Smoking and healthcare expenditure reductions associated with the California Tobacco Control Program, 1989 to 2019: A predictive validation

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usa-input-error-message selection-validation-message"> Name must be less than 100 characters </div> </div> <div class="action-panel-control-wrap existing-collections-controls"> <label for="collections-action-panel-add-to-existing" class="action-panel-label"> Choose a collection: </label> <select id="collections-action-panel-add-to-existing" class="action-panel-selector collections-action-add-to-existing" data-ga-category="save_share" data-ga-action="select_collection" data-ga-label="($('#collections-action-add-to-existing').val() === 'Favorites') ? 'Favorites' : 'non_favorites_collection'"> </select> <div class="collections-retry-load-on-error usa-input-error-message selection-validation-message"> Unable to load your collection due to an error<br> <a href="#">Please try again</a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="action-panel-actions"> <button class="action-panel-submit" type="submit" data-loading-label="Adding..." data-pinger-ignore data-ga-category="save_share" data-ga-action="collections" data-ga-label="add"> Add </button> <button class="action-panel-cancel" aria-label="Close 'Add to Collections' panel" ref="linksrc=close_collections_panel" aria-controls="collections-action-panel" aria-expanded="false" data-ga-category="save_share" data-ga-action="collections" data-ga-label="cancel"> Cancel </button> </div> </form> </div> </div> <div id="bibliography-action-panel" class="bibliography-action-panel action-panel in-progress-dots-panel" aria-hidden="true" data-bibliography-open-panel-enabled="false" data-bibliography-open-panel-url-hash="#open-bibliography-panel"> <div class="inner-wrap"> <h3 class="action-panel-heading"> Add to My Bibliography </h3> <form id="bibliography-action-panel-form" class="bibliography-action-panel-form action-panel-content action-form action-panel-smaller-selectors" data-add-to-bibliography-max-amount="100" data-add-to-bibliography-batch-size="10" data-bibliography-delegates-url="/list-bibliography-delegates/" data-add-to-bibliography-url="/add-to-bibliography/" data-get-article-ids-by-search-url="/get-article-ids-by-search/" data-mybib-root-url="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/myncbi/collections/mybibliography/"> <input type="hidden" name="csrfmiddlewaretoken" value="M6c6SRxN4pFiaAejfQBZQgQZ3tLQpIeAGbu7v1DsHN8xqXHT70qcWB6S8Hqt7z1G"> <div class="action-panel-control-wrap bibliographies-controls"> <div class="choice-group"> <ul class="bibliographies-action-add radio-group-items"> <li> <input name="bibliography" id="my-bibliography" class="my-bibliography" type="radio" checked/> <label for="my-bibliography">My Bibliography</label> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="bibliographies-retry-load-on-error usa-input-error-message selection-validation-message"> Unable to load your delegates due to an error<br> <a href="#">Please try again</a> </div> <div class="action-panel-actions"> <button class="action-panel-submit" type="submit" data-loading-label="Adding..." data-pinger-ignore> Add </button> <button class="action-panel-cancel" aria-label="Close 'Add to bibliography' panel" ref="linksrc=close_bibliography_panel" aria-controls="bibliography-action-panel" aria-expanded="false" data-ga-category="save_share" data-ga-action="mybib" data-ga-label="cancel"> Cancel </button> </div> </form> </div> </div> <div id="saved-search-action-panel" class="saved-search-action-panel action-panel " aria-hidden="true" data-saved-search-open-panel-enabled="false" data-saved-search-open-panel-url-hash="#open-saved-search-panel"> <div class="inner-wrap"> <h2 class="action-panel-heading"> Your saved search </h2> <form id="saved-search-action-panel-form" class="saved-search-action-panel-form action-panel-content action-form" data-create-saved-search-url="/create-saved-search/" data-try-search-terms-url="/try-search-term/" data-saved-search-root-url="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/myncbi/searches/"> <input type="hidden" name="csrfmiddlewaretoken" value="M6c6SRxN4pFiaAejfQBZQgQZ3tLQpIeAGbu7v1DsHN8xqXHT70qcWB6S8Hqt7z1G"> <div class="action-panel-control-wrap"> <label for="saved-search-name" class="action-panel-label saved-search-name-label required-field-asterisk"> Name of saved search: </label> <input maxlength="200" type="text" name="saved-search-name" id="saved-search-name" class="saved-search-name" value="" required pattern="[^"&=<>\/]*" title="The following characters are not allowed in the Name field: "&=<>/"> </div> <div class="action-panel-control-wrap"> <label for="saved-search-term" class="action-panel-label required-field-asterisk"> Search terms: </label> <textarea name="saved-search-term" id="saved-search-term" class="saved-search-term" required></textarea> </div> <div class="test-search-term-wrap"> <a href="#" class="try-search-term">Test search terms</a> </div> <div class="choice-group action-panel-extra-margin-top"> <span class="action-panel-label" id="fieldset-label"> Would you like email