Short-Term Uncertainties, Constructive Long-Term Outlook

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pb-[calc((134/782)*100%)]"> <div class="cover-img__image-position absolute top-0 right-0 bottom-0 left-0 "> <img class="cover-img__image relative w-full h-full object-cover" src="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D12AQGj-2xBCj2xvg/article-cover_image-shrink_720_1280/article-cover_image-shrink_720_1280/0/1720606830764?e=2147483647&v=beta&t=IBwDHRFOEGScfGQKvFxcaflsKnVLM_9ACj781pwu2wY" fetchpriority="high" data-embed-id="cover-image" alt="Short-Term Uncertainties, Constructive Long-Term Outlook"> </div> </div>  </figure> <header> <section class="core-section-container relative my-3"> <h1 class="pulse-title text-display-md text-color-text lg:text-display-lg font-bold w-11/12">Short-Term Uncertainties, Constructive Long-Term Outlook</h1> <div class="ellipsis-menu absolute right-0 top-0"> <div class="collapsible-dropdown flex items-center relative hyphens-auto"> <button class="ellipsis-menu__trigger collapsible-dropdown__button btn-md btn-tertiary cursor-pointer !py-[6px] !px-1 flex 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relative w-full hover:no-underline focus:no-underline base-card--link base-main-card flex flex-wrap py-2 pr-2 babybear:pr-0 base-main-card--link publisher-author-card"> <a class="base-card__full-link absolute top-0 right-0 bottom-0 left-0 p-0 z-[2]" href="https://ch.linkedin.com/company/edmond-de-rothschild" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_publisher-author-card" data-tracking-will-navigate> <span class="sr-only"> Edmond de Rothschild </span> </a> <img class="inline-block relative w-6 h-6 " data-delayed-url="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/C4E0BAQF3Nr5XjmUVhw/company-logo_100_100/company-logo_100_100/0/1630645663245/edmond_de_rothschild_logo?e=2147483647&v=beta&t=q-HjczazV0pUwcXRNYFHuODLpuUEHkJDCp8pEzO_1WU" data-ghost-classes="bg-color-entity-ghost-background" data-ghost-url="https://static.licdn.com/aero-v1/sc/h/cs8pjfgyw96g44ln9r7tct85f" alt="Edmond de Rothschild"> <div class="base-main-card__info self-center ml-1 flex-1 relative break-words papabear:min-w-0 mamabear:min-w-0 babybear:w-full ">  <h3 class="base-main-card__title font-sans text-[18px] font-bold text-color-text overflow-hidden "> Edmond de Rothschild </h3> <h4 class="base-main-card__subtitle body-text text-color-text overflow-hidden "> We never forget that you entrust us with what you hold most precious. </h4>  <div class="body-text text-color-text-low-emphasis base-main-card__metadata"> Published Jul 10, 2024 </div>  </div> <div class="base-main-card__ctas z-[3] self-center ml-3 babybear:ml-1 babybear:self-start"> <a class="base-main-card__cta btn-sm btn-secondary" href="https://www.linkedin.com/signup/cold-join?session_redirect=%2Fpulse%2Fshort-term-uncertainties-constructive-long-term-outlook-zumlf%3Ftrk%3Darticle-ssr-frontend-pulse_more-articles_related-content-card&trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_publisher-author-card" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_publisher-author-card" data-tracking-will-navigate> + Follow </a> </div> </div> </div> </section> </header> <div data-test-id="article-content-blocks">  <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <p> <span class="font-[700]">The US earnings season kicks off in a few days' time, with expectations that earnings releases and forecasts will be as strong as those published in the previous quarter. The markets are expecting strong corporate earnings growth of 13% year-on-year. This will be a welcome break, allowing investors to separate themselves somewhat from economic releases, the impacts of inflation and the long-awaited rate cuts.</span> </p> </div>  <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <p> <span class>The real uncertainty in this second half of the year is political. France does not yet have any government prospects (coalition in the centre, government of experts, etc.) at the time of writing, but the trend is clear: the economic programmes presented by the various parties do not suggest any possibility of reducing the current deficits, and augur a high level of uncertainty, a source of volatility for both interest rates and equity markets. After soaring to over 85bps, the spread between French and German government bonds has narrowed to 65bps, although this does not rule out the threat of a second downgrade of France's credit rating by the rating agencies. As for the CAC 40, it is still 4% below its level since the announcement of the dissolution of the National Assembly on 9 June, even though the proportion of revenue generated in France by its members is less than 15%.