EGU - Policy - Policy-relevant papers

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<small class="text-uppercase">Policy</small> Policy-relevant papers <small></small> </h1> </div> </section> <div id="breadcrumbs" class="breadcrumbs"> <div class="container d-sm-flex align-items-baseline"> <div class="flex-grow-1"><nav aria-label="breadcrumb"><ol class="breadcrumb"><li class="breadcrumb-item"><a href="/">Home</a></li><li class="breadcrumb-item"><a href="/policy/">Policy</a></li><li class="breadcrumb-item active" aria-current="page"><a href="/policy/papers/">Policy-relevant papers</a></li></ol></nav></div> <div class="d-none d-sm-block text-nowrap ml-2"></div> <div class="d-none d-sm-block text-nowrap ml-2"> <form method="GET" action="/search/" class="form-inline auto-submit flex-nowrap"> <label for="site_keywords" class="sr-only">Site search</label> <div class="input-group"> <input placeholder="Site search" type="text" class="form-control form-control-sm" autocomplete="off" id="site_keywords" name="keywords" value=""> <div class="input-group-append"> <button 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href="?limit=20">20</a> <a data-ic-limit="50" role="button" class="btn btn-tag " href="?limit=50">50</a> </div> </div> </div> <hr> <article class="media"> <img class="img-fluid img-thumbnail" alt="policy/relatedpaper/2023/02/05/b09cce7754ede99afe73170013c862b0b.png" src="https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2023/02/05/b09cce7754ede99afe73170013c862b0b.png.120x120_q90_crop_upscale.png" srcset="https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2023/02/05/b09cce7754ede99afe73170013c862b0b.png.120x120_q90_crop_upscale.png 1x, https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2023/02/05/b09cce7754ede99afe73170013c862b0b.png.240x240_q90_crop_upscale.png 2x" loading="lazy"> <div class="media-body"> <h2 class="h4"><a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023">A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 1: Event description and analysis</a></h2> <ul class="list-inline"> <li class="list-inline-item"><i class="far fa-fw fa-newspaper"></i> Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences</li> <li class="list-inline-item"><abbr class="initialism" title="Digital object identifier">DOI</abbr> <a class="external" href="https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023">10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023</a></li> <li class="list-inline-item"><i class="far fa-fw fa-calendar-plus"></i> 6 February 2023</li> </ul> <p>The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.</p> <p class="more-link my-1 text-right "><a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023" aria-label="Read more about A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 1: Event description and analysis">Read more</a> </div> </article> <hr> <article class="media"> <img class="img-fluid img-thumbnail" alt="policy/relatedpaper/2023/01/31/cd99406a9e33be904010d2864971e6eeb.png" src="https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2023/01/31/cd99406a9e33be904010d2864971e6eeb.png.120x120_q90_crop_upscale.png" srcset="https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2023/01/31/cd99406a9e33be904010d2864971e6eeb.png.120x120_q90_crop_upscale.png 1x, https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2023/01/31/cd99406a9e33be904010d2864971e6eeb.png.240x240_q90_crop_upscale.png 2x" loading="lazy"> <div class="media-body"> <h2 class="h4"><a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023">Reconstructions and predictions of the global carbon budget with an emission-driven Earth system model</a></h2> <ul class="list-inline"> <li class="list-inline-item"><i class="far fa-fw fa-newspaper"></i> Earth System Dynamics</li> <li class="list-inline-item"><abbr class="initialism" title="Digital object identifier">DOI</abbr> <a class="external" href="https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023">10.5194/esd-14-101-2023</a></li> <li class="list-inline-item"><i class="far fa-fw fa-calendar-plus"></i> 1 February 2023</li> </ul> <p>For the first time, our decadal prediction system based on Max Planck Institute Earth System Model enables prognostic atmospheric CO2 with an interactive carbon cycle. The evolution of CO2 fluxes and atmospheric CO2 growth is reconstructed well by assimilating data products; retrospective predictions show high confidence in predicting changes in the next year. The Earth system predictions provide valuable inputs for understanding the global carbon cycle and informing climate-relevant policy.