updates of new search results? </span> <fieldset id="saved-search-alert" aria-describedby="fieldset-label"> <legend class="usa-sr-only">Saved Search Alert Radio Buttons</legend> <ul class="radio-group-items"> <li> <input type="radio" id="saved-search-alert-yes" class="saved-search-alert-yes" name="saved-search-alert" value="yes" checked> <label for="saved-search-alert-yes" class="action-panel-label">Yes</label> </li> <li> <input aria-label="No radio input" type="radio" id="saved-search-alert-no" class="saved-search-alert-no" name="saved-search-alert" value="no"> <label for="saved-search-alert-no" class="action-panel-label">No</label> </li> </ul> </fieldset> </div> <div class="alert-schedule-wrap"> <div class="action-panel-control-wrap"> <label class="action-panel-label"> Email: </label> <span aria-label="Email address" id="saved-search-email" class="action-panel-label"><span class="action-panel-label-bold"></span> (<a class="myncbi-account-settings" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/account/settings/">change</a>)</span> </div> <div class="action-panel-control-wrap action-panel-extra-margin-top"> <label for="saved-search-frequency" class="action-panel-label"> Frequency: </label> <select id="saved-search-frequency" class="no-border-panel-selector saved-search-frequency"> <option value="monthly">Monthly</option> <option value="weekly">Weekly</option> <option value="daily">Daily</option> </select> </div> <div class="action-panel-control-wrap saved-search-monthly-additional"> <label for="saved-search-monthly-on-day" class="action-panel-label"> Which day? </label> <select id="saved-search-monthly-on-day" class="no-border-panel-selector"> <option value="Sunday">The first Sunday</option> <option value="Monday">The first Monday</option> <option value="Tuesday">The first Tuesday</option> <option value="Wednesday">The first Wednesday</option> <option value="Thursday">The first Thursday</option> <option value="Friday">The first Friday</option> <option value="Saturday">The first Saturday</option> <option value="day">The first day</option> <option value="weekday">The first weekday</option> </select> </div> <div class="action-panel-control-wrap saved-search-weekly-additional"> <label for="saved-search-weekly-on-day" class="action-panel-label"> Which day? </label> <select id="saved-search-weekly-on-day" class="no-border-panel-selector saved-search-weekly-on-day"> <option value="Sunday">Sunday</option> <option value="Monday">Monday</option> <option value="Tuesday">Tuesday</option> <option value="Wednesday">Wednesday</option> <option value="Thursday">Thursday</option> <option value="Friday">Friday</option> <option value="Saturday">Saturday</option> </select> </div> <div class="action-panel-control-wrap"> <label for="saved-search-report" class="action-panel-label"> Report format: </label> <select id="saved-search-report" class="no-border-panel-selector saved-search-report"> <option value="DocSum">Summary</option> <option value="DocSumText">Summary (text)</option> <option value="Abstract">Abstract</option> <option value="AbstractText">Abstract (text)</option> <option value="MEDLINE">PubMed</option> </select> </div> <div class="action-panel-control-wrap"> <label for="saved-search-amount" class="action-panel-label"> Send at most: </label> <select id="saved-search-amount" class="no-border-panel-selector saved-search-amount"> <option value="1">1 item</option> <option value="5" selected>5 items</option> <option value="10">10 items</option> <option value="20">20 items</option> <option value="50">50 items</option> <option value="100">100 items</option> <option value="200">200 items</option> </select> </div> <div> <input type="checkbox" id="saved-search-send-if-no-result" class="saved-search-send-if-no-result" name="saved-search-send-if-no-result"> <label for="saved-search-send-if-no-result" class="action-panel-label smaller-checkbox"> Send even when there aren't any new results </label> </div> <div class="action-panel-control-wrap option-text-in-email-wrap"> <label for="saved-search-email-text" class="action-panel-label"> Optional text in email: </label> <textarea name="saved-search-email-text" id="saved-search-email-text" class="saved-search-email-text"></textarea> </div> </div> <div class="action-panel-actions"> <button class="action-panel-submit" type="submit" data-loading-label="Saving..." data-ga-category="save_share" data-ga-action="alert" data-ga-label="save"> Save </button> <button class="action-panel-cancel" aria-label="Close 'Your saved search' panel" ref="linksrc=close_saved_search_panel" aria-controls="saved-search-action-panel" aria-expanded="false" data-ga-category="save_share" data-ga-action="alert" data-ga-label="cancel"> Cancel </button> </div> </form> </div> </div> <div id="citation-manager-action-panel" class="citation-manager-action-panel action-panel" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="inner-wrap"> <h2 class="action-panel-heading"> Create a file for external citation management software </h2> <form id="citation-manager-action-panel-form" class="action-panel-content