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Mysteel周报:铜价冲高回落下游逢低补库 升水上扬市场成交有限(7.31-8.4)-我的钢铁网

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<div id="text"> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>一、</span></span></strong><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>市场预测</span></span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;" align="justify"><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>从宏观上看,当前市场宏观情绪尚在延续,尤其是国内市场整体期待值较高;下周多位美联储官员将公开发言,于此同时</span><span>7月CPI也将发布,通胀数据对于后续美联储加息决定影响较大。基本面上,库存的去库趋势放缓,但局部市场的现货流通略显紧张的局面可能不会有明显改善;另外市场认为8月有一定的进口到港,但从近期进口倒挂表现来看,进口量直接补充国内现货市场的可能性较低;需求端尚处于较低迷的状态,缺少直接的亮眼表现,且<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----020105-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>废铜</a>的替代效应仍在延续。整体来看,当前市场的积极情绪依然对价格有提振表现,基本面的表现也更利好<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜价</a>的高位运行,预计下周延续高位震荡表现,其运行区间在68700-71200元/吨,连续上涨的趋势依然较难,需要提防下周美联储官员的言论是否会引发市场超预期的表现。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;" align="justify"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>表</span><span>-1 <a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----020101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>电解铜</a>一周价格</span></span></strong></p> <table style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; text-align: justify;" border="1" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="width: 56.9500pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="top" width="75"> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: center;" align="center"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;">&nbsp;</span></strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 54.0000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="top" width="72"> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: center;" align="center"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>7.31</span></span></strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 53.2500pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="top" width="71"> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: center;" align="center"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>8.1</span></span></strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 53.2500pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="top" width="71"> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: center;" align="center"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>8.2</span></span></strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="top" width="66"> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-indent: 0pt; text-align: center;" align="center"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>8.3</span></span></strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="top" width="66"> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-indent: 0pt; text-align: center;" align="center"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>8.4</span></span></strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="top" width="66"> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-indent: 0pt; text-align: center;" align="center"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>周均价</span></span></strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="top" width="66"> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-indent: 0pt; text-align: center;" align="center"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>涨跌</span></span></strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 16.6000pt;"> <td style="width: 56.9500pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="top" width="75"> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: center;" align="center"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>上海市场</span></span></strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 54.0000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="72"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>69855</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 53.2500pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="71"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>69405</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 53.2500pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="71"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>70055</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="66"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>70920</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="66"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>69800</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="66"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>70007</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="66"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>1001</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 56.9500pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="top" width="75"> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: center;" align="center"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>佛山市场</span></span></strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 54.0000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="72"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>69660</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 53.2500pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="71"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>69140</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 