>The first evidence for global warming is brought to light by British researcher Guy Stewart Callendar (1898–1964). He links rising temperatures with increasing carbon dioxide levels since 1850.<p>A steam engineer by profession, Callendar became intrigued by the impact of steam power, and other products of the industrial age, upon the environment. He was first to tally soaring temperatures since the mid-19th century with increasing carbon dioxide levels.<p><strong>1957 | </strong>Roger Revelle in the USA calculates that much less CO2 is absorbed by the Earth's oceans than originally thought, leaving a great deal to warm the planet.<p><strong>1958 | </strong>Charles David Keeling (1928–2005) begins careful measurements of atmospheric CO2 levels at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. In 1961 he publishes evidence for a relentless year-on-year rise.<p>Geochemist and oceanographer Keeling extended Callendar’s work into the modern age, charting the ongoing rise in atmospheric CO2. His graph became known as the ‘Keeling curve’. In 2002, he received the US National Medal of Science for his climate research.<p><strong>1967 | </strong>The first reliable computerised climate simulation yields grim predictions – doubling of carbon dioxide levels from pre-industrial times will raise the Earth's temperature by 2.3 degrees Celsius.<p><strong>1998 | </strong>American climatologists Michael Mann (1965–), Raymond Bradley and Malcolm Hughes publish the 'hockey stick' graph, showing a sharp upturn in global temperatures since the industrial revolution.<p>Mann led a team who put forward the ‘hockey stick’ graph. A key piece of evidence for anthropogenic global warming, it plotted northern hemisphere temperatures over the last 1,000 years, showing a sharp rise at the start of the 20th century.<p><strong>2007 | </strong>The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports that the likelihood of human carbon dioxide emissions being responsible for most observed climate warming is now over 90 per cent.</div></section><h3 id="why-didnt-we-listen-ed0ae10a">Why didn’t we listen?</h3><p><em><strong>For decades, the atomic bomb put climate change in the shade</strong></em></p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="10890" data-paragraphs-left="6"></div><p>Global warming was initially seen as a good thing – it could stave off the next Ice Age, and open up more land for food production. That changed dramatically when the first computer simulations of the 21st-century climate threw up grim prognostications of soaring temperatures and rising sea levels. That was back in 1967. Why has it taken so long for the world to heed the warnings?</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="11273" data-paragraphs-left="5"></div><p>Firstly, the year 2000 seemed a long way away. Those who had lived through the first half of the 20th century had seen terrific short-term upheavals, including two world wars and economic catastrophe. By the Sixties, other very immediate threats to the planet had emerged – such as the Cold War and the <a href="https://www.historyextra.com/period/second-world-war/atomic-bomb-hiroshima-nagasaki-justified-us-debate-bombs-death-toll-japan-how-many-died-nuclear/">atomic bomb</a>.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="11588" data-paragraphs-left="4"></div><p>“It would be hard to expect anybody to take action until they saw changes on a timescale that was meaningful to them,” says Spencer Weart, director of the Center for History of Physics, at the American Institute of Physics, Maryland. “It was hard to imagine planning even two years ahead.” Scientists were listening, though. Come the 1970s, many were devoting serious research effort to climate change. The problem was that convincing governments to change tack on any scientific issue required scientific consensus. Yet the climate is complex – understanding it to the point where consensus could be reached was to take many years of research.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="12232" data-paragraphs-left="3"></div><p>By the end of the 1990s most agreed it was more likely than not humans were to blame. At the same time, the end of the Cold War and increased international stability allowed environmental issues to rise up the public agenda. “People were now willing to plan 50 years ahead,” says Weart.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="12518" data-paragraphs-left="2"></div><p>Under pressure from their electorates to take action, and with scientific evidence mounting, policy makers had little choice but to make fighting climate change a priority.