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class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a href="#" class="vector-toc-link"> <div class="vector-toc-text">ページ先頭</div> </a> </li> <li id="toc-「気候感度」の考え方" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#「気候感度」の考え方"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">1</span> <span>「気候感度」の考え方</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-「気候感度」の考え方-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-気候感度の変化と気候変動" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#気候感度の変化と気候変動"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2</span> <span>気候感度の変化と気候変動</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-気候感度の変化と気候変動-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-気候感度の算出例" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#気候感度の算出例"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3</span> <span>気候感度の算出例</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-気候感度の算出例-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-脚注" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#脚注"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4</span> <span>脚注</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-脚注-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>脚注サブセクションを切り替えます</span> </button> <ul id="toc-脚注-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-出典" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#出典"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4.1</span> <span>出典</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-出典-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-注釈" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#注釈"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4.2</span> <span>注釈</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-注釈-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-関連項目" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#関連項目"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5</span> <span>関連項目</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-関連項目-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-外部リンク" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#外部リンク"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6</span> <span>外部リンク</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-外部リンク-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div class="mw-content-container"> <main id="content" class="mw-body"> <header class="mw-body-header vector-page-titlebar"> <nav aria-label="目次" class="vector-toc-landmark"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown vector-page-titlebar-toc vector-button-flush-left" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="目次の表示・非表示を切り替え" > <label id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-label" for="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only " aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-listBullet mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-listBullet"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">目次の表示・非表示を切り替え</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-unpinned-container" class="vector-unpinned-container"> </div> </div> </div> </nav> <h1 id="firstHeading" class="firstHeading mw-first-heading"><span class="mw-page-title-main">気候感度</span></h1> <div id="p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown mw-portlet mw-portlet-lang" > <input type="checkbox" id="p-lang-btn-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox mw-interlanguage-selector" aria-label="特定の記事の別の言語版に移動します。利用可能な言語28件" > <label id="p-lang-btn-label" for="p-lang-btn-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--action-progressive mw-portlet-lang-heading-28" aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-language-progressive mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-language-progressive"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">28の言語版</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ar mw-list-item"><a href="https://ar.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%AD%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A9_%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%AE" title="アラビア語: حساسية المناخ" lang="ar" hreflang="ar" data-title="حساسية المناخ" data-language-autonym="العربية" data-language-local-name="アラビア語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>العربية</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ca mw-list-item"><a href="https://ca.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensibilitat_clim%C3%A0tica" title="カタロニア語: Sensibilitat climàtica" lang="ca" hreflang="ca" data-title="Sensibilitat climàtica" data-language-autonym="Català" data-language-local-name="カタロニア語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Català</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-cs mw-list-item"><a href="https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citlivost_klimatu" title="チェコ語: Citlivost klimatu" lang="cs" hreflang="cs" data-title="Citlivost klimatu" data-language-autonym="Čeština" data-language-local-name="チェコ語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Čeština</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-da mw-list-item"><a href="https://da.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klimaf%C3%B8lsomhed" title="デンマーク語: Klimafølsomhed" lang="da" hreflang="da" data-title="Klimafølsomhed" data-language-autonym="Dansk" data-language-local-name="デンマーク語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Dansk</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-de mw-list-item"><a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klimasensitivit%C3%A4t" title="ドイツ語: Klimasensitivität" lang="de" hreflang="de" data-title="Klimasensitivität" data-language-autonym="Deutsch" data-language-local-name="ドイツ語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Deutsch</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-el mw-list-item"><a href="https://el.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CE%9A%CE%BB%CE%B9%CE%BC%CE%B1%CF%84%CE%B9%CE%BA%CE%AE_%CE%B5%CF%85%CE%B1%CE%B9%CF%83%CE%B8%CE%B7%CF%83%CE%AF%CE%B1" title="ギリシャ語: Κλιματική ευαισθησία" lang="el" hreflang="el" data-title="Κλιματική ευαισθησία" data-language-autonym="Ελληνικά" data-language-local-name="ギリシャ語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Ελληνικά</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-en badge-Q17437798 badge-goodarticle mw-list-item" title="良質な記事"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_sensitivity" title="英語: Climate sensitivity" lang="en" hreflang="en" data-title="Climate sensitivity" data-language-autonym="English" data-language-local-name="英語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>English</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-es mw-list-item"><a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensibilidad_clim%C3%A1tica" title="スペイン語: Sensibilidad climática" lang="es" hreflang="es" data-title="Sensibilidad climática" data-language-autonym="Español" data-language-local-name="スペイン語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Español</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fa mw-list-item"><a href="https://fa.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%AD%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%AA_%D8%A8%D9%87_%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%84%DB%8C%D9%85" title="ペルシア語: حساسیت به اقلیم" lang="fa" hreflang="fa" data-title="حساسیت به اقلیم" data-language-autonym="فارسی" data-language-local-name="ペルシア語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>فارسی</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fi mw-list-item"><a href="https://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilmastoherkkyys" title="フィンランド語: Ilmastoherkkyys" lang="fi" hreflang="fi" data-title="Ilmastoherkkyys" data-language-autonym="Suomi" data-language-local-name="フィンランド語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Suomi</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fr mw-list-item"><a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensibilit%C3%A9_climatique" title="フランス語: Sensibilité climatique" lang="fr" hreflang="fr" data-title="Sensibilité climatique" data-language-autonym="Français" data-language-local-name="フランス語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Français</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ha mw-list-item"><a href="https://ha.