action-form" action="/results-export-ids/" data-by-search-action="/results-export-search-data/" data-by-ids-action="/results-export-ids/" method="post" data-by-search-method="post" data-by-ids-method="post"> <input type="hidden" name="csrfmiddlewaretoken" value="M6c6SRxN4pFiaAejfQBZQgQZ3tLQpIeAGbu7v1DsHN8xqXHT70qcWB6S8Hqt7z1G"> <input name="results-format" type="hidden" value="pubmed"/> <div class="action-panel-actions"> <button class="action-panel-submit" type="submit" data-loading-label="Sending..." data-ga-category="save_share" data-ga-action="citation_manager" data-ga-label="save"> Create file </button> <button class="action-panel-cancel" aria-label="Close 'Send citations to citation manager' panel" ref="linksrc=close_citation_manager_panel" aria-controls="citation-manager-action-panel" aria-expanded="false" data-ga-category="save_share" data-ga-action="citation_manager" data-ga-label="cancel"> Cancel </button> </div> </form> </div> </div> <div id="rss-action-panel" class="rss-action-panel action-panel " aria-hidden="true"> <div class="inner-wrap"> <h2 class="action-panel-heading"> Your RSS Feed </h2> <form id="rss-action-panel-form" class="rss-action-panel-form action-panel-content action-form" data-create-rss-feed-url="/create-rss-feed-url/" data-search-form-term-value=""> <input type="hidden" name="csrfmiddlewaretoken" value="M6c6SRxN4pFiaAejfQBZQgQZ3tLQpIeAGbu7v1DsHN8xqXHT70qcWB6S8Hqt7z1G"> <div class="action-panel-control-wrap"> <label for="rss-name" class="action-panel-label required-field-asterisk"> Name of RSS Feed: </label> <input maxlength="200" placeholder="Name" type="text" name="rss-name" id="rss-name" class="rss-name" value='' required pattern="[^"&=<>\/]*" title="The following characters are not allowed in the Name field: "&=<>/"> </div> <div class="rss-limit-wrap"> <div class="action-panel-control-wrap action-panel-extra-margin-top"> <label for="rss-limit" class="action-panel-label"> Number of items displayed: </label> <select id="rss-limit" class="no-border-panel-selector rss-limit"> <option value="5">5</option> <option value="10">10</option> <option value="15" selected="selected">15</option> <option value="20">20</option> <option value="50">50</option> <option value="100">100</option> </select> </div> </div> <div class="action-panel-actions"> <button class="action-panel-submit" type="submit" data-loading-label="Creating..." data-ga-category="save_share" data-ga-action="alert" data-ga-label="save"> Create RSS </button> <button class="action-panel-cancel" aria-label="Close 'Your RSS' panel" ref="linksrc=close_rss_panel" aria-controls="rss-action-panel" aria-expanded="false" data-ga-category="save_share" data-ga-action="alert" data-ga-label="cancel"> Cancel </button> </div> <div class="action-panel-control-wrap rss-link-copy-wrap"> <label for="rss-link" class="usa-sr-only">RSS Link</label> <input placeholder="Your RSS Feed Link" type="text" name="rss-link" id="rss-link" class="rss-link" title="RSS Link"> <button type="button" disabled class="rss-link-copy-button disabled" data-ga-category="save_share" data-ga-action="rss" data-ga-label="copy"> Copy </button> </div> </form> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="article-page" id="article-page" data-article-pmid="36928830"> <aside class="page-sidebar"> <div class="inner-wrap"> <div class="full-text-links"> <div class="full-view"> <h3 class="title"> Full text links </h3> <div class="full-text-links-list"> <a class="link-item dialog-focus" 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required-field-asterisk"> Name your collection: </label><input type="text" name="add-to-new-collection" id="collections-action-dialog-add-to-new" class="collections-action-add-to-new" pattern="[^"&=<>\/]*" title="The following characters are not allowed in the Name field: "&=<>/" maxlength="100" data-ga-category="collections_button" data-ga-action="create_collection" data-ga-label="non_favorties_collection"><div class="collections-new-name-too-long usa-input-error-message selection-validation-message"> Name must be less than 100 characters </div></div><div class="action-panel-control-wrap existing-collections-controls"><label for="collections-action-dialog-add-to-existing" class="action-panel-label"> Choose a collection: </label><select id="collections-action-dialog-add-to-existing" class="action-panel-selector collections-action-add-to-existing" data-ga-category="collections_button" data-ga-action="select_collection" data-ga-label="($('.collections-action-add-to-existing').val() === 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'Favorites' : 'non_favorites_collection'"></select><div class="collections-retry-load-on-error usa-input-error-message selection-validation-message"> Unable to load your collection due to an error<br><a href="#">Please try again</a></div></div></div><div class="action-panel-actions"><button class="action-panel-submit" type="submit" data-loading-label="Adding..." data-pinger-ignore data-ga-category="collections_button" data-ga-action="click" data-ga-label="add"> Add </button><button class="action-panel-cancel" aria-label="Close 'Add to Collections' panel" ref="linksrc=close_collections_panel" aria-controls="collections-action-panel" aria-expanded="false" data-ga-category="collections_button" data-ga-action="click" data-ga-label="cancel"> Cancel </button></div></form></div></div></div></div><button class="more-actions-button more-actions-dialog-trigger" title="Open dialog with more actions to take" ref="linksrc=more_actions_btn"></button><div class="display-options" 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Lightwood">James M Lightwood</a><sup class="affiliation-links"><span class="author-sup-separator"> </span><a class="affiliation-link" title="Department of Clinical Pharmacy, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America." href="#full-view-affiliation-1" ref="linksrc=author_aff"> 1 </a></sup><span class="comma">, </span></span><span class="authors-list-item "><a class="full-name" href="/?term=Anderson+S&cauthor_id=36928830" ref="linksrc=author_name_link" data-ga-category="search" data-ga-action="author_link" data-ga-label="Steve Anderson">Steve Anderson</a><sup class="affiliation-links"><span class="author-sup-separator"> </span><a class="affiliation-link" title="JPMorgan Chase & Co., San Francisco, California, United States of America." href="#full-view-affiliation-2" ref="linksrc=author_aff"> 2 </a><span class="author-sup-separator"> </span><a class="affiliation-link" title="Analytical Steve Consulting, San Francisco, California, United States of America." href="#full-view-affiliation-3" ref="linksrc=author_aff"> 3 </a></sup><span class="comma">, </span></span><span class="authors-list-item "><a class="full-name" href="/?term=Glantz+SA&cauthor_id=36928830" ref="linksrc=author_name_link" data-ga-category="search" data-ga-action="author_link" data-ga-label="Stanton A Glantz">Stanton A Glantz</a><sup class="affiliation-links"><span class="author-sup-separator"> </span><a class="affiliation-link" title="Department of Medicine, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, Philip R. Lee Institute for Health Policy Studies, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America." href="#full-view-affiliation-4" ref="linksrc=author_aff"> 4 </a></sup></span> </div> </div> </div> <div class="short-article-details"> Affiliations <button class="more-details" id="toggle-authors" data-alt-text="Collapse" aria-controls="expanded-authors" aria-expanded="false" data-pinger-ignore data-fetch-url="/36928830/long-authors/" data-id-prefix=""> <span class="title"> Expand </span> </button> </div> <div class="extended-article-details" id="expanded-authors" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="expanded-authors" id="full-view-expanded-authors"> <div class="affiliations"> <h3 class="title"> Affiliations </h3> <ul class="item-list"> <li data-affiliation-id="full-view-affiliation-1" id="full-view-affiliation-1" ><sup class="key">1</sup> Department of Clinical Pharmacy, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America.</li> <li data-affiliation-id="full-view-affiliation-2" id="full-view-affiliation-2" ><sup class="key">2</sup> JPMorgan Chase & Co., San Francisco, California, United States of America.</li> <li data-affiliation-id="full-view-affiliation-3" id="full-view-affiliation-3" ><sup class="key">3</sup> Analytical Steve Consulting, San Francisco, California, United States of America.</li> <li data-affiliation-id="full-view-affiliation-4" id="full-view-affiliation-4" ><sup class="key">4</sup> Department of Medicine, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, Philip R. Lee Institute for Health Policy Studies, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America.</li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <ul class="identifiers" id="full-view-identifiers"> <li> <span class="identifier pubmed"> <span class="id-label"> PMID: </span> <strong class="current-id" title="PubMed ID">36928830</strong> </span> </li> <li> <span class="identifier pmc"> <span class="id-label"> PMCID: </span> <a class="id-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener" ref="linksrc=article_id_link&article_id=PMC10019627&id_type=PMC" href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10019627/" data-ga-category="full_text" data-ga-action="PMCID" > PMC10019627 </a> </span> </li> <li> <span class="identifier doi"> <span class="id-label"> DOI: </span> <a class="id-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener" ref="linksrc=article_id_link&article_id=10.1371/journal.pone.0263579&id_type=DOI" href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0263579" data-ga-category="full_text" data-ga-action="DOI" > 10.1371/journal.pone.0263579 </a> </span> </li> </ul> <div class="in-clipboard-label " hidden> Item in Clipboard </div> </div> <div class="short-view" id="short-view-heading"> <h1 class="heading-title"> Smoking and healthcare expenditure reductions associated with the California Tobacco Control Program, 1989 to 2019: A predictive validation </h1> <div class="short-citation"> <span class="authors-list"> <span class="authors-list-item "><span class="full-name">James M Lightwood</span><span class="citation-separator"> et al.</span></span> </span> <span class="citation-journal"> PLoS One<span class="citation-separator">.