</p><div class="ad-placement" data-count="12690" data-paragraphs-left="1"></div><p><strong>Dr Paul Parsons was formerly editor of award-winning science and technology magazine Focus. His book, <em>The Science of Doctor Who</em>, was long-listed for the 2007 Royal Society Prize for Science Books</strong></p><div class="ad-slot hidden-print hidden-for-md hidden-for-lg"><div class="ad-slot__container"><div class="ad-slot__text body-copy-small pt-xs pb-xs chromatic-ignore">Ad</div><div id="article--inline--3" class="ad-unit"></div></div><div><script>(window.adq = window.adq || []).push((api) => api.addSlot({"key":"inline","index":"3","searchTerm":null,"fullSearchTerm":null}));</script></div></div><p><strong><em>This article was first published in the </em><a href="https://www.historyextra.com/magazine-issue/october-2008/"><em>October 2008 edition of BBC History Magazine</em></a></strong></p></div></div><div class="post__content-end row hidden-print"><div class="col-12"></div></div></div></div><div class="layout-md-rail__secondary layout-md-rail__push hidden-print"><div class="stack"><div class="stack__item ml-auto mr-auto hidden-for-sm-down mb-lg" style="flex-basis:25%"><div class="sticky-offset sticky-offset--has-site-header"><div class="ad-slot hidden-print hidden-for-sm-down"><div class="ad-slot__container ad-slot__mpu-container"><div class="ad-slot__text body-copy-small pt-xs pb-xs chromatic-ignore">Ad</div><div id="article--mpu--1" class="ad-unit"></div></div><div><script>(window.adq = window.adq || []).push((api) => api.addSlot({"key":"mpu","index":"1","searchTerm":null,"fullSearchTerm":null}));</script></div></div></div></div><div class="stack__item ml-auto mr-auto hidden-for-sm-down mb-lg" style="flex-basis:25%"><div class="sticky-offset sticky-offset--has-site-header"><div class="ad-slot hidden-print hidden-for-sm-down"><div class="ad-slot__container ad-slot__mpu-container"><div class="ad-slot__text body-copy-small pt-xs pb-xs chromatic-ignore">Ad</div><div id="article--mpu--2" class="ad-unit"></div></div><div><script>(window.adq = window.adq || []).push((api) => api.addSlot({"key":"mpu","index":"2","searchTerm":null,"fullSearchTerm":null}));</script></div></div></div></div><div class="stack__item ml-auto mr-auto"><div class="pocket hidden-print post__sidebar-pocket mb-lg" data-placement="articleSidebar"><div class="mt-lg"></div><div class="mt-lg"></div></div></div><div class="stack__item ml-auto mr-auto hidden-for-sm-down mb-lg"><div class="sticky-offset sticky-offset--has-site-header"><div class="ad-slot hidden-print hidden-for-sm-down"><div class="ad-slot__container ad-slot__mpu-container"><div class="ad-slot__text body-copy-small pt-xs pb-xs chromatic-ignore">Ad</div><div id="article--mpu--3" class="ad-unit"></div></div><div><script>(window.adq = window.adq || []).push((api) => api.addSlot({"key":"mpu","index":"3","searchTerm":null,"fullSearchTerm":null}));</script></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="pocket hidden-print pt-md mb-md" data-placement="articleFooter"><div class="mt-md"></div></div></div></div></main><div class="default-layout__above-footer-widget"><div class="pocket hidden-print container" data-placement="aboveFooter"><div class=""><div class="newsletter-sign-up text-center pa-sm newsletter-sign-up--horizontal box pa-sm" style="background-color:rgba(254, 251, 246, 1)" data-component="NewsletterSignUp" data-feature="NewsletterSignUp" data-form-name="nl_he_weekly" data-component-variant="horizontal"><div class="recaptcha-badge"></div><form novalidate="" action="/api/editorial/forms/newsletter-signup" method="POST" class="form"><input type="hidden" name="newsletter" value="nl_he_weekly--658"/><h3 class="pt-sm pb-sm heading-3">Sign up for the weekly HistoryExtra newsletter</h3><p class="body-copy-large body-copy-bold mb-lg">Sign up to receive our newsletter!</p><div class="form-group"><label class="form-label sr-only" for="email-address">Email address</label><div class="newsletter-sign-up__form"><input required="" class="form-input newsletter-sign-up__form__input" id="email-address" type="email" placeholder="Email address" name="email" aria-describedby="email-feedback" aria-invalid="false" value=""/><button class="button newsletter-sign-up__form__btn" disabled="" type="submit" data-component="Button" role="button"><div class="button__content">Sign Up</div></button></div><div id="email-feedback" class="form-feedback body-copy-extra-small body-copy-bold newsletter-sign-up__form__feedback"></div><div class="form-group"><div id="recaptcha-feedback" class="form-feedback body-copy-extra-small body-copy-bold newsletter-sign-up__form__feedback"></div></div></div></form><p class="newsletter-sign-up__disclaimer body-copy-extra-small">By entering your details you are agreeing to our <a class="link link--styled" data-component="Link" href="https://www.immediate.co.uk/terms-and-conditions/" target="_blank">terms and conditions</a> and <a class="link link--styled" data-component="Link" href="https://policies.immediate.co.uk/privacy/" target="_blank">privacy policy</a>. 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BBC History Magazine is published by Immediate Media Company Limited under licence from BBC Studios Distribution</small><small class="site-footer__copyright-text body-copy-small mt-xs">© Immediate 2025</small></div></div></section></div></div></footer><div class="default-layout__page-bottom-widget"></div><div class="piano-inline-template"></div></div><div><noscript><iframe title="gtm" src="//www.googletagmanager.com/ns.html?id=GTM-K86F9FM" height="0" width="0" style="display:none;visibility:hidden"></iframe></noscript><script> (function(w,d,s,l,i){ w[l]=w[l]||[]; w[l].push({'gtm.start': new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'}); })(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K86F9FM'); </script></div></div><script id="__NEXT_DATA__" type="application/json">{"props":{"pageProps":{"page":null,"callout":null,"client":"historyextra","entity":"post","postId":"55090","published":"December 3, 2018 at 11:31 AM","slug":"climate-change-warnings-history","uid":"membership~climate-change-warnings-history","title":"A brief history of climate change warnings","status":"published","isPrivate":false,"postType":"post","recommendedPost":{"heading":"More like this","getItemsUrl":"/api/editorial/search/recommended-items?limit=1\u0026clientId=55090\u0026search=A%20brief%20history%20of%20climate%20change%20warnings\u0026postType=post\u0026category=membership"},"authorBioShow":true,"authors":null,"description":"\u003cp\u003eUnderstanding the root cause of climate change took many decades of painstaking research. Paul Parsons traces the story of how science foretold hell and high water...