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hankalin_yanayi" title="ハウサ語: Hankalin yanayi" lang="ha" hreflang="ha" data-title="Hankalin yanayi" data-language-autonym="Hausa" data-language-local-name="ハウサ語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Hausa</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-it mw-list-item"><a href="https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensitivit%C3%A0_climatica" title="イタリア語: Sensitività climatica" lang="it" hreflang="it" data-title="Sensitività climatica" data-language-autonym="Italiano" data-language-local-name="イタリア語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Italiano</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ko mw-list-item"><a href="https://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EA%B8%B0%ED%9B%84_%EB%AF%BC%EA%B0%90%EB%8F%84" title="韓国語: 기후 민감도" lang="ko" hreflang="ko" data-title="기후 민감도" data-language-autonym="한국어" data-language-local-name="韓国語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>한국어</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-mk mw-list-item"><a href="https://mk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9A%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B0_%D1%87%D1%83%D0%B2%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82" title="マケドニア語: Климатска чувствителност" lang="mk" hreflang="mk" data-title="Климатска чувствителност" data-language-autonym="Македонски" data-language-local-name="マケドニア語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Македонски</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ms mw-list-item"><a href="https://ms.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepekaan_iklim" title="マレー語: Kepekaan iklim" lang="ms" hreflang="ms" data-title="Kepekaan iklim" data-language-autonym="Bahasa Melayu" data-language-local-name="マレー語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Bahasa Melayu</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-nl mw-list-item"><a href="https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klimaatgevoeligheid" title="オランダ語: Klimaatgevoeligheid" lang="nl" hreflang="nl" data-title="Klimaatgevoeligheid" data-language-autonym="Nederlands" data-language-local-name="オランダ語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Nederlands</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-no mw-list-item"><a href="https://no.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klimaf%C3%B8lsomhet" title="ノルウェー語(ブークモール): Klimafølsomhet" lang="nb" hreflang="nb" data-title="Klimafølsomhet" data-language-autonym="Norsk bokmål" data-language-local-name="ノルウェー語(ブークモール)" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Norsk bokmål</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-pl mw-list-item"><a href="https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czu%C5%82o%C5%9B%C4%87_klimatu" title="ポーランド語: Czułość klimatu" lang="pl" hreflang="pl" data-title="Czułość klimatu" data-language-autonym="Polski" data-language-local-name="ポーランド語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Polski</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ps mw-list-item"><a href="https://ps.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%84%DB%8C%D9%85%D9%8A_%D8%AD%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%AA" title="パシュトゥー語: اقلیمي حساسیت" lang="ps" hreflang="ps" data-title="اقلیمي حساسیت" data-language-autonym="پښتو" data-language-local-name="パシュトゥー語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>پښتو</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-pt mw-list-item"><a href="https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensibilidade_clim%C3%A1tica" title="ポルトガル語: Sensibilidade climática" lang="pt" hreflang="pt" data-title="Sensibilidade climática" data-language-autonym="Português" data-language-local-name="ポルトガル語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Português</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-simple mw-list-item"><a href="https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_sensitivity" title="シンプル英語: Climate sensitivity" lang="en-simple" hreflang="en-simple" data-title="Climate sensitivity" data-language-autonym="Simple English" data-language-local-name="シンプル英語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Simple English</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-sr mw-list-item"><a href="https://sr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9A%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B0_%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%B5%D1%82%D1%99%D0%B8%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82" title="セルビア語: Климатска осетљивост" lang="sr" hreflang="sr" data-title="Климатска осетљивост" data-language-autonym="Српски / srpski" data-language-local-name="セルビア語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Српски / srpski</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-sv mw-list-item"><a href="https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klimatk%C3%A4nslighet" title="スウェーデン語: Klimatkänslighet" lang="sv" hreflang="sv" data-title="Klimatkänslighet" data-language-autonym="Svenska" data-language-local-name="スウェーデン語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Svenska</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-sw mw-list-item"><a href="https://sw.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unyeti_wa_hali_ya_hewa" title="スワヒリ語: Unyeti wa hali ya hewa" lang="sw" hreflang="sw" data-title="Unyeti wa hali ya hewa" data-language-autonym="Kiswahili" data-language-local-name="スワヒリ語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Kiswahili</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-uk mw-list-item"><a href="https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A7%D1%83%D1%82%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%B2%D1%96%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C_%D0%BA%D0%BB%D1%96%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%83" title="ウクライナ語: Чутливість клімату" lang="uk" hreflang="uk" data-title="Чутливість клімату" data-language-autonym="Українська" data-language-local-name="ウクライナ語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Українська</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-vi mw-list-item"><a href="https://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C4%90%E1%BB%99_nh%E1%BA%A1y_kh%C3%AD_h%E1%BA%ADu" title="ベトナム語: Độ nhạy khí hậu" lang="vi" hreflang="vi" data-title="Độ nhạy khí hậu" data-language-autonym="Tiếng Việt" data-language-local-name="ベトナム語" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Tiếng 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class="mw-body-content"><div class="mw-content-ltr mw-parser-output" lang="ja" dir="ltr"><p><b>気候感度</b>（きこうかんど、<a href="/wiki/%E8%8B%B1%E8%AA%9E" title="英語">英語</a>：climate sensitivity、sensitivity of climate）とは、ある外部的な<a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E5%9B%A0%E5%AD%90" title="気候因子">要因</a>に対して、<a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99" title="気候">気候</a>がどれくらいの影響を受けるかという度合いを表す<a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E5%AD%A6" title="気候学">気候学</a>の用語。 </p> <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="「気候感度」の考え方"><span id=".E3.80.8C.E6.B0.97.E5.80.99.E6.84.9F.E5.BA.A6.E3.80.8D.E3.81.AE.E8.80.83.E3.81.88.E6.96.B9"></span>「気候感度」の考え方</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E6%84%9F%E5%BA%A6&action=edit&section=1" title="節を編集: 「気候感度」の考え方"><span>編集</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>気候感度は、ある<a href="/wiki/%E6%94%BE%E5%B0%84%E5%BC%B7%E5%88%B6%E5%8A%9B" title="放射強制力">放射強制力</a>に対して、どのくらい<a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%97%E6%B8%A9" title="気温">気温</a>（地表平均気温）の上下がもたらされるかという考え方であり、数値的には、単位量（ある一定の放射強制力）あたりの気温の<a href="/w/index.php?title=%E5%A4%89%E5%8C%96%E9%87%8F&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="「変化量」 (存在しないページ)">変化量</a>（長期的な気候の変化後の気温）で表される。 </p><p>ここでの気温の変化量は、気温が上昇している状態ではなく、<a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E3%81%AE%E3%82%A8%E3%83%8D%E3%83%AB%E3%82%AE%E3%83%BC%E5%8F%8E%E6%94%AF" title="地球のエネルギー収支">放射</a>が平衡に達して気温が安定したときを考え、これを<b>平衡気候感度</b>と言う。また、平衡気候感度を算出できない<a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E3%83%A2%E3%83%87%E3%83%AB" title="気候モデル">気候モデル</a>で用いられる、海洋の熱的な変化を考慮した<b>有効気候感度</b>というものもある。こういった平衡を考えずに、あらかじめ決めた期間内での気温の変化量を用いた場合には、気候感度ではなく<b>過渡気候応答</b>（Transient climate response, <b>TCR</b>。気候の漸増応答とも）という。 </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="気候感度の変化と気候変動"><span id=".E6.B0.97.E5.80.99.E6.84.9F.E5.BA.A6.E3.81.AE.E5.A4.89.E5.8C.96.E3.81.A8.E6.B0.97.E5.80.99.E5.A4.89.E5.8B.95"></span>気候感度の変化と気候変動</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E6%84%9F%E5%BA%A6&action=edit&section=2" title="節を編集: 気候感度の変化と気候変動"><span>編集</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>気候感度の大きさが変わると、同じ放射強制力あたりの気温の変化量も変わる。気候感度が良いほど気温の変化量が大きい。 </p><p><a href="/wiki/%E9%9B%B2" title="雲">雲</a>の放射強制力に関する理解が進んでいないため、<a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E3%83%A2%E3%83%87%E3%83%AB" title="気候モデル">気候モデル</a>の結果は、その気候モデルが雲の放射強制力をどのように規定しているかによって大きく左右される<sup id="cite_ref-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>note 1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>note 2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>。気候感度を強めるフィードバックとして特に重要なものに水蒸気フィードバックがある<sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>note 3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>note 4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>。 </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="気候感度の算出例"><span id=".E6.B0.97.E5.80.99.E6.84.9F.E5.BA.A6.E3.81.AE.E7.AE.97.E5.87.BA.E4.BE.8B"></span>気候感度の算出例</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E6%84%9F%E5%BA%A6&action=edit&section=3" title="節を編集: 気候感度の算出例"><span>編集</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>大気中の二酸化炭素 (CO<sub>2</sub>) の濃度が二倍になった時の<a href="/wiki/%E6%94%BE%E5%B0%84%E5%BC%B7%E5%88%B6%E5%8A%9B" title="放射強制力">放射強制力</a>の変化 (Δ<i>F</i>) に対する気温の変化量 (Δ<i>T</i><sub>×2</sub>) は、気候感度パラメータ (<i>λ</i>) を用いて次式で表される。 </p> <dl><dd><span lang="en" class="texhtml">Δ<i>T</i><sub>×2</sub> = <i>λ</i>Δ<i>F</i>.</span></dd></dl> <p>単位はそれぞれ、Δ<i>F</i> が W/m<sup>2</sup>、<i>λ</i> が °C/(W/m<sup>2</sup>)、Δ<i>T</i><sub>×2</sub> が °C である。一般的な気候モデルでは、Δ<i>F</i> の値に 3.7 W/m<sup>2</sup> がしばし用いられている<sup id="cite_ref-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>。現在の気候モデルは気候感度を高めに設定されているとされる<sup id="cite_ref-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>note 5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>note 6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>。最近では、実測値等の観測に基づく研究の進展により、従来考えられていた気候感度よりも低い値を報告する論文も出始めている<sup id="cite_ref-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>note 7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>。 </p> <table class="wikitable"> <caption><b>各種手法を用いたCO<sub>2</sub>倍増時における気温変化の推定例</b> </caption> <tbody><tr> <th width="110" style="text-align:left;background-color:#B0C4DE;">推定値 (℃)</th> <th style="text-align:left;background-color:#B0C4DE;">算出手法</th> <th style="text-align:left;background-color:#B0C4DE;">出典 </th></tr> <tr> <td>5.5 (5–6) </td> <td>放射平衡による数値計算 </td> <td><a href="/wiki/%E3%82%A2%E3%83%AC%E3%83%8B%E3%82%A6%E3%82%B9" class="mw-redirect" title="アレニウス">アレニウス</a> (1896)<sup id="cite_ref-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>2.0 </td> <td>放射平衡による数値計算 </td> <td>G. S. Callendar (1938)<sup id="cite_ref-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>2.36 </td> <td>一次元放射対流平衡モデル </td> <td>S. Manabe and R. T. Wetherald (1967)<sup id="cite_ref-11" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>0.7 </td> <td>拡散雲モデル (diffuse cloud model) </td> <td>B. C. Weare and F. M. Snell (1974)<sup id="cite_ref-12" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>2.9 (極域は7–9) </td> <td>3次元<a href="/wiki/%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E3%83%A2%E3%83%87%E3%83%AB" title="全球気候モデル">全球気候モデル</a> (<a href="/wiki/GCM" class="mw-disambig" title="GCM">General Circulation Model</a>) </td> <td>S. Manabe and R. T. Wetherald (1975)<sup id="cite_ref-13" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>0.8 </td> <td>帯状平均気候モデル </td> <td>O. George and A. Shoshana (1978)<sup id="cite_ref-14" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td><0.25 (低緯度) </td> <td>静的放射フラックスモデル </td> <td>R. E. Newell and T. G. Dopplick (1979)<sup id="cite_ref-15" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>1.5–4.5 </td> <td><a href="/wiki/%E7%B1%B3%E5%9B%BD%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6%E3%82%A2%E3%82%AB%E3%83%87%E3%83%9F%E3%83%BC" title="米国科学アカデミー">米国科学アカデミー</a>における議長提案<sup id="cite_ref-16" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>note 8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td> <td><a href="/wiki/%E3%82%B8%E3%83%A5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%AB%E3%83%BB%E3%82%B0%E3%83%AC%E3%82%B4%E3%83%AA%E3%83%BC%E3%83%BB%E3%83%81%E3%83%A3%E3%83%BC%E3%83%8B%E3%83%BC" title="ジュール・グレゴリー・チャーニー">チャーニー</a>ら (1979)<sup id="cite_ref-17" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-17"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>2 </td> <td>大気-海洋結合モデル (AOGCM) </td> <td>S. Manabe and R. J. Stouffer (1980)<sup id="cite_ref-18" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>0.79 </td> <td>湿潤断熱減率を用いた一次元放射対流平衡モデル </td> <td>J. R. Hummel and W. R. Kuhn (1981)<sup id="cite_ref-19" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>0.3 </td> <td>固定した海面水温を用いた気候モデル </td> <td>W. L. Gates et al. (1981)<sup id="cite_ref-20" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>4 (2.5–5) </td> <td>3次元<a href="/wiki/%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E3%83%A2%E3%83%87%E3%83%AB" title="全球気候モデル">全球気候モデル</a> (Global Climate Model) </td> <td>J. E. Hansen et al. (1984)<sup id="cite_ref-21" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-21"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>0.4 </td> <td>自然界の放射測定実験による解析 </td> <td>S. B. Idso (1998)<sup id="cite_ref-22" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-22"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td><1 </td> <td>観測値とモデルの比較 </td> <td>R. S. Lindzen and C. Giannitsis (2002)<sup id="cite_ref-23" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-23"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>0.75 (<a href="/wiki/%E6%B5%B7%E6%B0%B4%E6%B8%A9#海面水温(SST)" title="海水温">SST</a>は0.5) </td> <td>堆積物などの代替示標 </td> <td>N. J. Shaviv and J. Veizer (2003)<sup id="cite_ref-24" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-24"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>0.8 </td> <td>標準エネルギー収支モデルに基づくデータ解析 </td> <td>D. H. Douglass et al. (2006)<sup id="cite_ref-25" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-25"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>17<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>1.1 (0.6–1.6) </td> <td>海洋の熱容量による解析 </td> <td>S. E. Schwartz (2007)<sup id="cite_ref-26" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-26"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>1.3 (0.9–1.8) </td> <td>エアロゾル、海洋熱輸送の寄与を評価 </td> <td>P. Chylek et al. (2007)<sup id="cite_ref-27" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-27"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>0.5 </td> <td>衛星による放射収支測定 (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Radiation_Budget_Experiment" class="extiw" title="en:Earth Radiation Budget Experiment">ERBE</a>) </td> <td>R. S. Lindzen and Y.-S. Choi (2009)<sup id="cite_ref-28" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-28"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>0.01 </td> <td>断熱モデルを用い大気の鉛直温度構造の安定性を評価 </td> <td>G. V. Chilingar et al. (2009)<sup id="cite_ref-29" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-29"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>21<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>0.5–0.75 </td> <td>リニアモデル<sup id="cite_ref-30" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-30"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>22<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>に基づいた気候感度の再評価 </td> <td>K. Kimoto (2009)<sup id="cite_ref-31" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-31"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>23<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>0.6 </td> <td>衛星観測による放射フラックスの回帰分析 (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clouds_and_the_Earth%27s_Radiant_Energy_System" class="extiw" title="en:Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System">CERES</a>) </td> <td>R. W. Spencer and W. D. Braswell (2010)<sup id="cite_ref-32" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-32"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>24<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>0.6 </td> <td>海面水温および衛星による観測データ解析 (ERBE、CERS) </td> <td>R. S. Lindzen and Y. S. Choi (2011)<sup id="cite_ref-33" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-33"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>25<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>0.8 </td> <td>CO2の<a href="/wiki/%E5%85%89%E5%AD%A6%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%9A%E3%81%95" class="mw-redirect" title="光学的厚さ">光学的厚さ</a>の分光データ測定 </td> <td>A. Laubereau and H. Iglev (2013)<sup id="cite_ref-34" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-34"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>26<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>0.6 </td> <td>エネルギー収支の二層気候モデル </td> <td>H. Harde (2014)<sup