</span> </p> </div>  <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <p> <span class>Given the low valuation of some French and European equities, it is not impossible that the European market will do well in the second half of the year.</span> </p> </div>  <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <p> <span class>Across the Atlantic, market performance remained heavily concentrated in the technology and communications sectors. Only 5 of the 11 sectors in the S&P500 delivered a positive performance during the second quarter. The volatility of the US market, which is close to historic lows despite political, geopolitical, economic and monetary uncertainties, is bound to increase significantly. The first debate between the two potential presidential candidates has also ushered in a period of doubt for the United States. Nonetheless, US equities still have excellent potential, particularly in certain sectors that were neglected during the second quarter, such as energy, materials, industrials and consumer staples. The latest economic publications, which point to a slowdown in growth in the United States, open the door to the Fed's famous "pivot" and increase the likelihood of a first 25bps rate cut as early as September.</span> </p> </div>  <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <p> <span class>Emerging markets, meanwhile, could benefit from these US and European uncertainties thanks to their reasonable valuations.</span> </p> </div>  <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <p> <span class>Despite the geopolitical tensions, the volume of world trade has returned to pre-covid levels. However, it is interesting to note that the flow of Chinese exports, which used to be directed mainly towards Europe and the United States, seems to have shifted somewhat towards other geographical areas such as Asia and Africa. This is a good illustration of what is now known as 'friend shoring'. The prospect of rate cuts in the United States is also a catalyst for positive stock market performance in emerging markets.</span> </p> </div> <div class="inline-articles bg-color-surface-new border-hidden rounded-sm p-1 mx-auto my-1.5 mamabear:w-2/3 inline-articles__after"> <h2 class="text-xl font-medium ml-1.5 my-1 text-color-text mamabear:text-center">Recommended by LinkedIn</h2> <div class="flex flex-wrap mx-0.5 babybear:mx-1.5"> <div class="content-author-card flex flex-col max-w-[270px] h-auto rounded-md border-1 border-system-gray-30 border-solid pb-1.5 inline-article mx-auto my-1 border-hidden papabear:w-[219px] babybear:min-w-full mamabear:min-w-full h-auto bg-color-canvas-tint"> <a class="no-underline" data-tracking-control-name="inline-recommended-articles" data-tracking-will-navigate href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/4-themes-shaping-our-outlook-2022-s%C3%A9bastien-page"> <img class="content-image w-full h-[150px] bg-cover rounded-t-md object-cover" data-delayed-url="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/C5612AQHACABmK795MQ/article-cover_image-shrink_600_2000/article-cover_image-shrink_600_2000/0/1640141897505?e=2147483647&v=beta&t=2HrFeog61cLc_hJh6xn8K3Vzm6pfLmOcl0Ak6JgfGjE"> <div class="inline-article-title text-md text-color-text font-bold pl-2 pt-1 pr-1.5">4 Themes Shaping Our Outlook for 2022</div> <div class="inline-article-meta px-2 mt-1 font-sans text-xs font-normal text-color-text-low-emphasis h-full"> <span class="inline-article-author pt-0.5"> Sébastien Page </span> <span class="before:middot pt-0.5 inline-article-published-date"> 2 years ago </span> </div> </a>  </div> <div class="content-author-card flex flex-col max-w-[270px] h-auto rounded-md border-1 border-system-gray-30 border-solid pb-1.5 inline-article mx-auto my-1 border-hidden papabear:w-[219px] babybear:min-w-full mamabear:min-w-full h-auto bg-color-canvas-tint"> <a class="no-underline" data-tracking-control-name="inline-recommended-articles" data-tracking-will-navigate href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/tpp-strategy-month-active-strategies-reign-supreme-lane-clark-mlfoe"> <img class="content-image w-full h-[150px] bg-cover rounded-t-md object-cover" data-delayed-url="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E12AQGyrzFopgewJQ/article-cover_image-shrink_720_1280/article-cover_image-shrink_720_1280/0/1730821148011?e=2147483647&v=beta&t=7Y2QrWEtlUQhf_axCLIfgNxBRYLCCyF1OIzUfHO9Q4Y"> <div class="inline-article-title text-md text-color-text font-bold pl-2 pt-1 pr-1.5">The TPP strategy of the month. The active strategies…</div> <div class="inline-article-meta px-2 mt-1 font-sans text-xs font-normal text-color-text-low-emphasis h-full"> <span class="inline-article-author pt-0.5"> Lane Clark </span> <span