</p> <p class="more-link my-1 text-right "><a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023" aria-label="Read more about Reconstructions and predictions of the global carbon budget with an emission-driven Earth system model">Read more</a> </div> </article> <hr> <article class="media"> <img class="img-fluid img-thumbnail" alt="policy/relatedpaper/2023/01/23/8d38c0e4aab2e25cfad0350ef9d012cdb.png" src="https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2023/01/23/8d38c0e4aab2e25cfad0350ef9d012cdb.png.120x120_q90_crop_upscale.png" srcset="https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2023/01/23/8d38c0e4aab2e25cfad0350ef9d012cdb.png.120x120_q90_crop_upscale.png 1x, https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2023/01/23/8d38c0e4aab2e25cfad0350ef9d012cdb.png.240x240_q90_crop_upscale.png 2x" loading="lazy"> <div class="media-body"> <h2 class="h4"><a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-365-2023">Permafrost degradation and nitrogen cycling in Arctic rivers: insights from stable nitrogen isotope studies</a></h2> <ul class="list-inline"> <li class="list-inline-item"><i class="far fa-fw fa-newspaper"></i> Biogeosciences</li> <li class="list-inline-item"><abbr class="initialism" title="Digital object identifier">DOI</abbr> <a class="external" href="https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-365-2023">10.5194/bg-20-365-2023</a></li> <li class="list-inline-item"><i class="far fa-fw fa-calendar-plus"></i> 24 January 2023</li> </ul> <p>Climate change is causing extensive permafrost degradation and nutrient releases into rivers with great ecological impacts on the Arctic Ocean. We focused on nitrogen release from this degradation and associated cycling using nitrogen isotopes, an understudied area. Nitrogen inputs from permafrost degradation and seasonal river nitrogen trends were identified using isotopes, helping to predict climate change impacts.</p> <p class="more-link my-1 text-right "><a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-365-2023" aria-label="Read more about Permafrost degradation and nitrogen cycling in Arctic rivers: insights from stable nitrogen isotope studies">Read more</a> </div> </article> <hr> <article class="media"> <img class="img-fluid img-thumbnail" alt="policy/relatedpaper/2023/01/12/3c083d6eb3a59fd25fbb40c5f5f4c7b4b.png" src="https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2023/01/12/3c083d6eb3a59fd25fbb40c5f5f4c7b4b.png.120x120_q90_crop_upscale.png" srcset="https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2023/01/12/3c083d6eb3a59fd25fbb40c5f5f4c7b4b.png.120x120_q90_crop_upscale.png 1x, https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2023/01/12/3c083d6eb3a59fd25fbb40c5f5f4c7b4b.png.240x240_q90_crop_upscale.png 2x" loading="lazy"> <div class="media-body"> <h2 class="h4"><a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-303-2023">Droughts can reduce the nitrogen retention capacity of catchments</a></h2> <ul class="list-inline"> <li class="list-inline-item"><i class="far fa-fw fa-newspaper"></i> Hydrology and Earth System Sciences</li> <li class="list-inline-item"><abbr class="initialism" title="Digital object identifier">DOI</abbr> <a class="external" href="https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-303-2023">10.5194/hess-27-303-2023</a></li> <li class="list-inline-item"><i class="far fa-fw fa-calendar-plus"></i> 13 January 2023</li> </ul> <p>The increasing frequency of severe and prolonged droughts threatens our freshwater resources. While we understand drought impacts on water quantity, its effects on water quality remain largely unknown. Here, we studied the impact of the unprecedented 2018–2019 drought in Central Europe on nitrate export in a heterogeneous mesoscale catchment in Germany. We show that severe drought can reduce a catchment’s capacity to retain nitrogen, intensifying the internal pollution and export of nitrate.