id="cite_ref-35" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-35"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>27<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>0.33 </td> <td>二次モデルによる放射強制力の計算 </td> <td>H. D. Lightfoot and O. A. Mamer (2014)<sup id="cite_ref-36" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-36"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>28<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>0.4 </td> <td><a href="/wiki/%E7%86%B1%E6%A9%9F%E9%96%A2" title="熱機関">熱エンジン</a>としての大気伝熱による簡易モデル </td> <td>E. Specht et al. (2016)<sup id="cite_ref-37" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-37"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>29<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>0.6 </td> <td><a href="/wiki/%E3%83%8B%E3%83%A5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%A9%E3%83%AB%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%83%AF%E3%83%BC%E3%82%AF" title="ニューラルネットワーク">ニューラルネットワーク</a>による<a href="/wiki/%E5%8F%A4%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99" class="mw-redirect" title="古気候">古気候</a>プロキシの分析 </td> <td>J. Abbot and J. Marohasy (2017)<sup id="cite_ref-38" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-38"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>30<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>0.7 </td> <td>ライン・バイ・ライン法による放射伝達計算 </td> <td>H. Harde (2017)<sup id="cite_ref-39" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-39"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>31<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr> <tr> <td>0.4 </td> <td>ライン・バイ・ライン法による吸収帯の分光解析 </td> <td>B. M. Smirnov (2018)<sup id="cite_ref-40" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-40"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>32<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr></tbody></table> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="脚注"><span id=".E8.84.9A.E6.B3.A8"></span>脚注</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E6%84%9F%E5%BA%A6&action=edit&section=4" title="節を編集: 脚注"><span>編集</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <div class="noprint" style="float:right; font-size:90%;">[<a href="/wiki/Help:%E8%84%9A%E6%B3%A8/%E8%AA%AD%E8%80%85%E5%90%91%E3%81%91" title="Help:脚注/読者向け"><span title="この欄の操作法">脚注の使い方</span></a>]</div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="出典"><span id=".E5.87.BA.E5.85.B8"></span>出典</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E6%84%9F%E5%BA%A6&action=edit&section=5" title="節を編集: 出典"><span>編集</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <div class="reflist" style="list-style-type: decimal;"> <ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-5"><b><a href="#cite_ref-5">^</a></b> <span class="reference-text"><cite class="citation web" style="font-style:normal">IPCC (2001年). “<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/219.htm">6.3.1 Carbon Dioxide</a>”.  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Harde (2017). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.hindawi.com/journals/ijas/2017/9251034/">“Radiation Transfer Calculations and Assessment of Global Warming by CO2”</a>. <i>International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences</i>. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(%E8%AD%98%E5%88%A5%E5%AD%90)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (識別子)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1155%2F2017%2F9251034">10.1155/2017/9251034</a><span style="display:none;">. <a rel="nofollow" class="external free" href="https://www.hindawi.com/journals/ijas/2017/9251034/">https://www.hindawi.com/journals/ijas/2017/9251034/</a></span>.</cite><span class="Z3988" title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Radiation+Transfer+Calculations+and+Assessment+of+Global+Warming+by+CO2&rft.jtitle=International+Journal+of+Atmospheric+Sciences&rft.aulast=H.+Harde&rft.au=H.+Harde&rft.date=2017&rft_id=info:doi/10.1155%2F2017%2F9251034&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.hindawi.com%2Fjournals%2Fijas%2F2017%2F9251034%2F&rfr_id=info:sid/ja.wikipedia.org:%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E6%84%9F%E5%BA%A6"><span style="display: none;"> </span></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-40"><b><a href="#cite_ref-40">^</a></b> <span class="reference-text"><cite style="font-style:normal" class="citation journal">B. M. Smirnov (2018). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://casf.me/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Smirnov_2018_J._Phys._D3A_Appl._Phys._51_214004.pdf">“Collision and radiative processes in emission of atmospheric carbon dioxide”</a>. <i>Journal of Physics D: Applied Physics</i> <b>51</b> (21): 214004. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(%E8%AD%98%E5%88%A5%E5%AD%90)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (識別子)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1088%2F1361-6463%2Faabac6">10.1088/1361-6463/aabac6</a><span style="display:none;">. <a rel="nofollow" class="external free" href="https://casf.me/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Smirnov_2018_J._Phys._D3A_Appl._Phys._51_214004.pdf">https://casf.me/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Smirnov_2018_J._Phys._D3A_Appl._Phys._51_214004.pdf</a></span>.</cite><span class="Z3988" title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Collision+and+radiative+processes+in+emission+of+atmospheric+carbon+dioxide&rft.jtitle=Journal+of+Physics+D%3A+Applied+Physics&rft.aulast=B.+M.+Smirnov&rft.au=B.+M.+Smirnov&rft.date=2018&rft.volume=51&rft.issue=21&rft.pages=214004&rft_id=info:doi/10.1088%2F1361-6463%2Faabac6&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fcasf.me%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2018%2F07%2FSmirnov_2018_J._Phys._D3A_Appl._Phys._51_214004.pdf&rfr_id=info:sid/ja.wikipedia.org:%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E6%84%9F%E5%BA%A6"><span style="display: none;"> </span></span></span> </li> </ol></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="注釈"><span id=".E6.B3.A8.E9.87.88"></span>注釈</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E6%84%9F%E5%BA%A6&action=edit&section=6" title="節を編集: 注釈"><span>編集</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <div class="reflist" style="list-style-type: decimal;"> <ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-1"><b><a href="#cite_ref-1">^</a></b> <span class="reference-text"><cite style="font-style:normal" class="citation book"><a href="/wiki/%E4%BD%8F%E6%98%8E%E6%AD%A3" title="住明正">住明正</a> 著「2 大気大循環モデル」、<a href="/wiki/%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E5%8C%96%E5%AD%A6%E4%BC%9A" title="日本化学会">日本化学会</a> 編『本音で話そう、地球温暖化』<a href="/wiki/%E4%B8%B8%E5%96%84" class="mw-redirect mw-disambig" title="丸善">丸善</a>、2002年、31頁。<link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r101121245"><a href="/wiki/ISBN" title="ISBN">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/%E7%89%B9%E5%88%A5:%E6%96%87%E7%8C%AE%E8%B3%87%E6%96%99/4621049909" title="特別:文献資料/4621049909">4621049909</a>。「モデルでグローバルな気温が1℃も上がらないようにしようと思えば簡単に出来ます。たとえばアルベドの係数を1％ぐらいずらすとか、少し変えればどうにでもなります。…（中略）…相当多くの部分はやっぱり雲に依っていると思います。雲の出具合は今のモデルでは良く表現されていないけれど、雲の放射特性なんかは、ちょっと変えるだけで結果はいくらでも変わるんですよ。そういう意味では地球の気候をコントロールしているプロセスがもっとたくさんあって、それがまだ解明されていないというのが大きな問題ではないかと思っています。」</cite><span class="Z3988" title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=bookitem&rft.btitle=2+%E5%A4%A7%E6%B0%97%E5%A4%A7%E5%BE%AA%E7%92%B0%E3%83%A2%E3%83%87%E3%83%AB&rft.atitle=%E6%9C%AC%E9%9F%B3%E3%81%A7%E8%A9%B1%E3%81%9D%E3%81%86%E3%80%81%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E6%B8%A9%E6%9A%96%E5%8C%96&rft.aulast=%E4%BD%8F%E6%98%8E%E6%AD%A3&rft.au=%E4%BD%8F%E6%98%8E%E6%AD%A3&rft.date=2002&rft.pages=31%E9%A0%81&rft.pub=%5B%5B%E4%B8%B8%E5%96%84%5D%5D&rft.isbn=4621049909&rfr_id=info:sid/ja.wikipedia.org:%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E6%84%9F%E5%BA%A6"><span style="display: none;"> </span></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-2"><b><a href="#cite_ref-2">^</a></b> <span class="reference-text"><cite style="font-style:normal" class="citation journal">Seiji Yukimoto and Akira Noda (2002). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.mri-jma.go.jp/Dep/cl/cl4/publications/yukimoto_CGER2002.pdf">“Improvements of the Meteorological Research Institute Global Ocean atmosphere Coupled GCM (MRI-CGCM2) and its climate sensitivity”</a>. <i>CGER's Supercomputer Activity Report</i> <b>10</b>: 37-44<span style="display:none;">. <a rel="nofollow" class="external free" href="http://www.mri-jma.go.jp/Dep/cl/cl4/publications/yukimoto_CGER2002.pdf">http://www.mri-jma.go.jp/Dep/cl/cl4/publications/yukimoto_CGER2002.pdf</a></span>. "In the global warming experiments, the effective climate sensitivity is evaluated and found to increase more than 1K with the improved version of the model. Decrease of negative feedback due to cloud forcing can explain the most of the change in climate sensitivity."