class="before:middot pt-0.5 inline-article-published-date"> 2 weeks ago </span> </div> </a>  </div> <div class="content-author-card flex flex-col max-w-[270px] h-auto rounded-md border-1 border-system-gray-30 border-solid pb-1.5 inline-article mx-auto my-1 border-hidden papabear:w-[219px] babybear:min-w-full mamabear:min-w-full h-auto bg-color-canvas-tint"> <a class="no-underline" data-tracking-control-name="inline-recommended-articles" data-tracking-will-navigate href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/byron-wien-joe-zidles-ten-surprises-2020-joseph-zidle"> <img class="content-image w-full h-[150px] bg-cover rounded-t-md object-cover" data-delayed-url="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/C4D12AQGW9yn3r6lt7A/article-cover_image-shrink_720_1280/article-cover_image-shrink_720_1280/0/1578590086494?e=2147483647&v=beta&t=p_pJgQqkhEOOInWwoiwcYuh-Siv8JggSyFfK_bJVe58"> <div class="inline-article-title text-md text-color-text font-bold pl-2 pt-1 pr-1.5">Byron Wien and Joe Zidle's Ten Surprises of 2020</div> <div class="inline-article-meta px-2 mt-1 font-sans text-xs font-normal text-color-text-low-emphasis h-full"> <span class="inline-article-author pt-0.5"> Joseph Zidle </span> <span class="before:middot pt-0.5 inline-article-published-date"> 4 years ago </span> </div> </a>  </div> </div> </div>  <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <p> <span class>At the same time, the de-globalisation and reshoring movement initiated under Trump and then accelerated during the pandemic will continue to transform government policies, which for a long time were geared towards supporting demand through massive consumer support. The rise of protectionism, the hardening of economic relations and the emergence of two very distinct blocs threatening American or Western hegemony are likely to favour policies that are more focused on supply and support for production in many strategic areas.</span> </p> </div>  <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <p> <span class>In the medium term, investment flows are likely to be redirected towards the defence, cybersecurity and semiconductor sectors, as well as towards sectors that help to secure energy supplies, foodstuffs and medicines. These sectors are also more resilient in the face of structurally higher inflation, which is likely to be fuelled by the cost of the energy transition, the relocation of industries, and rising labour costs.</span> </p> </div>  <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <p> <span class>Markets have the ability to extract value from periods of uncertainty, which often also turn out to be sources of opportunity. The technology sector, although currently very expensive, remains the spearhead of an American economy that has left the field open to China in industries with lower technological value, such as car production. However, many other sectors will benefit from the changes in the global economic and geopolitical landscape. Selectivity will therefore remain the watchword in the months ahead on equity markets that still have good growth potential.</span> </p> </div>  <hr data-test-id="publishing-divider-block" class="my-[3.2rem] mx-auto h-[1px] border-0 bg-black-a16">  <div class="flex flex-col mt-2" data-test-id="publishing-image-block" rel="ugc"> <figure> <img class="lazy-load block w-full" data-delayed-url="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D12AQHKl8g_hpHc8g/article-inline_image-shrink_400_744/article-inline_image-shrink_400_744/0/1720614559776?e=2147483647&v=beta&t=R6ctssyOBtT0F9GfZkaFWbzRMyZbMBCbl_RMB4K6KDI">  </figure> </div>  <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <p> <span class="font-[700]">Nicolas Bickel | Group Head of Investment Private Banking</span> </p> </div>  </div>   </article> <div class="base-card relative w-full hover:no-underline focus:no-underline base-card--link base-main-card flex flex-wrap py-2 pr-2 babybear:pr-0 base-main-card--link 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href="/uas/login?session_redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.linkedin.com%2Fpulse%2Fshort-term-uncertainties-constructive-long-term-outlook-zumlf&trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_ellipsis-menu-semaphore-sign-in-redirect&guestReportContentType=COMMENT&_f=guest-reporting" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_ellipsis-menu-semaphore-sign-in-redirect" data-tracking-will-navigate data-item-type="semaphore" data-semaphore-content-type="COMMENT" data-semaphore-content-urn="urn:li:comment:(urn:li:ugcPost:7216750215809146880,7220128282900357120)" data-semaphore-tracking-prefix="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_ellipsis-menu-semaphore" data-is-logged-in="false" data-modal="semaphore__toggle" class="semaphore__toggle