</p> <p class="more-link my-1 text-right "><a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-303-2023" aria-label="Read more about Droughts can reduce the nitrogen retention capacity of catchments">Read more</a> </div> </article> <hr> <article class="media"> <img class="img-fluid img-thumbnail" alt="policy/relatedpaper/2023/01/11/f77e28ced57f24e41b24a43162c9a6ffb.png" src="https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2023/01/11/f77e28ced57f24e41b24a43162c9a6ffb.png.120x120_q90_crop_upscale.png" srcset="https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2023/01/11/f77e28ced57f24e41b24a43162c9a6ffb.png.120x120_q90_crop_upscale.png 1x, https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2023/01/11/f77e28ced57f24e41b24a43162c9a6ffb.png.240x240_q90_crop_upscale.png 2x" loading="lazy"> <div class="media-body"> <h2 class="h4"><a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023">A data-driven model for Fennoscandian wildfire danger</a></h2> <ul class="list-inline"> <li class="list-inline-item"><i class="far fa-fw fa-newspaper"></i> Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences</li> <li class="list-inline-item"><abbr class="initialism" title="Digital object identifier">DOI</abbr> <a class="external" href="https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023">10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023</a></li> <li class="list-inline-item"><i class="far fa-fw fa-calendar-plus"></i> 12 January 2023</li> </ul> <p>In this study, we developed a machine learning model to identify dominant controls of wildfire in Fennoscandia and produce monthly fire danger probability maps. The dominant control was shallow-soil water anomaly, followed by air temperature and deep soil water. The model proved skilful with a similar performance as the existing Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). We highlight the benefit of using data-driven models jointly with other fire models to improve fire monitoring and prediction.</p> <p class="more-link my-1 text-right "><a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023" aria-label="Read more about A data-driven model for Fennoscandian wildfire danger">Read more</a> </div> </article> <hr> <article class="media"> <img class="img-fluid img-thumbnail" alt="policy/relatedpaper/2023/01/03/4edb47b34a84fbee979f8cbc64249db1b.png" src="https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2023/01/03/4edb47b34a84fbee979f8cbc64249db1b.png.120x120_q90_crop_upscale.png" srcset="https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2023/01/03/4edb47b34a84fbee979f8cbc64249db1b.png.120x120_q90_crop_upscale.png 1x, https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2023/01/03/4edb47b34a84fbee979f8cbc64249db1b.png.240x240_q90_crop_upscale.png 2x" loading="lazy"> <div class="media-body"> <h2 class="h4"><a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/soil-9-1-2023">Soil and crop management practices and the water regulation functions of soils: a qualitative synthesis of meta-analyses relevant to European agriculture</a></h2> <ul class="list-inline"> <li class="list-inline-item"><i class="far fa-fw fa-newspaper"></i> SOIL</li> <li class="list-inline-item"><abbr class="initialism" title="Digital object identifier">DOI</abbr> <a class="external" href="https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-9-1-2023">10.5194/soil-9-1-2023</a></li> <li class="list-inline-item"><i class="far fa-fw fa-calendar-plus"></i> 4 January 2023</li> </ul> <p>European agriculture is vulnerable to weather extremes. Nevertheless, by choosing well how to manage their land, farmers can protect themselves against drought and peak rains. More than a thousand observations across Europe show that it is important to keep the soil covered with living plants, even in winter. A focus on a general reduction of traffic on agricultural land is more important than reducing tillage. Organic material needs to remain or be added on the field as much as possible.</p> <p class="more-link my-1 text-right "><a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/soil-9-1-2023" aria-label="Read more about Soil and crop management practices and the water regulation functions of soils: a qualitative synthesis of meta-analyses relevant to European agriculture">Read more</a> </div> </article> <hr> <article class="media"> <img class="img-fluid img-thumbnail" alt="policy/relatedpaper/2022/12/13/4efb69f7bd50b5318d3ef20de165b157b.png" src="https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2022/12/13/4efb69f7bd50b5318d3ef20de165b157b.png.120x120_q90_crop_upscale.png" srcset="https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2022/12/13/4efb69f7bd50b5318d3ef20de165b157b.png.120x120_q90_crop_upscale.png 1x, https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2022/12/13/4efb69f7bd50b5318d3ef20de165b157b.png.240x240_q90_crop_upscale.png 