53.2500pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="71"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>69870</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="66"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>70830</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="66"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>69650</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="66"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>69830</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="66"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>888</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 56.9500pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="top" width="75"> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: center;" align="center"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>天津市场</span></span></strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 54.0000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="72"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>69660</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 53.2500pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="71"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>69260</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 53.2500pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="71"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>69920</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="66"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>70800</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="66"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>69670</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="66"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>69862</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="66"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>868</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.2500pt;"> <td style="width: 56.9500pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="top" width="75"> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: center;" align="center"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>重庆市场</span></span></strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 54.0000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="72"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>69820</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 53.2500pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="71"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>69280</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 53.2500pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="71"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>69975</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="66"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>71000</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="66"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>69780</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="66"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>69971</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="66"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>891</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 56.9500pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="top" width="75"> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: center;" align="center"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>鹰潭市场</span></span></strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 54.0000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="72"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>69760</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 53.2500pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="71"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>69360</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 53.2500pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="71"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>69970</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="66"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>70840</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="66"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>69710</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="66"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>69928</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 50.1000pt; padding: 0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt; border-left: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-right: 1.0000pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; border-bottom: 1.0000pt solid windowtext;" valign="center" width="66"> <p style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="center"><span style="color: #000000; font-style: normal;"><span>930</span></span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>二、市场成交</span></span></strong></p> <p style="text-align: justify; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="justify"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>上海市场</span></span></strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>:本周上海市场地区到货量依旧偏少,由于进口亏损仍难以支撑进口<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>大量清关流入,且因前期进口比价修复下,加上金华、宁波地区补贴因素,周末有部分进口铜转移至该地区进口,加之华东地区部分冶炼厂仍有所出口,国产到货也较为有限,上海地区库存因此继续表现去库。本周下游市场消费依旧未有明显起色,一方面因为铜价高位震荡,周内甚至一度冲高至</span><span>71000元/吨,下游畏高情绪加剧,采购积极性较差。另一方面,传统淡季下,部分加工企业反馈新增订单较少,因此补库意愿低迷,更多体现为铜价回调下的,逢低刚需接货为主。本周盘面偏强震荡,截止周五收盘08合约收于69490元/吨,上海1#电解铜价格69865元/吨,较上周五上涨855元/吨;现货升水先抑后扬,周尾市场成交重心走高至升240元/吨附近。周初由于铜价持续冲高,下游畏高情绪明显,消费疲软致使现货升水承压走低至升80~升130元/吨附近,但市场表现逢低收货情绪,加之流通现货偏少,成交表现积极,升水止跌回升;后半周随着盘面连续回调,且市场现货偏紧局面难改,升水大幅上扬至升250~升300元/吨,虽周尾铜价止跌回升,但现货升水下调幅度有限。本周宏观方面数据给予铜价一定压力,周内小非农数据远超预期,美元指数走强致使铜价冲高回落,且下游消费仍表现疲软,市场需求不佳,但国内库存依旧处于低位运行,下方仍有一定支撑,短期预计仍维持67500~71000元/吨震荡。现货升水方面,因本周台风影响,下周有部分进口铜集中到港,加之了解到非洲进口铜下周也有所流入,市场到货将有所改善,且目前近月合约BACK结构走扩,料现货流通增加情况下,升水将表现承压。