</span> </span> <span class="date"> <time class="citation-year" datetime="2023">2023</time><span class="citation-separator">.</span> </span> </div> <div class="more-article-details-section with-display-settings"> <button class="more-article-details" id="toggle-article-details" data-alt-text="Hide details" ref="linksrc=toggle_article_details" 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class="authors-list"> <span class="authors-list-item "><a class="full-name" href="/?term=Lightwood+JM&cauthor_id=36928830" ref="linksrc=author_name_link" data-ga-category="search" data-ga-action="author_link" data-ga-label="James M Lightwood">James M Lightwood</a><sup class="affiliation-links"><span class="author-sup-separator"> </span><a class="affiliation-link" title="Department of Clinical Pharmacy, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America." href="#short-view-affiliation-1" ref="linksrc=author_aff"> 1 </a></sup><span class="comma">, </span></span><span class="authors-list-item "><a class="full-name" href="/?term=Anderson+S&cauthor_id=36928830" ref="linksrc=author_name_link" data-ga-category="search" data-ga-action="author_link" data-ga-label="Steve Anderson">Steve Anderson</a><sup class="affiliation-links"><span class="author-sup-separator"> </span><a class="affiliation-link" title="JPMorgan Chase & Co., San Francisco, California, United States of America." href="#short-view-affiliation-2" ref="linksrc=author_aff"> 2 </a><span class="author-sup-separator"> </span><a class="affiliation-link" title="Analytical Steve Consulting, San Francisco, California, United States of America." href="#short-view-affiliation-3" ref="linksrc=author_aff"> 3 </a></sup><span class="comma">, </span></span><span class="authors-list-item "><a class="full-name" href="/?term=Glantz+SA&cauthor_id=36928830" ref="linksrc=author_name_link" data-ga-category="search" data-ga-action="author_link" data-ga-label="Stanton A Glantz">Stanton A Glantz</a><sup class="affiliation-links"><span class="author-sup-separator"> </span><a class="affiliation-link" title="Department of Medicine, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, Philip R. Lee Institute for Health Policy Studies, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America." href="#short-view-affiliation-4" ref="linksrc=author_aff"> 4 </a></sup></span> </div> </div> <div class="affiliations"> <h3 class="title"> Affiliations </h3> <ul class="item-list"> <li data-affiliation-id="short-view-affiliation-1" id="short-view-affiliation-1" ><sup class="key">1</sup> Department of Clinical Pharmacy, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America.</li> <li data-affiliation-id="short-view-affiliation-2" id="short-view-affiliation-2" ><sup class="key">2</sup> JPMorgan Chase & Co., San Francisco, California, United States of America.</li> <li data-affiliation-id="short-view-affiliation-3" id="short-view-affiliation-3" ><sup class="key">3</sup> Analytical Steve Consulting, San Francisco, California, United States of America.</li> <li data-affiliation-id="short-view-affiliation-4" id="short-view-affiliation-4" ><sup class="key">4</sup> Department of Medicine, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, Philip R. Lee Institute for Health Policy Studies, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America.</li> </ul> </div> </div> <ul class="identifiers" id="short-view-identifiers"> <li> <span class="identifier pubmed"> <span class="id-label"> PMID: </span> <strong class="current-id" title="PubMed ID">36928830</strong> </span> </li> <li> <span class="identifier pmc"> <span class="id-label"> PMCID: </span> <a class="id-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener" ref="linksrc=article_id_link&article_id=PMC10019627&id_type=PMC" href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10019627/" data-ga-category="full_text" data-ga-action="PMCID" > PMC10019627 </a> </span> </li> <li> <span class="identifier doi"> <span class="id-label"> DOI: </span> <a class="id-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener" ref="linksrc=article_id_link&article_id=10.1371/journal.pone.0263579&id_type=DOI" href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0263579" data-ga-category="full_text" data-ga-action="DOI" > 10.1371/journal.pone.0263579 </a> </span> </li> </ul> <div class="in-clipboard-label " hidden> Item in Clipboard </div> </div> </div> </header> <div class="actions-buttons inline"><div class="inner-wrap"><button class="full-text-links-button full-text-links-dialog-trigger" title="Open dialog with full text links" ref="linksrc=full_text_links"> Full text links </button><button class="citation-button citation-dialog-trigger" aria-label="Open dialog with citation text in different styles" data-ga-category="save_share" data-ga-action="cite" data-ga-label="open" data-all-citations-url="/36928830/citations/" data-citation-style="nlm" data-pubmed-format-link="/36928830/export/"><span class="button-label">Cite</span></button><button class="more-actions-button more-actions-dialog-trigger" title="Open dialog with more actions to take" ref="linksrc=more_actions_btn"></button><div