</cite><span class="Z3988" title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Improvements+of+the+Meteorological+Research+Institute+Global+Ocean+atmosphere+Coupled+GCM+%28MRI-CGCM2%29+and+its+climate+sensitivity&rft.jtitle=CGER%27s+Supercomputer+Activity+Report&rft.aulast=Seiji+Yukimoto+and+Akira+Noda&rft.au=Seiji+Yukimoto+and+Akira+Noda&rft.date=2002&rft.volume=10&rft.pages=37-44&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mri-jma.go.jp%2FDep%2Fcl%2Fcl4%2Fpublications%2Fyukimoto_CGER2002.pdf&rfr_id=info:sid/ja.wikipedia.org:%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E6%84%9F%E5%BA%A6"><span style="display: none;"> </span></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-3"><b><a href="#cite_ref-3">^</a></b> <span class="reference-text"><cite class="citation web" style="font-style:normal">IPCC AR4 WG1 (2007年). “<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.data.kishou.go.jp/climate/cpdinfo/ipcc/ar4/ipcc_ar4_wg1_es_faq_chap8.pdf">概要及びよくある質問と回答第8章気候モデルとその評価</a>”.  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. pp. 65. <span title="">2010年8月24日</span>閲覧。 “水蒸気フィードバックは気候感度を強める最も重要なフィードバックである。”</cite></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-4"><b><a href="#cite_ref-4">^</a></b> <span class="reference-text"><cite style="font-style:normal" class="citation journal">Robert S. Kandel (1981). “Surface temperature sensitivity to increased atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>　”. <i>Nature</i> <b>293</b>: 634-636. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(%E8%AD%98%E5%88%A5%E5%AD%90)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (識別子)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1038%2F293634a0">10.1038/293634a0</a>. "However, the temperature and humidity dependence of the terms of the surface energy budget shows that the surface temperature sensitivity depends critically on the way in which the atmospheric humidity evolves, and on the degree of compensation in the perturbation of the latent and sensible heat fluxes."</cite><span class="Z3988" title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Surface+temperature+sensitivity+to+increased+atmospheric+CO%3Csub%3E2%3C%2Fsub%3E%E3%80%80&rft.jtitle=Nature&rft.aulast=Robert+S.+Kandel&rft.au=Robert+S.+Kandel&rft.date=1981&rft.volume=293&rft.pages=634-636&rft_id=info:doi/10.1038%2F293634a0&rfr_id=info:sid/ja.wikipedia.org:%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E6%84%9F%E5%BA%A6"><span style="display: none;"> </span></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-6"><b><a href="#cite_ref-6">^</a></b> <span class="reference-text"><cite style="font-style:normal" class="citation book">住明正『地球温暖化の真実―先端の気候科学でどこまで解明されているか』<a href="/wiki/%E3%82%A6%E3%82%A7%E3%83%83%E3%82%B8_(%E5%87%BA%E7%89%88%E7%A4%BE)" title="ウェッジ (出版社)">ウェッジ</a>、1999年11月、76頁。<link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r101121245"><a href="/wiki/ISBN" title="ISBN">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/%E7%89%B9%E5%88%A5:%E6%96%87%E7%8C%AE%E8%B3%87%E6%96%99/490059430X" title="特別:文献資料/490059430X">490059430X</a>。「次に大きな問題は、温室効果に伴うとされる昇温量は、それほど大きくないということです。今のところIPCCの報告が数字としては使われており、二酸化炭素倍増時において一･五度から四･五度程度といわれています。ただ、現在の知見ではこの見積りの下のほうが正しいと考えられています。しかしながら信頼できるデータの長さが限られているために、この温室効果によるとされる温度上昇量に対し、観測される自然の変動の振幅のほうが大きくなっています。そのため、この自然変動を除去して、温室効果による温度上昇を推定する必要があります。」</cite><span class="Z3988" title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E6%B8%A9%E6%9A%96%E5%8C%96%E3%81%AE%E7%9C%9F%E5%AE%9F%E2%80%95%E5%85%88%E7%AB%AF%E3%81%AE%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6%E3%81%A7%E3%81%A9%E3%81%93%E3%81%BE%E3%81%A7%E8%A7%A3%E6%98%8E%E3%81%95%E3%82%8C%E3%81%A6%E3%81%84%E3%82%8B%E3%81%8B&rft.aulast=%E4%BD%8F%E6%98%8E%E6%AD%A3&rft.au=%E4%BD%8F%E6%98%8E%E6%AD%A3&rft.date=1999-11&rft.pages=76%E9%A0%81&rft.pub=%5B%5B%E3%82%A6%E3%82%A7%E3%83%83%E3%82%B8+%28%E5%87%BA%E7%89%88%E7%A4%BE%29%7C%E3%82%A6%E3%82%A7%E3%83%83%E3%82%B8%5D%5D&rft.isbn=490059430X&rfr_id=info:sid/ja.wikipedia.org:%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E6%84%9F%E5%BA%A6"><span style="display: none;"> </span></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-7"><b><a href="#cite_ref-7">^</a></b> <span class="reference-text"><cite style="font-style:normal" class="citation book">住明正 著「2 大気大循環モデル」、日本化学会 編『本音で話そう、地球温暖化』丸善、2002年、35頁。<link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r101121245"><a href="/wiki/ISBN" title="ISBN">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/%E7%89%B9%E5%88%A5:%E6%96%87%E7%8C%AE%E8%B3%87%E6%96%99/4621049909" title="特別:文献資料/4621049909">4621049909</a>。「今のモデルでCO<sub>2</sub>を一挙に沢山増やすと、瞬間的にたとえば20℃くらいバーッと温度が上がっていきます。だから今のモデルは非常に温度が上がりやすくなっていると、僕は思っていますが。だけどどこに不備があるかというのは、今の所わからない。」</cite><span class="Z3988" title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=bookitem&rft.btitle=2+%E5%A4%A7%E6%B0%97%E5%A4%A7%E5%BE%AA%E7%92%B0%E3%83%A2%E3%83%87%E3%83%AB&rft.atitle=%E6%9C%AC%E9%9F%B3%E3%81%A7%E8%A9%B1%E3%81%9D%E3%81%86%E3%80%81%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E6%B8%A9%E6%9A%96%E5%8C%96&rft.aulast=%E4%BD%8F%E6%98%8E%E6%AD%A3&rft.au=%E4%BD%8F%E6%98%8E%E6%AD%A3&rft.date=2002&rft.pages=35%E9%A0%81&rft.pub=%E4%B8%B8%E5%96%84&rft.isbn=4621049909&rfr_id=info:sid/ja.wikipedia.org:%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E6%84%9F%E5%BA%A6"><span style="display: none;"> </span></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-8"><b><a href="#cite_ref-8">^</a></b> <span class="reference-text"><cite class="citation web" style="font-style:normal"><a href="/wiki/%E5%AE%89%E4%BA%95%E8%87%B3" title="安井至">安井至</a> (2008年). “<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://allatanys.jp/B001/UGC020001820080727COK00087.html">ＩＰＣＣは温暖化を断言したのか</a>”.  新s あらたにす（日経・朝日・読売）. <span title="">2010年7月23日</span>閲覧。 “最近になって、気候感度はもっと低いのではないか、という論文も出始めている。大気中の温室効果ガスの濃度の推移や、各地の温度変化などのデータが整備され始めたからである。言いかえれば、それなりの研究投資が行われた成果が出始めているのである。したがって、科学的事実としてのIPCCの記述は、近い将来、訂正される可能性がある。”</cite></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-16"><b><a href="#cite_ref-16">^</a></b> <span class="reference-text"> チャーニー報告書（<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/~brianpm/charneyreport.html">The Charney Report 1979</a>）では、<a href="/wiki/%E7%9C%9F%E9%8D%8B%E6%B7%91%E9%83%8E" class="mw-redirect" title="真鍋淑郎">真鍋淑郎</a>は気候モデルの気候感度を2℃、ジェームズ・ハンセン（<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Hansen" class="extiw" title="en:James Hansen">James Hansen</a>）は4℃を提唱し、その中間の3±1.5℃という値がチャーニー議長によって定められた。1982年には二回目の評価「<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://archive.org/details/carbondioxideand003586mbp">Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Second Assessment</a>」が行われたが、1979年のチャーニー報告書の結果を継承することになり、眞鍋またはハンセンが開発したモデルは次第に主流の気候モデルとなって政策立案者や科学者に影響を与えることになった。</span> </li> </ol></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="関連項目"><span id=".E9.96.A2.E9.80.A3.E9.A0.85.E7.9B.AE"></span>関連項目</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E6%84%9F%E5%BA%A6&action=edit&section=7" title="節を編集: 関連項目"><span>編集</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E7%B3%BB" class="mw-redirect" title="気候系">気候系</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%94%BE%E5%B0%84%E5%BC%B7%E5%88%B6%E5%8A%9B" title="放射強制力">放射強制力</a></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="外部リンク"><span id=".E5.A4.96.E9.83.A8.E3.83.AA.E3.83.B3.E3.82.AF"></span>外部リンク</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E6%84%9F%E5%BA%A6&action=edit&section=8" title="節を編集: 外部リンク"><span>編集</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.eic.or.jp/ecoterm/?act=view&serial=2832">気候感度</a> eicネット環境用語集</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://macroscope.world.coocan.jp/ja/text/geosci/ice/1/3.html">1.3 気候感度の概念</a> 阿部彩子, 増田耕一、1993年（HTML版:2002年6月22日, 2011年3月24日移動）、氷床と気候感度</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://macroscope.world.coocan.jp/ja/text/ondanka/daiyonki_gakkai/presenta/index.html">地球温暖化と水循環の変化</a> 増田耕一、海洋研究開発機構地球環境フロンティア研究センター2006年9月26日 (2011年3月24日移動)</li> <li><cite style="font-style:normal" class="citation journal">Hansen, James; et al. (September 2013). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/2001/20120294">“<b>Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide</b>”</a> (English). <i>Royal Society Publishing</i> <b>371</b>. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(%E8%AD%98%E5%88%A5%E5%AD%90)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (識別子)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1098%2Frsta.2012.0294">10.1098/rsta.2012.0294</a><span style="display:none;">. <a rel="nofollow" class="external free" href="http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/2001/20120294">http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/2001/20120294</a></span>.</cite><span class="Z3988" title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=%27%27%27Climate+sensitivity%2C+sea+level+and+atmospheric+carbon+dioxide%27%27%27&rft.jtitle=Royal+Society+Publishing&rft.aulast=Hansen&rft.aufirst=James&rft.au=Hansen%2C%26%2332%3BJames&rft.date=September+2013&rft.volume=371&rft_id=info:doi/10.1098%2Frsta.2012.0294&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Frsta.royalsocietypublishing.org%2Fcontent%2F371%2F2001%2F20120294&rfr_id=info:sid/ja.wikipedia.org:%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E6%84%9F%E5%BA%A6"><span style="display: none;"> </span></span></li></ul> <div class="navbox" aria-labelledby="地球温暖化と気候変動" style="border-collapse:collapse;padding:3px"><table class="nowraplinks hlist mw-collapsible autocollapse navbox-inner" style="background:transparent;color:inherit;min-width:100%;border-spacing:0px;border-collapse:separate"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div style="float:left;width:6em;text-align:left"><div class="noprint plainlinks navbar hlist" style="white-space:nowrap;font-size:60%;font-weight:normal;background-color:transparent;padding:0;color:#000;;border:none;"><ul style="display:inline"><li><a href="/wiki/Template:%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E6%B8%A9%E6%9A%96%E5%8C%96" title="Template:地球温暖化"><span title="このテンプレートを表示します" style="font-size:125%;;;border:none;">表</span></a></li><li><a href="/w/index.php?title=Template%E2%80%90%E3%83%8E%E3%83%BC%E3%83%88:%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E6%B8%A9%E6%9A%96%E5%8C%96&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="「Template‐ノート:地球温暖化」 (存在しないページ)"><span title="このテンプレートのノートを表示します" style="font-size:125%;color:#002bb8;;;border:none;">話</span></a></li><li><a class="external text" href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Template%3A%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E6%B8%A9%E6%9A%96%E5%8C%96&action=edit"><span title="このテンプレートを編集します。保存の前にプレビューを忘れずに。" style="font-size:125%;color:#002bb8;;;border:none;">編</span></a></li><li><a class="external text" href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Template%3A%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E6%B8%A9%E6%9A%96%E5%8C%96&action=history"><span title="このテンプレートの過去の版を表示します" style="font-size:125%;color:#002bb8;;;border:none;">歴</span></a></li></ul></div></div><div id="地球温暖化と気候変動" style="font-size:110%;margin:0 6em"><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E6%B8%A9%E6%9A%96%E5%8C%96" title="地球温暖化">地球温暖化</a>と<a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E5%A4%89%E5%8B%95" title="気候変動">気候変動</a></div></th></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">経過</th><td class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="text-align:left;border-left-width:2px;border-left-style:solid;width:100%;padding:0px"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> </div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="min-width:100%;border-spacing:0px;border-collapse:separate"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/%E5%8F%A4%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E5%AD%A6#地球の気候の歴史" title="古気候学">地球気候史</a></th><td class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="text-align:left;border-left-width:2px;border-left-style:solid;width:100%;padding:0px"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%B7%E6%B2%B3%E6%99%82%E4%BB%A3" title="氷河時代">氷河時代</a> / <a href="/wiki/%E6%9C%80%E7%B5%82%E6%B0%B7%E6%9C%9F" title="最終氷期">最終氷期</a> / <a href="/wiki/%E3%83%A4%E3%83%B3%E3%82%AC%E3%83%BC%E3%83%89%E3%83%AA%E3%82%A2%E3%82%B9" title="ヤンガードリアス">ヤンガードリアス</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%AE%8C%E6%96%B0%E4%B8%96%E3%81%AE%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E6%9C%80%E6%B8%A9%E6%9A%96%E6%9C%9F" title="完新世の気候最温暖期">完新世温暖期</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E3%83%8D%E3%82%AA%E3%82%B0%E3%83%A9%E3%82%B7%E3%82%A8%E3%83%BC%E3%82%B7%E3%83%A7%E3%83%B3" title="ネオグラシエーション">ネオグラシエーション</a> / <a href="/wiki/%E4%B8%AD%E4%B8%96%E3%81%AE%E6%B8%A9%E6%9A%96%E6%9C%9F" title="中世の温暖期">中世温暖期</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%B0%8F%E6%B0%B7%E6%9C%9F" title="小氷期">小氷期</a> / <a href="/wiki/%E3%83%8F%E3%82%A4%E3%82%A8%E3%82%A4%E3%82%BF%E3%82%B9_(%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E6%B8%A9%E6%9A%96%E5%8C%96)" title="ハイエイタス (地球温暖化)">ハイエイタス</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E9%81%8E%E5%8E%BB%E3%81%AE%E6%B0%97%E6%B8%A9%E5%A4%89%E5%8C%96" title="過去の気温変化">過去の気温変化</a> …<a href="/wiki/Category:%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E5%8F%B2" title="Category:気候史">その他</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E6%B8%A9%E6%9A%96%E5%8C%96%E3%81%AB%E9%96%A2%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E5%8B%95%E3%81%8D%E3%81%AE%E6%AD%B4%E5%8F%B2" title="地球温暖化に関する動きの歴史">問題の経過</a></th><td class="navbox-list navbox-even" style="text-align:left;border-left-width:2px;border-left-style:solid;width:100%;padding:0px"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E5%AF%92%E5%86%B7%E5%8C%96" title="地球寒冷化">地球寒冷化</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E4%BC%9A%E8%AD%B0" title="世界気候会議">世界気候会議</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E3%82%B9%E3%82%BF%E3%83%BC%E3%83%B3%E5%A0%B1%E5%91%8A" title="スターン報告">スターン報告</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/IPCC%E7%AC%AC4%E6%AC%A1%E8%A9%95%E4%BE%A1%E5%A0%B1%E5%91%8A%E6%9B%B8" title="IPCC第4次評価報告書">IPCC第4次評価報告書</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/IPCC%E7%AC%AC6%E6%AC%A1%E8%A9%95%E4%BE%A1%E5%A0%B1%E5%91%8A%E6%9B%B8" title="IPCC第6次評価報告書">IPCC第6次評価報告書</a></li> <li><b><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E6%B8%A9%E6%9A%96%E5%8C%96%E3%81%B8%E3%81%AE%E5%AF%BE%E5%BF%9C%E3%81%AE%E5%8B%95%E3%81%8D" title="地球温暖化への対応の動き">近年の地球温暖化対策</a></b></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E6%B8%A9%E6%9A%96%E5%8C%96%E3%81%AE%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0" title="地球温暖化の原因">原因</a></th><td class="navbox-list navbox-even" style="text-align:left;border-left-width:2px;border-left-style:solid;width:100%;padding:0px"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> </div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="min-width:100%;border-spacing:0px;border-collapse:separate"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">要因と<br />メカニズム</th><td class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="text-align:left;border-left-width:2px;border-left-style:solid;width:100%;padding:0px"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E6%B8%A9%E5%AE%A4%E5%8A%B9%E6%9E%9C" title="温室効果">温室効果</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E6%B8%A9%E5%AE%A4%E5%8A%B9%E6%9E%9C%E3%82%AC%E3%82%B9" title="温室効果ガス">温室効果ガス</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%A4%AA%E9%99%BD%E6%94%BE%E5%B0%84" title="太陽放射">太陽放射</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%A4%AA%E9%99%BD%E5%A4%89%E5%8B%95" title="太陽変動">太陽変動</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%97%A5%E5%82%98%E5%8A%B9%E6%9E%9C" title="日傘効果">日傘効果</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%A4%A7%E6%B0%97%E3%82%A8%E3%82%A2%E3%83%AD%E3%82%BE%E3%83%AB%E7%B2%92%E5%AD%90" title="大気エアロゾル粒子">エアロゾル</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E3%82%A2%E3%83%AB%E3%83%99%E3%83%89" title="アルベド">アルベド</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E7%82%AD%E7%B4%A0%E5%BE%AA%E7%92%B0" title="炭素循環">炭素収支</a>（<a href="/wiki/%E5%90%B8%E5%8F%8E%E6%BA%90" class="mw-redirect" title="吸収源">吸収源</a> • <a href="/wiki/%E6%A3%AE%E6%9E%97%E7%A0%B4%E5%A3%8A" title="森林破壊">森林破壊</a>）</li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%B5%B7%E6%B4%8B%E5%BE%AA%E7%92%B0" class="mw-redirect" title="海洋循環">海洋循環</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%A4%A7%E6%B0%97%E5%BE%AA%E7%92%B0" title="大気循環">大気循環</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E3%83%86%E3%83%AC%E3%82%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%82%AF%E3%82%B7%E3%83%A7%E3%83%B3" title="テレコネクション">大気変動</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E3%83%92%E3%83%BC%E3%83%88%E3%82%A2%E3%82%A4%E3%83%A9%E3%83%B3%E3%83%89" title="ヒートアイランド">ヒートアイランド</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E3%83%9F%E3%83%A9%E3%83%B3%E3%82%B3%E3%83%93%E3%83%83%E3%83%81%E3%83%BB%E3%82%B5%E3%82%A4%E3%82%AF%E3%83%AB" title="ミランコビッチ・サイクル">軌道要素変動</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E6%AE%BB%E5%A4%89%E5%8B%95" title="地殻変動">地殻変動</a> …<a