visited:text-color-text-secondary ellipsis-menu__semaphore ellipsis-menu__item-button flex items-center w-full p-1 cursor-pointer font-sans text-sm font-bold link-styled focus:link-styled link:no-underline active:bg-color-background-container-tint focus:bg-color-background-container-tint hover:bg-color-background-container-tint outline-offset-[-2px]">  <icon class="ellipsis-menu__item-icon text-color-text h-[24px] w-[24px] mr-1" data-delayed-url="https://static.licdn.com/aero-v1/sc/h/iq0x9q37wj214o129ai1yjut"> </icon> Report this comment </a>  </li>  </ul>  </div> </div> </div> <div class="attributed-text-segment-list__container relative mt-1 mb-1.5 babybear:mt-0 babybear:mb-0.5"> <p class="attributed-text-segment-list__content text-color-text !text-sm whitespace-pre-wrap break-words comment__text babybear:mt-0.5" dir="ltr">Highly anticipating outlook for the second half of the year! Now, let's see if European equities have a constructive growth. Also, emerging market development 💯 Thanks 👍🏼 <a class="link" href="https://ch.linkedin.com/company/edmond-de-rothschild?trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment-text" target="_self" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment-text" data-tracking-will-navigate>Edmond de Rothschild</a> </p>  </div>   </div> <div class="comment__actions flex flex-row flex-wrap items-center ml-2" aria-label="Comment Controls"> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/signup/cold-join?session_redirect=%2Fpulse%2Fshort-term-uncertainties-constructive-long-term-outlook-zumlf%3Ftrk%3Darticle-ssr-frontend-pulse_more-articles_related-content-card&trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_like" class="comment__action inline-block font-sans text-xs text-color-text-low-emphasis cursor-pointer" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_like" 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data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_actor-image" data-tracking-will-navigate> <img class="inline-block relative rounded-[50%] w-4 h-4 bg-color-entity-ghost-background" data-delayed-url="https://static.licdn.com/aero-v1/sc/h/9c8pery4andzj6ohjkjp54ma2" data-ghost-classes="bg-color-entity-ghost-background" data-ghost-url="https://static.licdn.com/aero-v1/sc/h/9c8pery4andzj6ohjkjp54ma2" alt="Francois Pineau"> </a> </div> <div class="w-full min-w-0"> <div class="comment__body ml-0.5 mb-1 pt-1 pr-1.5 pb-1 pl-1.5 rounded-[8px] rounded-tl-none relative"> <div class="comment__header flex flex-col"> <a class="text-sm link-styled no-underline leading-open comment__author truncate pr-6" href="https://fr.linkedin.com/in/francois-pineau-b1477625?trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_actor-name" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_actor-name" data-tracking-will-navigate> Francois Pineau </a> <p class="!text-xs text-color-text-low-emphasis leading-[1.33333] mb-0.5 truncate comment__author-headline">Conseil aux entreprises et Management de transition</p> <span class="text-xs text-color-text-low-emphasis comment__duration-since absolute right-6 top-1 inline-block"> 4mo </span> <div class="ellipsis-menu absolute right-0 top-0 !mr-0.5 babybear:!-top-0.5" data-test-id="comment__ellipsis-menu" data-feed-action="show-comment-dropdown"> <div class="collapsible-dropdown flex items-center relative hyphens-auto"> <button class="ellipsis-menu__trigger collapsible-dropdown__button btn-md btn-tertiary cursor-pointer !py-[6px] !px-1 flex items-center rounded-[50%] ellipsis-menu__trigger--small w-[32px] h-[32px] babybear:rotate-90 mamabear:!h-4 mamabear:!min-h-[32px] papabear:!h-4 papabear:!min-h-[32px]" aria-expanded="false" aria-label="Open menu" 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data-delayed-url="https://static.licdn.com/aero-v1/sc/h/iq0x9q37wj214o129ai1yjut"> </icon> Report this comment </a>  </li>  </ul>  </div> </div> </div> <div class="attributed-text-segment-list__container relative mt-1 mb-1.5 babybear:mt-0 babybear:mb-0.5"> <p class="attributed-text-segment-list__content text-color-text !text-sm whitespace-pre-wrap break-words comment__text babybear:mt-0.5" dir="ltr">Good summary of current situation and expectation, with USA and mainly tech Co. still exceeding expectation in term of profitability. Hence the PE ratio of this sector is still far away from the previous tech bubble in 2000, as far as I understand. Still, I miss your view on Japanese stocks that have strongly performed as expected this year. Any thought ? </p>  </div>   </div> <div class="comment__actions flex flex-row flex-wrap items-center ml-2" aria-label="Comment