class="display-options" data-format-key="format" data-default-format-value="abstract" data-current-format-value="abstract" role="region"><button class="trigger usa-button" title="Change format" data-ga-category="display_options" data-ga-action="display_options_dialog"><span class="button-label">Display options</span></button><div class="dropdown" hidden><div class="title"> Display options </div><div class="content"><div class="format-container"><span class="option-label"> Format </span><select name="format" data-initial-value="abstract" aria-label="Display format" id="inline-actions-display-format"><option value="abstract">Abstract</option><option value="pubmed">PubMed</option><option value="pmid">PMID</option></select></div></div></div></div></div></div> <div class="abstract" id="abstract"> <h2 class="title"> Abstract </h2> <div class="abstract-content selected" id="eng-abstract"> <p> <strong class="sub-title"> Background: </strong> Previous research used data through 2008 to estimate a model for the effect of the California Tobacco Control Program (CTCP) that used cumulative real per capita tobacco control expenditure to predict smoking behavior (current adult smoking prevalence and mean cigarette consumption per current smoker). Predicted changes in smoking behavior due to the CTCP were used to predict its effect on health care expenditure. This research updates the model using the most recently available data and estimates CTCP program effect through 2019. </p> <p> <strong class="sub-title"> Methods: </strong> The data used in the previous research were updated, and the original model specification and a related predictive forecast model were re-estimated. The updated regression estimates were compared to those previously published and used to update estimates of CTCP program effect in 2019 dollars. </p> <p> <strong class="sub-title"> Results: </strong> There was no evidence of structural change in the previously estimated model. The estimated effect of the CTCP program expenditures on adult current smoking prevalence and mean consumption per adult current smoker has remained stable over time. Over the life of the program, one additional dollar per capita of program expenditure was associated with a reduction of current adult smoking prevalence by about 0.05 percentage point and mean annual consumption per adult current smoker by about 2 packs. Using updated estimates, the program prevented 9.45 (SE 1.04) million person-years of smoking and cumulative consumption of 15.7 (SE 3.04) billion packs of cigarettes from 1989 to 2019. The program produced cumulative savings in real healthcare expenditure of $544 (SE $82) billion using the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA), and $816 (SE $121) billion using the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) measure of medical costs. During this time, the CTCP expenditure was $3.5 billion. </p> <p> <strong class="sub-title"> Conclusion: </strong> A simple predictive model of the effectiveness of the CTCP program remained stable and retains its predictive performance out-of-sample. The updated estimates of program effect suggest that CTCP program has retained its effectiveness over its 31-year life and produced a return on investment of 231 to 1 in direct CMS medical expenditure. </p> </div> </div> <p class="copyright" id="copyright"> Copyright: © 2023 Lightwood et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. </p> <p class="disclaimer" id="disclaimer"> <a href="/disclaimer/" target="_blank" ga_category="literature_resources" ga_action="disclaimer_link" ga_label="under_abstract">PubMed Disclaimer</a> </p> <div class="conflict-of-interest" id="conflict-of-interest"> <h2 class="title"> Conflict of interest statement </h2> <div class="statement"> <p xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:p1="http://pubmed.gov/pub-one">The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.</p> </div> </div> <div class="figures" id="figures"> <h2 class="title"> Figures </h2> <div class="figures-list" id="slides-container" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageGallery"> <figure class="figure-item " itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemprop="associatedMedia" data-slide-index="0" data-label-slug="fig-1"> <a class="figure-link" href="https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9b67/10019627/f1a99cde0477/pone.0263579.g001.jpg" itemprop="contentUrl" aria-describedby="figure-caption-0" role="button" data-image-width="750" data-image-height="1062" data-image-alt="Fig 1" data-pmc-id="PMC10019627" data-figure-id="pone.0263579.g001"> <img class="figure-thumb" itemprop="thumbnail" id="article-image-0" src="https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9b67/10019627/4c87a8239378/pone.0263579.g001.gif" alt="Fig 1" /> </a> <meta itemprop="width" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" content="750"> <meta itemprop="height" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" content="1062"> <div class="figure-caption figure-caption-text" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemprop="caption" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="caption-wrap"> <strong