\u003c/p\u003e","endSummary":null,"introduction":[[{"@type":"Content","@id":"/v5/.well-known/genid/7b0ebe7ccbcb080278e0","type":"html","data":{"value":"\u003cp\u003eSandbags, severe flood warnings, mass evacuations – desperate measures as a three-metre-high wall of water bears down on a densely populated coastline. This isn’t fiction. Nor is it an account of tragic events far away in the Indian Ocean. This happened in November 2007 in England, when a huge storm surge welled in the North Sea then smashed into the country’s east coast.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eOn this occasion sea defences held fast and no one was injured. But a similar incident in 1953 left over 300 people dead. Climatologists now warn that extreme weather events such as this are set to get ever more common, as we start to feel the effects of global climate change.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThere are other signs too. According to NASA, 2005 was the warmest year we’ve seen since records began. Malaria has been reported in Nairobi, Kenya as the city’s high altitude becomes warm enough for mosquitoes carrying the disease to survive there.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e“There’s no question that we are seeing the effects of climate change already,” says Spencer Weart, director of the Center for History of Physics, at the American Institute of Physics, Maryland.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn February 2007, the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published an Assessment Report that concluded that the world will see a probable temperature rise of between 1.8 and 4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. “We know the last time the world was three degrees warmer for any long period of time, the sea level was six metres higher,” says Weart. That’s enough to submerge coastal cities from New York to Shanghai.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003ePiecing together the scientific evidence for climate change has been a long and difficult process. It has occupied thousands of bright minds for more than a century – and has been fraught with controversy and political intrigue.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe story began with the discovery, by French scientist Joseph Fourier, of what we now call the ‘greenhouse effect’. In 1824, Fourier calculated that the Earth was a lot warmer than it should be according to estimates based purely on its distance from the Sun. He surmised that the planet’s atmosphere must be slowing down the rate that the planet radiates heat away into space. Light from the Sun passes through the atmosphere to warm the land and oceans below, but the atmosphere prevents this heat escaping – just like the glass in a greenhouse.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn 1896, a Swedish chemist took the theory further. Svante Arrhenius noticed that the gas carbon dioxide (CO2) was especially good at trapping heat radiation. He soon realised what this meant: that the massive increases in atmospheric CO2, caused by coal burning during the industrial revolution, would fuel Fourier’s greenhouse effect and lead to global warming of the planet.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eFar from triggering wide-scale panic, Arrhenius’s prediction was actually welcomed. During the late 19th century geologists had turned up evidence for what they perceived as a far greater climate menace. They discovered that the Earth’s prehistory had been punctuated by long periods of glaciation – when the planet’s surface froze over for hundreds of thousands of years at a time. Arrhenius had actually been investigating the greenhouse effect as a possible explanation of these ‘Ice Ages’. Instead, he stumbled upon a mechanism whereby human CO2 emissions could save us from a frosty fate. And it wasn’t the only benefit. Global warming could be advantageous to food production, bringing marginal lands into cultivation. “Vast land areas in the northern hemisphere could become good agricultural land if the weather warmed,” says Jack Meadows, a science historian at the University of Loughborough. “Canada and the eastern part of Russia was very much a wheat area then, but limited by the short growing season.”\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eBut this was all still theoretical – hard evidence for the changing climate had yet to be seen. It’s true that, in the 15th century, Christopher Columbus had reported that there was less rainfall in the Canary Islands as the inhabitants cut the forest down. During the 17th and 18th centuries, northern Europe experienced an era of extreme cold when the River Thames would regularly freeze – known as the Little Ice Age.