href="/wiki/Category:%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E5%A4%89%E5%8B%95%E3%81%AE%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0" title="Category:気候変動の原因">その他</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">考え方</th><td class="navbox-list navbox-even" style="text-align:left;border-left-width:2px;border-left-style:solid;width:100%;padding:0px"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E6%94%BE%E5%B0%84%E5%BC%B7%E5%88%B6%E5%8A%9B" title="放射強制力">放射強制力</a></li> <li><a class="mw-selflink selflink">気候感度</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E5%9B%A0%E5%AD%90" title="気候因子">気候因子</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E3%83%A2%E3%83%87%E3%83%AB" title="気候モデル">気候モデル</a></th><td class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="text-align:left;border-left-width:2px;border-left-style:solid;width:100%;padding:0px"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> <p><a href="/wiki/%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E3%83%A2%E3%83%87%E3%83%AB" title="全球気候モデル">GCM</a> </p> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E6%B8%A9%E6%9A%96%E5%8C%96%E3%81%AE%E5%BD%B1%E9%9F%BF" title="地球温暖化の影響">影響</a></th><td class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="text-align:left;border-left-width:2px;border-left-style:solid;width:100%;padding:0px"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> </div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="min-width:100%;border-spacing:0px;border-collapse:separate"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/%E5%A4%A7%E6%B0%97%E5%9C%8F" title="大気圏">大気圏</a></th><td class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="text-align:left;border-left-width:2px;border-left-style:solid;width:100%;padding:0px;background:#f7f7f7;"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E9%81%8E%E5%8E%BB%E3%81%AE%E6%B0%97%E6%B8%A9%E5%A4%89%E5%8C%96#産業革命以降の世界的な気温変化" title="過去の気温変化">気温上昇</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%B7%E6%B2%B3%E8%9E%8D%E8%A7%A3" title="氷河融解">氷河融解</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E7%95%B0%E5%B8%B8%E6%B0%97%E8%B1%A1" title="異常気象">異常気象の増加・極端化</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E5%A4%89%E5%8B%95" title="気候変動">気候の変化</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%B4%E5%9C%8F" title="水圏">水圏</a></th><td class="navbox-list navbox-even" style="text-align:left;border-left-width:2px;border-left-style:solid;width:100%;padding:0px;background:transparent;"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E6%B5%B7%E9%9D%A2%E4%B8%8A%E6%98%87" title="海面上昇">海面上昇</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%B5%B7%E6%B4%8B%E9%85%B8%E6%80%A7%E5%8C%96" title="海洋酸性化">海洋酸性化</a></li> <li>熱塩循環の停止 …<a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E6%B8%A9%E6%9A%96%E5%8C%96%E3%81%AE%E5%BD%B1%E9%9F%BF" title="地球温暖化の影響">その他</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E6%B8%A9%E6%9A%96%E5%8C%96%E3%81%B8%E3%81%AE%E5%AF%BE%E7%AD%96" title="地球温暖化への対策">対策</a></th><td class="navbox-list navbox-even" style="text-align:left;border-left-width:2px;border-left-style:solid;width:100%;padding:0px"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> </div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="min-width:100%;border-spacing:0px;border-collapse:separate"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E6%B8%A9%E6%9A%96%E5%8C%96%E3%81%AE%E7%B7%A9%E5%92%8C%E7%AD%96" class="mw-redirect" title="地球温暖化の緩和策">緩和策</a></th><td class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="text-align:left;border-left-width:2px;border-left-style:solid;width:100%;padding:0px;background:#f7f7f7;"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E4%BD%8E%E7%82%AD%E7%B4%A0%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A" title="低炭素社会">低炭素社会</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E8%84%B1%E7%82%AD%E7%B4%A0%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A" title="脱炭素社会">脱炭素社会</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E3%82%AB%E3%83%BC%E3%83%9C%E3%83%B3%E3%82%AA%E3%83%95%E3%82%BB%E3%83%83%E3%83%88" title="カーボンオフセット">オフセット</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E3%82%AB%E3%83%BC%E3%83%9C%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8B%E3%83%A5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%88%E3%83%A9%E3%83%AB" title="カーボンニュートラル">ニュートラル</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E7%9C%81%E3%82%A8%E3%83%8D%E3%83%AB%E3%82%AE%E3%83%BC" title="省エネルギー">省エネルギー</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%86%8D%E7%94%9F%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E3%82%A8%E3%83%8D%E3%83%AB%E3%82%AE%E3%83%BC" title="再生可能エネルギー">再生可能エネルギーの利用</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E7%92%B0%E5%A2%83%E7%A8%8E" title="環境税">環境税</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%90%B8%E5%8F%8E%E6%BA%90" class="mw-redirect" title="吸収源">吸収源活動</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%8E%92%E5%87%BA%E5%8F%96%E5%BC%95" class="mw-redirect" title="排出取引">排出取引</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E3%82%AF%E3%83%AA%E3%83%BC%E3%83%B3%E9%96%8B%E7%99%BA%E3%83%A1%E3%82%AB%E3%83%8B%E3%82%BA%E3%83%A0" title="クリーン開発メカニズム">クリーン開発メカニズム</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%85%B1%E5%90%8C%E5%AE%9F%E6%96%BD" title="共同実施">共同実施</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E4%BA%8C%E9%85%B8%E5%8C%96%E7%82%AD%E7%B4%A0%E8%B2%AF%E7%95%99" class="mw-redirect" title="二酸化炭素貯留">二酸化炭素貯留</a></li> <li>カテゴリ <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Category:%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E5%A4%89%E5%8B%95%E3%81%AB%E9%96%A2%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96" title="Category:気候変動に関する政策">温暖化関連政策</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Category:%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E5%A4%89%E5%8B%95%E9%98%B2%E6%AD%A2%E6%B4%BB%E5%8B%95" title="Category:気候変動防止活動">温暖化防止活動</a> …<a href="/wiki/Category:%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E5%A4%89%E5%8B%95%E9%98%B2%E6%AD%A2" title="Category:気候変動防止">その他</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E6%B8%A9%E6%9A%96%E5%8C%96%E3%81%B8%E3%81%AE%E9%81%A9%E5%BF%9C%E7%AD%96" class="mw-redirect" title="地球温暖化への適応策">適応策</a></th><td class="navbox-list navbox-even" style="text-align:left;border-left-width:2px;border-left-style:solid;width:100%;padding:0px;background:transparent;"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> <p><a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E5%A4%89%E5%8B%95%E9%81%A9%E5%BF%9C%E7%AD%96" title="気候変動適応策">気候変動適応策</a>　 </p> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">枠組み</th><td class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="text-align:left;border-left-width:2px;border-left-style:solid;width:100%;padding:0px;background:#f7f7f7;"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E3%83%91%E3%83%AA%E5%8D%94%E5%AE%9A_(%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E5%A4%89%E5%8B%95)" title="パリ協定 (気候変動)">パリ協定</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E5%A4%89%E5%8B%95%E3%81%AB%E9%96%A2%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E9%96%93%E3%83%91%E3%83%8D%E3%83%AB" title="気候変動に関する政府間パネル">IPCC</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%8C%81%E7%B6%9A%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E3%81%AA%E9%96%8B%E7%99%BA%E7%9B%AE%E6%A8%99" title="持続可能な開発目標">持続可能な開発目標(SDGs)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E4%BA%AC%E9%83%BD%E8%AD%B0%E5%AE%9A%E6%9B%B8" title="京都議定書">京都議定書</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E3%83%9D%E3%82%B9%E3%83%88%E4%BA%AC%E9%83%BD%E8%AD%B0%E5%AE%9A%E6%9B%B8" title="ポスト京都議定書">ポスト京都</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E5%A4%89%E5%8B%95%E6%9E%A0%E7%B5%84%E6%9D%A1%E7%B4%84" class="mw-redirect" title="気候変動枠組条約">気候変動枠組条約</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E3%82%AF%E3%83%AA%E3%83%BC%E3%83%B3%E9%96%8B%E7%99%BA%E3%81%A8%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E3%81%AB%E9%96%A2%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E3%82%A2%E3%82%B8%E3%82%A2%E5%A4%AA%E5%B9%B3%E6%B4%8B%E3%83%91%E3%83%BC%E3%83%88%E3%83%8A%E3%83%BC%E3%82%B7%E3%83%83%E3%83%97" title="クリーン開発と気候に関するアジア太平洋パートナーシップ">APP</a></li> <li>ECCP<a