2x" loading="lazy"> <div class="media-body"> <h2 class="h4"><a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/soil-8-751-2022">Transforming living labs into lighthouses: a promising policy to achieve land-related sustainable development</a></h2> <ul class="list-inline"> <li class="list-inline-item"><i class="far fa-fw fa-newspaper"></i> SOIL</li> <li class="list-inline-item"><abbr class="initialism" title="Digital object identifier">DOI</abbr> <a class="external" href="https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-8-751-2022">10.5194/soil-8-751-2022</a></li> <li class="list-inline-item"><i class="far fa-fw fa-calendar-plus"></i> 14 December 2022</li> </ul> <p>In the new Soil Deal for Europe, land users, mostly farmers, and scientists are required to work jointly in living labs to develop sustainable land use systems. We propose that threshold values for different ecosystem services in line with the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the EU Green Deal have to be met to define lighthouses that demonstrate successful sustainable land use systems, functioning as inspiring examples. A case study illustrates the important role of soils.</p> <p class="more-link my-1 text-right "><a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/soil-8-751-2022" aria-label="Read more about Transforming living labs into lighthouses: a promising policy to achieve land-related sustainable development">Read more</a> </div> </article> <hr> <article class="media"> <img class="img-fluid img-thumbnail" alt="policy/relatedpaper/2022/11/27/7c8a14c9726c0ebda4199c15e5dcd0b7b.png" src="https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2022/11/27/7c8a14c9726c0ebda4199c15e5dcd0b7b.png.120x120_q90_crop_upscale.png" srcset="https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2022/11/27/7c8a14c9726c0ebda4199c15e5dcd0b7b.png.120x120_q90_crop_upscale.png 1x, https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2022/11/27/7c8a14c9726c0ebda4199c15e5dcd0b7b.png.240x240_q90_crop_upscale.png 2x" loading="lazy"> <div class="media-body"> <h2 class="h4"><a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022">Multi-scenario urban flood risk assessment by integrating future land use change models and hydrodynamic models</a></h2> <ul class="list-inline"> <li class="list-inline-item"><i class="far fa-fw fa-newspaper"></i> Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences</li> <li class="list-inline-item"><abbr class="initialism" title="Digital object identifier">DOI</abbr> <a class="external" href="https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022">10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022</a></li> <li class="list-inline-item"><i class="far fa-fw fa-calendar-plus"></i> 28 November 2022</li> </ul> <p>Flooding by extreme weather events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in coastal areas. The research illustrates the importance of assessing the performance of different future urban development scenarios in response to climate change, and the simulation study of urban risks will prove to decision makers that incorporating disaster prevention measures into urban development plans will help reduce disaster losses and improve the ability of urban systems to respond to floods.</p> <p class="more-link my-1 text-right "><a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022" aria-label="Read more about Multi-scenario urban flood risk assessment by integrating future land use change models and hydrodynamic models">Read more</a> </div> </article> <hr> <article class="media"> <img class="img-fluid img-thumbnail" alt="policy/relatedpaper/2022/11/16/d8e4706b331e97c80afb2c8c12a4263bb.png" src="https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2022/11/16/d8e4706b331e97c80afb2c8c12a4263bb.png.120x120_q90_crop_upscale.png" srcset="https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2022/11/16/d8e4706b331e97c80afb2c8c12a4263bb.png.120x120_q90_crop_upscale.png 1x, https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2022/11/16/d8e4706b331e97c80afb2c8c12a4263bb.png.240x240_q90_crop_upscale.png 2x" loading="lazy"> <div class="media-body"> <h2 class="h4"><a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022">A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021</a></h2> <ul class="list-inline"> <li class="list-inline-item"><i class="far fa-fw fa-newspaper"></i> Weather