class="figure-label"> <p> Fig 1. Reductions in smoking attributable to… </p> </strong> </div> </div> <div class="figure-caption-medium figure-caption-text" aria-hidden="true"> <strong class="figure-label"> <p> Fig 1. Reductions in smoking attributable to the CTCP. </p> </strong> <div class="figure-caption-contents"><p> (A) Adult smoking prevalence. (B) Mean… </p></div> </div> <figcaption id="figure-caption-0" class="figure-caption-full figure-caption-text" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemprop="description"> <strong class="figure-label"> Fig 1. Reductions in smoking attributable to the CTCP. </strong> <div class="figure-caption-contents">(A) Adult smoking prevalence. (B) Mean packs per current smoker. Black line: mean; Dotted lines: lower and upper 95% confidence intervals for prediction; Black dots and error bars: point and 95% confidence interval reported in the ECTCP [4] 2013 publication.</div> </figcaption> </figure> <figure class="figure-item " itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemprop="associatedMedia" data-slide-index="1" data-label-slug="fig-2"> <a class="figure-link" href="https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9b67/10019627/cdee0227f4b0/pone.0263579.g002.jpg" itemprop="contentUrl" aria-describedby="figure-caption-1" role="button" data-image-width="750" data-image-height="1063" data-image-alt="Fig 2" data-pmc-id="PMC10019627" data-figure-id="pone.0263579.g002"> <img class="figure-thumb" itemprop="thumbnail" id="article-image-1" src="https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9b67/10019627/476a4bcac5c0/pone.0263579.g002.gif" alt="Fig 2" /> </a> <meta itemprop="width" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" content="750"> <meta itemprop="height" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" content="1063"> <div class="figure-caption figure-caption-text" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemprop="caption" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="caption-wrap"> <strong class="figure-label"> <p> Fig 2. Cumulative reductions in smoking attributable… </p> </strong> </div> </div> <div class="figure-caption-medium figure-caption-text" aria-hidden="true"> <strong class="figure-label"> <p> Fig 2. Cumulative reductions in smoking attributable to the CTCP. </p> </strong> <div class="figure-caption-contents"><p> (A) Person years of smoking.… </p></div> </div> <figcaption id="figure-caption-1" class="figure-caption-full figure-caption-text" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemprop="description"> <strong class="figure-label"> Fig 2. Cumulative reductions in smoking attributable to the CTCP. </strong> <div class="figure-caption-contents">(A) Person years of smoking. (B) Packs of cigarettes. Black line: mean; Dotted lines: lower and upper 95% confidence intervals for prediction; Black dots and error bars: point and 95% confidence interval reported in ECTCP [4] 2013 publication.</div> </figcaption> </figure> <figure class="figure-item " itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemprop="associatedMedia" data-slide-index="2" data-label-slug="fig-3"> <a class="figure-link" href="https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9b67/10019627/313cdb31360e/pone.0263579.g003.jpg" itemprop="contentUrl" aria-describedby="figure-caption-2" role="button" data-image-width="800" data-image-height="568" data-image-alt="Fig 3" data-pmc-id="PMC10019627" data-figure-id="pone.0263579.g003"> <img class="figure-thumb" itemprop="thumbnail" id="article-image-2" src="https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9b67/10019627/aad238177f56/pone.0263579.g003.gif" alt="Fig 3" /> </a> <meta itemprop="width" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" content="800"> <meta itemprop="height" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" content="568"> <div class="figure-caption figure-caption-text" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemprop="caption" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="caption-wrap"> <strong class="figure-label"> <p> Fig 3. Cumulative reductions in value of… </p> </strong> </div> </div> <div class="figure-caption-medium figure-caption-text" aria-hidden="true"> <strong class="figure-label"> <p> Fig 3. Cumulative reductions in value of pre-tax cigarette sales attributable to the CTCP. </p> </strong> <div class="figure-caption-contents"><p> Black… </p></div> </div> <figcaption id="figure-caption-2" class="figure-caption-full figure-caption-text" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemprop="description"> <strong class="figure-label"> Fig 3. Cumulative reductions in value of pre-tax cigarette sales attributable to the CTCP. </strong> <div class="figure-caption-contents">Black line: mean; Dotted lines: lower and upper 95% confidence intervals for prediction; Black dot and error bar: point and 95% confidence interval reported in ECTCP [4] 2013 publication. Note: vertical axes are real 2019 dollars.