Controls"> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/signup/cold-join?session_redirect=%2Fpulse%2Fshort-term-uncertainties-constructive-long-term-outlook-zumlf%3Ftrk%3Darticle-ssr-frontend-pulse_more-articles_related-content-card&trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_like" class="comment__action inline-block font-sans text-xs text-color-text-low-emphasis cursor-pointer" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_like" data-tracking-will-navigate> <div class="flex flex-row items-center "> <icon class="action-btn__icon w-2 mr-0.5" data-svg-class-name="action-btn__icon--svg" data-delayed-url="https://static.licdn.com/aero-v1/sc/h/70k0g8kmgdfjjymflqqzipzxj"> </icon> <span class="action-btn__button-text inline-block align-baseline"> Like </span> </div> </a> <span class="before:middot 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data-ghost-url="https://static.licdn.com/aero-v1/sc/h/9c8pery4andzj6ohjkjp54ma2" alt="Ömer Sucu"> </a> </div> <div class="w-full min-w-0"> <div class="comment__body ml-0.5 mb-1 pt-1 pr-1.5 pb-1 pl-1.5 rounded-[8px] rounded-tl-none relative"> <div class="comment__header flex flex-col"> <a class="text-sm link-styled no-underline leading-open comment__author truncate pr-6" href="https://de.linkedin.com/in/%C3%B6mer-sucu-3b6428176?trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_actor-name" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_actor-name" data-tracking-will-navigate> Ömer Sucu </a> <p class="!text-xs text-color-text-low-emphasis leading-[1.33333] mb-0.5 truncate comment__author-headline">Dachs Sports Football chief scout und spielerberater & Scout Players</p> <span class="text-xs text-color-text-low-emphasis comment__duration-since absolute right-6 top-1 inline-block"> 4mo </span> <div class="ellipsis-menu 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tabindex="-1"> <li class="ellipsis-menu__item border-t-1 border-solid border-color-border-low-emphasis first-of-type:border-none flex"> <a href="/uas/login?session_redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.linkedin.com%2Fpulse%2Fshort-term-uncertainties-constructive-long-term-outlook-zumlf&trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_ellipsis-menu-semaphore-sign-in-redirect&guestReportContentType=COMMENT&_f=guest-reporting" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_ellipsis-menu-semaphore-sign-in-redirect" data-tracking-will-navigate data-item-type="semaphore" data-semaphore-content-type="COMMENT" data-semaphore-content-urn="urn:li:comment:(urn:li:ugcPost:7216750215809146880,7216768141807259649)" data-semaphore-tracking-prefix="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_ellipsis-menu-semaphore" data-is-logged-in="false" data-modal="semaphore__toggle" class="semaphore__toggle visited:text-color-text-secondary ellipsis-menu__semaphore ellipsis-menu__item-button flex items-center w-full p-1 cursor-pointer font-sans text-sm font-bold link-styled focus:link-styled link:no-underline active:bg-color-background-container-tint focus:bg-color-background-container-tint hover:bg-color-background-container-tint outline-offset-[-2px]">  <icon class="ellipsis-menu__item-icon text-color-text h-[24px] w-[24px] mr-1" data-delayed-url="https://static.licdn.com/aero-v1/sc/h/iq0x9q37wj214o129ai1yjut"> </icon> Report this comment </a>  </li>  </ul>  </div> </div> </div> <div class="attributed-text-segment-list__container relative mt-1 mb-1.5 babybear:mt-0 babybear:mb-0.5"> <p class="attributed-text-segment-list__content text-color-text !text-sm whitespace-pre-wrap break-words comment__text babybear:mt-0.5" dir="ltr">Hello, I'm the Ömer from Nuremberg, I'm looking for an investor for my project </p>  </div>   </div> <div class="comment__actions flex flex-row flex-wrap items-center ml-2" aria-label="Comment Controls"> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/signup/cold-join?session_redirect=%2Fpulse%2Fshort-term-uncertainties-constructive-long-term-outlook-zumlf%3Ftrk%3Darticle-ssr-frontend-pulse_more-articles_related-content-card&trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_like" class="comment__action inline-block font-sans text-xs text-color-text-low-emphasis cursor-pointer" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_like" data-tracking-will-navigate> <div class="flex flex-row items-center "> <icon class="action-btn__icon w-2 mr-0.5" data-svg-class-name="action-btn__icon--svg" data-delayed-url="https://static.licdn.com/aero-v1/sc/h/70k0g8kmgdfjjymflqqzipzxj"> </icon> <span class="action-btn__button-text inline-block align-baseline"> Like </span> </div> </a> <span class="before:middot font-sans text-s text-color-text-low-emphasis"></span> <a 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