and Climate Dynamics</li> <li class="list-inline-item"><abbr class="initialism" title="Digital object identifier">DOI</abbr> <a class="external" href="https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022">10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022</a></li> <li class="list-inline-item"><i class="far fa-fw fa-calendar-plus"></i> 17 November 2022</li> </ul> <p>We analyze the atmospheric circulation leading to impactful extreme events for the calendar year 2021 such as the Storm Filomena, Westphalia floods, Hurricane Ida and Medicane Apollo. For some of the events, we find that climate change has contributed to their occurrence or enhanced their intensity; for other events, we find that they are unprecedented. Our approach underscores the importance of considering changes in the atmospheric circulation when performing attribution studies.</p> <p class="more-link my-1 text-right "><a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022" aria-label="Read more about A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021">Read more</a> </div> </article> <hr> <article class="media"> <img class="img-fluid img-thumbnail" alt="policy/relatedpaper/2022/11/07/48a3f753244f0c061d559c0551739c62b.png" src="https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2022/11/07/48a3f753244f0c061d559c0551739c62b.png.120x120_q90_crop_upscale.png" srcset="https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2022/11/07/48a3f753244f0c061d559c0551739c62b.png.120x120_q90_crop_upscale.png 1x, https://www.egu.eu/media/policy/relatedpaper/2022/11/07/48a3f753244f0c061d559c0551739c62b.png.240x240_q90_crop_upscale.png 2x" loading="lazy"> <div class="media-body"> <h2 class="h4"><a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14243-2022">COVID-19 lockdown emission reductions have the potential to explain over half of the coincident increase in global atmospheric methane</a></h2> <ul class="list-inline"> <li class="list-inline-item"><i class="far fa-fw fa-newspaper"></i> Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics</li> <li class="list-inline-item"><abbr class="initialism" title="Digital object identifier">DOI</abbr> <a class="external" href="https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14243-2022">10.5194/acp-22-14243-2022</a></li> <li class="list-inline-item"><i class="far fa-fw fa-calendar-plus"></i> 8 November 2022</li> </ul> <p>Atmospheric methane’s growth rate rose by 50 % in 2020 relative to 2019. Lower nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions tend to increase methane’s atmospheric residence time; lower carbon monoxide (CO) and non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) emissions decrease its lifetime. Combining model sensitivities with emission changes, we find that COVID-19 lockdown emission reductions can explain over half the observed increases in methane in 2020.</p> <p class="more-link my-1 text-right "><a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14243-2022" aria-label="Read more about COVID-19 lockdown emission reductions have the potential to explain over half of the coincident increase in global atmospheric methane">Read more</a> </div> </article> <hr> <nav class="btn-toolbar btn-toolbar-pagination mt-2" role="presentation" aria-label="Pagination navigation"> <div class="btn-group btn-group-sm mx-auto" role="group"> <a href="?page=1" data-ic-page="1" role="button" class="btn btn-tag active" aria-pressed="true">1</a> <a href="?page=2" data-ic-page="2" role="button" class="btn btn-tag">2</a> <a href="?page=3" data-ic-page="3" role="button" class="btn btn-tag">3</a> <a href="#" disabled type="button" class="btn btn-tag disabled">...</a> <a href="?page=34" data-ic-page="34" role="button" class="btn btn-tag">34</a> <a href="?page=2" data-ic-page="2" role="button" class="btn btn-tag" aria-label="Next"> <i class="fas fa-fw fa-angle-double-right" aria-hidden="true"></i> <span class="sr-only">Next</span> </a> </div> </nav> </div> </div> </form> </div> </main>  <footer class="d-print-none"> <div class="footer"> <div class="container"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-md-6 mb-4 mb-md-0"> <div class="footer-heading"> <h2>About EGU</h2> </div> <p>EGU, the European Geosciences Union, is Europe’s premier geosciences union, dedicated to the pursuit of excellence in the Earth, planetary, and space sciences for the benefit of humanity, worldwide. 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