</div> </figcaption> </figure> <figure class="figure-item " itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemprop="associatedMedia" data-slide-index="3" data-label-slug="fig-4"> <a class="figure-link" href="https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9b67/10019627/f6e5d3efd72b/pone.0263579.g004.jpg" itemprop="contentUrl" aria-describedby="figure-caption-3" role="button" data-image-width="750" data-image-height="1063" data-image-alt="Fig 4" data-pmc-id="PMC10019627" data-figure-id="pone.0263579.g004"> <img class="figure-thumb" itemprop="thumbnail" id="article-image-3" src="https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9b67/10019627/0e48b138a4ad/pone.0263579.g004.gif" alt="Fig 4" /> </a> <meta itemprop="width" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" content="750"> <meta itemprop="height" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" content="1063"> <div class="figure-caption figure-caption-text" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemprop="caption" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="caption-wrap"> <strong class="figure-label"> <p> Fig 4. Annual total savings in real… </p> </strong> </div> </div> <div class="figure-caption-medium figure-caption-text" aria-hidden="true"> <strong class="figure-label"> <p> Fig 4. Annual total savings in real per capita healthcare expenditure attributable to the CTCP. </p> </strong> </div> <figcaption id="figure-caption-3" class="figure-caption-full figure-caption-text" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemprop="description"> <strong class="figure-label"> Fig 4. Annual total savings in real per capita healthcare expenditure attributable to the CTCP. </strong> <div class="figure-caption-contents">(A) CMS measure. (B) NIPA measure. Black line: mean; Dotted lines: lower and upper 95% confidence intervals for prediction. Dashed black line in (A): estimated savings from ECTCP [4]. Note: vertical axes are real 2019 dollars.</div> </figcaption> </figure> <figure class="figure-item " itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemprop="associatedMedia" data-slide-index="4" data-label-slug="fig-5"> <a class="figure-link" href="https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9b67/10019627/95c15543f98c/pone.0263579.g005.jpg" itemprop="contentUrl" aria-describedby="figure-caption-4" role="button" data-image-width="750" data-image-height="1062" data-image-alt="Fig 5" data-pmc-id="PMC10019627" data-figure-id="pone.0263579.g005"> <img class="figure-thumb" itemprop="thumbnail" id="article-image-4" src="https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9b67/10019627/a3eb28e5562b/pone.0263579.g005.gif" alt="Fig 5" /> </a> <meta itemprop="width" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" content="750"> <meta itemprop="height" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" content="1062"> <div class="figure-caption figure-caption-text" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemprop="caption" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="caption-wrap"> <strong class="figure-label"> <p> Fig 5. Cumulative savings in real health… </p> </strong> </div> </div> <div class="figure-caption-medium figure-caption-text" aria-hidden="true"> <strong class="figure-label"> <p> Fig 5. Cumulative savings in real health care expenditure attributable to the CTCP. </p> </strong> <div class="figure-caption-contents"><p> (A) CMS… </p></div> </div> <figcaption id="figure-caption-4" class="figure-caption-full figure-caption-text" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemprop="description"> <strong class="figure-label"> Fig 5. Cumulative savings in real health care expenditure attributable to the CTCP. </strong> <div class="figure-caption-contents">(A) CMS measure. (B) NIPA measure. Black line: mean; Dotted lines: lower and upper 95% confidence intervals for prediction. Dashed black line in (A): estimated savings from ECTCP [4]. 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Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020;117(42):25963–5. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2018002117 - <a class="reference-link" href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2018002117" ref="linksrc=references_link&ordinalpos=1" data-ga-category="reference" data-ga-action="10.1073/pnas.2018002117" > DOI </a> - <a class="reference-link" href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7584988/" ref="linksrc=references_link&ordinalpos=2" data-ga-category="reference" data-ga-action="PMC7584988" > PMC </a> - <a class="reference-link" href="/33046646/" ref="linksrc=references_link&ordinalpos=3" data-ga-category="reference" data-ga-action="33046646" > PubMed </a> </li> </ol> </li> </ol> <div class="actions-bar"> <button class="show-all" ref="linksrc=show_all_references_link" aria-controls="top-references-list-1" data-next-page-url="/36928830/references/" data-ga-category="reference" data-ga-action="show_more" > Show all 33 references </button> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="publication-types" class="publication-types 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Smoking and healthcare expenditure reductions associated with the California Tobacco Control Program, 1989 to 2019: A predictive validation - PubMed