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cul\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eRead more | \u003ca href=\"https://www.historyextra.com/period/victorian/facts-history-weather-forecast-weatherman-tv/\"\u003eA history of the weather forecast\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/ul\u003e\u003cp\u003eThese were regional effects though. It wasn’t until later that the signs of climate change on a global scale began to surface. “In the 1930s older people began to say, ‘you kids have it easy – when I went to school there were blizzards, or the rivers froze,’” says Weart.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eA British scientist by the name of Guy Callendar first gathered numerical data to support the anecdotes. In 1938, he published figures showing that between 1890 and 1935, the Earth had warmed by about half a degree Celsius. He pointed out that carbon dioxide levels had risen by ten per cent in this time, owing to the industrial revolution. It was the first solid scientific observation linking climate warming with human carbon emissions.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eBut nobody believed it. By this time, other research had suggested that the Earth’s oceans absorb excess carbon dioxide, and thus act as a natural brake on the greenhouse effect. At any rate, even Callendar believed that the warming effect would still be largely beneficial.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIt wasn’t until 1957 that this thinking was overturned. Roger Revelle, at Scripps Institute of Oceanography in California, with his colleague Hans Seuss, showed that as an ocean absorbs CO2 it becomes more acidic. This radically limits the amount of carbon it can soak up.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch3 id=\"fears-become-fact-41861548\"\u003eFears become fact\u003c/h3\u003e\u003cp\u003eRevelle also reasoned that human CO2 emissions must now be increasing exponentially. For not only was the world’s population doubling every few decades, but the carbon output per capita was itself doubling on the same timescale. His fears became fact just a year later, when Charles David Keeling, also at Scripps, began a careful programme of CO2 monitoring. He found the concentration of the gas to be 315 parts per million, compared with 280ppm in the pre-industrial 19th century. Continuing his measurements until 1961, Keeling charted an inexorable year-on-year rise.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe prevailing attitude of the time was to equate – without question – all human industry with progress. The work of Revelle and Keeling shook this philosophy. But the real body blow came from another quarter entirely: nuclear weapons. “People thought that bomb tests were causing earthquakes and droughts and floods. Fall-out was going around the world,” says Weart. “So human industry is not necessarily all progressive, and human beings can change the entire global environment.”\u003c/p\u003e\u003cul\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eRead more | \u003ca href=\"https://www.historyextra.com/period/20th-century/have-nuclear-weapons-helped-to-maintain-global-peace/\"\u003eHave nuclear weapons helped to maintain global peace?\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/ul\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis awareness – along with concerns over issues such as pollution and chemical pesticides – sparked the first glimmers of the environmental movement. Climate change now had a public voice. Scientists started to listen, and carried out research into its consequences. “By the late 1960s, you began to find scientists warning that global warming may very well be a danger,” says Weart.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eSo began a long and intense phase of climate research. The number of scientific papers published on the subject leapt from two or three a year to between 20 and 30. By 1977, there was a chorus of scientists calling for policy steps to curb carbon emissions. Otherwise, they warned, the world was going to get dramatically warmer in the 21st century, with potentially catastrophic results.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eControversy was also brewing though. The new research revealed just what an intricate system the climate really is – dependent on many, many variables, with no single ‘master key’ to unlock its behaviour. This led some scientists to doubt that human activity was the root cause of global warming. These ‘climate sceptics’ blamed natural factors, such as variations in the brightness of the Sun.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eNevertheless, the evidence for anthropogenic global warming continued to accumulate. Scientists found that it wasn’t just carbon dioxide that causes global warming, but also other gases given off by human activity, such as methane and nitrous oxide – a greenhouse gas 300 times more potent than CO2. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) made headlines. Used widely as refrigerator coolants and aerosol propellants (although now banned), they were up to 8,000 times as harmful as CO2. Worse still came the news that CFCs were ripping a hole in the Earth’s ozone layer – a protective blanket in the upper atmosphere that blocks harmful rays from the Sun.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe news enraged environmentalists, who stepped up their campaigning. In response, climate sceptics defended their position even more aggressively. The debate became a highly polarised, and sometimes even irrational stand-off.