Mysteel解读：原油价格波动与大宗商品相关性及影响-我的钢铁网

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<p><img alt="" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/06/30/145822.png" style="width: 480px; height: 288px;" /></p> <p><img alt="" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/06/30/145837.png" style="width: 480px; height: 288px;" /></p> <p><img alt="" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/06/30/145848.png" style="width: 480px; height: 288px;" /></p> <p>在比较原油与钢材及原料的价格关系时，不难发现，自2020年以来，通胀赫然写在了纸上，以原油为代表的大宗商品迎来了新一轮“牛市”，价格都创了历史新高。经过数据测算，原油与螺纹及热卷的相关性都在0.4以上，与焦煤的相关性为0.29，但这并不意味着原油价格上涨将伴随相关品种同时上涨，原因在于除去通胀因素，原油与黑色系大宗商品还受基本面的影响。与原油的表现不同，2021下半年后，在国家保供稳价和限产的背景下，钢材及原料价格迅速回落。近期也由于国内钢材消费恢复偏慢，成材及原料价格表现较弱。在<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----02-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>有色金属</a>中，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>与原油的相关性达到0.56，而<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝</a>为0.35，原因在于铜与原油更加类似，在国际市场上同时具备金融属性与商品属性。贵金属黄金作为避险资产，与原油的联系不强，相关性仅为0.15。</p> <p><img alt="" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/06/30/145920.png" style="width: 568px; height: 163px;" /></p> <p><strong>二、原油价格上涨对行业影响</strong></p> <p>在探究原油价格上涨对行业的影响时，笔者运用数理模型假设油价上涨100%，对各个行业的影响进行了测算，由于结果较为合理性，此处记录于下，为大家提供一个分析行业现状的思路。</p> <p>（注：鉴于笔者能力有限，文中难免有不足与错误之处，欢迎业内外人士一起交流。）</p> <p><img alt="" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/06/30/150000.png" style="width: 567px; height: 309px;" /></p> <p>从模型测算结果来看，原油上涨100%将直接影响下游石油加工业，影响大小为61.57%，同时对原油有部分替代作用的燃气也受影响较大，涨幅达52.83%。由此可以看出虽然原油被称为“大宗商品之母”，但更多的是针对能源化工领域。对于黑色大宗商品而言，其对油价的上涨反而没那么敏感，根据模型测算，油价上涨对金属冶炼及金属矿采的影响程度分别为8.41%和7.09%，对<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0502-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>煤炭</a>开采的影响程度更小，结果仅为3.06%。对于市场关注的下游行业如建筑业及房地产等，原油价格上涨对其影响亦不明显，结果仅为5.9%和1.11%。从现实角度讲，原油与这些行业的联系并不密切，所以模型结果具有一定的解释性。至于钢价或煤价上涨对于下游行业的影响大小，笔者将会在下篇文章进行简单阐述。</p> <p><strong>三、近期原油价格上涨的一些看法</strong></p> <p>最后，从行业发展角度来讲，原油价格大幅上涨对于产油国来说是不是一定就是好事？短期来看，石油产出大国如沙特等当然会在这段时间内积累大量利润，沙特阿美5月份股价更是一度超过苹果，成为全球市值最大公司。但长期来看，OPEC+组织希望油价的理性区间为60~80美元，在这一水平下能够保持全球对石油的需求，从而持续受益。油价大幅上涨反而会刺激新能源转型，近期欧美对光伏领域就加快了布局，在油价高位回落后，大A的新能源及光伏版块大幅反弹，也侧面验证了这一内在逻辑。伴随着能源领域的结构性改革，石油行业也必将迎来新一轮改革浪潮。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：施发玉 021-26093592 </br> 资讯监督：胡赛男 021-26093781 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-10-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a 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