href="/wiki/%E6%AC%A7%E5%B7%9E%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E5%A4%89%E5%8B%95%E3%83%97%E3%83%AD%E3%82%B0%E3%83%A9%E3%83%A0" title="欧州気候変動プログラム">欧州気候変動プログラム</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9B%BD%E9%9A%9B%E6%B8%AC%E5%9C%B0%E5%AD%A6%E3%83%BB%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E7%89%A9%E7%90%86%E5%AD%A6%E9%80%A3%E5%90%88" title="国際測地学・地球物理学連合">IUGG</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9B%BD%E9%9A%9B%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%86%E5%AD%A6%E9%80%A3%E5%90%88" title="国際地理学連合">IGU</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E5%9C%B0%E5%9B%B3" title="地球地図">地球地図</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9B%BD%E9%80%A3%E9%98%B2%E7%81%BD%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E4%BC%9A%E8%AD%B0#第3回WCDRR" title="国連防災世界会議">仙台防災枠組</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E9%9D%9E%E5%B8%B8%E4%BA%8B%E6%85%8B%E5%AE%A3%E8%A8%80" title="気候非常事態宣言">気候非常事態宣言</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/C40%E9%83%BD%E5%B8%82%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E3%83%AA%E3%83%BC%E3%83%80%E3%83%BC%E3%82%B7%E3%83%83%E3%83%97%E3%82%B0%E3%83%AB%E3%83%BC%E3%83%97" title="C40都市気候リーダーシップグループ">C40都市気候リーダーシップグループ</a></li> <li>カテゴリ（…<a href="/wiki/Category:%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E5%A4%89%E5%8B%95%E9%96%A2%E9%80%A3%E7%B5%84%E7%B9%94" title="Category:気候変動関連組織">その他</a>）</li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E6%B8%A9%E6%9A%96%E5%8C%96%E3%81%AB%E9%96%A2%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E8%AB%96%E4%BA%89" title="地球温暖化に関する論争">議論</a></th><td class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="text-align:left;border-left-width:2px;border-left-style:solid;width:100%;padding:0px"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E6%B8%A9%E6%9A%96%E5%8C%96%E3%81%AB%E5%AF%BE%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E6%87%90%E7%96%91%E8%AB%96" title="地球温暖化に対する懐疑論">懐疑論</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%9A%B4%E8%B5%B0%E6%B8%A9%E5%AE%A4%E5%8A%B9%E6%9E%9C" title="暴走温室効果">暴走温室効果</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E3%82%B9%E3%83%99%E3%83%B3%E3%82%B9%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AB%E3%82%AF%E5%8A%B9%E6%9E%9C" title="スベンスマルク効果">スベンスマルク効果</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E3%83%9B%E3%83%83%E3%82%B1%E3%83%BC%E3%82%B9%E3%83%86%E3%82%A3%E3%83%83%E3%82%AF%E8%AB%96%E4%BA%89" title="ホッケースティック論争">ホッケースティック論争</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E3%83%A6%E3%83%8B%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%83%BB%E3%83%A1%E3%83%BC%E3%83%AB%E6%B5%81%E5%87%BA%E4%BA%8B%E4%BB%B6" title="気候研究ユニット・メール流出事件">クライメイトゲート事件</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="navbox-abovebelow" colspan="2"> <span typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/%E3%83%95%E3%82%A1%E3%82%A4%E3%83%AB:Folder_Hexagonal_Icon.svg" class="mw-file-description" title="カテゴリ"><img alt="カテゴリ" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/48/Folder_Hexagonal_Icon.svg/16px-Folder_Hexagonal_Icon.svg.png" decoding="async" width="16" height="14" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/48/Folder_Hexagonal_Icon.svg/24px-Folder_Hexagonal_Icon.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/48/Folder_Hexagonal_Icon.svg/32px-Folder_Hexagonal_Icon.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="36" data-file-height="31" /></a></span> カテゴリ：<b><a href="/wiki/Category:%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E6%B8%A9%E6%9A%96%E5%8C%96" title="Category:地球温暖化">地球温暖化</a>・<a href="/wiki/Category:%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E5%A4%89%E5%8B%95" title="Category:気候変動">気候変動</a></b></td></tr></tbody></table></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r96783592">.mw-parser-output .asbox{position:relative;overflow:hidden}.mw-parser-output .asbox table{background:transparent}.mw-parser-output .asbox p{margin:0}.mw-parser-output .asbox p+p{margin-top:0.25em}.mw-parser-output .asbox{font-size:90%}.mw-parser-output .asbox-note{font-size:90%}.mw-parser-output .asbox .navbar{position:absolute;top:-0.90em;right:1em;display:none}</style><div role="note" class="metadata plainlinks asbox stub"><table role="presentation"><tbody><tr class="noresize"><td><span typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/%E3%83%95%E3%82%A1%E3%82%A4%E3%83%AB:Weather-more-clouds.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="スタブアイコン" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/91/Weather-more-clouds.svg/35px-Weather-more-clouds.svg.png" decoding="async" width="35" height="35" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/91/Weather-more-clouds.svg/53px-Weather-more-clouds.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/91/Weather-more-clouds.svg/70px-Weather-more-clouds.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="48" data-file-height="48" /></a></span></td><td><p class="asbox-body">この項目は、<b><a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%97%E8%B1%A1%E5%AD%A6" title="気象学">気象学</a>や<a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E5%AD%A6" title="気候学">気候学</a></b>に関連した<b><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:%E3%82%B9%E3%82%BF%E3%83%96" title="Wikipedia:スタブ">書きかけの項目</a></b>です。<a class="external text" href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E6%84%9F%E5%BA%A6&action=edit">この項目を加筆・訂正</a>などしてくださる<a href="/wiki/Category:%E6%B0%97%E8%B1%A1%E5%AD%A6%E3%83%BB%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99%E5%AD%A6%E9%96%A2%E9%80%A3%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B9%E3%82%BF%E3%83%96%E9%A0%85%E7%9B%AE" title="Category:気象学・気候学関連のスタブ項目">協力者を求めています</a>（<a href="/wiki/%E3%83%97%E3%83%AD%E3%82%B8%E3%82%A7%E3%82%AF%E3%83%88:%E6%B0%97%E8%B1%A1%E3%81%A8%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99" title="プロジェクト:気象と気候">プロジェクト:気象と気候</a>/<a href="/wiki/Portal:%E6%B0%97%E8%B1%A1%E3%81%A8%E6%B0%97%E5%80%99" title="Portal:気象と気候">Portal:気象と気候</a>）。</p></td></tr></tbody></table><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r99966302">.mw-parser-output .hlist ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol{padding-left:0}.mw-parser-output .hlist li,.mw-parser-output .hlist dd,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt{margin-right:0;display:inline-block;white-space:nowrap}.mw-parser-output .hlist dt:after,.mw-parser-output .hlist dd:after,.mw-parser-output .hlist li:after{white-space:normal}.mw-parser-output .hlist li:after,.mw-parser-output .hlist dd:after{content:" ·\a0 ";font-weight:bold}.mw-parser-output .hlist dt:after{content:": "}.mw-parser-output .hlist-pipe dd:after,.mw-parser-output .hlist-pipe li:after{content:" |\a0 ";font-weight:normal}.mw-parser-output .hlist-hyphen dd:after,.mw-parser-output .hlist-hyphen li:after{content:" -\a0 ";font-weight:normal}.mw-parser-output .hlist-comma dd:after,.mw-parser-output .hlist-comma li:after{content:"、";font-weight:normal}.mw-parser-output .hlist-slash dd:after,.mw-parser-output .hlist-slash li:after{content:" /\a0 ";font-weight:normal}.mw-parser-output .hlist dd:last-child:after,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt:last-child:after,.mw-parser-output .hlist li:last-child:after{content:none}.mw-parser-output .hlist dd dd:first-child:before,.mw-parser-output .hlist dd dt:first-child:before,.mw-parser-output .hlist dd li:first-child:before,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt dd:first-child:before,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt dt:first-child:before,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt li:first-child:before,.mw-parser-output .hlist li dd:first-child:before,.mw-parser-output .hlist li dt:first-child:before,.mw-parser-output .hlist li li:first-child:before{content:" (";font-weight:normal}.mw-parser-output .hlist dd dd:last-child:after,.mw-parser-output .hlist dd dt:last-child:after,.mw-parser-output .hlist dd li:last-child:after,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt dd:last-child:after,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt dt:last-child:after,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt li:last-child:after,.mw-parser-output .hlist li dd:last-child:after,.mw-parser-output .hlist li dt:last-child:after,.mw-parser-output .hlist li li:last-child:after{content:")\a0 ";font-weight:normal}.mw-parser-output .hlist ol{counter-reset:listitem}.mw-parser-output .hlist ol>li{counter-increment:listitem}.mw-parser-output .hlist ol>li:before{content:" "counter(listitem)" 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