</span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="justify"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>上海洋山港现货市场</span></span></strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>:上海洋山港现货市场仓单和提单溢价停止下跌,沪伦比值呈现向好发展,进口盈亏减少,进口货物由于不可抗力流入较少,市场报价水涨船高;截止本周五仓单升水</span><span>25~35美元/吨,均价30美元/吨,环比基本持平;现货提单升水27~37美元/吨,均价32美元/吨,较上周基本持平。</span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="justify"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>佛山市场:</span></span></strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>广东市场电解铜现货库存结束下降,小幅表现回升。铜价走高抑制下游消费,市场需求转弱,市场现货成交大都在贴水。本周广东市场成交表现一般。近期宏观利好提振铜价,铜价冲高后回落。据贸易商反馈,部分铜杆厂停工,加之近期铜价上涨,下游畏高采买热情不高,因此需求较差。市场现货升贴水维持在平水左右运行,铜价回落时市场成交稍有好转,但整体消费依旧偏差。本周下游需求较为一般,宏观利好提振铜价,铜价冲高后回落维持震荡运行。但终端市场消费低迷,下游畏高情绪浓厚,市场参与者大都谨慎观望,若后续情况不及预期,铜价有下行的可能。目前铜价居于高位,当前多以耗库为主,采购基本维持长单稳定提货、零单逢低采购的状态。持货商方面,由于市场供应较充足,加之下游需求平平,预计将保持贴水出货。库存回升,下游需求未见提振,因此在供强需弱背景下,预计下周下游仍然保持谨慎观望态度,市场成交难有较大改善。</span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="justify"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>天津市场:</span></span></strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>本周天津市场价格随盘面价格大幅波动,一度来到</span><span>70500元/吨关键点位,周四价格开始反弹,市场报价围绕升水100元附近徘徊,截止到周五,天津市场价格为69660元/吨,较上周涨幅较小。受制于赤峰云铜检修影响近一万吨产量,发往天津市场的货源偏少,天津市场整体供应比较紧张,现货维持升水报价,近期华北地区暴雨,从山东市场发往华北市场的货物小幅下降,加上港口作业不畅通,市场可流通货源较少。本周天津市场库存维持0.01万吨,较上周持平。铜价震荡上行,市场成交难以好转。从而市场库存继续处于相对低位。宏观利好提振铜价震荡上行,下游订单量偏少,企业场内库存偏少,所需原料不多,看空情绪比较浓厚,等待价格下跌后进行交易,反馈到盘面,下周盘面价格或迎来下跌行情。</span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="justify"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>重庆市场:</span></span></strong>本周重庆市场电解铜价格呈现先扬后抑的走势,但整体价格维持上行,截止本周五电解铜均价报69820元/吨,较上周五均价上涨830元/吨,环比上涨。从供需来看,周初由于月末整体流通现货偏少,而时间来到下半周后,成都、重庆社库库存开始增加,市场流通现货趋向充裕,但升贴水整体维持在100元/吨上方;从需求来看,周内铜价先扬后抑,但即使在大跌过后,铜价依旧处于偏高位置,下游铜厂买兴欠佳,多以按需采购为主,交易时段期间的询盘问价同样积极性欠佳,成交表现较为一般。后市来看,由于月初重庆市场电解铜库存有所回升,但随着月初长单提货增多,近期内库存将在在一定时间后再次回落至此前常规的低库存水平;同时,目前市场对铜价普遍存在看跌情绪,认为铜价将继续回落,若铜价有望回落至67000元/吨附近,区域消费或将出现较为明显的回升,而升贴水在短期消费表现不佳的情况下或将继续维持在100-200元/吨区间。</p> <p style="text-align: justify; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="justify"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>三、电解铜库存变化分析</span></span></strong></p> <p style="text-align: justify; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="justify"><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>本周(</span><span>7.27~8.03)国内市场电解铜现货库存9.92万吨,较27日降0.30万吨,较31日增0.18万吨;本周上海市场电解铜现货库存继续下降。市场到货量较少仍是主因,周内铜价冲高回落,且现货升水持续上扬,下游采购情绪未有明显回升,更多逢低接货为主。广东市场电解铜现货库存结束下降,小幅表现回升。铜价走高抑制下游消费,市场需求转弱,从周内广东市场现货一度贴水60元/吨亦可反应。本周上海、广东两地保税区电解铜现货库存累计6.81万吨,较27日增0.56万吨,较31日增0.27万吨;进口亏损依旧,加之前期部分炼厂出口入库,保税区库存继续增加。</span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="justify"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>四、电解铜周度产量分析</span></span></strong></p> <p style="text-align: justify; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="justify"><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>本周(</span><span>7.27~8.3)国内电解铜产量23.40万吨,环比增加0.3万吨;本周产量增加主因有赤峰冶炼企业检修完成恢复生产,但大冶等部分冶炼企业仍在检修,其他冶炼企业仍维持正常高产。因此本周铜产量增加。国内铜冶炼企业电解铜成品库存5.90万吨,环比增加0.40万吨;本周铜价高位震荡上行,下游企业拿货情绪不高,市场整体消费依旧较差。因此冶炼企业出货减少,成品库存增加。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;" align="justify"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>五、市场总结</span></span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0pt; padding: 0pt; text-align: justify; background: #ffffff;" align="justify"><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>本周铜价延续高位震荡,整体运行于69000~71000元/吨,周内冲高回落,市场现货成交表现不一。铜价走高对于下游消费抑制明显,市场仍持谨慎观望态度,采购情绪表现疲软,且后续回调阶段,下游并未表现过多补库积极性,看空情绪有所回升。 </span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;" align="justify"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>六、一周热点</span></span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0pt; padding: 0pt; text-align: justify; background: #ffffff;" align="justify"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>1.统计局:上半年全国分省市铜材产量出炉,江西增3.15% &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0pt; padding: 0pt; text-align: justify; background: #ffffff;" align="justify"><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>国家统计局最新数据显示,</span><span>2023年1-6月中国铜材累计产量1081.4万吨,同比增长6.8%。其中,产量排名前三的省份分别是江西、江苏和广东,江西铜材产量同比增长3.15%。</span></span></p> <ul style="margin-top: 0.0000pt; margin-bottom: 0.0000pt;"> <li class="p" style="margin-top: 0.0000pt; margin-right: 0.0000pt; margin-bottom: 0.0000pt; padding: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; background: #ffffff;"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>乘联会:</span><span>7月份,新能源车市场零售64.7万辆,同比增长33%下降 </span></span></strong></li> </ul> <p style="margin: 0pt; padding: 0pt; text-align: justify; background: #ffffff;" align="justify"><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>初步统计,</span><span>7月1-31日,新能源车市场零售64.7万辆,同比增长33%,环比下降3%。今年以来累计零售373.3万辆,同比增长37%;全国乘用车厂商新能源批发75.5万辆,同比增长34%,环比下降1%。今年以来累计批发429.9万辆,同比增长42%。</span></span></p> <ul style="margin-top: 0.0000pt; margin-bottom: 0.0000pt;"> <li class="p" style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0px; padding: 0pt; text-align: justify; background: #ffffff;"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>7月下旬<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----02-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>有色金属</a>价格普涨</span></span></strong></li> </ul> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span class="15" style="color: #000000; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;"><span>据对全国流通领域</span><span>9大类50种重要生产资料市场价格的监测显示,2023年7月下旬与7月中旬相比,39种产品价格上涨,7种下降,4种持平。其中有色金属、黑色金属价格普涨,生猪(外三元)价格环比涨8.6%至15.1元/千克。</span></span></p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑:李秋霞 021-26096705 </br> 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