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThere was only one way to break the stalemate: more cold, hard scientific research. “Over the last 20 years, the international scientific community has been carrying out research on many, many facets of the climate system,” says Alan Thorpe, chief executive of the UK’s Natural Environment Research Council. “Determining the cause of climate change has required improved understanding of many environmental factors, as well as improvements in our ability to model the climate system.”\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThat’s been achieved through massive advances in computer modelling. Increases in computing power have enabled basic models of the atmosphere, first formulated in the 1980s, to become vastly more realistic. They now accurately reflect the climate’s impact on land masses, oceans and ice sheets. The treatment of physical processes, such as atmospheric chemistry, has been greatly refined.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe results of this modelling have now all but ruled out natural processes as the chief cause of climate change. One study carried out last year by Mike Lockwood, of Rutherford Appleton Laboratories, near Oxford, examined the last 20 years’ worth of solar variations – one of the major factors cited by climate sceptics. Lockwood found that if the Sun was the main contributor to climate change then the planet should actually be getting cooler – in clear contradiction of the evidence. Consequently, the IPCC stated in its 2007 Assessment Report that the likelihood of global warming since the mid-20th century being caused mainly by human greenhouse gas emissions is now in excess of 90 per cent.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn 2006, the Stern Review of the economic impact of climate change was published. It found that the dollar cost of inactivity – and so suffering the consequences of global warming – grossly outweighed the cost of taking early action to stop it. Meanwhile, military commanders warned of the potential threat to national security posed by mass migrations of refugees from flood lands, and by conflicts over resources as starving nations went to war for food.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThese strands came together to build a compelling case for governments to act. The Kyoto Protocol, capping carbon emissions, has now been ratified by 182 signatories – the notable exception being the United States. In 2009, world representatives are due to meet for talks in Copenhagen to finalise the terms of a new treaty that will replace Kyoto once it expires in 2012.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThere’s still much to be done to avert environmental hell and high water. But understanding the science of global climate change could literally have saved the world. And it has achieved something else equally incredible – teaching national leaders to look beyond both their borders and short electoral terms. That’s got to be a good thing.\u003c/p\u003e"}},{"@type":"Content","@id":"/v5/.well-known/genid/eb145b733ad575794bc6","type":"highlight-box","data":{"content":"\u003ch4\u003eTimeline of climate change warnings through history\u003c/h4\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e1824 | \u003c/strong\u003eFrench scientist Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier (1768–1830) predicts the greenhouse effect – in which the Earth's atmosphere traps heat and makes the planet warmer than it otherwise would be. \u003cp\u003eThe French polymath is best known for the ‘Fourier series’ – a tool for breaking down complex mathematics into simpler forms – useful in physics, such as heat flow and wave theory, and in communications. It was Fourier who discovered the ‘greenhouse effect’.\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e1896 | \u003c/strong\u003eSwedish chemist Svante Arrhenius (1859–1927) calculates that industrial carbon dioxide emissions will enhance the greenhouse effect, leading to global warming. He didn't know it had already begun.\u003cp\u003eThis Swedish chemist was first to realise that human emissions of carbon dioxide could aggravate the greenhouse effect. Arrhenius was also an early proponent of ‘panspermia’ – the theory (now taken very seriously) that spores of life can drift between the planets.\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e1938 | \u003c/strong\u003eThe first evidence for global warming is brought to light by British researcher Guy Stewart Callendar (1898–1964). He links rising temperatures with increasing carbon dioxide levels since 1850.\u003cp\u003eA steam engineer by profession, Callendar became intrigued by the impact of steam power, and other products of the industrial age, upon the environment. He was first to tally soaring temperatures since the mid-19th century with increasing carbon dioxide levels.\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e1957 | \u003c/strong\u003eRoger Revelle in the USA calculates that much less CO2 is absorbed by the Earth's oceans than originally thought, leaving a great deal to warm the planet.\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e1958 | \u003c/strong\u003eCharles David Keeling (1928–2005) begins careful measurements of atmospheric CO2 levels at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. In 1961 he publishes evidence for a relentless year-on-year rise.\u003cp\u003eGeochemist and oceanographer Keeling extended Callendar’s work into the modern age, charting the ongoing rise in atmospheric CO2. His graph became known as the ‘Keeling curve’. In 2002, he received the US National Medal of Science for his climate research.\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e1967 | \u003c/strong\u003eThe first reliable computerised climate simulation yields grim predictions – doubling of carbon dioxide levels from pre-industrial times will raise the Earth's temperature by 2.3 degrees Celsius.\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e1998 | \u003c/strong\u003eAmerican climatologists Michael Mann (1965–), Raymond Bradley and Malcolm Hughes publish the 'hockey stick' graph, showing a sharp upturn in global temperatures since the industrial revolution.\u003cp\u003eMann led a team who put forward the ‘hockey stick’ graph. A key piece of evidence for anthropogenic global warming, it plotted northern hemisphere temperatures over the last 1,000 years, showing a sharp rise at the start of the 20th century.\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e2007 | \u003c/strong\u003eThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports that the likelihood of human carbon dioxide emissions being responsible for most observed climate warming is now over 90 per cent.","image":null,"hasBackdrop":true,"useCommercialTheme":false}},{"@type":"Content","@id":"/v5/.well-known/genid/cd0d70ed96a004db7b80","type":"html","data":{"value":"\u003ch3 id=\"why-didnt-we-listen-ed0ae10a\"\u003eWhy didn’t we listen?\u003c/h3\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFor decades, the atomic bomb put climate change in the shade\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eGlobal warming was initially seen as a good thing – it could stave off the next Ice Age, and open up more land for food production. That changed dramatically when the first computer simulations of the 21st-century climate threw up grim prognostications of soaring temperatures and rising sea levels. That was back in 1967. Why has it taken so long for the world to heed the warnings?\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eFirstly, the year 2000 seemed a long way away. Those who had lived through the first half of the 20th century had seen terrific short-term upheavals, including two world wars and economic catastrophe. By the Sixties, other very immediate threats to the planet had emerged – such as the Cold War and the \u003ca href=\"https://www.historyextra.com/period/second-world-war/atomic-bomb-hiroshima-nagasaki-justified-us-debate-bombs-death-toll-japan-how-many-died-nuclear/\"\u003eatomic bomb\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e“It would be hard to expect anybody to take action until they saw changes on a timescale that was meaningful to them,” says Spencer Weart, director of the Center for History of Physics, at the American Institute of Physics, Maryland. “It was hard to imagine planning even two years ahead.” Scientists were listening, though. Come the 1970s, many were devoting serious research effort to climate change. The problem was that convincing governments to change tack on any scientific issue required scientific consensus. Yet the climate is complex – understanding it to the point where consensus could be reached was to take many years of research.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eBy the end of the 1990s most agreed it was more likely than not humans were to blame. At the same time, the end of the Cold War and increased international stability allowed environmental issues to rise up the public agenda. “People were now willing to plan 50 years ahead,” says Weart.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eUnder pressure from their electorates to take action, and with scientific evidence mounting, policy makers had little choice but to make fighting climate change a priority.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eDr Paul Parsons was formerly editor of award-winning science and technology magazine Focus. His book, \u003cem\u003eThe Science of Doctor Who\u003c/em\u003e, was long-listed for the 2007 Royal Society Prize for Science Books\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cem\u003eThis article was first published in the \u003c/em\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://www.historyextra.com/magazine-issue/october-2008/\"\u003e\u003cem\u003eOctober 2008 edition of BBC History Magazine\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e"}}]],"promo":{"label":"Subscribe to BBC History Magazine today and pay £24.99 every 6 issues + FREE HistoryExtra and Academy access ","url":"https://www.buysubscriptions.com/print/bbc-history-magazine-subscription?promo=ES25BRA\u0026amp;utm_medium=brandsite\u0026amp;utm_source=historyextra.com\u0026amp;utm_campaign=ES25BRA\u0026amp;utm_content=promotional-link\u0026amp;style=brand","type":"promotional-link"},"userRatings":{"total":0,"isHalfStar":true},"isSaveable":true,"sponsor":null,"relatedItems":null,"plantOverview":null,"openWebSettings":null,"breadcrumbs":[{"label":"Home","url":"https://www.historyextra.com:443"},{"label":"Membership","url":"https://www.historyextra.com/membership/"},{"label":"A brief history of climate change warnings"}],"seoMetadata":{"title":"A brief history of climate change warnings","description":"Understanding the root cause of climate change took many decades of painstaking research. 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